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TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

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Role PM's

Spoiler

QuoteYou are the Master Wolf

[Player] is the Redirection Wolf

[Alt account] is the Aloof Wolf Shaman. The password to that account is [password]

[Player] is the Miller

QuoteYou are the Redirection Wolf

[Player] is the Master Wolf

[Alt account] is the Aloof Wolf Shaman. The password to that account is [password]

[Player] is the Miller

QuoteYou are the Chosen One

[Alt account] is the Aloof Seer. The password to the account is [password]

QuoteYou are the Sacrifical Lamb

QuoteYou are a Human.

You may be the Miller or the Herring, though.

[close]

---

All PM's have been sent, the game has started. It's now night 1. Night 1 ends december 1st 10:00AM PST/11:00AM MST/12:00PM CST/1:00PM EST/6:00PM GMT/7:00PM CET

post to receive emails

For once a game doesn't start while I'm asleep

These phase end times are great for me

Hey, I'm not super late this time. Cool.

Quote from: Toby on November 30, 2023, 11:13:07 AMThese phase end times are great for me

IKR

no more forgetting to vote for the right person

Meanwhile there's entirely a possibility the phase could end while I'm sleeping :P How the turntables have turned...

I have arrived?

Since the wolves know who the Miller is, would it be safe to take the first red check with a grain of salt? Granted, now that I pointed it out they're less likely to go for that move

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 12:40:47 PMI have arrived?

Since the wolves know who the Miller is, would it be safe to take the first red check with a grain of salt? Granted, now that I pointed it out they're less likely to go for that move

Misclick, meant to go for ! rather than ?

Wolves probably want to keep the Miller alive (which should be fairly easy since they know who the Miller is) until they get seered, so that's another possible one-sided player interaction to be aware of.

The Herring basically only exists to protect the human team, since they're seered green by the human seer anyway.

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 12:40:47 PMSince the wolves know who the Miller is, would it be safe to take the first red check with a grain of salt? Granted, now that I pointed it out they're less likely to go for that move

ninja'd

I don't think the wolves would reveal the miller as their first check (and if they do claim to seer the miller, it'll likely be as a last resort play). They ideally want the human seer to seer the miller to help sow doubt.

Well, the wolves could just lie about the checks and we'd be none the wiser due to playing flipless. Thus, when the wolves can "seer" anyone red maybe they just leave the miller alone.

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 12:58:02 PMWell, the wolves could just lie about the checks and we'd be none the wiser due to playing flipless. Thus, when the wolves can "seer" anyone red maybe they just leave the miller alone.

I'm wondering if we might get to a point we could deduct if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi is the human seer

I think the wolves will most likely give a false seering every night whereas the human will give a true one

Well, neither of the alt accounts have shown up yet. Is that evidence that no one who's shown up is in charge of the accounts, or would it be wise to wait?

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 01:33:57 PMWell, neither of the alt accounts have shown up yet. Is that evidence that no one who's shown up is in charge of the accounts, or would it be wise to wait?

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion quite yet. It's entirely possible that whoever's in charge of the accounts, whether human or wolf, haven't figured out how what they're gonna do with them yet.

Perhaps both teams are waiting for the other to make the first move? Or maybe they just don't see any reason to use the accounts yet.

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 01:33:57 PMWell, neither of the alt accounts have shown up yet. Is that evidence that no one who's shown up is in charge of the accounts, or would it be wise to wait?

Are you trying to deduct who the wolf seer is or the human seer?

Announcing your thought process of finding out who is behind the alt accounts could help the wolves find the seer

Quote from: Toby on November 30, 2023, 01:47:14 PMAre you trying to deduct who the wolf seer is or the human seer?

Announcing your thought process of finding out who is behind the alt accounts could help the wolves find the seer

If I understand this correctly, both wolves would have access to the alt, thus narrowing down the owners helps the humans more. Granted, I cannot account for all the reasons why the owners of the accounts may not have posted yet.

Note that anything we can figure out here, the wolves can likely figure out on their own

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 01:53:07 PMIf I understand this correctly, both wolves would have access to the alt, thus narrowing down the owners helps the humans more. ,Granted, I cannot account for all the reasons why the owners of the accounts may not have posted yet.

I mean it usually takes some time for activity to start rolling in

but yes, figuring out the owners would be good (obviously)

On the bright side, i think im finally understanding the roles a bit more. :P

I have some thoughts, but will sit on them until activity starts up.

Hello all!

Some possibilities for the wolves' target:
1) the master wolf, that way if the redirection wolf is seer'd, he paints green.
2) the miller, that way if a human is seer'd, he paints red, which builds suspicion.

Either way, any seer result claim from Luigi or Waluigi should be taken with a grain of salt, as previously mentioned.
And if one divine being claims a seer result, I'd expect the other to counterclaim with something else.

Also, since the redirection wolf knows the miller even red checks from the human seer need to be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, we should be wolfhunting rather than waiting for the setup to solve itself.

Quote from: Oricorio on November 30, 2023, 05:21:45 PMAlso, since the redirection wolf knows the miller even red checks from the human seer need to be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, we should be wolfhunting rather than waiting for the setup to solve itself.

Although that is also a risk, as the wolves could have the Master Wolf seered red if they try that...

True, which is why I think targeting the master wolf is probably more likely.

But regardless, we should focus on wolf hunting and take caution with seer result claims.

Hello everyone! First Davy game in something like seven years and I am here for it.

Hi everyone!

The Luigis may just be holding off until the seer result? I guess that makes sense since they're more likely try to generate trust via seering results as opposed to early game small talk. I am interested to see how they play it though

post to receive emails

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 30, 2023, 04:27:37 PMHello all!

Some possibilities for the wolves' target:
1) the master wolf, that way if the redirection wolf is seer'd, he paints green.
2) the miller, that way if a human is seer'd, he paints red, which builds suspicion.

Either way, any seer result claim from Luigi or Waluigi should be taken with a grain of salt, as previously mentioned.
And if one divine being claims a seer result, I'd expect the other to counterclaim with something else.

It is good to keep the redirection wolf in mind, but I'm not sure if we can say for certain how the wolves would handle that power. Kinda like Oricorio said, there's risk in pretty much every option the wolves choose.

Quote from: threalmathguy on November 30, 2023, 06:49:40 PMHi everyone!

The Luigis may just be holding off until the seer result? I guess that makes sense since they're more likely try to generate trust via seering results as opposed to early game small talk. I am interested to see how they play it though

That makes sense. I don't think they really have a good reason to talk early, and if they're deliberately trying to keep their identity a secret (which is a valid concern for the human seer too) then they'll definitely want to keep unnecessary talk to a minimum.

It's been so long I don't quite remember, but are PM's allowed at all? Or just during the day? Or anytime?..

Nvm i'm not paying attention... :-X

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on November 30, 2023, 08:38:33 PMIt's been so long I don't quite remember, but are PM's allowed at all? Or just during the day? Or anytime?..

There are actually some TWG/Mafia forums that prohibit speaking at night at all. Actually sort of jarring when you're used to night conversations. :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 30, 2023, 08:49:27 PMThere are actually some TWG/Mafia forums that prohibit speaking at night at all. Actually sort of jarring when you're used to night conversations. :P

Right! I thought the same, but when i read "N1 start." i assumed it meant we could chat haha. Although now i see how that could be misunderstood.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 30, 2023, 08:49:27 PMThere are actually some TWG/Mafia forums that prohibit speaking at night at all. Actually sort of jarring when you're used to night conversations. :P

Closed nights are standard across most mafia sites. However, for the most part we don't do things the "standard" way

Something we could consider is the sacrificial lamb claiming and then asking the chosen one to claim to them. The sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Because the sacraficial lamb can still use their power even when dead Im not seeing much of a down side to this. It just means they're guaranteed to be wolfed next but someone has to be wolfed, and in exchange we have an untouchable human seer for the rest of the game.

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 04:36:58 AMThe sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Mind explaining this? Not sure I follow...

The chosen one will tell the sacraficial lamb if they have ownership of either twg Luigi or twg waluigi

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 05:59:58 AMThe chosen one will tell the sacraficial lamb if they have ownership of either twg Luigi or twg waluigi

Fair, although wouldn't a wolf counterclaim be expected?

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 04:36:58 AMSomething we could consider is the sacrificial lamb claiming and then asking the chosen one to claim to them. The sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Because the sacraficial lamb can still use their power even when dead Im not seeing much of a down side to this. It just means they're guaranteed to be wolfed next but someone has to be wolfed, and in exchange we have an untouchable human seer for the rest of the game.

I get what you're going for, but it seems easy for the wolves to throw a wrench in the works. Sacrificial Lamb seems like a pretty easy role to counterclaim for the wolves (as Specs said). And, hell, a wolf could also counterclaim seer if they wanna keep things more behind the scenes.

Okay great then we are guaranteed a wolf within 2 lynches?

And lynching neither the chosen one or the sacraficial lamb is harmful as both their powers can be used while dead

We have 3 lynches to hit our first wolf.

If a wolf counterclaims we can guarantee a wolf in the first 2 lynches, then we have 2 more lynches to find the next wolf.

I suppose it's upto the wolves if they want to trade a wolf for the humans knowing which seer is the real one. Which is their call - but I think my plan only sets up an overall benefit for the humans

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 08:17:04 AMWe have 3 lynches to hit our first wolf.

If a wolf counterclaims we can guarantee a wolf in the first 2 lynches, then we have 2 more lynches to find the next wolf.

I suppose it's upto the wolves if they want to trade a wolf for the humans knowing which seer is the real one. Which is their call - but I think my plan only sets up an overall benefit for the humans

The biggest downside is that we'd be committing to losing the Chosen One and/or the Sacrifical Lamb (the latter of which especially could "clear" themselves at a critical moment later in the game). That's in addition to not being able to trust either seering.

And on top of all that, the plan sorta doesn't work nearly as well after N1 because of the chance that one or both of those could get wolfed tonight. With less than 2 hours in the phase it's sort of something we'd need to do ASAP, y'know?

But what stops a wolf counter claiming them later in the game not letting them clear themselves? And especially if it's lynch or lose a counter claim is more likely.

And well then hopefully the sacrificial lamb sees it as beneficial to claim and does soon

But it would likely require humans to express the want for it other than me

Ah so this brings up one thing i noticed. The Sacrificial Lamb has a lot of power this game it seems. Since their ability can be used after death, it can be used to confirm a role. Fake claims or not, if we ask the lamb to revive a specific person and they do or dont, it could help clear names.

