Messages

Match as in they're the same or opposite?

They don't contradict each other; they're the opposite from each other.

[Oricorio]

Also, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that.

If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say:
Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP

PMs received and read. If we wanna wait for Xiao to reveal specifics I'll wait, but I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.

My issue with this: the private message recipient will have the opportunity to mess with things. My suggestion is both TZP and I message 2 people their colors. That way we have two people verifying the results.

What do you all think?

If the PM recipient messes with things then that will basically guarantee out them as a wolf. Messaging 2 people instead of 1 would be fine, but to propose an alternative:
1. You and TZP claim to someone.
2. That person confirms receiving both PMs.
3. You and TZP claim your color publicly.
4. Person confirms that it matches what you sent them.

These steps could also work with 2 people instead of 1.

Here is what I suggest. Both TZP and I PM two players (BDS and Xiao?) and reveal our colors. They can independently report back. If the TZP and my colors mismatch, we know we have shenanigans. I left Oricorio out of this just because he has the positive hit on him, but if anyone objects to the choice of BDS and Xiao, let us know.

I don't necessarily think knowing the colors helps the humans or wolves a whole lot at this point, but I think this is a good plan to mostly confirm that TZP and I are legit seers.

I'll wait to hear back from TZP before I send anything.

That's a fine enough plan as long as you and TZP both agree on what you're doing.

In my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.

Fair enough. Not really something I can prove or disprove either way, more of an interesting discrepancy I noticed after you first claimed to me.

As far as Xiao being a lynch candidate:

It wouldn't surprise me if town!Xiao was burned or chilled N2, for similar reasons to why I think THC was killed N1; the strong consensus seemed to be that Xiao was town aligned, probably the most so of anyone. This would make him less likely to be lynched D2, and thus I could see him being targeted on N1 by wolves to build their vote manipulation power. It would not have shocked me if Xiao was killed N2 for that reason.

I didn't quite think of that before but I like the observation (especially considering Xiao was one of my fake suggestions for targets to TZP).

Although the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".

Assuming the wolves found each other by the start of Day 2 and not the night prior, they know who each other targeted and they probably know who they need to lynch today to win. If they found each other Night 2 then they probably coordinated their targets to people who were least likely to be lynched anyway.

I personally don't think the wolves have found each other yet, but it's something to keep in mind in case they have.

Can town still win after two mislynches in a row? The answer is yes, but only if wolves cross marked each other N2 or if we mislynch a marked townie, the other person marked is a wolf, and the remaining wolf gets marked N3. Otherwise, if we mislynch today you better pray N1P2 is a wolf.

In a game like this I think it's best to assume we need to lynch a wolf today.

sometimes I get the impression that portraying me as stupid is a legit strategy to detract from what I do say

Huh? I was referring to TZP doing stuff like the wolf gambit he did last phase.

I don't think you quite understand the situation we are in. If both of the seers survive D2, it can give us a lot of information going into F3, which is why Xiao is optimal (and not because it "looks bad"). I don't really care that Xiao is townread, what have they really done to advance town's wincon? The D1 vote was probably a mislynch and given that the two most viable CWs were our seer claims, maybe that's a sign town wasn't doing well at all D1. Still, we're in a situation where it's close to a lock but one mistake means it's all over. For now, we need to establish the trustworthiness of the seer claims (but we know at least one has to be legit).

And if we don't lynch a wolf today we probably lose period. There are 5 players, 2 of whom are wolves and up to 2 of whom (safe to assume it's 2) who have halved votes. Best case scenario for humans is that the wolves reduced each other's votes, but that's not something we should count on. Needless to say, if we lynch a human today, especially one who has a full vote it ain't looking too good.

If both seers are legit, then you (or N1P2 I guess) are not a mislynch. Unless you want to convince me it's BDS?

I'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf.

From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.

On the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.

Your only other option to push would be Specs which looks bad because he claimed seer.


Gonna be heading out shortly. Will likely be back within the next 4-6 hours.

I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs

That could definitely be the case.

So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.

From your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there is a color seering on you.

In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.

Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio

Since neither Specs nor TZP have revealed which seer they are yet, I kinda wanna try the private claiming plan in case it managed to get a hit.

Yes.

I will also say that I fakeclaimed seer to TZP in an attempt to get them to claim to me. The idea was if we could get TZP and Specs to both individually claim Seer colors in private, we could see if their claims are contradictory. (TZP was figured out to likely be a Seer based on PoE). BDS can confirm this plan.

I can confirm.

BDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?

I can indeed confirm.

Right now I feel like we should get the other seer to claim, then maybe have them claim their color to someone privately. If they contradict, then, well, that brings their claims into question.

I'm definitely interested in hearing from Specs about all this.

I'm in favor of seers claiming as well as sharing results. Even if THC was a seer, simply having a wolf bluffing can give us info, especially considering one of the seers has a chance to be a wolf anyway.

Why did you send the message to Xiao over the others?

Out of everyone other than TZP, I figured Xiao was most likely to be a human.

I imagine that Xiao was offline, or otherwise preoccupied, by the time I sent my message. I never heard back from Xiao so that's what I assumed.