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Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 04, 2015, 02:32:53 PMI claim Psychic

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 04, 2015, 03:20:07 PMIt works, but I can't remember if the channel is #TWGNSM or #NSMTWG
I remember it was changed because some weird people were hanging out in it, but I can't which one it was changed to.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 04, 2015, 03:29:37 PMJust so all of u know, the Psychic and Collector are not told that they have those roles, so nocturne is just making a joke

Quote from: fank009 on July 04, 2015, 03:33:07 PMdoes it matter? Pick one, stick with it.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 04, 2015, 06:34:28 PMSlow screwed up I'm a psychic

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 04, 2015, 06:34:28 PMSlow screwed up I'm a psychic

Quote from: fank009 on July 04, 2015, 07:38:24 PMAt this stage I think noct deserves to be vigged.

nothing else I feel that needs to be discussed at this time

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 04, 2015, 02:30:24 PMthe similarly powerful Xerosic will be able to use force to prevent one player from using their power every night phase.
Team Flare's prototype of the Ultimate Weapon allows them to have a "Piercing" power that will cause a person to die even if the Guardian has protected them, though this will only be effective once.
Blue powers, however, will not be able to be used until Night 2, as these Trainers aren't aware of any suspicious occurrences until the first murder incident.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 04, 2015, 07:55:37 PMCan't. He's the vigi too. :/

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 05, 2015, 02:21:34 PMAll three fools found. Game over.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:21:11 PMWell, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 05, 2015, 06:42:43 PMBesides, do we really want inactive players in the late game? :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:46:34 PMIf we don't have anybody else to lynch, that might be our best option.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:25:52 PMcan't tell if serious

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 05, 2015, 07:44:50 PMFank realized no one would get vigi'd N1, right?

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 05, 2015, 07:53:01 PMThat's why I thought he was joking. It was in the spirit of NoS being Psychic, Wolf, and Fool, all at the same time.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:21:11 PMWell, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 05, 2015, 07:44:50 PMFank realized no one would get vigi'd N1, right?

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 05, 2015, 09:15:16 PMI'm waiting for the inactives to make posts.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 05, 2015, 09:33:35 PMbtw, Chat Room (https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?channel=%23TWG&server=irc.nfnet.org), guys. Please use it. :)

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 10:12:11 PMHow about you, HMMMMM!?? You're not there right now! :P

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 05, 2015, 09:15:16 PMMashi can wait

Quote from: Latios212 on July 06, 2015, 12:50:47 PMIs it announced when the piercing power is used?

Quote from: Latios212 on July 06, 2015, 12:50:47 PMbut yeah I agree that with all the blocking the guardian probably won't be able to do much :/
I do see value in an alliance between the seer and vigi though, mostly to prevent them from targeting each other.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:21:11 PMWell, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 05, 2015, 06:42:43 PMI was under the impression that fank was joking about Nocturne. Or he was a wolf-monger. It was too soon to tell.

I, personally, believe that a strong tactic for the wolves is to remain inactive throughout the game, remaining out of the spotlight. With that in mind, I vote that we lynch either Bubbles, davy, Jub3r7, or Toby. It's Day 1. On what else can we base our accusation?

For the four of you, I suggest that you speak now or forever hold your peace. :)

Besides, do we really want inactive players in the late game? :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:46:34 PMNo, we do not (it's very easy as a wolf to take advantage of people who don't vote to push a lynch that would otherwise not go through were more active players). If we don't have anybody else to lynch, that might be our best option.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 08:09:53 PMHe probably wanted Nocturne vigi'd Night 2, then.

Quote from: FireArrow on July 06, 2015, 03:06:06 AMI'd prefer a BDS lynch as of right now, he makes a great day 1 lynch because:
-Wolfy behavior

Quote-He generally acts extremely wolfy and always ends up getting lynched mid/late game, so if he is a human mislynching him now than inevitably doing so at a more critical time.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 03:10:07 PMMashi acting like bird ftw

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 03:10:07 PMOh look they agree on a bad tactic

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 03:10:07 PMBrawler even says nothing about BDS is suspicious:
   Brawler4Ever   i personally don't see anything
   Brawler4Ever   lol
(from mashi/brawler chat log numero uno)

Quote from: davy on July 06, 2015, 03:05:00 PMI strongly disagree with you Mashi, and I would make a post discussing all off the points you made in your last post, but it's very late here so I am not capable of making such a post at this time.

I suggest the guardian decides for him/herself if he/she wants to claim or not. If we want to set up an alliance, we should try to do that fast.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 06, 2015, 04:09:48 PMWhy is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?

Quote from: Dudeman on July 06, 2015, 08:28:10 PMI dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 06, 2015, 08:28:10 PMI dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 06, 2015, 04:09:48 PMWhy is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?
Bubbles came to the same conclusion later; wolfing fank would increase the chance of people leaning toward lynching you, Nocturne. They would see fank's wolfing as a preemptive strike to stop them from focusing on you, thus allowing you (the wolf, presumably) to get out of the spotlight.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 04, 2015, 03:03:09 PMHey guys, what's the link for the IRC?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 05, 2015, 06:21:11 PMWell, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

Quote from: davy on July 06, 2015, 09:53:06 AMHey look guys, I'm not completely inactive this game!

Currently chatting with Brawler, chatlog will follow soon.

Anyway, I've just noticed this part of jub's post:

This implies he is thinking of lynching Mashi. Jub, I'd like to hear your reasoning for wanting to lynch Mashi.

Quote from: davy on July 06, 2015, 10:18:23 AMSo, Alliance strategy. The guardian should claim so that the Seer and the Vigi can claim to him. The guardian will most likely get wolf'd the next night phase, but with all the wolf powers that would block him anyway, I'd say that isn't too much of a big deal. The seer and the vigi will form an alliance without claiming to the topic. This ensures they won't hit the same target the same night phase. Also, if the seer gets a red result that player doesn't have to reveal himself to the topic, because the vigi can just take that player out the next night phase.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 06, 2015, 08:28:10 PMI dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

Quote from: FireArrow on July 06, 2015, 03:06:06 AMRight now my biggest suspicion is BDS. His analysis of the wolfing seems more like something a wolf would say to look like a human then something a human would say to genuinely make insight. Mashi is a close second because his behavior mimics that of a game I played as his wolf partner over at LLF (aggressive start to day 1 then mellows out into discussion about activity.)

I'd prefer a BDS lynch as of right now, he makes a great day 1 lynch because:
-Wolfy behavior
-He generally acts extremely wolfy and always ends up getting lynched mid/late game, so if he is a human mislynching him now than inevitably doing so at a more critical time.

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMAn alliance is unnecessary and wouldn't amount to much.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 06, 2015, 09:01:50 PMI'm not feeling an alliance, because honestly what's the point?

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMFirstly, because this isn't an alliance game.

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMSecondly, because even if we had a Role like the Guardian claim, any of the Wolves could counterclaim (e.g. Seer, for example) and force us to lose both a Guardian and a Seer.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 06, 2015, 09:01:50 PMIt'd be too difficult to set up with counterclaims and wolf painters/shamans,

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMThirdly, alliances kill activity, so I would rather just not force one to happen in a game obviously designed to prevent them from forming easily.

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMIn this type of game, claims should be trusted based on whether you trust the Player, anyway.  Since there's no cardflip and it's difficult to establish an alliance, we won't know if a Special Role has been killed yet and therefore can't make accurate judgement for claims lacking a false claim.

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMThe Seer should try to look Human and have strong reads (and should especially push Red seerings).

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMGuardian should try to block a wolfing and confirm a Human (at that point, we can try to start an alliance).

Quote from: Bubbles on July 06, 2015, 09:01:50 PMand a two person alliance with the sacrifice of the guardian just doesn't seem worth it to me.

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 02:18:46 PMVigi, we can either have act independently or have vigis made by public vote, if we vigi at all that is.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 06, 2015, 09:01:50 PMThe vigi shouldn't be taking risky enough shots to hit the seer anyway.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 09:27:17 PMSo much if wrong with brawlers defense, I'll stop at the library tomorrow so that I can participate better

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 05, 2015, 08:30:03 PM brawler seems like a good vote to me so far, sorry if I'm rushing things cause I'm on mobile

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 05, 2015, 09:31:15 PMNocturne, just out of curiosity, what makes me a good vote?

