TWG CII: Srcmalbed Eggs
Wolves:
1. Wolf Chef: During one night phase, the Wolf Chef may choose to randomly scramble the powers of the special roles for the rest of the game. It will be publicly announced at the end of the phase that the scramble has been activated. The scramble is effective immediately, meaning if a special targets a player, their target will receive the effects of the scrambled power and not the original power. The scramble may NOT cause a power belonging to a dead special to be inherited by a living special. The scramble cannot be blocked.
2. Gordon Ramsay: Has a one-use kill any phase that goes into effect at the end of that phase. Bypasses guards. Replaces a standard wolfkill if used during a night phase.
Specials:
Specials are told they are a special, but not which one.
3. Confused Seer: Every night phase, can choose one player. At the end of that phase, is told the color of that player.
4. Paranoid Guardian: Every night phase, can choose to guard one player of their choosing from being wolfed. Can guard themself.
5. Anxious Roleblocker: Every night phase, can choose to block the night action of one player of their choosing.
6. Frivolous Vigilante: Every night phase, can choose to kill one player of their choosing unless they are being guarded. Can vigi themself.
Humans:
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Anton Ego: A normal human, seer'd red. Is told they are a normal human.
Humans/specials win when all wolves are dead.
Wolves win when the number of remaining humans/specials is less than or equal to the number of remaining wolves.
Cardflips are off.
Players:
1. mikey
2. ThatHiddenCharacter
3. E. Gadd Industries
4. BrainyLucario
5. Maelstrom
6. Toby
7. BlackDragonSlayer
8. Brawler4Ever
9. FireArrow
10. Trasdegi
It is now Night 1. Night 1 will end on Friday March 23 at 10:00PM PST/Saturday March 24 at 1:00AM EST/5:00AM GMT.
Woohoo let's do this!
Also, I demand a refund, I wanted my eggs sunny side up >:/
E Gadd demanding a refund is quite wolfy imo.
Present and accounted for.
also you spelled scrambled wrong you fuck like the fuck kind of brainless turkey sandwitch does that
I'm here. Let's get those chefs!
Quote from: mikey on March 23, 2018, 01:10:12 AMi love u fa~~~~
ehehehehehe
*flies beyond the desert horizen on a dustbuster*
I'm hungry. Is there gonna be bacon with my eggs?
Is it too early for flapjacks?
Always
Hi peeps,
Ok so there are a few ways that this game could play out regarding the amount of mislynches and vigis we have that I'll list below:
1. We get 2 mislynches, 0 vigi kills,
2. We get 2 mislynches, 1 vigi kill, 1 wolfing blocked/guarded
3. We get 1 mislynch, 1 vigi kill, 0 wolfings blocked/guarded
4. We get 1 mislynch, 2 vigi kills
These scenarios assume that our vigi won't hit a wolf, so they are a bit of worst case scenarios.
Because all special roles are unknown to themselves, we have to assume that if one role makes an action then all roles will also make an action. Thus, for our safest option to have the most lynches would be option 1, but that means no specials will use their actions, which, is boring and I'm not a fan of being so safe.
Option 2 and 3 has a plan around it which would maximise our specials capabilities, but it comes with a worthy downside; if we get all of our specials to target themselves night 1, this means they'll find out what their role is, what it also means is, we lose our vigi and have killed off a human. However, this does give our seer, guardian and roleblocker the ability to use their actions freely every night, and even when scramble comes along, there won't be huge downsides to continuing to use their actions as the vigi will be out of the scramble pool.
Option 4 assumes our vigi stays alive, and our specials just use their action every night. This would mean we lose a mislynch, and when powers get scrambled someone will die who wasn't supposed to. We can counteract the accidental kill though by having our specials assume from night 2 onwards, that whoever they target, they will be ok with also being killed, which messes up the though process the guardian would have, but we would need to be safe.
Before I dive deeper into giving more of my opinions, I would like to leave this more open to a discussion so other people can chime in their thoughts first
im suspicious of all of you above me for letting any sort of plan be posted 8 hours after game start by a guy who couldnt be active beforehand
whata your excuse for not thinking of anything
This started after I went to bed and I'm in class now
I was asleep when the phase started
It was 1 am here when phase started. And I've been in school all day.
VERY VALID EXCUSES
I was thinking of flapjacks.
At work. I'll read what you said again later.
all specials should always use their abilities, preferably on someone suspicious. In fact, maybe we should have two wolves claim just so that specials can use their powers on the wolves?
Quote from: mikey on March 23, 2018, 08:44:30 AMall specials should always use their abilities, preferably on someone suspicious. In fact, maybe we should have two wolves claim just so that specials can use their powers on the wolves?
Helpful insight
Or should they? I mean, if everyone does, a vigi will go off. If we can work with that, then I'm for it.
3/4 of the abilities only help us when targetting a wolf, therefore all the specials should target someone they think is a wolf. Targetting yourself to figure out who you are is a terrible idea. We're garunteed to lose a human and that information we gain can just get scrambled away. Im almost suspicious of you for suggesting it in the first place.
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 11:06:12 AMthat information we gain can just get scrambled away
the idea though was that, after a scramble everyone else would be safe because there was no more vigi to worry about
Not wrong, but then we don't have a vigi.
