TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC has been largely absent this phase which isn't great given the unknown about him still

I've been here reading everything. I just don't really have anything to say right now. I know I was asked to explain why I think revealing CO wouldn't be helpful, but I can't explain without giving away too much information.

[Toby]

You don't have anything to say in what could be mislynch or lose?

[therealmathguy]

I'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Reading through BDS' points I do mostly agree that a some of his play would have been different if we was a wolf - notably that given he knew the Chosen One and knew I was being seered, he easily could have redirected that result to red but I showed green. I mean it's possible the redirection was used night 1, or BDS wanted to keep the redirection to protect him/his partner rather than use it offensively.

You know I run a tight ship as a wolf. There's no way the Waluigi slip would have happened with me on the wolf team. Unless my partner was completely inactive and just Leeroy Jenkins'd it up in the thread, we 100% would've discussed it well ahead of time.

That's similarly the reason I have hesitation of suspecting you as a wolf, though given that you came up with a plan to try and figure out which seer was the real seer, I could potentially see you agreeing to a plan to intentionally tank Waluigi's reputation, especially if THC was your wolf partner.

One point I don't get is how in PMs he was reading Oricorio as human but then in topic they voted Oricorio? I'm not sure how that came about. Especially given the green seeding on him, I expected there to be something more that less N1P2/BDS to lead a lynch against Oricorio - I did also vote Oricorio but I wasn't town reading him in private at the same time

My opinions changed with new information and new discussion in the thread. The logic (which I believe I stated in the topic) was that if Specs was a wolf, Oricorio was his most likely partner, given that Oricorio and I were the only living players who hadn't voted for Specs.

[Toby]

As I said back when it initially happened, it feels like fishing for information over whether N1P2 bought your claim. As a wolf you would've known that Waluigi claimed to be THC, and getting an early answer on whether your claim was trusted would've told you whether or not THC was likely to be revived as a way of disproving your claim, which would likely inform your strategy going forward—if N1P2 had up and said he believed Luigi it wouldn't have been necessary to revive THC in the first place.

I literally said in topic we should be reviving THC multiple times. So logically your theory of me hoping THC wouldn't be revived doesn't make sense. If we didn't revive THC then it felt like the next chance we would have got to revive a different night kill, would have been night 4. (because we expected N1P2 to die night2, and would have to wait for a different kill night 3). I don't think there was any feeling that THC wasn't going to be revived?

I'm not sure why you would've thought N1P2 would've already been able to verify which seer was the real one, and again, why you would have just assumed N1P2 wouldn't have released it without you pressing for it.
Hypothetically speaking, if you wolf seered me green (or if I were the Miller, which you'd know ahead of time) you'd know I wasn't the CO. If you wolf seered Math blue then your initial instinct upon seeing my post would be to assume Math was the CO and I was trying to cover for him. Doubly so if you seered both of us.

N1P2 didn't post much this game, and I've never played with them before - and they gave the impression they were rusty and unsure what to do a lot of the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for updates. And it was my plan that I suggested so I wanted to make sure it was following through. I couldn't know there was a counterclaim, and as I had laid out when I initially suggested the plan, that if there was a counterclaim then it would have scored us a 50% chance of catching a wolf. I suggested the plan night 1, I didn't predict that the plan wouldn't move forward until day 1, or that the wolves were able to fake claim as a dead player.

Again, the fact that you need me to spell that out for you explicitly (when I know you're more than capable of reasoning it out for yourself) really feels like you're fishing for information on the CO's real identity.

I'm just not following why you think that I would publicly assume math is the Chosen One just because I possibly seered you and thought you weren't? I assumed your post was a ploy as you posted it with a clear mistake and didn't follow up. Interesting from the PM's between you and N1P2 - I don't understand why you told the alliance leader with the most secret knowledge in the game, to stay quiet and not post anything on their likely last living phase? They could have given us a legacy post or something

Hypothetically if you were a wolf and had gotten two blue seerings, you'd definitely already know the CO's identity after this point.

Is this human points towards me then since clearly I've not blue seered anyone, and I couldn't have assumed math was the CO based on seer results. I literally just saw your post and had a quick thought. TZP very much likely could be the CO, as could you - but I figured because you were public about PMing N1P2 it's unlikely

As I recall your playstyle tends to be pretty blunt regardless of role.

This just seems like a made up comment since you haven't seen me play anything but human in at least 5 years and I've definitely changed lol

Yes, wolves receive blue seerings for their results. So if you seered Math blue and saw my faked slip it might lead you to think Math was the CO and I was covering for him.

Or I just saw your fake slip and made a different assumption based on your fake slip

I'd like you to cite some examples since you haven't done so yet.

Not true:

you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

Don't make sense:

you seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point

(because if I'm a wolf I'm going to call out loud and clear who I think is the CO based on using my wolf seering to find out- right?)

Exaggerated:

The whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

I've only been wondering who the CO is this phase, not the entire game - based on the fact we don't know if we will get to another phase - also with 3 wolf seers and 3 redirections, it's likely the wolves found the seer already/used their redirection. If you can't see that it inclines me to believe that you know the wolves haven't use the redirection yet for some reason

I'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this.