If the wolves lynch the lamb, theyre not really setting themselves ahead, but rather behind/stagnant by confirming the role claim all the same. Essentially, the lamb dying would just silence their voice but not their role in the game.

I dont see an issue in the lamb claiming soonish tbh. But perhaps im just naive lol

Of course, a lynch on the Sacrificial Lamb would still be a wasted lynch for town as well, so keep that in mind.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 08:47:50 AMOf course, a lynch on the Sacrificial Lamb would still be a wasted lynch for town as well, so keep that in mind.

Yes true! Which is why a lot of trust is being given to that role to make the right calls, it seems. Hence "a lot of power this game."

Do you mean wolves wolf the sacrificial lamb rather than lynch?

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 08:59:40 AMDo you mean wolves wolf the sacrificial lamb rather than lynch?

Yes, my b

Phase ends are right in the middle of my work day this game lol. I don't have time to weigh in on much but I'll weigh in briefly on Toby's plan. The one hang up I see is that, while the plan loses value after N1, if the Sacrificial Lamb claims in the next sixty mins, won't the wolves just switch their target to the Lamb? There might not be enough time left for the actual Chosen One to see and claim, in which case we lose the lamb without the lamb being any wiser about who to revive down the road.

To Ice Climbers' point, the lamb dying in this way would confirm their role, but it's unlikely that the lamb would have been counterclaimed anyway, so that's a limited upside.

Are night one wolfings a thing? I thought it was just for other roles to do stuff?


Also the jokes of my name usually getting nicknamed to "N1" being hard to differentiate here.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 01, 2023, 09:10:02 AMAre night one wolfings a thing? I thought it was just for other roles to do stuff?


Also the jokes of my name usually getting nicknamed to "N1" being hard to differentiate here.

I've never seen wolves not being allowed to wolf night 1 so yeah there will be a wolfing tonight as I've not seen otherwise

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 09:07:43 AMPhase ends are right in the middle of my work day this game lol. I don't have time to weigh in on much but I'll weigh in briefly on Toby's plan. The one hang up I see is that, while the plan loses value after N1, if the Sacrificial Lamb claims in the next sixty mins, won't the wolves just switch their target to the Lamb? There might not be enough time left for the actual Chosen One to see and claim, in which case we lose the lamb without the lamb being any wiser about who to revive down the road.

To Ice Climbers' point, the lamb dying in this way would confirm their role, but it's unlikely that the lamb would have been counterclaimed anyway, so that's a limited upside.

I guess so

There's not much time left now for the sacraficial lamb to claim, have the seer claim and then reveal that to the topic, while also ensuring no counter claims

Something we could consider going into day 1 maybe and hope the chosen one and sacrificial lamb wasn't killed night 1 idk? Suppose if chosen one is killed then they can reveal so via a TWG account maybe ? And if the  sacrificial lamb was killed they count prove a counter claim wrong by reviving someone specific.? It does get a bit awkward though

Besides being alive for the human count, does it really make much difference if the SL and CO are alive or dead? The SL can work his power while dead, and the CO can relay all information via a Luigi.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 09:33:29 AMBesides being alive for the human count, does it really make much difference if the SL and CO are alive or dead? The SL can work his power while dead, and the CO can relay all information via a Luigi.

in terms of powers no, but for the CO at least you wouldn't know who you're talking to via a luigi

Yeah not at all of a difference really. There is the argument they have a unique role so can claim it and if uncounterclaimed they are confirmed human and that's it

But in terms of ability usage it doesn't matter if they're dead

toby i like your thinking with that plan but i kinda feel like it costs too many humans?

What do you mean? It only asks the sacraficial lamb to claim which would lead to us finding the chosen one. If there is a chosen one counter claim then we find a wolf in exchange for our seer.

If the sacraficial lamb is counter claimed we lose a confirmed human in exchange for a wolf

If both are counter claimed we literally win the game because we are able to lynch 2 wolves in 4 lynches

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Role PM's

Spoiler

[close]

---

Night 1 is over. ThatHiddenCharacter was wolfed.

Suffice to say he wasn't hidden well enough.

It's now Day 1. Day 1 ends december 3rd 10:00AM PST/11:00AM MST/12:00PM CST/1:00PM EST/6:00PM GMT/7:00PM CET

WWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH

There it is

GTH, the proximity of the Waluigi's post to the wolfing leads me to believe he's the Aloof Wolf, but thats just speculation.

Im in the camp that the SF claiming at least gives us some information to work with. One potential downside is if THC was the SF, a wolf could claim un-countered.

Wahaha, foolish one! You know nothing!

Waluigi received a blue seering in the night, wahaha! but Waluigi will not say who!

So optimally, what are we hoping for in Day 1 claims? Or are we going to give away our strats

Either waluigi is meme ing or that's THC's Death post waaa lol

Interesting choice of nightkill, but it removes someone from the POE.

Not sure what to make of Waluigi's alleged blue seering. If they're a wolf, they probably know who's dying tonight.

THC has what, one post? And it's not even game related. This is why you should do more even N0 to give us something to work with

Although perhaps the kill on them rather than someone more active might tell us something

Quote from: TWG Waluigi on December 01, 2023, 10:17:27 AMWahaha, foolish one! You know nothing!

Waluigi received a blue seering in the night, wahaha! but Waluigi will not say who!

hey wait a minute the aloof seer seers blue players as green

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 11:57:10 AMhey wait a minute the aloof seer seers blue players as green

The only way this isn't a slip/mistake is if the Redirection Wolf guessed correctly, and thus changed the COs seer to blue.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 12:12:49 PMThe only way this isn't a slip/mistake is if the Redirection Wolf guessed correctly, and thus changed the COs seer to blue.

I think. Actually lets get a TWG Question ruling from davy. If the COs seering is changed to blue from a correct redirection, does it remain blue or change to green?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 11:57:10 AMhey wait a minute the aloof seer seers blue players as green

Nice catch. I think you're town, or at least not the same alignment as Waluigi.

Too bad we can't vote Waluigi. Although maybe we can analyze if their word choices/etc. point to anyone?

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 12:16:31 PMI think. Actually lets get a TWG Question ruling from davy. If the COs seering is changed to blue from a correct redirection, does it remain blue or change to green?

lol even if it does remain blue the odds of that actually happening N1 are so slim. That's gotta be just a wolf slip.

RIP THC

So, who made the slip?  They clearly can't be anyone paying close attention to the setup

Anyway, we know that whoever dies tonight has a good chance of being a PR. Hopefully they're the Herring

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 12:50:01 PMSo, who made the slip?  They clearly can't be anyone paying close attention to the setup

I'm tempted to say TMP, but it doesn't look like they're even shown up after the flip. Their posts are typically much more low key than what Waluigi posted. Who else would it be in character for to make such a mistake?

.....sounds like you're not paying that much attention either, since Poet isn't playing

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 12:55:50 PM.....sounds like you're not paying that much attention either, since Poet isn't playing

Guess not. I probably misremembered her indecisive answer as an in. ADHD I guess

To be absolutely fair, I've scumslipped worse, though somehow managed to get away with it

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 12:53:07 PMI'm tempted to say TMP, but it doesn't look like they're even shown up after the flip. Their posts are typically much more low key than what Waluigi posted. Who else would it be in character for to make such a mistake?

TMP is a sub though? Whats going on lol

Ninja'd there.

Scumslip lol, thats a funny term

Judging by N0 posts, BDS, Toby, and SpecsFlyer seem to have thought really hard about the setup. Not saying they can't be wolves (although it's very unlikely BDS is one, though maybe he's aiming for towncred by pointing out his partner's slip) but they're almost certainly not the one who posted as Waluigi.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 01:09:57 PMNinja'd there.

Scumslip lol, thats a funny term

I suppose it'd be "wolfslip" in this site's parlance. I've made an effort to use "wolf" instead of "scum" in sites where it's called Werewolf, but old habits die hard I guess

Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 30, 2023, 06:53:56 PMpost to receive emails

Oh, this is why I thought she was playing the game.

Maybe N1P? They seem to fit the mold of "not paying too close attention and around to post as Waluigi"

Sorry, im just at work this afternoon (until 8:30 mst)

I love the catch on Waluigi. Waiting on the ruling!
Ill properly reply later on my lunch break

Quote from: TWG Waluigi on December 01, 2023, 10:06:33 AM

wah

WWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH

[close]

this is about what i expected for a first post from waluigi

good work, you got the memo

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 10:08:44 AMGTH, the proximity of the Waluigi's post to the wolfing leads me to believe he's the Aloof Wolf, but thats just speculation.

Normally I'd say it's coincidence (or the human could've also deliberately been waiting until the end of phase), but given Waluigi's next post I'm inclined to agree.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 12:22:06 PMNice catch. I think you're town, or at least not the same alignment as Waluigi.

My personal speculation is that I'm either the miller or was the wolves' N1 seering target. THC does feel like a particularly random choice otherwise.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 12:53:07 PMI'm tempted to say TMP, but it doesn't look like they're even shown up after the flip. Their posts are typically much more low key than what Waluigi posted. Who else would it be in character for to make such a mistake?

Given his early confusion, I think N1P2 is at the perfect intersection of "would act exactly like that as Waluigi" and "might accidentally miss something important about the setup like that."

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 12:55:50 PM.....sounds like you're not paying that much attention either, since Poet isn't playing

add oricorio to the list

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:10:39 PM(although it's very unlikely BDS is one, though maybe he's aiming for towncred by pointing out his partner's slip)

That'd be heeeeeeelllllllllaaaaaa risky considering it would basically confirm Luigi as the true seer and give the humans a pretty solid advantage. The only way I'd probably do that is if my partner was someone who had a near 100% chance of getting lynched early.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:13:20 PMOh, this is why I thought she was playing the game.

You're right, I didn't realize Poet wasn't playing because that exact post.

FOR FUTURE REFERENCE, PLEASE DO NOT POST IN A GAME IF YOU ARE NOT A PLAYER (even if you're a sub).

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:15:22 PMMaybe N1P? They seem to fit the mold of "not paying too close attention and around to post as Waluigi"

ninja'd

I tend to agree. Maaaaaybe also TZP, but I feel like TZP is more likely to have picked up on the fact that the human seer seers blue targets as green.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:24:42 PMThat'd be heeeeeeelllllllllaaaaaa risky considering it would basically confirm Luigi as the true seer and give the humans a pretty solid advantage. The only way I'd probably do that is if my partner was someone who had a near 100% chance of getting lynched early.