Quote from: Toby on March 23, 2018, 11:32:13 AMthe idea though was that, after a scramble everyone else would be safe because there was no more vigi to worry about
a Vigi could be majorly beneficial to us. Saying that it'd be better off without one, just to identify the specials roles when the wolves could literally scramble the roles before their is even a chance to use them
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 23, 2018, 11:50:41 AMa Vigi could be majorly beneficial to us. [bYou're[/b]saying that it'd be better off without one, just to identify the specials roles when the wolves could literally scramble the roles before their is even a chance to use them
Grammatical fix
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 11:06:12 AM3/4 of the abilities only help us when targetting a wolf, therefore all the specials should target someone they think is a wolf.
yes, linking back to my option 4;
Quote from: Toby on March 23, 2018, 06:35:13 AMOption 4 ... We can counteract the accidental kill though by having our specials assume from night 2 onwards, that whoever they target, they will be ok with also being killed...
Quote from: Toby on March 23, 2018, 06:35:13 AM4. We get 1 mislynch, 2 vigi kills
This would leave us with 1 mislynch, instead of two. But all in all, the humans still get 2 lynches and potentially 2 vigis (if they aren't killed) by night 3 where either game ends with 4 players or continues on. Additionally, we would have potentially 2 seering results, 2 roleblocks being used, and 2 guards being used by the end of night 2. To make things a little clearer I'll type up what could happen with this plan.
Night 1 Start2 Wolves 8 Humans
Night 1 End2 Wolves 6 Humans
Day 1 End2 Wolves 5 Humans
Night 2 End2 Wolves 3 Humans
Day 2 End2 Wolves 2 Humans
Game Over Wolves Win.So on Night 2 start (where 2nd actions take place) we have 5 humans alive, and potentially 4 specials among this to make their second action. On Day 1 start I would suggest a special claiming to get the specials together, and help co-ordinate their next moves, as well as being able to pass the night 1 seering on. But if there are any plans for any special to claim, it would require that every special uses their action night 1 in order to determine their role.
Maelstorm did you read my long post
Quote from: Toby on March 23, 2018, 11:58:02 AMMaelstorm did you read my long post
Did you even acknowledge my post?
not really I'm tired tbh and had stuff to do that I'm not doing
The power roles should absolutely be using all their powers tonight and should target whoever theyre most suspicious of. Claiming should only happen on a lylo phase.
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 01:42:17 PMThe power roles should absolutely be using all their powers tonight and should target whoever theyre most suspicious of. Claiming should only happen on a lylo phase.
Thoughts:
Only the seer and the vigi are going to know who they are once they've used their powers. Should the guardian/roleblocker still continue to use their powers afterwards? There's a pretty good chance that, if they do keep using their powers, they could end up shooting ourselves in the foot by accidentally roleblocking a special.
All special roles will receive a response following the use of their power.
Lotsa stuff being thrown around! I'll post my thoughts later tonight; this is literally the only downtime I've had ALL DAY (I'm at this event registering for classes today and half of tomorrow for my first semester of college).
So then with toby's self-vote plan, the vigi is dead and we have 3 specials that know who they are starting Day 1. That leaves a 100% chance of hitting a special, and 0% of hitting a wolf.
The other option is, as FireArrow said, to let the specials hit whoever they want. imo this option is less risky. From the vigi's perspective, it leaves a 3/9 chance of hitting a special and 2/9 chance of hitting a wolf. yes, we may lose one of the specials, but we could also hit a wolf. I'd say that that's worth it.
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 23, 2018, 12:38:02 PMDid you even acknowledge my post?
Yes but you basically repeated FireArrow so there wasn't anything extra to comment on.
It also confused me:
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 23, 2018, 11:50:41 AMa Vigi could be majorly beneficial to us. Saying that it'd be better off without one, just to identify the specials roles when the wolves could literally scramble the roles before their is even a chance to use them
the wolves can't scramble the roles before people have a chance to use them, and it doesn't cancel them either so I don't know what you're saying here
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 01:42:17 PMThe power roles should absolutely be using all their powers tonight and should target whoever theyre most suspicious of. Claiming should only happen on a lylo phase.
Lylo is 3 v 2 though, and we could get a claim at 6 v 2 the previous day, saving us from lynching a special, and maximise the chances of catching a wolf using abilities rather than everyone targeting the same person
Quote from: Brawler4Ever on March 23, 2018, 04:07:08 PMSo then with toby's self-vote plan, the vigi is dead and we have 3 specials that know who they are starting Day 1. That leaves a 100% chance of hitting a special, and 0% of hitting a wolf.
The other option is, as FireArrow said, to let the specials hit whoever they want. imo this option is less risky. From the vigi's perspective, it leaves a 3/9 chance of hitting a special and 2/9 chance of hitting a wolf. yes, we may lose one of the specials, but we could also hit a wolf. I'd say that that's worth it.
Other option could mean vigi possibly kills two humans though, are you ok with a vigi shooting twice between night 1 and night 2?
It's a little concerning that there hasn't been more discussion on this when the phase ends in 3 hours and our specials are potentially asleep already/unable to change their night actions
Three hour warning.
Quote from: Toby on March 23, 2018, 06:07:10 PMLylo is 3 v 2 though, and we could get a claim at 6 v 2 the previous day, saving us from lynching a special, and maximise the chances of catching a wolf using abilities rather than everyone targeting the same person
Claiming = wolves use scramble and one of them dies. Then we run into the same n1 problem where we dont know who the vigi is.
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 07:15:06 PMClaiming = wolves use scramble and one of them dies. Then we run into the same n1 problem where we dont know who the vigi is.