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 09:27:17 PMSo much if wrong with brawlers defense, I'll stop at the library tomorrow so that I can participate better

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 06, 2015, 04:09:48 PMWhy is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?
First of all, the "lol" was in reference to Mashi's comment, "I asked you first!!!" I feel that that could very well be taken out of context. I honestly don't know why you included that here.
Second, he was asking me my opinion on BDS. At the time, I saw nothing wrong with his comment. Bubbles came to the same conclusion later; wolfing fank would increase the chance of people leaning toward lynching you, Nocturne. They would see fank's wolfing as a preemptive strike to stop them from focusing on you, thus allowing you (the wolf, presumably) to get out of the spotlight. Or, if you're not a wolf, we would make you a scapegoat and call for your lynching because fank knew "something" about you that led to his suspicions.
The thing that I have against this whole scenerio is that we have no idea why fank wanted you vigi'ed, Nocturne. I believe, as I've stated before, that it was a joke, like you being Psychic. What information could he possibly have on you that would cause him to sincerely believe that you were a wolf?

I stick with what I said before. I see nothing wrong with BDS's comment. It was worded weirdly, but it was not, in my opinion, a huge concern.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 06, 2015, 05:47:15 PMNocturneOfShadows, I believe that you are a wolf.

fank was wolfed after accusing you. I believe this to be a very weak premise on which to base an accusation, so I'm not going to. It's everything after that with which I have a problem.

First, you accused me of being a wolf without reason. It was just "a good vote". I asked you, then, why? You blatantly ignored me. You gave no reason for me being a wolf until Mashi posted the chat log.

Then, you made your case; I was in league with BDS. BDS was trying to push blame on you so that you could wrongfully be lynched, and the wolves gain a greater lead. You're in opposition to this (not being a wolf, of course) but since I am a "partner" with BDS, you finally have a reason for your initial suspicion. You misquoted me so that I would look like I was laughing away any concern about BDS. You insisted that the idea of lynching inactives was "a bad tactic," but never explained why. It was just important to you that there was another connection between myself and BDS.

The problem with this is that you are twisting facts to suit theories, not creating theories to suit facts. In your mind, I am a wolf, and the reasons behind this suspicion can come later. This is manipulative. This is something a wolf would do.

So, Nocturne, I believe that you are a wolf.

Another chat log

17:10      *** Brawler4Ever joined #TWG
17:10   Brawler4Ever   hey
17:11   Mashi   hello
17:11   Brawler4Ever   what dose "Mashi acting like bird ftw" mean?
17:11   Brawler4Ever   does*
17:12   Mashi   Bird is one of our TWC Players.
17:12   Mashi   And probably the best Player on NSM.
17:12   Brawler4Ever   he doesn't like alliances or something? I'm not familiar with him
17:15   Mashi   I think NocturneOfShadow was just referring to my analysis, but idk
17:15   Brawler4Ever   im going to be completely honest, I think nocturne is a wolf
17:17   Mashi   Why's that?
17:17   Brawler4Ever   several reasons
17:17   Brawler4Ever   first, he accused me without any reason
17:18   Brawler4Ever   not a big deal
17:18   Brawler4Ever   but then I asked him why
17:18   Brawler4Ever   no reply
17:18   Brawler4Ever   then you posted the chat log, and he made his case
17:18   Brawler4Ever   apparently I'm in league with BDS, according to him
17:19   Brawler4Ever   his argument against me was very manipulative, imo
17:19   Mashi   Hmm.
17:19   Mashi   You should pressure him in the topic!
17:19   Brawler4Ever   i did
17:20   Brawler4Ever   it's right above your latest post
17:20   Mashi   That felt to me more that you were defending yourself than anything.
17:20   Brawler4Ever   ah
17:20   Mashi   NocturneOfShadow probably doesn't feel threatened of being lynched or of gaining suspicion based on your remark.
17:20   Brawler4Ever   you meant post what i just said in the topic
17:20   Mashi   Yup!
17:21   Brawler4Ever   i've been planning to
17:21   Brawler4Ever   just organizing my thoughts
17:22   Brawler4Ever   i'll do it sometime tonight

[close]

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 07, 2015, 02:37:50 PMStill waiting for this problem with my defense. Just a friendly reminder that Day 1 ends in about 4 hours.

Votes for lynching:
Brawler4Ever: 3 (Nocturne, Olimar, and Dudeman)
Nocturne: 3 (Brawler4Ever, BDS, Jub)
Dudeman: 1 (Mashi)
Latios: 1 (FireArrow)
FireArrow: 1 (BDS)
Toby: 1 (Dude)

I believe this to be accurate. However, it's about 5 pages of text to go through, and several people have changed their votes.  :P

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:40:44 PM1.  Accused of being a wolf without reason: false!  I had reasons!  I explained them!

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:40:44 PM2.  "You blatantly ignored me"- No.  I can't make posts like this on a phone.  It has nothing to do with ignoring you.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:40:44 PM3.  I'm not saying you're partners with BDS, I'm saying one of you two being a wolf makes the other more likely to be a wolfinstead of less likely.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 03:10:07 PMBDS is actually a pretty good day 1 hit considering 2 things he said jump out as suspicious.  Plus, with the chat logs, it doesn't seem much of a stretch for them to be partners.
Oh look they agree on a bad tacticBrawler even says nothing about BDS is suspicious:

   Brawler4Ever   i personally don't see anything
   Brawler4Ever   lol
(from mashi/brawler chat log numero uno)

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:40:44 PM4.  "You misquoted me" No, misquoting implies I altered what you said.  I did not.  To be honest you're overthinking this part.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:40:44 PMbonus- These extreme overreactions of yours aren't good for your street cred, if you know what I mean.  Although the fact that Olimar agrees with me makes me a little nervous
EDIT:
lol impatient wolfDude, you are seriously going crazy.  If this sort of thing doesn't tell you guys that Brawler is acting wolfy I don't know what would

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 06, 2015, 08:34:28 PMI need to read through these logs and the thread again, but from what I see it does look like Brawler is overreacting a bit to the whole Fank-Noc thing, so I'll place a tentative vote on him.

Brawler4Ever

(At least, until I get to sit down and form a better opinion and suspicion list, in which case I may change my vote.)

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 02:45:40 PMMight also throw in that he voted for me afterwards which when combined with the fact that none of his defense amounts to anything means it's just a revenge vote

• Noc's initial vote had no reasoning behind it, and
• Noc accused him of being in league with BDS.

• Noc did explain his reasoning earlier.
• Noc was not ignoring Brawler intentionally.
• BDS and Brawler are not necessarily aligned, but one being a wolf more likely makes the other a wolf.
• Noc did not misquote Brawler because he did not alter what Brawler said.
• Reiterates that he did not vote without reason.
• Brawler's vote could be a revenge vote.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 07, 2015, 05:18:47 PMMael, I gotta be honest, what you said didn't really make sense

Quote from: davy on July 07, 2015, 02:24:50 AMIf games are not designed to be alliance games, that doesn't mean alliances can't be helpful (just think of Sauce is Pretty Coll). This point alone doesn't mean much.

QuoteIn that case, we will also kill a wolf, which means the number of mislynches we can make will increase from 3 to 4 and the number of correct lynches we have to make will decrease from 3 to 2, putting the wolves, who already have a disadvantage in numbers this game, on an even bigger disadvantage. Personally, I don't think the wolves will take that risk, especially considering fake claiming is something not to often done on this forum (outside from a certain few members).

QuoteI have the complete oposite experience with alliances regarding activity. Looking at the most active games by number of posts, the number one was a game that got so active because everyone was discussing wether the alliance was infiltrated or not. The top three most active games all had alliances, and 10 out of the top 16 (first page) games had them. Also, in all but one of the other 7 games alliances were completely impossible to form because either specials didn't know their role, or because there were no specials.
Yes, unfortunately, there is already a dead player. However, if Fank was a special, the wolves won't know that either, and they have to risk losing one of their member which means they will be at a disadvantage.

QuoteBut even if the seer finds any reds, that player won't have any way of sharing it without sacrificing himself, which would be the same as when the seer would be counterclaimed. And I don't know about you, but I don't trust our seer to be able to create the lynch on the seer'd player other than sharing the result. If we want the seer to be of any use, that player must have a way to get the seer'd role killed, therefore we need an alliance.

QuoteI am not actually willing to depend on this. The chance of the guardian blocking a wolfing is much smaller than the chance of the guardian dying. I'd rather be sure the guardian is useful before that player dies (by setting up the alliance), that have a very small chance the guardian is useful and a big chance that that player dies before he/she can be useful.
The guardian, who is pretty much a normal human that knows his role due to the sheer ammount of powers that get past guarding, the fact that the guardian can't self-guard and the fact that the only way the guardian becomes useful without sacrificing himself is if that player is lucky enough to hit the same player as the player that would be wolfed, seems like a pretty good sacrifice to me for creating an alliance.