Well, the thing is the slip was going to be called out anyway, so why not call it out if you're a wolf so you get the jump on town? The slip was almost certainly not planned, but that doesn't mean the wolves can't do damage control

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:33:53 PMWell, the thing is the slip was going to be called out anyway, so why not call it out if you're a wolf so you get the jump on town? The slip was almost certainly not planned, but that doesn't mean the wolves can't do damage control

I'd like to think that both partners would talk things through before posting, especially when claiming to reveal seer results :P

Given what just happened, I think its fair to assume Waluigi is the Aloof Wolf. We'll see what davy says on the rules, but even if it's possible, it's extremely unlikely (as TZP pointed out).

That being said, Luigi (who we haven't heard from) is likely Aloof Seer.

Im trying to think if any drawbacks of Luigi sharing his seer result. I cant really think of any, besides potentially making a blue player a target for the next night.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 01:36:59 PMGiven what just happened, I think its fair to assume Waluigi is the Aloof Wolf. We'll see what davy says on the rules, but even if it's possible, it's extremely unlikely (as TZP pointed out).

That being said, Luigi (who we haven't heard from) is likely Aloof Seer.

Im trying to think if any drawbacks of Luigi sharing his seer result. I cant really think of any, besides potentially making a blue player a target for the next night.

But the town seer seers blue as green? Didn't someboday already make this mistake?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:35:14 PMI'd like to think that both partners would talk things through before posting, especially when claiming to reveal seer results :P

Waluigi outed their "result" 11 minutes after start of phase, barely any time to discuss anything

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:33:53 PMWell, the thing is the slip was going to be called out anyway, so why not call it out if you're a wolf so you get the jump on town? The slip was almost certainly not planned, but that doesn't mean the wolves can't do damage control

I already shared this with Math and Specs on the side—that was my initial thought, but BDS didn't reply until more than an hour and a half after the Waluigi seer claim. That's quite a long time to wait if he were a wolf just trying to bag easy human points. It's also very far from BDS' playstyle lol

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:42:57 PMBut the town seer seers blue as green? Didn't someboday already make this mistake?

Yeah, I meant it more as "we could get someone important targeted as the result of a positive trusted seer result".

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:44:17 PMWaluigi outed their "result" 11 minutes after start of phase, barely any time to discuss anything

That's assuming the wolves hadn't already discussed it the night before, which seems like the most logical thing to do. Pre-planning what they'd "reveal" as their results is the safest best. Revealing their actual results (especially if they seered a blue player) has a chance to backfire and help the humans.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:50:30 PMThat's assuming the wolves hadn't already discussed it the night before, which seems like the most logical thing to do. Pre-planning what they'd "reveal" as their results is the safest best. Revealing their actual results (especially if they seered a blue player) has a chance to backfire and help the humans.

They wouldn't have known the results until the beginning of the phase though. Outing the "blue" specificly was unlikely to have been planned.

The idea that two wolves would have discussed outing a blue result for hours and not realize the obvious problems is simply absurd to me. I'd like to think that we're all smarter than that.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:53:34 PMThe idea that two wolves would have discussed outing a blue result for hours and not realize the obvious problems is simply absurd to me. I'd like to think that we're all smarter than that.

Sure, but why would the Aloof Seer fake a seering result? That seems weird too.

Unless you're suggesting the Aloof Wolf purposely claimed an impossible seer result for another reason?

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 02:04:15 PMSure, but why would the Aloof Seer fake a seering result? That seems weird too.

Unless you're suggesting the Aloof Wolf purposely claimed an impossible seer result for another reason?

Nah, I'm more saying that the wolves weren't thinking when outing the result and any attempts to figure out their "plan" will mislead us. I feel it was primarily the fault of one wolf who made the slip, and the other wolf likely had nothing to do with that.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 12:16:31 PMI think. Actually lets get a TWG Question ruling from davy. If the COs seering is changed to blue from a correct redirection, does it remain blue or change to green?

The seering will be changed to the blue player, who will be seered green by the alsof seer

LOL

Well I guess we don't need anyone to claim to find out the human aloof seer?

But bit odd to claim a blue seering ? Surely claim a red and stir the pot day 1

So yeah, it's impossible for town to have a blue result. Pretty big slip there.

I'm making a bet here, that Waluigi account isn't posting again.

There's a chance Waluigi was just doing a reaction test to see who picked up on the fact that a blue seering is impossible, but I highly doubt that.

Interested to see what TWG Luigi has to say. They... certainly have a lot more credibility at this point :P

Yep, blue seering was impossible. Would like to hear from Luigi

Still, as previously mentioned, Waluigi claimed seer results 11 minutes after the phase change. If it is the Aloof Wolf account, whoever posted did not give much, if any, time to discuss sharing the result in the public thread. That seems reckless, and I'm kinda shocked that someone would do that.

And as Oricorio said, I doubt this was a preplanned scheme, and one of them would've likely noticed the obvious mistake.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 02:17:48 PMI'm making a bet here, that Waluigi account isn't posting again.

Lol bully Waluigi into not posting again

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 02:38:18 PMLol bully Waluigi into not posting again

I'd love Waluigi to post again, it only gives more information to town. Still, there's a reason why outed wolves don't do that.

Was waiting for confirmation from davy or TWG Luigi post, but here i am to claim I'm the Sacrificial Lamb.

Which is kind of why i paid particular attention to it yesterday in realizing i can do a lot to sway things one way or another :o

I am but a child.

Anyway, is there harm in reviving THC? Not necessarily right away but at some point? Only thing going against us is they could be the Miller... but then we get into the conversation of would the wolves take out the Miller first, to thicken the plot?

Whenever i play these games i usually wait until its too late to do anything of importance, and i didnt think everyone was so keen on N1 claims (or even talking, until i saw everyone else doing it), but here i am at least on D1...

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 01, 2023, 03:35:57 PMAnyway, is there harm in reviving THC? Not necessarily right away but at some point? Only thing going against us is they could be the Miller... but then we get into the conversation of would the wolves take out the Miller first, to thicken the plot?

I don't think the wolves would take out Miller first, as it takes away their safety net is someone is seer'd red.

Reviving THC essentially just buys the town time- which is by no means insignificant. However, since you can still use your revival while dead, my guy instinct is to wait until a more desirable situation. Maybe it goes without saying, but only night kills should be considered for revival- we don't want to revive a wolf.

All right, I should be able to discuss things more substantively going forward.

I disagree with Oricorio that Waluigi is unlikely to post again. I think the wolves will probably try to keep every tool in their disposal alive for as long as possible even if most people aren't believing them. I'd expect there to be a pitch of that false seering as a reaction test, or even as an honest error.

Want to hear more from Math, Xiao, and N1P2 (I don't think calling you "Ice Climbers" will stick haha) on the events of the day so far. As the players who have been the quietest, they are the ones who are most likely to be indicted by a "wolf reading sloppily" explanation* of an impossible seering—and I do not want to get shivved by not paying attention to quiet players for two games in a row.

(*if that is indeed the explanation we're opting for. Oricorio seems to think it's plausible that it's a wolf being conservative and a wolf being impulsive, which is definitely reasonable, but I think it's less likely than the whole team just not carefully reading)

Also, not Sacrificial Lamb.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 03:49:29 PMMaybe it goes without saying, but only night kills should be considered for revival- we don't want to revive a wolf.

Yeah precisely. Lost but not forgotten THC...

Literally my only thoughts so far are believing BDS to be town. I appreciate the quick nature of responding about the "slip" as soon as possible and later going into detail on others' observations. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Ill have more time to deep dive after work, if need be. I'm very much an observer (as a person), but if you need me to talk more...

Not Sacrificial Lamb

Not cc'ing Sacrificial Lamb.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 03:53:45 PM*if that is indeed the explanation we're opting for.

What other explanations are there? This was a calculated risk by the wolves to essentially surrender Waluigi in exchange for BDS getting town creds? It's actually the Aloof Seer doing some insane reaction test?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 03:53:45 PMWant to hear more from Math, Xiao, and N1P2 (I don't think calling you "Ice Climbers" will stick haha) on the events of the day so far. As the players who have been the quietest, they are the ones who are most likely to be indicted by a "wolf reading sloppily" explanation* of an impossible seering—and I do not want to get shivved by not paying attention to quiet players for two games in a row.

threalmathguy hasn't shown up lately (and has barely posted at all) while XiaoMigros showed up 20 minutes before phase change but seemingly dipped. But again, I doubt this was the decision of both wolves.

Its a little early for a full blown suspicion list (at least I'd like to get another days worth of information), but I do want to hear more from Math. Given that the Waluigi blunder could have easily been a single wolf's doing, inactivity has an bad look imo.

Not Sacrificial Lamb. N1P2 sorta soft-claimed to me via PM after everything went down with Waluigi, so I think the only reason why N1P2 wouldn't be the Sacrificial Lamb would be:
1. If we get a counterclaim.
2. If THC was the Sacrificial Lamb and was doing some weird strat where he tried claiming to a random person and it turned out poorly for him :P

Regardless, unless the wolves deliberately wolfed THC in hopes he'd be revived and "cleared" for the rest of the game, I'm like 90% sure THC isn't a wolf.

If Waluigi is somehow the human seer, I do hope he'll post again and hopefully clear up... whatever happened there :P

That being said, I'm pretty sure Luigi is either:
1. A less active player.
2. Someone who's timezones don't align with daytime for the current moment.
3. Someone who's deliberately sitting back for the time being before revealing seering results.

Perhaps it would be wise during this day phase for the CO to claim to me?

Luigi will not add onomatopoeia to his messages.
Luigi seered Oricorio green.

He speaks

Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller. I guess this confirms me as not the Seer (or maybe this is a gambit spooky~ )

On a similar note, what role does the Herring play? Any seer result on them will paint green, so what exactly makes them any different than just a green human?

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 05:58:11 PMOn a similar note, what role does the Herring play? Any seer result on them will paint green, so what exactly makes them any different than just a green human?

As I said early on, they basically only exist to protect the human specials.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 05:58:11 PMOn a similar note, what role does the Herring play? Any seer result on them will paint green, so what exactly makes them any different than just a green human?

Wolves can seer them blue. Thus, it's possible that both seers seered me.

Had a lot to catch up on. My thoughts:

I do believe Waluigi wolf slipped. I'm not reading too hard into BDS's call out following.

I like Toby's plan of chosen one claiming to lamb, if no one counterclaims then I believe N1P2's claim will be fairly credible (I am not lamb)

I agree with reviving THC, it'll help to have a confirmed human for voting as early as possible

I'm not the sacrificial lamb (obviously lol)

Once everyone has confirmed they aren't the SL then the Chosen One should came to n1p2 and reveal which twg account is the aloof seer

I too am not the sacrificial lamb

as for reviving thc, i dont really see the rush? there might be other humans later on that wed want to bring back for other purposes

If Waluigi wolf slipped it's entirely likely that the wolf themselves caught the slip immediately. The roles did get posted with the phase update so could have been spotted on the same page

I think everyone has posted since n1p2 claimed sacrificial lamb so unless THC was the lamb which I doubt then we have our lamb.