Wolf wouldn't need to use scramble for one of them to die. And scramble is inevitable, I don't know why that raises any concerns towards claiming
If any special is unsure of what to do, it seems like the people that felt like talking have agreed that specials should use their powers on people they find suspicious and likely to be a wolf. Do not use your power on anyone you don't want to die, but you also must use your power. goodluck
this is me trying to say something intelligent for posterity like FA and toby but failing
Quote from: mikey on March 23, 2018, 07:45:33 PMthis is me trying to say something intelligent for posterity like FA and toby but failing
so we have pushed you to talk more like you claim to do as a human, but you've failed in providing anything meaningful when the topic has a bunch you could comment on, noted
TELL MY WIFE I ATE A HAM SANDWICH
that'll do
Quote from: mikey on March 23, 2018, 07:58:41 PMTELL MY WIFE I ATE A HAM SANDWICH
that'll do
you've made no completely serious posts in topic so far
Ok, unlike toby, I was originally not that suspicious of you noc but this is EXACTLY what you did last game as wah waluigi.
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 11:06:12 AM3/4 of the abilities only help us when targetting a wolf, therefore all the specials should target someone they think is a wolf. Targetting yourself to figure out who you are is a terrible idea. We're garunteed to lose a human and that information we gain can just get scrambled away. Im almost suspicious of you for suggesting it in the first place.
Before night ends I want to point out that I liked this post from Firearrow, it gave a real human insight to the post I had made, and he chose the option and 'plan' that most benefitted humans which I liked. He also considers the abilities that help/hinder humans.
yea so if you guys were stuck on what to post use firearrow as an example because his posts have been very helpful for the humans thus far when there were lots of points to add your own thoughts to
TWG CII: Slaremcbd Eggs
Wolves:
1. Wolf Chef: During one night phase, the Wolf Chef may choose to randomly scramble the powers of the special roles for the rest of the game. It will be publicly announced at the end of the phase that the scramble has been activated. The scramble is effective immediately, meaning if a special targets a player, their target will receive the effects of the scrambled power and not the original power. The scramble may NOT cause a power belonging to a dead special to be inherited by a living special. The scramble cannot be blocked.
2. Gordon Ramsay: Has a one-use kill any phase that goes into effect at the end of that phase. Bypasses guards. Replaces a standard wolfkill if used during a night phase.
Specials:
Specials are told they are a special, but not which one.
3. Confused Seer: Every night phase, can choose one player. At the end of that phase, is told the color of that player.
4. Paranoid Guardian: Every night phase, can choose to guard one player of their choosing from being wolfed. Can guard themself.
5. Anxious Roleblocker: Every night phase, can choose to block the night action of one player of their choosing.
6. Frivolous Vigilante: Every night phase, can choose to kill one player of their choosing unless they are being guarded. Can vigi themself.
Humans:
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Anton Ego: A normal human, seer'd red. Is told they are a normal human.
Humans/specials win when all wolves are dead.
Wolves win when the number of remaining humans/specials is less than or equal to the number of remaining wolves.
Cardflips are off.
Players:
1. mikey
2. ThatHiddenCharacter
3. E. Gadd Industries
4. BrainyLucario
5. Maelstrom
6. Toby
7. BlackDragonSlayer
8. Brawler4Ever
9. FireArrow
10. Trasdegi
mikey and Maelstrom died during the night! It is now Day 1. Day 1 will end on Sunday March 25 at 10:00PM PST/Monday March 26 at 1:00AM EST/5:00AM GMT.
thanks
If our seer got a green or blue result they should definitely claim to them
TELL MY WIFE I
wait, I'm not married
welp
For what its worth noc privately told me his suspicion was brainy.
Logs please?
Quote from: FireArrow on March 23, 2018, 10:46:00 PMFor what its worth noc privately told me his suspicion was brainy.
log would be tasty
Sorry for the inactivity, game started at 6am and I had school and concert band yesterday. I've read the thread and I still need to catch up with the chat.
So, if the specials targeted people who thought they were suspicious, Noc was probably vigi'd and mael wolfed. Now all specials should know their roles (up to when the scramble happens, that is.) Worst-case scenario, we lynch an human today, and the vigi kills a special tonight, which already put us in lylo tomorrow. So we should try to find 2 suspicious people today, 1 to be lynched and 1 to be vigi'd. If we only have one by the end of this phase, I would advise against a vigi n2.
NocturneOfShadow - Yesterday at 8:43 PM
don't tell this to anyone, because it's dumb
I'm suspicious of brainy for some reason
I don't remember what it was
but one of his posts in the thread is wolfy
Gerik - Yesterday at 8:44 PM
was it the one where he got mad at toby for ignoring him?
NocturneOfShadow - Yesterday at 8:44 PM
maybe
idk
you wanted to know
Gerik - Yesterday at 8:44 PM
I do
But how do you know I'm not a wolf?
Wouldn't posting it for everyone be more beneficial
Spend the time to consolidate your reasoning so it isn't "I just know"
Then make a case
Although I guess I'm here to confirm post game if brainy does end up being a wolf and you wanna say you called it
I'm roleblocker other specials please claim to me
I can't post logs from the host, but dudeman told me that I can't roleblock wolfings so uh... my role is basically useless. I'll unite ya'll then die spectacularily.
For the specials: please wait a couple hours before claiming to allow any potential counterclaim to happen.
Let's post if we are or are not roleblocker to speed the process
I'm bot
I'm not roleblocker.
Not roleblocker
Not roleblocker
Not roleblocker.
Not roleblocker.
just waiting on e gadd to confirm
I´ll ping him on discord.
salir tu monstruo
Not roleblocker
Also, I just got home. Analysis coming when I get my crap together
yayyyy blues please claim to me asap so we can get this phase on with
If you aren't blue start talking about lynch targets but don't put down any votes. I don't wanna give away a special by needing to stop a lynch.
