TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The rest of it is clarifying why he thinks davy is Grandma, which, while I think he may be onto something there (and as he originally posted that suspicion N1, so it's not like he miraculously figured it out by trying to wolf davy) I don't particularly care for it.

I don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that wolf!THC would think Davy was Grandma, and wolf Davy to try and figure if Davy is actually Grandma without wasting his seering (correctly deducing Grandma AND seering a special N1 would be quite a high-risk-high-reward play for the wolf).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I... also think it's entirely possible for wolf!THC to think Davy was Grandma and claim to him (to be fair, it wouldn't entirely impossible to pass it off as a reaction test if THC was wrong about his assumption), possibly formulating a plan to deliberately make Davy look suspicious by jumping on an intentionally-flimsy suspicion.

If that's the case though (and I admit this is an unlikely hypothetical), it likely means that Frosty was the one hit N1, which gives the wolf a (relatively) safe lynch to push.

[Oricorio]

I'm not going to quote all of davy's posts, since there are so many of them that it would be frustrating with this site's (lack of a) multiquote feature plus I've already responded to most of them anyway, so I'll just post some thoughts as I ctrl+F through his ISO.

Opener is mechanical discussion, which seems to be a pretty standard opener for this site (besides things like "I'll post later"). Nothing too questionable there, besides the claim that a green check would be a clear that was later clarified by the host. The second post is pretty much entirely mechanics as well. It's only the fourth post where he starts to talk about the game, and it's just townreading the player who townreads him and wolfreading me for talking about Grandma (which is a little weird, he was willing to engage in mechanical discussion with me before but he now suddenly wolfreads me for it?). Oh, and also wolfleans BDS but it's also a sheep from THC. I mean, it's weird that he basically took two reads from THC and only added a wolflean on me. I mean, there was little else to talk about at the time but he didn't even come up with his own reasons for wolfreading BDS! Then a little back and forth with me, refuses to say anything interesting about TZP or math. Then at SoD, more mechanics, "Though the possibility of the Grinch and Grandma teaming up now worries me..." reads almost like an invitation but whatever

Page 2. Tries to clarify his read on BDS but ends up walking a lot of it back with little elaboration. "Slight wolflean" on TZP, "he just agreed with what was said earlier" doesn't that kind of describe you at the beginning of the game? (Still, we seem to have the same read on the slot) Then a response to math, then a readslist which I already ripped apart. Then a self-vote, just why? Self-voting can sometimes advance wolves' strategies, but when there's only one wolf it's flat-out playing against wincon. This is what made me think he had to be Grandma, although self voting could make that too obvious (then again, WIFOM). I don't buy his excuse, I mean unlike that game there aren't even enough wolves to do a wolf rush like what happened to me! davy really needs to answer for this.

[therealmathguy]

Oh, his only post on the second post is a defense from math's point (though also a bit weird in that the same point can be used against them?) Yeah, I think TZP is a wolflean, even if there are a couple things that make me think twice.

Well, I think it's supposed to be more sarcastic even if it is true lol. But the strategic implications are different now so there's still a shred of validity to my observation.

I'm catching up now on stuff from today and will post thoughts/sus list soon

[Oricorio]

Finally, time to do BDS! (Xiao has still basically done nothing so skipping him) Might have to do the thing I did with davy for page 2, but there's not too much on page 1

Makes sense. Feels sorta like a softball comment, but it doesn't hurt to spell things out explicitly sometimes.

Though, to build on your comment, we should definitely try to suss out who Grandma is specifically so we can avoid the possibility of accidentally lynching Grandma.
I might be misreading this, but what you're saying is that it's not worth one of the specials claiming to set up an alliance? That makes sense, and if that's the case I agree with you there, but just wanted to clarify.

Like both Davy/Oricorio have said, since there isn't any way for a player to be made red (only the Grinch can chance color if he hits Santa), if we get a red seering that's our best bet for a lynch. If Rudolph gets a red seering it may be worth it for Rudolph to contact a random player they trust to reveal the red seering instead of revealing the results themselves—since there's only one wolf there shouldn't be any false claiming shenanigans (and if the player they claim to is the Grinch, Rudolph would die either way).

This is basically just agreeing with me and davy, so I can see why some say this is a bit softball.

If I had to make a guess:
- Toby and Xiao are European so probably didn't realize the game had started, were/are asleep, and should hopefully be awake within the next few hours.
- THC is American but usually works night shift (IIRC) so he'll hopefully be on soon as well.
- Math? idk
It'll be good to keep that in mind then.

