TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[therealmathguy]

N1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

I get town vibes from the plan, but I want to ask: why did N1P2 trust you so much? Would you be willing to share some of the content of your PMs? I say this because it's reminiscent of the plan a couple games ago when Specs fake claimed seer in a similar way and he was a wolf. The reason for doing it now is different but the way you can gain trust from doing so is the same

[therealmathguy]

Also so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense? And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case? Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Since Waluigi apparently seered me night 1, it's possible I was the actual target and received the infamous blue reading truthfully, which would make me the herring. What that wouldn't explain is why I (or N1P2) didn't die the next night. So it's unlikely, but a possibility nonetheless

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That's not true. I never asked N1P2 to release the identity of the real seer.

I didn't say that in the post you quoted.

I asked him if he was able to tell us yet which TWG account was the human seer so we knew which one to trust

Yes, which is what I said in the post you quoted.

you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

My wording may have been a bit awkward on that. I understand any confusion.

Regardless, how is that me knowing information I'm not supposed to ? - it's literally quite the opposite. I was in the unknown and was looking for an update on if the plan that I proposed was working.

As I said back when it initially happened, it feels like fishing for information over whether N1P2 bought your claim. As a wolf you would've known that Waluigi claimed to be THC, and getting an early answer on whether your claim was trusted would've told you whether or not THC was likely to be revived as a way of disproving your claim, which would likely inform your strategy going forward—if N1P2 had up and said he believed Luigi it wouldn't have been necessary to revive THC in the first place.

I'm not sure why you would've thought N1P2 would've already been able to verify which seer was the real one, and again, why you would have just assumed N1P2 wouldn't have released it without you pressing for it.

Also so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense?

Hypothetically speaking, if you wolf seered me green (or if I were the Miller, which you'd know ahead of time) you'd know I wasn't the CO. If you wolf seered Math blue then your initial instinct upon seeing my post would be to assume Math was the CO and I was trying to cover for him. Doubly so if you seered both of us.

Again, the fact that you need me to spell that out for you explicitly (when I know you're more than capable of reasoning it out for yourself) really feels like you're fishing for information on the CO's real identity.

Hypothetically if you were a wolf and had gotten two blue seerings, you'd definitely already know the CO's identity after this point.

And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case?

As I recall your playstyle tends to be pretty blunt regardless of role.

Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Yes, wolves receive blue seerings for their results. So if you seered Math blue and saw my faked slip it might lead you to think Math was the CO and I was covering for him.

You've just said a few things that either aren't true, don't make sense, or have been exaggerated.

I'd like you to cite some examples since you haven't done so yet.

I don't get what's going on here and this entire game a lot of what you've said feels orchestrated or a performance

Yes, N1P2 and I did a lot of orchestrating behind the scenes, and part of that included putting on a performance to either avoid giving out information, or pretending we're giving out more information than we actually were.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I get town vibes from the plan, but I want to ask: why did N1P2 trust you so much? Would you be willing to share some of the content of your PMs? I say this because it's reminiscent of the plan a couple games ago when Specs fake claimed seer in a similar way and he was a wolf. The reason for doing it now is different but the way you can gain trust from doing so is the same

Game state doesn't make sense with me as a wolf:
1. If I were a wolf Waluigi wouldn't have made the blue slip.
2. If I were a wolf and Waluigi unintentionally made the blue slip, it's unlikely I would have called it out.
3. If I were a wolf and Waluigi intentionally made the blue slip, it's likely I would've done so sooner so as to not give others a chance to do so.
4. I knew the identity of the CO as soon as they claimed to N1P2, as well as helped N1P2 carry out the plan to verify which seer was the legit one. If I had wolfed N1P2 N2, then that would've put me in a unique position of trust and forced the humans to be more reliant on me. There was no reason for me not to wolf N1P2 N2.
5. N1P2 actually suggested lynching the Luigi claimant, which I talked him out of for obvious reasons.
6. I offered suggestions for both the N2 and N3 seerings (I won't reveal who I suggested for N3 yet, but I suggested Toby for N2 since Specs was dead and he was the person I initially wanted to be seered). Since I knew the CO's identity it would been ridiculously easy for me to change the Toby seering to a red one, or, better yet, suggested my wolf partner to be seered.
7. At various points of the game I have either been openly suspicious of, seriously cast doubt upon, or directly tried to lynch every player currently alive aside from myself. The only player likely to be my partner would be Specs—but again, given my close contact with N1P2 it's very likely I could have steered him away from joining the Specs lynch if I were so inclined.

