</3 True Love </3Wolves:1. Wolf Lover
2. Wolf Lover
Town:3. Town Lover
4. Town Lover
5. Town Lover
6. Town Lover
7. Town Lover
8. Town Lover
Mechanics:
- </3Basically the setup True Love (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=True_Love)</3
- </3Every player is placed in groups of two as lovers. Wolves are guaranteed to be paired with town</3
- </3If a player is lynched, their lover dies as well</3
- </3The game is played nightless</3
- </3Town wins by killing all of the wolves, wolves win when they're 50% of remaining players</3
Role PMs:
Spoiler
You are a Town Lover. Your lover is _____, and if they die you will die as well. You win by eliminating all wolves.
You are a Wolf Lover. Your lover is _____, and if they die you will die as well. You win if wolves make up half the remaining players.
Players:
1.</3 BDS </3
2.</3 ThatHiddenCharacter </3
3.</3 SpecsFlyer17 </3
4.</3 Nakah </3
5.</3 Raeko </3
6.</3 TheZeldaPianist275 </3
7.</3 mastersuperfan </3
8. </3 Toby </3
Okay, game begins now! Sorry for posting it in the wrong forum initially. I can extend the deadline by a couple minutes in case anyone cares, but for now phase ends in 48 hours.
Just to be clear, we are allowed to talk to our lovers in DMs, right? (With the host included, of course.)
huzzah!
I haven't thought about the setup too too much but my first inclination is that it's beneficial for everyone to reveal their pairings...? since the wolves know each other, by default the wolves know 2 pairings for sure and can narrow down the remaining 4 players to 3 possible pairings. meanwhile humans start off knowing only their own lover, with I think 15 possible pairings among the remaining 6 players. so it seems to me like it's just best to reveal it all right away to ensure everyone has the same information.
I have thought briefly about whether there's some sort of information-sharing scheme where we could equalize everyone's information more without giving away everything to the wolves, but since the wolves start off with such a strict informational advantage, I'm skeptical such a scheme exists.
thoughts?
on the other hand maybe it's possible that if we keep it secret wolves accidentally slip up and reveal they know too much about the pairings? hmm
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 07, 2024, 06:30:10 PMJust to be clear, we are allowed to talk to our lovers in DMs, right? (With the host included, of course.)
Yes
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 07, 2024, 06:39:56 PMon the other hand maybe it's possible that if we keep it secret wolves accidentally slip up and reveal they know too much about the pairings? hmm
Personally, I think there's merit to the plan of everyone revealing their lover, but at the same time accidental slip-ups of wolves trying to defend the human lovers of *both* wolves is likely going to be a big part of the game. If we put everything on the table there's less chance of catching such slip-ups.
In contrast, I feel like humans might actually be inclined to lynch their own lover if they genuinely believe that lover could be a wolf.
Since it's a no-nights game, we're going to be relying a lot more on reading into dynamics like this.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 07, 2024, 06:48:26 PMPersonally, I think there's merit to the plan of everyone revealing their lover, but at the same time accidental slip-ups of wolves trying to defend the human lovers of *both* wolves is likely going to be a big part of the game. If we put everything on the table there's less chance of catching such slip-ups.
It's reasonable that a given player will defend their known partner in the interest of self-preservation, which as BDS mentioned, is one person per player. However, each wolf has 3 known players to guard: the other wolf, wolf 1's lover, and wolf 2's lover.
Keeping pairings hidden for the first day, noting who attempts to defend, then revealing pairings and seeing how peoples' defenses change could yield some information. Specifically if anyone defends multiple people across days.
Idk though.
Also worth noting that there's a 50% chance of eliminating a wolf D1; either directly or via their lover.
I think Spec's plan has a bit more merit to it than the others, but nothing that's been said so far seems particularly wolfy to me, either.
there are 6 humans. 4 are paired with other humans and 2 are paired with wolves. given uniformly random role distribution, from a human's point of view, there's a 2/6 = 1/3 chance you're paired with a wolf.
then:
- with 1/3 probability, your lover is a wolf. thus one other pair is human-wolf, and the remaining two pairs are human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 1/3 chance of killing a wolf.
- with 2/3 probability, your lover is a human. thus two other pairs are human-wolf, and the remaining pair is human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 2/3 chance of killing a wolf.
thus lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random, in total, has a 1/3 * 1/3 + 2/3 * 2/3 = 5/9 chance of killing a wolf.
tl;dr for humans:
- if you sacrifice your own pair, there's a 33.3% chance you kill a wolf
- if you sacrifice a different pair, there's a 55.6% chance you kill a wolf
so both humans and wolves have incentives to protect themselves day 1.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 07, 2024, 07:29:33 PMso both humans and wolves have incentives to protect themselves day 1.
(and their lover)
case 1: suppose a human-wolf pair gets lynched d1. then the remaining pairs are h-w, h-h, h-h. assuming all future lynches happen uniformly at random, there's a 1/3 chance that wolves win and a 2/3 chance that humans win.
case 2: suppose a human-human pair gets lynched d1. then the remaining pairs are h-w, h-w, h-h. then under the same assumptions there's a 2/3 chance that wolves win and a 1/3 chance that humans win.
then on d1, if you are a human and you get lynched, since your lover is a wolf with 1/3 probability, the probability you win is 1/3 * 2/3 (case 1) + 2/3 * 1/3 (case 2) = 4/9 = 44.4%. if you are a wolf and you get lynched, then the probability you win is 1/3 = 33.3% (only case 1).
in theory I think this means wolves have a stronger incentive to defend themselves than humans. I was initially toying with the idea of a human volunteering to sacrifice themselves, but since the win probabilities are 50/50 initially, a human volunteering to sacrifice themselves would still benefit the wolves, since the probability of humans winning would go down from 50% to 44.4%. so for a human's pov, the ideal play d1 is not to lynch themselves or their lover.
an exception being if you have sus on your lover and think they're a wolf.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 07, 2024, 07:05:23 PMIt's reasonable that a given player will defend their known partner in the interest of self-preservation, which as BDS mentioned, is one person per player. However, each wolf has 3 known players to guard: the other wolf, wolf 1's lover, and wolf 2's lover.
Keeping pairings hidden for the first day, noting who attempts to defend, then revealing pairings and seeing how peoples' defenses change could yield some information. Specifically if anyone defends multiple people across days.
Idk though.
this might be interesting. a priori (before accounting for sus), each human should only have an incentive to protect one player (other than themselves), and if they don't, their win rate goes down from 50% to 44.4%. wolves have an incentive to protect three players other than themselves, and if they don't, their win rate goes down from 50% to 33.3%.
looking at this from another angle: if a human in a h-h pair is on the chopping block, both humans (2/8 players) will be opposed. if a wolf or a wolf's lover is on the chopping block, both wolves + the involved human (3/8 players) will be opposed. that's almost half the players, and so if the remaining humans aren't well coordinated, wolves could steer it away pretty easily. (of course, the process of doing so might look suspicious, depending on how conspicuous it is.)
I think everyone has incentive to protect themselves and their lover just by nature of the game. You can't win if you don't survive. Even if you sus your lover, it's gonna be a tough one to lose the game for yourself for the benefit of your team
I agree with Spec. It will probably be a good idea to reveal pairs at some point in the future, but for right now I think getting reactions and noting relationships is a good idea
Human lean on MSF and Raeko so far. Neutral lean on Specs and THC so far. Personally, I like Specs' idea of waiting until the next day to reveal lovers (if we even do at all).
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 07, 2024, 07:57:56 PMHuman lean on MSF and Raeko so far. Neutral lean on Specs and THC so far. Personally, I like Specs' idea of waiting until the next day to reveal lovers (if we even do at all).
why a human lean on raeko but a neutral lean on Specs?
Quote from: raeko on March 07, 2024, 07:52:06 PMI think everyone has incentive to protect themselves and their lover just by nature of the game. You can't win if you don't survive. Even if you sus your lover, it's gonna be a tough one to lose the game for yourself for the benefit of your team
You can still win if you're dead as long as your team wins!
Personally if I genuinely believed my lover to be a wolf I don't think I'd hesitate to lynch them (highly depending on the circumstance though, and what other options are available), but at the same time I understand why others might be a lot more hesitant.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 07, 2024, 07:59:48 PMwhy a human lean on raeko but a neutral lean on Specs?
I got more genuine vibes from Raeko's first post compared to Specs'.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 07, 2024, 08:00:14 PMPersonally if I genuinely believed my lover to be a wolf I don't think I'd hesitate to lynch them (highly depending on the circumstance though, and what other options are available), but at the same time I understand why others might be a lot more hesitant.
As mastersuperfan pointed out, from a human's perspective there is a 1/3 chance they are paired with a wolf, 2/3 they are paired with a human. I'd have to be very confident that my partner is a wolf to risk the odds.
That, combined with the elaborate statistical rundown leads me to believe that self-preservation should not be seen negatively, at least for now.
The "If you were a human, you wouldn't be fighting so hard to save yourself as your partner could be a wolf" card shouldn't really have much weight.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 07, 2024, 08:00:14 PMYou can still win if you're dead as long as your team wins!
Personally if I genuinely believed my lover to be a wolf I don't think I'd hesitate to lynch them (highly depending on the circumstance though, and what other options are available), but at the same time I understand why others might be a lot more hesitant.
Technically you win if your team wins, but you
really win when you survive to end game ;)
MSF seemed to come on a little strong by posting right away the suggestion that everyone reveal their lovers. But it is possible they were just fishing for reactions and generating discussion, or thinking out loud to the thread. Not necessarily wolfy but just noting...
Everyone else is pretty neutral so far
Quote from: raeko on March 07, 2024, 10:14:59 PMMSF seemed to come on a little strong by posting right away the suggestion that everyone reveal their lovers. But it is possible they were just fishing for reactions and generating discussion, or thinking out loud to the thread. Not necessarily wolfy but just noting...
I don't think that's a bad thing in this sort of game. We don't have any information to go on yet and we have to lynch someone (I'm assuming No Lynch isn't an option?). If anything the discussion stemming from it has been our first major info of the game.
OH BOI look at meee I'm in looOoUwUoove!! Here I go lovin' again!
I don't have much more to say on top of all of the strategy logic that has already been explained, but I do agree that it seems more fun and also beneficial to keep the knowledge of lover parainings 'up in the air' until there is something fishy/inclining for someone to sense and call out...
I suppose I would just ask a direct question(yet lightly) to stir things:
Do any of you guys feel that MasterSuperFun's first post that broke the ice with that meta strategy was a bit quick to the punch? Should we find it suspicipus that he made it a point to declare things that way first with such enthusiasm? I wonder...
Are cardflips on ??
Part of me feels like if we aren't revealing lovers with the idea to try sus out those who have extra information, we are going to start being suspicious of anyone who starts defending people.
I think master super fans plan is fine. I also don't mind waiting a phase before we reveal to see a contrast
Quote from: Nakah on March 08, 2024, 12:49:21 AMDo any of you guys feel that MasterSuperFun's first post that broke the ice with that meta strategy was a bit quick to the punch? Should we find it suspicipus that he made it a point to declare things that way first with such enthusiasm? I wonder...
I don't, personally. It
does feel a bit strange to me that you and Raeko seem to be pushing the same/similar point about MSF though.
@Oricorio rule clarification, is full OC allowed or just lover's chat and wolf chat?
Quote from: Oricorio on March 07, 2024, 06:00:39 PMYou are a Wolf Lover. Your lover is _____, and if they die you will die as well. You win if wolves make up half the remaining players.
Is this role PM accurate or do wolves also get told who the other wolf is somewhere
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 07, 2024, 07:05:23 PMIt's reasonable that a given player will defend their known partner in the interest of self-preservation, which as BDS mentioned, is one person per player. However, each wolf has 3 known players to guard: the other wolf, wolf 1's lover, and wolf 2's lover.
Im going to place a vote on
SpecsI think starting the game off with his first post being inside the mind of a wolf is a bit sus. Maybe his only perspective is a wolves perspective
Quote from: Toby on March 08, 2024, 06:20:58 AMIm going to place a vote on Specs
I think starting the game off with his first post being inside the mind of a wolf is a bit sus. Maybe his only perspective is a wolves perspective
I disagree, I have a slight townread on Specs. I think his posts have been the most helpful so far and I don't think it's strange for a human to be thinking from that angle.
light sus on raeko and Nakah. not because they called me out in particular, but because their first posts each came across as somewhat vacuous and parrot-y to me. I would like to see some more concrete reasoning on why you agree with previous posts that we should wait to reveal instead of revealing now.
none of this sus is very strong. I would still feel comfortable voting for Specs, if not for the possibility that Toby could be a wolf who's trying to get an early push on a human-human pair. perhaps it would be a little ballsy for a wolf to do so, but not implausible. if I can feel relatively okay that Toby is human (moreso than others) I don't think Specs is an unreasonable vote.
it will be hard to distinguish between human sus and wolf pushes in this game. if a human is too stubborn about their sus it could be seen as wolfy, but if a human is too quick to change then they can be manipulated by the wolves. seems tough
not convinced that we shouldn't reveal before the end of d1. will think more on why
let's turn the heat up.
Specs
Nakah coming in and sheeping my read is noted
I like Toby's vote on Specs and I think the logic makes sense. Not sure if Toby's post about wolves knowing who the other wolf is was supposed to be a possible dumb tell?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 06:57:56 AMnot convinced that we shouldn't reveal before the end of d1. will think more on why
I still don't think we want to reveal so early, but I am willing to hear you out if you think more on it and feel like explaining
Why is Specs being voted? Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though), and I don't see him having posted anything suspicious. If anything, I find raeko and Toby to be a bit suspicious. raeko's posts feel a bit like fluff, and Toby made a vote in only his third post, giving only one reason as to why. Out of those two, Toby definitely feels more sus to me, but I'm keeping my eye on both of them.
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 08:02:16 AMI like Toby's vote on Specs and I think the logic makes sense. Not sure if Toby's post about wolves knowing who the other wolf is was supposed to be a possible dumb tell?
No im aware the wolves know eachother,
I was just curious to know why it wasn't included in the role PM, mostly because I'm curious if Wolf A is told in their role PM on who Wolf B's lover is
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AMWhy is Specs being voted? Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though), and I don't see him having posted anything suspicious. If anything, I find raeko and Toby to be a bit suspicious. raeko's posts feel a bit like fluff, and Toby made a vote in only his third post, giving only one reason as to why. Out of those two, Toby definitely feels more sus to me, but I'm keeping my eye on both of them.
someone has to get the ball rolling, don't they?
THC, who do you read as town?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 09:57:59 AMsomeone has to get the ball rolling, don't they?
THC, who do you read as town?
who else* besides Specs
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 05:23:01 AM@Oricorio rule clarification, is full OC allowed or just lover's chat and wolf chat?
Full OC allowed
Current votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (Toby, mastersuperfan)
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AMWhy is Specs being voted? Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though), and I don't see him having posted anything suspicious. If anything, I find raeko and Toby to be a bit suspicious. raeko's posts feel a bit like fluff, and Toby made a vote in only his third post, giving only one reason as to why. Out of those two, Toby definitely feels more sus to me, but I'm keeping my eye on both of them.
Fair enough, I think everyone's posts feel a bit fluffy at the moment as it's only the first phase and there hasn't been much to comment on
Do you find Toby's vote on Specs to be suspicious? Or is it the fact that they voted in general?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 09:57:59 AMTHC, who do you read as town?
Well, it was you, BDS, and Specs, but since you jumped on the Specs vote right after claiming you have a slight townread on Specs, I'm no longer sure about you. All three of you were stimulating conversation by bringing up plans/ideas, none of which seemed particularly sus either. But now it's really just BDS and Specs for me (for now, I believe some people still haven't spoken).
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 10:28:06 AMDo you find Toby's vote on Specs to be suspicious? Or is it the fact that they voted in general?
A bit of both. The context behind the vote, being his third post with only one admittedly flimsy reasoning for it, is suspicious in and of itself. Adding that to the fact that I feel Specs is the least suspicious person for now, it just doesn't sit well with me. I don't plan on voting until I get a reply from him, though. He has posted since I mentioned it, but conveniently completely ignored my post. Also doesn't sit well with me.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 07, 2024, 06:48:26 PMPersonally, I think there's merit to the plan of everyone revealing their lover, but at the same time accidental slip-ups of wolves trying to defend the human lovers of *both* wolves is likely going to be a big part of the game. If we put everything on the table there's less chance of catching such slip-ups.
Accidentally quoted without typing above there.
My post did involve wolf perspective as Toby pointed out, but I was compounding on BDSs comment above about how the wolves would need to consider protecting multiple players.
Hey everyone! Sorry to have missed the first bits of discussion. Raeko and MSF welcome back, it's been a few years since I've played with you!
Re: the lover discussion, I think I disagree with the consensus that it's to our advantage to keep that information to ourselves. I think it's noteworthy that the wolves have to steer the mislynch vote away from a full half of the lobby. In a usual game the wolves have a much greater margin of error for who can be lynched without it being disadvantageous for them. If we are essentially choosing between 4 lynch candidates rather than 8, it becomes much harder for them to hide, and knowing who goes down with who as a package deal frees up info for the discussion. I do see the appeal though of keeping that info quiet to try to trap people into disingenuous pushes, so I'm open to being persuaded, I suppose.
I've also never played a day-only game lol, this is gonna feel strange, even more than day-start games. Right now I'm human-leaning MSF for a pretty aggressive reaction test on Specs.
Also Nakah, damn, how does it feel playing here after starting this 16 (!) years ago?
re: why I think we should reveal before the end of d1:
I'm inclined to agree with what TZP says here (notable part bolded):
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 08, 2024, 11:30:00 AMRe: the lover discussion, I think I disagree with the consensus that it's to our advantage to keep that information to ourselves. I think it's noteworthy that the wolves have to steer the mislynch vote away from a full half of the lobby. In a usual game the wolves have a much greater margin of error for who can be lynched without it being disadvantageous for them. If we are essentially choosing between 4 lynch candidates rather than 8, it becomes much harder for them to hide, and knowing who goes down with who as a package deal frees up info for the discussion. I do see the appeal though of keeping that info quiet to try to trap people into disingenuous pushes, so I'm open to being persuaded, I suppose.
I think the other thing on my mind is that if we don't know the pairs, then someone defending someone else could be misinterpreted as a wolfy play (i.e. a wolf protecting their wolf partner or wolf partner's lover) when it might actually just be a human protecting their own lover. but in that case, maybe they could just reveal their lover relationship on the spot to clarify why they're being protective?
at least I think that if you're a human, and your lover is on the chopping block, and you don't think they're especially sus and you think you yourself are townread, it might be advantageous to reveal your relationship in the interest of self-preservation (which, as previously discussed, is something I think both humans and wolves would want to do d1).
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 11:58:10 AMI think the other thing on my mind is that if we don't know the pairs, then someone defending someone else could be misinterpreted as a wolfy play (i.e. a wolf protecting their wolf partner or wolf partner's lover) when it might actually just be a human protecting their own lover. but in that case, maybe they could just reveal their lover relationship on the spot to clarify why they're being protective?
