Messages

The seer/wolf combo was powerful. Especially when we weren't sure if one seer was a wolf or if both were humans. Subconsciously, I kept thinking seers were humans and I had to remind myself constantly that TZP could've been a wolf.

With BDS voting Xiao D3, there wasn't really any hope for the town. BDS voting Xiao was the vote that TZP needed, and that was game.

I'm glad THC wasn't a wolf. That would've been funny but I'm glad he didn't do that lol

Yeah. I was actually ready to vote BDS last minute because Xiao wasn't changing his vote to me. But I trusted my gut and figured wolf!Xiao may have known my vote was .5

Damn. Back to back blue seer hits and I get them both wrong. Horrible way to lose.

[Specs]

Specs

Specs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?

My thoughts:
wolf!Xiao would probably paint TZP, given the talk of TZP being a wolf.
wolf!TZP would probably paint Xiao, given I've been pretty human leaning on BDS.
wolf!BDS I think would also paint TZP.

Specs, do you think there's any chance BDS is red wolf

If he is, we have two wolves alive right now.

If red-wolf!BDS exists, he probably painted you red. TZP wouldn't seer himself, and I doubt I was considered much for being a seer target. However, TZP said he red-seer'd you green last night.

So, if BDS is the red wolf, I think TZP is the blue wolf. Not a good spot to be in, and I'd wager the town has lost by now if that's the case.

I want to think about red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP for a bit. And see if that even makes sense.

First, I trust his red seer claim. No one counterclaimed, and no way would he risk fakeclaiming, banking on THC being the red seer. N1P2 explicitly did not claim seer.

This means he performed all 3 actions on Oricorio N2. But if you're trying to set up a Oricorio push, why also seer him? In hopes of find the red wolf and teaming up? That's a strange move if you reduced his vote. Furthermore, if I didn't find Oricorio's blue painting, then TZP has a green hit on Oricorio, which probably gets shared publicly. That doesn't help Oricorio get lynched.

Also, back to the insurance PM that TZP sent me late D2. "If I die, go after Xiao". Unless it's reverse-psychology, wolf!TZP shouldn't really care about what happens if he dies. If he dies, he loses. End of story. Especially with 3 minutes left in phase, this felt incredibly human.

Posting BDS' gambit publicly doesn't really prove much, as I think TZP knew it was a gambit.

TLDR, I'm not convinced the actions of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP makes sense. Also, the Insurance PM felt very human.

Ninja'd by Xiao. I'll think about it.

Specs can, uh, verify that. It was worth a shot to potentially trip up blue wolf TZP.

Confirmed.

Isn't it going to be BDS or you? i.e. the players most likely to be human?

The wolves want a player at full strength to be lynched. So yes, I think there's a good chance I got the .5 vote. BDS is also plausible. Unfortunately, the more I think about it, that puts the town into a bind. Either lynch the wolf or lynch a non-suspicious player to survive (which doesn't help anything). Lynch a suspicious player and the town loses. We're probably going to have to lynch the wolf today to win.

So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.

I wanted to bring up this message as well. I think Oricorio's argument about BDS's reaction to the wolf gambit still holds true. The difference here is that red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP is a possibility and should not be protected because he's simply a seer- he may be the only wolf left!

Right now, I'd feeling led to vote either Xiao or TZP. Curious to hear more tomorrow. Fairly slow day today.

Overall, Xiao had the most obvious push on voting Oricorio out. He did have a reason to though, as Oricorio was going after him pretty hard. BDS was suspicious of me as well, but was eventually convinced to vote Oricorio based on his hard Xiao push. TZP was pretty inactive and only voted at the end.

TZP:

Spoiler

I'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night

Claims the other seer role.

First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?

Buys my claim. Is this an attempt by wolf!TZP to instill trust in the blue hit on Oricorio and push a lynch?

Oricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall

References the Santa claim where Oricorio got away with a red seer hit. Says Oricorio's gamestyle reflects someone with their back against the wall.

Looks like I don't really have a choice now, though? Oricorio. Xiao, what did I just say that changed your mind?

Votes Oricorio because Xiao voted for TZP. He had to do this for self-preservation, given Xiao's vote.

TLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.

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