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But how exactly would that happen? A vote that is decided by the naughty list would essentially be a vote that was tied otherwise, in which case every vote would have been "decisive" anyway

Since the list is cumulative, the lynch victim could be down a vote or two and still lose in later days

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

A bit of a meh post, while the former is something that wouldn't be terribly relevant to a wolf (although it could influence their strategy) it ends with a vague note on "unusual voting patterns". Still, this doesn't seem to be outside math's typical meta (even if I've only seen town!math once)

To specify, an example of an unusual voting pattern in my interpretation would be a player voting for someone that seemingly doesn't swing things but turns out to be the decider when naughty list is factored in

Howdy y'all

Will we know if we're on the naughty list? Either way, we'll have to watch for some unusual voting patterns

[In]

In

Since I had been talking to TZP about why BDS was being handed so much info despite being unconfirmed, it got me thinking through different theories and while I was rereading the thread, it all clicked. Xiao being the CO was the ONE possibility that would lead me to not trust BDS, and it happened to be true. I was so proud of that little rant I made. First time I've really gone hard to solve a game state. It just so happens that it was tailored to the only others who were also distrusting of BDS...TZP and Toby...AND it was wrong. 

Sorry team

Low key ban-able offense lol

[BDS]

BDS

I've given my explanation

My vote preferences would go in this order, top to bottom

BDS: I think I've said enough lol
Toby: the Waluigi writing style thing could be a kick in the teeth if it was in front of us and we missed it, so that still bugs me. But I'm conflicted because the green/red reading gives human points from my interpretation, and lately Toby and I have been thinking the same on certain things.
TZP: I think we've been thinking similarly all game. Green seering helps. Hopefully not using that to buddy up and betray me but I think he's got a human mindset
THC: Anyone else and I may dismiss THC for being the N1 wolfing. But I can't. That being said though, I'm not voting THC because I group him similarly to BDS but I have less evidence against him

Let me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

You say that but the game is still going and we don't have many credible leads. The wolves have done a good job of confusing us

"For the sake of subverting expectations." It's a role deception game, so yes

But this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

I gave your green reading more weight because it came with a wolf's red reading. It looked like you were being framed.

And yes, my recent accusation is bold. I'm aware I've drawn lots of suspicion toward myself and that if I'm wrong we could lose the game. I took a gamble by posting that but I believe it.

1. Again, for reasons I mentioned in my prior post, gamestate doesn't make sense if I were a wolf, and to think I'm a wolf would have to be ignoring all of these to various degrees. If I were a wolf, this would be an incredibly sloppy game for me, to say the least, with me intentionally dancing around wolves' win condition and deliberately sabotaging myself instead of making optimal, obvious plays.

But obvious is not always optimal. As someone who keeps bringing up veteran player status, you could be trying to dismiss yourself from the conversation when a wolf makes an unexpected play. That's how I see it

[Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.]

I'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

The PMs check out, that's good info.

This is reasonable, but the more time goes on, the more likely the wolves are to home in on the identity of the CO via their seerings, which are more accurate than the human seer's. Given that the wolves have had three seerings and six phases' worth of social deductions to try to figure it out, my personal opinion is that a claim is far more likely to be helpful to the humans at this stage in the game.

I agree with TZP. As a human sitting in the dark, I don't know my direction for voting tomorrow, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable by the notion that we should prioritize a phase that may not even happen.

BDS and/or THC, could you expand on the mindset that it isn't important for humans to know the CO?

Also so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense? And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case? Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Since Waluigi apparently seered me night 1, it's possible I was the actual target and received the infamous blue reading truthfully, which would make me the herring. What that wouldn't explain is why I (or N1P2) didn't die the next night. So it's unlikely, but a possibility nonetheless

N1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

I get town vibes from the plan, but I want to ask: why did N1P2 trust you so much? Would you be willing to share some of the content of your PMs? I say this because it's reminiscent of the plan a couple games ago when Specs fake claimed seer in a similar way and he was a wolf. The reason for doing it now is different but the way you can gain trust from doing so is the same