I suggest everyone pm n1p2 if their role just to help them find the Chosen One and they can see if anyone is going to counter claim

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 04:23:09 AMI suggest everyone pm n1p2 if their role just to help them find the Chosen One and they can see if anyone is going to counter claim

Since no one counterclaimed SL, I think I agree with this idea.

The obvious hesitation here is if N1P2 is wolf and THC was the SL. But I don't N1P2 would take the risk of claiming SL, since he wouldn't know that THC was the SL. THC could have been wolf-seer'd blue, but that still leaves the Herring and CO as options. Plus, it seems odd to wolf-seer the wolfing candidate.

I don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that THC claimed special to one of the wolves and was wolfed. That would likely mean he was the Sacrificial Lamb.

As I mentioned earlier, N1P2 claimed special to me via PM without mentioning his role and I sorta suggested that I wasn't the seer—it's also possible that I was seered blue by the wolves and (in the circumstance I described above) N1P2 was trying to figure out if I was a special and if so, which one. Given the early suspicion that was building on him it makes sense he'd go for such a gambit even if he wasn't 100% certain THC was a special.

That being said, I don't think it's an especially likely outcome and if that's the case we'll very likely figure it out sooner rather than later.

THC does make sense as a reviving target, but then again I can't help but feel like THC would be the kind of wolf to wolf himself on the off chance he'd be revived and thus cleared. That being said as well, I'm like 90% sure what actually happened was that the wolves seered me and wolfed THC as a sort of random pick.

I don't get why you keep thinking the wolves seered you?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 08:10:41 AMI don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that THC claimed special to one of the wolves and was wolfed. That would likely mean he was the Sacrificial Lamb.

Then what would you think about reviving THC to find out?

As you mentioned, there is a possibility that he wolfed himself in hopes that we revived him... which is super risky but I could maybe see it happening.

If we revive him and he doesn't claim SL, we can likely assume N1P2 is the real SL.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 08:31:52 AMIf we revive him and he doesn't claim SL, we can likely assume N1P2 is the real SL.

Since SL can't target themselves, if THC is revived, he is not the SL.

Reviving THC would be a good chance to show that the real one wasn't wolfed

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 09:21:46 AMReviving THC would be a good chance to show that the real one wasn't wolfed

So here begins a timer for claiming myself to be authentic, at least in some way.

As an aside, ive also easily painted a target on my back by claiming, and if the CO doesnt claim to me by the night, then my voice is as good as gone and i wont really be able to protect some townsfolk.

I have had two total pm's so far, although i didnt expect others to join in on the pm's... the CO is an important clear. We can work to validate your role with a TWG account.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 09:21:46 AMSince SL can't target themselves, if THC is revived, he is not the SL.

Reviving THC would be a good chance to show that the real one wasn't wolfed

Good point. Riving THC would prove that N1P2 is the SL. I guess the risk is if THC is a wolf, and if this is what the wolves planned: us wasting our revival on a wolf. I don't think they would take that risk, but it is possible.

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 08:30:45 AMI don't get why you keep thinking the wolves seered you?

If I'm not the miller, it's incredibly likely that I was seered.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 08:31:52 AMThen what would you think about reviving THC to find out?

As you mentioned, there is a possibility that he wolfed himself in hopes that we revived him... which is super risky but I could maybe see it happening.

If we revive him and he doesn't claim SL, we can likely assume N1P2 is the real SL.

I feel conflicted. Personally, I'd say just wait for N1P2 to be wolfed which would clear up the whole thing (if N1P2 is the Sacrificial Lamb then he can't be revived of course). But then it brings up the question of who, if anyone, we should revive. If THC is the Sacrificial Lamb then he should revive whoever is wolfed N2 (if it's not N1P2), or N3 if N1P2 is wolfed. If N1P2 is indeed the Sacrificial Lamb then he should probably revive whoever is wolfed N3 (if anyone sees any potential problem with that, it'd be great to know ahead of time).

Phase ends in approximately 24 hours?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 09:57:11 AMIf I'm not the miller, it's incredibly likely that I was seered.

Based on what?

Are you just baselessly throwing out 'I must have been seered' to separate yourself from the wolves?

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 10:13:12 AMBased on what?

Are you just baselessly throwing out 'I must have been seered' to separate yourself from the wolves?

because otherwise i very likely would have been wolfed

Why

guess

Your pushback to this feels like distraction. Toby.


Will try to make a suspicion list before the end of the day. What I can say right now is that I generally feel like Oricorio and Specs are more toward the human end of the suspicion spectrum, imo.

I just think it's odd to be publicly assuming the wolves seered you based on nothing

Unless you think you slipped somewhere but then I don't see why you keep drawing attention to the fact you must have been seered since not wolfed

I just asked a question and the only discussion at moment is on who should be revived which can be discussed night 2.

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 10:25:46 AMI just think it's odd to be publicly assuming the wolves seered you based on nothing

Unless you think you slipped somewhere but then I don't see why you keep drawing attention to the fact you must have been seered since not wolfed

I just asked a question and the only discussion at moment is on who should be revived which can be discussed night 2.

"Based on nothing"?? Based on the fact I wasn't wolfed?

THC is a very strange choice for a N1 wolfing, all things considered. I think most wolf teams would've opted to leave him alive solely for the reason that it might be easy to put him under the suspicion crosshairs. The best reasons I could see for THC being wolfed would be:
1. THC wolfed himself for the big brain strats
2. The wolves decided to seer me (or alternatively, I'm the miller and they wanted to keep me alive for the human seer to potentially seer) and wolf THC for the randomness factor.

Wait yeah Im confused too, BDS. Why are you assuming the wolves either seer'd or wanted to wolf you last night?

Why would you be wolfed first over anyone else? Thats not been a precedent set in any of the previous games

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 10:46:32 AMWhy would you be wolfed first over anyone else? Thats not been a precedent set in any of the previous games

...what? That's been a precedent set long before the current TWG revival (and in the first game post-revivial, I was the first person wolfed).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 10:59:26 AM...what? That's been a precedent set long before the current TWG revival (and in the first game post-revivial, I was the first person wolfed).

Is this something that had happened in the past few games? A trend?

This is a weird discussion (potentially a distraction), but I'm curious as well.

Nothing Special: Wolfed N1
Numbers Game: Hosted
Assassins Gambit: Survived late into the game.
Lantern Keeper: Wolfed N2
TTT: Survived late into the game.

So kinda I guess?

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 11:07:57 AMThis is a weird discussion (potentially a distraction), but I'm curious as well.

Nothing Special: Wolfed N1
Numbers Game: Hosted
Assassins Gambit: Survived late into the game.
Lantern Keeper: Wolfed N2
TTT: Survived late into the game.

So kinda I guess?

We have money: Wolfed N6
CXII: survives to end game as human
Hitler CXI: is a wolf
CX: is a wolf
CIX Shattered: idk but isnt wolfed night 1 and claims special when nearly lynched on day apparently

Am I missing something I've only seen you wolfed night 1 once in the last 10 games?

This is reading more as a misunderstanding than a wolf tell at this point

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 10:59:26 AM...what? That's been a precedent set long before the current TWG revival (and in the first game post-revivial, I was the first person wolfed).

I haven't been on the site that long so I don't know the trend but it seems like you're playing at a sort of gambler's fallacy

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 11:22:03 AMI haven't been on the site that long so I don't know the trend but it seems like you're playing at a sort of gambler's fallacy

Quote from: Nakah on July 14, 2008, 03:41:00 PMManti Rule - Once upon a time, there was a TWG player who went by the name Manti. He was soooooo good at TWG, everybody died. Well, something like that. But he was really quite good, and ended up being wolfed on night 1 whenever he was human. And if he wasn't wolfed night 1, players reasoned that he must be a wolf that game and killed him. The Manti Rule refers to cases where players seem suspicious by the fact that they weren't wolfed early in the game.

It's generally a trend that veteran players or players who are seen to be more "dangerous" to the wolf team tend to be wolfed earlier on—unless the wolves shoot for a "random" wolfing to avoid giving the human team any info.

I'm aware of the Manti Rule, just didnt know you felt like you were getting subjected to it as of late~

Oh so you're really good at this game, huh?

Haha jk, I get where you're coming from.

I think it's a little too much to jump to a conclusion that you were wolf seer'd or are the miller based on that alone, but it's possible.

As a member of the wolf team in Nothing Special 2, I can say that BDS' wolfing N1 was selected by random.org

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 11:37:40 AMAs a member of the wolf team in Nothing Special 2, I can say that BDS' wolfing N1 was selected by random.org

:morton2:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 02, 2023, 11:34:24 AMI'm aware of the Manti Rule, just didnt know you felt like you were getting subjected to it as of late~

Given the sudden injection of new players since the revival that's probably changed, but pre-revival it was generally accepted (IIRC) that I was more likely than average to be wolfed N1 than most players (and same with Davy as well when he was playing).

There's also the fact that I've played in or hosted in every NSMTWG since I started playing which probably means I'm more likely to have a higher number of N1 wolfings by numbers alone.

But anyway I maintain that this feels like a very strange thing for Toby to push back against regardless.

I'm just more curious why you would exempt other old codgers such as myself, Toby, and Oricorio (and N1P2? Idk) from that calculation.

Yeah I get what you're saying.

Toby did quick to criticize you claiming you got wolf-seer'd or claiming you are the miller. I don't really see wolf!Toby being that aggressive to criticize if it were true; that's too obvious.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 11:49:37 AMI'm just more curious why you would exempt other old codgers such as myself, Toby, and Oricorio (and N1P2? Idk) from that calculation.

I'd say you and Toby would also apply but to a lesser extent (as I said if Davy were also playing I'd apply to to him as well). I feel like I've probably mentioned that in a prior revival game.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 11:51:23 AMToby did quick to criticize you claiming you got wolf-seer'd or claiming you are the miller. I don't really see wolf!Toby being that aggressive to criticize if it were true; that's too obvious.

Yeah, I'm not sure what I'd get out of it if I were a wolf, so it'd be a strange thing for me to insist upon as a wolf.

Voting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 11:54:31 AMI'd say you and Toby would also apply but to a lesser extent (as I said if Davy were also playing I'd apply to to him as well). I feel like I've probably mentioned that in a prior revival game.

