TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[Oricorio]

Although there is one problem with revealing the PRs — it gives the Grinch safe targets to wolf, while we can otherwise hope the Grinch wolfs Frosty (assuming they haven't already). Depending on who's on the Naughty/Nice lists, however, this may not change the math.

[Oricorio]

Doing Xiao and Toby together

I just straight up think the wolfing would have been missed, not failed, if Xiao was the Grynch--just hasn't been here enough. Toby has, and I think he'd be a legitimate lynch candidate today, particularly since missing inactives has come back to bite us recently. That said, I hope everything's okay with you bro.

Right now I think that BDS and Oricorio scoping each other out is genuine, and THC's BDS/Davy reads are genuine. Math I'm not sure on.

From most to least sus I'd say:
1. Xiao
2. Oricorio
3. THC
4. BDS
5. Toby
6. Math
7. Davy

I think Davy's more likely Grandma than wolf. I'd be happy to cast a vote for Math or Toby but no one has voted for them yet, so I'm holding off to see if anyone else shows up to vote.

I'd like to see your updated version of this list, as five and six are dead and seven seems to be off the table. Would you still default to BDS being the most suspicious of living players, or not? (Yes, I have a red check apparently, but based solely on reads) Are you still satisfied with your reason for leaving Xiao out of the suspicion zone?

[Oricorio]

Let's look at Toby's ISO (the parts that have substance, anyway

Some skimming thoughts

Math - clutched at TZP and THC for asking Grinch questions. Asked for everyone's thoughts on TZP missing a grinch thing - is that too obvious that he's trying to rally people against TZP? I'm not leaning wolf on  him for this

THC - is being weird. sus of davy for being pro grandma while admittedly being pro grandma. Given his weird takes I'm inclined to believe if he was a wolf he may try act less weird. Asked if the wolf had a wolfing while recognising talk about a wolfing. Could see him being grandma possibly but not wolf lean

TZP - asked a grinch question. Don't think he'd do that as grinch honestly. I can see how it could be reverse psychology but I'm leaning he wouldn't. Seems to be retaliating against math  who voted him first and I think wolf TZP would avoid that angle but I'm quickly glancing

Oricorio - has been largely invested in the game. Doing GTH first post reads again and also insulting at times. Could be grandma but not leaning wolf

BDS - gave an early human lean on TZP. Wanted me to consider a davy/THC grinch/grandma pairing (odd). Don't think these are wolf takes

Davy - Gave an insightful take on Oricorio talking about grandma a lot. Nothing much else to make me think not wolf. His sus list was largely throughing suspicion on most of the players

I would be between Davy or Xiao so i'll go Xiao

To summarize:
math town (or at least "not leaning wolf")
THC Grandma (not wolf)
TZP town (I think?)
Oricorio "could be Grandma, not leaning wolf"
BDS town (I think)
davy wolf

Notably he also voted Xiao without any real context, which might be worth looking into if Toby was Seer but judging from TZP apparently that wasn't the case. davy was the only strong wolfread besides. Maybe if the Grinch knew davy was Grandma, it could be an example of wolf-Grandma collaboration to make davy more suspicious. Beyond that, I don't see anyone else killing Toby for read quality alone.

How can you be 100% certain of anything? This feels like a double down by grinch to act like grandma to not be lynched. I want to believe if THC is grinch he would be trying to act less sus than he does naturally as a human. But it's possible he's playing up to try look like grandma.

I'd be interested to see if THC survives past day 2

Although he does push this lean on THC. Notably, THC did send me a message regarding this but I'll leave it up to him if he wants to share it

I think BDS mentioned it too but I do find it strange that Davy who was so active at the beginning of the game, didn't even cast a real vote and missed the last 24 hours of day 1.

Still pushing davy. Doesn't really mention Xiao after the post near the end of D1, leaving us all to wonder what that was about.

[Oricorio]

I am wondering if a no lynch is worth considering. The benefit is we can oust Grandma without losing any town, on top of getting the specials (if they are still alive) to act again. On top of that, it can reveal if davy really is Grandma, which would add a lot of credibility to the seer if true. On the other hand, it's entirely possible the Grinch could achieve parity with four players remaining, and it's probably better to take a risky move that at least has a chance to get the Grinch over a less risky but still risky move that has no chance to get the Grinch. Thus, no lynch is probably a bad idea here, like it usually is.

[Oricorio]

Good to know I (probably) shouldn't have switched away from my suspicion of Davy as Grandma—but also good to know that my idea of "if Davy isn't the Grinch, it's probably Oricorio" may have merit to it.

ALSO, worth noting is that personally I feel that both specials should claim publicly just in case TZP is the Grinch who seered Toby blue N1 and wolfed him, and possibly also hit Santa with his power.

Is that a possible world? I mean, the wolf would probably know who Grandma is due to the failed wolfing, and even if they got Frosty instead the real Grandma isn't counterclaiming. Probably the harder part to believe would be knowing that Toby is the seer instead of Santa, which looks like a 50-50 gamble that, unlike the Grandma thing, has a huge chance of backfiring, and it seems like a risky gambit particularly because TZP didn't appear to be in too much danger going into D2, so why risk everything on such a Hail Mary move? It does seem a little too convoluted to be true

[Oricorio]

Eh, never mind, I'll release the message, since I think this is important

Ok, I told Toby that if I die tonight, Xiao is the Grinch. So if I die tonight, Toby is the Grinch trying to frame Xiao. If I don't die, then BDS is the Grinch.

