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Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?

What TZP said. Not knowing N1P2 was the other wolf.

Is it possible that Oricorio was the blue wolf?

redwolf!Somebody burned bluewolf!Oricorio and red-paint someone random. Oricorio opted to not chill anyone while blue-painteding someone random. That seems plausible right?

I think it's possible as long as Oricorio would have believed he needed the extra votes to survive the day.

This to me could quite well be wolf!Oricorio setting up a red herring after seeing he was gonna be lynched

Maybe he didn't want to hit the other wolf and risk screwing them both over? I don't think he would've known for sure he would've been the principal lynch target.

All three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).

I'm also inclined to believe that N1P2 was the red wolf as the most likely scenario. Occam's Razor or somethin'

The problem I have with wolf!N1P2 is just how easy he went down. It's not like he still wins if the other wolf wins. wolf!N1P2's game was 100% on the line, and he took the defeat without even putting up a fight.

That just doesn't make sense.

It's possible he started his defense too late and just knew there was like 0% chance of turning the lynch around once the momentum got started.

Would definitely appreciate some sort of confirmation/double checking on this front

Blue seer red wolf Specs world:
- Specs deliberately didn't use his vote power, meaning blue wolf would've had to have targeted Oricorio. In this case Oricorio couldn't have been the blue wolf since he more than likely wouldn't want to target himself (I feel fairly confident saying this).
- Specs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio.
- TZP didn't seer whoever Specs did paint (if he even painted anyone at all).
- Two wolves would be alive which means they could just publicly claim to each other to win together and humans couldn't do much to stop that.

Am I missing anything?

...of course, N1P2 could've been the blue wolf and maybe Specs did use his power, not knowing N1P2 was dead. But then why would he release a blue seering on Oricorio if he used his power on him? Wouldn't really make sense.

Unless I'm missing something, I think Specs is probably the most human player alive by game mechanics.

I'm trying to figure out if blue seer red wolf Specs is still a possibility. In that case Specs would have incentive to make people think the red wolf was dead... I just don't know if the way the actions have played out would even make sense in such a world.

Also, if we were at one wolf going into D2, doesn't that mean Specs is the only seer left whose results have any pull? Oricorio would have to have been painted by the Ice Wolf, since the Fire Wolf is dead.

Oricorio could still be the Ice Wolf and one of the wolves just decided not to use their vote power for whatever reason. But I do suspect that N1P2 was the Fire Wolf.

Watch it be wolf!THC who tried to play some insane mind game by shooting himself and then looking innocent when he only has .5 votes.

lololololololol

I can do you one better: the best reason I can see for a purposeful blank is mentally flashbanging the remainder of the lobby, as we have been

also very true

In all seriousness though, it's possible (no matter how ridiculously unlikely) they fully expected to live the day and did absolutely wanna try some tricky mindgames.

Unless a wolf purposely didn't chill/burn someone D2 to create the illusion that N1P2 was a wolf?

The only reason I can see for a purposeful blank is that they thought they might need the extra 0.5 vote to help ensure they survived the lynch.

Assuming one wolf is dead (either N1P2 was a wolf or one of the wolves just forgor or chose not to use their power for some reason), that bodes well for us. Neither seer can die so we get... some possibly useful info I guess??? The wolf only has one vote versus a max of 2.5 human votes, assuming they use their power.

Well that sure is... interesting.

Are you confident in THC not being the seer?

As confidence as I can reasonably be under the circumstances. If he was the seer, I don't think the wolves would've known that though, and would've been a lot more likely to not fakeclaim or even make the wrong seer claim.

TZP and Specs aren't wolves together, plus the seering, so I feel confident enough keeping my vote where it is.

I guess this might just come down to behind the scenes vote shenanigans. If Xiao and Oricorio are wolves the vote could very well be tied 2-2.

Because BDS already spilled it back in his thought-post.

Re: that post, I figured it was info one or both of the wolves already knew whether Oricorio was a wolf or was a painted human so no use tripping myself and others up by using unclear terms.

A less charitable interpretation, of course, is that both wolves are or will be on the Oricorio vote.

A "consensus" between wolves and town is not an ideal outcome. Granted, if there was no crossfire we're kind of screwed either way. A bit alarming that we're missing three people this close to EoD, but eh.

A charitable interpretation means that the wolf thinks they still have a chance solo but no chance if they obviously out themselves by going against the grain to try and split the votes.

It may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.

That's definitely true; as I said, a TZP/Xiao pairing would be worst case scenario for us. Best we could hope for is that one or both of the wolves have already had their vote reduced. At this point though, regardless of what option we go for, it's in our best interest to maintain a consensus vote. And with a half hour left in the phase, if we change the vote we have to start doing it, like, now.