Messages

Right now, the only two players I feel comfortable voting for are Specs and Oricorio. I'm hoping to hear more from both Oricorio and N1P2 as well before I place my vote.

Xiao's behavior feels pretty standard so far, and I think TZP's posts give enough of a human lean (actually feel solve-y but not domineering of the conversation) to where I don't want to lynch him today.

In that case, I can also support an extension.

[TZP]

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP

THC typically starts out inactive (often because he's busy or hasn't realized the game has started yet) then gets more active as the game goes on. It's possible the wolves picked him because they were expecting him to be alive later in the game.

Also its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them

I'm just judging by looking at who might be more likely to pick THC as a wolfing based on wolfings in prior games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And it's a very loose read regardless.

I disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.

That's an interesting point. Do you think they would've picked THC assuming he'd be less likely to be lynched?

So,
- THC was killed N1 in TWG CXV, but that doesn't really count because of the number picking gimmick.
- THC was wolfed in TWG CXVI by Specs, but there's also extenuating circumstances there because of the nature of the assassin game.
- THC was confirmed human in TWG CXVIII and wolfed as a result. Also doesn't tell us anything.
- THC was wolfed N1 in TWG CXIX by TZP and Toby.

End results, not especially conclusive, but based on basic PoE and how few players are in the game (1/3 of the remaining players are wolves), I think it's reasonably likely to guess that there's probably at least one wolf between Specs and TZP. Of course, we're assuming that one or both wolves didn't just pick their targets randomly, which (correct me if I'm wrong), TZP has done for wolfing picks in the past??

I'm guessing neither wolf expected the other to go for THC. This wolfing could've accidentally been an information jackpot for us.

The question is, who might independently arrive at the idea of reducing THC's vote? I'm going to be busy with something else in a little bit, but later I'm gonna go back through some of the revival games where THC was wolfed to try and deduce who might already be inclined toward wolfing him.

well that's not good...

Okay... so THC got chilled and burned last night. And everyone's at full strength voting.

Surprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction. Unless THC was a seer, we still have all our resources available to us.

I also think that this was just an interesting coincidence, and not the wolves intentionally teaming up—something like that would be very difficult to accomplish randomly, unless one of the wolves made an "obvious" intentional slip publicly to signal to the other wolf that we're all somehow missing.

By "double seered," I mean both seers would have to seer you at the same time. I think it's a viable strategy, albeit risky, to try and get the seers to coordinate seerings—it just depends on whether or not the wolves themselves are able to coordinate rather than fully playing against each other, or whether we even wanna take that risk in the first place or just leave the seers to their own devices.

Admittedly, I was neglecting the fact that anyone seer'd green is a confirmed human. With that in mind, the seers are indeed very useful. I was only thinking of it from the angle of a Blue or Red seering as being just as likely to be a wolf or human without other context.

If I'm understanding things correctly, you'd have to be double seered green to be confirmed human. Considering that, I think there's still a potential reason to reveal colors.

So we're back at square one

I imagine that if one of the wolves got a seer power and seers someone the opposite color, they might be more inclined to try to leak the knowledge publicly, but otherwise I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for a human seer to reveal their seering, especially if the person they seered is already suspected. It could very well be the deciding factor toward lynching someone versus not.

This goes without saying, but we definitely have to be more careful and be sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to the lynch. With vote manipulation shenanigans going on we could very well end up in a situation where the person the majority of people are voting for isn't the person who ends up getting lynched.

After the assassin game, it'll definitely be interesting to see another game where the wolves are (kinda) pitted against each other.

One thing I want to poll everyone for: What phase change time works best for people? I was thinking along the lines of 8 PM EDT, but if this is inconvenient for too many people (i.e. too late for Europeans or too early for west coasters), I'm happy to move it up or down accordingly.

I'd say that time works well enough for me. It's 5pm on the west coast, so not too bad.

Came up with my third jazz miniature - here it is, Jazz Miniature in D Flat Major!

Just listened to this one. Very nice!!