TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I can't shake the feeling that these responses are not genuine

:thinking:

Your commitment to a KitB definitely gives me pause about you, at the very least—though on the opposite end, it's entirely possible that both lynches contain a wolf or wolf lover and you're going for what you think is the "better" option to ensure the wolf team's continued survival.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

It's not a commitment to a KitB at all lol--my preference would be to take Raeko and MSF down, but if I'm not getting that, you are more suspicious than either Specs or Toby to me. I care more about wolf-hunting than avoiding a KitB

[BlackDragonSlayer]

...interesting.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Overall not the worst KitB to be in, given opinions I've already expressed—but I'd much prefer a definitive lynch either way. That way we have more control over the result rather than making it a gamble.

[Oricorio]

Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
Raeko: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 3 (Nakah, Toby, TheZeldaPianist275)
SpecsFlyer17: 3 (BlackDragonSlayer, ThatHiddenCharacter, mastersuperfan)

BlackDragonSlayer was lynched by KitB, and TheZeldaPianist275 dies of heartbreak!

It is now D2. Phase ends at 9:00 PM EST/1:00 UTC on March 11. Due to DST, this means the phase is 47 hours long instead of 48.

[mastersuperfan]

damnnnnnnnnnnnn

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Deathpost

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Deathpost

[mastersuperfan]

guys it's just like romeo & juliet

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I can't say I'm particularly happy about this outcome. At this point, I feel relatively confident that if BDS and TZP were both human, than the wolves are either Toby/raeko or Specs/raeko. I fully trust msf right now, and I decently trust Nakah. I'd like to hear more from Toby and raeko, though, they've gone relatively silent in the latter half of that phase.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Some thoughts about yesterday. I was at an event yesterday evening so I wasn't as involved as I would have liked to be.

THC generally plays pretty stubbornly. He latches onto an opinion and sticks to it.

Post 100, MSF claimed he didn't feel overly compelled to lynch me. What changed?

TZP's actions to create the KitB agree with his suspicion list (Toby 1, me 4 (with 1 being least suspicious)), although I'll take a look more at his move to create the KitB in a bit.

Nahak in post 107 revealed that him and THC are lovers, but that was already deduced in the thread beforehand. Maybe chalk it to being afk, but that seems like a potential wolfy move- not reading that thread before posting something that benefits their agenda.

TZPs change of vote to the BDS KitB seems consistent with his thoughts on post 133, stating that he wouldn't object to BDS going down.

THC, I am curious about your shift to the BDS vote in post 146. You claimed that it was to get rid of TZP; why did you feel that TZP was worthy of being lynched?

Post 147, MSF states that Toby/Specs is the only pair that hasn't come under scrutiny, which honestly seemed to spark a ton of action. Less than a few hours later, we were the top canidate to be lynched.

MSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.

THC in post 161, you claim I was your initial gut reaction? Was I? I recall you being fairly town-leaning on me for most of D1.

With a 3 way KitB (which was a result of THC's vote on me), THC says that someone needs to change their vote to get control over the situation. That's an odd thing to say when their vote was the exact reason the situation existed. Especially given their stance of not being willing to change the vote.

[Toby]

I find it very strange how much traction a Specs lynch suddenly got simply for not having being looked at before

[SpecsFlyer17]

Now I'd like to analyze TZP's last-minute vote change to the KitB.

Prior to his vote change, his vote was on raeko, with Toby/Specs leading the pack at 3 votes. TZP/BDS had 2 votes, so the only influential move he could've made was creating the KitB between TZP/BDS and Toby/Specs, which he did.

From a statistical standpoint (random distribution) and assuming TZP is human, I'm not sure this move makes sense. On page 1, we discussed the probabilities of a given human being paired with a wolf: 2/3 chance your partner is a human, 1/3 chance it's a wolf. So from that angle, self-preservation makes sense, and TZP should've not gambled on himself getting killed.

So, there was clearly another motivation behind his vote change. One, he could've just felt strong enough about human!Toby and human!Specs that he was willing to take a risk that wolf!BDS was his partner. That's consistent with his suspicion list, as Toby was his least-suspicious, and I was in the middle of the pack. Still, I think his suspicions regarding the possibilities above must've been very strong to cause him to change his vote.

I'm not sure it makes any sense for wolf!TZP to do what he did. The only scenario where that makes any sense would be if wolf!TZP's partner wolf existed in the Toby/Specs lover pair. That's inconsistent with his suspicion list. Furthermore, the net result is still even, as it was either wolf!Toby/wolf!Specs that died, or wolf!TZP.

Given all of that, human!TZP seems like overwhelmingly the likely option. If that is true, statistically he took down another human (2/3 chance an H-H), but it could've been wolf!BDS.

[mastersuperfan]

Post 100, MSF claimed he didn't feel overly compelled to lynch me. What changed?

once I found out you and Toby were lovers, I didn't want to lynch you then because I had a decently solid townread on Toby. given BDS/TZP vs. Toby/Specs, I would've lynched BDS/TZP if Toby was the only one of those four I townread. however, after seeing BDS and TZP both say that they'd be willing to go down with each other, I townread both of them more strongly than before. it could have been a ruse on their parts, but BDS didn't fight very hard to stay alive (he didn't communicate with me about voting Specs) (and we know now that TZP really was willing to go down with the ship). because of that, and because of Toby's hasty last minute vote (which, I think, THC rightly sussed), I felt the odds of hitting a wolf were better by lynching Toby/Specs. it was close, though, and I didn't feel too bad about the kitb because I would've been fine to take the outcome either way.

