TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[mastersuperfan]

I agree with BDS that we're perhaps already at the point where we should reveal lover pairings. I suspect there's a good chance wolves have figured all the pairings out and I'm worried about their ability to use this information to push for a mislynch. and as TZP said, I think it would be nice to know who goes down with whom...

I also think we should reveal because I'm worried that we're going to spread out the votes too much over 8 candidates and allow the wolves to decide the outcome easily, whereas we could better consolidate if we knew that voting for two particular players would actually be voting for the same pair.

[mastersuperfan]

so if you, me, Toby, and Specs indeed all belong to different pairs: if Toby's pair isn't going to be lynched this round, which of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead? if you know you're innocent, and you think Specs is town, and you don't think I'm Toby's wolf partner, I don't see a particularly strong reason for you to fight so hard against lynching Specs' pair. would you be onboard with lynching Specs' pair today if it stopped you from being lynched?

I semi take this back because I think you could use the same argument to argue that I should be okay voting Toby, which may be true

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

which of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead?

Probably mine. Knowing my luck, I wouldn't be surprised if I got paired with a wolf. I don't have enough suspicion on my lover to make that call as of yet, though. I'd still like to wait until closer to phase end before making any rash decisions.

[Oricorio]

In the meantime, just so I don't forget to later, I'm placing my vote on Toby.

@Oricorio If there's a tie, does it go to a KitB?

Yes

Current votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Toby: 1 (ThatHiddenCharacter)
ThatHiddenCharacter: 1 (mastersuperfan)

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'd like to analyze the negative reactions to people gaining votes, if any.

When I received two votes THC was really the only person to defend. Everyone else just watched for the most part. Now, that could mean he's defending his lover, defending a wolf partner, or defending a wolf partner's lover. I'll say that 1 and 2 aren't true, and 3 would be extremely bold given all we've talked about defending.

BDS threw a vote on Nakah, and there wasn't a whole lot of reaction to it. raeko did jump in and explain why Nakah parroted some of her thoughts, but that was more of a response from BDS asking it. I could see Nakah/raeko being a pair tbh.

THC then votes Toby, and MSF votes for THC. There is a lot of back and forth between THC and MSF, which is either a solid effort at distancing, or legitimate conversation that leads me to believe they wouldn't mind each other getting lynched.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'm actually going to vote Nakah for the time being.

Between the early parroting and this comment,

why are we connected together ;_;

I think there's something going on between Nakah and raeko. Could be a lover pair, could be wolf-related. Sure, that quote is a fair question to ask in response to being combined in THCs sus list. But it felt a little like a trigger-happy distancing attempt.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

it's 50/50 EV because if the lynch kills one of the four pairs uniformly at random, there's a 50/50 chance of it being a h-h pair vs. a h-w pair, but from your perspective if you're human (and every other human's perspective), you're more likely to hit a wolf by lynching a different pair. thus every pair is incentivized to aim away from itself, but it's not possible for every pair to do this, because some pair is going to get voted.

yes there's essentially 4 possible lynch options, but from human pov, your pair is more likely to be h-h than h-w, because half the time you're in a h-w relationship you wouldn't have been given the human role in the first place.

No joke I woke up this morning and my first thought was "MSF was right". Next time I argue about probability I'll sleep first—sorry lol

MSF also makes a good point about the wolves having a big head start toward solving the game and therefore being helped less by partner revelations than humans are. I also talked to my lover about revealing who we are and I think I'm going to go for it—BDS and I are paired off this game.

I'll post a suspicion list a bit later but I will say that I don't find THC suspicious right now. He's not my top townread but he hasn't done or said anything that's out of character with his usual human game.

Raeko for now. Gonna need to hear more from you!

[mastersuperfan]

BDS and I are paired off this game.

what

ok that's not what I expected

give me a moment to think

[TheZeldaPianist275]

what

ok that's not what I expected

give me a moment to think

What did you expect MSF? And a few pages back you said you didn't mind if Specs got lynched even though you weren't suspicious of him—maybe share what you meant by that now?