QuoteIf we vigi without alliance, we risk the vigi killing the seer (or the guardian). If we don't vigi, we lose additional mislynches (which is essentially what the vigi creates). If we vigi with an alliance we don't risk the vigi killing the seer and we won't lose our additional mislynches.
If the vigi doesn't know who the seer is, any shot he takes risks hitting the seer. If you mean that he should not take any shot out of risking hitting the seer, than we lose additional mislynches.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 07, 2015, 04:58:04 PMAlso going to end by saying that I have some pretty high suspicions on Mashi as well, but I'll wait until Day 2 to look into it.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 06, 2015, 05:47:15 PMThe problem with this is that you are twisting facts to suit theories, not creating theories to suit facts. In your mind, I am a wolf, and the reasons behind this suspicion can come later. This is manipulative. This is something a wolf would do.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 07, 2015, 04:16:02 AMOn the subject of alliances:

davy and I discussed possible setbacks, but decided not to share them, so that we wouldn't give the wolves a weapon to use in the future. But it's relevant to the current discussion, and since Mashi already posted the question that we had, I don't see any point in not posting it now.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 07, 2015, 08:02:25 PM19:54   Brawler4Ever   I have to admit, that wasn't my best moment

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMThis is incorrect.  Regardless of whether a Wolf is lynched or not, in this game, Humans lose on the 5th mislynch.

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMYour statement about losing mislynchs is false.  If the Vigi vigis every Night Phase and we mislynch every Day Phase, then by the time we reach Day 3, there will be 3 Wolves and 5 Humans remaining, with having been made 2 lynches and 2 vigis.  However, if we don't vigi at all, then by Day 5, there will be 3 Wolves and 4 Humans remaining, with having been made 4 lynches.  The former will technically give us an extra kill for the Human, but at the risk of missing Day Phases and a bit complicated statistical stuff regarding normal Day Phase and vigi Wolf-kill probabilities.  The latter gives us the maximum number of Day Phases, but causes our Vigi to do nothing.

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMat (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=4920.0)

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMNSM's (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=5039.0)

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMgames (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=5412.0)

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMnone (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=5682.0)

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMwere (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=5625.0)

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMwhereas active games (20+ pages) are consistently almost always non-alliance games.

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMI would attribute the game being active due to unique circumstances and the Players rather than anything about the design; it's incredibly conspicuous that the game was an outlier.

Quote from: Mashi on July 07, 2015, 06:50:44 PMDid you calculate the statistic?  Because the chances of a Guardian making a successful guard (where number of players alive is n and number of Wolves alive should be a bit less than 1/(n-1).  The chances of the Guardian being killed is 1/(n-w).
I decided to simulate the chances of a Guardian making a successful block on Excel.  I assumed 13 Players were alive, 3 of them were Wolves, 1 was a Guardian, the Wolves don't wolf themselves, and the Guardian can't guard himself/herself.  Based on a sample size of 15315, 1153 successful guards were made, which is about 7.523% successful guards!  With those same assumptions, the chances of the Guardian being wolfed is 10%, so getting a successful guard in certainly isn't out of the question.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 07, 2015, 07:36:52 PMFirst off, I'd like to say that I'm not a fan of this hiding (or delayed posting) of chatlogs. All information in the chat should be available to all players, it's not supposed to be some exclusive group thing. The only reason players would need to talk secretly when no alliance exists is if they are wolves, so share! I'm a bit suspicious of davy and Brawler for doing that not once but twice, and I probably would have voted for davy last phase if I got here in time. I've been giving Brawler and Dudeman more leeway this game because they're newer players, but if next day phase we're in a similar situation I won't look the other way

Quote from: Bubbles on July 07, 2015, 07:58:59 PM22:44   bubbles   but how were you comfortable enough to have that conversation in the first place?
22:45   bubbles   how did you know that the people you were talking to werent wolves trying to draw things out?
22:45   bubbles   or vice versa

Quote from: Bubbles on July 07, 2015, 07:58:59 PM22:48   bubbles   its not the " lets not post this" that i have an issue with, its the "lets not post this--wait nvm lets post it now"

Quote from: Bubbles on July 07, 2015, 07:58:59 PM22:48   bubbles   its not necessarily bad, i just dont like it

Quote from: davy on July 08, 2015, 05:56:48 AMAlso, I think I missed the seccond time (or I just can't find it). Can you link me to the post where we are deliberately ommiting parts of the chat?

Quote from: davy on July 07, 2015, 05:12:16 PM(I lost a bit of the chatlog because it was too long, sorry).