I am not sure if this is what you're intending, but this really does just sound like "I am better at this game than the rest of the lobby", which I find pretty unseemly

I just don't see the manti rule having applied to BDS or be likely to apply to BDS over other veterans in this game such as TZP or myself

And a lot of the newer players also showed to have good grip on the game that I wouldnt say the gap is too far apart between anyone

I have an interesting note.

Perhaps I'm overthinking things and this isnt the right direction, you all tell me.

I PM BDS to soft claim, especially after slight conversation begins to arise about N1 actions like claiming SL, etc...
We decide to wait until something happens (thus TWG Waluigi came forward and davy responded)

I claim SL publicly.

I get a PM from Specs suggesting that i ask for the CO to privately claim to me, to which i can work with them to prove their access to the alt account. Then if i talk publicly after that, is up to me.
I think its a fair idea, and was beginning to think the same way anyway.

I post suggesting just this, but without full detail of the plan using the CO to prove the TWG account.

Then Toby jumps on board with believing me, once almost everyone said they werent SL, only to say the same thing (which hadnt been mentioned publicly yet?), in regards to finding the alt account.
Specs agrees, now we are boarding the train that is this idea.


The first two PM's i get to claim roles are Toby, claiming human, and Specs, claiming green. Specs, specifically saying in PM "i'll bite on Toby's plan." While i thought, wasnt this along the lines of your plan to me before i posted?... albeit, i dont think i needed the rest of the town to claim to me, i just need CO, but thats different.

My question is unless they had been PM'ing, how did they just nearly have the same plan and each post about it with the confidence that they would so easily believe me?

Theres a lot of layers to TWG, i get it, but big brain plays are out of my realm haha. Targeting a returning player like THC seems legit. Targeting a seer on BDS as a returning player sounds very plausible. ( i don't want to get in a conversation of who has "more" game experience, I'm just observing)

What can we make from this? Unless coincidental and I'm gearing caught up in it? (Also, yes its a great plan that anyone could have thought of, but the fact that no one else did before them two and the coincidence that they messaged first is interesting. Thats what im looking at)

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:10:11 PMI am not sure if this is what you're intending, but this really does just sound like "I am better at this game than the rest of the lobby", which I find pretty unseemly

What I'm saying is that Davy and I being TWC inherently puts more of a target on our backs—that was also true when Bird, Mashi, and Verm were TWC and active players as well.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PM1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

This is interesting. Are you able to say any more about this?

Quote3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

To be fair I think that's true of a lot of long-term NSMers as well. Even without checking Waluigi's posts from past games I feel like TWG Waluigi players have definitely done something like that before.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PMVoting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

This feels like a very deliberate framing.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PM1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

I feel like there's a lack of context.
My thread response about the two human specials still having powers while dead (post #51) was not really in response to Toby's plan, but more so about the game mechanics in general.
My PM to TZP was a direct reply to TZP asking about what I thought about Toby's plan, in which I stated that the wolves could cause some chaos with counterclaims if people were claiming SL and CO.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PM2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

The WAAAA came at 7:06:33, and 29 seconds later, I posted at 7:07:02. I happened to be tuned in to see who was wolfed. 29 seconds to log out, log in, navigate to the thread and post? On a mobile device (I was at work)? Maybe if I intentionally speed-ran it, but I think that's a stretch to assume that's what happened, especially if it's predicated on a reverse psychology play. I don't even know if 29 seconds is enough time.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PM3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

Yeah, it's definitely something I would do. But you know that, and I can definitely see that as a tool for you to frame me. Plus I'm sure other people would say something similar as Waluigi.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 02, 2023, 12:35:09 PMI get a PM from Specs suggesting that i ask for the CO to privately claim to me, to which i can work with them to prove their access to the alt account. Then if i talk publicly after that, is up to me.
I think its a fair idea, and was beginning to think the same way anyway.

QuoteSpecs, specifically saying in PM "i'll bite on Toby's plan." While i thought, wasnt this along the lines of your plan to me before i posted?... albeit, i dont think i needed the rest of the town to claim to me, i just need CO, but thats different.

This especially feels a bit weird. It could just be awkward wording on Specs' part, but I feel like human Specs would be more likely to say something like "given that Toby and my plans are in agreement." Possible unintentional buddying on Specs' part, or, perhaps, an attempt for wolf Specs to make it seem like he was buddying with Toby.

My plan (which was privately discussed with N1P2) was that he solicits the CO only to claim to him privately. Nothing about the entire community claiming.

Toby's plan was everyone privately claim to N1P2. That's why I said "I'll bite on Toby's plan" in my PM to him.

They're similar, but this feels like an over-analysis.

Suspicion List Mk. 1

S U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- XiaoMigros: Hasn't been posting much at all, even for Xiao standards. Paranoid speculation time: Xiao saw my comment last game about me developing a "Human Xiao Radar" and has been avoiding posting on the off-chance the opposite is also true. A player I could conceivably see being on a wolf team that made the Waluigi slip.
- TheZeldaPianist275: I think TZP is also in the zone of players who, if on the wolf team, could have conceivably led to the Waluigi slip—if not TZP himself, it's possible that TZP didn't pick on the fact that the human seer seers blue players as green and subsequently failed to inform his partner of this fact as well.
- threalmathguy: Hasn't posted enough to get a good lean on yet (but solely based on the content of those posts it's still fairly neutral). Based on the timing of his posts (one post early in the game, then no more until fairly recently) it's possible that either he made the Waluigi slip (made posts as Waluigi then deliberately dipped out to avoid suspicion), or wasn't around to prevent his partner from making the Waluigi slip.
- SpecsFlyer17: I originally had Specs in the category below (imo, his posts have been fairly consistent with his recent human behavior, especially last game), but given the recent posts by TZP and N1P2 I feel like he should be under more scrutiny. In his defense, the issues those two brought up could be mostly down to awkward wording, which feels like something Specs has caught suspicion for in past games as well. Also in his defense, Specs pointed out very early that he thought it was possible TWG Waluigi was the wolf due to proximity of Waluigi's first post to the wolfing, which I really don't feel would be something that would be in wolf Specs' interest to say out loud.

E V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

D E A D Z O N E —
- ThatHiddenCharacter: He is, indeed, dead.

Cool Kids Club —
- Nana1Popo2: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.
- BlackDragonSlayer: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.

inb4 someone says "you're suspicious of too many players" (I hope to avoid a repeat of last game)

As I mentioned in the post itself, my initial take on the suspicion list (which I started writing after this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439508#msg439508)) had Specs in the green category just above Oricorio. Given recent developments I feel that's no longer an appropriate placement. However, during that same stretch of time I feel like there hasn't been enough/anything from Xiao, TZP, and Math to change their positions.

Overall, at the current moment I'd say I'd be ok with a lynch of any of Toby, Xiao, TZP, and Math. Given phases end at 10am I will likely place a "final" vote (if I change it at all) before I go to bed tonight.

Yeah, I still don't like "you're suspicious of too many players" as an accusation. If anything, it's more suspicious to be suspicious of too few, as that can indicate a wolf locked in a world.

Anyway, I'm back. I believe N1P for now, to think otherwise would mean a super convoluted gambit is in play, then again I'm just getting used to OC again. That does limit the possibilities of who Waluigi is, though.

Is math more active as town? They are doing almost nothing here, and same with my precious games with him where he was a wolf. Granted, those were the only games

I can see why Toby was confused over BDS's insistence that they were seered, I found that odd too and I don't think this in and of itself is indicative of Toby's alignment. Still, THC being selected is odd, but wolves may have either a. considered THC a wild card that they didn't want to deal with or b. make the oddest choice possible to draw attention away from a more active player, either to frame them as a wolf or because they themselves are a wolf.

On one hand, I like that TZP is trying to push the game forward by being the first to post a substantive case. On the other hand, would Specs be the kind of player to make that slip? He has been posting almost exclusively mechanical discussion, granted if the game I hosted is any indication he does that as town too

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 12:59:20 PME V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

I could be pushing for information really hard like in that game, but the main reason why I'm not is I 1k posted in my last game and would like a calmer game as a palette cleanser. Although, given that most players seem to not have gotten far in terms of pushing suspicions, maybe I should be acting like that

It is possible that THC is Luigi, as dead players can still post in the anonymous account and he still would have presumably gotten the seer results. I feel Luigi should tell the game if THC is truly their identity, but otherwise they should stay hidden to the thread at large.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 02, 2023, 01:41:05 PMIt is possible that THC is Luigi, as dead players can still post in the anonymous account and he still would have presumably gotten the seer results. I feel Luigi should tell the game if THC is truly their identity, but otherwise they should stay hidden to the thread at large.

But of course, if THC really is the Seer that seems like such bad luck that the kill had to be prompted by claiming to the wrong player. Still, if that's what happened, the Luigi account can state as such, which wolves might not have been counting on.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 02, 2023, 12:35:09 PMI have an interesting note.

Perhaps I'm overthinking things and this isnt the right direction, you all tell me.

I PM BDS to soft claim, especially after slight conversation begins to arise about N1 actions like claiming SL, etc...
We decide to wait until something happens (thus TWG Waluigi came forward and davy responded)

I claim SL publicly.

I get a PM from Specs suggesting that i ask for the CO to privately claim to me, to which i can work with them to prove their access to the alt account. Then if i talk publicly after that, is up to me.
I think its a fair idea, and was beginning to think the same way anyway.

I post suggesting just this, but without full detail of the plan using the CO to prove the TWG account.

Then Toby jumps on board with believing me, once almost everyone said they werent SL, only to say the same thing (which hadnt been mentioned publicly yet?), in regards to finding the alt account.
Specs agrees, now we are boarding the train that is this idea.


The first two PM's i get to claim roles are Toby, claiming human, and Specs, claiming green. Specs, specifically saying in PM "i'll bite on Toby's plan." While i thought, wasnt this along the lines of your plan to me before i posted?... albeit, i dont think i needed the rest of the town to claim to me, i just need CO, but thats different.

My question is unless they had been PM'ing, how did they just nearly have the same plan and each post about it with the confidence that they would so easily believe me?

Theres a lot of layers to TWG, i get it, but big brain plays are out of my realm haha. Targeting a returning player like THC seems legit. Targeting a seer on BDS as a returning player sounds very plausible. ( i don't want to get in a conversation of who has "more" game experience, I'm just observing)

What can we make from this? Unless coincidental and I'm gearing caught up in it? (Also, yes its a great plan that anyone could have thought of, but the fact that no one else did before them two and the coincidence that they messaged first is interesting. Thats what im looking at)

It was me who suggested the CO claim though so that they can find the TWG seer account that is the human seer?

