Messages

Going to bed and sticking with Falcon. 

Yoshi, while I appreciate your conclusion, I'm not really standing by my original theory that the wolfing was accidentally missed.  Yes, I recognize that as a strong possibility, which is I think more than most people would give it.  No, I'm not going to base the rest of my suspicions on it unless future deaths indicate that it's more likely.  I'll be progressing as I did in the suspicion list at the start of this phase, taking into account both theories.  I would advise all of you to do the same.  If you're sold on the missed wolfing being intentional, that means turning a blind eye to quite a few players in the game.

I have reservations about Kirby since he seemed legitimately frustrated by me not agreeing with his arguments, though at the end of the day Kirby's my number two and I'm not all that upset that we're lynching him over Falcon.  I don't think the Falcon vote was unwarranted given that he called me "glaringly suspicious" despite never having expressed that sentiment beforehand.  Kirby's vote for me, by my understanding, largely rested on me suspecting inactives, which is something Falcon himself did.  This is different from the rationale that justified my original suspicion of Falcon because I didn't care about the fact that he suspected inactives so much as I did the fact that his Night 1 spam seemed to me like the way wolves intentionally skipping the wolfing would behave.

Ninja'd by both Ness and Link.  To Link, the only observation I have is that if Pikachu's a wolf, he didn't make last night's wolfing since he didn't log on during last Night and hasn't logged on this day phase.  To Ness, I'll agree that the original Falcon suspicion wasn't that strong, and that's why I didn't vote on it yesterday even though I had all the information to do so.  I think the version that includes the accusation of "sheeping" Kirby is much stronger.  Think about your defenses for me and Kirby.  They're both based off how we would have backed down if we were wolves.  Falcon's vote for Kirby without explaining why he isn't voting for me is a perfect example of what you would've expected either of us to do if we were wolves.

http://us11.chatzy.com/89650852959951.  This is the chat link.  We're not starting for two hours and 15 minutes though.

I think it's fair to make a day 1 vote based the wolves being inactive.  I have a better suspicion now, so I'll go with what I have now.  That's how it works.  The wolves in the current game had more of an opportunity to wolf than the ones in this game.  (They're Locke (Faux), Saint Swooper, and Jub3r7.)  I don't think it's unreasonable to think that it's possible that the missed wolfing in this game was also an accident given:
A:  Odds are they don't have as much experience as those three.
B:  There's only two wolves instead of three.
C:  People were switching back and forth between their TWG accounts and their real accounts and might not have realized when they needed to wolf.

Are there strong arguments for the missed wolfing this game being intentional?  Sure.  In this game, it was numerically strategic to not wolf (an argument I was the first to make, by the way).

I don't know why you think I wouldn't be able to get out of this lynch as a wolf.  All that's against me is that I supported an opinion that people disagreed with and voted based on that opinion.  My defense is that me being wolves with every other player currently alive doesn't make sense. 

Yes, you can poke little holes in it by saying that it's possible that DK is my wolf partner despite the fact that he voted for me first and didn't save me from a KitB when he had the chance.  Or by saying that I might have taken a gigantic risk by building what I think is a pretty solid case against my wolf partner Falcon and then calling him out for sheeping your case against me.  Pick any two players randomly on the list, and odds are you can't build as good a defense for them not being wolf partners as I've built up with any single player on the list.

[Falcon]

I'll only respond additionally to the part about the groups because it's the only part I think I can convince a human of if they're not already convinced.  The groups are especially significant because while the people in them are not impossible as wolf partners, it'd be unprecedented if the majority of them were my partner. 

Take, for example, Link.  Nobody lets their wolf partner go into a KiTB if they have the choice and then argues against them when they survive it.  It wouldn't be shocking if he was a wolf and I was a human and he did that.

Or Kirby.  Nobody leads a charge of this scale against their wolf partner when they're salvageable.

Or Pikachu.  Nobody uses their only post of the day to make their wolf partner the day's leader in votes.

Or Fox.  Nobody let their wolf partner go into a KiTB if they could stop it.

Or DK.  See above, but he also placed the first vote on me.

Or Falcon.  Nobody suspected him before.  I've devoted multiple posts to arguing why he should be lynched at the very least ahead of me, and he's probably going to sheep Kirby's charge.