Gimme a moment to sort through my PMs and pick a few out which don't reveal any info that hasn't already been revealed. As I said, I have like 3 pages of them from N1P2

Since Waluigi apparently seered me night 1, it's possible I was the actual target and received the infamous blue reading truthfully, which would make me the herring. What that wouldn't explain is why I (or N1P2) didn't die the next night. So it's unlikely, but a possibility nonetheless

It's possible you were seered N2.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

BDS, as far as your performance goes, I liked your "oops that was meant to be a PM post", and I even tried to casually lend plausibility to it by insinuating that it could have been a result of the forum update. But now we are in a position where you are accusing other players of knowing things they shouldn't,  despite the fact we don't have any concrete reason for why you should have access to that info. Seriously, to Math's point—what is it that N1P2 trusted you for?

As far as general strategy goes, I've thought about it more and I think that the Chosen One should claim this phase. That's info that could easily make the difference between a lynch and a mislynch, and there is no power that the Chosen One can perform alive that he couldn't perform dead. The worst-case scenario is that we have a confirmed human to provide a frame for the lynch this phase, that player gets wolfed tonight, and then that player still has a seering result for us in LyLo D4. What's the downside, given that we could be in LyLo now?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also, can we get a Luigi seering?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

But now we are in a position where you are accusing other players of knowing things they shouldn't,  despite the fact we don't have any concrete reason for why you should have access to that info.

This doesn't make sense. I'm accusing Toby of having information he'd only have access to if he were a wolf. The info I have access to me was directly told to me by N1P2. They're two completely different things.

Seriously, to Math's point—what is it that N1P2 trusted you for?

PMs forthcoming for more information, but initially, me calling out Waluigi's slip (I don't think that alone was worth 100% trusting me for, but N1P2 reached out to me first), and based on what N1P2 himself said it seems like N1P2's trust built up from there based on our exchanges.

As far as general strategy goes, I've thought about it more and I think that the Chosen One should claim this phase. That's info that could easily make the difference between a lynch and a mislynch, and there is no power that the Chosen One can perform alive that he couldn't perform dead. The worst-case scenario is that we have a confirmed human to provide a frame for the lynch this phase, that player gets wolfed tonight, and then that player still has a seering result for us in LyLo D4. What's the downside, given that we could be in LyLo now?

If the redirection hasn't been used yet, then the CO claiming would make their final seering useless if we lynch a wolf today (or have already lynched a wolf). As I said though, it's up to them whether they want to take that risk.

Also, can we get a Luigi seering?

@TWG Luigi

[TheZeldaPianist275]

This doesn't make sense. I'm accusing Toby of having information he'd only have access to if he were a wolf. The info I have access to me was directly told to me by N1P2. They're two completely different things.

Oh I misunderstood--I thought you meant that Toby had somehow found something out that was between you and N1P2. My b

If the redirection hasn't been used yet, then the CO claiming would make their final seering useless if we lynch a wolf today (or have already lynched a wolf). As I said though, it's up to them whether they want to take that risk.

This is reasonable, but the more time goes on, the more likely the wolves are to home in on the identity of the CO via their seerings, which are more accurate than the human seer's. Given that the wolves have had three seerings and six phases' worth of social deductions to try to figure it out, my personal opinion is that a claim is far more likely to be helpful to the humans at this stage in the game.

I suppose I'll wait for these PMs before I say much more

[BlackDragonSlayer]

(REDACTED) is the CO's real identity, redacted for... well, guess. Some PMs are redacted even further to avoid accidentally giving out unrevealed info.

Early PMs

The first PM I got from N1P2, before he even claimed:

I dont PM often, but interesting catch on the blue vs green note.
Do you think getting "assumed town" is going to help you or paint a target on your back?

My response:

Depends. Like I said in the thread, there's a chance I'm either the miller or was the wolves real N1 seering pick. If that's not true, then it'll likely paint a target on my back—even moreso than is inherently so for a veteran player.

N1P2's followup:

Hmm ok, fair. I trust you enough in this situation to help steer us in the right direction.
Because of the potential "slip" then, should i claim the blue town role that i have? I have a tendency to wait too long and didnt think that we cared enough for N1 claims haha

My response:

I'll leave it up to you, but personally I'd at least wait until:
1. We hear davy's response on whether or not the Redirection Wolf can cause the human seer to seer a blue player blue (which is otherwise impossible).
2. TWG Luigi shows up in the thread.

If you're a special and suspicion on you is picking up, then definitely claim.

[close]

A Tale of Two COs

Part of a conversation about Waluigi's THC claim:

Since your revive isn't wasted if used on the Chosen One (who can't be revived), if you use your revive on THC N2 (let me know if you do) and it doesn't work, that confirms Waluigi is THC and is the human seer. If not, then, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It definitively confirms Waluigi is the wolf seer I guess?

N1P2's response:

Yknow, that might be a good point. Perhaps i will use it on him tonight. If by the next day you see THC isnt revived, then he is the CO and you should tell others (assuming im dead). If he is revived, then you need to tell others its a wolf...
That might be a good plan...?

At this point, the real CO hadn't claimed yet.

Later:

Hi, im here super quick so you can formulate thoughts. Ill respond more when i take my lunch break.

(REDACTED) messaged me saying they were CO.