The idea was humans have an incentive to defend only one other player (their lover), while wolves have an incentive to defend up to three (their lover, their partner, and their partner's lover). That being said, it may be difficult to keep track of if some people aren't accused of much.
Revealing towards the back half of D1 would at least give us some concrete data on who defended whom because of lover pairs.
Specs, what are your reads?
Toby: Obviously I don't love the vote on me, and I don't think it's a great argument for the reason I've already posted.
THC: Seemed quick to defend me once he saw I had two votes. While I appreciate the defense from a self-preservation standpoint, it could be wolf!THC trying to protect one if the wolves' lovers. Slight suspicion for the quick jump to defend, but it's just a hunch.
TZP: One post about how claiming D1 has benefits. Not a whole lot to read from it. It disagreed with my original plan but I'm willing ton consider the validity of it.
BDS: Posts have seemed fairly human-oriented. Nothing jumps out at me atm.
MSF: I appreciated the detailed statistical rundown, although wolves are capable of mechanical posting to earn points. That being said, I don't really have a reason to think it's not genuine. The second vote on me is likely a reaction test so I'm not going to read too deeply yet.
Nakah: Can't argue the parroting, so a little suspicion but it's not like there was a ton to talk about. Still, definitely a data point to consider.
Raeko: Claimed to like Toby's reasoning for voting me, with I naturally disagree with. Could be genuine, could be using the opportunity to bandwagon on someone who isn't a wolf/wolf's lover. Just a possibility, but a slight suspicion.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 08, 2024, 01:31:21 PMMSF: I appreciated the detailed statistical rundown, although wolves are capable of mechanical posting to earn points. That being said, I don't really have a reason to think it's not genuine. The second vote on me is likely a reaction test so I'm not going to read too deeply yet.
Although I don't read you as particularly wolfy, I would be okay with you being lynched, for reasons I'll explain later.
Toby, do you still stand by your vote on Specs?
@Oricorio echoing Toby's earlier question, rule clarification — are cardflips on?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 05:25:49 PM@Oricorio echoing Toby's earlier question, rule clarification — are cardflips on?
No
Catching up now. Gonna go page by page for my posts.
Quote from: Toby on March 08, 2024, 06:20:58 AMIm going to place a vote on Specs
I think starting the game off with his first post being inside the mind of a wolf is a bit sus. Maybe his only perspective is a wolves perspective
Interesting point. I don't necessarily disagree with you there. My issue with his post was that his second sentence you quoted was basically just saying what I said except more clearly (which, again, isn't always a bad thing, just a bit sketch).
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 06:48:00 AMlight sus on raeko and Nakah. not because they called me out in particular, but because their first posts each came across as somewhat vacuous and parrot-y to me. I would like to see some more concrete reasoning on why you agree with previous posts that we should wait to reveal instead of revealing now.
I do agree that it seems weird that Nakah and Raeko were seemingly mindmelding. It's possible they're lovers who discussed an MSF suspicion behind the scenes, or wolf partners who decided to push a contrarian thread.
Votecount remains unchanged from last update! You have a little over 24 hours remaining!
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 08:02:16 AMNakah coming in and sheeping my read is noted
How do you feel about Nakah sheeping
your read in particular? Any suggestions as to why Nakah may have done that, from your perspective?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AMWhy is Specs being voted? Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though), and I don't see him having posted anything suspicious. If anything, I find raeko and Toby to be a bit suspicious. raeko's posts feel a bit like fluff, and Toby made a vote in only his third post, giving only one reason as to why. Out of those two, Toby definitely feels more sus to me, but I'm keeping my eye on both of them.
Out of curiosity, why is Specs your
highest townread? It does feel a bit weird for you to be criticizing votes at this point of the game; in games like this we absolutely need to start early.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 10:42:44 AMWell, it was you, BDS, and Specs, but since you jumped on the Specs vote right after claiming you have a slight townread on Specs, I'm no longer sure about you. All three of you were stimulating conversation by bringing up plans/ideas, none of which seemed particularly sus either. But now it's really just BDS and Specs for me (for now, I believe some people still haven't spoken).
Personally I think the Specs votes are fine. I'm not planning to vote for Specs at the moment but it's something I could potentially be convinced of down the line depending on how things play out. It doesn't exactly strike me positively that you're criticizing the Specs votes
just because he's your highest townread, especially when others (including myself) have expressed differing opinions on Specs.
Re: TZP/MSF discussion at the end of page 3
I was against revealing lover pairs early in the phase because I think it gave the human team more to work with in terms of interpreting people's reactions but I'm not wholly against revealing the information later in the phase (though we're getting close to 24 hours left in the phase so we might be reaching that "later in the phase" point already.
Nothing else to say about page 4's content so far, so a quick update of my reads:
ThatHiddenCharacter: neutral-leaning wolf
SpecsFlyer17: neutral
Nakah: leaning wolf
Raeko: neutral-leaning human
TheZeldaPianist275: neutral
mastersuperfan: leaning human
Toby: neutral-leaning human
THC's reaction to the Specs vote feels a bit weird based on his reasoning for opposing it, as if he's assuming that everyone else thinks Specs is human too. Could possibly be a lover reaction, but feels more like a wolfy reaction for the time being. If Specs isn't a wolf he could be the human lover of a wolf.
Based on their exchange at the end of page 3 I think TZP/MSF is a possible wolf pair though unlikely. Feels like this post by MSF (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12913.msg441251#msg441251) was a setup for TZP to come in and make this post supporting release of lover info. I still believe that revealing the lover info too early would benefit the wolves more since it makes it more difficult for humans to judge reactions.
Between Raeko and Nakah I still think Raeko is the more human of the two, so I feel comfortable placing a vote for Nakah at the moment. I'm curious to hear more of Nakah's original reads. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12913.msg441267#msg441267)
guess who has two thumbs and forgot to type [/url] after the second link in the post
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 05:55:30 PMNothing else to say about page 4's content so far, so a quick update of my reads:
ThatHiddenCharacter: neutral-leaning wolf
SpecsFlyer17: neutral
Nakah: leaning wolf
Raeko: neutral-leaning human
TheZeldaPianist275: neutral
mastersuperfan: leaning human
Toby: neutral-leaning human
THC's reaction to the Specs vote feels a bit weird based on his reasoning for opposing it, as if he's assuming that everyone else thinks Specs is human too. Could possibly be a lover reaction, but feels more like a wolfy reaction for the time being. If Specs isn't a wolf he could be the human lover of a wolf.
Based on their exchange at the end of page 3 I think TZP/MSF is a possible wolf pair though unlikely. Feels like this post by MSF (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12913.msg441251#msg441251) was a setup for TZP to come in and make this post supporting release of lover info. I still believe that revealing the lover info too early would benefit the wolves more since it makes it more difficult for humans to judge reactions.
Between Raeko and Nakah I still think Raeko is the more human of the two, so I feel comfortable placing a vote for Nakah at the moment. I'm curious to hear more of Nakah's original reads.
(https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12913.msg441267#msg441267)
Raeko and Nakah...? Did you mean THC and Nakah?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 08, 2024, 05:56:57 PMRaeko and Nakah...? Did you mean THC and Nakah?
No. Raeko and Nakah because they both expressed the same/similar opinion about you.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 05:46:40 PMHow do you feel about Nakah sheeping your read in particular? Any suggestions as to why Nakah may have done that, from your perspective?
Because we are close friends, he usually tries to mess with me in werewolf games somehow or uses his PR powers on me >_> or sheeps me
Either that or he wasn't paying that much attention and just reacted to the first thing he saw within the first few posts, without realizing that I had already said the same thing
If we legitimately just mind melded and he did read my post then it's kinda weird that he would bring it up as if it was an original thought without acknowledging my post.
Regardless of why I would like to see more from him before I come to a conclusion. A single post is hard to make a read from
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 07, 2024, 07:29:33 PMthere are 6 humans. 4 are paired with other humans and 2 are paired with wolves. given uniformly random role distribution, from a human's point of view, there's a 2/6 = 1/3 chance you're paired with a wolf.
then:
- with 1/3 probability, your lover is a wolf. thus one other pair is human-wolf, and the remaining two pairs are human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 1/3 chance of killing a wolf.
- with 2/3 probability, your lover is a human. thus two other pairs are human-wolf, and the remaining pair is human-human. then lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random has a 2/3 chance of killing a wolf.
thus lynching one of the other 3 pairs at random, in total, has a 1/3 * 1/3 + 2/3 * 2/3 = 5/9 chance of killing a wolf.
tl;dr for humans:
- if you sacrifice your own pair, there's a 33.3% chance you kill a wolf
- if you sacrifice a different pair, there's a 55.6% chance you kill a wolf
so both humans and wolves have incentives to protect themselves day 1.
This was nagging at me earlier this afternoon. I don't think your math is quite right here MSF
From the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair
I understand where you're coming from though, and I gotta say I'm no good on combinatorics.
@threalmathguy WYA
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 05:46:40 PMIt doesn't exactly strike me positively that you're criticizing the Specs votes just because he's your highest townread, especially when others (including myself) have expressed differing opinions on Specs.
That was absolutely not my only reason, and I even specified that it was the less important reason. My main reason was because it was Toby's third post, and he only gave one reason that didn't even feel like a good reason to place a vote so quickly. I understand voting is important in a day-only game like this, but that doesn't mean we have to rush votes out in the first half of the phase. And I didn't like msf's vote because he had said only a couple posts before that he was slightly leaning town on Specs, then basically just jumped on Toby's vote with what basically amounted to a "YEET!". Now, I fully recognize that it could just be a reaction test, which is why it only brought msf to a neutral lean for me.
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 06:50:36 PMBecause we are close friends, he usually tries to mess with me in werewolf games somehow or uses his PR powers on me >_> or sheeps me
Either that or he wasn't paying that much attention and just reacted to the first thing he saw within the first few posts, without realizing that I had already said the same thing
That's certainly an interesting bit of information and does make me hesitate for a bit. Though, I'm still planning on keeping my vote on Nakah until we hear more.
QuoteIf we legitimately just mind melded and he did read my post then it's kinda weird that he would bring it up as if it was an original thought without acknowledging my post.
Regardless of why I would like to see more from him before I come to a conclusion. A single post is hard to make a read from
True, which is why I don't think you two would be wolves together—assuming he's a wolf, it seems more like Nakah trying either get a human lover lynched or possibly direct attention
away from a human wolf lover (that is, a human paired with a wolf).
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AMSpecs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though)
I would also just lime to bring attention to this, the bolded part in particular. I specified that he's my highest townread only by a small margin, but people keep referring to it like I was calling him the patron saint of townreads. I wouldn't hesitate to change my mind if I started seeing him act suspicious, I just feel he hasn't said anything suspicious yet.
To put my suspicions into a succinct list:
Specs Townlean: As I said, nothing has jumped out at me as suspicious. Has added a lot to the conversation, and seems to be in the best interest of town. I don't think reiterating what someone else has said, as long as it's putting it in a more succinct and easy-to-understand way, is suspicious.
BDS Townlean: It really peeves me when I respond to an accusation or make an accusation and the person in question makes a post(s) and completely ignores mine. However, everything else from you seems on the up and up, so I'm willing to look past it for you for now.
msf neutral: As I said before, I initially was townleaning msf for the same reasons as BDS and Specs. Their posts seem intended to help town and they've been very active (non-fluff) in discussion. However, the vote on Specs, while it could just be a reaction test, doesn't sit well with me. It feels more like a bandwagon than a reaction test. Not enough to make me fully sus, but enough to drop down to neutral.
TZP neutral: I believe he only has one post so far? I'm at work, so I can only look at what's on the current page. The post was just calling out msf for math stuff (I believe msf did have the math right, btw, since you exclude your own pairing in the math, meaning it wouldn't be a 50/50), but not really anything substantial enough to get a read. Btw, math isn't in this game, TZP.
raeko/Nakah ??: I honestly haven't even been able to make much sense of their posts. Specifically raeko. I think I'd go full neutral for Nakah just for lack of posts to read, and neutral-slightwolf for raeko because of my notes about fluffy posts from them still seeming to be the case. They keep pointing out things claiming to "note" them, but not really elaborate.
Toby slight-wolflean: I've already given my reasons for not trusting Toby. Plus what I mentioned in my BDS section. Toby posted shortly after I accused him, but never acknowledged it. It's not enough to make me certain of wolfishness or anything, but he's definitely my top contender to vote for. I'm waiting until just before I go to bed today to put my vote in. It'll definitely be well before phase change.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 10:51:14 PMraeko/Nakah ??: I honestly haven't even been able to make much sense of their posts. Specifically raeko. I think I'd go full neutral for Nakah just for lack of posts to read, and neutral-slightwolf for raeko because of my notes about fluffy posts from them still seeming to be the case. They keep pointing out things claiming to "note" them, but not really elaborate.
why are we connected together ;_;
When you say "their" do you mean both of us? or who do you mean? you can call me she/her btw
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 11:38:16 PMWhen you say "their" do you mean both of us? or who do you mean? you can call me she/her btw
I was referring to you, I didn't want to make any assumptions. Thank you for specifying what to use!
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 11:38:16 PMwhy are we connected together ;_;
When I started that line, I thought I had no thoughts on either of you, but as I kept typing, I realized I could have put you two separate without the question marks. But I'm at work and I didn't have time to adjust it.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 10:51:14 PMIt really peeves me when I respond to an accusation or make an accusation and the person in question makes a post(s) and completely ignores mine.
I hope this doesn't come across as rude, I only me tonight it since I feel it gives important context to my views on players.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:43:41 PMThat was absolutely not my only reason, and I even specified that it was the less important reason. My main reason was because it was Toby's third post, and he only gave one reason that didn't even feel like a good reason to place a vote so quickly. I understand voting is important in a day-only game like this, but that doesn't mean we have to rush votes out in the first half of the phase. And I didn't like msf's vote because he had said only a couple posts before that he was slightly leaning town on Specs, then basically just jumped on Toby's vote with what basically amounted to a "YEET!". Now, I fully recognize that it could just be a reaction test, which is why it only brought msf to a neutral lean for me.
Re: Toby thing, personally, I don't think that makes much of a difference for me (overall, I'd rather votes get thrown out early rather than later, especially when those votes have a high chance of not being final votes), though I can kinda see why that might stand out to you. Other than that I'm not sure what you said changes my view of your reaction at all.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 10:23:27 PMI would also just lime to bring attention to this, the bolded part in particular. I specified that he's my highest townread only by a small margin, but people keep referring to it like I was calling him the patron saint of townreads. I wouldn't hesitate to change my mind if I started seeing him act suspicious, I just feel he hasn't said anything suspicious yet.
My impressions were based on your reaction to the votes on Specs, which struck me as a bit disproportionately strong.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 01:05:00 AMMy impressions were based on your reaction to the votes on Specs, which struck me as a bit disproportionately strong.
It's only strong because there are two people voting for someone that I don't really see as being sus, both without giving much in the way of reasons. If even one of those factors were different, I wouldn't have fought it nearly as hard, if at all. Like I said, I'd be more than happy to vote Specs if I believed there was good reason to. And there is certainly still plenty of time for that to end up being the case.
In the meantime, just so I don't forget to later, I'm placing my vote on
Toby.
@Oricorio If there's a tie, does it go to a KitB?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 08, 2024, 09:38:09 PMThis was nagging at me earlier this afternoon. I don't think your math is quite right here MSF
From the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair
I understand where you're coming from though, and I gotta say I'm no good on combinatorics. @threalmathguy WYA
it's not even odds. conditional on being a human, you're twice as likely to be in a h-h relationship than in a h-w relationship, because 50% of the time in a h-w relationship you're not human at all
another way to think of it is that there are 6 humans, 4 of whom have human partners and 2 of whom have wolf lovers. if roles are distributed uniformly at random you are equally likely to be any one of these 6 humans, so 4/6 of the time you're paired with a human and 2/6 of the time with a wolf.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 08, 2024, 09:38:09 PMFrom the perspective of any given human, 2 of the pairs are h/h and 2 are h/w. So it's even odds, which Oricorio alluded to by pointing out in signups that this game has perfectly 50/50 EV. It doesn't make sense for there to be a greater likelihood of hitting a wolf if you aim away from your pair—there's only 4 possible lynch options, and you're either in a wolf pair or a human pair
it's 50/50 EV because if the lynch kills one of the four pairs uniformly at random, there's a 50/50 chance of it being a h-h pair vs. a h-w pair, but from
your perspective if you're human (and every other human's perspective), you're more likely to hit a wolf by lynching a different pair. thus
every pair is incentivized to aim away from itself, but it's not possible for every pair to do this, because
some pair is going to get voted.
yes there's essentially 4 possible lynch options, but from human pov, your pair is more likely to be h-h than h-w, because half the time you're in a h-w relationship you wouldn't have been given the human role in the first place.
anyway, we have about 14 hours left in phase, so here's where I'm at:
wolfyTHC: it looks like I may not the only one to be coming to this conclusion, which makes me a little iffy on whether I'm unknowingly joining a behind-the-scenes wolf push on him. but THC's behavior has really been bothering me. his first page posts were kinda vacuous and empty, fine, okay. what bothers me is that since then he has been playing the entire game defensively. on some level this is expected when we've been criticizing him / asking him questions, but he's pretty stubborn on talking
only about the view he keeps pushing (namely, that Toby = wolfy and me = no longer towny, which he has emphasized in at least three posts; also his repeated sus of raeko for having fluffy posts) and not on generating any other discussion. and I think others have pointed out some pretty good reasons why they don't see the Specs votes as particularly sus or why THC's behavior is a little strange, and instead of updating his position or acknowledging that any of it makes sense he's consistently justifying and explaining his position.
slight wolf leanNakah: pls talk more, your first message doesn't leave a great impression
neutralSpecs: started off with a few good posts, contributions since them have been a bit sparse and surface-level. none of this is unreasonable for either a human or a wolf to say, I think.
TZP: only posted twice on mechanistic / strategy things without really getting involved in the broader sus discussions happening. incorrect math assertion makes me a little sus and could be a wolf misleading but I would guess it's genuine. would like to see more of your thoughts on players so far
raeko: I do agree with a THC a little that her posts could be more thorough, but I don't wolfread her for this (and I think it's a lil strange you keep emphasizing this, THC!). not at all defensive or stubborn, which I think is a good look. that said I would like to see more from you
slight town leanBDS: posts have been helpful for town, generating good discussion on some interesting points (the raeko/Nakah mindmeld, THC's response to Specs votes, and other miscellaneous theories like me/TZP wolf). his behavior generally strikes me as genuine and not driven by ulterior motives on trying to get a lynch on someone in particular — unless he's a wolf and THC belongs to a human-human pair, but he's not pushing THC overly strongly and I'm also sus of THC, so.
townyToby: his early vote on Specs strikes me as human — I'm not sure a wolf would be so confident as to throw out the first vote onto a human-human pair based on minimal reasoning from the get-go, as it might make them stand out more — which is why I was confident joining Toby even though I didn't wolfread Specs, because if Toby is human and I am human then I think there would be a good chance that lynching Specs' pair would take down a wolf. the other reason I've continued to townread Toby is this:
Quote from: Toby on March 08, 2024, 06:17:57 AMIs this role PM accurate or do wolves also get told who the other wolf is somewhere
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 08:02:16 AMI like Toby's vote on Specs and I think the logic makes sense. Not sure if Toby's post about wolves knowing who the other wolf is was supposed to be a possible dumb tell?
