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N1P2, did the chosen one claim to you ? Can you reveal which TWG account is confirmed human seer now?

[Specs]

My gut is leaning town on math and I was leaning between specs and Xiao and given the vote count I'll put it on Specs

I think his 2 mistakes was a slip where he was trying to get further ammunition to make cases against math and TZP and was hoping to not be called out on it. I think his interaction with Waluigi was a bit odd and he had resistance to my plan which was going to help us confirm the human seer.

Also according to TZP he was showing a different tone to my plan in the topic compared to PM's which I find strange. As if he was afraid to show his true opinion in topic or trying to sway people behind the scenes.

Couple hours left in phase

I'm leaning Xiao for lack of activity, and he said he'd provide a suspicion list but hasn't - although poet did this last game and was human so it might actually be a human tell rather than wolf

Or honestly maybe Specs as I've found just some of his posts to be slightly off, and he's been caught out on 2 mistakes against TZP and Math - has he been trying to grasp at straws to get ammunition against his irl friends who can read him well? I would like to hear more from TZP and math against Specs as they know him best but I think it's especially interesting they both chose to vote their irl friend day 1 and I don't think you'd do that unless you really thought they were a wolf. I don't see a wolf leading a lynch against their irl friend day 1 - seems nasty lol !

I did think I would have ended this phase voting math purely based on activity, but although he hasn't posted a lot it's not been as low as activity as previous games. I'm feeling the activity this game is actually okay, with Xiao maybe being the only exception due to his posts not having much content to them as of now.

TZP has also had low activity but his posts have been content heavy which does give us something to read. And I think it's very brave to start the first accusation of the game going against your irl friend, which is majorly risky that I don't think I see a wolf doing

That's what I thought initially (mentioned it here), but given that I posted after Waluigi had already revealed his "results" I didn't think too much of it. Regardless, I feel most wolves wouldn't want to immediately cast doubt on their seer account. Even without the slip-up that would've led to some initial hesitation toward the account.

I would agree if I hadn't said a plan that should lead to either twg Luigi or twg Waluigi being dubbed the wolf. So it's entirely possible he was distancing himself to try get ahead of the game. But that's quite the mind game.

On that did all claims come through n1p2? Do you know which TWG account is the aloof seer ?

I also just caught Specs interaction with Waluigi

GTH, the proximity of the Waluigi's post to the wolfing leads me to believe he's the Aloof Wolf, but thats just speculation.

I thought it was an odd comment to make though and I'm not sure on the relevance of post time next to phase being alignment indicative

If anything wouldn't wolves take longer to make a post after phase update because they have each other to discuss the seer result with first ?

... I just realised that Specs made the comment after the 'WAAA' and not the seer. But maybe Waluigi just intended to 'Waa' at the outcome of the phase update regardless

But yeah would wolf Specs make a comment to distance himself from twg Waluigi immediately if TWG Waluigi was his account? Was it possibly a 2 way plan where TWG Waluigi posts anything and Specs posts in quick succession to try distance Specs from being TWG Waluigi ? ... but then at that point there was no suspicion on TWG Waluigi to want to distance themselves ? But with the plan I proposed we should eventually find out if either TWG Waluigi or Twg Luigi are the aloof seer so maybe Specs was trying to distance immediately ??

This is all huge speculation and nothing concrete

I did just think the immediate GTH on TWG Waluigi being wolf was a bit odd
And also considering Specs had resistance towards my plan that could help us find out if TWG Luigi or Waluigi was the aloof seer... maybe it's adding up that Specs wanted to distance himself early from the tag wolf shaman

2 of Specs irl friends voting him, are you noticing a change in characteristic or are you both basing your reasoning on events?

Thinking along the lines of players who have been quiet, TZP also hasn't posted much this game. Xiao actually has more posts. But doing a comparison TZP's posts are more content filled. TZP's tone this game also seems similar to his previous game where he was human, but still a change in tone from his games before that which is probably just non alignment indicative.

I'll be interested to see what Xiaos suspicion list looks like and if we would be likely to get more content from him in the game

Yeah, if that actually happened it would be called bastardry and I'm a bit weirded out that you brought that up

@Xiao fyi I don't think Oricorio is calling you a bastard or anything of the sort. He seems to come from a more mafia style forum rather than werewolf game and mafia uses vulgar language such as bastard or scum as meanings for other things.