Who did you try and Roleblock FireArrow? It obviously wasn't the vigi but it could be beneficial info for one of our specials if you roleblocked them by accident
firearrow can keep that to the specials
I think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check. That way we'll either have a confirmed human or a good lynching target. If it's blue, then just say it's blue.
I don't think firearrow should reveal any confirmed humans either though
In order to reduce confusion, here are the standard responses a special will receive at the end of the phase from using their action.
Seer:
"You seer'd [player] [color]."
Guardian:
"You chose to guard [player] from being killed during the night."
Roleblocker:
"You prevented [player] from using a night action, if they had any.
Vigi:
"You attempted to shoot and kill [player]."
If a special's power was blocked, they will receive this message:
"Your attempt to use your power was blocked."
Quote from: Toby on March 24, 2018, 02:50:10 PMI don't think firearrow should reveal any confirmed humans either though
Why is that?
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 24, 2018, 02:56:41 PMWhy is that?
I'm getting the sense that you think it's beneficial, can you say why you think that is first, before I say it's not benificial
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on March 23, 2018, 03:56:46 PMLotsa stuff being thrown around! I'll post my thoughts later tonight; this is literally the only downtime I've had ALL DAY (I'm at this event registering for classes today and half of tomorrow for my first semester of college).
I noticed you didn't post thoughts
Log with Toby
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:27 PM
What incentive do the wolves have to NOT use their scrambling power Night 2? Wouldn't that just rending all our planning obsolete?
Just thought of that while I was away in the shower.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:28 PM
nothing really unless we get a claim today
and they want to guarantee the kill on that claim so they wont scramble
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:29 PM
But wouldn't it be more worth it to complete mess up the specials' powers?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:29 PM
not if you're killing the most important
but the game wont last till night 3 unless we kill a wolf anyway, so night 2 is most beneficial for them
unless what i said happens
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
But which special would claim?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
probably if seer claimed
maybe vigi
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
I'm assuming Guardian/Roleblocker, since neither of those two would know who they were?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
they know who they are
they get a message saying 'you guarded ...'
'you blocked ...'
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
Then what incentive do the wolves have to not scramble powers?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
right now none
but we can give them one
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
If someone claims, then they can just scramble powers and kill that person anyway.
Think about it.
There will be no guard guarding that person, after all.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
yes, but if they want to guarantee a kill on the seer
then scrambling and killing the seer claim wont guarantee they killed the seer
their power will be scrambled so they might end up killing the guard or something
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
Yeah, and that's still good for the wolves.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
well it means we'd still have our seer
which is probably most dangerous for the wolves
especially with an alliance then set up after the claim
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:33 PM
Yeah, but they don't know who they are until they get their result. Meaning they have to guess again.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:33 PM
well the new seer will receive a message with 'player x is this colour'
so they'll know for night 3 who they are
why is this in private anyway
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:34 PM
Kind of because I didn't want to give info to the wolves if they hadn't already thought of it, and partly because I wanted to focus on your opinion in specific.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:35 PM
ok
fair enough
i feel like gathering everyone's opinions on it would be of best interest anyway
Parts I found suspicious in bold.
Quote from: Trasdegi on March 24, 2018, 01:29:31 AMSorry for the inactivity, game started at 6am and I had school and concert band yesterday. I've read the thread and I still need to catch up with the chat.
So, if the specials targeted people who thought they were suspicious, Noc was probably vigi'd and mael wolfed. Now all specials should know their roles (up to when the scramble happens, that is.) Worst-case scenario, we lynch an human today, and the vigi kills a special tonight, which already put us in lylo tomorrow. So we should try to find 2 suspicious people today, 1 to be lynched and 1 to be vigi'd. If we only have one by the end of this phase, I would advise against a vigi n2.
whether or not if we use our vigi n2, it will still be lylo tomorrow if we don't have a wolf killed yet, or block a kill
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:05:13 PMLog with Toby
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:27 PM
What incentive do the wolves have to NOT use their scrambling power Night 2? Wouldn't that just rending all our planning obsolete?
Just thought of that while I was away in the shower.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:28 PM
nothing really unless we get a claim today
and they want to guarantee the kill on that claim so they wont scramble
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:29 PM
But wouldn't it be more worth it to complete mess up the specials' powers?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:29 PM
not if you're killing the most important
but the game wont last till night 3 unless we kill a wolf anyway, so night 2 is most beneficial for them
unless what i said happens
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
But which special would claim?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
probably if seer claimed
maybe vigi
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
I'm assuming Guardian/Roleblocker, since neither of those two would know who they were?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
they know who they are
they get a message saying 'you guarded ...'
'you blocked ...'
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
Then what incentive do the wolves have to not scramble powers?
Toby - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
right now none
but we can give them one
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:31 PM
If someone claims, then they can just scramble powers and kill that person anyway.
Think about it.
There will be no guard guarding that person, after all.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
yes, but if they want to guarantee a kill on the seer
then scrambling and killing the seer claim wont guarantee they killed the seer
their power will be scrambled so they might end up killing the guard or something
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
Yeah, and that's still good for the wolves.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:32 PM
well it means we'd still have our seer
which is probably most dangerous for the wolves
especially with an alliance then set up after the claim
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:33 PM
Yeah, but they don't know who they are until they get their result. Meaning they have to guess again.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:33 PM
well the new seer will receive a message with 'player x is this colour'
so they'll know for night 3 who they are
why is this in private anyway
Golden Silver - Yesterday at 10:34 PM
Kind of because I didn't want to give info to the wolves if they hadn't already thought of it, and partly because I wanted to focus on your opinion in specific.
