TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[BlackDragonSlayer]

To me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

That's a good point too. It's entirely possible the wolves knew they weren't likely to convince the SL that their seer was the real one (and absolutely didn't want their identity tied to it) so they leaned full well into using Waluigi as a device to frame people by ruining its credibility from the start.

ninja'd

[Oricorio]

So, the current state of play:

1. BlackDragonSlayer: Most widely townread
2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: Killed N1, revived N2
4. Toby: Green checked by human seer
5. Oricorio: Green checked by human seer
6. SpecsFlyer17: Lynched D1
7. XiaoMigros: Killed N2
8. threalmathguy: Allegedly green checked by wolf seer
9. Nana1Popo2: Un-cc'd SL

Looking at this, TZP and math have the least reason to be townread, and thus I feel TZP/math/Toby is a good PoE. Of course, if one of them turns out to be the human seer they can be removed from the PoE.

[Oricorio]

That's a good point too. It's entirely possible the wolves knew they weren't likely to convince the SL that their seer was the real one (and absolutely didn't want their identity tied to it) so they leaned full well into using Waluigi as a device to frame people by ruining its credibility from the start.

ninja'd

Although who exactly would Waluigi be framing, besides Toby I guess? But then the wolf would have presented a red check on Toby when they know it won't be seen as credible?

[Nana1Popo2]

So, the current state of play:

1. BlackDragonSlayer: Most widely townread
2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: Killed N1, revived N2
4. Toby: Green checked by human seer
5. Oricorio: Green checked by human seer
6. SpecsFlyer17: Lynched D1
7. XiaoMigros: Killed N2
8. threalmathguy: Allegedly green checked by wolf seer
9. Nana1Popo2: Un-cc'd SL

Looking at this, TZP and math have the least reason to be townread, and thus I feel TZP/math/Toby is a good PoE. Of course, if one of them turns out to be the human seer they can be removed from the PoE.

You need to clarify that Ori was green checked N1 and Toby green checked N2

[Oricorio]

You need to clarify that Ori was green checked N1 and Toby green checked N2

Does the exact time matter? Or do you have a lead on the Redirection Wolf we don't know about?

[Oricorio]

With 7 alive, 5-2 worst case scenario, a PoE of three wins the game. Just hope we're not misclearing BDS. Also the reason why I don't want to be lynched, unless you have really good reason to believe one of Toby/math/TZP is town it will lead to there being too big of a PoE

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Although who exactly would Waluigi be framing, besides Toby I guess? But then the wolf would have presented a red check on Toby when they know it won't be seen as credible?

Toby, THC, possibly Specs. The idea would be to sow doubt to make us uncertain.

Does the exact time matter? Or do you have a lead on the Redirection Wolf we don't know about?

That's the thing too is we don't know. If they were taking a random shot in the dark it wouldn't matter whether it was redirected N1 or N2, but if they got a blue seering from their N1 result and then redirected that person N2 there's a good chance they could've successfully redirected the seer N2.

[Oricorio]

To those who believe in Specs/me as a pairing, keep in mind that lynching me would disprove that pairing immediately. Got any backup options?

[therealmathguy]

Since the last day cycle, my top two sus suspects have gone down. I believe Xiao is the more likely human of Xiao and Specs given the nature of their deaths (wolf vs lynch). I think Specs is a likely Waluigi, as well as Oricorio due to reaction of the first seering and the reasons TZP mentioned, and I still think it is possible they are wolves together. It's also probably easier to bash Waluigi for messing up if it's yourself.

I still want to believe in Toby and THC, but their reactions to my human reads were strange, THC more so than Toby. I read it more as a "think this through more" than anything too wolfy, but THC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

I'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout. I think BDS and Toby/TZP probably go opposite ways and right now I'm leaning town on Toby/TZP. This isn't as strong of a theory in my mind though.

So for votes I'm between Oricorio, BDS and THC

[BlackDragonSlayer]

THC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

To be fair, this is the same THC who (as a human) stated that he was fully willing to help a wolf (me) win in the assassin game

I'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout.

I don't think I would've done either of those things as a wolf. Too risky with not enough of a guarantee of benefit for my tastes.

To those who believe in Specs/me as a pairing, keep in mind that lynching me would disprove that pairing immediately. Got any backup options?

Yes! Oricorio.

(seriously though I do have a few backup options in mind, some of which should hopefully be cleared up by the next seering)

I will try to be awake before the end of the phase in case I need to change my vote, but again, I cannot 100% guarantee it. Gonna still be around for a few more hours too.

[Oricorio]

Voting someone who is seered green is... a choice. Still think threalmathguy is a good option, and if not him then TZP. Lynching me would ruin my perfectly good PoE

[Oricorio]

I guess I'm stuck in this "damned if I do, damned if I don't" position in this community. Nowhere else am I an easy mislynch

[Oricorio]

If math is a wolf, leaving a slanking wolf alive late in the game is disastrous if the last couple of games are an indication

Wish this place had ISOs, it'd make it easier to look at math and TZP

[Oricorio]

Phase ends are right in the middle of my work day this game lol. I don't have time to weigh in on much but I'll weigh in briefly on Toby's plan. The one hang up I see is that, while the plan loses value after N1, if the Sacrificial Lamb claims in the next sixty mins, won't the wolves just switch their target to the Lamb? There might not be enough time left for the actual Chosen One to see and claim, in which case we lose the lamb without the lamb being any wiser about who to revive down the road.

To Ice Climbers' point, the lamb dying in this way would confirm their role, but it's unlikely that the lamb would have been counterclaimed anyway, so that's a limited upside.

This is like TZP's only post for a significant portion if the game? It's meh

[Oricorio]

All right, I should be able to discuss things more substantively going forward.

I disagree with Oricorio that Waluigi is unlikely to post again. I think the wolves will probably try to keep every tool in their disposal alive for as long as possible even if most people aren't believing them. I'd expect there to be a pitch of that false seering as a reaction test, or even as an honest error.

Want to hear more from Math, Xiao, and N1P2 (I don't think calling you "Ice Climbers" will stick haha) on the events of the day so far. As the players who have been the quietest, they are the ones who are most likely to be indicted by a "wolf reading sloppily" explanation* of an impossible seering—and I do not want to get shivved by not paying attention to quiet players for two games in a row.

(*if that is indeed the explanation we're opting for. Oricorio seems to think it's plausible that it's a wolf being conservative and a wolf being impulsive, which is definitely reasonable, but I think it's less likely than the whole team just not carefully reading)

Also, not Sacrificial Lamb.

"Want to hear more from x" is not a read. Otherwise, lukewarm comments on some of my stances.