chatlog

00:56   BlackDragonSlayer   Having players who remain inactive throughout the game is detrimental, especially late in the game, when wolves can easily take advantage of the lack of votes to push a lynch that wouldn't normally go through.
00:56   davy   And the same isn't true for you because...?
00:56   BlackDragonSlayer   Whereas lynching a player because they're probably going to be lynched anyway is not only lazy, but also unhelpful because there are other ways to determine alignment.
00:57   BlackDragonSlayer   Especially when you insinuate that that person is possibly a human either way.
00:58   davy   Lynching inactives is also lazy, there are also other ways to determine alignment and that player is possible a human as well.
00:58   BlackDragonSlayer   But they're not going to be active either way.
00:58   davy   You can never be sure about that.
00:59   davy   And most importantly, he changed his vote to a better grounded one, so his bad lynching reason is not of present concern anyway.
01:00   BlackDragonSlayer   "You can never be sure about that." For the most part, yes.
01:00   BlackDragonSlayer   "And most importantly, he changed his vote to a better grounded one, so his bad lynching reason is not of present concern anyway." It still happened either way.
01:00      *** Brawler4Ever joined #TWG
01:00   davy   Hi there
01:00   Brawler4Ever   hey
01:01   davy   We're currently discussing BDS's vote.
01:01   Brawler4Ever   ok
01:01   Brawler4Ever   it's currently against firearrow, correct?
01:01   davy   Yes.
01:01   Brawler4Ever   i just saw your post. i miscounted lol.
01:02   davy   For the reason why he went for BDS.
01:02   Brawler4Ever   who went for BDS? FireArrow?
01:02   davy   And I'm like, it was an early day one vote, which are often not very well thought out, and he changed his vote to a better one later anyway
01:02   davy   Yes, FA
01:03   Brawler4Ever   ok I see
01:03   Brawler4Ever   I see your point, BDS
01:03   davy   "one of (BDS)'s selling points for the lynch is that he's probably going to be lynched later anyway, so if he's a human, he should be lynched now"
01:04   BlackDragonSlayer   It seemed to me like he would have kept his vote had the lynched picked up more traction, though.
01:04   BlackDragonSlayer   "one of (BDS)'s selling points for the lynch is that he's probably going to be lynched later anyway, so if he's a human, he should be lynched now" FireArrow's, actually.
01:04   Brawler4Ever   it sounds like he was trying to build up the anti-BDS bandwagon
01:04   Brawler4Ever   yeah, I got that
01:04   Brawler4Ever   nvm i don't have it
01:05   Brawler4Ever   who's saying that? I'm looking for it in the forum
01:06   davy   I just think you are overanalysing his vote, but I do understeand now why you vote for him. Thanks for explaining.
01:06   BlackDragonSlayer   Also, about the inactives thing, keep in mind the ending of TWG 65.
01:07   Brawler4Ever   i wasn't there for TWG 65. Should I look it up?
01:07   davy   However, it seems like the lynch is going to be decided between Brawler and NoS.
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   That's one of the games I was referring to.
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=6176.msg243345#msg243345
01:07   davy   Also, about BDS thing, keep in mind the entirety of TWG 55
01:07   Brawler4Ever   lol
01:07   Brawler4Ever   so much history
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   Basically I left Wolf alive on the chance that he'd actually go for the illogical lynch.
01:07   davy   And a bunch of other games.
01:07   Brawler4Ever   I need to catch up on my reading
01:08   davy   But back on topic, are you (BDS) comfortable with keeping distance from the NoS/Brawler debate, and if not, who would you rather have dying today?
01:09   Brawler4Ever   should I leave the room?
01:09   davy   No, please stay. The more chatters the bigger the chat party.
01:09   Brawler4Ever   i mean for this specific discussion, lol
01:09   davy   Also, BDS and I could discuss in private if we wanted to.
01:10   Brawler4Ever   i would prefer that, for BDS's sake
01:10   BlackDragonSlayer   50/50 between them now. I think some of Nocturne's later actions are a bit strange.
01:10   davy   And the 50 for Brawler because overreaction?
01:11   davy   I don't mind you (Brawler) contributing to the discussion either.
01:11   Brawler4Ever   it's not fair if nocturne isn't here to defend himself
01:11   Brawler4Ever   any comment I make will invariably be trying to make BDS come to my side
01:12   davy   That's his fault, not yours.
01:12   BlackDragonSlayer   Mostly because I could potentially see him being a wolf in this situation also, as I mention in an earlier chat (with Mashi and Bubbles).
01:12   Brawler4Ever   I don't believe that that creates a healthy community
01:12   Brawler4Ever   btw, i posted a new counter to nocturne in the forum
01:12   BlackDragonSlayer   I.e. He hasn't done anything to expressly make me believe he's human.
01:12   davy   Brawler, we're killing eachother, and fighting for our lives, and you think this is a healthy community?
01:12   Brawler4Ever   have i done anything to make me seem wolfish, other than defend myself?
01:13   BlackDragonSlayer   Not expressly wolfish, either.
01:13   Brawler4Ever   honor is the only thing that separates us from the wolves
01:13   Brawler4Ever   or some such noble bullcrap whatever
01:13   davy   Nope, number and knowledge are the only things that sperates us from the wolves
01:13   davy   I often lie as a human.
01:13   Brawler4Ever   my argument with nocturne came after he accused me
01:14   Brawler4Ever   his accusation had absolutely no basis
01:14   Brawler4Ever   everything came AFTER Mashi posted our chat log
01:14   Brawler4Ever   with which I am perfectly fine
01:14   Brawler4Ever   but NoS had no reason to suspect me of anything, unless he also suspects you, BDS
01:14   Brawler4Ever   but he expressly denies that now
01:15   davy   So BDS, if Brawler doesn't seem either wolfish or human, but Nocturne's later actions are strange, why is it a 50/50 instead of leading towards Noct?
01:15   BlackDragonSlayer   I recall him saying that he did suspect me.
01:15   Brawler4Ever   his only argument now is that I'm overreacting (which, to be honest, I am)
01:15   Brawler4Ever   who suspected you? me?
01:15   Brawler4Ever   of course I did
01:15   BlackDragonSlayer   Nocturne.
01:15   Brawler4Ever   you made a very strange comment
01:15   Brawler4Ever   oh
01:16   Brawler4Ever   pretty sure everybody suspected you, BDS xD
01:16   davy   Brawler, do you have the mood swing curse? (see TWG 73)
01:16   Brawler4Ever   nah
01:16   Brawler4Ever   olimar's comment ticked me off
01:17   Brawler4Ever   im not bipolar or anything
01:17   BlackDragonSlayer   "if Brawler doesn't seem either wolfish or human, but Nocturne's later actions are strange, why is it a 50/50 instead of leading towards Noct?" Nocturne's earlier actions weren't (or rather, earlier actions involving Nocturne). There's always the possibility that Nocturne is just reacting strangely to the situation.
01:17   davy   Ok, I understeand.
01:17   Brawler4Ever   nocturne's actions we're what?
01:17   Brawler4Ever   wolfish?
01:17   davy   Is there any other player that you would consider lynching (besides FA)?
01:18   davy   were strange
01:18   Brawler4Ever   ok
01:18   Brawler4Ever   if it weren't for NoS, I'd be voting for Toby with Dude
01:19   Brawler4Ever   oh, bird is a member of this forum
01:19   Brawler4Ever   i did not know that
01:19   BlackDragonSlayer   At this point, aside from the people who have already been mentioned, I don't feel strongly suspicious about anybody in particular. However, I think Mashi is human at this point.
01:19   Brawler4Ever   sorry, tangent
01:19   davy   Why do you think that?
01:19   davy   Mashi is the person I'm always least certain of his humanity
01:19   davy   (together with bird and verm of course)
01:20   BlackDragonSlayer   I was reading some older games on LLF, and Mashi was talking similarly in a few of those games towards me as he was in this game.
01:20   Brawler4Ever   hahaha! i have no history! I am a closed book! muahahaha!
01:20   davy   Towards you? In private, in the chat or in the topic?
01:20   davy   You have a history of reviving the first wolf victim as soon as possible.
01:20   BlackDragonSlayer   Just the way he was going about asking questions/interrogating me.  In the chat. Bubbles was there also.
01:20   Brawler4Ever   ...
01:20   Brawler4Ever   that was one time...
01:21   davy   Especially if you are scared to death of being wolf'd.
01:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Olimar might've been there also, or he might have left at that time.
01:21   Brawler4Ever   exactly my thoughts
01:21   davy   Your thoughts about what?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   was he a wolf in those games?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   or a human? mashi, I mean?
01:21   davy   What games?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   BDS's games
01:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Brawler is starting to confuse me a bit.
01:22   davy   The games on LLF you mentioned.
01:22   Brawler4Ever   yes, davy and I were on a tangent
01:22   davy   was mashi a human there?
01:22   Brawler4Ever   im trying to get us out of it.
01:22   BlackDragonSlayer   He was human in those games, and I think I might've been a wolf in one of them...? I'd have to go back and read through them again to cite specific examples.
01:23   Brawler4Ever   i don't think that's necessary, honestly
01:23   Brawler4Ever   i don't trust mashi
01:23   davy   What do you guys think about a Dudeman lynch?
01:23   Brawler4Ever   why dudeman?
01:24   BlackDragonSlayer   Yeah... why Dudeman...?
01:24   Brawler4Ever   because of his comment against me?
01:24   davy   I was thinking about voting for him before NoS recent posts.
01:24   davy   Yes
01:24   davy   It was pretty bandwagoning, and he didn't seem to care that you had a vote against you already.
01:24   Brawler4Ever   "Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon." -Dudeman
01:25   davy   this post:http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg296540#msg296540
01:25   Brawler4Ever   a few others commented and destroyed his reasoning
01:25   Brawler4Ever   bubbles and mashi, specifically
01:25   Brawler4Ever   yeah
01:25   Brawler4Ever   the problem that I have with mashi is that he keeps coming to my defense
01:26   davy   That doesn't change the fact that he has a vote on you.
01:26   Brawler4Ever   he does?
01:26   davy   Actually, with his reasoning being destroyed, that should make him even more suspicious.
01:26   BlackDragonSlayer   Hmm. That Dudeman post could possibly be a misinterpretation of intention, though I'd have to read more into the context to be certain (as in, it would be helpful if he were here right now).
01:26   davy   dudeman I mean.
01:26   Brawler4Ever   last i saw, he was voting for dudeman
01:26   davy   not mashi
01:27   Brawler4Ever   yeah, dudeman is against me
01:27   Brawler4Ever   everything would be way more helpful if everybody was here
01:27   Brawler4Ever   and way more confusing
01:27   Brawler4Ever   i can see dudeman joining NoS's bandwagon against me
01:27   Brawler4Ever   intentionally, as a wolf
01:29   Brawler4Ever   you think that the guardian should come out immediately, davy?
01:29   davy   BlackDragonSlayer, are you reading into the context atm?
01:30   davy   Yes I still do.
01:30   BlackDragonSlayer   Not right now.
01:30   BlackDragonSlayer   I have to go soon; I'll probably do it later.
01:30   davy   Could you do that? I'd like to have an agreement before I go to sleep.
01:30   davy   The reading I mean.
01:31   BlackDragonSlayer   How many voted did Brawler have before Dudeman voted for him?
01:31   davy   1
01:31   davy   And Olimar voted soon thereafter.
01:31   Brawler4Ever   just nocturne
01:31   Brawler4Ever   yeah
01:31   davy   hey look, dudeman is posting!
01:32   davy   I wonder what he'll say.
01:32   BlackDragonSlayer   Nocturne/Dudeman/Olimar wolves trying to start a bandwagon?
01:32   davy   Not all of them obviously.
01:32   Brawler4Ever   i doubt olimar is a wolf
01:33   davy   I do think there is a wolf among them however.
01:33   BlackDragonSlayer   Hm. You seem to share a few opinions with Mashi...
01:33   Brawler4Ever   based solely on his latest post
01:33   davy   Olimar I also think is the least likeliest to be a wolf.
01:33   Brawler4Ever   i think he's just busy
01:33   BlackDragonSlayer   From Mashi, referring to Dudeman: "I dislike this post.  Your first post of substance is latching onto NocturneOfShadow's suspicion and for non-concrete reasoning."
01:33   Brawler4Ever   true
01:34   Brawler4Ever   not something a wolf would openly say to another wolf
01:34   Brawler4Ever   unless he was under really deep cover
01:34   davy   Indeed I do share a few opinions with Mashi.
01:36   Brawler4Ever   mashi is very good at this game, from what I can tell
01:36   davy   So, does either or both of you any bit interested in lynching dudeman?
01:37   Brawler4Ever   can't busy defending myself against NoS, who I am still fairly certain is a wolf.
01:37   Brawler4Ever   what's your opinion, davy?
01:37   Brawler4Ever   do you believe that he's a wolf?
01:37   davy   I'm not sure, but atm to me he's the likeliest player to be a wolf
01:37   Brawler4Ever   he, being NoS
01:37   davy   followed closely by dudeman.
01:38   BlackDragonSlayer   I'd consider it, depending on what he does or does not say.
01:38   Brawler4Ever   he's had it out for me since the beginning
01:38   davy   I'm actually considering lynching dudeman and leaving NoS for the vigi.
01:38   Brawler4Ever   none of his arguments come before Mashi's chat log
01:38   Brawler4Ever   why not vice versa?
01:39   davy   Nocturne's early behaviour doesn't really concern me. He starts all his games like that.
01:39   Brawler4Ever   does he? ok then.
01:39   Brawler4Ever   maybe history isn't so bad....
01:40   davy   It's a little too coincedental that you are also the player that he decides to put an actually clarified vote on.
01:40   BlackDragonSlayer   "I'm actually considering lynching dudeman and leaving NoS for the vigi." Hmm, that might be a good idea, actually.
01:40   davy   Our great overlord Mashi has arrived at NSM.
01:41   Brawler4Ever   act inconspicuous
01:41   Brawler4Ever   he must know nothing
01:41   Brawler4Ever   jk
01:41   davy   Why do you think that is a good idea BDS, and more importantly, a better one than lynching either of them?
01:42   BlackDragonSlayer   because it gets two suspicious players out of the way and is actually a fairly substantial d1 lynch compared to what is usually done
01:43   davy   01:38   Brawler4Ever   why not vice versa? - Regarding lynching and vigi'ing?
01:45   BlackDragonSlayer   Why would it matter, if two suspicious players die either way?
01:45   Brawler4Ever   because it's how they die
01:45   Brawler4Ever   if NoS is lynched, they won't know if he was wolved or vigi'ed
01:45   Brawler4Ever   unless we make a public request?
01:45   davy   Because I think the vigi can be swayed for a NoS vigi more easily than a Dudeman vigi
01:46   BlackDragonSlayer   Why?
01:46   davy   Of course, we would make it a public request
01:46   Brawler4Ever   what are the chances of him vigi'ing me instead?
01:46   Brawler4Ever   assuming me and NoS both survive, somehow
01:46   davy   Roughly the same of him being NoS or Olimar, I think.
01:46   Brawler4Ever   jk
01:46   Brawler4Ever   it's not important, just a funny thought
01:47   Brawler4Ever   yeah, there's not much on Dudeman atm
01:47   davy   NoS has been in the spotlight the entire game, has a case going against him that is less easily reverted and is generally a player that raises suspicion by every player.
01:48   davy   as for why I think the vigi would be  more likely to go for NoS.
01:48   Brawler4Ever   "and is generally a player that raises suspicion by every player." that could technically be used in his defense
01:48   Brawler4Ever   which he already has done
01:49   davy   How could that be used in his defence?
01:49   Brawler4Ever   since he's always suspicious, the fact that he is suspicious now is part of his personality