Toby - Yesterday at 10:35 PM
ok
fair enough
i feel like gathering everyone's opinions on it would be of best interest anyway
Parts I found suspicious in bold.
can you explain why its suspicious
1: Strange insistence that seer would be the one to claim (despite knowing that the roleblocker knew who they were).
2: Seeing no benefit for the wolves to simply scramble powers regardless (when they have little to no incentive not to).
3: Asking why I didn't mention this to the public (to not provide information to the wolves; one possible theory is that Toby wanted it to be public so he could act on the information without seeming like he got the plan from me).
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:12:24 PM1: Strange insistence that seer would be the one to claim (despite knowing that the roleblocker knew who they were).
QuoteToby - Yesterday at 10:30 PM
probably if seer claimed
maybe vigi
I mean i suggested it might also be the vigi in the scenario you gave. I then stuck with saying seer to avoid hassle. I said that the only incentive for them not to scramble would be if they wanted to guarantee a kill on our best special, and imo those are our best.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:12:24 PM2: Seeing no benefit for the wolves to simply scramble powers regardless (when they have little to no incentive not to).
In the situation I gave, where wolves could guarantee a kill on our best special, i think is a big incentive not to
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:12:24 PM3: Asking why I didn't mention this to the public (to not provide information to the wolves; one possible theory is that Toby wanted it to be public so he could act on the information without seeming like he got the plan from me).
i found it odd that such a topic wasn't in public. I felt like you were wanting to gain my trust, forgive me for not being a wolf and being happy to accept it. I don't even know what your plan is, or what point you're trying to make here, but I think the fact I responded quickly to you suggests I was already aware of the information you were discussing.
Quote from: Toby on March 24, 2018, 03:22:24 PMI mean i suggested it might also be the vigi in the scenario you gave. I then stuck with saying seer to avoid hassle. I said that the only incentive for them not to scramble would be if they wanted to guarantee a kill on our best special, and imo those are our best.
Maybe it's just a different of opinion, but I was confused how you didn't see the benefit of scrambling regardless of that. I don't think it matters which special the wolves hit (unless the wolves hit the roleblocker) as long as they're successful.
Quotei found it odd that such a topic wasn't in public. I felt like you were wanting to gain my trust, forgive me for not being a wolf and being happy to accept it. I don't even know what your plan is, or what point you're trying to make here, but I think the fact I responded quickly to you suggests I was already aware of the information you were discussing.
Why? You didn't think it was valid to not want to give information to the wolves that they potentially might not have thought of otherwise? If they hadn't already come to that conclusion themselves, I didn't want to be the one to give them that idea, because it would be harmful to us, obviously.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:33:10 PMWhy? You didn't think it was valid to not want to give information to the wolves that they potentially might not have thought of otherwise? If they hadn't already come to that conclusion themselves, I didn't want to be the one to give them that idea, because it would be harmful to us, obviously.
I didn't think it was something they wouldn't have thought of
Quote from: Toby on March 24, 2018, 03:38:04 PMI didn't think it was something they wouldn't have thought of
I think it's kind of silly (and potentially harmful as well) to think that rather than err on the side of caution.
Quote from: Trasdegi on March 24, 2018, 02:46:08 PMI think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check. That way we'll either have a confirmed human or a good lynching target. If it's blue, then just say it's blue.
Also, slightly unrelated: We all saw the suspicious post from Brainy, but did anyone pick up on this post from Tras? "I think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check." What?
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:48:16 PMI think it's kind of silly (and potentially harmful as well) to think that rather than err on the side of caution.
ill agree to disagree on that
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 03:59:37 PMAlso, slightly unrelated: We all saw the suspicious post from Brainy, but did anyone pick up on this post from Tras? "I think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check." What?
he's asking for the seer claim to be revealed, which I think is a bad idea.
I don't get why you're not offering your own thoughts on it first though
i did though
i said it was suspicious
I got all the special claims so we can move on with the phase.
Toby is our red check.
9/10 (chance of miller survivng vigi shot) * 7/8 (chance of miller surviving wolfing) * 1/3 (chance that being red means you start the game as miller) = ~23% chance of being a miller, or a 77% chance toby is a wolf.
This is our highest percent lynch today, assuming nothing weird like a dead seer and a lucky wolf claim.
:O
sry bb
Don't insta me, let the phase play out. I'm the miller I guess, but I doubt you guys will be convinced to keep me alive since, with the lack of discussing going on everywhere, you'd rather rely on hard fact than making reads and promoting your own thoughts, which I guess if that's your play style then hey ho.
I would like to still use the phase to continue to post my ideas and thoughts on the game though so let's get talking
Discussion is a good idea, although I dont persoanlly have anything to add.
Quote from: FireArrow on March 24, 2018, 05:12:31 PMI got all the special claims so we can move on with the phase.
Toby is our red check.
:OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
C-c-c-called it!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 05:58:13 PM:OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
C-c-c-called it!
i mean you haven't
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 04:32:33 PMi did though
i said it was suspicious
and you should say why it's suspicious
because it was obvious/in-line with what had already been said about brainy's post
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 06:15:04 PMbecause it was obvious/in-line with what had already been said about brainy's post
see thats what you should say when you bring up a point, because no one is coming to the conclusion that's your thought when you bring it up
Because they seemingly ignored it in favor of Brainy's post.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 24, 2018, 06:47:42 PMBecause they seemingly ignored it in favor of Brainy's post.
What post of mine are we talking about? The one where I got frustrated for Toby ignoring me?
