TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[TWG Luigi]

TheZeldaPianist275 was seered green

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I feel confident now saying that Toby and TZP aren't wolves together, unless we genuinely believe that Toby's seering was redirected.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Now, to me, the question is who of Toby, THC, and Math are the wolves?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Arguments For/Against Toby being a wolf:
+ His behavior this phase has been especially weird with him strawmaning it up against me to the max. Aside from taking a second look at Math, he hasn't done much else to analyze other people this phase.
+ Possibly intentionally set up the Waluigi slip—he proposed a plan that he stated would have led to us finding out the real human seer, which means he could have intentionally tanked Waluigi's credibility. Makes sense if Toby/THC are the wolves.
+ If Toby/THC are wolves, that explains why Toby was so antsy to figure out which of the seers N1P2 trusted—if N1P2 had up and said he trusted Luigi more, that means THC was unlikely to have been revived.
- I still don't think Toby would let the Waluigi slip happen intentionally.
- I'm not sure if Toby would let THC wolf himself
- The possibility of Toby/Math feels like a weak connection to me.

Similar posts for other players coming soon.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

TheZeldaPianist275 was seered green

Thanks Xiao!

General thoughts on each individual person:

Toby: I have been unsure and waffley about you the entire game, but I don't think I can afford to hedge that any longer: I think you're acting very wolfy. I disagree with BDS that Toby's misrepresenting BDS' accusations, or making things up out of whole cloth, but he hasn't been a wolf since the start of the revival and his play this game feels distinct from human!Toby. I will probably vote him today unless someone has a convincing explanation for what is going on with the Xiao wolfing/the CO's identity being hidden up until this exact point.
THC: I don't know lmao.
Math: I actually could see the Xiao thing being a potential Math wolf set up. If Math tried to seed doubt in the human alliance by wolfing Xiao off of a lucky seering, and N1P2 didn't take the bait, I think it makes a lot of sense for him to bring this to the table now that he has died to try to stick BDS with a bill.
BDS: Leaning strongly away from seriously considering him now, but I will say that I don't like how a significant amount of his defenses are self-metaing. "I run a tight ship" and all that. If you're aware of your own tendencies enough to point them out to other people, you're aware of them enough to leverage them into wolf play.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Arguments For/Against THC being a wolf:
+ THC is absolutely the type of player to have wolfed himself, not to mention absolutely could have made the Waluigi slip either intentionally or unintentionally.
+ THC could have picked up on Xiao being the CO solely on the fact that N1P2 and I both changed our votes away from Xiao. Remember the Assassin Game where THC was oddly insistent on himself being a ward (which, as it so happened, was actually true) based on very little information. It's not a stretch to think THC would make such an assumption about Xiao and run with it even before getting more concrete proof.
+ As Toby pointed out, hasn't seemed very interested in actually wolfhunting this phase.
+ Placed a vote on Math despite the fact that he should've known the risk of a wolf rush.
- It's hard to say who else would've been ok with THC wolfing himself, unless THC just completely jumped the gun against his partner's wishes.
- Has been defending me this phase despite it seeming to be a potentially popular lynch. Wolf THC would probably run with it or at least be a lot more ambivalent toward it.
- Placed a vote on Math despite the fact that he should've known the risk of a wolf rush (yes, this goes both ways).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

- I still don't think Toby would let the Waluigi slip happen intentionally.

Correction: I don't think the Waluigi slip was unintentional if Toby was a wolf. I don't think Toby would have let his partner make an unintentional mistake for similar reasons as myself.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Arguments For/Against Math being a wolf:
+ Originally seemed to be defending me, but suddenly did a 360 and started gaining suspicion on me after both Toby and TZP had expressed doubts about me. Plus, a lot of his current arguments against me feel rather flimsy.
+ If Math/THC is the pairing I think THC absolutely would've gotten away with wolfing himself, as THC would be the "senior" wolf in that pair.
+ TZP/Math as wolves would explain why they were both strongly pushing a Specs lynch (
- Would wolves have claimed they seered Math green when Waluigi's credibility was already shaky? Especially true if Math is the red wolf (I think TZP/Math would be green/red and Math/THC would be green/red as well; naming Math as the seering would be incredibly risky if THC was already dead in a Math/THC pair, and risky as TZP/Math if Math was actually the red wolf).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I disagree with BDS that Toby's misrepresenting BDS' accusations, or making things up out of whole cloth

Toby has actively misrepresented this quote of mine twice despite me already explaining it after the first "misunderstanding":

with you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer

Based on context clues (especially the word "which") I think it's fairly reasonable to understand that, despite the awkward wording, the meaning of this sentence is "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer."

Toby seems to have taken it to mean "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal the identity of TWG Luigi, the legit seer."

And he did it again despite me explaining it.

I didn't say that in the post you quoted.
Yes, which is what I said in the post you quoted.
My wording may have been a bit awkward on that. I understand any confusion.

Under the "not true" section here. It is definitely true that Toby asked N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TheZeldaPianist275 was seered green

There's less than an hour until the end of the phase; if you have anything you wanna say, it'd be good for us to hear it. Even if ya can't vote, you still should have a say in things.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I still want to vote Toby but at the same time I can't shake the idea of Math being a wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TZP suddenly jumping on the "yes I'm probably gonna vote Toby" train is a bit weird, and especially with him having no thoughts on THC. I don't think a TZP vote is a good idea, especially not today, but TZP/Math could be a possibility based on this.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Phase ends in 45 minutes.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I don't think Toby/Math is a likely pair, especially because Toby's reaction to my "slip" was assuming Math was the CO. There's also the Waluigi PM with the spaced-out question mark (lol), though that's circumstantial evidence and could have easily been faked.

So most likely wolf pairs are:
- Toby/THC
- TZP/Math
- Math/THC

Feeling 70% Toby and 30% Math. Waluigi's Math "seering" just feels odd with either of these pairings (Math as red wolf with TZP/Math and Math as green wolf with dead THC in Math/THC). With ~30 minutes left in the phase I can likely say I'm going to be voting Toby.

[Toby]

Toby has actively misrepresented this quote of mine twice despite me already explaining it after the first "misunderstanding":Based on context clues (especially the word "which") I think it's fairly reasonable to understand that, despite the awkward wording, the meaning of this sentence is "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer."

Toby seems to have taken it to mean "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal the identity of TWG Luigi, the legit seer."

And he did it again despite me explaining it.Under the "not true" section here. It is definitely true that Toby asked N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer.

Yeah I did misunderstand what you meant by it due to the awkward wording. I thought you were saying I was pushing N1P2 to reveal the identity of the player behind Luigi

The second time I quoted it was in response to you asking me to quote what I was referencing as 'not true' I could have clarified that it was since cleared up.

I wouldn't say I was actively misrepresenting - I fair enough misunderstood your angle the first time, and the second time was in response to you wanting to know what I had labelled as not true.

-

Im leaning between BDS/math but going to take a look at TZPs posts again to see if anything sticks out to me. THC has been odd this phase and especially by having no fear with placing the first vote I wonder if that was an indication of alignment. THC also feels like a safe choice that if there are 2 wolves alive he could be paired with anyone.

Im slightly leaning BDS over math but will re read his posts and PMs with N1P2 again