TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[mastersuperfan]

another way to think of it is that there are 6 humans, 4 of whom have human partners and 2 of whom have wolf lovers. if roles are distributed uniformly at random you are equally likely to be any one of these 6 humans, so 4/6 of the time you're paired with a human and 2/6 of the time with a wolf.

[mastersuperfan]

From the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair

it's 50/50 EV because if the lynch kills one of the four pairs uniformly at random, there's a 50/50 chance of it being a h-h pair vs. a h-w pair, but from your perspective if you're human (and every other human's perspective), you're more likely to hit a wolf by lynching a different pair. thus every pair is incentivized to aim away from itself, but it's not possible for every pair to do this, because some pair is going to get voted.

yes there's essentially 4 possible lynch options, but from human pov, your pair is more likely to be h-h than h-w, because half the time you're in a h-w relationship you wouldn't have been given the human role in the first place.

[mastersuperfan]

anyway, we have about 14 hours left in phase, so here's where I'm at:

wolfy
THC: it looks like I may not the only one to be coming to this conclusion, which makes me a little iffy on whether I'm unknowingly joining a behind-the-scenes wolf push on him. but THC's behavior has really been bothering me. his first page posts were kinda vacuous and empty, fine, okay. what bothers me is that since then he has been playing the entire game defensively. on some level this is expected when we've been criticizing him / asking him questions, but he's pretty stubborn on talking only about the view he keeps pushing (namely, that Toby = wolfy and me = no longer towny, which he has emphasized in at least three posts; also his repeated sus of raeko for having fluffy posts) and not on generating any other discussion. and I think others have pointed out some pretty good reasons why they don't see the Specs votes as particularly sus or why THC's behavior is a little strange, and instead of updating his position or acknowledging that any of it makes sense he's consistently justifying and explaining his position.

slight wolf lean
Nakah: pls talk more, your first message doesn't leave a great impression

neutral
Specs: started off with a few good posts, contributions since them have been a bit sparse and surface-level. none of this is unreasonable for either a human or a wolf to say, I think.

TZP: only posted twice on mechanistic / strategy things without really getting involved in the broader sus discussions happening. incorrect math assertion makes me a little sus and could be a wolf misleading but I would guess it's genuine. would like to see more of your thoughts on players so far

raeko: I do agree with a THC a little that her posts could be more thorough, but I don't wolfread her for this (and I think it's a lil strange you keep emphasizing this, THC!). not at all defensive or stubborn, which I think is a good look. that said I would like to see more from you

slight town lean
BDS: posts have been helpful for town, generating good discussion on some interesting points (the raeko/Nakah mindmeld, THC's response to Specs votes, and other miscellaneous theories like me/TZP wolf). his behavior generally strikes me as genuine and not driven by ulterior motives on trying to get a lynch on someone in particular — unless he's a wolf and THC belongs to a human-human pair, but he's not pushing THC overly strongly and I'm also sus of THC, so.

towny
Toby: his early vote on Specs strikes me as human — I'm not sure a wolf would be so confident as to throw out the first vote onto a human-human pair based on minimal reasoning from the get-go, as it might make them stand out more — which is why I was confident joining Toby even though I didn't wolfread Specs, because if Toby is human and I am human then I think there would be a good chance that lynching Specs' pair would take down a wolf. the other reason I've continued to townread Toby is this:

Is this role PM accurate or do wolves also get told who the other wolf is somewhere

I like Toby's vote on Specs and I think the logic makes sense. Not sure if Toby's post about wolves knowing who the other wolf is was supposed to be a possible dumb tell?

