TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[therealmathguy]

So you think that TZP/THC are town because "LAMIST"? It's a strange observation because if anything, for TZP it has been the opposite
Do you have any thoughts on my posts that aren't mechanical discussion?
Can you quote some of BDS's posts that have a "good perspective"?
Do you have any thoughts on davy's readslist?

I don't think they're town, I think they could be acting as town by subtly telling everyone they didn't get the grinch PM

Give me a little bit I'll answer the other points here too

[SpecsFlyer17]

Just under an hour until D1 ends.

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP: 2 votes (Oricorio, Math)
Math: 1 vote (BDS)
davy: 1 vote (davy)
BDS: 1 vote (THC)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Math thoughts

D1 posts:

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

Early suspicion of me. Math's most recent post clarifies that he thought this was something I would try to avoid after the Waluigi gaffe last game. In my defense, it's been several weeks since Specs and I were discussing this game during host sign-ups. I don't find you suspicious for calling the legitimacy of this observation into question, but it was something that hadn't been brought up (notably not by Davy) before I said anything about it. Please look at my post on THC for why I said it when I did.

Suspicion list:

Wolf (or grandma?) lean
TZP/THC - grouping them as I have the same reasoning. Both did a rule clarification/question (as did I, so I'm aware I'm not immune from this criticism either) that stands out as a little "I'm town, don't look at me" type of thing. Not a strong lean

Neutral
Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation. Could be an easy way to hop on the human train without giving away other strategies. But other mechanical conversation has good perspectives that could drive positive strategy (even if a lot of it is still focused on grandma) so probably not
Xiao/Toby - idk

Human lean
BDS - I disagree with those that said BDS's posts has been reactionary or lacking in content. A good perspective has been added with many posts
Davy - the early breakdown provided options for each outcome which I believe are only helpful to town (though, I don't see why anyone would help grinch except grandma but I don't get a grandma read either). Though I read human, I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too

Early vote TZP

Hedgy suspicion list based mostly around thinking THC and I are being theater kids. Please weigh in on other things that have been brought up!

Math: wolf!Math is very sneaky especially early game. I could go both ways but I'm inclined to read him as a human who's invested in the game but not enough to make strong pushes one way or another.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Doing Xiao and Toby together

I just straight up think the wolfing would have been missed, not failed, if Xiao was the Grynch--just hasn't been here enough. Toby has, and I think he'd be a legitimate lynch candidate today, particularly since missing inactives has come back to bite us recently. That said, I hope everything's okay with you bro.

Right now I think that BDS and Oricorio scoping each other out is genuine, and THC's BDS/Davy reads are genuine. Math I'm not sure on.

From most to least sus I'd say:
1. Xiao
2. Oricorio
3. THC
4. BDS
5. Toby
6. Math
7. Davy

I think Davy's more likely Grandma than wolf. I'd be happy to cast a vote for Math or Toby but no one has voted for them yet, so I'm holding off to see if anyone else shows up to vote.

[Oricorio]

Back in time for EoD!

I don't think they're town, I think they could be acting as town by subtly telling everyone they didn't get the grinch PM

Give me a little bit I'll answer the other points here too

Yeah, I meant that you didn't think they were town. Still, if you really were ninja'd by me, it makes your choice of TZP something other than self-pres

Also appreciate the effort from TZP, unvote for now. Come to think of it, their earlier attitude was a bit audacious for a wolf anyway

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The "wolfing failed" message is specific to hitting Frosty/Grandma. If the wolfing was missed, it would also specify there was no wolfing. That was one of the changes I specifically requested during host sign-ups, IIRC.

Also, whoever we end up lynching, we should at least have at least three votes for them to avoid an accidental multi-KITB (which could unknowingly include Grandma).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, TZP, I've voted for Math. I could potentially be persuaded to change to Xiao (Toby's messaged seemed genuine so I don't think he's intentionally laying low as a strategy as wolf/Grandma), but I haven't seen enough Math to fully convince me he's human.

[Oricorio]

Probably leaning between a davy and math vote. The problem if davy is Grandma is that Grandma will only be ousted by the time that town has already basically lost anyway (assuming no Grinch lynch), so if davy is a wolf not considering him in the long run could be gameending – however, the self-vote is just too unusual for a lone wolf so I'm fine with having that discussion tomorrow. The problem with math is he'll basically always be a shruglynch, and since we have little room for error it'll always feel uncomfortable to use one of our (likely) only two lynches on him. Toby has still basically done nothing, although TZP raises a good point that Xiao is so inactive that they might not have even submitted the kill if they were the Grinch.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also, TZP, I've voted for Math. I could potentially be persuaded to change to Xiao (Toby's messaged seemed genuine so I don't think he's intentionally laying low as a strategy as wolf/Grandma), but I haven't seen enough Math to fully convince me he's human.

Thanks BDS, I guess I missed that. Also to be clear, I don't think Toby is intentionally laying low, I'm quite confident he has plenty of stuff going on irl right now, I just think that wolf!Toby would at the very least send in a wolfing given that this is the case. If we don't feel strongly about anyone else he'd be a decent option (and if he's human it sounds like he might even thank us for it).

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Will vote Math in the next 15 mins unless someone makes a strong case otherwise

[SpecsFlyer17]

<15 minutes until D1 ends.

TZP: 1 vote (Math)
Math: 1 vote (BDS)
davy: 1 vote (davy)
BDS: 1 vote (THC)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.

[Oricorio]

Eh, shruglynch, but for now I don't see any better options. math Hopefully this ends the game, but if not, Toby and Xiao really need to step up their game in the next couple of phases if town is to win.

[Oricorio]

Plus, I do feel good about BDS and TZP right now, so that's something in favor of the math wagon I guess.

[therealmathguy]

Oricorio thoughts:
Much of early discussion is on grandma which I still find strange since it seems like a given to not lynch grandma. Much of it feels mechanical until BDS suggests figuring out grandma's identity and it opens up strategically (part of the perspective I mentioned).

I've only seen one GTH (unless I missed one) and that was early on.

Proceeds to elaborate on jester mindset, which now feels more helpful, but still honing in on the third party. Oricorio has fixated on third party roles before in the lantern game while being said third party, but this one is different since grandma has no value to town. GTH not grandma

Calls out davy for self voting. Good point, as only one role benefits from this.

Opinions of THC and BDS are different from mine. Given my weak stance on THC, I can't argue with that but I'll expand on BDS soon

Oricorio also suspects wolf Toby. I think toby's "I shouldn't have played this game" post stands out as more of a grandma post than wolf