Messages

[TWG Kirby]

TWG Kirby.

You're not giving me a fair shake at all.  You want to vote for someone who supported the theory that inactives are wolves?  Vote for TWG Falcon, who confidently voted for Mario on the basis of inactivity, spammed a lot Night 1, and generally fits the profile of someone who'd miss a wolfing on purpose.  Or for whoever voted for Ness first, I forget who that was.  Don't vote for me, who argued both sides of the issue before ultimately concluding what you disagree with.  And who only posted once Night 1.  It'd be an unnecessary risk to take if I were a wolf to skip a wolfing since I'm like the second person that points to.

The only reason you're voting for me over Falcon is because I've got votes on me already.

Why would I touch that theory with a thirty-nine and a half foot pole if I were a wolf?  Nobody else seems to buy it, and it points to me being a wolf way more than the alternative theory does.  The missed wolfing being intentional points to me being human since I was one of the least active people Night 1 (after Ness, I was the person who posted farthest from the end time of the phase.)

Your logic should reach the conclusion that I'm a likely human!

Apology to Kirby for shrugging his vote off like that.  I just don't see where you're coming from.  If, as you argued in the chat, you believe that the missed wolfing was intentional, you should also believe that I'm unlikely to be a wolf.  If I were a wolf, I'd make sure I was spamming, or at least talking, all during Night 1.  That way, I wouldn't be suspected for missing a wolfing.  I'd also probably take a side on this argument.

I also think I made it clear in the chat that I hadn't made a solid decision on this issue yet.

So I'm being lynched by TWG Pikachu for not being decisive enough and by TWG Kirby for being too decisive?

Can we get people in the chatroom?  I doubt too many people will be willing to chat tomorrow before 11AM EST, and I'd prefer not to have a two-vote KITB.  If people want to lynch me, that's fine.  But having a two-vote lynch all but guarantees it's not going to be a wolf we lynch.

[TWG Mario]

I'll repeat an argument I made in the chatroom because it's the main reason why I'm re-changing my mind on this issue:  I think the missed wolfing was accidental.  I remembered a TWG a long time ago (Pokemon Black and White I think) in which three normally-reliable wolves in Jub3r7, Locke (Faux), and Saint Swooper all missed a wolfing on Night 1.  In this game, there's one fewer wolf, a lot less activity, and potential concerns with the new accounts.

Call it bandwagoning if you want, but I'm inclined to vote TWG Mario because of this.  Based on the fact that he hasn't posted anything other than "Me ready to play" and Day 1's almost over, I think it's fair to speculate that he's a typically inactive player.  The same could be said for TWG Fox.  My defense as to why I should be saved over those two is that, base on my activity in both the thread and the chat, I think it's reasonable to say that I'm a generally more active player than those two are, and players who tend to be active also tend to not miss wolfings.

Honestly was ninja'd by Pikachu.

I don't know what arguments I've been making that are contradictory.  Yes, I've changed my mind.  And I think changing my mind is a reason why I'm an obvious human.  A wolf would have set people that he doesn't want to see lynched today, and I've been going back and forth because there's no player who's my partner.

http://us11.chatzy.com/89650852959951 is the chat link.

I think everyone would agree that a random kitb is a pretty bad situation.  Lady and gents, we have 4 hours and 20 minutes.  Maybe 5 hours and 20 minutes.  I'm not sure what the difference between EST and EDT is.

I was reviewing an argument Bowser made earlier.  I think I'm reaching the opposite conclusion he did, though.  TWG Ness had only been active for 10 minutes on Night 1.  But he was active on Night 1.  That means he would have seen his role PM.

It'd be reeeeally helpful to know who the accounts behind the accounts were if we're assuming that the missed wolfing was an accident.  Right now I'm leaning towards it not being an accident though.

This game has too much uncertainty 

[TWG Yoshi]

Double-posting because I think this is more thought-provoking.  There are two entirely different sets of suspects depending on whether you think it's more likely that the missed wolfing was intentional or accidental.  If it was intentional, the people who spammed are more likely to be wolves demonstrating that they were present Night 1.  If it was accidental, people like me, Ness, Fox, Yoshi, and Samus who posted 0-1 times are more likely to be wolves. 

I feel I'm much more likely to be in the accidental group than the intentional group.  I had the time to spam if I wanted to, but I didn't feel the need to since I'm a human who didn't know the wolves were going to skip the wolfing.  If I were a wolf who had access to that information, I'd absolutely spam so it'd look less likely that I accidentally missed the wolfing.

I feel like TWG Yoshi is someone who had a partner in the spammy Night 1 group and was told to post before the end of the phase.  The "I feel I should make my presence known" post semi-late in the phase makes me think that an experienced wolf partner told him to say something so he wouldn't look suspicious.

Well everybody's lame for not trying to be BDS!

@TWG DK:  I can understand where you're coming from, but I really don't think your conclusion is logical given that I recanted pretty much everything I said about 15 minutes later.  The reason I did that was because of what I brought up right at the end of my first post:  Ness is the only player who didn't say anything during Night 1. 

I thought about that a bit more, and realized that it's smarter numbers-wise for the wolves to not wolf anyone on Night 1.  We don't have any more lynch opportunities because of the missed wolfing, and every day there's one more human who the wolves could potentially lynch instead of one of their own.

@TWG Bowser:  I explained the reason for my change in behavior, and believe that that explanation is superior to the explanation that would lead you to think I was a wolf.  What I meant by saying I didn't post much but wasn't inactive was that I was reading the thread, but didn't see anything worth commenting on.  I then realized the possibility I discussed above, and changed my mind.  Think of it this way:  which is more probable?  That I'm a human and reconsidered within a span of 15 minutes, or that I'm a wolf, that somehow I got new information within those 15 minutes that only a wolf would get, and changed my mind?  I think you'll agree that the former seems much more likely.

Ninja'd by Link.  The reason I said that I'd suspect me of doing that the most (being the other inactive wolf to an inactive Ness) was because I only posted once in Night 1 and it was before Waddle said that all the PM's were out.

It's also possible that the wolves no wolfed on purpose for strategic reasons; skipping only one wolfing doesn't give us any more lynches.

...in which case I begin to suspect the players I said we should ignore for today in my last post. 

Can we all start talking like BlackDragonSlayer?  Knowing who he was in the last game made guessing pretty boring; we wouldn't want to take away all the fun, would we?   That is, of course, assuming I'm not BlackDragonSlayer trying to pull some very clever shenanigans that will hide my identity...










































 

Ninja'd by Link.  http://us11.chatzy.com/89650852959951 was the one TWG Bowser posted earlier.  I'm not particularly familiar with the inner workings of chatzy so it might not still be in operation, however, I feel that we can just post a new link every time we want to chat should that occur.

Hmm...

I guess I could be thrown into the group of people who were potentially inactive last night, but I wasn't inactive.  I just chose not to post much after saying that I had the first post.

At the very least, Bowser, Kirby, DK, Pikachu, and Falcon can probably be ignored for the day phase barring doing something ridiculously suspicious.

The thing that bothers me, though, is that only Ness didn't post, which implies that there was a wolf who did post and yet still didn't wolf.  And I'd probably suspect me of doing that most.

first post

I guess I picked the wrong person falcon?

[TWG Bowser]

I've made a decision.

TWG Bowser

Let's hope that he was the wolf.