[close]

Quote from: davy on July 08, 2015, 05:56:48 AM"I don't think this player is a wolf, but I am going to lynch him because I don't like the way he plays this game." That's a really bad human play, Bubbles. I know you can do better.

Quote from: FireArrow on July 08, 2015, 05:23:27 PMAfter thinking about it for a bit, an alliance might be extremely useful under the pretense that there is no master wolf. If anyone is seered green or blue, they're a confirmed human. Unless they can magically predict who's getting seered every night this would give us a growing alliance.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 08, 2015, 05:40:19 PMDude. There's a wolf painter.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 04, 2015, 02:30:24 PMLysandre ... is able to influence the Seers to misinterpret one player's color every night phase.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 04, 2015, 02:30:24 PMLysandre, their leader, is a distinguished businessman and is even considered a friend by the esteemed Professor Sycamore, so as such is able to influence the Seers to misinterpret one player's color every night phase. He and his henchmen, fashionable though they may be, will be Seer'd red, though the elite Celosia can herself Seer other players.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 08, 2015, 07:03:31 PMFor the record, I was gone that whole time so I wasn't aware of the conversation. I did show up later and see it though. No hard feelings.

And no, I don't hate everyone. Here's a smiley face to prove it: :)

Quote from: Bubbles on July 08, 2015, 07:26:39 PMWe're not told who was the wolfing and who was the vigi? I'm going to assume davy was the vigi and FA was the wolfing, since that makes the most sense I guess

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 08, 2015, 06:58:16 PM17:42   Brawler4Ever   this is the point where I start getting suspicous of FireArrow

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 08, 2015, 07:32:25 PMFireArrow? I have no idea. Either way. I have nothing against him, but I don't see why he would be wolfed/vigi'd.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 08, 2015, 07:53:44 PMdavy, on the other hand, makes complete sense to me. I'm fairly certain his death is a direct result of his continual support of an alliance. Both the vigi and the wolves would see this as a threat.

If davy was not a wolf, the wolves would see him as an obstacle in the future; it's much easier for the wolves to win if the humans don't have an alliance. So they would have reason to wolf him, thus basically stopping all support for an alliance, and making their job easier in the long run.

The vigi would see his continual support of an alliance as a huge mistake, presumably. Almost everybody was against it, except FireArrow, ironically. If the alliance is doomed to fail from the beginning (as everybody but davy believed) why continue to support it, and publicly call for the Guardian to reveal himself? It would seem, to the vigi in this specific case, that davy was a wolf, trying to get the Guardian to reveal himself so that they would have an easy kill, at the very least.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 08, 2015, 08:31:22 PM(you should know what I'm talking about, as you were there; as a specific example, how much his opinions lined up with Mashi's, yet he seemed to be suspicious of him... just because...?)

Quote from: Yugi on July 08, 2015, 09:02:21 PMHey everyone. What d'ya need me to do?

Quote from: Yugi on July 08, 2015, 09:08:10 PMAlso, its entirely possible that the wolves used the strongarm kill tonight, to push us to an odd number of players and making it so the game ends on a night phase.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 04, 2015, 02:30:24 PMFinally, Team Flare's prototype of the Ultimate Weapon allows them to have a "Piercing" power that will cause a person to die even if the Guardian has protected them, though this will only be effective once.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 08, 2015, 09:14:31 PMin addition to

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 10, 2015, 02:08:09 AMActivity seems to have died down for a bit. Let's spark a discussion, shall we? Bubbles. Why are you a human and who are you suspicious of (I'd also like other players to answer this as well)? I will considering changing my vote if your answers are informative enough.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 10, 2015, 10:06:20 AMRoughly eight hours until Day Two ends.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 10, 2015, 12:36:59 PMOnce again, the Piercing power isn't a conscious decision. If the Wolves attack someone who is also being guarded, they get a free kill.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 10, 2015, 12:16:34 PMI'd like to hear more from Dudeman. He hasn't contributed much of anything from what I've seen, even though he made that wall of text last day phase. It wasn't much of a look at his feelings as it was a recap of everything that's happened; basically just a list of facts. Earlier to that post he suggested lynching brawler for possibly being a special, which raised my suspicions on him. Sure it could've been a rookie mistake, but I can't just ignore that. I said last phase that I was going to give him a little more time but with this quiet spell I've lost my patience lol
Summary: he's been fairly quiet and that's a strategy for a newbie wolf

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 10, 2015, 01:02:49 PMThe piercing power is supposed to make it harder for us to form an alliance, not the other way around.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 10, 2015, 01:09:02 PMNote that the guardian protects against vigis, B4E.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 09, 2015, 09:55:18 AMWhat if either davy or FireArrow was a blue? What if the wolves had Seen one of them on Night 1 and wolfed one of them the following Night? There's 4 blues in the game (Seer, Guardian, Vigi, and Psychic) so it wouldn't be that unlikely. It'd be a 1/3 chance for either (15 players - 3 wolves = 12 remaining players, 4 blues / 12 players = 1/3 chance). I'm fairly certain that neither was the Guardian, since both were on board for an alliance. But one of the them being a blue is the only thing that makes sense to me with the death of FireArrow.

Quote from: Yugi on July 10, 2015, 04:19:14 PMI'd say that my not knowing of the strongarm mechanic points to my favour.

Quote from: Mashi on July 10, 2015, 01:55:41 PMIn addition to that, he mistakenly believes that Wolves had a seering Night 1 and I'm doubting he did so intentionally.

Quote from: Bubbles on July 10, 2015, 12:16:34 PMI'd like to hear more from Dudeman. He hasn't contributed much of anything from what I've seen, even though he made that wall of text last day phase. It wasn't much of a look at his feelings as it was a recap of everything that's happened; basically just a list of facts. Earlier to that post he suggested lynching brawler for possibly being a special, which raised my suspicions on him. Sure it could've been a rookie mistake, but I can't just ignore that. I said last phase that I was going to give him a little more time but with this quiet spell I've lost my patience lol
Summary: he's been fairly quiet and that's a strategy for a newbie wolf

QuoteI can't remember the last time I was targeted, this is kinda exciting :D I'm not much of a player for analyzing myself, but I'd love to hear why you think I'm a human or a wolf and I'll answer accordingly.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 10, 2015, 07:35:02 PMHowever, I would like to add that there have been a lack of posts with any substance to them from him. I know I'm far from the first person to say that, but it's quite true.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 10, 2015, 07:40:00 PMas dudeman pointed out, the same could be said of Dude.

