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[Unvote]

I wouldn't, if it weren't for the fact that Toby seemed to have jumped on the math train right after that. Unvote.

I mean you placed a vote and this could be the last phase. I'm going to look into the person you vote for to see if I agree.

[TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.]

Suspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Math's early suspicion list was good
I like the amount of human leans which shows he's not just trying to throw people under the bus but also trying to find the humans

You're right, I'm going off the assumption that wolves didn't wolf themselves night 1. Maybe I shouldn't use the word "confirmed" but I think it's one of the strongest indications of being human we have in the game so far

This post was when he called out THC as confirmed human. Given now he seems to be pointing shade at a THC/BDS pairing - I'm thinking his reaction was genuine to calling THC confirmed human - and not him trying to false confirm his wolf buddy so they could get revived.

I'm not sure I follow the logic in determining which Luigi is the wolf but I guess we'll hear more that'll clear it up.

What I do know though is if N1P2 is confident in which seer is real, then Toby is likely human because the wolves wouldn't want to frame their master wolf

Another example of clearing a human. But this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

I'm inclined to believe this is a genuine accident and not a roundabout way of fake claiming. That being said, we have to be aware that any seering will be unreliable now

His response to BDS's 'slip' I'm not sure if it was genuine or if he was trying to play along with the slip to try give it more credit. I think the fact he called attention to it is worth noting though, and recognising it was a slip he wasn't afraid to interact with it

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

^ posted the wrong post without my comment

But taking a look back at math's posts and this one sticks out to me as odd. Like what does he mean by throwing a bone? To who? It felt like trying to give Oricorio a chance at survival by voting someone else and seeing if anyone else moved that way. Trying to give Oricorio (who he claimed to be suspicious of) an out?

[BDS]

I'll be around till the end of phase, though I don't have much more to say regarding my vote.

I won't insta Oricorio either, though I'd be ok with it.

I'll throw you a bone though

BDS

Probably a throwaway vote but I want to see what happens toward the end

[Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.]

I'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

I was wondering if it was Xiao and especially with BDS revealing N1P2 wanted to lynch the CO, voted Xiao, and then changed their mind after the Luigi post - that adds up. Also given that we've all been active and denied being CO, and Luigi hasn't even given us a seer result yet - I think it probably confirms it as Xiao.

And feeding into the BDS is wolf theory, it does make sense why he would be resistant about revealing the chosen one if he wolfed them once he found out. N1P2 being alive was keeping all suspicion off BDS as he was trusted - but when it comes down to it BDS was only trusted based on an initial hunch on a day 1 post. Keeping N1P2 alive longer also gave BDS more content for 'well if I was a wolf then I could have done xyz...'.

and given THC's recent unwillingness to find the wolves this phase, a partnership there could make sense? And if there are 2 wolves left alive then today really is mislynch or lose.

It would also explain why this conversation between them felt awkwardly pre planned

Who do you think Specs' most likely partner would be? Not sure if you answered that last time I asked.

I previously said math, but:I really don't see anyone doing this intentionally to frame Toby. Like, not only is it not consistent enough to be a thing to copy, but I honestly didn't even notice he does it until it was pointed out. I just have a hard time believing the wolves would have done it on purpose to frame Toby. And since Toby's the only one who does that naturally in this game, that's looking like a very viable option to me. It's a shame because I actually wasn't super suspicious of Toby before that point, which I usually am.

[Not true:]

As I said back when it initially happened, it feels like fishing for information over whether N1P2 bought your claim. As a wolf you would've known that Waluigi claimed to be THC, and getting an early answer on whether your claim was trusted would've told you whether or not THC was likely to be revived as a way of disproving your claim, which would likely inform your strategy going forward—if N1P2 had up and said he believed Luigi it wouldn't have been necessary to revive THC in the first place.

I literally said in topic we should be reviving THC multiple times. So logically your theory of me hoping THC wouldn't be revived doesn't make sense. If we didn't revive THC then it felt like the next chance we would have got to revive a different night kill, would have been night 4. (because we expected N1P2 to die night2, and would have to wait for a different kill night 3). I don't think there was any feeling that THC wasn't going to be revived?

I'm not sure why you would've thought N1P2 would've already been able to verify which seer was the real one, and again, why you would have just assumed N1P2 wouldn't have released it without you pressing for it.
Hypothetically speaking, if you wolf seered me green (or if I were the Miller, which you'd know ahead of time) you'd know I wasn't the CO. If you wolf seered Math blue then your initial instinct upon seeing my post would be to assume Math was the CO and I was trying to cover for him. Doubly so if you seered both of us.