Quote from: Toby on March 08, 2024, 09:16:40 AMNo im aware the wolves know eachother,
I was just curious to know why it wasn't included in the role PM, mostly because I'm curious if Wolf A is told in their role PM on who Wolf B's lover is
Toby's reaction struck for a few reasons. one, I think what raeko meant by the dumb tell (or at least, how I read it) is that Toby was playing dumb about whether the real role PM matched the template in the OP (which wolf!Toby would know the answer to). instead, though, Toby interpreted raeko's comment as a dumb tell about whether the wolves know each other at all. I think if Toby were a wolf and dumbtelling he wouldn't have responded that way, because he would have known he was playing dumb about whether the role PM matched the template
two, I find it strange that he checked the templates because he was curious about whether the wolves' role PMs told them their wolf partner's lover. I wouldn't expect this to be the case at all, and if he were a wolf I think that reason would have been too weird to use to explain why he checked the role PMs. instead it strikes me as a human genuinely trying to solve
---
With all that said,
THC. I don't like your closed-mindedness and it strikes me as a wolf trying to push for the lynches they want rather than a human trying to solve the game.
I would still be comfortable voting Specs, but it doesn't seem like sentiment will go that way this round
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 10:51:14 PMSpecs Townlean: As I said, nothing has jumped out at me as suspicious. Has added a lot to the conversation, and seems to be in the best interest of town. I don't think reiterating what someone else has said, as long as it's putting it in a more succinct and easy-to-understand way, is suspicious.
by the time you've posted this Specs has not been contributing to the conversation all that much anymore...
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:04:44 AMbut he's pretty stubborn
I mean, yes. That's me in a nutshell. I play that way regardless of my alignment. If I believe something, I will defend it no matter what. Plus, it's hard not to default to the defensive when every game people think I'm sus just for playing the way I play in every game. At some point, I feel like it should be obvious that I just play a way that can be seen as suspicious, and I wish people would actually notice the things I do differently as wolf!THC because there
are differences.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:00:52 AMI wish people would actually notice the things I do differently as wolf!THC
???
I also can't help but notice you seem to be plastering my name in almost everyone's sections on your suspicion list, which feels like overkill if you were a townie that was convinced I'm a wolf. Feels more like trying to sway others into believing that narrative.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:02:42 AM???
As in, people always think I'm sus because of how I play. But they always point out the things I do regardless of alignment. Never things I do only as a wolf.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:06:13 AMAs in, people always think I'm sus because of how I play. But they always point out the things I do regardless of alignment. Never things I do only as a wolf.
At a certain point, it gets very old being a prime lynch candidate in every game for the same reasons every time.
THC, do you think Toby and I are wolf partners together?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:22:38 AMTHC, do you think Toby and I are wolf partners together?
No. I actually think you are lovers.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:23:19 AMNo. I actually think you are lovers.
I'll come out and say that we're not.
Does this change anything for you?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:24:14 AMI'll come out and say that we're not.
Does this change anything for you?
Not particularly. I don't fully believe you're a wolf, but I still find it odd how hard you're pushing me right now (like I said, my name appears at least half a dozen times in your suspicion list). I still don't trust Toby, but to be fair, I think I never trust Toby. I doubt I'll be changing my vote before phase end unless something big happens, though.
THC, from your perspective it probably seems reasonable to assume that neither Toby nor I is Specs' lover. from my perspective, it seems reasonable to assume you're not Specs' lover (based on what Specs said in response to your defense), and if you are, I think you should consider saying so because it will make me and possibly others less sus of you.
THC, other than a little comment from Specs himself in his readslist (and even then, not an explicit sus), nobody else seems to be particularly sussing Toby right now. I would guess that he's not going to be an especially notable lynch target this round. on the other hand, I think there's a pretty decent chance you end up today's lynching.
so if you, me, Toby, and Specs indeed all belong to different pairs: if Toby's pair isn't going to be lynched this round, which of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead? if you know you're innocent, and you think Specs is town, and you don't think I'm Toby's wolf partner, I don't see a particularly strong reason for you to fight so hard against lynching Specs' pair. would you be onboard with lynching Specs' pair today if it stopped you from being lynched?
---
someone else please do let me know if I'm tunneling. brain is slowly turning into mush
---
I agree with BDS that we're perhaps already at the point where we should reveal lover pairings. I suspect there's a good chance wolves have figured all the pairings out and I'm worried about their ability to use this information to push for a mislynch. and as TZP said, I think it would be nice to know who goes down with whom...
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:49:37 AMI agree with BDS that we're perhaps already at the point where we should reveal lover pairings. I suspect there's a good chance wolves have figured all the pairings out and I'm worried about their ability to use this information to push for a mislynch. and as TZP said, I think it would be nice to know who goes down with whom...
I also think we should reveal because I'm worried that we're going to spread out the votes too much over 8 candidates and allow the wolves to decide the outcome easily, whereas we could better consolidate if we knew that voting for two particular players would actually be voting for the same pair.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:49:37 AMso if you, me, Toby, and Specs indeed all belong to different pairs: if Toby's pair isn't going to be lynched this round, which of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead? if you know you're innocent, and you think Specs is town, and you don't think I'm Toby's wolf partner, I don't see a particularly strong reason for you to fight so hard against lynching Specs' pair. would you be onboard with lynching Specs' pair today if it stopped you from being lynched?
I semi take this back because I think you could use the same argument to argue that I should be okay voting Toby, which may be true
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:49:37 AMwhich of the other three pairs (mine, Specs', or yours) would you rather lynch instead?
Probably mine. Knowing my luck, I wouldn't be surprised if I got paired with a wolf. I don't have enough suspicion on my lover to make that call as of yet, though. I'd still like to wait until closer to phase end before making any rash decisions.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 01:27:29 AMIn the meantime, just so I don't forget to later, I'm placing my vote on Toby.
@Oricorio If there's a tie, does it go to a KitB?
Yes
Current votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Toby: 1 (ThatHiddenCharacter)
ThatHiddenCharacter: 1 (mastersuperfan)
I'd like to analyze the negative reactions to people gaining votes, if any.
When I received two votes THC was really the only person to defend. Everyone else just watched for the most part. Now, that could mean he's defending his lover, defending a wolf partner, or defending a wolf partner's lover. I'll say that 1 and 2 aren't true, and 3 would be extremely bold given all we've talked about defending.
BDS threw a vote on Nakah, and there wasn't a whole lot of reaction to it. raeko did jump in and explain why Nakah parroted some of her thoughts, but that was more of a response from BDS asking it. I could see Nakah/raeko being a pair tbh.
THC then votes Toby, and MSF votes for THC. There is a lot of back and forth between THC and MSF, which is either a solid effort at distancing, or legitimate conversation that leads me to believe they wouldn't mind each other getting lynched.
I'm actually going to vote
Nakah for the time being.
Between the early parroting and this comment,
Quote from: raeko on March 08, 2024, 11:38:16 PMwhy are we connected together ;_;
I think there's
something going on between Nakah and raeko. Could be a lover pair, could be wolf-related. Sure, that quote is a fair question to ask in response to being combined in THCs sus list. But it felt a little like a trigger-happy distancing attempt.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 03:09:35 AMit's 50/50 EV because if the lynch kills one of the four pairs uniformly at random, there's a 50/50 chance of it being a h-h pair vs. a h-w pair, but from your perspective if you're human (and every other human's perspective), you're more likely to hit a wolf by lynching a different pair. thus every pair is incentivized to aim away from itself, but it's not possible for every pair to do this, because some pair is going to get voted.
yes there's essentially 4 possible lynch options, but from human pov, your pair is more likely to be h-h than h-w, because half the time you're in a h-w relationship you wouldn't have been given the human role in the first place.
No joke I woke up this morning and my first thought was "MSF was right". Next time I argue about probability I'll sleep first—sorry lol
MSF also makes a good point about the wolves having a big head start toward solving the game and therefore being helped less by partner revelations than humans are. I also talked to my lover about revealing who we are and I think I'm going to go for it—BDS and I are paired off this game.
I'll post a suspicion list a bit later but I will say that I don't find THC suspicious right now. He's not my top townread but he hasn't done or said anything that's out of character with his usual human game.
Raeko for now. Gonna need to hear more from you!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 08:44:45 AMBDS and I are paired off this game.
what
ok that's not what I expected
give me a moment to think
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 08:51:33 AMwhat
ok that's not what I expected
give me a moment to think
What did you expect MSF? And a few pages back you said you didn't mind if Specs got lynched even though you weren't suspicious of him—maybe share what you meant by that now?
okay, because I personally feel that we should get the pairings out there as soon as possible, and because the wolves can almost surely deduce the pairings by now, I'm going to lay it all out even though my partner hasn't responded yet (sorry raeko).
raeko and I are lovers. given that TZP and BDS are lovers, Specs has denied being THC's lover, Specs is currently voting Nakah, and THC is currently voting Toby (and said that if he didn't vote Toby, he'd rather vote his own lover), the pairings are almost certainly (bar an elaborate ruse):
MSF - raeko
TZP - BDS
Specs - Toby
THC - Nakah
in our messages, raeko was the first to bring up that she was sussing THC, although I was already sussing him at that point as well. I have a fairly neutral lean on raeko right now which is not enough for me to want to sacrifice ourselves.
on their own I think THC and Nakah are slightly wolfy, but I'm a little more willing to trust THC for now after what he said above.
more importantly: given that raeko, BDS, Specs, and I (and even THC himself) have all pointed fingers at THC - Nakah pair (raeko only to me in private), I'm very scared that at least one of the above is a wolf pushing to lynch a human-human pair. it could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP or whose partner has given up on trying to protect him, but it seems just as plausible to me that THC - Nakah is human/human and an easy lynch target for the wolves.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 09:08:37 AMWhat did you expect MSF? And a few pages back you said you didn't mind if Specs got lynched even though you weren't suspicious of him—maybe share what you meant by that now?
I did not think that Specs and Toby were lovers because of Toby's initial vote. in hindsight that was probably not a very strong reason to think so because it was an early vote with not much basis and no real expectation of going through. could have been a planned ruse, could have been Toby just trying to generate discussion.
re: not minding if Specs got lynched, I explained in my readslist:
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:04:44 AMtowny
Toby: his early vote on Specs strikes me as human — I'm not sure a wolf would be so confident as to throw out the first vote onto a human-human pair based on minimal reasoning from the get-go, as it might make them stand out more — which is why I was confident joining Toby even though I didn't wolfread Specs, because if Toby is human and I am human then I think there would be a good chance that lynching Specs' pair would take down a wolf. the other reason I've continued to townread Toby is this:
...
obviously if Specs and Toby are lovers this no longer holds and I don't feel overly compelled to lynch Specs.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 09:11:27 AMmore importantly: given that raeko, BDS, Specs, and I (and even THC himself) have all pointed fingers at THC - Nakah pair (raeko only to me in private), I'm very scared that at least one of the above is a wolf pushing to lynch a human-human pair. it could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP or whose partner has given up on trying to protect him, but it seems just as plausible to me that THC - Nakah is human/human and an easy lynch target for the wolves.
Yeah, if that's the case about multiple people accusing the THC/Nakah pair I'm glad this is out in the open now. A wolf strategy that works only if the pairs aren't known is to push for taking down the same pair by each wolf accusing a different member of it to make the vote stacking less obvious.
I need to run, so I can't provide full explanations right now, but here's my suspicion list, from most to least human
1. Toby
2. MSF
3. THC
4. Specs
5. BDS
6. Raeko
7. Nakah
Most human—If Toby and Specs are indeed partners I think that's Toby's early vote on him was probably an early game reaction test, an aggressive one I don't think a wolf would have thought of
Most wolfy—we've gotten bitten here a lot recently by wolves that are hiding, so if you're on the level, we need to hear more from you, Nakah
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 09:11:27 AMit could be that Nakah is an inactive wolf who's paired with Toby or TZP
(or raeko - as multiple people have suggested)
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 09:26:56 AM(or raeko - as multiple people have suggested)
if raeko's paired with Nakah I'm not sure she would have suggested lynching THC to me
Hi sorry I'm away today and not had much time to catch-up. I'll be back to my normal schedule tomorrow
My initial vote was purely a reaction test I just wanted to vote for Specs as my partner to see both his reaction and others
I was surprised more people agreed with my reasoning so I can't really be too sus of it.
Reading thc and Mario as town.
Going to try pop on and likely change my vote later. My contribution will be low today unfortunately
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AMWhy is Specs being voted? Specs is currently my highest townread (only by a small margin, though), and I don't see him having posted anything suspicious. If anything, I find raeko and Toby to be a bit suspicious. raeko's posts feel a bit like fluff, and Toby made a vote in only his third post, giving only one reason as to why. Out of those two, Toby definitely feels more sus to me, but I'm keeping my eye on both of them.
And I did ignore this because I was just fishing for reactions really and kind of just fabricated my reasoning for voting specs. So I didn't have much to say to defend it
I am also busy today and won't be able to post much. I'll try to get on a few more times when I am able
MSF is indeed my lover. It's OK you revealed before I could respond, I was thinking last night that I wanted to do that anyway
I was slightly wolf reading MSF yesterday but after reading the stuff from this morning I think I've changed my mind. I'm definitely not wolf reading him enough that I would want to sacrifice myself
If THC and Nakah are lovers I would probably want to lynch one of them. I still don't have a town read on THC and Nakah is just afk and when he was here he didn't really say much of anything
I know they can't both be wolves but I feel like there is a solid reasoning for either one of them to be a wolf so that's where I'm at really
I will put my vote on Nakah for now
I won't be able to pay too much attention to the thread but I'll try to come back before EoD to make sure this is still where I want my vote
Don't vote me out sorry I've been afk because I work overnights(Not as a wolf, as a package-handler). I have some catching up to do with the thread...
I find it suspicious that Raeko wants to put a vote on me after saying "If THC and Nakah are lovers I would probably want to lynch one of them." -Since this obviously would take both THC and I out.
I say this because THC and I are indeed fact lovers. I feel it's necessary to state this now since I'm apparently high on people's suspicion list. I haven't been able to keep up with the thread due to work, and there's been a lot of posting/strategic talk that has been a bit for me to keep up with. I honestly haven't dived into a TWG in months/years between here and the FFR website.
I feel it's kind of worth noting that THC apologized to me in DM about the probability of us both getting lynched early on do to feeling that they back themselves into a corner with their charisma in game usually. So that kind of gives me a town feel about THC, but I haven't corresponded with THC other than that so I don't really know and I still need to evaluate the posts they've made.
Since I'm being voted by Raeko, and she states that she's kind of unsure about whether to vote me(and is going to wait until close to end of day phase to decide about her vote), them I'm going to put a likewise unsure kind of vote on her as a reaction test as well to see what happens...
I'll come back with more to say in a bit. I have the weekend off thankfully.
Also I wanted to say that I too have the tendency to back myself into a corner on Day 1 especially with my posting charisma, so please bear with me on that lol I need to break my mentality back into this.
That being said, I just realized my signature gifs of the three dancing palm tree is totally how I feel about Raeko trying to vote me and ride the Nakah suspicious bus wave this early in game. Traitor ^_^
Woweeeeeee I voted for you so you voted for me back
Who do you think is a wolf tho :thinking:
Current votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Toby: 1 (ThatHiddenCharacter)
ThatHiddenCharacter: 1 (mastersuperfan)
Raeko: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, Nakah)
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
As always, if I'm missing anything let me know!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 05:58:51 PMNo. Raeko and Nakah because they both expressed the same/similar opinion about you.
Okay sorry triple post, but I need to clarify this. I'll make another post about actual reads in a bit when I've re-read the thread more.
I actually didn't even read Raeko's original post thoroughly when she stated basically the same idea I did about MasterSuperFan's first post. I kinda glazed over her post quickly as with most peoples before posting. This was due to the fact that I was rushing a post real quick in between shifts at my job around 3:50am before I had to go clock back in lol.
I do recall thinking around 9am when I got out of work that "oh I need to address that someone called that parallel mind-melding out." I
was going to say that I was spooked that Raeko and I actually said the same exact thing. Due to the fact that we aren't paired as lovers. I was going to say that I can't prove that obviously so that would seem spooky to everyone else, but since I know for a fact myself that we aren't paired lovers that I am actually spooked. What are the odds lol we thought the same way without even knowing. She's probably like rofl you idiot.
I'm just voting Raeko at the nonce to put a bit of pressure on her and to see what transpires...I don't necessarily have a deep wolf lean vibe coming from them.
Also I did not intentionally sheep BDS' read. Same thing as before, I need to re-read this thread and give it more thought before making my own read. I kind of glazed over the first page and most of the second page in between shifts because there was too much meta talk going on and I had to make it in for the next shift quickly. I acknowledge this being a poor excuse and not that town-like seeming. If I were a wolf though I'd probably point fingers more at someone else other than Raeko with some sort of made up confidence to twist things, though. Instead I admit I'm quite dumbfounded at the moment.
raeko, what made you sus of THC initially? What makes you still sus of him now?
Quote from: Oricorio on March 09, 2024, 11:13:18 AMCurrent votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Toby: 1 (ThatHiddenCharacter)
ThatHiddenCharacter: 1 (mastersuperfan)
Raeko: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, Nakah)
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
As always, if I'm missing anything let me know!
I think Specs voted for Nakah?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 11:16:57 AMraeko, what made you sus of THC initially? What makes you still sus of him now?
Mostly his reaction to Toby's Specs vote, but his reaction makes more sense now that we know that it actually wasn't a real vote
I just don't town read him and slightly wolf read nakah so they seem like the best bet overall
I did, and the Nakah is listed twice there.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 11:28:50 AMI did, and the Nakah is listed twice there.
The Nahak lol. Typo.
The last few games I've played with Nakah he has been town and his tone was very different than this game. He was talking in crazy metaphors and his usual lord of the rings sounding wording of things
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 11:04:56 AMposting charisma
Sure let's call it that
He's missing his usual silly "posting charisma" and taking the game more seriously. I think this leans wolfy for him
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 08, 2024, 09:43:41 PMThat was absolutely not my only reason, and I even specified that it was the less important reason. My main reason was because it was Toby's third post, and he only gave one reason that didn't even feel like a good reason to place a vote so quickly. I understand voting is important in a day-only game like this, but that doesn't mean we have to rush votes out in the first half of the phase. And I didn't like msf's vote because he had said only a couple posts before that he was slightly leaning town on Specs, then basically just jumped on Toby's vote with what basically amounted to a "YEET!". Now, I fully recognize that it could just be a reaction test, which is why it only brought msf to a neutral lean for me.
I quote this because I feel it's actually worthwhile to defend my lover here. I cannot vouch entirely that they are town but this definitely reads in my mind as leaning towards town. I agree about Toby seeming suspicious for the reason highlighted in the quote, as well as general posts since then. I'll dive more into in a moment.