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 04:36:58 AMSomething we could consider is the sacrificial lamb claiming and then asking the chosen one to claim to them. The sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Because the sacraficial lamb can still use their power even when dead Im not seeing much of a down side to this. It just means they're guaranteed to be wolfed next but someone has to be wolfed, and in exchange we have an untouchable human seer for the rest of the game.

So I guess that's what Specs means by my plan since I suggested it? And then when everyone had confirmed they weren't the Sacrificial lamb (not nearly everyone, it was everyone), I suggested we all PM you our roles to help you trust the Chosen One quicker and to rule out counter claims. The only way the plan fails is if the sacrificial lamb was THC, but this can be verified so it would ensure you die at the next lynch. which isn't worth the gambit for wolves i dont think

Also I'd advise not revealing who claimed what, even if human

The alt Seer account can still claim to me if its assumed im on the town spectrum.

In all honesty, i would see it as a safe bet? Also we need a backup plan on reviving candidates. Based on who dies N2, im thinking THC—it would be interesting to see the N1 death come back to actually talk

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 12:59:20 PMS U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

I mean in my defence there was still 6 hours left in the phase when I posted my plan, which was 25% of the phase remaining. I didn't pay too much attention to the setup as I originally didn't see a way for alliance at signups but when I looked at the game the next day I posted my plan at irl 12pm which still had loads of time until the phase ended.

If it was as easy a plan to spot and say sooner then anyone else could have posted it sooner, and I do think 6 hours was still plenty of time but it was met with immediate resistance from yourself and specs when I posted it, causing it to not really go ahead until day.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 02, 2023, 01:41:05 PMIt is possible that THC is Luigi, as dead players can still post in the anonymous account and he still would have presumably gotten the seer results. I feel Luigi should tell the game if THC is truly their identity, but otherwise they should stay hidden to the thread at large.

If THC is luigi he should only reveal that to n1p2 not the topic. The wolves can redirect the chosen one even if dead so if that's revealed then none of the seering results will be reliable

Going by previous games I'd be happy to lynch any quieter players to get them out the way

right now I'm looking at Xaio or math guy. Xiao is usually more talkative so this is odd from him. Math guy I'm sure was only more talkative when he was a wolf, but I'm sure I called him out on that so could be a choice to resist himself

Toby, the plan was originally yours, although I went ahead and PM'd N1P2 suggesting he ask for CO claims, since Waluigi has more or less been confirmed as the fraud alt. Luigi could then prove the COs identity. With Waluigi out the equation, it became much easier to prove the COs identity.

When you later suggested everyone claim to N1P2, thats when I said "I'll bite on Tobys plan" to N1P2.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 02:12:27 PMToby, the plan was originally yours, although I went ahead and PM'd N1P2 suggesting he ask for CO claims, since Waluigi has more or less been confirmed as the fraud alt. Luigi could then prove the COs identity. With Waluigi out the equation, it became much easier to prove the COs identity.

When you later suggested everyone claim to N1P2, thats when I said "I'll bite on Tobys plan" to N1P2.

Did I not already say they should in topic?

Quote from: Oricorio on December 02, 2023, 01:44:34 PMBut of course, if THC really is the Seer that seems like such bad luck that the kill had to be prompted by claiming to the wrong player. Still, if that's what happened, the Luigi account can state as such, which wolves might not have been counting on.

Agree on both accounts.

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 01:59:42 PMI mean in my defence there was still 6 hours left in the phase when I posted my plan, which was 25% of the phase remaining. I didn't pay too much attention to the setup as I originally didn't see a way for alliance at signups but when I looked at the game the next day I posted my plan at irl 12pm which still had loads of time until the phase ended.

If it was as easy a plan to spot and say sooner then anyone else could have posted it sooner, and I do think 6 hours was still plenty of time but it was met with immediate resistance from yourself and specs when I posted it, causing it to not really go ahead until day.

I don't think that was the only reason. With 6 hours left I don't think there would've been enough time for the Sacrificial Lamb to claim and get enough players to verify their claim. Practically speaking, with a game that only has a 24 hour N1, something like that would've had to happen basically right away to be fully viable.

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 02:05:16 PMIf THC is luigi he should only reveal that to n1p2 not the topic. The wolves can redirect the chosen one even if dead so if that's revealed then none of the seering results will be reliable

Fair point.

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 02:18:52 PMDid I not already say they should in topic?

Yeah, although I'll just share the PM I sent N1P2.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 05:04:35 PMA potential idea to confirm the Chosen One's identity:

1. In he public thread, ask for the Chosen One to privately claim to you.

2. If anyone claims to you, give them an authentication password and ask that Luigi PMs it to you. If Luigi PMs you the password correctly, you can confirm that the original claimer is indeed the Aloof Seer, and thus human.

Up to you if you want to reveal the results in the public thread or not. You could revive them if needed.

N1P2 said it was a good plan, although pointed out that he couldn't revive the CO, which I overlooked.

i mean im not gonna not say a plan just because it's late in the phase. I didn't know if I'd be wolfed and I didn't want to die with that

Specs/TZP are you both and math guy conversations in PMs? Is math guy contributing more in pms than in topic ? He's only posted 5 times so far this game in topic but believe he contributed in pm more when he was a wolf

No activity from Math in PMs on my end.

WAH Waluigi WAH has WAH no WAH strong WAH suspicions WAH so WAH far WAH this WAH game WAH

WAH BlackDragonSlayer WAH caught WAH my WAH trick WAH first WAH so WAH probably WAH human WAH

WAH

Wolf Lean

Math: Really just going on inactivity here. To me, the Waluigi mistake indicates one wolf was somewhat inactive; the plan to reveal a blue seering should have been discussed and caught, but it wasn't.

TZP: See post #171 for an explanation regarding his vote for me. His arguments against me feel like a calculated framing. His PM with Math and I asking about the Waluigi claim could have been an attempt to draw my suspicion away from him being behind the mistake. It's not hard evidence, but I could see it. Furthermore, last game that he PM'd me to just to get my opinions on stuff was the Numbers game, which he was the wolf in. In Assassins and TTT, he did not. Again, that's not incriminating evidence, but it's something to consider.

Slight Wolf Lean

Xiao: Hasn't posted much. Ignoring inactivity has proven costly in previous games.

Slight Town Lean

BDS: Definitely gets points for catching the Waluigi mistake. The "I'm good at this game" thing was a little weird, and claiming to have been wolf-seer'd/being the miller feels like a sly distraction to reduce suspicion on him. Not going to draw too many conclusions from that, but it's something to keep in mind. Still, posts have been helpful for the town.

Toby: Posts have been helpful, and he's looked for plans/strategies to help the town. Very critical of BDS's claims of being wolf-seer'd/the miller, which is fair imo. Nothing to really bring suspicion on him, but no hard evidence to prove innocence.

Town Lean

N1P2: I believe his SL claim, and no one counterclaimed. Even if THC was the SL, I don't think a wolf would claim SL, since they wouldn't know if THC was the real SL.

Oricorio: Luigi (who I trust as the CO's alt) seer'd him green. There's a small chance he's the master wolf, but that's not even close to worth lynching him over. Posts have been helpful.

Quote from: TWG Waluigi on December 02, 2023, 05:09:54 PMWAH Waluigi WAH has WAH no WAH strong WAH suspicions WAH so WAH far WAH this WAH game WAH

WAH BlackDragonSlayer WAH caught WAH my WAH trick WAH first WAH so WAH probably WAH human WAH

WAH

bruh moment

Not sure how much I trust you honestly. If you were human I don't think the reaction test was really worth ruining your credibility for. Plus if it really was a reaction test you definitely should've said something sooner or, y'know, let one or two people know ahead of time.

I'll be honest im not exactly sure who to lean towards here. I think some of the finger pointing is quite niche and circumstantial. A lot of info will be gathered before D2.

Day ends in about 16 hrs and i wont be around for a good portion of that, due to it getting late here and me working before and after N2  start.

I'm going to wait until later to make a decision, if any. But sadly the inactivity of a couple here doesnt exactly help their case :/
I would not doubt if i die in the night, too. Most here are confident im town, although the CO is an ideal target, a blue is a blue regardless.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 05:14:50 PMTZP: See post #171 for an explanation regarding his vote for me. His arguments against me feel like a calculated framing. His PM with Math and I asking about the Waluigi claim could have been an attempt to draw my suspicion away from him being behind the mistake. It's not hard evidence, but I could see it. Furthermore, last game that he PM'd me to just to get my opinions on stuff was the Numbers game, which he was the wolf in. In Assassins and TTT, he did not. Again, that's not incriminating evidence, but it's something to consider.

Any ideas of possible pairings for TZP, or just Math?

Last game I felt like I had a good grip on all the likely pairings, but this game I unfortunately can't say nearly as much on that avenue (at least not yet).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 05:33:12 PMAny ideas of possible pairings for TZP, or just Math?

TZP/Math would be my primary, and TZP/Xiao a possibility too.

I could be convinced to vote for Math or Xiao, on the basis of inactivity.

Quote from: TWG Waluigi on December 02, 2023, 05:09:54 PMWAH Waluigi WAH has WAH no WAH strong WAH suspicions WAH so WAH far WAH this WAH game WAH

WAH BlackDragonSlayer WAH caught WAH my WAH trick WAH first WAH so WAH probably WAH human WAH

WAH

(https://i.imgur.com/QNvGsvP.jpg)

Quote from: TWG Waluigi on December 02, 2023, 05:09:54 PMWAH Waluigi WAH has WAH no WAH strong WAH suspicions WAH so WAH far WAH this WAH game WAH

WAH BlackDragonSlayer WAH caught WAH my WAH trick WAH first WAH so WAH probably WAH human WAH

WAH

A reaction test is faking a red seer result on someone, not whatever the hell this shit is. Yeah, I think this is just damage control.

Plus, Luigi's result looks more trustworthy, the lack of a red result means I'm clearly not a Miller and I'm not sure that the wolves would immediately out a greencheck that isn't the Master Wolf.

threalmathguy for now. Yeah, shruglynch, but their behavior doesn't seem atypical of their wolf behavior and they aren't exactly doing much to help town right now. I might change my vote later but "safety vote" for now.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 02, 2023, 05:14:50 PMWolf Lean
Math: Really just going on inactivity here. To me, the Waluigi mistake indicates one wolf was somewhat inactive; the plan to reveal a blue seering should have been discussed and caught, but it wasn't.
Slight Wolf Lean
Xiao: Hasn't posted much. Ignoring inactivity has proven costly in previous games.