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 24, 2018, 01:53:28 PMWho did you try and Roleblock FireArrow? It obviously wasn't the vigi but it could be beneficial info for one of our specials if you roleblocked them by accident
curse of the first post of the page
Oh that. Thanks for clarifying
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 24, 2018, 08:29:39 PMWhat post of mine are we talking about? The one where I got frustrated for Toby ignoring me?
I'm sorry you got frustrated
Quote from: Toby on March 24, 2018, 08:43:10 PMI'm sorry you got frustrated
Ah it's fine. Don't worry about it
Alrighty, let's get down to business. Sorry for my relative inactivity, it won't be like that again (since I've finished registration & etc.)
So I'm going to do a player analysis, given there's been a reasonable amount of activity from everyone (except for THC & Brawler). I'll be splitting this into suspicion tiers.
Please note that I'm only addressing posts made in this thread since keeping up with the Discord is more difficult if you don't check it and end up missing 1100+ messages in one period of time.
Human Reads
-FireArrow
Literally everyone alive didn't counter your blocker claim, so the only way you aren't human is if you're a wolf that's extremely lucky or extremely skilled.
-BDS
You've contributed much to the conversations, as have FA & Toby both, and you seem to be hunting wolves very diligently, calling various posts out as suspicious (even going so far as to draw attention to Tras's post that people didn't seem to notice).
On the fence
-Trasdegi
I'm not quite sure, but this seems like the most active game you've played that I've been in with you, which gives you human points in my eyes (given you've tended to the side of inactivity when you've played as a wolf in previous games). That said, your posts are rather general, stating more obvious (albeit helpful) things, such as
Quote from: Trasdegi on March 24, 2018, 04:12:03 AMFor the specials: please wait a couple hours before claiming to allow any potential counterclaim to happen.
Then there's the post you made more recently:
Quote from: Trasdegi on March 24, 2018, 02:46:08 PMI think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check. That way we'll either have a confirmed human or a good lynching target. If it's blue, then just say it's blue.
This post is getting some resistance from BDS and more indirect disagreement from Toby. I can see the merits in both sides of the arguments here, although I believe it'd only be most necessary to mention a red check posted with telling evidence, if at all possible.
Somewhere between neutral & suspicious
-Toby
So I'm going to be outright with you, this one's a hard situation. Yes, you were a red check, which instantly makes you seem suspicious, but I personally don't think you've been the most suspicious player so far. That said, I'm not used to your playstyle, and so it's been tough for me trying to determine what's playstyle and what're possible tells. I haven't quite understood your reasoning behind certain things you've suggested/said/done, but most of that has been addressed by other players, so I don't see much of a point in bringing it back up just for you to have to readdress the comment. Or not. Which brings me to my next point.
Most likely a wolf
-BrainyLucario
You've done some pretty weird stuff this game, and it's tough trying to separate your posts because you're just as much of a wild card at times as mikey. I particularly find it interesting that you got offended for some reason by Toby's ignoring your post, and your desire to know who FA blocked (especially publicly?). But that said, both points have also been addressed by others, so there isn't much else to say here.
Please post more
-ThatHiddenCharacter
Unless I missed something somewhere, nothing meaningful has been posted, and only one thing has been said from you (although I don't guess I have all that much room to talk). Please post more.
-Brawler4Ever
You had the one post earlier in the game in which you advocated for following the plan where the specials didn't target themselves, but whomever they found suspicious, breaking it down mathematically and the like. This gives you a slight human lean to me, but seeing as that's the only thing you've said seriously, I don't have all that much to go on.
QuoteI haven't quite understood your reasoning behind certain things you've suggested/said/done, but most of that has been addressed by other players,
I felt my reasoning for things has usually been very clear, but I guess I've been wrong. If there are any extra points you want me to explain please don't hesitate to bring them up.
E. Gadd, your reasoning for suspecting me as a wolf is pitiful. My getting frustrated for being ignored is in no way a teller in if I'm a wolf or not, as a human player would also probably get annoyed if he was ignored. As for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth. All your points against me are just restatements of what other people have pointed out as slightly suspicious, yet I'm on your most likely a wolf list when there are clearly better wolves. Say the guy who got red checked? Explain that
Not revealing means that he could potentially catch a wolf.
me: "I saw that xxx player is green."
FA: "How? I roleblocked you."
me: "..."
FA publicly announcing his roleblock removes that opportunity.
Quote from: Brawler4Ever on March 25, 2018, 09:50:11 AMNot revealing means that he could potentially catch a wolf.
me: "I saw that xxx player is green."
FA: "How? I roleblocked you."
me: "..."
FA publicly announcing his roleblock removes that opportunity.
That is a good point
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 25, 2018, 09:33:17 AME. Gadd, your reasoning for suspecting me as a wolf is pitiful. My getting frustrated for being ignored is in no way a teller in if I'm a wolf or not, as a human player would also probably get annoyed if he was ignored.
U wot. If someone ignored me, as has been done in previous games, I wouldn't get frustrated, but rather get kinda suspicious. If anyone wants to lend their opinion to this, go ahead. If anything, I see this as Toby trying to distance himself from you as wolf partner and you not taking a hint or some other weird reason. It's almost like what happened last game between Samus & Waluigi, with Waluigi not responding to ANYTHING Samus said.
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 25, 2018, 09:33:17 AMAs for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth.
I can respect this reasoning, but it is a bit nearsighted.
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 25, 2018, 09:33:17 AMAll your points against me are just restatements of what other people have pointed out as slightly suspicious, yet I'm on your most likely a wolf list when there are clearly better wolves. Say the guy who got red checked? Explain that
*ahem* read the last sentence of my post concerning you. If anything,
you're restating that part of
my argument. And those last two sentences make no sense, so I can't explain that. Could you explain that?