Or Ness.  Because, as I forgot before, he self-safetied when I was the leader in votes, later than Samus' vote and after Pikachu put me in the lead.  And he and I being wolves makes no sense if you support the theory that the missed wolfing was intentional given his inactivity.

I think it says a lot when only two players (Yoshi and Samus) are within the realm of reasonable possibility as wolf partners for me.  I tried to lynch Yoshi at one point yesterday and Kirby put him at the bottom of his suspicion list anyways.  The other (Samus) is seventh on Kirby's suspicion list, and your reasoning for putting her low on your suspicion list (it'd be careless for her to self-vote when there's no vote leader) doubles if I'm her wolf partner and I already have a vote on me.

Try as you might, you'll never come up with a defense half as strong as that for any other player in the game.  Actually, maybe you could for Samus.  I don't know, I was doing it off-hand when I did my suspicion list.

I should be asleep now and I'll address the rest later, but one important thing I want to ask now.

Say you're exactly right.  I masterminded this brilliant plan where I would wolf nobody on purpose, and I rely on people checking the Last Online tab to see that I was, in fact, able to make the wolfing but chose not to post.  This is brilliant evidence because, predicting that the people will decide that the missed wolfing was intentional, they'll assume I would've posted more to demonstrate activity.  This evidence makes a very strong case for my humanity.  Why do I destroy that evidence less than 40 minutes into Day 1 by logging in and posting before anyone checks it?

[more]

To me, Falcon's behavior doesn't match up with what I'd expect from a wolf who would willingly skip a wolfing (which is the most likely explanation at this point). It seems that you and I are approaching this situation with two completely different mindsets!

I know we've gone round and round about this, but I just don't see how you reach this conclusion at all.  If you're going to miss the wolfing on purpose with the plan to vote inactives, you're going to demonstrate that you aren't one of the inactives.  Night 1 spam is one way to do that.  Staying silent for the majority of the night is not.  Yes, you can construe the evidence to point to me as a wolf if you want to say that I'd predict that the humans would all agree that the missed wolfing was intentional and thus stayed super quiet on purpose.  If I really thought that though, I wouldn't argue the opposite, and arguing that this goes in Falcon's favor is just construing the evidence.

Let's be fair, though, and evaluate your defense of Falcon.  It (at least in my understanding) is based on the fact that Falcon, at one point in the day phase, argued that Bowser was a wolf and defended Ness, which means that Falcon wasn't planning on missing the wolfing and then taking advantage of that fact.  My understanding of the quotation Kirby's talking about is "Obviously, Ness and any other inactives are hella sketchy, but the way Bowser is relentlessly attacking everyone is a bit off-putting." In the same breath, he talks about how inactives are suspicious!

If I wanted to better my position as a wolf, I could have just shut up about the missed wolfing being accidental since I was probably one of the last people who would have been suspected to intentionally miss the wolfing.  Again, you could try to construe this against me by saying that I thought I'd look more human by arguing against the theory that leads to me being human.  But that's an unnecessary risk.  Sure, I might come off as more human.  But there's also the chance I come off as less human.  When the status quo already makes me look human, there's no reason for wolf-me to take that risk. 

And finally, everyone in this game falls into one or more of four groups that make them really unlikely wolf partners for me:

Group 1:  I voted for them/argued strongly for them being a wolf:  (TWG Mario, TWG Yoshi, TWG Kirby, TWG Falcon)
Group 2:  Voted for me/suspects me now:  (TWG Link, TWG Kirby, TWG Pikachu, TWG DK, TWG Falcon)
Group 3:  Could have saved me from a KiTB but didn't:  (TWG Yoshi, TWG Link, TWG Kirby, TWG Samus*, TWG Fox, TWG DK)
Group 4:  Is Ness and there's no way I intentionally skip the wolfing if my partner's the only player in the game who didn't post Night 1 (TWG Ness)

*I doubt Samus would self-vote if I were her partner and was currently tied for the lead in votes when there were other justifiable votes.  Admittedly, Samus is probably the weakest point in my defense.

I think that's a lot more solid of a defense than the one you have for Falcon.

The only player I could see matching with the accidental no-wolfing would be TWG Link, and that's only because, in his own words, he's had a bad internet connection! Even then, I doubt his partner would be so negligent as to miss a wolfing, given the time it takes to send a PM!