Valid criticism on inactivity but what makes me a strong wolf lean as opposed to your slight wolf lean on Xiao?

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 08:14:21 PMValid criticism on inactivity but what makes me a strong wolf lean as opposed to your slight wolf lean on Xiao?

Honestly, fair point. I thought he spoke more than he has. Xiao hasn't posted since the phase change.

Couple of thoughts in response to Specs.

-First of all, I absolutely did open a sidebar with you and Math in the Assassin's Game? I didn't last game because I was spread pretty thin, especially early on.

-You can use different browsers to have the different accounts open at the same time. That's what people usually do for the alt games, so it's well within the realm of possibility that you did that

-I literally shot you a text after I saw Waluigi's post, referencing an inside joke—in fact texting you about the Waluigi joke was what reminded me that that's totally something you'd say if you had access to that account. If I was going to post a Waluigi meme as a wolf to frame you, why would I draw attention to it to you like that? If I was going for a "calculated framing", as you say, this is a really, REALLY on the nose way to go about doing it.

BDS asked for the quote I referenced from messages—sorry I didn't send it earlier, I was on mobile

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 01:42:49 PMI didn't love Tobys original plan because there were too many places for wolves to counterclaim and mess things up. I don't really fault Toby for trying to think of something. Slight town lean for him as a result, but it couldve been a cheap wolf play to at least attempt some chaos.

This is confusing to me, because you clearly said "does it really make much of a difference if the CO and the SL are alive or dead" in response to and during the  conversation about the possible downsides of Toby's N1 plan. Like, you can say you were just talking about the game's mechanics in general, but the thing you said very directly applied to the conversation at the time, so is that not the most reasonable interpretation of it?

Changing my vote to Xiao for now just in case I'm not online later.

Going with Xiao for now, too. Inactivity isnt helping here :/
I should be able to check my phone a couple times tomorrow before the eod just incase

Xiao hasn't shown up lately... but Waluigi has? Granted, Waluigi is multiple people if they're truly the wolf seer, and math/Xiao would align with the times Waluigi was seen active if nothing else

Suspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 10:02:43 PMXiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

but we are nowhere near lylo and can always bring back thc later??

my thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

Quote from: Oricorio on December 02, 2023, 09:44:30 PMXiao hasn't shown up lately... but Waluigi has? Granted, Waluigi is multiple people if they're truly the wolf seer, and math/Xiao would align with the times Waluigi was seen active if nothing else

i mean im almost certain, like most people here, that waluigi is the wolf account (unless luigi 'seered' oricorio, the master wolf) but i know these forums and would be smart enough not to ignore the online times lol

Quote from: XiaoMigros on December 02, 2023, 11:52:14 PMmy thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

Roles are decided by random.org. There is no point trying to figure out what role a host would "give" a specific player per consequence.

ah okay nevermind then

oh wait its not possible for the town seer to seer blue lol then its def waluigi whos wolfy

i will aim to post a suspicion list later today

Quote from: XiaoMigros on December 02, 2023, 11:52:14 PMmy thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

Yeah, if that actually happened it would be called bastardry and I'm a bit weirded out that you brought that up

excuse me?

Quote from: XiaoMigros on December 03, 2023, 01:14:20 AMexcuse me?

Why would you think a host predetermines what roles a player gets? Have you even hosted before? Doing such a thing is considered a major violation of game integrity and assuming it has happened is in my opinion disrespectful to the host, but I guess that's a topic for another day

Anyway, what do you think of the people voting you?

Please all remember to adhere to rule 16: Be nice. Have fun. Be a good sport.

Some thoughts on Xiao and math guy

mathguy
Believes Waluigi wolf slipped, but didnt want to read into BDS calling it out - I thought it was an interesting point not to want to read into BDS calling it out. I thought it was an interesting catch and leaned human on BDS for it
Supported SL lamb claim so CO could claim to them - but did so after the SL had already claimed so kind of null
Was for THC being revived tonight to also help prove SL claim. Said THC was a confirmed human which I'm not sure if we can guarantee though. No word of possibility THC could be a wolf. - maybe calling THC a confirmed human is too obvious to do if math is a wolf ? More likely might just be an oversight on human part

Xiao

Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 30, 2023, 10:45:35 AMpost to receive emails

I think this is an odd opener and not one Xiao has ever done before. It's like he wants to post but was afraid of what to say.
-felt like my plan 'costed too many humans' I didn't follow? But I think Specs and BDS had same reservations so they can't all be wolves. But maybe he was just piggy backing on their resistance so the plan wouldn't go ahead and we find out which TWG account is the CO.
-wasn't for reviving THC right now. If Xiao is a wolf this would suggest to me that THC probably isn't a wolf. I think not reviving our night 1 target can be quite damaging for the humans so I'm not sure if wolf Xiao would be so openly against it

——

Some separate thoughts on reviving THC:
The thing is if we don't revive THC and want to wait for another night kill, n1p2 is probably going to be killed n2, so another night kill won't happen until n3, which means can't be revived n4. N4 could be passed the lynch or lose point so we should revive by night 3. It could be possible THC is a wolf, so it might be an idea to hold our revive until night 3 and see if the night 2 kill feels like a better option? Or we can at least discuss our options come day 2. I don't think not having an extra human day 2 is that damaging as humans still have a lot of numbers. I also think it's likely that n1p2 will be wolfed tonight so THC might still be the only option for revival come night 3.

—

Between math and Xiao I'm not sure. If both are going to be quiet I'd rather lunch one to help process of elimination for later game. Xiao is usually more active so could post more later but then it's odd for him to be quiet, and with the first opener of the game it felt like he had resistance with posting and unsure what to say rather than it come natural

Quote from: Oricorio on December 03, 2023, 12:56:24 AMYeah, if that actually happened it would be called bastardry and I'm a bit weirded out that you brought that up

@Xiao fyi I don't think Oricorio is calling you a bastard or anything of the sort. He seems to come from a more mafia style forum rather than werewolf game and mafia uses vulgar language such as bastard or scum as meanings for other things.

I've never been clear on what bastard actually means in mafia terms though

Also @Oricorio Xiao has never hosted and I believe only played his first twg when the games were revived a few months ago - so I don't think he's questioning integrity of the host, just hasn't had experience hosting or how roles are generally selected. I've actually heard the suggestion that hosts might choose a players role for them multiple times, so apparently it's quite a common to think among newer players and not everyone realises it's all literally random

Thinking along the lines of players who have been quiet, TZP also hasn't posted much this game. Xiao actually has more posts. But doing a comparison TZP's posts are more content filled. TZP's tone this game also seems similar to his previous game where he was human, but still a change in tone from his games before that which is probably just non alignment indicative.

I'll be interested to see what Xiaos suspicion list looks like and if we would be likely to get more content from him in the game

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 02:05:49 AMmathguy
Said THC was a confirmed human which I'm not sure if we can guarantee though. No word of possibility THC could be a wolf. - maybe calling THC a confirmed human is too obvious to do if math is a wolf ? More likely might just be an oversight on human part

You're right, I'm going off the assumption that wolves didn't wolf themselves night 1. Maybe I shouldn't use the word "confirmed" but I think it's one of the strongest indications of being human we have in the game so far

Gonna try to be here for phase change but in case I'm not

specs

2 of Specs irl friends voting him, are you noticing a change in characteristic or are you both basing your reasoning on events?

Im at work and dont have time to check until a couple hours from now. What is the lynch count? Like 2 and 2 and 1 i think?

I'm back (for a tiny bit longer at least), marginally less tired, and catching up.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 10:02:43 PMneutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

I feel the similarly as I felt about Specs' earlier interaction with Waluigi. Even if he missed the fact that human seer can't seer blue, his comment was still in the context of "I think Waluigi's kind of suspicious." To me, it doesn't seem like it would be in a wolf's best interests to immediately cast shade on their wolf seer account.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on December 03, 2023, 12:18:10 AMoh wait its not possible for the town seer to seer blue lol then its def waluigi whos wolfy

Yeah, that's the issue. Except now Waluigi's suddenly trying to pivot is around as "wait it was actually a reaction test lol" which I'm not sure I buy.

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 02:13:06 AMI've actually heard the suggestion that hosts might choose a players role for them multiple times, so apparently it's quite a common to think among newer players and not everyone realises it's all literally random

What I do, personally, is I randomize the list until it says "You have randomized this list 10 times" and then that's the one I go with :P :P :P I also randomize both the role list and the player list (idr who, but it was on someone's suggestion that I started doing that) for that extra randomness factor.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 06:05:28 AMIm at work and dont have time to check until a couple hours from now. What is the lynch count? Like 2 and 2 and 1 i think?

2 on Xiao (you/me)
2 on Specs (TZP/math)
1 on math (Oricorio)
1 on TZP (Specs)

?? Might have missed some votes somewhere along the line.

IMO, I think Specs would warrant a seering (would be funny to have both seers seer Specs and see what happens), but I'm not sure if I'm fully on board with lynching Specs today.

Also the fact that Waluigi hasn't revealed their "real" seering is a bit... odd. Further points against Waluigi.

I also just caught Specs interaction with Waluigi

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on December 01, 2023, 10:08:44 AMGTH, the proximity of the Waluigi's post to the wolfing leads me to believe he's the Aloof Wolf, but thats just speculation.

I thought it was an odd comment to make though and I'm not sure on the relevance of post time next to phase being alignment indicative

If anything wouldn't wolves take longer to make a post after phase update because they have each other to discuss the seer result with first ?

... I just realised that Specs made the comment after the 'WAAA' and not the seer. But maybe Waluigi just intended to 'Waa' at the outcome of the phase update regardless

But yeah would wolf Specs make a comment to distance himself from twg Waluigi immediately if TWG Waluigi was his account? Was it possibly a 2 way plan where TWG Waluigi posts anything and Specs posts in quick succession to try distance Specs from being TWG Waluigi ? ... but then at that point there was no suspicion on TWG Waluigi to want to distance themselves ? But with the plan I proposed we should eventually find out if either TWG Waluigi or Twg Luigi are the aloof seer so maybe Specs was trying to distance immediately ??

