TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII:


Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

---

Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist

[mastersuperfan]

Role PMs:

Each role PM features two components: one for the role, and one for whether you also wield the power of one of the seers.

Human

You are a Human with a normal body temperature of 98.6 °F (37 °C). You do not know why, but your community is being targeted by wolves. Hunt the beasts down... before they get you first.

[close]

Fire Wolf

Scorching flames lap at your feet... You are Arcanine, the Fire Wolf. The places you once used to live in have been destroyed to make way for human civilization. You are used to the sensation of running far across the lands... but now, there is nowhere left to run. It is time to fight back and protect your home.

Each night (including N1), you may choose one living player to burn. That player will permanently lose half their vote and will not be notified. At any point, if they are also chilled by the Ice Wolf, they will die.

Each night starting from N2, you may also choose one living player to paint red. They will be seered red by the Fire Seer for that night only.

[close]

Ice Wolf

Shimmering crystals flutter around you... You are Ninetales, the Ice Wolf. For centuries, you have watched from your mountaintop as wild territories have been trampled, bulldozed, and obliterated to build human cities. And you are not an animal known for your forgiveness. It is time to exact revenge for your fallen friends.

Each night (including N1), you may choose one living player to chill. That player will permanently lose half their vote and will not be notified. At any point, if they are also burned by the Fire Wolf, they will die.

Each night starting from N2, you may also choose one living player to paint blue. They will be seered blue by the Ice Seer for that night only.

[close]

No seering role

You have not been chosen to wield any spiritual powers.

[close]

Fire Seer

You have also been bestowed the power of Sear, the Fire Seer. Each night starting from N2, you may choose one living player to seer. They will return red if they either (a) are the Fire Wolf or (b) were painted by the Fire Wolf that night, and green otherwise.

[close]

Ice Seer

You have also been bestowed the power of Icier, the Ice Seer. Each night starting from N2, you may choose one living player to seer. They will return blue if they either (a) are the Ice Wolf or (b) were painted by the Ice Wolf that night, and green otherwise.

[close]

A few reminders as the game begins:
- In-thread and forum PM communication is allowed during all phases for all living players. Please remember to cc me on all PMs. If you forget for any reason, forward them to me.
- You can change your night actions before night phase end; I will use the action from the last PM you sent me.
- Editing posts is strictly forbidden.
- You may not use Who's Online information for in-game reasoning. I suggest turning your online status invisible so others will not accidentally see your forum actions.
- If there are any questions about rules, you may either PM me or ask in the thread. If the latter, make sure it is clearly addressed to me.

It is now Night 1. Night 1 will end at 8:00:00 PM EDT in two days, on Tuesday, June 25th, 48 hours from the time of this post (apologies for being a few minutes late).

The game has now begun. You may now post!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

After the assassin game, it'll definitely be interesting to see another game where the wolves are (kinda) pitted against each other.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This goes without saying, but we definitely have to be more careful and be sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to the lynch. With vote manipulation shenanigans going on we could very well end up in a situation where the person the majority of people are voting for isn't the person who ends up getting lynched.

[Nana1Popo2]

Cue "It's Been Awhile" by Staind

[Oricorio]

So basically, wolves can't die in the night, only humans can. How accurate we'll need to be in our lynches will depend on things like how coordinated the wolves are, but don't expect there to be more than one.

Seers can clear a player from one of the wolf slots, but the utility of it is questionable when there's no way to confirm if a wolf is dead. Seer information would be useful to the wolves as well as it could tell them who to target to advance their wincon more quickly, so be careful about divulging that information.

[XiaoMigros]

Also, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans

[SpecsFlyer17]

So the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.

I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.

Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.

If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.

[mastersuperfan]

So the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.

I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.

Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.

If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.

Two changes to clarify from the initial draft of the game:
- Players who are burned/chilled are not colored red/blue. Only the Fire and Ice Wolf and painted targets are seered red or blue.
- There is no seering N1.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Two changes to clarify from the initial draft of the game:
- Players who are burned/chilled are not colored red/blue. Only the Fire and Ice Wolf and painted targets are seered red or blue.
- There is no seering N1.

Got it. In that case, ignore everything I said in post 7.

[XiaoMigros]

Ignore everything I've said so far too lol

[BlackDragonSlayer]

So we're back at square one

I imagine that if one of the wolves got a seer power and seers someone the opposite color, they might be more inclined to try to leak the knowledge publicly, but otherwise I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for a human seer to reveal their seering, especially if the person they seered is already suspected. It could very well be the deciding factor toward lynching someone versus not.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Since the painting each night (starting N2) is temporary, any positive seer result is a 50/50 wolf. It also proves the respective wolf is still alive, as the wolf would have had to been alive that night to paint someone.

Is it worth seer claiming and lynching the result based on a 50/50? Probably depends on the circumstances, but having someone with a 50% chance of being a wolf does seem powerful.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Hello everyone! I am sore and tired, but here and ready to play. If anyone is curious, my marathon time is faster than Specs'. (Math still has us both beat though)

I have a suggestion for the seer powers, not that it's relevant for N1. BDS bringing up the assassin game reminded me of forcing the wolves into a position where they had to play against each other. Since the seers are sort of each cordoned into hunting for one wolf, what if, when a seer receives a positive result, they claim that they received a positive result on that player, but not which color? The reason I suggest this is because Arcanine has an interest in keeping the Ice Seer alive, and vice versa with Ninetales and the Fire Seer. Since humans only die in the night if both wolves coordinate the hit, this decreases the incentive for the wolves to both target that seer.

This isn't a broken strategy by any means, because as people have already pointed out, the same night seerings go live is the same night that the waters are muddied by the wolf paintings, so it's not surefire, but I think it does give the seers slightly better odds of survival.

[mastersuperfan]

24 hours left in Night 1!