Also: if the specials are ever in danger of being lynched, they should claim, but likely shouldn't claim otherwise unless we know it's going to be our final lynch.

Standard mechanics/time zone info, nothing of interest here.

Might change after catching up, but my reads on Davy after his initial posts have been neutral. I feel like his early posts don't really lean one way or another.
Which is part of the reason why lynching Grandma is never the right call (unless I'm missing some sort of niche application where it can benefit us). Feels a bit redundant to bring this up.
It seems like you just skimmed over my posts without actually realizing that I added additional content other than just replying to the quotes.Based on your post, I understand your reasoning for why you think I'm the Grinch, but why do you think Davy might be Grandma? That sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere, especially with how many players hadn't made substantial posts yet as of your post.
On the other hand, I definitely feel that it's likely to have been faked—but if it is, I imagine THC could be Grandma, not the Grinch, since Grandma's role description and role PM also explicitly mentions a wolfing and posing such a question would be a way to distance from that.

Also, given that the possibility of losing a special to a wolfing was mentioned several times (especially by Davy, see this post for an example just above THC's post), I personally find it a bit difficult to believe it was a genuine question from THC, unless he was speedskimming the whole thread.
This is a good observation.

Mostly just following from their previous post and defending from THC. Also starts the argument that THC could be Grandma. The last sentence seems to be the most interesting, as there is absolutely no follow-through on it in their later posts and it doesn't seem to effect their read on davy or me.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Opening post, which I believe I have covered before. To put it simply, that is a strange question to ask as a wolf, especially as it's clarified in the wolf's role PM, and faking it would require a large amount of refuge in audacity that you don't really see from solo wolves. Also, given that they are responding to someone else's post, this doesn't look like a planned opener.

A few of these stances are a little strange though. I don't know why Grandma would try to team up with town when achieving their wincon is anti-town, and a Grinch-Grandma "alliance" (well, as much of an alliance as you can get with one side wanting to lynch the other) seems more likely given that their wincons are mutually beneficial. Consider this: If we lynch the Grinch today, Grandma automatically loses, so Grandma would want to prevent that from happening. I believe davy already pointed out the flaws in logic in the second point, and I won't repeat that here. In my game as  the Strange Man, I was posting pro-Strange Man propaganda (as TZP pointed out), and this does feel like "pro-Grandma propaganda" in a sense. Fourth point is standard hedging on inactive players, and third is a bit vague (generally I'd like to see examples of what you mean when you say "BDS's responses have felt reactionary at best"

Knowing that "there were mentions of it elsewhere" makes the question a bit weird, though if THC knew it was in the Grinch's role PM then he would be less likely to pose it as Grandma, at least. The rest of it is clarifying why he thinks davy is Grandma, which, while I think he may be onto something there (and as he originally posted that suspicion N1, so it's not like he miraculously figured it out by trying to wolf davy) I don't particularly care for it.

Overall, there are things that are town-indicative and things that are Grandma-indicative, but nothing wolf-indicative, so I'm not interested in pursuing a lynch on THC today.

I'm at work right now, so I don't have a lot of time, but I just wanted to clear up this one thing. First off, I already explained why I think davy is Grandma. Other than myself, his posts have been the most pro-Grandma. As for why I've been so pro-Grandma, I realized the issue. I'm thinking about it as myself, not as a normal person. When I'm in a game with neutral that has a wincon that doesn't immediately end the game, I want the neutral to win no matter what side I'm on. And if I'm the neutral, I would side with Town, even if it's against my best interest. So from that perspective, it makes perfect sense to think Grandma would side with Town. But from a normal person perspective, which the rest of you (likely including Grandma) have, it does make more sense for Grandma to team up with the Grinch. It just didn't occur to me before because I'm not good at seeing things from a normal perspective rather than my own. Anyway, I'll respond to more later, but it will he after work hours from now.

[Oricorio]

Alright, going through page 2:

Gives TZP a town lean for a "good observation", for whatever reason didn't extend that to davy. davy immediately goes to wolf lean despite being neutral just a couple posts ago? (BDS, if you could explain this progression, it'd be nice) They have also been pretty static on the TZP/davy pairing ever since. Thinks that Grandma is laying low, but doesn't seem to follow through on it. Does clarify the TZP read, so there's that. More pushing on THC and davy, then votes math (?). Then back and forth about Grandma, and more TZP discussion (notably, that is the only ISO analysis of mine that they felt the need to comment on)

Overall, the weird thing about BDS's ISO is that half of it is all over the place and the other half is oddly static, and those two sides don't really mix together at all. It's not particularly wolfy in isolation, just strange, and I'd like BDS to clarify a lot of their actions here.

