TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[raeko]

How do you feel about Nakah sheeping your read in particular? Any suggestions as to why Nakah may have done that, from your perspective?

Because we are close friends, he usually tries to mess with me in werewolf games somehow or uses his PR powers on me >_> or sheeps me

Either that or he wasn't paying that much attention and just reacted to the first thing he saw within the first few posts, without realizing that I had already said the same thing

If we legitimately just mind melded and he did read my post then it's kinda weird that he would bring it up as if it was an original thought without acknowledging my post.

Regardless of why I would like to see more from him before I come to a conclusion. A single post is hard to make a read from

[TheZeldaPianist275]

there are 6 humans. 4 are paired with other humans and 2 are paired with wolves. given uniformly random role distribution, from a human's point of view, there's a 2/6 = 1/3 chance you're paired with a wolf.

then:
- with 1/3 probability, your lover is a wolf. thus one other pair is human-wolf, and the remaining two pairs are human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 1/3 chance of killing a wolf.
- with 2/3 probability, your lover is a human. thus two other pairs are human-wolf, and the remaining pair is human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 2/3 chance of killing a wolf.

thus lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random, in total, has a 1/3 * 1/3 + 2/3 * 2/3 = 5/9 chance of killing a wolf.

tl;dr for humans:
- if you sacrifice your own pair, there's a 33.3% chance you kill a wolf
- if you sacrifice a different pair, there's a 55.6% chance you kill a wolf

so both humans and wolves have incentives to protect themselves day 1.

This was nagging at me earlier this afternoon. I don't think your math is quite right here MSF

From the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair

I understand where you're coming from though, and I gotta say I'm no good on combinatorics. @threalmathguy WYA

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

It doesn't exactly strike me positively that you're criticizing the Specs votes just because he's your highest townread, especially when others (including myself) have expressed differing opinions on Specs.

That was absolutely not my only reason, and I even specified that it was the less important reason. My main reason was because it was Toby's third post, and he only gave one reason that didn't even feel like a good reason to place a vote so quickly. I understand voting is important in a day-only game like this, but that doesn't mean we have to rush votes out in the first half of the phase. And I didn't like msf's vote because he had said only a couple posts before that he was slightly leaning town on Specs, then basically just jumped on Toby's vote with what basically amounted to a "YEET!". Now, I fully recognize that it could just be a reaction test, which is why it only brought msf to a neutral lean for me.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Because we are close friends, he usually tries to mess with me in werewolf games somehow or uses his PR powers on me >_> or sheeps me

Either that or he wasn't paying that much attention and just reacted to the first thing he saw within the first few posts, without realizing that I had already said the same thing

That's certainly an interesting bit of information and does make me hesitate for a bit. Though, I'm still planning on keeping my vote on Nakah until we hear more.

If we legitimately just mind melded and he did read my post then it's kinda weird that he would bring it up as if it was an original thought without acknowledging my post.

Regardless of why I would like to see more from him before I come to a conclusion. A single post is hard to make a read from

True, which is why I don't think you two would be wolves together—assuming he's a wolf, it seems more like Nakah trying either get a human lover lynched or possibly direct attention away from a human wolf lover (that is, a human paired with a wolf).

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though)

I would also just lime to bring attention to this, the bolded part in particular. I specified that he's my highest townread only by a small margin, but people keep referring to it like I was calling him the patron saint of townreads. I wouldn't hesitate to change my mind if I started seeing him act suspicious, I just feel he hasn't said anything suspicious yet.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

To put my suspicions into a succinct list:

Specs Townlean: As I said, nothing has jumped out at me as suspicious. Has added a lot to the conversation, and seems to be in the best interest of town. I don't think reiterating what someone else has said, as long as it's putting it in a more succinct and easy-to-understand way, is suspicious.

BDS Townlean: It really peeves me when I respond to an accusation or make an accusation and the person in question makes a post(s) and completely ignores mine. However, everything else from you seems on the up and up, so I'm willing to look past it for you for now.

msf neutral: As I said before, I initially was townleaning msf for the same reasons as BDS and Specs. Their posts seem intended to help town and they've been very active (non-fluff) in discussion. However, the vote on Specs, while it could just be a reaction test, doesn't sit well with me. It feels more like a bandwagon than a reaction test. Not enough to make me fully sus, but enough to drop down to neutral.