Link posted like 30 minutes before the Night 1 ended.  I doubt his internet was an issue.

We don't know the alternate accounts, but if the player never logged into their account on Night 1 or was super inactive like Mario or Fox during the majority of Day 1, it's likely they weren't paying attention to the game.

I can't tell if the missed Night 1 wolfing was accidental, and am accounting for both possibilities in my suspicion list.  I say DK is human because, while he would be the type of person to intentionally miss a wolfing, his behavior after the fact suggests that he is not a wolf.

Figures my suspicion list is almost the polar opposite of Kirby's.  Really I could see myself voting for anyone 1-6 today.  I'll be in the chat tomorrow though.

Spoiler

1.  TWG Falcon:  This is pending his explanation for his suspicion of me.  He clearly doesn't suspect me for voting Mario because that's also who he found the most suspicious.  Maybe it's because I don't understand why Kirby is suspicious of me.  He was part of the Night 1 spamming, and ended up voting for an inactive.  If a player did end up missing the wolfing on purpose, Falcon's the player who fits that profile most in my opinion.  If you spam, you demonstrate that you viewed the thread a lot and thus didn't miss the wolfing on accident.  Going after the inactives does strengthen his position because he's not an inactive.

2.  TWG Kirby:  I just can't find any common ground with Kirby.  His argument about Falcon is counterintuitive to me, I still don't really understand why he thinks my behavior is wolfy, and his suspicion list is pretty much upside-down from mine.  I feel like he's trying to interpret the evidence in any way he can that goes against me.  I guess I give him credit for being the only person other than DK to go

3.  TWG Ness:  Ness is pretty much the prototypical player for the Night 1 no-wolf being an accident.  He was barely even online during the first phase of the game and he was online last night.  And I would've expected there to be more support for the Ness lynch if the missed wolfing were intentional.  Otherwise there's no reason to suspect him other than a lot of the rest of the game seeming human.

4.  TWG Pikachu:  It's had to analyze a player whose only post last phase was a vote against me for exactly the opposite reasons as Kirby's.  Of note is that he didn't log on to his account all of last night phase.  Pikachu strikes me as a fairly new player who wouldn't realize that he could probably wolf from his real account, though.  I haven't gotten confirmation from Waddle Bro that wolfing from your other account is legitimate though.

5.  TWG Fox:  Fox, to a lesser degree, fits the same pattern as Ness.  Posted only once and early little Night 1 (to the point where I think he might have forgotten to wolf) and more during Night 2, so he might have been able to wolf.  The reason he's below Ness is because I can almost guarantee Fox isn't a wolf with either Samus or Mario because if he was he would've voted last night when there was a KiTB.

6.  TWG Link:  Link mentioned having internet connectivity issues.  I doubt he'd intentionally miss a wolfing knowing that he had issues connecting to the internet and might have to miss another one.  I'm a lot less confident in this now than I was earlier though, especially as I'm realizing that Link isn't who I thought he was.

7.  TWG Samus:  Samus was also in the KiTB last Night and wasn't online all of the last Night phase.  I suppose it's possible that Samus made the wolfing from her other account.  But if she had a partner who was active at the end of last day phase (READ:  Me, Kirby, DK, Yoshi, Fox) that partner would have been sure to vote for me or Mario.  If she had a partner who wasn't active last Night phase, the wolfing probably doesn't happen. 

8.  TWG Yoshi:  In the chatzy, TWG Yoshi tried to convince me that the missed wolfing was likely intentional.  I think that, if he were a wolf, I'd be the last person he would try to convince of that.  When I operated under that assumption, I thought Yoshi was a wolf.  He has no incentive to argue that to me unless he's a human who honestly believes it.

9.  TWG DK:  If my guess as to the identity of DK is accurate, he absolutely strikes me as the type of player who'd miss a wolfing on purpose and but unlikely to miss it on accident.  However, I think that if he missed the wolfing on purpose he'd also try to do something with it.  And very few people make reasonable wolf partners for DK.  There's no way the wolf pairing is DK x Ness since that'd be screwing over his wolf partner.  There's no way it's Mario or Samus because then removing his vote from me causes one of those people to be in a KiTB.  And I don't think Fox makes sense either as a wolf partner either due to his inactivity.