[Oricorio]

For now, TZP. I did have a townlean earlier, but that was mostly because after math pointed it out I thought their not knowing the setup was genuine (something I still believe). However, I then realized that that wasn't necessarily town indicative *cough*last game*cough* and after looking at their ISO, yeah it doesn't look too good. davy is wolfier overall, but there's a good chance he's Grandma so I wouldn't feel comfortable voting there for now. That said, I'm not 100% set on this vote and I would like to hear TZP's defense.

[therealmathguy]

Suspicion list:

Wolf (or grandma?) lean
TZP/THC - grouping them as I have the same reasoning. Both did a rule clarification/question (as did I, so I'm aware I'm not immune from this criticism either) that stands out as a little "I'm town, don't look at me" type of thing. Not a strong lean

Neutral
Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation. Could be an easy way to hop on the human train without giving away other strategies. But other mechanical conversation has good perspectives that could drive positive strategy (even if a lot of it is still focused on grandma) so probably not
Xiao/Toby - idk

Human lean
BDS - I disagree with those that said BDS's posts has been reactionary or lacking in content. A good perspective has been added with many posts
Davy - the early breakdown provided options for each outcome which I believe are only helpful to town (though, I don't see why anyone would help grinch except grandma but I don't get a grandma read either). Though I read human, I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too

Early vote TZP

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also starts the argument that THC could be Grandma. The last sentence seems to be the most interesting, as there is absolutely no follow-through on it in their later posts and it doesn't seem to effect their read on davy or me.

The reason I haven't followed up with it is because I feel it hasn't really gone anywhere—at least not a point where I believe it enough ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Gives TZP a town lean for a "good observation", for whatever reason didn't extend that to davy.

Davy's observation felt more alignment neutral, while TZP's felt more human-supportive. Perhaps it would've been more accurate to say "interesting observation" re: Davy's observation about you I was quoting.

davy immediately goes to wolf lean despite being neutral just a couple posts ago? (BDS, if you could explain this progression, it'd be nice)

The difference is that Davy suddenly—and rather unexpectedly—jumped on what I felt was THC's flimsy accusation toward me. From THC I could feel it making sense, but it felt pretty strange for Davy to be supporting it too.

They have also been pretty static on the TZP/davy pairing ever since.

What do you mean by "TZP/davy pairing"? I'm guessing you mean "THC/davy"?

Thinks that Grandma is laying low, but doesn't seem to follow through on it.

Saying "this could be possible" is different from "I think this is likely." I've always been a big proponent of exploring all possibilities even if they're relatively unlikely.

More pushing on THC and davy, then votes math (?).

I did explain that. Given Math's suspicion list, I feel confident keeping my vote on Math for now. At the same time, him voting for TZP right after Oricorio almost feels too obviously suspicious.

Then back and forth about Grandma, and more TZP discussion (notably, that is the only ISO analysis of mine that they felt the need to comment on)

Do you mean THC? If you actually do mean TZP, then I can't seem to find what you're talking about.


I'm gonna follow this up with another post (just need to pull some quotes). I was gonna wait to make that post, but I've noticed something twice now that I feel like I need to point out.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

One more quick post:

Spoiler

Suspicion list:

Wolf (or grandma?) lean
TZP/THC - grouping them as I have the same reasoning. Both did a rule clarification/question (as did I, so I'm aware I'm not immune from this criticism either) that stands out as a little "I'm town, don't look at me" type of thing. Not a strong lean

Neutral
Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation. Could be an easy way to hop on the human train without giving away other strategies. But other mechanical conversation has good perspectives that could drive positive strategy (even if a lot of it is still focused on grandma) so probably not
Xiao/Toby - idk

Human lean
BDS - I disagree with those that said BDS's posts has been reactionary or lacking in content. A good perspective has been added with many posts
Davy - the early breakdown provided options for each outcome which I believe are only helpful to town (though, I don't see why anyone would help grinch except grandma but I don't get a grandma read either). Though I read human, I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too

[close]

Early vote TZP

Why TZP over THC?

Overall, feels like a soft sort of suspicion list, especially when he says "not a strong lean" on BOTH his top suspicions group together. Focuses a bit too much on things I wouldn't expect, mostly notably: "Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation," "Davy - I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too."

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Something I noticed earlier (circa 9pm Pacific Time, about 2-3 hours ago) was that Oricorio seemed to parrot something I said rather unexpectedly. I sent a PM to Xiao (who did not respond) pointing this out because I wasn't ready to bring it up publicly yet—I wanted to see if Oricorio would keep doing it or if it was a one-time thing.