To be honest, I've not really been conscious about if my honest opinion is going to come across as suspicious

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Re: Math, just gonna say these two things right out of the gate:
1. Again, for reasons I mentioned in my prior post, gamestate doesn't make sense if I were a wolf, and to think I'm a wolf would have to be ignoring all of these to various degrees. If I were a wolf, this would be an incredibly sloppy game for me, to say the least, with me intentionally dancing around wolves' win condition and deliberately sabotaging myself instead of making optimal, obvious plays.
2. Your logic is, quite frankly, assuming I'm a complete doofus I knew the CO's identity after they claimed. It would be incredibly stupid for me to wolf them immediately, rather than just wolf N1P2 (which would, again, put me into a better position of trust than what actually happened) and then wolf the CO which would give me significantly more plausible deniability.
3. At literally any point in the game Luigi could've revealed their identity with no input from me, which would throw a wrench into your proposal for my "master plan."
4. Again, N1P2 literally suggested lynching the CO. Both he and I had votes on Xiao before Xiao claimed, so it would've been incredibly easy for me to simply agree with him and keep pushing that lynch. Lynching the CO at the SL's suggestion then wolfing the SL would've been an absolute slam dunk if I were a wolf.

And, yes, Xiao is the CO. No reason to hide it now, given that everyone else has posted several times and seer results still haven't come out. I've had no direct contact with Xiao the whole game except sending Luigi a single PM this phase.

Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

Knowing that Xiao is the CO, you now know why revealing that information has no bearings on the lynch results. Even if the CO was still alive, it still wouldn't for reasons I mentioned earlier.

But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Both N1P2 and I voted for Xiao before Xiao claimed CO. Plus, Xiao only changed votes:
1. After I shot down the idea of lynching Xiao.
2. After Specs changed his vote to Math.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

As said above, this makes little sense to do if I were a wolf when wolfing N1P2 then Xiao would make more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

My speculation is that the wolves seered Xiao blue N1 and then seered Math blue N2, which would make sense especially if Toby was on the wolf team (given his reaction to my "slip"). If I were the miller that would also make sense why I wasn't seered or wolfed.

That being said, it's also perfectly possible that Xiao was a random wolfing. Wolves as Waluigi claimed to be THC and probably had some idea that might lead to THC being revived to disprove their claim. Wolfing N1P2 N2 would've meant that THC would've been the most logical wolfing candidate N3. Wolfing a random N2 would've kept THC alive (so either he's a wolf or you make people think he could still be a wolf).

And before you try and hit me with the "yes, that was your logic for not wolfing N1P2," again keep in mind that I knew the CO's identity and could have easily framed Toby as being red. I knew who would be seered as I made suggestions as to who should be seered (and if Luigi took my suggestion, TZP should've been seered).

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

I don't think the wolves are framing me at all; I think the wolves were working with the information they had.

Worth noting is that I don't think TZP has released any of his PMs with N1P2 (correct me if I'm wrong). I don't imagine N1P2 told TZP that Xiao was the CO, but it seems like this is a thread that's been oddly ignored.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

Again, this supposed plan would be completely dashed by, y'know, Luigi popping in at any time and revealing their identity. I'm not why you'd think that I'd base a plan on such a flimsy, unreliable route instead of going for the optimal plays that I had laid out right in front of me.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

THC picked up on the CO's identity after N1P2 posted PMs from Waluigi/Luigi, and even DM'd N1P2 saying "I know that the CO is Xiao lol"

Given how last-minute those PMs were posted, and that THC was dead at the time, I don't think that provides any wolf points against him.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

I knew because of the message N1P2 showed in the thread. Xiao's the only one in the game that doesn't capitalize the beginning of their sentences. I figured we wouldn't want the wolves to know that the CO was already dead, though I've had suspicions that they already knew, which is why Xiao was wolfed N2. In fact, the fact you knew it was Xiao makes me wonder if perhaps you took up that opportunity. I feel that BDS would still have wolfed N1P2 N2, since they could have used that opportunity to redirect the CO's seering. Since the Luigi account stays active even after the CO's death, there's no point in wolfing the CO. It feels like a move a newer player would make. I'll be honest, I was planning on voting Toby this phase, but with your post, I feel a lot more comfortable going back with my original gut instinct and voting you, math.

[Toby]

I'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

I was wondering if it was Xiao and especially with BDS revealing N1P2 wanted to lynch the CO, voted Xiao, and then changed their mind after the Luigi post - that adds up. Also given that we've all been active and denied being CO, and Luigi hasn't even given us a seer result yet - I think it probably confirms it as Xiao.

And feeding into the BDS is wolf theory, it does make sense why he would be resistant about revealing the chosen one if he wolfed them once he found out. N1P2 being alive was keeping all suspicion off BDS as he was trusted - but when it comes down to it BDS was only trusted based on an initial hunch on a day 1 post. Keeping N1P2 alive longer also gave BDS more content for 'well if I was a wolf then I could have done xyz...'.

and given THC's recent unwillingness to find the wolves this phase, a partnership there could make sense? And if there are 2 wolves left alive then today really is mislynch or lose.