No im aware the wolves know eachother,

I was just curious to know why it wasn't included in the role PM, mostly because I'm curious if Wolf A is told in their role PM on who Wolf B's lover is

Toby's reaction struck for a few reasons. one, I think what raeko meant by the dumb tell (or at least, how I read it) is that Toby was playing dumb about whether the real role PM matched the template in the OP (which wolf!Toby would know the answer to). instead, though, Toby interpreted raeko's comment as a dumb tell about whether the wolves know each other at all. I think if Toby were a wolf and dumbtelling he wouldn't have responded that way, because he would have known he was playing dumb about whether the role PM matched the template

two, I find it strange that he checked the templates because he was curious about whether the wolves' role PMs told them their wolf partner's lover. I wouldn't expect this to be the case at all, and if he were a wolf I think that reason would have been too weird to use to explain why he checked the role PMs. instead it strikes me as a human genuinely trying to solve

---

With all that said, THC. I don't like your closed-mindedness and it strikes me as a wolf trying to push for the lynches they want rather than a human trying to solve the game.

[mastersuperfan]

I would still be comfortable voting Specs, but it doesn't seem like sentiment will go that way this round

[mastersuperfan]

Specs Townlean: As I said, nothing has jumped out at me as suspicious. Has added a lot to the conversation, and seems to be in the best interest of town. I don't think reiterating what someone else has said, as long as it's putting it in a more succinct and easy-to-understand way, is suspicious.

by the time you've posted this Specs has not been contributing to the conversation all that much anymore...

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

but he's pretty stubborn

I mean, yes. That's me in a nutshell. I play that way regardless of my alignment. If I believe something, I will defend it no matter what. Plus, it's hard not to default to the defensive when every game people think I'm sus just for playing the way I play in every game. At some point, I feel like it should be obvious that I just play a way that can be seen as suspicious, and I wish people would actually notice the things I do differently as wolf!THC because there are differences.

[mastersuperfan]

I wish people would actually notice the things I do differently as wolf!THC

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I also can't help but notice you seem to be plastering my name in almost everyone's sections on your suspicion list, which feels like overkill if you were a townie that was convinced I'm a wolf. Feels more like trying to sway others into believing that narrative.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

As in, people always think I'm sus because of how I play. But they always point out the things I do regardless of alignment. Never things I do only as a wolf.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

As in, people always think I'm sus because of how I play. But they always point out the things I do regardless of alignment. Never things I do only as a wolf.

At a certain point, it gets very old being a prime lynch candidate in every game for the same reasons every time.

[mastersuperfan]

THC, do you think Toby and I are wolf partners together?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC, do you think Toby and I are wolf partners together?

No. I actually think you are lovers.

[mastersuperfan]

No. I actually think you are lovers.

I'll come out and say that we're not.

Does this change anything for you?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I'll come out and say that we're not.

Does this change anything for you?

Not particularly. I don't fully believe you're a wolf, but I still find it odd how hard you're pushing me right now (like I said, my name appears at least half a dozen times in your suspicion list). I still don't trust Toby, but to be fair, I think I never trust Toby. I doubt I'll be changing my vote before phase end unless something big happens, though.

[mastersuperfan]

THC, from your perspective it probably seems reasonable to assume that neither Toby nor I is Specs' lover. from my perspective, it seems reasonable to assume you're not Specs' lover (based on what Specs said in response to your defense), and if you are, I think you should consider saying so because it will make me and possibly others less sus of you.

THC, other than a little comment from Specs himself in his readslist (and even then, not an explicit sus), nobody else seems to be particularly sussing Toby right now. I would guess that he's not going to be an especially notable lynch target this round. on the other hand, I think there's a pretty decent chance you end up today's lynching.

so if you, me, Toby, and Specs indeed all belong to different pairs: if Toby's pair isn't going to be lynched this round, which of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead? if you know you're innocent, and you think Specs is town, and you don't think I'm Toby's wolf partner, I don't see a particularly strong reason for you to fight so hard against lynching Specs' pair. would you be onboard with lynching Specs' pair today if it stopped you from being lynched?

---

someone else please do let me know if I'm tunneling. brain is slowly turning into mush

---

I agree with BDS that we're perhaps already at the point where we should reveal lover pairings. I suspect there's a good chance wolves have figured all the pairings out and I'm worried about their ability to use this information to push for a mislynch. and as TZP said, I think it would be nice to know who goes down with whom...