10.  TWG Luigi:  Defense coming in my next post.

[close]

I today would be a good day to make suspicion lists.  I typed one out last night but then my internet connection cut out on me during one of my previews and I lost it.  So I'll try to re-type it somewhat soon.  Other than the bottom three, it was pretty muddled though.

Fox who would you have lynched yesterday?  I'm curious since we've heard the least from you out of any of the currently alive players.

[TWG Mario]

The vote on Kirby was definitely out of frustration more than anything.  It's usually a bad idea to vote for people on the assumption that they're wolf partners with another player, which is the only way my vote for Kirby makes sense (assuming he and Falcon are wolf partners).

I think I'm back to TWG Mario as my best lead.  Here's why:

When the wolves chose not to wolf someone, they were either doing it to lynch the inactives, or to lynch the people who were trying to lynch the inactives.  Unless they were doing it strictly for the numbers advantage, which I seriously doubt.

People are voting for me and I'm voting for inactives, but (barring Kirby, and I'll get to him later) that's not why I'm being voted.  Falcon and Samus also voted for inactives, but they're not being lynched.  Yoshi voted for Samus but the chatlog doesn't support that being the reason for Yoshi's vote either.  If Kirby were going into the phase with that mindset, he would have voted for someone else earlier, probably Samus.  Maybe Falcon.  I don't know, but he wouldn't wait that late in the phase if that were his mindset from the start.

So what we're left with is the wolves trying to lynch the inactives.  I think Falcon might fit this pattern, but as Kirby pointed out, first Falcon went after Bowser.  If Falcon's a wolf, Mario, Fox, or Ness is the easier vote.  At the same time, Samus eventually took back her vote on Ness, and I think she'd realize as a wolf that Ness's activity now doesn't explain inactivity Night 1.

This leads me to conclude that it's more likely that the wolves did not intentionally skip the wolfing.  Ness, Fox, and Mario strike me as the type of people to miss wolfings. 

hey fox and/or dk, come to our chatzy:  http://us11.chatzy.com/89650852959951

I'm not saying that Falcon spammed any more than Night 1.  I'm saying that he demonstrated activity by posting a lot during Night 1, even if it didn't have any substance.  Yes, people could check who was available to post Night 1 for accounts like Ness.  That doesn't work for the rest of the accounts that have been used before.

Yes, the cool "missed wolfing was intentional" is what the hivemind says.  You yourself admitted that I'm the one making the strongest argument for the missed wolfing being an accident.  And I'm far from certain about that (in fact, I'm so uncertain about that that I'm voting for someone I don't think would have forgotten).  I was talking in the chat with Yoshi and he agrees with you.

I'm also still in the chatroom if you want to have a faster way to communicate.

This sentence is one of the reasons why I'm voting for you. You are acting like what you've done, and are doing now, completely clears you! I don't see how you can say how TWG Falcon "fits the profile of someone who'd miss a wolfing on purpose" when he's "spamming," something you mentioned yourself! What's the point of a well-laid plan if you scramble it by acting like a fool (by "spamming," as you say).

I don't understand what you're saying.  TWG Falcon spammed on Night 1.  I think that, if the wolves missed the wolfing on purpose, they did so under the mindset that they would be able to lynch inactives based on that.  So in order to lynch inactives, they'd make sure that they posted as much as possible to prove that they'd be able to make a wolfing.  The point of spamming is simply to demonstrate that you had the capability to wolf.

Couldn't the same be said of you for TWG Mario? Also, it makes no sense why I wouldn't just say something like, "Yeah, now that you mention it, you're right, I think inactives are behind this" and vote for... TWG MARIO?? Or just agree with you about the inactives in the first place?

Yeah, it could explain why I was voting TWG Mario.  TWG Mario and TWG Fox are pretty much identical, so I voted for the one that was more likely to be lynched.  TWG Falcon and I are not identical, and by most reasonable wolf detection systems he makes more sense as a wolf.  And the reason why you wouldn't vote for TWG Mario is because it's way easier to go with the hivemind, and at the end of the day people are going to whine if you lynch inactives on Day 1.  You yourself argued that I was the strongest voice out there saying that I think the wolfing was accidental, and I'm far from certain on the issue.