First I wanted to draw my perspective on the reads others have made thus far. This is what ZeldaPianist listed as his
most-to-least human seeming list:
1. Toby
2. MSF
3. THC
4. Specs
5. BDS
6. Raeko
7. Nakah
^To me, putting Toby high up on the list is giving a bit too much early assurance to verify them as town. I'm not feeling the same vibe about Toby thus far, so to see them being put on a town pedestal is a bit disconcerting. Putting Raeko and myself on the bottom of the list is a put like stuffing us in the well with a pitch fork...I can sense the Raeko read a bit because I also have a weird feeling about how Raeko has come out Day 1 with casualness followed by sudden siding with people and trigger pointing at me. BDS is actually giving me a bit of a weird vibe as well.
Alright, having read the thread now, there's too many read lists, and I have to say I actually agree with THC's list most compared to ZeldaPianist's; and so I need to make my own list of reads.
BEHOLD! Players:1. BDS ~Thus far, everything I've read by BDS has been platform text strategy, whatever that means to you I mean mostly linear straight factual talk. I think this is a bit of a shield, but his reasoning to me doesn't sound that assuring towards the truth. I sense a hint of weaving the web for the stage here. Difficult to describe, I need to bring up more details from his posts, but for now I'm going to give BDS a
Wolfy Check.
2. ThatHiddenCharacter ~This person, I did not really pay attention to at all until today when I read the DM they send me, and realized I needed to speak up due to them feeling like they were cornering themselves in the thread, and the fact that we are paired lovers. I need to state that I strongly feel that everything THC has posted thus far resounds truthful to me. I feel the same way about a lot of his reads, that's why I didn't list it above because they were a bit too long, but there's nothing but an honest feeling when I read them. As far charisma goes, his spoken words sound self-exclamatory which is a sign of town-fulness. Giving THC a
Town Check 3. SpecsFlyer17 ~This person as well, perhaps even more-so over everyone else, has spoken with truthful strategy early on that made more sense to me than MasterSuperFan and BDS. I'm not sure why some people have tried to put Specs close to the chopping block, but I want those people to be noted in the minds of everyone in the game, because I find it suspicious to try to lean a wolf check on this guy. I feel that they have the highest
Town Check thus far, above BDS(I say him because there seems to be a defense vibe in peoples minds where BDS is getting a green pass for no apparent reason) and above THC. tl;dr ...Town Check.
4. Nakah ~I came out a bit whimsical with nothing important to say, as I always to Day 1 in TWG's and it usually makes me appear weak and sheep'ish. This immediately was called out lol, and I apologize for not having my head in the game right away with meta-strategic talk. I tend to not be able to analyze things right off the bat with mathematical deductive reasoning about how the layout should go, and I tend to like to drop in softly and see what transpires, especially as town. If I were wolf, I'd probably stay back a bit and drop in with some teaming ideas to twist things...naturally that's what is in the wolves best interest
as stated by SpecsFlyer17 THAT THE WOLVES HAVE A PRIORITY TO DEFEND EACH OTHER AND EACH OTHER'S LOVERS ....This and THIS most importantly is what we need to read between the lines and look for. This is why I believe deeply in Town Check for Specs thus far.
5. Raeko ~I pretty much have to agree with Spec's read on you in summarization...Sorry to sound like I'm riding the bus with Spec a lot in this post, but when he states:
Raeko: Claimed to like Toby's reasoning for voting me, with I naturally disagree with. Could be genuine, could be using the opportunity to bandwagon on someone who isn't a wolf/wolf's lover. Just a possibility, but a slight suspicion. ....This is pretty much what I would have written as a read for you thus far, but in a neater context without paragraphs of explanation like I'm doing here lol...I'm otherwise just interested in seeing your future reactions and the reactions around you. Leaning a
Wolf Check[/i] for now.
6. TheZeldaPianist275 ~You're coming off as polite and trying to be helpful, but as I've seen a lot of your posts kind of go against the general ideas that were being presented, and you're kind of popping in here and there with not much for me to read. Suspicious but a Town Check[/i] for now.
7. mastersuperfan ~I have to agree with Specs a lot about your posting. It could be helpful the strategy you've presented, but it's also something a wolf would do off the bat...Also you did vote for spec which makes no sense to me. It sounds as though you wish to twist things and push heat with the irons in the furnace and make things shift towards suspicious fighting so the wolves can make a counter attack decision. You get a [/u]Wolf Check[/u] from me, especially because of my first post where I found what you stated as strange.
8. Toby ~So far I've seen gentle posting with not much attempt to dive into details...Kind of giving the smooth pass to let things evolve as they go along and see what unfolds. States on page 1 in one of their posts. where they say:
I think master super fans plan is fine. I also don't mind waiting a phase before we reveal to see a contrast -This to me sounds a bit like teaming with mastersuperfan for unnecessary reasons. Why is it fine? Why do you not mind if we let things slip. Let it be noted that MasterSuperFan switches his vote onto Specsflyer17 to turn up the heat
Wew long post...I have much more to say, but I just realized there's been a ton of posting since I started this post. Shall return with more.
Ahhh uh oh sorry bbc tag mistake...I won't edit my post but that reallllyyy makes it seem informal lol.
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 11:01:10 AMSince I'm being voted by Raeko, and she states that she's kind of unsure about whether to vote me(and is going to wait until close to end of day phase to decide about her vote), them I'm going to put a likewise unsure kind of vote on her as a reaction test as well to see what happens...
I feel like saying you're doing a reaction test defeats part of the purpose of a reaction test
Feels more like over explaining the reason for a vote
Quote from: Toby on March 09, 2024, 12:16:32 PMI feel like saying you're doing a reaction test defeats part of the purpose of a reaction test
Feels more like over explaining the reason for a vote
You know, that's true. I felt that as soon as I posted it, that due the fact that I called out Raeko that now no one would say anything...So I'll change my vote now since I've made up my mind a bit more. Placing my vote onto
BlackDragonSlayer for reasons in my post above, and for a sense of intuition.
Alright, so the game is solved, save for a convoluted plot behind the scenes where people agreed to lie.
Regarding Toby's reaction test, I was a bit surprised by the lack of negative reaction towards his vote on me. However, knowing him to be my lover, I figured it was a reaction test and it likely wouldn't stick.
Looks like I missed on my Nakah/raeko pairing prediction. The accused fluff/parroting can cannot be chalked up on being lovers, but rather some oversights or possibly wolfplay.
Nakah's suspicion list (which wins the world record for worst formatted post ever lol :) ) seems pretty high on me, almost too high to be motivated by wolfy intentions. I find it hard to believe a wolf would come out swinging so hard to defend someone who they were trying to protect. That being said, it could be a reverse-phycology attempt, and maybe I am a wolf's lover, which would align with wolf!Toby and wolf!Nakah.
I still stand by my thoughts about raeko liking Toby's reasoning for the vote on me. Toby even admitted he was grasping for any flimsy logic to vote me. That may feel like it could be wolfplay; a small attempt to bandwagon on a player who's lynch would be beneficial to the wolves.
unvote
I would also like to point out that if Nakah were a wolf, there would likely be two people trying to defend him. And from what I can tell, no one has come to his defense. I will say, I was fully prepared to be on the chopping block in the case that Nakah is a wolf, but the posts he made after I fell asleep all feel genuine to me. I'm getting a bit more of a town read now. I also didn't have two people defending me when I was the subject of votes, which would also likely be the case if Nakah were a wolf.
The issue now is that I don't agree with wolf read on BDS, and therefore don't want to vote him, but I also no longer feel voting my own pair out is a good idea.
I'm going to change my vote to raeko because it's clear that voting Toby will get me nowhere right now.
I was already planning to do this earlier (and have PMs with raeko to back it up) but was going to wait until BDS showed up. but since Nakah has already gone ahead with it, I'm going to do it too.
BDS
I don't have a super strong wolfread on BDS or TZP (whereas Nakah might seem to), but I still feel good about Toby, and a bit moreso about THC and Nakah since this morning. right now I think BDS and TZP are flying under the radar without much scrutiny (well, before Nakah showed up, anyway), and that scares me, because I'm not sure I'd be able to tell d1 if one of BDS or TZP is doing a wolf plot behind the scenes. given that I feel good about Toby and better about THC/Nakah than before, from my pov going for TZP/BDS probabilistically has the best chance of getting a wolf.
I'm also still suspect about the idea of a wolf among BDS/Specs/raeko pushing for lynch a h/h THC/Nakah. in the future I could be convinced to vote raeko out and sacrifice myself, but not today.
---
ninja'd. THC the fact that you changed your mind on your vote after you said you were pretty sure it wouldn't change doesn't sit amazingly with me. my wolfread on you isn't as strong as it was previously but I would still be willing to vote you/Nakah out if TZP/BDS doesn't go through or if me/raeko is going to get voted out instead.
might not have a ton of time before phase end. will pop in and out but I might not have the ability to do any long detailed analyses
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 01:35:51 PMafter you said you were pretty sure it wouldn't change
I specifically said unless something big happens. And Nakah came in full force and changed my neutral lean on him, which is big since it means I now have a reason to defend him.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 01:38:09 PMI specifically said unless something big happens. And Nakah came in full force and changed my neutral lean on him, which is big since it means I now have a reason to defend him.
when you said you weren't going to change your mind "unless something big happens," you were talking about voting Toby, not about voting your own lover out. what happened to that?
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 2 (BlackDragonSlayer, Raeko)
Raeko: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, ThatHiddenCharacter)
BlackDragonSlayer: 2 (Nakah, mastersuperfan)
You have a little over four hours left!
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 01:39:43 PMyou were talking about voting Toby, not about voting your own lover out.
Yes. But since I was the only one voting Toby, and Nakah was the only one with more than 1 vote at the time, I would have to change my vote to protect Nakah. I don't wolf read BDS enough to have changed my vote to him, so it made more sense for me to change my vote to raeko, who I do have a slight wolf read on.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 01:51:04 PMYes. But since I was the only one voting Toby, and Nakah was the only one with more than 1 vote at the time, I would have to change my vote to protect Nakah. I don't wolf read BDS enough to have changed my vote to him, so it made more sense for me to change my vote to raeko, who I do have a slight wolf read on.
okay, makes sense.
THC, what are your current reads on me and TZP? remember that when you're choosing to vote raeko vs. BDS, you're not just assessing the probability that raeko or BDS is a wolf, but the probability that raeko or I are a wolf vs. the probability that BDS or TZP is a wolf. if you think me + raeko is more likely, fine, but right now I'm not sure you're factoring it in.
I acknowledge that I don't have great reasoning for BDS/TZP at the moment other than "others seem good." I'll try to come back before phase end to remedy that
Wanted to pop in and say that I've been doing a bit of reaction testing of BDS in PMs. I wanted his opinion on the Specs vote, and his take on it seemed normal and thoughtful to me.
However, I also suggested an off-the-wall partner claiming plan—to claim partners,unexpectedly, before the group had reached a consensus that everybody claiming would be the best thing to do, and even ask that everyone else keep quiet about their partnerships. Partially I was interested in this plan because I wanted to see if it prompted any unusual reactions from anyone. (this didn't pan out because, as MSF pointed out, neither BDS nor I have attracted that much interest this game so far) However, I also wanted to see what BDS' private reaction would be to an unusual plan that was halfway between everyone keeping quiet and everybody sharing.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 05:58:18 PMOut of curiosity, what would that accomplish? Feels like a strange thing to suggest. If we're revealing lover information (which I'm still on the fence about—I feel like the discussion thus far has been very enlightening since most people have been operation on the assumption that we're not going to be revealing that information early), it should probably be all-or-nothing.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 08, 2024, 09:40:58 PMI'm open to doing a universal lover reveal, say, 12 hours before phase end, though it needs to be someone everyone agrees upon, of course. I think at this point it could reveal critical information about how people have been acting up until now. Based upon my own game thoughts (which I touched on in the thread (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12913.msg441283#msg441283)) it could definitely be revealing.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 06:54:19 AMI'll give better thoughts later (will 100% be awake at least a few hours before phase end), but just know that I'm ok with keeping my vote for the time being, and if you feel the need to reveal our lover pair publicly you can go ahead with that.
If BDS is a wolf, I don't think that he's playing any specific angle with this. He plays cleaner than that when he's guilty—I'm just noting an ambivalence or maybe even an apathy toward this hybrid claim strategy. I think a human would be more likely to directly engage with the plan on its merits.
I'm going to keep my vote on Raeko for now, in part because I want to keep playing, but I don't think I'd object to BDS going down either. I may switch to Nakah later (I think I'd rather lose THC/Nakah than Raeko/MSF) but don't want to risk an insta.
If I'm correct, this phase ends in T-9 minutes at 6:00pm EST?
Sorry, we're in EDT lol....but that last post by ZeldaPianist is very suspicious, because I feel town check for THC, who is my paired lover, and I don't feel town check for Raeko/MSF.....Both of which are being a bit inactive until probably the last second as wolves do.
I'm willing to bet right now that MSF is more Town than Raeko....but I don't want to push a vote on Raeko.
I'm feeling right now that the possible wolf team may be BDS and Raeko....I'm therefore keeping my vote on BDS for now.
Ohh okay nevermind I see, Day 1 officially ends at 9pm EDT...
Could the host please simply state the official phase ending time in EDT format so I don't sound like a fool of a took. Or in format of the forum time...instead of giving 48 hours and then I have to calculate as my mind wanders in this post and you keep reading it wondering why I'm typing with nothing else to say and I giggle because it's TWG and every takes Day 1 so seriously and here I am trying to break my mind into it again and no one has sent me any PMs for conversation which makes me feel bad inside like a left out kid at the playground but also makes me wonder what kind of scheme'ing is happening in the background and how many PMs are going around and whether the wolves are trying to be PM overlords like spiders....
So if you're getting a lot of PM discussion, my bet is that you're coordinating with the high likely-hood of Wolves. As a town I have not PM'd anyone and only have received one PM from my lover, THC.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 02:11:00 PMbut right now I'm not sure you're factoring it in.
I am factoring it in. At this point, for those two groups, it's between raeko and TZP being wolf for me. The real question is who am I more willing to lose as town, you or BDS. The problem is, I kinda see both sets as equal. I think at this point, I feel raeko and TZP are about equally sus to me, which isn't a lot, and I think losing either you or BDS (assuming you are town) would be equally bad.
Catching up now. Again, gonna try to go page-by-page.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 09:11:27 AMMSF - raeko
TZP - BDS
Specs - Toby
THC - Nakah
This is certainly an interesting outcome if it's indeed the case. Elaborating on what you said about the THC/Nakah pair, assuming one of those people is a wolf, there has to be
some level of intentional distancing going on (probably assuming that earlier pushes won't end up being as serious and might actually end up taking the heat off certain people).
1. Assuming the wolf pair is, say, Toby/THC, that would mean that THC would be aware that Toby's vote for Specs was not genuine and probably wouldn't have reacted as strongly (it didn't look good for THC, imo).
2. Assuming the wolf pair is, say, Specs/THC, I don't think THC would have been so careless as to directly reveal his ties to his wolf partner (though it's possible he was just trying to act from what he thought was a "human being surprised that his most human read has two votes already" angle and misjudged what other people thought of Specs).
3. Assuming the wolf pair is, say, Toby/Nakah, that means THC was a human defending human Specs, which seems like too much of a coincidence and makes that whole conclusion a bit of a stretch.
That being said, given Specs' vote on Nakah, piling on top of mine, I'm inclined to agree
for the time being that THC/Nakah probably isn't a wolf/human pair. Which leads me to my next point.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 09:24:03 AMMost human—If Toby and Specs are indeed partners I think that's Toby's early vote on him was probably an early game reaction test, an aggressive one I don't think a wolf would have thought of
It's interesting that you put Toby as
most human. I don't think it's an aggressive play at all for a wolf to fake a push on their lover early in a phase, especially when they're part of the push and can easily pivot away from it at any time if it ends up gaining any actual steam. If anything, a "failed" push would be much more likely to pull actual heat off their lover, which, in turn, would make the wolf more likely to survive.
This train of thought is a bit strange to me and makes me think that TZP/Toby (or TZP/Specs) could be a possible pairing.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 09:39:14 AMif raeko's paired with Nakah I'm not sure she would have suggested lynching THC to me
At this point in time I don't think Raeko/Nakah is a wolf pairing, though it's entirely possible one of them could be a wolf individually.
Quote from: Toby on March 09, 2024, 10:02:21 AMMy initial vote was purely a reaction test I just wanted to vote for Specs as my partner to see both his reaction and others
I'm assuming this is confirmation of Specs/Toby as lovers.
QuoteReading thc and Mario as town.
Not even gonna speculate who Mario is supposed to be :P
I think the reason I feel most comfortable voting BDS/TZP is that both of them have been so removed from a lot of the main action this round that, if one of them is a wolf, I think there's a good chance they're going to dangerously fly under the radar in future rounds because there won't be enough to lynch them. given that the me/raeko and THC/Nakah options are and have been pretty contentious, and essentially opposite each other, I worry that if we lynch one of these pairs today then we lynch the other tomorrow, and we get screwed by any BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs wolf pair that could've easily flown under the radar and garnered influence because they managed to escape heavy attention.
not sure if that's a good reason. it seems to me at least that BDS's comments have remained somewhat light and not making any strong assertions or moves, and TZP's comments were mechanistic / strategy for a while; neither really got involved in the thick of the discussions. I do somewhat townread TZP for reaction testing BDS, taking the initiative to out lovers, and having a readslist similar to mine, but I worry whether I'm being buddied to some extent.
I think I would be quite surprised if both wolves were among raeko, THC, and Nakah because of the aggression between raeko and THC/Nakah. I think that means there's probably a wolf between BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby.
---
ninja'd by BDS
Going to place a vote on raeko.
I still don't like their reaction to Toby's vote on me, for reasons I mentioned in post 122.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 04:05:21 PMGoing to place a vote on raeko.
I still don't like their reaction to Toby's vote on me, for reasons I mentioned in post 122.
Specs, what would be your second most preferred lynch after me/raeko?
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (Toby)
Nakah: 2 (BlackDragonSlayer, Raeko)
Raeko: 3 (TheZeldaPianist275, ThatHiddenCharacter, SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 2 (Nakah, mastersuperfan)
110 more minutes!
Quote from: raeko on March 09, 2024, 10:49:36 AMI am also busy today and won't be able to post much. I'll try to get on a few more times when I am able
MSF is indeed my lover. It's OK you revealed before I could respond, I was thinking last night that I wanted to do that anyway
I was slightly wolf reading MSF yesterday but after reading the stuff from this morning I think I've changed my mind. I'm definitely not wolf reading him enough that I would want to sacrifice myself
If THC and Nakah are lovers I would probably want to lynch one of them. I still don't have a town read on THC and Nakah is just afk and when he was here he didn't really say much of anything
I know they can't both be wolves but I feel like there is a solid reasoning for either one of them to be a wolf so that's where I'm at really
I will put my vote on Nakah for now
I won't be able to pay too much attention to the thread but I'll try to come back before EoD to make sure this is still where I want my vote
Interesting vote especially in the context of what happened just before, i.e. the lover pair reveals suggestion that basically everyone has it out for one of the THC/Nakah pairing.