[mastersuperfan]

okay, because I personally feel that we should get the pairings out there as soon as possible, and because the wolves can almost surely deduce the pairings by now, I'm going to lay it all out even though my partner hasn't responded yet (sorry raeko).

raeko and I are lovers. given that TZP and BDS are lovers, Specs has denied being THC's lover, Specs is currently voting Nakah, and THC is currently voting Toby (and said that if he didn't vote Toby, he'd rather vote his own lover), the pairings are almost certainly (bar an elaborate ruse):

MSF - raeko
TZP - BDS
Specs - Toby
THC - Nakah

in our messages, raeko was the first to bring up that she was sussing THC, although I was already sussing him at that point as well. I have a fairly neutral lean on raeko right now which is not enough for me to want to sacrifice ourselves.

on their own I think THC and Nakah are slightly wolfy, but I'm a little more willing to trust THC for now after what he said above.

more importantly: given that raeko, BDS, Specs, and I (and even THC himself) have all pointed fingers at THC - Nakah pair (raeko only to me in private), I'm very scared that at least one of the above is a wolf pushing to lynch a human-human pair. it could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP or whose partner has given up on trying to protect him, but it seems just as plausible to me that THC - Nakah is human/human and an easy lynch target for the wolves.

[mastersuperfan]

What did you expect MSF? And a few pages back you said you didn't mind if Specs got lynched even though you weren't suspicious of him—maybe share what you meant by that now?

I did not think that Specs and Toby were lovers because of Toby's initial vote. in hindsight that was probably not a very strong reason to think so because it was an early vote with not much basis and no real expectation of going through. could have been a planned ruse, could have been Toby just trying to generate discussion.

re: not minding if Specs got lynched, I explained in my readslist:

towny
Toby: his early vote on Specs strikes me as human — I'm not sure a wolf would be so confident as to throw out the first vote onto a human-human pair based on minimal reasoning from the get-go, as it might make them stand out more — which is why I was confident joining Toby even though I didn't wolfread Specs, because if Toby is human and I am human then I think there would be a good chance that lynching Specs' pair would take down a wolf. the other reason I've continued to townread Toby is this:
...

obviously if Specs and Toby are lovers this no longer holds and I don't feel overly compelled to lynch Specs.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

more importantly: given that raeko, BDS, Specs, and I (and even THC himself) have all pointed fingers at THC - Nakah pair (raeko only to me in private), I'm very scared that at least one of the above is a wolf pushing to lynch a human-human pair. it could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP or whose partner has given up on trying to protect him, but it seems just as plausible to me that THC - Nakah is human/human and an easy lynch target for the wolves.

Yeah, if that's the case about multiple people accusing the THC/Nakah pair I'm glad this is out in the open now. A wolf strategy that works only if the pairs aren't known is to push for taking down the same pair by each wolf accusing a different member of it to make the vote stacking less obvious.

I need to run, so I can't provide full explanations right now, but here's my suspicion list, from most to least human

1. Toby
2. MSF
3. THC
4. Specs
5. BDS
6. Raeko
7. Nakah

Most human—If Toby and Specs are indeed partners I think that's Toby's early vote on him was probably an early game reaction test, an aggressive one I don't think a wolf would have thought of

Most wolfy—we've gotten bitten here a lot recently by wolves that are hiding, so if you're on the level, we need to hear more from you, Nakah

[mastersuperfan]

it could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP

(or raeko - as multiple people have suggested)

[mastersuperfan]

(or raeko - as multiple people have suggested)

if raeko's paired with Nakah I'm not sure she would have suggested lynching THC to me

[Toby]

Hi sorry I'm away today and not had much time to catch-up. I'll be back to my normal schedule tomorrow

My initial vote was purely a reaction test I just wanted to vote for Specs as my partner to see both his reaction and others

I was surprised more people agreed with my reasoning so I can't really be too sus of it.

Reading thc and Mario as town.

Going to try pop on and likely change my vote later. My contribution will be low today unfortunately