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TZP probably "greenchecked" me to keep me around as my vote was worth .5. Missed opportunity that people didn't look at that harder, as it made TZP obvious in hindsight (being the only one who wasn't trying to wagon me until his hand was forced). Oh well, hindsight bias and all that.

This is actually not quite true. Going into D2, when I realized Specs had checked you, I thought there was a good chance you were my partner. So I faked a green check on you to alert you to the fact that I wasn't on the level—if you were a human, you wouldn't disbelieve it, but if you were the fire wolf, you'd immediately know I was your partner, since you'd show up as red to the fire seer. And when you didn't take the bait I was almost positive it was Xiao. I was going to PM Xiao during N3 to team up...but the very strange vote results on D2 gave me pause about doing that.

STOP ROLLING ME AS A WOLF FOR THESE AAAA

I agree these are the logical lynch candidates based on how the events have unfolded

Also, why frame it this way Xiao? I've read BDS as human all game, but he hasn't done anything to truly clear himself. Why is he on par with Specs as someone above reproach for this phase?

[Xiao]

I'm heading out into the sticks for a hike right now and won't be back for several hours, but I should be able to clock in one more time after that. I'm gonna vote Xiao for now. Subject to change. Specs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?

I read more as a genuine human gambit more than a wolf faking a human gambit, since BDS hasn't really been under scrutiny yet this phase

A'ight, I'm going for broke here, but after mulling all the scenarios over I'm fairly certain you're not just pretending to lie about your seer results. I'm the fire wolf and I painted Xiao red last night so I know you're lying about your seer results. I didn't reduce anyone's vote last night because I figured that if Oricorio wasn't the ice wolf (which I'm pretty sure at this point he wasn't) it was too much of a risk to accidentally hit the other wolf.

If you're indeed the ice wolf and vote reduced anyone other than me, I'm pretty sure we've just won. If you had the same logic as me and didn't reduce anyone, then, well, we can work with that. I feel like Specs could be convinced to vote for Xiao without too much effort, especially if I'm the first one to lead the charge.

got this from BDS lol

You're mixing up conditional and absolute probability. If it was down to three players (you, the person you seer'd and the person who you didn't seer), then it would be a true 50/50 from your perspective, and the blue seering tells you literally nothing since you can be confident both other players would flip blue. But there are more players than that, so it's the probability my blue flip is a wolf GIVEN that you can assume 2 out of 3 players were blue last night. Which is different still from the probability Oricorio's blue flip was a wolf given that you can assume 2 out of 5 players were blue N2.

Aw man that really sucks. Specs you're gonna vote who you have to vote, but I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier. It's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night. Please don't just execute me based on that flip!

My vote's going to BDS or Xiao, I don't think I'm capable of the tinfoil required to mistrust Specs at this point. Leaning toward Xiao because I think he would be more likely to paint me than BDS would.

Also a phase extension is probably worse for me, wedding is on the 5th

Unsurprising green flip on Xiao for me

Also, thinking ahead for seer results tomorrow. Seer results will help us to lynch accurately...but on the other hand, if we are in the world where both wolves are still alive, each wolf only needs confirmation that his teammate is alive to publicly claim, and then team up and win. If the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?

Yes, the only scenario missing from your list is Oricorio being the red wolf.

For that to happen, that means the blue wolf both chilled and painted Oricorio, and TZP is lying about the green check. I don't think that's likely at all.

Yeah, I was solving based on the assumption that the seers have been truthful with their claims, but I suppose that's possible from your perspective if you are human. It still has the weakness, though, that Oricorio would have completely neglected to send an action N2, and I think that's even less likely for Oricorio than it is for other players.

Also for everyone's awareness, I'm catching a flight right around phase end for the second bachelor party/wedding this week, so my communication will be highly limited for the day phase. Can't be helped.

As far as I can see it here are the options.

1. The Fire Wolf is still alive. From any perspective, it could be any living player except me. Either through sheer forgetfulness or a desire to play headgames with no guarantee of favorable results, this player did not use at least one of his powers N2.
2. THC was the Fire Wolf. He pulled one of his fabled THC fast moves and burned himself, perhaps with the intention of voting someone at the end of D1 that no one else voted so that everyone could see that he was targeted N1, and maybe trust him more. This has the obvious downside of making himself an easy target for the Ice Wolf, who would see THC with half health and think "prey".
3. N1P2 was the Fire Wolf. Even though the strictly dominant strategy when facing a lynch like he did is to claim seer, he didn't. When he said "it would be worse for me in the long run to claim", maybe it genuinely is the case that he didn't want to deal with being counterclaimed—some people don't like the direct confrontation of situations like that.

All three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).

Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?

He means "not knowing the other wolf was dead"

If there really are two wolves remaining, the game is practically over. They can publicly claim, agree to kill someone tonight, and have a a lock on a 2v1 D3.

This only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around

Specs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio

I think everything you said is right except this. In bsrw!Specs world (lol), with the ice wolf alive and painting Oricorio, Specs would be telling the truth about his blue seering. I agree with everything else though, it requires quite a bit of tinfoil for Specs to make sense as a wolf now.

Gotta say, whichever one of you is the wolf (or two of you I suppose), kudos on playing a very clean game so far. This has turned into a real cipher.