I'm gonna go ahead and say right now that I'm probably going to change my vote by the time I'm done catching up, likely to Specs. I think we can re-evaluate the THC/Nakah pairing later, but given the reveal of the lover pairings I think I'd prefer to steer clear from lynching them for now.
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 11:01:10 AMI feel it's kind of worth noting that THC apologized to me in DM about the probability of us both getting lynched early on do to feeling that they back themselves into a corner with their charisma in game usually. So that kind of gives me a town feel about THC, but I haven't corresponded with THC other than that so I don't really know and I still need to evaluate the posts they've made.
Interesting. I hope THC will elaborate on this.
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 11:15:30 AMI actually didn't even read Raeko's original post thoroughly when she stated basically the same idea I did about MasterSuperFan's first post. I kinda glazed over her post quickly as with most peoples before posting. This was due to the fact that I was rushing a post real quick in between shifts at my job around 3:50am before I had to go clock back in lol.
I do recall thinking around 9am when I got out of work that "oh I need to address that someone called that parallel mind-melding out." I was going to say that I was spooked that Raeko and I actually said the same exact thing. Due to the fact that we aren't paired as lovers. I was going to say that I can't prove that obviously so that would seem spooky to everyone else, but since I know for a fact myself that we aren't paired lovers that I am actually spooked. What are the odds lol we thought the same way without even knowing. She's probably like rofl you idiot.
Fair enough, I think we can chalk it up to you to have similar thought processes. It was more than a bit weird but not
entirely suspicious, especially given information we've gotten since then.
Quote from: raeko on March 09, 2024, 11:48:38 AMThe last few games I've played with Nakah he has been town and his tone was very different than this game. He was talking in crazy metaphors and his usual lord of the rings sounding wording of things
In his defense, people's posting style can often change from site to site depending on each site's "culture."
With so little time left in the phase, I find it a bit concerning how Raeko is piling on a lynch that's already picked up steam. I would be more comfortable with it had Raeko placed a vote earlier (say, before Specs). As I said though, I myself am likely to change my vote.
In addition to the TZP/Toby (or TZP/Specs) pairs I mentioned earlier, I would also potentially sub Raeko out for TZP in those pairings.
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 12:14:18 PM^To me, putting Toby high up on the list is giving a bit too much early assurance to verify them as town. I'm not feeling the same vibe about Toby thus far, so to see them being put on a town pedestal is a bit disconcerting. Putting Raeko and myself on the bottom of the list is a put like stuffing us in the well with a pitch fork...I can sense the Raeko read a bit because I also have a weird feeling about how Raeko has come out Day 1 with casualness followed by sudden siding with people and trigger pointing at me. BDS is actually giving me a bit of a weird vibe as well.
Speaking of mindmelds, both of us were a bit sus of TZP's reads list. I've already said why I was weirded out by his reasoning for putting Toby up as high as he did, but to touch on your point of TZP putting you and Raeko all the way at the bottom, that feels a bit like a typical/"expected" placement (i.e. to go with the flow of what most people have generally been leaning toward) rather than a
genuine placement.
Also, props for making such a substantive suspicion list; I can definitely say, though, that some of your placements seem to contradict what I'd have expected with what you've said so far (most notably, putting TZP as
town despite pointing out the weirdness of his reads list just above).
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 04:15:30 PMInteresting. I hope THC will elaborate on this.
I actually intended on sending that message the moment I saw Nakah was my lover. My first thought was, 'Ah, I'm going to ruin the game for
the NSM TWG veteran by being me.' And I felt bad about it, but I can't really change how I play, cause I tend to speak how I think without much forethought.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 01:01:17 PMAlright, so the game is solved, save for a convoluted plot behind the scenes where people agreed to lie.
i don't think the game is solved by any stretch of the imagination
QuoteRegarding Toby's reaction test, I was a bit surprised by the lack of negative reaction towards his vote on me. However, knowing him to be my lover, I figured it was a reaction test and it likely wouldn't stick.
Why were you surprised? I don't think there was much reason for a negative reaction toward his vote—which is why I called THC out for his reaction.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 01:35:51 PMninja'd. THC the fact that you changed your mind on your vote after you said you were pretty sure it wouldn't change doesn't sit amazingly with me. my wolfread on you isn't as strong as it was previously but I would still be willing to vote you/Nakah out if TZP/BDS doesn't go through or if me/raeko is going to get voted out instead.
I think the only thing preventing me from sticking with a THC/Nakah vote is what you mentioned earlier (i.e. so many people have been gunning for them that it feels like a wolf push against an easy pair). Plus, now that Nakah has actually popped in and delivered some substantial content, my initial reasons for wanting to vote him have already been addressed, somewhat.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:00:59 PMand we get screwed by any BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs wolf pair that could've easily flown under the radar and garnered influence because they managed to escape heavy attention.
Honestly, this is a very good point. While I do feel that TZP is more sus than BDS by quite a bit, it is much more likely that if raeko/msf is voted today, Nakah/me will be voted tomorrow, and I think I'd be pretty upset for advocating that course of events. There's also the fact that, once again, it seems most everyone is jumping on the raeko/msf train, which has me concerned that it's a h/h pair.
I'm changing my vote to
BDS. Sorry buddy, just know that I'm only doing it to get rid of TZP, you just have more votes on you.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 04:33:13 PMThere's also the fact that, once again, it seems most everyone is jumping on the raeko/msf train, which has me concerned that it's a h/h pair.
I mean at this point Toby/Specs is the only pair that hasn't come under fire as a lynch target so surely we should just lynch them instead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:00:59 PMI think the reason I feel most comfortable voting BDS/TZP is that both of them have been so removed from a lot of the main action this round that, if one of them is a wolf, I think there's a good chance they're going to dangerously fly under the radar in future rounds because there won't be enough to lynch them. given that the me/raeko and THC/Nakah options are and have been pretty contentious, and essentially opposite each other, I worry that if we lynch one of these pairs today then we lynch the other tomorrow, and we get screwed by any BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs wolf pair that could've easily flown under the radar and garnered influence because they managed to escape heavy attention.
Out of curiosity, why do you feel that about me/TZP but not Specs/Toby, who it seems to me (and least upon first glance) have been significantly less involved in the "main action" of this phase?
Though I'm not inherently opposed to TZP going down (at great personal cost), I'd personally prefer to lynch what I feel is the more "reliable" wolf pair at the moment (Specs/Toby).
Quotenot sure if that's a good reason. it seems to me at least that BDS's comments have remained somewhat light and not making any strong assertions or moves
Wasn't I the first person to (at least, publicly) direct suspicion toward THC, though? As well as pointing out the seeming Raeko/Nakah mindmeld (
and pointing suspicion toward Nakah)?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 04:28:29 PMI actually intended on sending that message the moment I saw Nakah was my lover. My first thought was, 'Ah, I'm going to ruin the game for the NSM TWG veteran by being me.' And I felt bad about it, but I can't really change how I play, cause I tend to speak how I think without much forethought.
... :P
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 04:33:13 PMHonestly, this is a very good point. While I do feel that TZP is more sus than BDS by quite a bit, it is much more likely that if raeko/msf is voted today, Nakah/me will be voted tomorrow, and I think I'd be pretty upset for advocating that course of events. There's also the fact that, once again, it seems most everyone is jumping on the raeko/msf train, which has me concerned that it's a h/h pair.
I'm changing my vote to BDS. Sorry buddy, just know that I'm only doing it to get rid of TZP, you just have more votes on you.
Being lynched because someone else is more suspicious. Imagine that.
I don't
really want MSF/Raeko lynched this phase, at least compared to Toby/Specs or TZP. I'm conflicted about the possibility of changing my vote to Raeko, and likely will not.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:35:03 PMI mean at this point Toby/Specs is the only pair that hasn't come under fire as a lynch target so surely we should just lynch them instead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
And that makes me feel like Toby's earlier Specs vote was a deliberate ploy to lead to that outcome.
Specs
Omg I typed up a post but the signal in this hotel is so bad
Sorry for not being able to invest much time today
Basically leaning towards Raeko/TZP for wolf
Feeling uncertain on BDS and Specs
Leaning human on THC and mastersuperfan
I'm going back and forth on nakah tbh
I'll stick my vote on BDS since I'm unsure on both him and TZP
I'll be around until the end of the phase. Though I may be a bit distracted, I will try to remain involved in any discussion.
Quote from: Toby on March 09, 2024, 04:38:40 PMOmg I typed up a post but the signal in this hotel is so bad
Sorry for not being able to invest much time today
Basically leaning towards Raeko/TZP for wolf
Feeling uncertain on BDS and Specs
Leaning human on THC and mastersuperfan
I'm going back and forth on nakah tbh
I'll stick my vote on BDS since I'm unsure on both him and TZP
4 votes on me, one more is an insta? I'm assuming instas are on, which hasn't been specified yet (unfortunately I forgot to ask for clarification during host sign-ups; we should really put together a "hosting checklist" of essential clarifications that need to be made about every game).
unvote
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:06:48 PMSpecs, what would be your second most preferred lynch after me/raeko?
Nakah. I still think there was something going on between Nakah and Raeko, even if they aren't lovers.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 04:44:08 PMNakah. I still think there was something going on between Nakah and Raeko, even if they aren't lovers.
you think that they're wolf partners? or that one's a wolf and the other's a wolf's lover?
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 04:29:12 PMi don't think the game is solved by any stretch of the imagination
Solved in the sense that the lover pairs have been revealed, assuming no one is lying.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:45:17 PMyou think that they're wolf partners? or that one's a wolf and the other's a wolf's lover?
Could be either options. Probably more led to believe the later.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:42:09 PMunvote
This gives me town vibes. While you could argue that unvoting would give msf town points, it also wouldn't be inherently suspicious for him to stay with it, so trying to avoid an insta like this just feels like a town move to me. I will say that I don't like Toby's vote on BDS. It feels like a bandwagon, or maybe even an attempt to wolfrush. I'm so indecisive, I don't wanna just keep shifting my vote around, but I keep feeling like different people are the best vote option with each new post.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 04:44:08 PMNakah. I still think there was something going on between Nakah and Raeko, even if they aren't lovers.
Ehhhhh, I think the connection of them being close friends is enough to explain that, imo.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 09, 2024, 04:48:26 PMCould be either options. Probably more led to believe the later.
then which do you think is more likely, me and Nakah wolves or raeko and THC wolves?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 04:49:03 PMThis gives me town vibes. While you could argue that unvoting would give msf town points, it also wouldn't be inherently suspicious for him to stay with it, so trying to avoid an insta like this just feels like a town move to me. I will say that I don't like Toby's vote on BDS. It feels like a bandwagon, or maybe even an attempt to wolfrush. I'm so indecisive, I don't wanna just keep shifting my vote around, but I keep feeling like different people are the best vote option with each new post.
I agree in that regard, especially with how Toby just sorta popped in to vote for me. I think I would've felt better had he said something like "I'm planning to vote for BDS but wanna avoid insta risk so will wait a bit." Though given his mention of hotel wifi, that might be an explanation of why he might not wanna wait.
I'm going to change my vote to Specs. I really should've just stuck with my initial gut reaction. No more vote changes from me, no matter what. Considering both of their recent posts, I think it's a fair judgement that at least one of them is a wolf.
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
Raeko: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 2 (Nakah, Toby)
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (BlackDragonSlayer, ThatHiddenCharacter)
About an hour left!
oh god
Ok, someone's gonna have to change their vote, cause a three way KitB is not a good outcome. We need to have control over this situation.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 04:57:33 PMOk, someone's gonna have to change their vote, cause a three way KitB is not a good outcome. We need to have control over this situation.
I still have my vote
I'm trying to put together another reads list but I feel like things are all over the place at this point. In terms of lover pairs, I think my suspicions are (in order from most suspicious to least suspicious):
- Specs/Toby
- BDS/TZP (relying entirely on TZP there)
- THC/Nakah
- MSF/Raeko (relying mostly on Raeko there)
It's surprisingly difficult to get a good grip on individual people post-lover reveal (since all cards are on the table in that regard, wolves can be a lot more covert about defending the other wolf's lover since we're thinking in terms of lynch pairs rather than individual lynches), which is part of the reason I was hesitant to do a reveal in the first place (though I do think the reveal itself gave us better insight on how people were acting pre-reveal).
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 05:02:08 PMMSF/Raeko (relying mostly on Raeko there)
What I mean by this is that Raeko is the more suspicious of the two. I think MSF generally checks out as a human-seeming player.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 04:38:23 PMOut of curiosity, why do you feel that about me/TZP but not Specs/Toby, who it seems to me (and least upon first glance) have been significantly less involved in the "main action" of this phase?
at this point, I don't think I do anymore. Toby and Specs were a hotter topic near the beginning of the round, but not as much since and they haven't popped in as much at this point.
right now I think I'm leaning either you/TZP or Toby/Specs rather than THC/Nakah. if anyone else would like to change their vote, 'twould be nice to know...
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 04:38:23 PMWasn't I the first person to (at least, publicly) direct suspicion toward THC, though? As well as pointing out the seeming Raeko/Nakah mindmeld (and pointing suspicion toward Nakah)?
fair on the THC point, I do think that was warranted. I kind of think the raeko/Nakah mindmeld was kind of a trivial thing to fixate on, I have a pretty hard time believing it was a genuine wolfslip and not a coincidence. but it's probably happened before
I'm confused why people (BDS) disagree with my Toby human read. Toby going for a reaction test on his partner is certainly something he could do as a wolf, but I don't think that's how Toby usually plays at all. Can someone explain what the "weirdness" is here?
I think I'm going to keep my vote on Raeko. THC has slightly edged out MSF for me in terms of human reads; I'd rather keep him and Nakah around for longer. I don't care for the 3-way KitB, though--I'd consider changing my vote to BDS and just taking the L if that situation persists through the end of the phase.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:15:57 PMright now I think I'm leaning either you/TZP or Toby/Specs rather than THC/Nakah. if anyone else would like to change their vote, 'twould be nice to know...
Given we have 40-ish minutes toward the end of the phase, I think it'd be helpful to know which of those two pairs you're more likely to vote for, so we don't have any super last-minute vote shuffling attempts.
QuoteI kind of think the raeko/Nakah mindmeld was kind of a trivial thing to fixate on, I have a pretty hard time believing it was a genuine wolfslip and not a coincidence. but it's probably happened before
In hindsight, I agree with you, but at the time it was a weird sorta ??? moment.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 05:21:40 PMI'm confused why people (BDS) disagree with my Toby human read. Toby going for a reaction test on his partner is certainly something he could do as a wolf, but I don't think that's how Toby usually plays at all. Can someone explain what the "weirdness" is here?
It's weird to me that's enough to make Toby your
most human read. And, again, I don't feel like such a play would be out of the ordinary for most anybody in a game like this. It'd make sense to make a weak push early to distract from the possibility of strong push later (using the evidence of reactions during the weak push to fight against the strong push).
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 04:49:23 PMthen which do you think is more likely, me and Nakah wolves or raeko and THC wolves?
Frankly I'm not sure. I think I gravitate towards raeko-THC wolves.
The opposing reactions to Toby's vote could have been an attempt to distance.
Regarding me being surprised at the lack of reactions towards Toby's vote on me, I was more referring to people agreeing with it, especially being so early.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 05:23:51 PMIt's weird to me that's enough to make Toby your most human read. And, again, I don't feel like such a play would be out of the ordinary for most anybody in a game like this. It'd make sense to make a weak push early to distract from the possibility of strong push later (using the evidence of reactions during the weak push to fight against the strong push).
But I guess what I'm asking is who, from my perspective, do you think should be more human than him? I'm going off of playing several games with Toby recently, where he is very reserved as a human, especially early on, and only tends to make bold moves to prompt reactions from people--remember his prodding of me, A#, and Poet near the end of the tic-tac-toe game? That's what's in my mind; I think it's a demonstration that he's in the mindset of a human, scoping for information rather than coasting under the radar.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on March 09, 2024, 05:21:56 PMGiven we have 40-ish minutes toward the end of the phase, I think it'd be helpful to know which of those two pairs you're more likely to vote for, so we don't have any super last-minute vote shuffling attempts.
Agree with this. There have been an absurd number of games recently where, like, 50% of the final votes cast are in the last five minutes (not innocent in that regard lol).
Specs
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
Raeko: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 2 (Nakah, Toby)
SpecsFlyer17: 3 (BlackDragonSlayer, ThatHiddenCharacter, mastersuperfan)
25 minutes!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 05:31:36 PMBut I guess what I'm asking is who, from my perspective, do you think should be more human than him? I'm going off of playing several games with Toby recently, where he is very reserved as a human, especially early on, and only tends to make bold moves to prompt reactions from people--remember his prodding of me, A#, and Poet near the end of the tic-tac-toe game? That's what's in my mind; I think it's a demonstration that he's in the mindset of a human, scoping for information rather than coasting under the radar.
The vanilla answer would be "MSF" given that he was the second most human on your list. I don't necessary agree that human Toby makes bold moves
just to prompt reactions from people, and personally I feel like Toby in general is a player who typically seems pretty human to the point where you kinda start to wonder if it's too good to be true. I myself haven't gotten the same vibe from Toby's actions and have felt pretty neutral on him for most of the game up until recently.
Agree to disagree. I'm gonna change my vote to BDS--I can't shake the feeling that these responses are not genuine, and I'd rather both you and me die than Toby and Specs.
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
Raeko: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 3 (Nakah, Toby, TheZeldaPianist275)
SpecsFlyer17: 3 (BlackDragonSlayer, ThatHiddenCharacter, mastersuperfan)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on March 09, 2024, 05:49:25 PMI can't shake the feeling that these responses are not genuine
:thinking:
Your commitment to a KitB definitely gives me pause about you, at the very least—though on the opposite end, it's entirely possible that
both lynches contain a wolf or wolf lover and you're going for what you think is the "better" option to ensure the wolf team's continued survival.
It's not a commitment to a KitB at all lol--my preference would be to take Raeko and MSF down, but if I'm not getting that, you are more suspicious than either Specs or Toby to me. I care more about wolf-hunting than avoiding a KitB
...interesting.
Overall not the worst KitB to be in, given opinions I've already expressed—but I'd much prefer a definitive lynch either way. That way we have more control over the result rather than making it a gamble.
Nakah: 1 (Raeko)
Raeko: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)
BlackDragonSlayer: 3 (Nakah, Toby, TheZeldaPianist275)
SpecsFlyer17: 3 (BlackDragonSlayer, ThatHiddenCharacter, mastersuperfan)
BlackDragonSlayer was lynched by KitB, and TheZeldaPianist275 dies of heartbreak!
It is now D2. Phase ends at 9:00 PM EST/1:00 UTC on March 11. Due to DST, this means the phase is 47 hours long instead of 48.
damnnnnnnnnnnnn
Deathpost (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4SQj8Ua3kM)
Deathpost (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOMj7WttkOA)
guys it's just like romeo & juliet
I can't say I'm particularly happy about this outcome. At this point, I feel relatively confident that if BDS and TZP were both human, than the wolves are either Toby/raeko or Specs/raeko. I fully trust msf right now, and I decently trust Nakah. I'd like to hear more from Toby and raeko, though, they've gone relatively silent in the latter half of that phase.