TZP neutral: I believe he only has one post so far? I'm at work, so I can only look at what's on the current page. The post was just calling out msf for math stuff (I believe msf did have the math right, btw, since you exclude your own pairing in the math, meaning it wouldn't be a 50/50), but not really anything substantial enough to get a read. Btw, math isn't in this game, TZP.

raeko/Nakah ??: I honestly haven't even been able to make much sense of their posts. Specifically raeko. I think I'd go full neutral for Nakah just for lack of posts to read, and neutral-slightwolf for raeko because of my notes about fluffy posts from them still seeming to be the case. They keep pointing out things claiming to "note" them, but not really elaborate.

Toby slight-wolflean: I've already given my reasons for not trusting Toby. Plus what I mentioned in my BDS section. Toby posted shortly after I accused him, but never acknowledged it. It's not enough to make me certain of wolfishness or anything, but he's definitely my top contender to vote for. I'm waiting until just before I go to bed today to put my vote in. It'll definitely be well before phase change.

[raeko]

raeko/Nakah ??: I honestly haven't even been able to make much sense of their posts. Specifically raeko. I think I'd go full neutral for Nakah just for lack of posts to read, and neutral-slightwolf for raeko because of my notes about fluffy posts from them still seeming to be the case. They keep pointing out things claiming to "note" them, but not really elaborate.

why are we connected together ;_;

When you say "their" do you mean both of us? or who do you mean? you can call me she/her btw

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

When you say "their" do you mean both of us? or who do you mean? you can call me she/her btw

I was referring to you, I didn't want to make any assumptions. Thank you for specifying what to use!

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

why are we connected together ;_;

When I started that line, I thought I had no thoughts on either of you, but as I kept typing, I realized I could have put you two separate without the question marks. But I'm at work and I didn't have time to adjust it.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

It really peeves me when I respond to an accusation or make an accusation and the person in question makes a post(s) and completely ignores mine.

I hope this doesn't come across as rude, I only me tonight it since I feel it gives important context to my views on players.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I only me tonight it

*mention

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That was absolutely not my only reason, and I even specified that it was the less important reason. My main reason was because it was Toby's third post, and he only gave one reason that didn't even feel like a good reason to place a vote so quickly. I understand voting is important in a day-only game like this, but that doesn't mean we have to rush votes out in the first half of the phase. And I didn't like msf's vote because he had said only a couple posts before that he was slightly leaning town on Specs, then basically just jumped on Toby's vote with what basically amounted to a "YEET!". Now, I fully recognize that it could just be a reaction test, which is why it only brought msf to a neutral lean for me.

Re: Toby thing, personally, I don't think that makes much of a difference for me (overall, I'd rather votes get thrown out early rather than later, especially when those votes have a high chance of not being final votes), though I can kinda see why that might stand out to you. Other than that I'm not sure what you said changes my view of your reaction at all.

I would also just lime to bring attention to this, the bolded part in particular. I specified that he's my highest townread only by a small margin, but people keep referring to it like I was calling him the patron saint of townreads. I wouldn't hesitate to change my mind if I started seeing him act suspicious, I just feel he hasn't said anything suspicious yet.

My impressions were based on your reaction to the votes on Specs, which struck me as a bit disproportionately strong.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

My impressions were based on your reaction to the votes on Specs, which struck me as a bit disproportionately strong.

It's only strong because there are two people voting for someone that I don't really see as being sus, both without giving much in the way of reasons. If even one of those factors were different, I wouldn't have fought it nearly as hard, if at all. Like I said, I'd be more than happy to vote Specs if I believed there was good reason to. And there is certainly still plenty of time for that to end up being the case.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

In the meantime, just so I don't forget to later, I'm placing my vote on Toby.

@Oricorio If there's a tie, does it go to a KitB?

[mastersuperfan]

This was nagging at me earlier this afternoon. I don't think your math is quite right here MSF

From the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair

I understand where you're coming from though, and I gotta say I'm no good on combinatorics. @threalmathguy WYA

it's not even odds. conditional on being a human, you're twice as likely to be in a h-h relationship than in a h-w relationship, because 50% of the time in a h-w relationship you're not human at all