Quote from: Toby on March 25, 2018, 09:09:54 AMI felt my reasoning for things has usually been very clear, but I guess I've been wrong. If there are any extra points you want me to explain please don't hesitate to bring them up.
I'll read through the thread again for specifics at some point. Today promises to be rather busy.
Ninja'd
...yeah. Hence the shortsightedness.
Oh yeah, you did mention that they've been restated. Still, it seems like your relying on others more than your own suspicion.
Despite this, the best lynch today imo is Toby, even If he could possibly be the Miller, a red check is a red check in this game and should almost never be left to chance when we have few mislynches
I was thinking: we have a 20% chance that the wolves (or the vigi) killed the roleblocker n1, and thus a 20% chance of firearrow being a wolf and knowing all the specials, and so we've a 20% chance of (almost certainly) loosing. But we can't do anything about that.
With the 20% chance of FA being a lucky wolf + the ~23% chance of Toby being the Miller + the fact that Toby played very humanly and contributed a lot and often, well... That (weak) red check is still a red check.
Now, the arguing between E.Gadd and Brainy is interesting. This seems suspicious:
Quote from: BrainyLucario on March 25, 2018, 09:33:17 AMAs for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth.
Besides FA, there's max. 3 specials, 2 humans and 2 wolves. The humans and wolves (4/7) wouldn't know they were roleblocked so they couldn't use this to help confirm him. I don't think the odds of a roleblock claim being useful are high enough for it to happen.
Fair point. That being said, I'm going to place my vote on Toby today. I'm praying he's a wolf but unless the wolves got the Seer night 1 there is a good chance that he's a wolf or the miller
Well, before I go to bed, I'm going to place a safety on Trasdegi. I just feel like too much things can go wrong with a Toby lynch (he seems human, can be the Miller, the seer may be dead and claimed by the wolves, same thing for the roleblocker...). And no one really sticks out as a wolf.
Toby (or not Toby? That is the question). I think Tras or Brainy should die next.
I'm comfortable with a Toby lynch. That makes 4 votes and it takes 5 for insta, so we don't need any more votes.
Quote from: Trasdegi on March 25, 2018, 04:52:12 PMWell, before I go to bed, I'm going to place a safety on Trasdegi. I just feel like too much things can go wrong with a Toby lynch (he seems human, can be the Miller, the seer may be dead and claimed by the wolves, same thing for the roleblocker...). And no one really sticks out as a wolf.
Can people on NSM stop doing this. Safety voting is not a cop out for not wanting to take risks.
1. You think voting for someone this phase is too risly.
2. If voting for someone this phase is too risky for you, then by extension it's too risky for everyone.
3. Therefore no one should vote?
Almost every lynch has a possibility of being mislynch, and thats OK. Go with your gut or what you think the highest % option is. If no one took risks wolves would win 100% of the time.
sorry for edit, I changed
Quote1. You think voting for someoen this phase is too ris
to->
Quote1. You think voting for someone this phase is too risly.
so i failed in the end anyways
goodluck
Vote count:
- Toby: 4 (FireArrow, BrainyLucario, BlackDragonSlayer, Brawler4Ever)
- Trasdegi: 1 (Trasdegi)
TWG CII: Sblarcemd Eggs
Wolves:
1. Wolf Chef: During one night phase, the Wolf Chef may choose to randomly scramble the powers of the special roles for the rest of the game. It will be publicly announced at the end of the phase that the scramble has been activated. The scramble is effective immediately, meaning if a special targets a player, their target will receive the effects of the scrambled power and not the original power. The scramble may NOT cause a power belonging to a dead special to be inherited by a living special. The scramble cannot be blocked.
2. Gordon Ramsay: Has a one-use kill any phase that goes into effect at the end of that phase. Bypasses guards. Replaces a standard wolfkill if used during a night phase.
Specials:
Specials are told they are a special, but not which one.
3. Confused Seer: Every night phase, can choose one player. At the end of that phase, is told the color of that player.
4. Paranoid Guardian: Every night phase, can choose to guard one player of their choosing from being wolfed. Can guard themself.
5. Anxious Roleblocker: Every night phase, can choose to block the night action of one player of their choosing.
6. Frivolous Vigilante: Every night phase, can choose to kill one player of their choosing unless they are being guarded. Can vigi themself.
Humans:
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Anton Ego: A normal human, seer'd red. Is told they are a normal human.
Humans/specials win when all wolves are dead.
Wolves win when the number of remaining humans/specials is less than or equal to the number of remaining wolves.
Cardflips are off.
Players:
1. mikey
2. ThatHiddenCharacter
3. E. Gadd Industries
4. BrainyLucario
5. Maelstrom
6. Toby
7. BlackDragonSlayer
8. Brawler4Ever
9. FireArrow
10. Trasdegi
Toby was lynched! It is now Night 2. Night 2 will end on Monday March 26 at 10:00PM PST/Tuesday March 27 at 1:00AM EST/5:00AM GMT.
Posting so that this night won't be completely quiet.
TWG CII: Scrambled Nos
Wolves:
1. Wolf Chef: During one night phase, the Wolf Chef may choose to randomly scramble the powers of the special roles for the rest of the game. It will be publicly announced at the end of the phase that the scramble has been activated. The scramble is effective immediately, meaning if a special targets a player, their target will receive the effects of the scrambled power and not the original power. The scramble may NOT cause a power belonging to a dead special to be inherited by a living special. The scramble cannot be blocked.
2. Gordon Ramsay: Has a one-use kill any phase that goes into effect at the end of that phase. Bypasses guards. Replaces a standard wolfkill if used during a night phase.
