TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[Oricorio]

Oricorio, in your posts you've referred to a thunderdome and F3. What do those mean? Is F3 final three?

A thunderdome is basically a 1v1, as in if we have two red checks it basically guarantees a wolf is between them. F3 is final three yes.

[SpecsFlyer17]

@SpecsFlyer17 what happens if Santa tries to nice-list the Grynch?

Effectively nothing. Technically it would prevent the Grinch from naughty-listing himself.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

[Oricorio]

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

I would also be wary of Grandma claiming Seer, as a common way for such roles to achieve win condition is to try to bait the CC.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

1. davy's initial post reads very town to me. He definitely feels like the person I trust most as of now. I could definitely see him being Grandma, but imo Grandma is more likely to team with town than with the Grinch, anyway.

Might change after catching up, but my reads on Davy after his initial posts have been neutral. I feel like his early posts don't really lean one way or another.

2. BDS and Oricorio both talked about lynching Grandma as being bad, as if she doesn't get ousted from the game after D2 anyway.

Which is part of the reason why lynching Grandma is never the right call (unless I'm missing some sort of niche application where it can benefit us). Feels a bit redundant to bring this up.

3. On top of that, while Oricorio has certainly added a lot to discuss about, BDS's responses have felt reactionary at best. They don't seem to adding any meaningful commentary on what they're responding to, and don't even always have more to say than what basically amounts to "Yeah, that makes sense".

It seems like you just skimmed over my posts without actually realizing that I added additional content other than just replying to the quotes.

If Rudolph gets a red seering it may be worth it for Rudolph to contact a random player they trust to reveal the red seering instead of revealing the results themselves—since there's only one wolf there shouldn't be any false claiming shenanigans (and if the player they claim to is the Grinch, Rudolph would die either way).

Also: if the specials are ever in danger of being lynched, they should claim, but likely shouldn't claim otherwise unless we know it's going to be our final lynch.

In the spirit of Oricorio, and since I never actually did this for him when he asked before, I shall give a GTH. GTH BDS is Grinch and davy is Grandma.

Based on your post, I understand your reasoning for why you think I'm the Grinch, but why do you think Davy might be Grandma? That sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere, especially with how many players hadn't made substantial posts yet as of your post.

This is a good look for THC. Firstly, it's a bold thing for a wolf to ask, secondly, the Grinch's role PM (shown in the OP) explicitly mentions a wolfing. Of course, this kind of thing can be faked, but it would still be an unusual opener for a wolf.

On the other hand, I definitely feel that it's likely to have been faked—but if it is, I imagine THC could be Grandma, not the Grinch, since Grandma's role description and role PM also explicitly mentions a wolfing and posing such a question would be a way to distance from that.

Also, given that the possibility of losing a special to a wolfing was mentioned several times (especially by Davy, see this post for an example just above THC's post), I personally find it a bit difficult to believe it was a genuine question from THC, unless he was speedskimming the whole thread.

3 of Oricorio's initial 4 posts have been about Grandma. I can't help but be reminded of Lantern game where Oricorio kept talking about the Lanterns when he was the Strange Man. Feels like this is either a repeat of that, or Oricorio being the Grinch deliberately trying to make us think he's Grandma so he doesn't get lynched.

This is a good observation.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Both made one post, TZP's had nothing of substance. Math's had a mechanical question and some vague words. BDS's posts have a lot more content but not the substance to go with that, which I why I suspect him more.

Feels strange for you to be doubling down on this. I can understand why THC might have missed the additional content of my posts—especially so if he's Grandma and doing it intentionally—because the fact there are a lot of quotes in my posts makes it seem (on a quick glance) like that content is replying to the quotes rather than extra. However, I don't think you have as much of an excuse other than trying to piggyback on THC while letting him take most of the blame if it turns out wrong.

I'm not sure if there's any way to use that info to deduce who is the grinch and who is either of the other roles...

The Grinch wants to try and lynch Grandma. It's very possible they could try to push a lynch on whoever they tried to wolf today, with humans being none the wiser (especially if Frosty was the wolfing target and is the one who ends up getting lynched).

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

Good observation. Human lean on TZP so far.

I would also be wary of Grandma claiming Seer, as a common way for such roles to achieve win condition is to try to bait the CC.

Good to keep in mind, but in this specific game I don't think that will be an issue. The Grinch doesn't want to claim seer because (unless the Grinch can confirm that the real seer is dead) it basically puts a giant target on their back for a 50/50. By the point of the game where the Grinch might want to claim seer, Grandma will have already been ejected from the game; thus, I don't think Grandma would ever want to claim seer since it would basically guarantee not being lynched.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

So far, my overall player thoughts are:
Slight wolf lean on Davy and THC (feels like THC could be Grandma and Davy could be piggybacking on that), slight human lean on TZP and Oricorio.

Xiao, Toby, and Math have not yet posted enough for me to say more.