Either way, need to help me dig. I think (REDACTED) should lynched because then i can prove either thc or (REDACTED)'s word. (Again hoping thc isnt miller)

My response:

If (REDACTED) is CO I definitely don't think we should lynch (REDACTED) today.

Also, I'm sort of trying to pretend in public that we're not in contact, at least for the time being. The less the wolves know the better.

N1P2's response:

This is good. Along the lines of what i was thinking. I have one other contingency in place, but who do you think is a good town trust?

My response:

That is... hard to say. Normally I'd say Oricorio, but if (REDACTED) is a wolf that could call that into doubt. Overall though, Oricorio is still probably the most trustworthy of all the other players, from my perspective.

I don't think N1P2 ever mentioned what the other contingency was.

[close]

More Recent PMs

Part of a larger convo:

honestly i have half a mind to publicly fakeclaim co anyway just in case the wolves haven't used their redirection

it's bad bait (especially if I'm the miller) but bait nonetheless and if the wolves genuinely made the waluigi slip they just might fall for that too

N1P2's response:

A fake claim isn't half bad, but perhaps the reveal of something like that can come from me? I'm more believable with the town at the moment, and although you offer creds as of late, we need a way for them to buy it.
I'm down, even as a way to redirect attention, but it should be either carefully slid into a post or "accidentally" slipped...

Later:

If you want (again, with (REDACTED)/Luigi's approval) we can definitely try to double down on "BDS is the CO wink wink." With the new layout as an excuse, maybe I can respond to you in the topic pretending I accidentally posted something instead of PM'ing it to you, maybe something like "I definitely feel better seering Math tonight. I don't think the wolves will redirect me because we've done a lot to throw them off the scent already."

N1P2's response:

Haha i like the attempt, and the switchover to the new layout could be a hilarious excuse... but would it be something BDS does? Would it be something you would let slip?

My response:

All we have to do is muddy the water for the wolves and get them to question

N1P2's response:

okay, then i will let you handle the slip however you seem fit, if you find a time that makes most sense, if you decide to at all.

My response:

The bait has been set. We do a little trolling of our own and see how the wolves like it

I will (actually) be back in the morning. Hopefully me completely dipping out for the night makes it look even more authentic. It would be good if you also refrained from commenting about it unless you have anything important you need to add in the thread before your likely demise o7

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

As a note these are definitely not ALL the PMs exchanged between me and N1P2, only the most important ones (IMO).

[therealmathguy]

The PMs check out, that's good info.

This is reasonable, but the more time goes on, the more likely the wolves are to home in on the identity of the CO via their seerings, which are more accurate than the human seer's. Given that the wolves have had three seerings and six phases' worth of social deductions to try to figure it out, my personal opinion is that a claim is far more likely to be helpful to the humans at this stage in the game.

I agree with TZP. As a human sitting in the dark, I don't know my direction for voting tomorrow, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable by the notion that we should prioritize a phase that may not even happen.

BDS and/or THC, could you expand on the mindset that it isn't important for humans to know the CO?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The PMs check out, that's good info.

I agree with TZP. As a human sitting in the dark, I don't know my direction for voting tomorrow, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable by the notion that we should prioritize a phase that may not even happen.

BDS and/or THC, could you expand on the mindset that it isn't important for humans to know the CO?

As I said, if we lynch a wolf this phase (or have already lynched a wolf) we get one more seering. If the CO reveals their identity and the wolves haven't used their redirection yet (and assuming we lynch the master wolf and not the redirection wolf), then that seering is basically useless to us. However, if the CO stays anonymous there's still a chance the wolves could whiff their redirection if they haven't used it yet.

The CO is never in danger of being lynched anyway because they can just step in as Luigi if it comes down to that. Takes 3 votes to insta, and if both wolves are alive then it only takes 1 wrong human vote for them to wolf rush—nobody should be placing a vote until we've all stated our voting intentions and agreed on someone to vote.

That being said at the end of the day it's the CO's choice.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I hope to see seer results by the morning. If not, well, then... I'll definitely be around well before phase end to give my thoughts.

[Toby]

Just noticed phase ends today but at least it's been extended a few more hours

I was out last night but trying to read through bits despite the hangover

THC has been largely absent this phase which isn't great given the unknown about him still

Reading through BDS' points I do mostly agree that a some of his play would have been different if we was a wolf - notably that given he knew the Chosen One and knew I was being seered, he easily could have redirected that result to red but I showed green. I mean it's possible the redirection was used night 1, or BDS wanted to keep the redirection to protect him/his partner rather than use it offensively.

One point I don't get is how in PMs he was reading Oricorio as human but then in topic they voted Oricorio? I'm not sure how that came about. Especially given the green seeding on him, I expected there to be something more that less N1P2/BDS to lead a lynch against Oricorio - I did also vote Oricorio but I wasn't town reading him in private at the same time

[Toby]

Also where is Luigi with the seer results there's only about 6 hours left in phase