Specials:
Specials are told they are a special, but not which one.
3. Confused Seer: Every night phase, can choose one player. At the end of that phase, is told the color of that player.
4. Paranoid Guardian: Every night phase, can choose to guard one player of their choosing from being wolfed. Can guard themself.
5. Anxious Roleblocker: Every night phase, can choose to block the night action of one player of their choosing.
6. Frivolous Vigilante: Every night phase, can choose to kill one player of their choosing unless they are being guarded. Can vigi themself.
Humans:
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Anton Ego: A normal human, seer'd red. Is told they are a normal human.
Humans/specials win when all wolves are dead.
Wolves win when the number of remaining humans/specials is less than or equal to the number of remaining wolves.
Cardflips are off.
Players:
1. mikey
2. ThatHiddenCharacter
3. E. Gadd Industries
4. BrainyLucario
5. Maelstrom
6. Toby
7. BlackDragonSlayer
8. Brawler4Ever
9. FireArrow
10. Trasdegi
BlackDragonSlayer died during the night! It is now Day 2. Day 2 will end on Wednesday March 28 at 10:00PM PST/Thursday March 29 at 1:00AM EST/5:00AM GMT.
So there were two guardian claims,
Brainy being one. The other returned blue therefore brainy is a confirmed wolf. Gj noc.
QuoteE. Gadd Industries - Today at 4:33 AM
Sooo [òther guardian] returned blue. I'm going to try & take a step back to figure out why I didn't die.
E. Gadd Industries - Today at 6:56 AM
Here's what's up currently: I told Brainy irl that I seer'd [other guardian] red because I knew that if I told the truth, or didn't say anything at all, he would never shut up, and I'm not having that at school.
I do think there is something with Brainy trying to find the vigi, because that's the only logical explanation I could think of.
E. Gadd Industries - Today at 10:25 AM
@Dudeman any tips on how to summon the wild FA?
Dudeman - Today at 10:27 AM
[strong shrugging motions]
Gerik - Today at 11:59 AM
I am her3ee
Brainy is red
Gerik - Today at 12:00 PM
Doesnt really matter why
It made more sense since Toby was trying to distance himself from him
And brainy's whole not claiming at first
We'll just take him not killing you as a gift ty brainy :p
E. Gadd Industries - Today at 12:08 PM
Yeah, I'm interested in knowing why he didn't kill me, I'll ask him after the game's over. :thonk: maybe it was a bad play?
Gerik - Today at 12:10 PM
Probably tried to kill vigi
Only explanation
E. Gadd Industries - Today at 12:11 PM
Yeah, that's what I was thinking for it as well
Gerik - Today at 12:13 PM
Since wolves would already know you´re seer
there´s no harm in telling the thread too
so imma just post this log as is
NEW MESSAGES
E. Gadd Industries - Today at 12:13 PM
Yeh, works for me
E gadd made the mistake of claiming seer to brainy, so uh, yeah. If E gadd died tonight I would of pushed for a brainy lynch anyways, so maybe he knew that and decided to test his luck? Doesn''t make too much sense but seer results don't lie when specials can't be millers. Also 90% sure Toby was a wolf so this should be gg.
I'm not red. I'M NOT RED
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD I'M THE GAURDIAN
OTHER BLUE IF YOU REALLY ARE BLUE PLEASE TAKE BACK YOUR GUARDIAN CLAIM
Wow, I missed a lot. Well, given this new information, Brainy is obviously a great lynch for today. If Toby was a wolf, we win. If Toby was miller, then I think Tras is probably a good next lynch target. His posts have been very unhelpful and contradicting logical actions to take. If game doesn't end, I'll come back with more thoughts then.
Well, that was a fun game. You guys are dimma-done for. BrainyLucario
We follow the seer. brainy
INSTA!!!TWG CII: Scrambled NosWolves:1. Wolf Chef: During one night phase, the Wolf Chef may choose to randomly scramble the powers of the special roles for the rest of the game. It will be publicly announced at the end of the phase that the scramble has been activated. The scramble is effective immediately, meaning if a special targets a player, their target will receive the effects of the scrambled power and not the original power. The scramble may NOT cause a power belonging to a dead special to be inherited by a living special. The scramble cannot be blocked.
2. Gordon Ramsay: Has a one-use kill any phase that goes into effect at the end of that phase. Bypasses guards. Replaces a standard wolfkill if used during a night phase.
Specials:Specials are told they are a special, but not which one.
3. Confused Seer: Every night phase, can choose one player. At the end of that phase, is told the color of that player.
4. Paranoid Guardian: Every night phase, can choose to guard one player of their choosing from being wolfed. Can guard themself.
5. Anxious Roleblocker: Every night phase, can choose to block the night action of one player of their choosing.
6. Frivolous Vigilante: Every night phase, can choose to kill one player of their choosing unless they are being guarded. Can vigi themself.
Humans:7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Anton Ego: A normal human, seer'd red. Is told they are a normal human.
Humans/specials win when all wolves are dead.
Wolves win when the number of remaining humans/specials is less than or equal to the number of remaining wolves.
Cardflips are off.
Players:1. mikey2. ThatHiddenCharacter
3. E. Gadd Industries
4. BrainyLucario5. Maelstrom6. Toby7. BlackDragonSlayer8. Brawler4Ever
9. FireArrow
10. Trasdegi
BrainyLucario was lynched!Additionally...
(https://i.imgur.com/HKVHuPQ.jpg)
FireArrow was killed via gratuitous lamb sauce!
We are your specials now!
I told you nincompoops
so whenns the next gaem