Quote18:25   Dudeman42   Also can we just lynch Dude and be done with it
18:25   Dudeman42   he's done nothing

QuoteNight Two is over. davy and FireArrow are dead. It is now Day Two. Day Two will end on Friday, July 12, 2015, at 9:00 PM EST

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 11, 2015, 06:28:24 PMWelp
Does that mean Latios was the vigi?
Or is the vigi just lazy?

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 11, 2015, 09:30:08 PMMy main concern right now is Yugi. His claim as a human due to his misunderstanding is, in my opinion, very suspicious. Several players have made mistakes, but why does making a mistake show that one is human? It seems to me that Yugi is trying to build a cover in this case more than honestly defend himself.

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 03:10:07 PMMashi acting like bird ftw

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on July 06, 2015, 07:32:00 AMMashi's log is human points for him

Quote from: Mashi on July 06, 2015, 04:18:59 PMI think NocturneOfShadow's being contributive early on is a good sign and I'm willing to give him a Human lean for it, but it's anomalous behaviour regardless.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 08, 2015, 09:07:36 PMYeah, I never understood [davy's] reasoning behind being suspicious of Mashi. Something along the lines of davy saying "I am least certain of [Mashi's] humanity," but the subject was soon changed and didn't come up again. I was suspicious of Mashi because of a subtle friendship, per se, with NoS. They repeatedly complimented each other throughout the game. However, other players, like Latios, did the same with other players. So I believe that I was overthinking their "friendship." Possibly. I don't see it as a viable enough reason to pursue Mashi's lynching, that's for sure.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 12, 2015, 10:39:00 PMI mentioned before that I considered there to be a friendship between mashi and noc. This is the reason for it. In a conversation between me and dudeman, we discussed this behavior. Forgot which one. Sorry. Apparently, it's common in the TWG community.
My retort is that it can be used by wolves to gently lift another. If, for example, we believe that mashi is human and backs noc, then we can believe that noc has a much better chance of being human. When in reality they're both wolves. That's just how I see it, and I'm not sure how stable this reasoning is. To me, it feels wrong. But that may just be my inexperience talking.

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 12, 2015, 11:07:36 PMMore formal post about mashi suspicions:

My mashi suspicions go back to the Latios lynch. As already said, him, dudeman and I were comparing his past playing styles in the chat and came up with some similarities. Being that I had no other suspicions at the time, and that no one else had voted on him, I decided to place my vote on him (attempting to get more into the game, I was trying not to lazily safety-vote again). Since it wasn't that strong of a suspicion to go on (having little evidence), I didn't feel good about incriminating him last second, so I mentioned that I was only glad to vote on him since he had no other votes (all of this seen in the log below).

Quote

Spoiler

19:31   Mashi   I'm thinkinggg
19:31   Mashi   Latios212 and Maelstrom right now
19:31   Mashi   sry brb quickly
19:32   Olimar12345   Latios is pretty active elsewhere, it is kind of odd that he's not participating as much
19:32   Olimar12345   or, at least I expected to see more from him.
19:32   Dudeman42   True. Last game he was human and really active. I'm surprised.
19:33   Dudeman42   He was the most active player next to me.
19:33   Olimar12345   was he?
19:33   Dudeman42   Yeah. He was the miller with a death vigi.
19:34   Olimar12345   has he been a wolf in a past game?
19:34   Dudeman42   Not sure...
19:34   Olimar12345   maybe we can compare his playing styles
19:34   Dudeman42   I'll check.
19:35   Olimar12345   i'm checking too...
19:36   Dudeman42   Ah!
19:36   Dudeman42   TWG 76.
19:36   Olimar12345   yep- wolf painter
19:38   Dudeman42   Ooo, it's looking a bit similar. Short posts making an accusation with little explanation. I'm only a few pages in...
19:38   Olimar12345   13 posts in 18 pafes
19:39   Dudeman42   Lemme look at some of his human games...
19:40   Mashi   Back.
19:40   Mashi   Latios212, Maelstrom, BlackDragonSlayer, Bubbles, Yugi
19:41   Mashi   I think the 2 or 3 of the Wolves are within those 5.
19:41   Olimar12345   Yo mashi, remember anything in particular about Latios' participation in TWG 76?
19:41   Olimar12345   looks lke you were the host
19:41   Mashi   Uhh
19:42   Mashi   What was the title?
19:42   Mashi   nvm
19:42   Mashi   Okay, so
19:42   Mashi   Latios212 was playing his first or second game
19:42   Mashi   And he was Wolf Partners with Bird
19:42   Mashi   And I think he was pretty active, but people became suspicious of him early on in the game.
19:42   Mashi   I think due to a Red seering?
19:43   Mashi   No, he wasn't seered.
19:43   Olimar12345   that's unlucky.
19:43   Mashi   But others were seered and he was suspected through process of elimination and probably the tone of his posts.
19:43   Dudeman42   I'm looking through TWG 78 where he was a human. He's literally posted nothing.
19:43   Dudeman42   In about 10 pages.
19:43   Olimar12345   Well, that seems to be the only game in which he was been a wolf before
19:44   Olimar12345   oh? 10 pages...
19:44   Olimar12345   was he not replaced?
19:44   Dudeman42   Make that 14 pages.
19:44   Dudeman42   Oh wait, he died and I missed it
19:44   Dudeman42   XD
19:44   Dudeman42   my bad
19:45   Olimar12345   it looks like he was wolf'd night 1
19:45   Olimar12345   ninjad
19:45   Mashi   lol
19:45   Dudeman42   Yeah, there it is. Whoops.
19:45   Dudeman42   Gotta go to dinner; might be back?
19:45   Olimar12345   I just checked the postgame lol
19:45   Olimar12345   I'll be here
19:46   Mashi   Dudeman, vote someone you're suspicious of first if you haven't already.
19:46   Olimar12345   oh shit, phase ends in 15 minutes, right?
19:47   Mashi   Yeah.
19:48   Mashi   Oh, Dudeman voted already lol
19:48   Olimar12345   I only have vague latios suspicions, I don't want to incriminate him too quickly...
19:48   Olimar12345   oh wait no one else voted for him
19:49   Olimar12345   I guess that's better than nothing : /

[close]

QuoteDudeman still seemed set with BDS though, but Mashi surprised me when he Ninjad my vote-post with a Latios vote of his own. After he voted, he promptly went AFK before I could confront him about it:

Spoiler

19:51   Mashi   idk
19:51   Olimar12345   "stops post"
19:51   Olimar12345   what?
19:51   Mashi   Oh
19:51   Mashi   No, vote Latios212 if you want
19:51   Mashi   I'm trying to decide for myself, lol
19:51   Mashi   I don't want Dudeman lynched.
19:52   Mashi   My vote was just to pressure him and I got what I wanted.
19:54   Mashi   Voted.
19:55   Mashi   brb again
19:55   Olimar12345   now my vote looks like I copied you! : O

[close]

QuoteHe didn't seem to share the suspicion or interest as much as dudeman and I had.

QuoteHe also knew that I was interested in voting on someone that didn't already have a vote. Out of time with no other suspicions, I kind of just let it happen, hoping we were right. Looking back on it, it seems that he might have only switched his vote as a mild-bandwagon, go-with-the-flow-of-the-chat route to take. As he said, as a wolf, he could have voted for anyone since there were enough single votes to control a mislynch. Switching to Latios abruptly and unannounced in the chat just didn't sit well with me...

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 12:12:16 AMI read the part of the log where you expressed your suspicion of me, I was waiting for you to make a post.  It's good to get your thoughts in the open and generally better to post them in a well thought post than lost in a chatlog.

...

If you recall, I urged you to pressure NocturneOfShadow since you were suspicious of him.  When people started suspecting you, I posted stating that I was surprised and believed you were Human yourself.  Do you think I would have done any of that if NocturneOfShadow were my Partner?

Quote from: Mashi on July 10, 2015, 01:55:41 PMI had presumed that SlowPokemon made the piercing a one-use active (rather than passive) ability on the Wolves's side, but too late to change it now, so oh well.  If that's the case, then the Guardian actually may as well be used as an alliance head, but it might be too late for that.  Sorry, davy!  That was my fault.

Quote from: Yugi on July 13, 2015, 12:42:36 AMJust going to say, the forum is refusing to load for me 99% of the time, so I'll need to be replaced, if you don't want inactivity

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 13, 2015, 10:39:13 AMOne question, though, mashi: why would a passive flare gun be weaker than an active Flare Gun? With an active Flare Gun (not automatic) the wolves might hit a target that wasn't guarded and waste their ability. But a passive ability would guarantee that they hit their target, even if guarded, with no extra work on their own. I just want to know your thought process on that.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 13, 2015, 10:46:21 AMAlso, what happens in a tie? Or if nobody is voted on? Is it then random as to whom gets lynched?