---

in the interest of kicking off voting discussion as early as possible, because I think we need all the time we can get, I'm going to vote raeko. this is something I was already thinking of doing since yesterday — probabilistically this might not seem like the soundest move, but given that we have only 3 pairs now instead of 4, and given my current reads, I actually think this is the highest expected value move from where I'm at.

here are PM conversations with raeko and with THC that give the context for this:

PMs with raeko

Is there a reason to go after the partner instead of the wolf?

I just voted for Nakah because I'm not going to be around much today and I needed to get a vote out.

I could see TZP being UTR as well and would be willing to vote there. They gave a lot of reads but little reasoning

ah I meant that I felt like I was going for the partners out of necessity because I didn't have good reads on the other players themselves, and was just trying to go for the most sus among Toby/THC/Specs while hoping to maybe catch a wolf partner as collateral damage

I have a slight townread on TZP but I see where you're coming from. I worry about BDS.

if we lynch THC/Nakah today, there's a chance I consider voting ourselves tomorrow, depending on how the dynamics go. I'm worried about the world where you're a wolf

I'm not going to consider voting you until we are final 4. Even if you are a wolf I just don't think it's worth rushing it

(Nakah comes in and becomes active)

what do you think of Nakah's most recent posts?

you mentioned you thought TZP might be UTR — are you willing to push for a BDS/TZP vote before phase end? it seems like a more tractable vote than THC/Nakah, I'm still not sure whether I want to lynch THC, and I think wolf!BDS or wolf!TZP will be more dangerous on day 2 than wolf!THC or wolf!Nakah given how distanced BDS/TZP have been from the meat of the action this round.

(no response from raeko as of yet)

[close]

PMs with THC

who do you think the most likely wolf pairings are?

I could see it being either Toby with raeko or TZP or Specs with raeko or TZP. As of now, I think I'm more inclined for Toby/raeko. To list them in order:

Toby/raeko
Toby/TZP
Specs/raeko
Specs/TZP

Clearly, out of the four of them, Toby and raeko are my top individual contenders for wolves, as well.

thanks. I just reached the same conclusion, with the added possibility of raeko/BDS (what Nakah suspects). the possibility of raeko/BDS bothers me because raeko said earlier today she would be willing to vote TZP out, but hasn't responded since then after the pairings have come out and I asked her to help push a charge against TZP/BDS. she hasn't responded to anything nat all so I don't know what she's doing. I'm sus of her.

I'm worried that raeko/TZP could also be a pair and they're distancing. I'm lowkey tempted to off myself to kill raeko

I think I might actually off myself

if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:

TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs

voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko.

That is certainly a possibility. I will say, though, that is Toby/Specs is lynched this phase, raeko is likely to get my vote next phase, so it might still be worth sticking with Toby/Specs for now.

Currently, you and Nakah are the only ones I feel comfortable about. You in particular, your recent plays scream town, I feel very confident in you at this point.

it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow.

[close]

in short, my reasons are:

- I have very high trust in THC right now because I townread him, people I townread townread him, and I can't see him being paired with basically anyone (except maybe raeko in a rare world). currently THC and I also both townread Nakah after he became more active — for me, in particular, the fact that Nakah sussed BDS who had basically gone UTR the whole round. given that I townread TZP (and I agreed with most of TZP's strategy and reads) and TZP's ending play reveals him as most likely human, I think (given TZP's large suspicion) there's a decent case that BDS is a wolf, which would make Nakah look good.

- if Nakah had wanted to go for an easy lynch, I think he would've joined the me/raeko wagon, and had ample reasoning to do so (in fact I'm surprised he didn't?) — unless Nakah was paired with raeko, which also contributes to why I want to lynch raeko today. I think there was a consensus in the thread that Nakah/raeko was probably no longer a wolf pair, but I'm not sure it's implausible that it was an intentional distancing effort by both of them to vote each other. raeko's meta sus (which nobody else here can really refute) and Nakah's "I'm going to put a likewise unsure kind of vote on her as a reaction test" kind of bothers me. I don't think this is the most likely possibility, but I think this is the most sensible world where Nakah is a wolf

- if THC and Nakah aren't among the wolves, that means that the wolves are between raeko, BDS, TZP, Toby and Specs. for reasons that Specs mentioned, TZP as a wolf doesn't make much sense: if the wolves were TZP/raeko, TZP would have let Toby/Specs die; if TZP/Toby, Toby wouldn't have lynched TZP; and TZP/Specs is plausible, but I can't help but feel like TZP would have been able to swing it a different way earlier. it is one possible pairing, though.

- BDS/Toby and BDS/Specs don't make sense either, because BDS could have very easily just pushed onto me/raeko instead of Toby/Specs.

- raeko/Specs is probably not it because Specs left a vote on raeko and dipped at a time where raeko was most likely to be lynched.

- so the possibilities in my head are basically: raeko/BDS, raeko/Toby, raeko/Nakah, or TZP/Specs. thus, I want to sacrifice myself today to take raeko down with me.

- if nothing else, I also feel like her response to me asking "there's a chance I consider voting ourselves tomorrow" was a little overly buddying, which made me a bit uncomfortable.

---

if anyone thinks I'm tunneled, please do let me know, because I'd love to hear a case for why I'm paranoid and wrong. I've been going crazy wondering whether this is really the best move

[mastersuperfan]

Sorry, we're in EDT lol....but that last post by ZeldaPianist is very suspicious, because I feel town check for THC, who is my paired lover, and I don't feel town check for Raeko/MSF.....Both of which are being a bit inactive until probably the last second as wolves do.

  I'm willing to bet right now that MSF is more Town than Raeko....but I don't want to push a vote on Raeko.


    I'm feeling right now that the possible wolf team may be BDS and Raeko....I'm therefore keeping my vote on BDS for now.

Nakah, why didn't you want to vote for raeko?