When Toby asked who or what he should focus on analyzing to help him catch up, Oricorio said this:

You probably should look at davy, as well as perhaps TZP and BDS who seem to be a bit divisive (though I GTH town on both)

This was my response to Toby:

I'm curious what you think about the THC/Davy dynamic.

When Xiao popped into the thread, this is what Oricorio said:

Then say something not worthless. What are your thoughts on the THC/davy situation?

Why did Oricorio pivot from recommending scrutiny on davy, TZP, and me to Toby, to recommending scrutiny on THC/davy (what I suggested to Toby) to Xiao? Worth noting is that I was going to recommend the same thing to Xiao, but felt it was redundant with me already mentioning it to Toby—but I decided against posting it; then Oricorio made his post.

If this was a one-off thing it wouldn't worry me too much (it would be more of a weird footnote if anything else popped up later), but then this immediately stood out to me:

Consider this: If we lynch the Grinch today, Grandma automatically loses, so Grandma would want to prevent that from happening.

I feel like I've seen this before.

Do they need to be? Grandma wants to keep the Grinch alive for as long as possible so Grandma has more chances to get  lynched (if we lynch the Grinch today that's no good for Grandma ), and the Grinch likely wouldn't go so hard toward pushing Grandma, rather than letting Grandma get themselves lynched.

(insert "can I copy your homework" meme here)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Oricorio knows I already had a human lean on him, and it almost feels like he's subtly trying to reinforce that.

Plus, in his post(s) where he goes over all my posts thus far, some of his questions to me feel like they have especially obvious answers—like they're designed to be "throw BDS a bone" questions (that he likely already knows the answer to) rather than questions that could lead to a genuine suspicion if he doesn't like my answers.

Especially with:

davy immediately goes to wolf lean despite being neutral just a couple posts ago? (BDS, if you could explain this progression, it'd be nice)

Feels weird to bring this up when I've already mentioned a few times how I thought it was weird how Davy jumped on THC's suspicion of me and then, later, backed off just as quickly.

And Oricorio questioning my vote on Math despite what I thought was explaining my reasoning fairly clearly (didn't want to vote for THC/Davy in case one of them is Grandma).

[Oricorio]

Something I noticed earlier (circa 9pm Pacific Time, about 2-3 hours ago) was that Oricorio seemed to parrot something I said rather unexpectedly. I sent a PM to Xiao (who did not respond) pointing this out because I wasn't ready to bring it up publicly yet—I wanted to see if Oricorio would keep doing it or if it was a one-time thing.

When Toby asked who or what he should focus on analyzing to help him catch up, Oricorio said this:
This was my response to Toby:
When Xiao popped into the thread, this is what Oricorio said:
Why did Oricorio pivot from recommending scrutiny on davy, TZP, and me to Toby, to recommending scrutiny on THC/davy (what I suggested to Toby) to Xiao? Worth noting is that I was going to recommend the same thing to Xiao, but felt it was redundant with me already mentioning it to Toby—but I decided against posting it; then Oricorio made his post.

If this was a one-off thing it wouldn't worry me too much (it would be more of a weird footnote if anything else popped up later), but then this immediately stood out to me:I feel like I've seen this before.(insert "can I copy your homework" meme here)

The reason for the change was because of the change in thread climate; I wanted the inactive players to respond to what was going on in the thread more recently so they could contribute without having to read through the entire thread.

Also I did mean THC instead of TZP, ADHD

[Oricorio]

Oricorio knows I already had a human lean on him, and it almost feels like he's subtly trying to reinforce that.

Plus, in his post(s) where he goes over all my posts thus far, some of his questions to me feel like they have especially obvious answers—like they're designed to be "throw BDS a bone" questions (that he likely already knows the answer to) rather than questions that could lead to a genuine suspicion if he doesn't like my answers.

Especially with:Feels weird to bring this up when I've already mentioned a few times how I thought it was weird how Davy jumped on THC's suspicion of me and then, later, backed off just as quickly.

And Oricorio questioning my vote on Math despite what I thought was explaining my reasoning fairly clearly (didn't want to vote for THC/Davy in case one of them is Grandma).

It was mainly weird because you used the same wording for both davy and TZP, so the difference in progression between the two was stark. And the main thing about math is you don't seem to have commented on math in most of your posts, making it look like it came out of nowhere in the greater scheme of your progression. But as I said, these were weird, not necessarily wolfy