It would also explain why this conversation between them felt awkwardly pre planned

Who do you think Specs' most likely partner would be? Not sure if you answered that last time I asked.

I previously said math, but:I really don't see anyone doing this intentionally to frame Toby. Like, not only is it not consistent enough to be a thing to copy, but I honestly didn't even notice he does it until it was pointed out. I just have a hard time believing the wolves would have done it on purpose to frame Toby. And since Toby's the only one who does that naturally in this game, that's looking like a very viable option to me. It's a shame because I actually wasn't super suspicious of Toby before that point, which I usually am.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Re: Math, just gonna say these two things right out of the gate:

ok definitely more than two things but you get my point

[Toby]

I'll be around till the end of phase, though I don't have much more to say regarding my vote.

I won't insta Oricorio either, though I'd be ok with it.

I'll throw you a bone though

BDS

Probably a throwaway vote but I want to see what happens toward the end

[Toby]

^ posted the wrong post without my comment

But taking a look back at math's posts and this one sticks out to me as odd. Like what does he mean by throwing a bone? To who? It felt like trying to give Oricorio a chance at survival by voting someone else and seeing if anyone else moved that way. Trying to give Oricorio (who he claimed to be suspicious of) an out?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I literally said in topic we should be reviving THC multiple times. So logically your theory of me hoping THC wouldn't be revived doesn't make sense. If we didn't revive THC then it felt like the next chance we would have got to revive a different night kill, would have been night 4. (because we expected N1P2 to die night2, and would have to wait for a different kill night 3). I don't think there was any feeling that THC wasn't going to be revived?

That's... not what I said.

N1P2 didn't post much this game, and I've never played with them before - and they gave the impression they were rusty and unsure what to do a lot of the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for updates. And it was my plan that I suggested so I wanted to make sure it was following through. I couldn't know there was a counterclaim, and as I had laid out when I initially suggested the plan, that if there was a counterclaim then it would have scored us a 50% chance of catching a wolf. I suggested the plan night 1, I didn't predict that the plan wouldn't move forward until day 1, or that the wolves were able to fake claim as a dead player.

Again, your objections could've been handled via PM.

I'm just not following why you think that I would publicly assume math is the Chosen One just because I possibly seered you and thought you weren't? I assumed your post was a ploy as you posted it with a clear mistake and didn't follow up. Interesting from the PM's between you and N1P2 - I don't understand why you told the alliance leader with the most secret knowledge in the game, to stay quiet and not post anything on their likely last living phase? They could have given us a legacy post or something

Is this human points towards me then since clearly I've not blue seered anyone, and I couldn't have assumed math was the CO based on seer results. I literally just saw your post and had a quick thought. TZP very much likely could be the CO, as could you - but I figured because you were public about PMing N1P2 it's unlikely

ok now you're just intentionally playing dumb

This just seems like a made up comment since you haven't seen me play anything but human in at least 5 years and I've definitely changed lol

That doesn't mean it's made up at all??

Or I just saw your fake slip and made a different assumption based on your fake slip

An assumption which is completely out of left field and doesn't make any sense at all?

Not true:

You openly misrepresented what I was saying there. You did ask N1P2 to confirm which TWG account was the legit seer.

Don't make sense: (because if I'm a wolf I'm going to call out loud and clear who I think is the CO based on using my wolf seering to find out- right?)

Because you had no way of knowing it isn't "obvious" to everyone else.

Exaggerated: I've only been wondering who the CO is this phase, not the entire game - based on the fact we don't know if we will get to another phase - also with 3 wolf seers and 3 redirections, it's likely the wolves found the seer already/used their redirection. If you can't see that it inclines me to believe that you know the wolves haven't use the redirection yet for some reason

Re: underlined; I never said you were wondering who the CO was the entire game. You're the one exaggerating here.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I knew because of the message N1P2 showed in the thread. Xiao's the only one in the game that doesn't capitalize the beginning of their sentences. I figured we wouldn't want the wolves to know that the CO was already dead, though I've had suspicions that they already knew, which is why Xiao was wolfed N2. In fact, the fact you knew it was Xiao makes me wonder if perhaps you took up that opportunity. I feel that BDS would still have wolfed N1P2 N2, since they could have used that opportunity to redirect the CO's seering. Since the Luigi account stays active even after the CO's death, there's no point in wolfing the CO. It feels like a move a newer player would make. I'll be honest, I was planning on voting Toby this phase, but with your post, I feel a lot more comfortable going back with my original gut instinct and voting you, math.

bruh what

UNVOTE ASAP

No reason to just place a vote without stating your intentions ahead of time when a wolf rush is a real possibility.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

bruh what

UNVOTE ASAP

No reason to just place a vote without stating your intentions ahead of time when a wolf rush is a real possibility.

I wouldn't, if it weren't for the fact that Toby seemed to have jumped on the math train right after that. Unvote.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

At this point, I'm fully confident that at least one of Toby and math is a wolf. The problem is, I'm having trouble telling which one.