Some thoughts about yesterday. I was at an event yesterday evening so I wasn't as involved as I would have liked to be.
THC generally plays pretty stubbornly. He latches onto an opinion and sticks to it.
Post 100, MSF claimed he didn't feel overly compelled to lynch me. What changed?
TZP's actions to create the KitB agree with his suspicion list (Toby 1, me 4 (with 1 being least suspicious)), although I'll take a look more at his move to create the KitB in a bit.
Nahak in post 107 revealed that him and THC are lovers, but that was already deduced in the thread beforehand. Maybe chalk it to being afk, but that seems like a potential wolfy move- not reading that thread before posting something that benefits their agenda.
TZPs change of vote to the BDS KitB seems consistent with his thoughts on post 133, stating that he wouldn't object to BDS going down.
THC, I am curious about your shift to the BDS vote in post 146. You claimed that it was to get rid of TZP; why did you feel that TZP was worthy of being lynched?
Post 147, MSF states that Toby/Specs is the only pair that hasn't come under scrutiny, which honestly seemed to spark a ton of action. Less than a few hours later, we were the top canidate to be lynched.
MSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.
THC in post 161, you claim I was your initial gut reaction? Was I? I recall you being fairly town-leaning on me for most of D1.
With a 3 way KitB (which was a result of THC's vote on me), THC says that someone needs to change their vote to get control over the situation. That's an odd thing to say when their vote was the exact reason the situation existed. Especially given their stance of not being willing to change the vote.
I find it very strange how much traction a Specs lynch suddenly got simply for not having being looked at before
Now I'd like to analyze TZP's last-minute vote change to the KitB.
Prior to his vote change, his vote was on raeko, with Toby/Specs leading the pack at 3 votes. TZP/BDS had 2 votes, so the only influential move he could've made was creating the KitB between TZP/BDS and Toby/Specs, which he did.
From a statistical standpoint (random distribution) and assuming TZP is human, I'm not sure this move makes sense. On page 1, we discussed the probabilities of a given human being paired with a wolf: 2/3 chance your partner is a human, 1/3 chance it's a wolf. So from that angle, self-preservation makes sense, and TZP should've not gambled on himself getting killed.
So, there was clearly another motivation behind his vote change. One, he could've just felt strong enough about human!Toby and human!Specs that he was willing to take a risk that wolf!BDS was his partner. That's consistent with his suspicion list, as Toby was his least-suspicious, and I was in the middle of the pack. Still, I think his suspicions regarding the possibilities above must've been very strong to cause him to change his vote.
I'm not sure it makes any sense for wolf!TZP to do what he did. The only scenario where that makes any sense would be if wolf!TZP's partner wolf existed in the Toby/Specs lover pair. That's inconsistent with his suspicion list. Furthermore, the net result is still even, as it was either wolf!Toby/wolf!Specs that died, or wolf!TZP.
Given all of that, human!TZP seems like overwhelmingly the likely option. If that is true, statistically he took down another human (2/3 chance an H-H), but it could've been wolf!BDS.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 09:49:40 AMPost 100, MSF claimed he didn't feel overly compelled to lynch me. What changed?
once I found out you and Toby were lovers, I didn't want to lynch you then because I had a decently solid townread on Toby. given BDS/TZP vs. Toby/Specs, I would've lynched BDS/TZP if Toby was the only one of those four I townread. however, after seeing BDS and TZP both say that they'd be willing to go down with each other, I townread both of them more strongly than before. it could have been a ruse on their parts, but BDS didn't fight very hard to stay alive (he didn't communicate with me about voting Specs) (and we know now that TZP really was willing to go down with the ship). because of that, and because of Toby's hasty last minute vote (which, I think, THC rightly sussed), I felt the odds of hitting a wolf were better by lynching Toby/Specs. it was close, though, and I didn't feel too bad about the kitb because I would've been fine to take the outcome either way.
---
in the interest of kicking off voting discussion as early as possible, because I think we need all the time we can get, I'm going to vote
raeko. this is something I was already thinking of doing since yesterday — probabilistically this might not seem like the soundest move, but given that we have only 3 pairs now instead of 4, and given my current reads, I actually think this is the highest expected value move from where I'm at.
here are PM conversations with raeko and with THC that give the context for this:
PMs with raeko
Quote from: raeko on March 09, 2024, 10:53:53 AMIs there a reason to go after the partner instead of the wolf?
I just voted for Nakah because I'm not going to be around much today and I needed to get a vote out.
I could see TZP being UTR as well and would be willing to vote there. They gave a lot of reads but little reasoning
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 11:15:06 AMah I meant that I felt like I was going for the partners out of necessity because I didn't have good reads on the other players themselves, and was just trying to go for the most sus among Toby/THC/Specs while hoping to maybe catch a wolf partner as collateral damage
I have a slight townread on TZP but I see where you're coming from. I worry about BDS.
if we lynch THC/Nakah today, there's a chance I consider voting ourselves tomorrow, depending on how the dynamics go. I'm worried about the world where you're a wolf
Quote from: raeko on March 09, 2024, 11:24:25 AMI'm not going to consider voting you until we are final 4. Even if you are a wolf I just don't think it's worth rushing it
(Nakah comes in and becomes active)
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 03:37:50 PMwhat do you think of Nakah's most recent posts?
you mentioned you thought TZP might be UTR — are you willing to push for a BDS/TZP vote before phase end? it seems like a more tractable vote than THC/Nakah, I'm still not sure whether I want to lynch THC, and I think wolf!BDS or wolf!TZP will be more dangerous on day 2 than wolf!THC or wolf!Nakah given how distanced BDS/TZP have been from the meat of the action this round.
(no response from raeko as of yet)
PMs with THC
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:18:34 PMwho do you think the most likely wolf pairings are?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:32:10 PMI could see it being either Toby with raeko or TZP or Specs with raeko or TZP. As of now, I think I'm more inclined for Toby/raeko. To list them in order:
Toby/raeko
Toby/TZP
Specs/raeko
Specs/TZP
Clearly, out of the four of them, Toby and raeko are my top individual contenders for wolves, as well.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:34:16 PMthanks. I just reached the same conclusion, with the added possibility of raeko/BDS (what Nakah suspects). the possibility of raeko/BDS bothers me because raeko said earlier today she would be willing to vote TZP out, but hasn't responded since then after the pairings have come out and I asked her to help push a charge against TZP/BDS. she hasn't responded to anything nat all so I don't know what she's doing. I'm sus of her.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:38:07 PMI'm worried that raeko/TZP could also be a pair and they're distancing. I'm lowkey tempted to off myself to kill raeko
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:44:36 PMI think I might actually off myself
if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:
TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs
voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:44:21 PMThat is certainly a possibility. I will say, though, that is Toby/Specs is lynched this phase, raeko is likely to get my vote next phase, so it might still be worth sticking with Toby/Specs for now.
Currently, you and Nakah are the only ones I feel comfortable about. You in particular, your recent plays scream town, I feel very confident in you at this point.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:48:47 PMit might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow.
in short, my reasons are:
- I have very high trust in THC right now because I townread him, people I townread townread him, and I can't see him being paired with basically anyone (except maybe raeko in a rare world). currently THC and I also both townread Nakah after he became more active — for me, in particular, the fact that Nakah sussed BDS who had basically gone UTR the whole round. given that I townread TZP (and I agreed with most of TZP's strategy and reads) and TZP's ending play reveals him as most likely human, I think (given TZP's large suspicion) there's a decent case that BDS is a wolf, which would make Nakah look good.
- if Nakah had wanted to go for an easy lynch, I think he would've joined the me/raeko wagon, and had ample reasoning to do so (in fact I'm surprised he
didn't?) —
unless Nakah was paired with raeko, which also contributes to why I want to lynch raeko today. I think there was a consensus in the thread that Nakah/raeko was probably no longer a wolf pair, but I'm not sure it's implausible that it was an intentional distancing effort by both of them to vote each other. raeko's meta sus (which nobody else here can really refute) and Nakah's "I'm going to put a likewise unsure kind of vote on her as a reaction test" kind of bothers me. I don't think this is the most likely possibility, but I think this is the most sensible world where Nakah is a wolf
- if THC and Nakah aren't among the wolves, that means that the wolves are between raeko, BDS, TZP, Toby and Specs. for reasons that Specs mentioned, TZP as a wolf doesn't make much sense: if the wolves were TZP/raeko, TZP would have let Toby/Specs die; if TZP/Toby, Toby wouldn't have lynched TZP; and TZP/Specs is plausible, but I can't help but feel like TZP would have been able to swing it a different way earlier. it is one possible pairing, though.
- BDS/Toby and BDS/Specs don't make sense either, because BDS could have very easily just pushed onto me/raeko instead of Toby/Specs.
- raeko/Specs is probably not it because Specs left a vote on raeko and dipped at a time where raeko was most likely to be lynched.
- so the possibilities in my head are basically: raeko/BDS, raeko/Toby, raeko/Nakah, or TZP/Specs. thus, I want to sacrifice myself today to take raeko down with me.
- if nothing else, I also feel like her response to me asking "there's a chance I consider voting ourselves tomorrow" was a little overly buddying, which made me a bit uncomfortable.
---
if anyone thinks I'm tunneled, please do let me know, because I'd love to hear a case for why I'm paranoid and wrong. I've been going crazy wondering whether this is really the best move
Quote from: Nakah on March 09, 2024, 02:55:44 PMSorry, we're in EDT lol....but that last post by ZeldaPianist is very suspicious, because I feel town check for THC, who is my paired lover, and I don't feel town check for Raeko/MSF.....Both of which are being a bit inactive until probably the last second as wolves do.
I'm willing to bet right now that MSF is more Town than Raeko....but I don't want to push a vote on Raeko.
I'm feeling right now that the possible wolf team may be BDS and Raeko....I'm therefore keeping my vote on BDS for now.
Nakah, why didn't you want to vote for raeko?
Similar to TZP voting himself out, MSF deliberately taking himself down strikes me as human-play, assuming he sticks with it.
Of course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don't think this is the case, however.
If it's genuine, its a gamble on raeko being a wolf. MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 09:49:40 AMTHC in post 161, you claim I was your initial gut reaction?
No, Toby was. But voting Toby wouldn't have achieved anything at that point, so I voted you. I'll respond to the rest later, I don't have much time right now.
Sorry been busy today for Mother's Day in U.K.
I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today. I wasn't a fan of how she agreed with the Specs vote and some of her back and fourth with Nakah didn't seem too genuine
THC I'm human leaning on for calling out the Specs vote, and pushing against me for it
Nakah I want to human lean on at the moment for the amount of effort he was putting in to defend himself. I also want to believe he'd be more careful as a wolf with some of his word choice, and swapping his votes around was a bit too obviously suspicious.
Mastersuperfan I'm giving strong town leans for
I'm a bit neutral on Specs at moment, I'd like to lean human on him for giving Master praise, but it doesn't matter too much if we end up lynching Master via Raeko anyway
Sorry I have also been busy. I have long been an advocate of not having EoD on Saturday nights because I have this problem a lot.
MSF, I still don't understand the point of you voting for me now instead of waiting? Why are you already voting for me when even if we mislynch we still have another phase? Like I just don't think this is the right move. Even if you thought I was a wolf that strongly it just makes more sense to keep yourself alive as long as possible. Cause once we are dead the wolves will have even more control over the game
Quote from: Toby on March 10, 2024, 03:19:36 PMSorry been busy today for Mother's Day in U.K.
I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today. I wasn't a fan of how she agreed with the Specs vote and some of her back and fourth with Nakah didn't seem too genuine
Mastersuperfan I'm giving strong town leans for
You only have a town lean on nakah, and a strong town read on MSF. You think me/nakah interactions are strange, why vote for me over Nakah? You'd also be killing your top town if you lynch me. so that doesn't really make sense to me
Sorry I'll be around more starting tonight
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:08:07 PMif nothing else, I also feel like her response to me asking "there's a chance I consider voting ourselves tomorrow" was a little overly buddying, which made me a bit uncomfortable.
I got a chance to read this now and I'm still on my phone so I won't respond point for point until I'm at my pc, but just to respond to this quick...
We are lovers lol to say a PM I sent you felt "buddying" is a huge stretch. It's a PM I sent to my lover in the game so like yeah? How is this a point against me? If you thought I was buddying with a wolf then sure. But I don't get this at all
But either way I said that because I think voting yourself out in TWG is a bad play in almost every conceivable situation, including a lovers game that isn't in lylo. I think it's a bad play and I wouldn't consider doing it, so that's why I responded that way. I don't see how that is buddying or what you are extrapolating from that message but that's just how I look at the game
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 02:02:50 PMOf course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don't think this is the case, however.
I think it's been clear for a while that if I were going to get lynched, it would probably be because of raeko, and not me. if I wanted to not get lynched, I seriously doubt this would be the way to do it
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 02:02:50 PMgiven his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.
does it make sense from your pov?
Quote from: Toby on March 10, 2024, 03:19:36 PMI'm a bit neutral on Specs at moment, I'd like to lean human on him for giving Master praise, but it doesn't matter too much if we end up lynching Master via Raeko anyway
given that most players thus far have read me as town, why does this make you want to lean human on Specs?
raeko, if not you, what do you think the most likely wolf pairs are? who would you want to vote today instead?
Quote from: raeko on March 10, 2024, 04:06:34 PMWhy are you already voting for me when even if we mislynch we still have another phase?
Quite an assumption to make. That's only the case if one of TZP/BDS was a wolf, and we don't know that for certain. But you said this twice in two separate posts (the other saying we are not in LYLO as if it's a known fact). The only way you could know for certain that we got a wolf with the last lynch was if you were a wolf and your partner died.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 04:43:23 PMraeko, if not you, what do you think the most likely wolf pairs are? who would you want to vote today instead?
Not IF not me. NOT me. First of all I'm not a wolf. Second of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well. so yeah not going to do that
And I'm not going to vote for you either for the same reasons. If the game is still going next phase, then I will consider lynching you, because that is when it would matter to win the game and my self sacrifice would be more beneficial
So that leaves me with Specs, Toby, Nakah and THC. At this point I think I lean Toby but I haven't been able to read the thread very closely. Like I missed a bunch of posts from EoD. and now I have to play games with some people that I planned last week, but after games tonight I will give the thread a thorough read over
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 04:58:48 PMQuite an assumption to make. That's only the case if one of TZP/BDS was a wolf, and we don't know that for certain. But you said this twice in two separate posts (the other saying we are not in LYLO as if it's a known fact). The only way you could know for certain that we got a wolf with the last lynch was if you were a wolf and your partner died.
I haven't played in a lover's game or such a small game in a long time (the last small game I played was a lone wolf game) I just assumed we had another phase still. I haven't been in lylo in a second phase probably ever so it just didn't occur to me that we could already be there. Also was playing while trying to be social IRL and not be rude so wasn't really putting my entire brain energy toward the game (I'm home now though :D)
Quote from: raeko on March 10, 2024, 05:03:23 PMSecond of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well.
That's straight up not true, as already stated near the beginning of the game. You still win, even if you die, if your team wins. Sacrificing yourself to get rid of a wolf is not only a viable strategy, but a relatively common one.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 05:09:34 PMThat's straight up not true, as already stated near the beginning of the game. You still win, even if you die, if your team wins. Sacrificing yourself to get rid of a wolf is not only a viable strategy, but a relatively common one.
I know that you still win if your team wins, but eliminating yourself as a human is removing human control over the game. So you better be pretty damn sure your lover is a wolf. And since it's not a sure thing that your partner is a wolf so you could be eliminating two humans
But I was operating under the assumption that we had more time. It's different at the end of the game. Sacrificing yourself might be necessary at that point. I'm going to have to more seriously consider if MSF could be wolfing if we could be in lylo
Votecount:
Raeko: 1 (mastersuperfan)
Still half of the phase left!
continuing to stand by my post, but since we may be in lylo I'm going to unvote for now to avoid the possibility of an insta in case there's a world I overlooked with two alive wolves. will be back in the morning
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 08:05:58 PMcontinuing to stand by my post, but since we may be in lylo I'm going to unvote for now to avoid the possibility of an insta in case there's a world I overlooked with two alive wolves. will be back in the morning
(*two alive non-raeko wolves)
Ok, so before msf went to bed, he asked me to post this on his behalf because he wanted to wait a little bit longer for people to respond to the thread, but didn't want to risk waiting too long so that there wouldn't be enough time to properly discuss this with everyone before phase end. He knew I'd be awake, so that's why he asked me. Also, I would just like to preface by saying that I have not read this post yet, and I will not be reading it until after I have posted, so as to not have an unfair advantage on anyone else.
msf's Great Wall
sorry for causing a bit of a stir. full explanation below:
I have, and have had, no intention of lynching raeko today. this was a reaction test. I told my plan to THC in advance at the beginning of d2, along with my post-d1 suslist:
PMs to THC
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:25:34 AMI'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately
by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up
curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.
I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)
I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.
some more thoughts:
- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.
- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)
- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.
- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.
- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...
if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.
in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.
in short, my wolf pairs tier list:
highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs
pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby
plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs
not very plausible:
everything else
in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.
I'm sus of Specs.
I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:32:30 AMlooks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:48:04 AMI don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.
other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.
I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:09:19 PMposted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:13:34 PMif I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.
mainly, because Specs wanted to vote raeko yesterday and seemed reluctant to townread me post-lynch (although in hindsight I may have overexaggerated the latter in my head), and Nakah sussed both raeko and me yesterday, I expected that one or both of them would try to push for a me/raeko vote today.
here's my real reasoning. most of it is the same as I stated in my fake votepost, but there are a few key differences that are noted (and some updates since I PM'ed THC my suslist):
THC: I trust THC strongly, for the same reasons as before. I won't consider him in any of the wolf pairings below
TZP: as I stated before, TZP's suicide play basically rules him out as a wolf except for the possibility of TZP/Specs as wolves (wolf!TZP wouldn't have forced the kitb unless his partner was Specs or Toby, and Toby was one of the people who voted TZP).
BDS: BDS/Toby or BDS/Specs seem implausible because BDS could've pushed me/raeko. BDS/Nakah seems implausible because Nakah started the BDS lynch train and got him lynched (although maybe it was a distancing attempt and he didn't actually expect it'd take off? but that seems extremely risky if he couldn't be around phase end). this leaves BDS/raeko, which I think is most likely the only world where either BDS or raeko is a wolf
raeko: raeko/Specs seems implausible because Specs voted raeko and left at a time when she was a big contender to be voted, less than 2 hours from phase end. raeko/Toby seems quite unlikely because d2, Toby stated he was leaning toward a raeko lynch after I voted, which seems pretty likely to snowball into a wagon. now, raeko/Nakah is possible, but highly unlikely, I think, because (a) raeko wanted to lynch THC early in d1, (b) raeko left a vote on Nakah and dipped for the rest of the phase (which seems highly risky if you can't be around phase end), and (c) Nakah's sus list set him up to push me/raeko after lynching BDS and it would look really strange if he didn't. this just leaves raeko/BDS.
Nakah, Specs, Toby: the remaining pairs are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah.