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 13, 2015, 11:57:08 AMYour argument works both ways, though. I could have easily changed my vote as well to steer a mislynch if I didn't want Latios to die. : /

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 13, 2015, 12:24:03 PMHell, you never did explain why you thought Latios and Maelstrom were such good lynch candidates.

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 01:56:38 PMAlso, a KitB is bad (particularly in our previous Day Phase) because it's more likely to kill a Wolf than a Human.  Wolves are going to be okay with KitBs if none of them are in serious danger.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 13, 2015, 03:30:53 PMJust a thought: latios was active elsewhere but not here. What if he did that intentionally?

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 12:12:16 AMAgain, you should be voting for people you want lynched; if you vote for someone you don't want lynched, you're wasting your vote.

Quote from: Mashi on July 10, 2015, 01:55:41 PMI share Bubbles concerns regarding Dudeman, so I'll throw on a vote for pressure.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 13, 2015, 04:10:47 PMI'm gonna follow through on my suspicions finally and vote Mashi. His argument not to have an alliance stemmed (before the statistcs) from the statement "this isn't an alliance game." Who cares? That's for the specials to decide. He's been very logical apart from that, but I agree with Mael: that sentence about KitB's has something very weird behind it. That andThis when he agreed with Bubbles vote the last Day Phase when Bubbles was just pressuring me into talking. Did you want me lynched, Mashi? No. Proof:I rest my case.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 13, 2015, 03:30:53 PMJust a thought: latios was active elsewhere but not here. What if he did that intentionally? He gets lynched, and then there's no vigi on the next night. I'm considering the possibility that he was the vigi. However, it might just be a coincidence.

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 13, 2015, 04:21:15 PMI'm still deciding on where to place my vote, but for now here's a current count:

Yugi: 1 (Brawler4Ever)
Olimar12345: 2 (Mashi & BDS)
Mashi: 1 (Dudeman)

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 01:56:38 PMAlso, a KitB is bad (particularly in our previous Day Phase) because it's more likely to kill a Wolf than a Human.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 13, 2015, 04:27:51 PMMashi, read this sentence again.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 13, 2015, 04:27:51 PMMashi, read this sentence again.

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 04:26:34 PMYou're currently the leading wagon, so you have to either vote me or Yugi or convince enough people to lynch someone else.

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 04:23:36 PMYou were inactive and I wanted to pressure you to be active.  If you're afraid of being lynched, you should have taken the vote seriously and responded.  And considering that you did, the pressure worked.

QuoteDudeman, your suspicion of me arises purely from strategy discussion and, unless you're being silly, I think it's a result of confirmation bias.  If I were a Wolf, why did I decide to switch my vote off of you?

QuoteWhy did I decide to wolf Bubbles, who was reading me as Human?

QuoteWhy did I decide to argue with davy about setting up an alliance if I believed that it was detrimental to the Human Team at the time?

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 13, 2015, 06:39:38 PMOlimar12345. This time my runner up is Maelstrom??

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 13, 2015, 06:39:38 PMOlimar12345. This time my runner up is Maelstrom??

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 13, 2015, 04:34:22 PMNinjad^lol, I think you wrote that backwards, mashi. We're actually trying to kill wolves, in case you haven't noticed xD

I don't have to "convince" anyone. If I seem like the best option, then so be it. I've got no quote or chat log up my sleeve that'll magically confirm my humanity. I've contributed and done my part for our team.

Quote from: Dudeman on July 13, 2015, 05:08:18 PMDoesn't change the fact that you still cast a vote without intention to lynch. And sure, who wouldn't be afraid of being lynched when they take the game seriously? Plus I'm among a larger pool of people who were also inactive.

QuoteDude. Latios. Maelstrom to an extent. And I did take the vote seriously; that's why I joined that chat session and posted saying there hasn't been much to say.I see it that you switched the vote because it would have been suspicious if you didn't.

QuoteI posted and showed up actively in the chat, which is what you pressured me to do. What other reason would you have had to keep the vote then? You wanted to hear from me, and you did.

QuoteCould you direct me to that? I looked through the thread but probably missed something.

QuoteSure, it would have been detrimental to the Humans, but it would be detrimental to the wolves if it had formed successfully. I'm gonna point out that two of your first three points were "not an alliance game" and "it kills activity." And the risks you pointed out are risks that exist with any alliance.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 13, 2015, 07:28:59 PMI feel that it's relevant to note that Olimar did not vote for Mashi, which would have saved himself.

Or it could be that he just forgot to vote, but I highly doubt it.

Until Jub does some explaining, he's my prime target. That was a horrible play.

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 08:16:08 PMIf it were any other Player, I would agree with you about Olimar12345.  Except that Olimar12345 voted for himself in TWG LXXII: Agents of Shield for no explained reason.  And he was a Wolf.  And he got lynched.
Granted, the alternative leading wagon in that game was on his Wolf Partner, but it was still a poor Wolf play on his part.

Quote from: Maelstrom on July 14, 2015, 06:21:10 PMWelp. Looks like the vigi's alive and kicking.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PM2) Olimar's accusation of latios being of a weak suspicion does not equal it being "without intent," as you put it.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PMBut then you used your comment that they were on your watchlist as an argument against Olimar anyway (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297409#msg297409).

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PMnot enough proof to lynch latios (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210).

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PMHowever, you are also on record (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210) saying that you had only voted for latios to get rid of the post on dudeman.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PMAnd Olimar was on record with his explanation (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210).

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 12, 2015, 09:37:15 PM23:07   Mashi   I wasn't into the lynch.
23:07   Mashi   Because the game's inactive.
23:08   Mashi   And you can't find Wolves when the game is inactive.
23:08   Mashi   But I had like 10 minutes left in the Phase.
23:08   Mashi   And I didn't want Dudeman lynched anymore.

Quote from: Olimar12345 on July 12, 2015, 09:37:15 PM23:07   Olimar12345   Idk, you didn't seem that into a Latios lynch before I said I was going to vote, and I had just said that I didn't want to condemn someone if I didn't have to
23:07   Olimar12345   (sorry, slow typer xD )
23:07   Olimar12345   typist*
23:07   Mashi   I wasn't into the lynch.
23:07   Mashi   Because the game's inactive.
23:08   Mashi   And you can't find Wolves when the game is inactive.
23:08   Mashi   But I had like 10 minutes left in the Phase.
23:08   Mashi   And I didn't want Dudeman lynched anymore.

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 14, 2015, 06:31:32 PMDoesn't change the facts. My accusation of you resides in 3 reasons:

1) Your accusation of latios was without cause. You had declared that he was on your watchlist, but you never explained why

QuoteWhen asked about it, you changed the subject to my "Flare Gun" and it was never addressed again.

QuoteSame goes for Maelstrom; your reasoning was never explained. But then you used your comment that they were on your watchlist as an argument against Olimar anyway (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297409#msg297409). Why were they on your watchlist in the first place?

Quote from: Mashi on July 13, 2015, 01:56:38 PMmaelstrom, I just looked at the Player list and thought you two might make good Partners for people in the thread.  Your plays seems a bit under the radar to me and Latios212 had stated in the thread a couple of times that he was going to be active only to show up with a random vote and then leave.  I was originally thinking of adding Doodle as a potential lynch candidate, but for reasons explained in my suspicion list, I felt he was Human.

Quote2) Olimar's accusation of latios being of a weak suspicion does not equal it being "without intent," as you put it.

QuoteHe acknowledged that it was a weak suspicion, and that there was not enough proof to lynch latios (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210). But, it was a start (that ended in latios' death).

QuoteYou voted on dudeman for the same reason, and I did the same with Yugi. However, of all of these cases, the only one where anyone was accused was Olimar's with latios. What makes Olimar's accusation so different?

Quote3) You accusation against Olimar resided wholely in your belief that they (Olimar and latios) were wolf partners.

QuoteThis reasoning came from Olimar's uneasiness with latios' death. By your logic, because he didn't want to go through with the lynching outright, he must not have wanted the lynching at all. Therefore, there must be a reason why that is. Your reason was that they must be wolf partners.

QuoteHowever, you are also on record (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210) saying that you had only voted for latios to get rid of the post on dudeman. And Olimar was on record with his explanation (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.210). A last-minute vote is, I believe anyway, to be a dirty move.

QuoteOlimar was uncomfortable with it because it put latios at an unfair position; he had no real time to defend himself. You also voted for latios, but you claim that you had ample reason to do so. Why was your accusation different than Olimar's?