Now, if THC is a wolf, they sent this knowing that Toby was going to die (or it was a last minute decision). It doesn't look like a message someone in that situation would send, although maybe it was an attempt to build suspicion on BDS. Did anyone else (besides Toby presumably) receive a similar message?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Is that a possible world? I mean, the wolf would probably know who Grandma is due to the failed wolfing, and even if they got Frosty instead the real Grandma isn't counterclaiming. Probably the harder part to believe would be knowing that Toby is the seer instead of Santa, which looks like a 50-50 gamble that, unlike the Grandma thing, has a huge chance of backfiring, and it seems like a risky gambit particularly because TZP didn't appear to be in too much danger going into D2, so why risk everything on such a Hail Mary move? It does seem a little too convoluted to be true

What I'm saying it the Grinch's actions could be:
- N1: Seer Toby (assuming Toby was Rudolph), Naughty List Santa (this could also have happened N2), Wolf Grandma/Frosty
- N2: Wolf Toby, else doesn't matter

This order would definitively tell the Grinch the identity of both specials.

As for why TZP would risk such a thing, I agree that it isn't optimal—but perhaps TZP didn't expect people to be clamoring for the specials to publicly claim, and wanted to be certain that we'd waste this lynch. I don't think TZP is lying, but I figure I'd bring it up as a point of caution just in case.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Eh, never mind, I'll release the message, since I think this is important

Now, if THC is a wolf, they sent this knowing that Toby was going to die (or it was a last minute decision). It doesn't look like a message someone in that situation would send, although maybe it was an attempt to build suspicion on BDS. Did anyone else (besides Toby presumably) receive a similar message?

IMO, I think THC would send that sort of message regardless of alignment.

[Oricorio]

What I'm saying it the Grinch's actions could be:
- N1: Seer Toby (assuming Toby was Rudolph), Naughty List Santa (this could also have happened N2), Wolf Grandma/Frosty
- N2: Wolf Toby, else doesn't matter

This order would definitively tell the Grinch the identity of both specials.

As for why TZP would risk such a thing, I agree that it isn't optimal—but perhaps TZP didn't expect people to be clamoring for the specials to publicly claim, and wanted to be certain that we'd waste this lynch. I don't think TZP is lying, but I figure I'd bring it up as a point of caution just in case.

Will the Grinch be aware if they have successfully placed Santa on the naughty list? I guess that's for the host

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Will the Grinch be aware if they have successfully placed Santa on the naughty list? I guess that's for the host

From the clarifications:
"If the Grinch places Santa on the naughty list, the grinch will be informed and Santa's action's will be voided that night."

[Oricorio]

From the clarifications:
"If the Grinch places Santa on the naughty list, the grinch will be informed and Santa's action's will be voided that night."

Okay, but in that scenario there would have to be a living Santa (unless it was math who didn't claim, but would math really be the Grinch's first choice for the Naughty List?)

[davy]

Sorry for my absence yesterday, I had a really shitty day and couldn't muster the energy for TWG. Also not feeling like delving into all the posts rn, but I can't leave a seer fake-claim hanging.

TZP is lying as I'm not Grandma, and it would have been impossible for the seer to mistake me for Grandma as no other role can be seered orange.

BDS and Oricorio have already posted extensively since TZP's claim so I don't believe they are the seer, meaning the true seer must either be dead, inactive or THC (which would explain his fixation on BDS).

[Oricorio]

Sorry for my absence yesterday, I had a really shitty day and couldn't muster the energy for TWG. Also not feeling like delving into all the posts rn, but I can't leave a seer fake-claim hanging.

TZP is lying as I'm not Grandma, and it would have been impossible for the seer to mistake me for Grandma as no other role can be seered orange.

BDS and Oricorio have already posted extensively since TZP's claim so I don't believe they are the seer, meaning the true seer must either be dead, inactive or THC (which would explain his fixation on BDS).

I guess in your world, BDS must be the miller? (Although judging by his message, THC was stuck between BDS and Toby if I take it at face value) Do you have any other reason to wolfread TZP besides the seer claim, and what do you think TZP is trying to accomplish here? I mean, by calling you Grandma they are basically taking you out of the lynch pile are they not? You think this is some sort of reaction test?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Eh, never mind, I'll release the message, since I think this is important

Now, if THC is a wolf, they sent this knowing that Toby was going to die (or it was a last minute decision). It doesn't look like a message someone in that situation would send, although maybe it was an attempt to build suspicion on BDS. Did anyone else (besides Toby presumably) receive a similar message?

I sent a similar message to every player, changing the names for each person, to see if I could gain any information from who got killed.

Also, I am the seer, and TZP is telling the truth. I didn't seer him, but he's my highest townread right now, and I was afraid I was going to die last night, so I told him about my davy seering. After I didn't die, I told him about my red seering on Oricorio and asked him to tell it publicly on my behalf. As for why I voted for BDS still at that point is because, as I said, I am willing to die on that hill. And I didn't seer BDS because I didn't want to prove myself wrong.

[SpecsFlyer17]

A few host clarifications:

Although not explicitly stated in the rules, "no lynch" is not a valid voting option. This is to protect the spirit of this game specifically, as well as the official NSM rules do not reference "no lynch".

The Grinch is told if he naughty-lists Santa, dead or alive.