I mentioned in my votepost that I didn't think Nakah was a wolf with anyone other than raeko because he would've just pushed the me/raeko wagon instead, but I think this logic is wrong and I wanted to see if anyone would call me out on it. at the time the votes were basically uniformly split, and raeko only had one vote (TZP) which was a pressure vote. in other words, the wagon didn't really exist yet, and for a Nakah paired with Specs or Toby, pushing sus onto BDS (while saying they thought BDS and raeko were the wolves, to set up for a d2 me/raeko lynch - even though you already wolfchecked both of us d1 but not TZP??) would be a way to get a "harder" lynch off on a potentially UTR wolf (BDS), which would look townier than getting an easy lynch on a more obvious target who's been sussed for short posts and inactivity.
Nakah has set himself up in a position where it'd be very natural for him to push me/raeko today. now, this is very circumstantial, and I don't wolfread Nakah for this alone; from my pov raeko/BDS is also a possibility, and human!Nakah would be consistent with this behavior in this case.
however, I currently wolfread Specs. I got worried about him pushing both me/raeko out today to secure a win based on his comment, which is what prompted me to do the reaction test:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 09:49:40 AMMSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.
and while I think this an okay comment and I may have gotten a little too paranoid about it (given that he also questioned Nakah and THC in said post), ultimately his response to my vote is what made me wolfread him:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 02:02:50 PMSimilar to TZP voting himself out, MSF deliberately taking himself down strikes me as human-play, assuming he sticks with it.
Of course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don't think this is the case, however.
If it's genuine, its a gamble on raeko being a wolf. MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.
specifically — it's extremely avoidant on making any sort of stance or claim about my vote. he spends almost all of it talking about how it reflects on my own sus (which I think is less the important issue, given that I've been highly townread by everyone other than Specs, Nakah, and to some extent raeko), and virtually none of it addressing what I said about raeko. all he says is, "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." from my perspective - what about yours? given that you voted raeko yesterday, I'm surprised that you have nothing else to say - not about whether you agree/disagree with any of what I said, not about whether or not you are still sus of raeko or not.
this strikes me as an extremely cautious middle ground — not wanting to disincentive me from going through with it, but not wanting to agree too strongly and seem wolfy. I think town!Specs, who
sussed and voted raeko yesterday right before phase end, would be significantly more interested in the question of whether raeko's a wolf, not me. because of this, you're currently my main wolfread.
(meanwhile Toby, first thing, just says "I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today." with a reason attached. this could be a play be wolf!Toby with partner wolf!Nakah to secure the win, but it reads to me as substantially less cautious and more of a human's stream of consciousness.)
(I also think Specs and Nakah as wolf partners makes sense to me — namely that both of them have expressed sus on raeko and have been a little more focused than everyone else on me as a potential wolf, and I think that Nakah voting BDS and Specs voting raeko makes sense as a distancing play at a time when it didn't seem like either THC/Nakah or Specs/Toby was particularly at risk. but this is only one of the worlds for why I want to lynch them)
---
I haven't particularly wolfread raeko before today, and I do read her reaction so far as relatively town. I think the lylo slip THC pointed out is definitely a bad look, and it did give me pause as to whether the wolves were simply raeko/BDS. but I do think it'd be a really novice mistake to make? the fact that she hasn't been paying attention (which generally seems true) and wasn't aware we were in lylo seems at least as believable to me as it being a wolfslip. I think she'd have to not be paying attention to make that slip regardless of alignment.
I do read her reaction as human too, based on how desperate it seems:
Quote from: raeko on March 10, 2024, 05:03:23 PMNot IF not me. NOT me. First of all I'm not a wolf. Second of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well. so yeah not going to do that
I'm sending this off to THC before I see what she continues to post tonight, but if she does indeed defend herself, I think she's likely town. I don't think that a not-very-active wolf!raeko with a dead wolf!BDS partner would be as desperate not to die (and she also has expressed some willingness to self-sacrifice d3).
ultimately, reads are fallible - but in the end, the possible pairs in my mind are: raeko/BDS, Toby/Nakah, Specs/Nakah, and Specs/TZP. even disregarding reads, probabilistically (given uniform distribution over wolf pairs) my preferred voting order is Specs/Toby > THC/Nakah > me/raeko, in a 3 : 2 : 1 ratio. to a first-order approximation, this means I would have to think that wolf!raeko is three times more likely than either wolf!Specs or wolf!Toby... which, no, I don't.
(by the way, the "raeko's buddying made me uncomfortable" line was pulled out my ass.)
between my fake votepost and the time I'm writing this, nobody has come to raeko's defense. could be a raeko/BDS world, but if nobody calls this out, I'd be much more scared of a world where wolves are pushing a bad vote to win.
---
btw, I actually redacted some parts of my PMs with THC to execute the reaction test. see the full PMs here (redacted parts in bold):
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:44:36 PMI think I might actually off myself
if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:
TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs
voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.
if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:48:47 PMthe downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.
it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think
I woke up earlier than expected.
in the interest of making it visible (and of updating the presented state of affairs slightly after seeing nobody came back yesterday), I'm going to repost what I sennt to THC below.
feel free to skip reading the spoiler-tagged part of THC's post, which is mostly just copied below.--
sorry for causing a bit of a stir. full explanation below:
I have, and have had, no intention of lynching raeko today. this was a reaction test. I told my plan to THC in advance at the beginning of d2, along with my post-d1 suslist:
PMs to THC
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:25:34 AMI'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately
by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up
curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.
I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)
I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.
some more thoughts:
- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.
- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)
- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.
- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.
- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...
if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.
in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.
in short, my wolf pairs tier list:
highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs
pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby
plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs
not very plausible:
everything else
in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.
I'm sus of Specs.
I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:32:30 AMlooks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:48:04 AMI don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.
other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.
I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:09:19 PMposted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:13:34 PMif I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.
mainly, because Specs wanted to vote raeko yesterday and seemed reluctant to townread me post-lynch (although in hindsight I may have overexaggerated the latter in my head), and Nakah sussed both raeko and me yesterday, I expected that one or both of them would try to push for a me/raeko vote today.
here's my real reasoning. most of it is the same as I stated in my fake votepost, but there are a few key differences that are noted (and some updates since I PM'ed THC my suslist):
THC: I trust THC strongly, for the same reasons as before. I won't consider him in any of the wolf pairings below
TZP: as I stated before, TZP's suicide play basically rules him out as a wolf except for the possibility of TZP/Specs as wolves (wolf!TZP wouldn't have forced the kitb unless his partner was Specs or Toby, and Toby was one of the people who voted TZP).
BDS: BDS/Toby or BDS/Specs seem implausible because BDS could've pushed me/raeko. BDS/Nakah seems implausible because Nakah started the BDS lynch train and got him lynched (although maybe it was a distancing attempt and he didn't actually expect it'd take off? but that seems extremely risky if he couldn't be around phase end). this leaves BDS/raeko, which I think is most likely the only world where either BDS or raeko is a wolf
raeko: raeko/Specs seems implausible because Specs voted raeko and left at a time when she was a big contender to be voted, less than 2 hours from phase end. raeko/Toby seems quite unlikely because d2, Toby stated he was leaning toward a raeko lynch after I voted, which seems pretty likely to snowball into a wagon. now, raeko/Nakah is possible, but highly unlikely, I think, because (a) raeko wanted to lynch THC early in d1, (b) raeko left a vote on Nakah and dipped for the rest of the phase (which seems highly risky if you can't be around phase end), and (c) Nakah's sus list set him up to push me/raeko after lynching BDS and it would look really strange if he didn't. this just leaves raeko/BDS.
Nakah, Specs, Toby: the remaining pairs are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah.
I mentioned in my votepost that I didn't think Nakah was a wolf with anyone other than raeko because he would've just pushed the me/raeko wagon instead, but I think this logic is wrong and I wanted to see if anyone would call me out on it. at the time the votes were basically uniformly split, and raeko only had one vote (TZP) which was a pressure vote. in other words, the wagon didn't really exist yet, and for a Nakah paired with Specs or Toby, pushing sus onto BDS (while saying they thought BDS and raeko were the wolves, to set up for a d2 me/raeko lynch - even though you already wolfchecked both of us d1 but not TZP??) would be a way to get a "harder" lynch off on a potentially UTR wolf (BDS), which would look townier than getting an easy lynch on a more obvious target who's been sussed for short posts and inactivity.
Nakah has set himself up in a position where it'd be very natural for him to push me/raeko today. now, this is very circumstantial, and I don't wolfread Nakah for this alone; from my pov raeko/BDS is also a possibility, and human!Nakah would be consistent with this behavior in this case.
however, I currently wolfread Specs. I got worried about him pushing both me/raeko out today to secure a win based on his comment, which is what prompted me to do the reaction test:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 09:49:40 AMMSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.
and while I think this an okay comment and I may have gotten a little too paranoid about it (given that he also questioned Nakah and THC in said post), ultimately his response to my vote is what made me wolfread him:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 02:02:50 PMSimilar to TZP voting himself out, MSF deliberately taking himself down strikes me as human-play, assuming he sticks with it.
Of course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don't think this is the case, however.
If it's genuine, its a gamble on raeko being a wolf. MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.
specifically — it's extremely avoidant on making any sort of stance or claim about my vote. he spends almost all of it talking about how it reflects on my own sus (which I think is less the important issue, given that I've been highly townread by everyone other than Specs, Nakah, and to some extent raeko), and virtually none of it addressing what I said about raeko. all he says is, "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." from my perspective - what about yours? given that you voted raeko yesterday, I'm surprised that you have nothing else to say - not about whether you agree/disagree with any of what I said, not about whether or not you are still sus of raeko or not.
this strikes me as an extremely cautious middle ground — not wanting to disincentive me from going through with it, but not wanting to agree too strongly and seem wolfy. I think town!Specs, who
sussed and voted raeko yesterday right before phase end, would be significantly more interested in the question of whether raeko's a wolf, not me. because of this, you're currently my main wolfread.
(meanwhile Toby, first thing, just says "I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today." with a reason attached. this could be a play be wolf!Toby with partner wolf!Nakah to secure the win, but it reads to me as substantially less cautious and more of a human's stream of consciousness.)
(I also think Specs and Nakah as wolf partners makes sense to me — namely that both of them have expressed sus on raeko and have been a little more focused than everyone else on me as a potential wolf, and I think that Nakah voting BDS and Specs voting raeko makes sense as a distancing play at a time when it didn't seem like either THC/Nakah or Specs/Toby was particularly at risk. but this is only one of the worlds for why I want to lynch them)
---
I haven't particularly wolfread raeko before today, and I do read her reaction so far as relatively town. I think the lylo slip THC pointed out is definitely a bad look, and it did give me pause as to whether the wolves were simply raeko/BDS. but I do think it'd be a really novice mistake to make? the fact that she hasn't been paying attention (which generally seems true) and wasn't aware we were in lylo seems at least as believable to me as it being a wolfslip. I think she'd have to not be paying attention to make that slip regardless of alignment.
I do read her reaction as human too, based on how desperate it seems:
Quote from: raeko on March 10, 2024, 05:03:23 PMNot IF not me. NOT me. First of all I'm not a wolf. Second of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well. so yeah not going to do that
I don't think that a not-very-active wolf!raeko with a dead wolf!BDS partner would be as desperate not to die (and she also has expressed some willingness to self-sacrifice d3). she didn't come back to finish defending herself last night like she said, although I don't think availability is very alignment indicative.
ultimately, reads are fallible - but in the end, the possible pairs in my mind are: raeko/BDS, Toby/Nakah, Specs/Nakah, and Specs/TZP. even disregarding reads, probabilistically (given uniform distribution over wolf pairs) my preferred voting order is Specs/Toby > THC/Nakah > me/raeko, in a 3 : 2 : 1 ratio. to a first-order approximation, this means I would have to think that wolf!raeko is three times more likely than either wolf!Specs or wolf!Toby... which, no, I don't.
(by the way, the "raeko's buddying made me uncomfortable" line was pulled out my ass.)
between my fake votepost and the time I'm writing this, nobody has come to raeko's defense. could be a raeko/BDS world, but if nobody calls this out, I'd be much more scared of a world where wolves are pushing a bad vote to win.
---
btw, I actually redacted some parts of my PMs with THC to execute the reaction test. see the full PMs here (redacted parts in bold):
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:44:36 PMI think I might actually off myself
if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:
TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs
voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.
if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:48:47 PMthe downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.
it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think BDS will be on board. I don't know if Nakah will be on board.
(I didn't realize I sent the same thing about shooting town in the foot to THC twice oops lol)
(by the way, I also PM'ed my tentative plans to kill myself and raeko last-second to BDS, who didn't respond)
afterward, though, TZP pulled his suicide play, which removed all possibility in my mind of raeko/TZP wolves - hence not wanting to lynch raeko anymore.
tl;dr wolfread Specs, don't really wolfread raeko. I only see raeko's partner being BDS and I think it's much more likely there's a wolf in the Specs/Toby pair, particularly Specs.
I'll be voting for Specs now.
I don't entirely hate the idea of dying this phase. I feel pretty neutral about Toby, so I'd rather see it go somewhere else.
Has anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.
I'd be okay with THC-Nakah or MSF-raeko going down this phase.
Looking at the D1 vote, raeko held a vote on Nakah, while Nakah was a part of the BDS vote. Not sure there's a whole lot to draw out from that alone.
I think Nahak probably has a better chance of going down given raeko's D1 vote, so Nakah for now. Mainly to break up the potential THC/MSF wolf pair that I'm very suspicious of.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 11, 2024, 07:10:56 AMHas anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.
While that is certainly a possibility, why would I have defended you so vehemently towards the beginning of the game if that were the case? All it did was bring unnecessary suspicion on myself, and it's not like you're my or msf's lover. I very much almost got myself and Nakah lynched, and I was not planning on backing down.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 11, 2024, 07:10:56 AMI don't entirely hate the idea of dying this phase. I feel pretty neutral about Toby, so I'd rather see it go somewhere else.
where would you see it most rather go and why? I want to see you actually put forth a position today, because the fact that you still haven't is why I'm sussing you
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 11, 2024, 07:10:56 AMHas anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.
strictly speaking it's possible, but it would be an extremely elaborate setup. given just how much THC and I have interacted this game (first the whole chunk of time where I pushed on him as my biggest wolfread, then we both hop our votes around from each others' lovers to BDS to Specs, then we fully trust each other and communicate heavily over PM), I think it'd be incredibly on the nose for us to pull this as wolves. I've been townread by BDS, TZP, and Toby, and while that's isn't everyone, I think THC
has basically been universally townread. it'd be giving us a lot of credit and everyone else a lot of flak :p
if THC/MSF
really bothers you, I don't dislike the idea of lynching THC/Nakah either, since I find raeko/Specs and raeko/Toby unlikely. depending on how you/Toby end up reading raeko, I worry that this will cause us to get into a kitb d3 with me/raeko voting against you/Specs, but that's far better to me than the possibility of losing to Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah today.
^ I mean, I guess I'm not actually sure that solves anything, because if the wolves are me/THC then voting THC/Nakah today and you/Toby tomorrow means we would still win if we were wolves. but the point still stands that I'd be fine (though not extremely happy) voting THC/Nakah if it came to it.
---
double ninja'd. Specs has given a position even if there's not very much backing it up I guess
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 10, 2024, 10:19:19 AMNow I'd like to analyze TZP's last-minute vote change to the KitB.
Prior to his vote change, his vote was on raeko, with Toby/Specs leading the pack at 3 votes. TZP/BDS had 2 votes, so the only influential move he could've made was creating the KitB between TZP/BDS and Toby/Specs, which he did.
From a statistical standpoint (random distribution) and assuming TZP is human, I'm not sure this move makes sense. On page 1, we discussed the probabilities of a given human being paired with a wolf: 2/3 chance your partner is a human, 1/3 chance it's a wolf. So from that angle, self-preservation makes sense, and TZP should've not gambled on himself getting killed.
So, there was clearly another motivation behind his vote change. One, he could've just felt strong enough about human!Toby and human!Specs that he was willing to take a risk that wolf!BDS was his partner. That's consistent with his suspicion list, as Toby was his least-suspicious, and I was in the middle of the pack. Still, I think his suspicions regarding the possibilities above must've been very strong to cause him to change his vote.
I'm not sure it makes any sense for wolf!TZP to do what he did. The only scenario where that makes any sense would be if wolf!TZP's partner wolf existed in the Toby/Specs lover pair. That's inconsistent with his suspicion list. Furthermore, the net result is still even, as it was either wolf!Toby/wolf!Specs that died, or wolf!TZP.
Given all of that, human!TZP seems like overwhelmingly the likely option. If that is true, statistically he took down another human (2/3 chance an H-H), but it could've been wolf!BDS.
tbh not sure if I love this analysis, particularly the part in bold. I think if TZP is a wolf with a partner between Specs and Toby, TZP has a lot to gain from killing himself and taking BDS down with him. for one, BDS was the biggest advocate for lynching Specs/Toby in the first place, so killing BDS meant Specs/Toby would be in much less danger d2. meanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking TZP down, and BDS wanted to push TZP as his next option after Toby/Specs - and if Toby/Specs were lynched d1, both Nakah and BDS would be around d2 to make that push.
if TZP/Specs or TZP/Toby are wolves, TZP's self-sacrifice there is a potentially winning play.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 11, 2024, 07:39:38 AMmeanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking BDS down
fixed
I think TZP/Specs looms larger in my mind than Specs/Nakah now
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 11, 2024, 07:39:38 AMtbh not sure if I love this analysis, particularly the part in bold. I think if TZP is a wolf with a partner between Specs and Toby, TZP has a lot to gain from killing himself and taking BDS down with him. for one, BDS was the biggest advocate for lynching Specs/Toby in the first place, so killing BDS meant Specs/Toby would be in much less danger d2. meanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking TZP down, and BDS wanted to push TZP as his next option after Toby/Specs - and if Toby/Specs were lynched d1, both Nakah and BDS would be around d2 to make that push.
if TZP/Specs or TZP/Toby are wolves, TZP's self-sacrifice there is a potentially winning play.
and if TZP survived the kitb and Toby/Specs died, he'd look extremely human.
I think TZP's move actually makes the
most sense if he's a wolf partner with Specs or Toby rather than if he were a human.
I was already thinking that voting Toby/Specs is (from my viewpoint), statistically the best lynch option. I don't really townlean on raeko like msf does, but Specs' posts lately just have not been holding much water with me. I honestly can see town!Toby reaction testing with that Specs vote at the beginning, but I still feel that the Tobecs duo is the best lynch option for today. At this point, I doubt it would be raeko/Nakah, and I'm fairly confident in msf as town, so logically that would leave Toby/Specs as being the best option to vote for. However, I will withhold my vote for now. If we are wrong, then me voting now would risk a wolf rush if both wolves are still alive.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 11, 2024, 07:30:34 AMI mean, I guess I'm not actually sure that solves anything, because if the wolves are me/THC then voting THC/Nakah today and you/Toby tomorrow means we would still win if we were wolves. but the point still stands that I'd be fine (though not extremely happy) voting THC/Nakah if it came to it.
But why would everyone by default go with toby tomorrow instead of one of us...?