N1P2 didn't post much this game, and I've never played with them before - and they gave the impression they were rusty and unsure what to do a lot of the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for updates. And it was my plan that I suggested so I wanted to make sure it was following through. I couldn't know there was a counterclaim, and as I had laid out when I initially suggested the plan, that if there was a counterclaim then it would have scored us a 50% chance of catching a wolf. I suggested the plan night 1, I didn't predict that the plan wouldn't move forward until day 1, or that the wolves were able to fake claim as a dead player.

Again, the fact that you need me to spell that out for you explicitly (when I know you're more than capable of reasoning it out for yourself) really feels like you're fishing for information on the CO's real identity.

I'm just not following why you think that I would publicly assume math is the Chosen One just because I possibly seered you and thought you weren't? I assumed your post was a ploy as you posted it with a clear mistake and didn't follow up. Interesting from the PM's between you and N1P2 - I don't understand why you told the alliance leader with the most secret knowledge in the game, to stay quiet and not post anything on their likely last living phase? They could have given us a legacy post or something

Hypothetically if you were a wolf and had gotten two blue seerings, you'd definitely already know the CO's identity after this point.

Is this human points towards me then since clearly I've not blue seered anyone, and I couldn't have assumed math was the CO based on seer results. I literally just saw your post and had a quick thought. TZP very much likely could be the CO, as could you - but I figured because you were public about PMing N1P2 it's unlikely

As I recall your playstyle tends to be pretty blunt regardless of role.

This just seems like a made up comment since you haven't seen me play anything but human in at least 5 years and I've definitely changed lol

Yes, wolves receive blue seerings for their results. So if you seered Math blue and saw my faked slip it might lead you to think Math was the CO and I was covering for him.

Or I just saw your fake slip and made a different assumption based on your fake slip

I'd like you to cite some examples since you haven't done so yet.

Not true:

you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

Don't make sense:

you seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point

(because if I'm a wolf I'm going to call out loud and clear who I think is the CO based on using my wolf seering to find out- right?)

Exaggerated:

The whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

I've only been wondering who the CO is this phase, not the entire game - based on the fact we don't know if we will get to another phase - also with 3 wolf seers and 3 redirections, it's likely the wolves found the seer already/used their redirection. If you can't see that it inclines me to believe that you know the wolves haven't use the redirection yet for some reason

I'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this.

To be honest, I've not really been conscious about if my honest opinion is going to come across as suspicious

You don't have anything to say in what could be mislynch or lose?

Also where is Luigi with the seer results there's only about 6 hours left in phase

Just noticed phase ends today but at least it's been extended a few more hours

I was out last night but trying to read through bits despite the hangover

THC has been largely absent this phase which isn't great given the unknown about him still

Reading through BDS' points I do mostly agree that a some of his play would have been different if we was a wolf - notably that given he knew the Chosen One and knew I was being seered, he easily could have redirected that result to red but I showed green. I mean it's possible the redirection was used night 1, or BDS wanted to keep the redirection to protect him/his partner rather than use it offensively.

One point I don't get is how in PMs he was reading Oricorio as human but then in topic they voted Oricorio? I'm not sure how that came about. Especially given the green seeding on him, I expected there to be something more that less N1P2/BDS to lead a lynch against Oricorio - I did also vote Oricorio but I wasn't town reading him in private at the same time

When I said that, I meant "the common thread I've felt with your posts is." And another example I can think of off the top of my head is one I brought up earlier in the game with you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

In this case, you seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point (possibly both).

That's not true. I never asked N1P2 to release the identity of the real seer.

I asked him if he was able to tell us yet which TWG account was the human seer so we knew which one to trust

Which was part of the plan I suggested night 1 which people agreed with

Regardless, how is that me knowing information I'm not supposed to ? - it's literally quite the opposite. I was in the unknown and was looking for an update on if the plan that I proposed was working.

Also so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense? And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case? Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Are you just throwing shit at me so see what sticks? You've just said a few things that either aren't true, don't make sense, or have been exaggerated. I don't get what's going on here and this entire game a lot of what you've said feels orchestrated or a performance

N1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

Do you know who Luigi is ?

Anyway, back to the game
I'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this. The whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

Can you give further examples of me seeming like I know things I shouldn't since it's apparently been the whole thread? No idea what you mean prior to today so wonder if that's just an exaggerated accusation

I haven't been speculating the entire game to try find the CO. And I've not been digging for information to find the CO.

I merely figured the CO was more likely to be you over Oricorio since the alliance was voting Oricorio

N1P2 placed the first vote but I had been calling out Oricorio for the majority of day 2. Oricorio was also my number 1 only solidified by the fact that the alliance also went after him.

I didn't just vote because the alliance went there I think you're forgetting I was looking at him before anyone else was

I mean thats my opinion on it you don't have to respond to that