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 15, 2015, 08:11:31 AMYou then argue that even if latios isn't a wolf, Olimar is still guilty of being a wolf anyway (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297495#msg297495). [Literally makes no sense to me, but I'll get to that in another post]

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMIf you're referring to why I didn't explain my reasoning for wanting to lynch between Latios212 and maelstrom while in the chat the day of the lynch, it was because no one asked me to and because I was busy that day and frequently had to "brb" as was evident by repeatedly saying such in the chat.  It isn't that my decision to vote for him was without cause; you just weren't proactive enough to ask.  Don't come up to false conclusions for something you didn't verify yourself.  If you had asked me why I wanted to lynch between them and I didn't answer, then you could feel free to accuse me of that.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMHe literally stated that he voted Latios212 at the end of the Day Phase and didn't actually want him lynched.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMNo, I did not.  I voted Dudeman to pressure him.  It's legitimately annoying me that people aren't understand this, so let me try to be lucid about this.
The primary purpose of the lynch vote is to place it on a Player you want to see lynched.  This purpose, however, has indirect consequences.  A pressure vote (I stated that my vote on Dudeman was a pressure vote, but it never needs to explicitly stated to be for pressure) is a vote made to declare that you're threatening to have the person lynched.  It's supposed to inspire fear in a Player and see how they react.  In the particular instance, I used it to instigate activity from Dudeman because I wanted to hear more from it.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMNow let me explain what distancing is.  Generally, Wolves don't want to be associated with each other.  So what they sometimes do is vote for each other without putting each other in danger of being lynched.  This is why I found it suspicious that Olimar12345 wanted to place a vote on Latios212 but not have him lynched.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMIt didn't (http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297495#msg297495), that was just a theory I had that I believed supported evidence.  And I still think it's potential, frankly.  Maybe I'm wrong, but regardless, I still found Olimar12345 suspicious.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMA last minute lynch isn't a dirty move.  In fact, having a last minute bandwagon form at the end of a Day Phase happens so often, there's even a name for it in TWG; Chinese Fire Drill.

Quote from: Mashi on July 15, 2015, 12:21:06 AMLatios212 was inactive in the game, but apparently active on the forum.  He couldn't defend himself because he wasn't putting in any work.
I never stated that Olimar12345 didn't have ample reason for voting for Latios212.  The factors around the vote are what I was suspicious of.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 06:41:35 PMMashi's not a wolf

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 06:47:21 PMhow many reasons do you want?

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:22:29 PM1. He stopped the bandwagon on brawler4ever. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg296550#msg296550

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:22:29 PM2. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297179#msg297179 – seems human in this chat
3. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297386#msg297386 – Seems even more human in this one; every argument made against him, he responded to very well, almost likes he's a wolf MASTERMIND at coming up with defense. Or maybe... maybe he's being honest?

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:22:29 PMI've been wrong about Mashi before, due to - wait for it - confirmation bias! So when I went through the thread and read every post of the players that are still alive and more, I accounted for that and still came up with the same result.

Literally just read his posts if you need actual logic. Or are you afraid of logic, since Mashi is apparently so good at being sensible that you guys believe he could make you think the sky was green?
Here's a pastebin (http://pastebin.com/phjz8h7E) with a link to most of his posts. You can ignore the earlier posts since most of that is arguing with davy.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:51:33 PM4. If Mashi were a wolf, why would he switch his vote off of Dudeman? You might think: Because it would be suspicious that he didn't change his vote when it was only supposed to be a pressure vote. However: Mashi already explained that if Dudeman was unable to give a sufficient explanation, then he would have kept his vote there.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:51:33 PM5. You: But he voted latios right before Olimar did, and didn't give his explanation as to why he suspected latios and maelstrom.
    A. He was discussing in the chat log who the wolves might be, most likely 2/5 people; prior to stating that list, he said his two preferences of those five people. Then Olimar went along with it.
    B. His suspicion of Olimar was strange? Look at this way: Mashi says he is thinking about a Latios or Maelstrom lynch. Olimar decides to vote Latios. Mashi votes Latios, then Olimar votes Latios, then Latios gets lynched. Then Olimar uses this as a reason to suspect Mashi, and I'm paraphrasing here: 'Why did you reverse bandwagon my vote? I don't think Latios was a good lynch.' See what's weird about that? It feels contrived, he votes Latios, and then suspects someone else for voting the same person, as if it was unexpected, even though Mashi brought up the idea in the first place. Sure, it could be a bad human play on Olimar's part, but Mashi's suspicion of Olimar is not unusual.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:51:33 PM6. Why would Mashi wolf Bubbles, even though Bubbles humanread him? I talked to Bubbles in the chat and I can confirm that he did humanread Mashi. They both humanread each other and I had no idea why; apparently they agreed with each other's reads.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 15, 2015, 07:51:33 PM7. Why would Mashi argue with davy about setting up an alliance if he believed it to be detrimental to the human team? "So he looks more human as a wolf!" Actually, if you were a wolf, you could be silent or ambivalent about it (kinda like Maelstrom) to allow the guardian to claim. Or, being a proactive player, he could even support the alliance under the guise of believing it to be helpful to the human team even if he believed otherwise.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 08, 2015, 07:16:57 PMI apologize for the late phase ending. However, the 9:00 PM is actually the more convenient time for me (tonight was a fluke) and as such, the phase will be roughly 47 hours instead of 48, unless anyone has any objections.

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 18, 2015, 11:52:20 AMSorry guys, I kinda hit a bout of depression because of irl stuff and wasn't motivated to do anything at all.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 03:10:19 PMBrawler4Ever

Because he's been tunneling me all game with a suspicion that's complete nonsense.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 03:10:19 PMI probably should have realised this before, but oh well.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMThroughout the game, you've never indicated a hint of wanting to find Wolves, only pushing lynches.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMYour suspicion of NoctuenOfShadow stemmed off of you being too timid to declare your suspicion; you made it clear when chatting to me that you only thought that he was a Wolf, which could have easily been taken for given.  I figured such timidity would be expected from a new Player that was a Human, but the other potential possibility was a Wolf too timid to draw the spotlight.  When I was brought up a chat conversation you had with Dudeman, your only interest was "what to pin Mashi with" rather than a thorough analysis of whether you believed I was Human or Wolf.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMWhen pressure developed on Olimar12345 and me Day 3, you placed a vote on Yugi and then only commented on believing Olimar12345 and me were Human, not bothering to push for a Yugi lynch, which would have been in line with your suspicions.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMIf you're a Wolf and both Olimar12345's wagon and my wagon were Human, it doesn't matter to you who dies.  In fact, a Wolf would rather keep me alive than Olimar12345 simply to push their suspicion on me, since more people were suspicious of me than of Olimar12345.  The fact that you decided to say you were starting to think I was Human that Phase only to do a 180 when convenient for you is in favor of suspicion against you, not evidence for your humanity.  In fact, if you were more suspicious of me than Olimar12345, the fact that you didn't vote for me is suspicious by most conventional TWG standards.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMIf I were a Wolf, I would have wolfed Jub3r7 a while ago since I thought he was Vigi (on that note, the Vigi was probably BlackDragonSlayer, by the way).  Here's a (very) messy log between Jub3r7 and I on Facebook.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMIf I were a Wolf, there would be no reason for me to have made the wolfing choices that have occurred in general.  Why would I have wolfed people who believed I was Human rather than people suspicious of me?  You can't even use the reverse psychology argument there because I would win more often doing the former than the latter!

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMYou're tunneling me because you're either being stupid as a Human or trying to push a mislynch as a Wolf.

Quote from: Mashi on July 18, 2015, 04:45:17 PMConsidering that Yugi is confirmed Human and I think Doodle is Human, it's clear which of the two I think now.

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM5. I could totally beat Brawler4Ever in Brawl!!!!!!!!!

Quote from: Brawler4Ever on July 19, 2015, 01:32:02 PM

Spoiler

Anime sucks.

[close]

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM1. If I were a Wolf, Brawler4Ever would be dead so that I wouldn't have to deal with him this Phase.  Jub3r7 was completely content with lynching Yugi.

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM2. The only Players that thought I was Human were wolfed.  Why would I be killing off people who would let me coast when I even told you that I wasn't feeling into the game?  Brawler4Ever would at least have the incentive of leaving suspicious Players alive to try to lynch me.

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM3. Brawler4Ever has only pushed suspicions to get lynches, not to find Wolves.

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM4. I've Human read Brawler4Ever for a majority of the game; I wouldn't be doing a 180 on him unless I actually believed he was a Wolf.

Quote from: Mashi on July 19, 2015, 01:11:08 PM5. I could totally beat Brawler4Ever in Brawl!!!!!!!!!

Quote from: Yugi on July 19, 2015, 11:20:05 PMI'll just vote for brawler since I don't like his defence as much-