If you and THC are the wolves, we still win by lynching THC today and you tomorrow. I'm not sure what you mean by this ending paragraph
Votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 1 (mastersuperfan)
Nakah: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)
A little over eight hours left!
I don't love any of the analysing of TZP being possibly a wolf at this point, I think it's pretty obvious he was a human
I don't love mfs throwing an early reaction test vote on Raeko, when mfs voted myself/specs at end of last day for not being looked at after a reaction test
@mfs why did you choose to vote Specs over voting BDS yesterday?
I'll post this pm I got from Specs after I voted him for anyone else to analyse:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 08, 2024, 07:37:33 AMHello fellow lover. Hopefully my wife doesn't see this lol.
I don't hate your vote on me, although it strikes me as more of a reaction test, both for me and everyone else.
As mentioned in the thread, human!Toby see's me as 1/3 chance wolf, 2/3 chance human, and I see you as 1/3 chance wolf and 2/3 chance human. So ideally I'd hate to see us both go D1, but I am curious how this plays out.
He did immediately call it out as a reaction test, which I can see as more obvious from the pov that I'm voting my lover which will kill me off. But what's to say that I wouldn't be okay with that since my win con isn't to survive but lynch the wolves
I also don't love being presented with statistics as a day 1 defence in a social deduction game
My vote got little to no attention from Specs in topic, he ignored it. I recall Specs doing that previously as a wolf, but when voted as a human would respond to it (IIRC he did when I was wolf and voted him last game). I need to double check
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 11, 2024, 07:44:59 AMI think TZP/Specs looms larger in my mind than Specs/Nakah now
I understand where you're coming from, but I'm still in the camp that TZPs move was human play. If I were TZPs wolf partner, him switches the vote off me to a KitB still results in one wolf dying.
Re: Toby's PM share, I agree that statistics aren't necessarily the best proof but you voted for me so early on in the game. Barely any information had been presented at that point.
I'll see if I can make it before the end of the day, but I'm overseas and jet lag is hitting me hard.
Quote from: Toby on March 11, 2024, 10:04:43 AMI don't love any of the analysing of TZP being possibly a wolf at this point, I think it's pretty obvious he was a human
@Toby can you point out to me where exactly you think my logic goes wrong? we already discussed in thread that you'd have be very confident that your lover is a wolf to take them down as a human - more likely that they're a wolf than
two other people combined - and compared to the wolf!TZP strategy I described, I think human!TZP making this play makes less sense given that in TZP's readslist Specs was 4 and BDS was 5. or do you think TZP was obviously human for reasons other than his dying play?
Quote from: Toby on March 11, 2024, 10:04:43 AM@mfs why did you choose to vote Specs over voting BDS yesterday?
as I explained here:
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:08:07 PMonce I found out you and Toby were lovers, I didn't want to lynch you then because I had a decently solid townread on Toby. given BDS/TZP vs. Toby/Specs, I would've lynched BDS/TZP if Toby was the only one of those four I townread. however, after seeing BDS and TZP both say that they'd be willing to go down with each other, I townread both of them more strongly than before. it could have been a ruse on their parts, but BDS didn't fight very hard to stay alive (he didn't communicate with me about voting Specs) (and we know now that TZP really was willing to go down with the ship). because of that, and because of Toby's hasty last minute vote (which, I think, THC rightly sussed), I felt the odds of hitting a wolf were better by lynching Toby/Specs. it was close, though, and I didn't feel too bad about the kitb because I would've been fine to take the outcome either way.
tl;dr I saw TZP and BDS both express a human-like willingness to go down with each other and I took a bet on them being truthful about it.
Quote from: raeko on March 11, 2024, 09:42:11 AMBut why would everyone by default go with toby tomorrow instead of one of us...?
If you and THC are the wolves, we still win by lynching THC today and you tomorrow. I'm not sure what you mean by this ending paragraph
sorry I have should been clearer, but what you said is basically what I meant. since Specs voted Nakah to break up the me/THC pair, I was suggesting as a compromise that we lynch THC/Nakah today. but if the game doesn't end (and I don't think it will), we'll ultimately end up me/raeko vs. Specs/Toby yet again, and both human!me and wolf!me would continue pushing for Specs/Toby, so agreeing to lynch THC/Nakah today wouldn't exonerate me at all. thus I don't think I see a benefit for me to make this compromise today instead of just pushing for Specs/Toby first
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on March 11, 2024, 10:52:50 AMI understand where you're coming from, but I'm still in the camp that TZPs move was human play. If I were TZPs wolf partner, him switches the vote off me to a KitB still results in one wolf dying.
right, but if you (or Toby) were his partner
you'd have a much better chance of winning solo than TZP would have. this is what I just explained
Aright, I'm going to be asleep until after phase end, so I'm putting in my vote now. I already explained my reasoning, and I won't be around to respond to anyone questioning my vote until after the phase ends.
Specs
I think it's a bit absurd to think that this is a big wolf play orchestrated by me and THC. if we were truly the wolves I wouldn't pull this play at all and instead just sit back, because (a) THC has been universally townread and (b) mostly everyone still alive is neutral on Specs and Toby, including Specs and Toby themselves. thus if I don't come up with this big plan and me/raeko get lynched today, I think it's very likely that Specs/Toby get lynched d3 instead of THC/Nakah.
Votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)
Five hours left!
I meant to do this earlier, but I just wanted to apologize in advance. I don't know which team you're on, but I knew from the moment the game started that I'd end up dragging you down with me, and I'm sorry. My playstyle is way too suspicious to others, I always get lynched.]
If I ever die before the end of the phase....vote this guy...it could have been my partner all along....What if MasterSuperFan and ThatHiddenCharacter are the wolf alliance...I could have been instigated from the beginning by being teamed up with THC...I see both MasterSuperFan and ThatHiddenCharacter voting upon SpecsFlyer17...
The others that have posted....I sense it...the blast of a shopping cart in nuts & bolts(I never was able to play it, mea culpa =<......is that what that is....the Ghosts from beyond saying WE WERE TOWN ONCE! AND YOU BETRAYED US and left us to gooOOOo![/b])
Why did it have to come out to the podium with the acknowledgments in the background......as I write this final address as a post for today's phase..., I wish to say that it was the 'Face Shrine Theme,' from Link's Awakening DX; that I listened to while writing this. Then to exclaim that it is a TWG where I have seen MasterSuperFan come forth with the mimicry my endeavors upon the last page, as an AH hAh HAAH. I believe you are a wolf MasterSuperFan, and THC has been equipped with me in this game for the enjoyment of what might unravel.
That being said....The next day seems to have done a 180 in meta logic and this is interesting.
SpecsFlyer17 has spoken nothing other than the truth that occurs to my mind, so for both of them to turn against him.
It leaves it in its own lavender shades of .....sand dunes.
So my vote simply goes upon MasterSuperFan.
I'm kinda starting to think MSF is wolfing too but I don't want to vote them unless I am damn sure as I mentioned earlier. I would not be confident enough for that. MSF/THC wolf pair might make sense? They sure were PMing a lot by the sounds of things. Which could just be an energy matching thing but idk
I guess I will vote for Nakah for now though THC would be my actual target. Just in case people aren't going to be around for EoD (which it seems like might be the case) and Nakah already has a vote on him. I think Nakah is probably human but they would both die either way so it doesn't really make a difference
if anyone wants to analyze PMs between me and THC, here is the full set of them front to back (fyi quoting a post with quotes doesn't include nested quotes, so some lines may be missing the quotes that they were responding to):
day 1 and aftermath
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:02:43 PMokay I wrote half this post before you switched your vote to Specs. the purpose was to coordinate a vote switchover but it seems like the opportunity is already there.
---
right now I trust you. I think we're going through the same mindset atm
I agree that maybe Specs/Toby might be the move given that they're so under the radar, and I feel less sus of TZP and BDS given that they're both okay with sac'ing themselves to kill their lover. BDS doesn't seem to be putting up much of a fight against getting lynched and he was the one I was sus of.
between the four pairs I currently think you/Nakah is mostly likely human/human. I can't help but think raeko might be a wolf and I'm almost wondering if I can try to bait her in some way in the last hour before phase end.
will wait a little bit longer for raeko to respond to my PMs. will keep you posted. some part of me is tempted to ask her which of BDS/TZP and Toby/Specs she wants me to vote for, and then vote opposite of that
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:04:45 PMCertainly an interesting plan, but I do think it has merit to it. And I do agree that those two pairs are likely the best lynch candidates for this phase.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:09:07 PMactually, if she switches her vote off Nakah onto one of BDS/TZP and Specs/Toby, then me voting for the opposite will result in a kitb. I might still prefer that over following what she does
she sent this to me earlier:
and I responded:
and she hasn't responded yet. I just sent her another PM:
I want to see what she says.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:18:34 PMwho do you think the most likely wolf pairings are?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:32:10 PMI could see it being either Toby with raeko or TZP or Specs with raeko or TZP. As of now, I think I'm more inclined for Toby/raeko. To list them in order:
Toby/raeko
Toby/TZP
Specs/raeko
Specs/TZP
Clearly, out of the four of them, Toby and raeko are my top individual contenders for wolves, as well.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:34:16 PMthanks. I just reached the same conclusion, with the added possibility of raeko/BDS (what Nakah suspects). the possibility of raeko/BDS bothers me because raeko said earlier today she would be willing to vote TZP out, but hasn't responded since then after the pairings have come out and I asked her to help push a charge against TZP/BDS. she hasn't responded to anything nat all so I don't know what she's doing. I'm sus of her.
at the moment I think I trust BDS okay-ish enough not to worry about that too much. probably gonna vote Toby/Specs
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:38:07 PMI'm worried that raeko/TZP could also be a pair and they're distancing. I'm lowkey tempted to off myself to kill raeko
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 09, 2024, 05:44:21 PMThat is certainly a possibility. I will say, though, that is Toby/Specs is lynched this phase, raeko is likely to get my vote next phase, so it might still be worth sticking with Toby/Specs for now.
Currently, you and Nakah are the only ones I feel comfortable about. You in particular, your recent plays scream town, I feel very confident in you at this point.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:44:36 PMI think I might actually off myself
if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:
TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs
voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.
if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:48:47 PMthe downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.
it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think BDS will be on board. I don't know if Nakah will be on board.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 05:50:56 PMok WOW never mind TZP is forcing a kitb.
I'm going to hold my vote and see who dies. if TZP survives this I don't think raeko/TZP is a sensible pair anymore
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 06:16:06 PMbtw I also told BDS about the plan to off myself last second. he didn't respond. at the time I thought he was probably human, but after seeing TZP suicide like that, I think that TZP (a) was probably human and (b) may have been onto something with BDS, even if I didn't see it.
if BDS was human, I'd guess the information probably died with him. if he wasn't, then it probably got passed onto his wolf partner, who could either be raeko, you, or Nakah. (highly unlikely he'd push onto Specs/Toby, and not me/raeko, if he was partnered with Toby or Specs, I think.) for reasons as discussed I don't think it's you, and I already told raeko I'd consider voting ourselves d2.
maybe keep an eye out on Nakah.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 09, 2024, 06:17:45 PMas BDS pointed out, TZP could also have been wolf and paired with one of Specs/Toby.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 12:01:02 AMYeah, I'm prepared to sacrifice myself if I start to suspect Nakah is a wolf. As of right now, I don't believe he is, though.
day 2
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:25:34 AMI'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately
by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up
curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.
I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)
I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.
some more thoughts:
- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.
- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)
- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.
- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.
- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...
if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.
in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.
in short, my wolf pairs tier list:
highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs
pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby
plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs
not very plausible:
everything else
in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.
I'm sus of Specs.
I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:32:30 AMlooks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 10:48:04 AMI don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.
other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.
I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:09:19 PMposted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 12:13:34 PMif I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 05:11:51 PMNot gonna lie, raeko's posts in response to both your vote and my accusations feel very much like a wolf. I don't think it was really a "oops, haven't done lovers in awhile", it felt like a wolf slip-up sincd she would know if her partner died.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 05:14:24 PMI agree the lylo slip smells really wolfy, but... I dunno, the rest of her reaction feels very genuine and human to me, especially this part:
if raeko is a wolf, basically her only plausible partner at this point is BDS:
- raeko/TZP: TZP wouldn't have suicided with BDS
- raeko/Toby: Toby wouldn't be pushing raeko now, when (if my push were genuine) doing so means it's highly likely she'll die
- raeko/Specs: Specs wouldn't have voted raeko and left for the night at a time when raeko had the most votes
- raeko/Nakah: it's possible, but I don't think it's likely. it looks like raeko is willing to advocate for a lynch on Nakah to save herself here (see her response to Toby's message), and I don't think a wolf in immediate danger of being lynched would want to push it back onto her partner. plus she wanted to lynch you from the start of day 1
...which basically just leaves BDS. yet you said you thought BDS was town.
how likely do you think BDS/raeko is?
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 05:15:30 PMbut, uh, yeah, if raeko's human, I think the lylo slip may have just dug town's grave
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 05:22:45 PM1. I disagree, that quote actually struck me as very wolfy as well. As town, I still say if when referring to myself as a possible wolf. And as I pointed out in the thread, she's already been told that dying does not go against the win condition.
2. I could see it. While I did feel BDS was town, I did still see some merit to the arguments that he could be UTR.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 05:33:56 PMI mean, that's you, but I think with raeko I don't see her using an emotional defense like that as a wolf. I think a wolf would think that saying something like that wouldn't get them anywhere and make them seem desperate, so they wouldn't bother
---
what do you think of Specs' response to my vote?
---
I'm still planning to reveal that this was a ploy and launch a push on Specs, but I was hoping to wait until Nakah responds. given how quickly the anti-raeko ball seems to be rolling, though, I'm not sure if I should say something sooner
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 08:34:05 PMI do believe raeko is a wolf, but you are right that Toby/Specs is statistically a better lynch. There is one thing I disagree with you on, though. I think Specs/raeko is still viable. From the games we've played together, I could absolutely see Specs place a vote on raeko to distance and then just dip without paying attention to whether it would actually get her lynched or not.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 08:56:05 PMI went back to look at it and... I mean, I guess it's possible; I think it's extremely unlikely. Less than 2 hours from phase end, Specs places a 3rd vote on Raeko, making it 1 Specs, 2 Nakah, 3 raeko, 2 BDS. he sticks around for a little bit, seemingly long enough to see BDS vote for Specs and also amass 4 votes before I unvote, making it 1 Nakah, 2 raeko, 3 BDS, 1 Specs.
then you switch your vote to Specs, making it a 3-way kitb, and I vote half an hour later. unclear whether he saw the 3-way kitb or not, but at a minimum, he saw that the vote was 2 raeko, 2 or 3 BDS. that's a really dangerous position to leave your wolf partner in one hour before phase end. so yes, it's possible, but it's so unnecessarily risky that I think it's really unlikely. even if it's his playstyle...? I don't know, I think there's basically no world where it's good for a wolf to do this
I also think that if Specs was wolf partners with raeko, he would be a little less fixated on the issue of my innocence and more focused on throwing sus elsewhere.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 09:04:06 PMI hope Nakah and Specs get another chance to post before morning. I also want to see if raeko follows through and builds a strong defense for herself. I have my reveal post written up and I'm going to post it in the morning to throw a push onto Specs.
about Specs' post that I sent you earlier:it's extremely avoidant on giving any stance about my raeko vote, and instead fixates on how this makes me look, which I think really is not the important question. I think human!Specs, who has previously sussed raeko, would be much more interested on commenting on whether or not he agrees with my sus on raeko, or why he thinks I'm right/wrong. instead all he says on that is "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." my pov - what about his? I feel like it's a cautious middle ground that doesn't want to encourage a raeko wagon too hard so as not to seem wolfy, but also doesn't want to stop me from leading the charge myself and tagging along.
raeko seems pretty desperate to defend herself, and if she does so by the time I wake up, I'm going to townread her. I can really only see wolf!raeko being partnered with wolf!BDS at this point, and I don't think a solo wolf!raeko with a dead partner would be nearly as desperate to fight for survival as a town!raeko who thinks she's being mislynched. could be wrong
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 09:23:58 PMactually I don't know if I should just reveal now. I'm worried that if I wait till morning not everyone will be in time to vote before phase end, given it's a Monday and most players seem to be in pacific time
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 09:29:07 PMhow long are you going to be around tonight? could I possibly ask you to post the reveal post on my behalf during the night? if so I can send it over
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 09:31:44 PMI'm at work, but I'm still checking things out intermittently. Just let me know when you want me to post it.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 10, 2024, 09:52:25 PMawesome, ty. here it is: https://pastebin.com/BiW32u9d
I'll leave it up to your discretion. see if you can catch people at a time that they're active? it's also possible that they just don't show up. I want to see Specs, Nakah, and raeko respond further, but it's not clear to me whether they'll pop back in tonight. earlier may be better than later, to avoid the possibility that someone doesn't have time to come back after it gets posted.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 10, 2024, 09:58:58 PMIf there's no activity before 4am (3 hours from now), I'll post it then.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on March 11, 2024, 08:07:42 AMit's gotta be TZP/Specs wolves. I'm almost sure of it now. I think Specs tried to cover up TZP's motives for pulling the suicide play and now wants to portray you/me as a wolf pair because he knows he has to get both of our pairs lynched to win. I think that's also why he's indifferent between voting raeko or Nakah today
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on March 11, 2024, 08:16:32 AMHonestly, when you explained it in the thread, it did make a lot of sense. I kinda agree with you. I'm just waiting to vote in case raeko or Nakah fall for the ploy because we both vote for Specs.
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, raeko)
mastersuperfan: 1 (Nakah)
2 hours remaining!
after seeing Nakah vote for me, I no longer know whether TZP or Nakah is the other wolf. in my eyes it's one of the following three pairs: TZP/Specs, Specs/Nakah, Toby/Nakah.
the possibility of raeko being a wolf is all but gone from my mind. if it were raeko/Nakah she'd just vote Specs to win here. if it were raeko/BDS, she'd join me in taking down Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah over the next two days instead of sussing me/THC.
from my pov:
if Specs gets lynched today, then the game ends if TZP was a wolf, or it continues if Nakah is a wolf. if this happens and the game keeps going, it will prove that me and THC aren't wolf partners, which I think should be enough to prove Nakah's guilt.
if Nakah gets lynched today, then tomorrow is me/raeko vs. Toby/Specs (I'm almost certain the game is going to continue). since THC is with me and Nakah against, and they both die, this basically postpones the (wolves are MSF/THC) vs. (there's a wolf in Toby/Specs) decision until tomorrow without a change in the net votes for or against.
if I get lynched today, then the game ends if wolves are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah, or continues if wolves are TZP/Specs. then likely the game ends, but if it doesn't then it ends up Toby/Specs vs. THC/Nakah, which is again a 2v2. since THC will probably vote Toby/Specs and Nakah will probably vote THC/Nakah, it will depend on Toby and Specs.
Final votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, raeko)
mastersuperfan: 1 (Nakah)
By a KitB, SpecsFlyer17 is lynched and Toby dies of heartbreak!
Postgame thread coming soon.
fuckin called it