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A less charitable interpretation, of course, is that both wolves are or will be on the Oricorio vote.

A "consensus" between wolves and town is not an ideal outcome. Granted, if there was no crossfire we're kind of screwed either way. A bit alarming that we're missing three people this close to EoD, but eh.

A charitable interpretation means that the wolf thinks they still have a chance solo but no chance if they obviously out themselves by going against the grain to try and split the votes.

It may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.

That's definitely true; as I said, a TZP/Xiao pairing would be worst case scenario for us. Best we could hope for is that one or both of the wolves have already had their vote reduced. At this point though, regardless of what option we go for, it's in our best interest to maintain a consensus vote. And with a half hour left in the phase, if we change the vote we have to start doing it, like, now.

Speaking of TZP, I'm with Oricorio on the idea it would be nice to hear more from him

Agree. He also does need to vote, and as Specs touched on, we definitely wanna make sure there's a consensus in case of vote manipulation shenanigans.

That's what I'm wondering as well. I wanted to see if Oricorio had a point and I was missing something obvious because I was tripping myself up, but Oricorio's response to the whole situation definitely rubs me the wrong way regardless.

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected?

In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.

Let me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.

Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.

For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.

Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.

The way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.

I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy.

@SpecsFlyer17 @XiaoMigros @TheZeldaPianist275

Thoughts/responses to these posts?

The way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.

I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy.

BDS, if you're town and think Specs is a wolf, then unless you think THC is seer then Xiao has to be his partner

Elaborate?

Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves?

Let me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.

Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.

For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.

Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.

This is stupid. If we're w/w and Specs knows it he gets no advantage from bussing when any mislynch would be a guaranteed win (so long as we didn't crossfire). Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves? This is just illogical and is really making me question my townread on you

i tried to throw you a bone and your response is to turn it back as a suspicion on me

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).

In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.

Last wolf is between Specs/TZP, but number one TZP has done so little this phase it's hard to solve between them and number two this has (or had) a chance of self-resolving if one of them died. However, you're blind if you think I haven't been trying to solve Specs, what do you think I was trying to accomplish with the PMs I sent you?

Additionally, if you think my solve is too narrow, isn't the same true of Xiao? But I've at least been trying to solve in worlds while Xiao takes the laziest answer

Looking over your posts this phase, it doesn't really feel like you've been putting much emphasis on Specs. Re: PMs, that's kinda true, but at the same time handling it in PMs like that feels like it could just be a way for you to try and covertly connect with wolf!Specs.

Like I've been at least trying to get to the bottom of everything here while all Xiao's done is just parrot things others have said with no digging of their own. The redcheck is unfortunate, and I understand if it costs the game as people aren't likely to trust me after I got away with a redcheck as wolf in the Grinch game. However, you have to understand that seerings are somewhat rigged towards the wolves as they can frame whoever they think is likeliest to be seered (and I, due to my low activity before this phase, wasn't a difficult guess) plus it's always possible Specs is a wolf who made up that result for his own purposes (regardless of whether or not he's actually seer).

Has Xiao really been parroting? As I mentioned in my overview of each player D1, Xiao usually has a tendency to go against the grain to varying degrees and I feel like that behavior has been fairly consistent. At this point in the game there aren't really many options, and Xiao being the first one to strongly push against you doesn't feel contradictory or like parroting.

Also, TZP seered you green, so that means you weren't painted by at least one wolf.

This is another wolfy post, saying you want to hear from someone is not a read and just a way of filling spaceightly pushing someone

"I want to hear more from X" is something I've done repeatedly, not just this game, but prior games.

and the unnecessary ellipses is also something wolves do a lot.

...

idk about Xiao, but me, that's just how I speak normally

I brought it up in PMs

This is the PM you're referring to, I'm guessing?

Since we both know who it is, I suppose there's no harm in revealing it's Specs. I am vanilla and Xiao is apparently vanilla so if you're not seer the only two other people it can be are TZP and THC. Specs claimed they had a wolf check on me (but didn't reveal the color) but given the lack of enthusiasm in the claim it might be a reaction test, so I want you to push them to claim their result privately to you (but don't reveal we're in contact). We also should push TZP to claim in PMs, possibly by one of us fakeclaiming seer. The idea is to see if they contradict each other by claiming the same color, which would force a thunderdome.

What has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?

To respond to the whole post instead of just the one snippet:
From an outside perspective it kinda looks like you're pushing Xiao because that's the only option you have (which it would be if you're trying to win with the other wolf—if we lynch a wolf today and you're the last remaining wolf, then you're most likely going to be lynched next day phase, so it sorta is your only option to win with the other wolf), which doesn't really answer the question on who the other wolf is.

I don't really wanna go just on vibes alone, but to me it definitely feels like your train of wolf hunting starts and ends at Xiao.

(though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it)

Hm? Unless there's a way earlier post that you're referring to, I was the one who first brought it up this phase.