I've never been clear on what bastard actually means in mafia terms though

Also @Oricorio Xiao has never hosted and I believe only played his first twg when the games were revived a few months ago - so I don't think he's questioning integrity of the host, just hasn't had experience hosting or how roles are generally selected. I've actually heard the suggestion that hosts might choose a players role for them multiple times, so apparently it's quite a common to think among newer players and not everyone realises it's all literally random

Some thoughts on Xiao and math guy

mathguy
Believes Waluigi wolf slipped, but didnt want to read into BDS calling it out - I thought it was an interesting point not to want to read into BDS calling it out. I thought it was an interesting catch and leaned human on BDS for it
Supported SL lamb claim so CO could claim to them - but did so after the SL had already claimed so kind of null
Was for THC being revived tonight to also help prove SL claim. Said THC was a confirmed human which I'm not sure if we can guarantee though. No word of possibility THC could be a wolf. - maybe calling THC a confirmed human is too obvious to do if math is a wolf ? More likely might just be an oversight on human part

Xiao

post to receive emails

I think this is an odd opener and not one Xiao has ever done before. It's like he wants to post but was afraid of what to say.
-felt like my plan 'costed too many humans' I didn't follow? But I think Specs and BDS had same reservations so they can't all be wolves. But maybe he was just piggy backing on their resistance so the plan wouldn't go ahead and we find out which TWG account is the CO.
-wasn't for reviving THC right now. If Xiao is a wolf this would suggest to me that THC probably isn't a wolf. I think not reviving our night 1 target can be quite damaging for the humans so I'm not sure if wolf Xiao would be so openly against it

——

Some separate thoughts on reviving THC:
The thing is if we don't revive THC and want to wait for another night kill, n1p2 is probably going to be killed n2, so another night kill won't happen until n3, which means can't be revived n4. N4 could be passed the lynch or lose point so we should revive by night 3. It could be possible THC is a wolf, so it might be an idea to hold our revive until night 3 and see if the night 2 kill feels like a better option? Or we can at least discuss our options come day 2. I don't think not having an extra human day 2 is that damaging as humans still have a lot of numbers. I also think it's likely that n1p2 will be wolfed tonight so THC might still be the only option for revival come night 3.

—

Between math and Xiao I'm not sure. If both are going to be quiet I'd rather lunch one to help process of elimination for later game. Xiao is usually more active so could post more later but then it's odd for him to be quiet, and with the first opener of the game it felt like he had resistance with posting and unsure what to say rather than it come natural

Specs/TZP are you both and math guy conversations in PMs? Is math guy contributing more in pms than in topic ? He's only posted 5 times so far this game in topic but believe he contributed in pm more when he was a wolf

i mean im not gonna not say a plan just because it's late in the phase. I didn't know if I'd be wolfed and I didn't want to die with that

Toby, the plan was originally yours, although I went ahead and PM'd N1P2 suggesting he ask for CO claims, since Waluigi has more or less been confirmed as the fraud alt. Luigi could then prove the COs identity. With Waluigi out the equation, it became much easier to prove the COs identity.

When you later suggested everyone claim to N1P2, thats when I said "I'll bite on Tobys plan" to N1P2.

Did I not already say they should in topic?

Going by previous games I'd be happy to lynch any quieter players to get them out the way

right now I'm looking at Xaio or math guy. Xiao is usually more talkative so this is odd from him. Math guy I'm sure was only more talkative when he was a wolf, but I'm sure I called him out on that so could be a choice to resist himself

It is possible that THC is Luigi, as dead players can still post in the anonymous account and he still would have presumably gotten the seer results. I feel Luigi should tell the game if THC is truly their identity, but otherwise they should stay hidden to the thread at large.

If THC is luigi he should only reveal that to n1p2 not the topic. The wolves can redirect the chosen one even if dead so if that's revealed then none of the seering results will be reliable

S U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

I mean in my defence there was still 6 hours left in the phase when I posted my plan, which was 25% of the phase remaining. I didn't pay too much attention to the setup as I originally didn't see a way for alliance at signups but when I looked at the game the next day I posted my plan at irl 12pm which still had loads of time until the phase ended.

If it was as easy a plan to spot and say sooner then anyone else could have posted it sooner, and I do think 6 hours was still plenty of time but it was met with immediate resistance from yourself and specs when I posted it, causing it to not really go ahead until day.