[Oricorio]

Feels strange for you to be doubling down on this. I can understand why THC might have missed the additional content of my posts—especially so if he's Grandma and doing it intentionally—because the fact there are a lot of quotes in my posts makes it seem (on a quick glance) like that content is replying to the quotes rather than extra. However, I don't think you have as much of an excuse other than trying to piggyback on THC while letting him take most of the blame if it turns out wrong.
The Grinch wants to try and lynch Grandma. It's very possible they could try to push a lynch on whoever they tried to wolf today, with humans being none the wiser (especially if Frosty was the wolfing target and is the one who ends up getting lynched).
Good observation. Human lean on TZP so far.
Good to keep in mind, but in this specific game I don't think that will be an issue. The Grinch doesn't want to claim seer because (unless the Grinch can confirm that the real seer is dead) it basically puts a giant target on their back for a 50/50. By the point of the game where the Grinch might want to claim seer, Grandma will have already been ejected from the game; thus, I don't think Grandma would ever want to claim seer since it would basically guarantee not being lynched.

At least on other sites, Jesters often play by faking a red check on another player. If it goes well, this will either draw the real cop/seer to CC and get the Jester lynched, or the Jester will be exposed once it is revealed by the flip that their check is fake (although if Grandma hopes for the latter to happen, they have to fakeclaim today, not that it's reliable here in the first place due to the presence of a hidden miller) That's just one way to play Jester though, and it's not exactly a hard wincon to achieve. It means we may have to think twice about "obvious" lynches, which does hurt us when we have so few to work with, although they're at least guaranteed to be ejected so there is that going for them.

Anyway, there is a way to get information about who is on the naughty list: if the wagons are 4-4, anyone on the one that goes over is guaranteed to have not been on the naughty list. Whether it's worth doing that just for basically confirming "one of these three people is town", which we know to be true based on setup alone, well probably not.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

At least on other sites, Jesters often play by faking a red check on another player. If it goes well, this will either draw the real cop/seer to CC and get the Jester lynched, or the Jester will be exposed once it is revealed by the flip that their check is fake (although if Grandma hopes for the latter to happen, they have to fakeclaim today, not that it's reliable here in the first place due to the presence of a hidden miller) That's just one way to play Jester though, and it's not exactly a hard wincon to achieve. It means we may have to think twice about "obvious" lynches, which does hurt us when we have so few to work with, although they're at least guaranteed to be ejected so there is that going for them.

Yeah, that's part of the reason why we need to dedicate effort into trying to find out who Grandma is in addition to who the Grinch is—on top of the usual wolfhunting shenanigans, we don't know whether someone is deliberately acting suspicious because they're Grandma or because that's just how they'd normally act (I comment I've made in the past two games has been how everyone was acting so darn suspicious).

Anyway, there is a way to get information about who is on the naughty list: if the wagons are 4-4, anyone on the one that goes over is guaranteed to have not been on the naughty list. Whether it's worth doing that just for basically confirming "one of these three people is town", which we know to be true based on setup alone, well probably not.

A neat idea, but aside from the difficult of getting town to agree on two lynch possibilities, or the difficulty of wrangling everybody to vote in a specific way, that feels like it could easily exploited by the Grinch and/or Grandma.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, a thought: Grandma could also deliberately be trying to lay low in hopes we lynch them as an inactive lynch (and they deliberately wouldn't fight back or object, or just zone out completely). This possibility gets less likely the more people post, but something to consider.

[Oricorio]

Also, a thought: Grandma could also deliberately be trying to lay low in hopes we lynch them as an inactive lynch (and they deliberately wouldn't fight back or object, or just zone out completely). This possibility gets less likely the more people post, but something to consider.

I've never actually seen a Jester play like this, mainly because it takes the process out of their hands when getting mislynched is usually pretty easy. Granted, site meta may be different here

[Oricorio]

I've never actually seen a Jester play like this, mainly because it takes the process out of their hands when getting mislynched is usually pretty easy. Granted, site meta may be different here

And you especially have to consider that Grandma is on a timer, so playing passively would probably not be the best idea. They can also be potentially outed by the Seer, so time is not on their side (although whether the Seer would out to prevent Grandma from achieving wincon is another question entirely, as they'd then be a sitting duck for the Grinch)

[therealmathguy]

A bit of a meh post, while the former is something that wouldn't be terribly relevant to a wolf (although it could influence their strategy) it ends with a vague note on "unusual voting patterns". Still, this doesn't seem to be outside math's typical meta (even if I've only seen town!math once)

To specify, an example of an unusual voting pattern in my interpretation would be a player voting for someone that seemingly doesn't swing things but turns out to be the decider when naughty list is factored in

[therealmathguy]

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

[Oricorio]

To specify, an example of an unusual voting pattern in my interpretation would be a player voting for someone that seemingly doesn't swing things but turns out to be the decider when naughty list is factored in

But how exactly would that happen? A vote that is decided by the naughty list would essentially be a vote that was tied otherwise, in which case every vote would have been "decisive" anyway