This is all huge speculation and nothing concrete

I did just think the immediate GTH on TWG Waluigi being wolf was a bit odd
And also considering Specs had resistance towards my plan that could help us find out if TWG Luigi or Waluigi was the aloof seer... maybe it's adding up that Specs wanted to distance himself early from the tag wolf shaman

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 06:30:51 AMI thought it was an odd comment to make though and I'm not sure on the relevance of post time next to phase being alignment indicative

That's what I thought initially (mentioned it here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439443#msg439443)), but given that I posted after Waluigi had already revealed his "results" I didn't think too much of it. Regardless, I feel most wolves wouldn't want to immediately cast doubt on their seer account. Even without the slip-up that would've led to some initial hesitation toward the account.

luiiigiii

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 03, 2023, 06:43:28 AMThat's what I thought initially (mentioned it here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439443#msg439443)), but given that I posted after Waluigi had already revealed his "results" I didn't think too much of it. Regardless, I feel most wolves wouldn't want to immediately cast doubt on their seer account. Even without the slip-up that would've led to some initial hesitation toward the account.

I would agree if I hadn't said a plan that should lead to either twg Luigi or twg Waluigi being dubbed the wolf. So it's entirely possible he was distancing himself to try get ahead of the game. But that's quite the mind game.

On that did all claims come through n1p2? Do you know which TWG account is the aloof seer ?

I'm gonna be headed out (unlikely to return before phase end) so I'm changing my vote to threalmathguy (unfortunately the vote is still tied after my vote change). Xiao has posted a bit more since I made my vote and honestly I wanna hear more before I'm fully convinced to lynch Xiao. My main reason to want to lynch Xiao is I thought Xiao was deliberately being quiet, but if continues to change I might get less suspicious of Xiao.

Quote from: TWG Luigi on December 03, 2023, 06:57:54 AMluiiigiii

you ok there bub

I'll own the mistakes of not recalling that TZP started PMs in the Assassin game, as well as not realizing how little Xiao had posted prior to a few hours ago. My bad.

Toby, I get what you're saying, but it's definitely not that complex. I tuned into the phase change, saw the WAAAA, and just threw out an initial GTH reaction. That's all.

TZP seems like wasted vote at this point, so Math. Still have some time to think and get the remains votes in.

Couple hours left in phase

I'm leaning Xiao for lack of activity, and he said he'd provide a suspicion list but hasn't - although poet did this last game and was human so it might actually be a human tell rather than wolf

Or honestly maybe Specs as I've found just some of his posts to be slightly off, and he's been caught out on 2 mistakes against TZP and Math - has he been trying to grasp at straws to get ammunition against his irl friends who can read him well? I would like to hear more from TZP and math against Specs as they know him best but I think it's especially interesting they both chose to vote their irl friend day 1 and I don't think you'd do that unless you really thought they were a wolf. I don't see a wolf leading a lynch against their irl friend day 1 - seems nasty lol !

I did think I would have ended this phase voting math purely based on activity, but although he hasn't posted a lot it's not been as low as activity as previous games. I'm feeling the activity this game is actually okay, with Xiao maybe being the only exception due to his posts not having much content to them as of now.

TZP has also had low activity but his posts have been content heavy which does give us something to read. And I think it's very brave to start the first accusation of the game going against your irl friend, which is majorly risky that I don't think I see a wolf doing

^^ I feel like I should say something about this. For the last couple of games people have been talking about me like my tone has changed significantly, like I don't talk much now and when I do I'm just all business. I really don't feel like my tone has changed all that much from the way I normally play, but if it has and I'm not aware of it, it's probably because of a new job I've started. When the game revival started earlier this summer I had quite a bit of free time in front of a computer that I just don't have the luxury of now. Still really enjoy playing with you all, it's more just that my bandwidth is fuller than it was, and I'm not able to be mulling things over as actively as I was a couple of months ago.

Anyway, I am rolling up to church now and almost certainly won't be able to tag in before phase end. My leans right now are wolf on Specs, human on BDS, neutral on Oricorio and Toby, completely unsure on Math and Xiao, and I'll be happy to give my reasons for those later on. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Specs for reasons stated earlier, but I also wouldn't be unhappy to see Math/Xiao lynched, as I feel like most people don't have much of a read on them yet, and Specs talks enough that I could feel more conclusively about him one way or another based on further developments.

TZP out

I am changing my vote to Specs a bit due to the (sorry i forget the twg nickname) recent jumping on the "vote math" train so quickly.
Additionally, I agree that posts are a little off, and i have actively spoken with both TWG's. I will post information most likely after day phase change. Or at least have a contingency plan because lets be honest im dying in the night lol

Depending on the N2 results, we could have a very different game on our hands.

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 05:43:41 AM2 of Specs irl friends voting him, are you noticing a change in characteristic or are you both basing your reasoning on events?

I voted based on the reasons in my suspicion list, not a noticeable change in playstyle. I voted for Specs over Xiao because Xiao had more votes and I didn't want to set the table for an insta before I left

My gut is leaning town on math and I was leaning between specs and Xiao and given the vote count I'll put it on Specs

I think his 2 mistakes was a slip where he was trying to get further ammunition to make cases against math and TZP and was hoping to not be called out on it. I think his interaction with Waluigi was a bit odd and he had resistance to my plan which was going to help us confirm the human seer.

Also according to TZP he was showing a different tone to my plan in the topic compared to PM's which I find strange. As if he was afraid to show his true opinion in topic or trying to sway people behind the scenes.

Wolves laughing rn.

If I am lynched, I think reviving THC is a must. Get a human (likely) back in the game.

Remember, inactivity has burned us multiple times in previous games.

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Role PM's

Spoiler

[close]

---

Day 1 is over. SpecsFlyer17 was lynched.

It's now night 2. Night 2 ends december 4th 10:00AM PST/11:00AM MST/12:00PM CST/1:00PM EST/6:00PM GMT/7:00PM CET

Not the worst D1 lynch all things considered. Would've preferred holding off and seering him instead, but oh well, what can ya do.

N1P2, did the chosen one claim to you ? Can you reveal which TWG account is confirmed human seer now?

lmao what do we do if its not luigi

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 08:48:02 AMAdditionally, I agree that posts are a little off, and i have actively spoken with both TWG's. I will post information most likely after day phase change. Or at least have a contingency plan because lets be honest im dying in the night

Wait, does this mean both Luigi and Waluigi are talking to you on the side?

BDS: you definitely are giving me red role vibes but i think miller is slightly more likely

Oricorio: possibly master wolf or maybe regular wolf that was misseered. I would have expected more solve-y posts from you, but I didn't feel like we got that many

TZP: A little quiet in some areas and some of his posts seem to be trying almost too hard to score human points, but I don't have much to go off of besides that. playing with the waluigi account seems like something he would do

Toby: playing like im used to seeing toby play. largely helpful posts, with some slightly questionable strategies sometimes

Nana1Popo2: 95% sure on sacrificial lamb

mathguy: a little too quiet to formulate substantial opinions on, but I will say (as a fellow quiet player until now) that its weird how theyve just gone along with everything thats been said.

that said i dont get this quote at all:

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 10:02:43 PMneutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

last i checked oricorio didnt acknowledge the result before waluigi announced it

I hope i didnt forget anyone

Quote from: XiaoMigros on December 03, 2023, 04:17:49 PMthat said i dont get this quote at all: last i checked oricorio didnt acknowledge the result before waluigi announced it

Pretty sure what math meant is that Oricorio commented about Waluigi's blue seering result without calling it out?

Not sure I like the Specs lynch, they seem to be a standard earlygame lynch at this point and they weren't as wolfy as the first game I played with them. Would've preferred to nuke an inactive slot, but whatever.

And since some people are confused as to what "bastard" means in a mafia context, here's a short definition: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Bastard_Mod

Has Xiao randed as wolf before? Quietness at the beginning of a game may be a sign of a wolf that doesn't know what to do

Quote from: Oricorio on December 03, 2023, 04:26:33 PMAnd since some people are confused as to what "bastard" means in a mafia context, here's a short definition: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Bastard_Mod

lol that sounds absolutely wild

Quote from: Oricorio on December 03, 2023, 04:29:13 PMHas Xiao randed as wolf before? Quietness at the beginning of a game may be a sign of a wolf that doesn't know what to do

Not that I recall.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 03, 2023, 04:23:26 PMPretty sure what math meant is that Oricorio commented about Waluigi's blue seering result without calling it out?

Yes

Quote from: Oricorio on December 03, 2023, 04:29:13 PMHas Xiao randed as wolf before?

no

Quote from: Oricorio on December 03, 2023, 04:26:33 PMNot sure I like the Specs lynch, they seem to be a standard earlygame lynch at this point and they weren't as wolfy as the first game I played with them. Would've preferred to nuke an inactive slot, but whatever.

And since some people are confused as to what "bastard" means in a mafia context, here's a short definition: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Bastard_Mod

Specs was only lynched day 2 last game and apart from when he was an assassin in a game before I don't remember him being lynched another time

The most inactive slots would be math or TZP at this point I believe. But neither are as inactive as we've seen people be in previous games. I'm hoping activity picks up for both

Rereading the end of D1 I'm honestly surprised and a little concerned at how much momentum that Specs lynch picked up toward the end. When Specs changed his vote to Math, that made it 3 on Math to 2 on him (and 1 on Xiao from N1P2). N1P2 then flipped to Specs to tie it up 3-3, and then Toby pushed the lynch onto Specs in the last half hour of the phase. As a human, I was already somewhat ambivalent about whether I wanted to lynch Specs or a less active player, and I think that most human players would feel the same, so I could interpret Toby's last-minute vote switch as a no-other-choice protection move for Math as a wolf partner. If Specs wasn't a wolf, I'd say this suggests itself to me as the most likely possibility.

N1P2, it's very likely that you're going to die tonight--please don't go gently! If you have info on the side from the alts or especially the Chosen One, please share it before you die so that that player doesn't have to expose himself.

Also N1P2 this is not relevant to the game but I remember really liking some of your arrangements when I joined the site in like 2013. You did the Mario ground theme from Brawl back in the day, right?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 08:17:54 AMRereading the end of D1 I'm honestly surprised and a little concerned at how much momentum that Specs lynch picked up toward the end. When Specs changed his vote to Math, that made it 3 on Math to 2 on him (and 1 on Xiao from N1P2). N1P2 then flipped to Specs to tie it up 3-3, and then Toby pushed the lynch onto Specs in the last half hour of the phase. As a human, I was already somewhat ambivalent about whether I wanted to lynch Specs or a less active player, and I think that most human players would feel the same, so I could interpret Toby's last-minute vote switch as a no-other-choice protection move for Math as a wolf partner. If Specs wasn't a wolf, I'd say this suggests itself to me as the most likely possibility.

N1P2, it's very likely that you're going to die tonight--please don't go gently! If you have info on the side from the alts or especially the Chosen One, please share it before you die so that that player doesn't have to expose himself.

I want to point out I didn't just turn in the last 30 mins I had been discussing Specs as an option for half of the last day

Specs made 2 mistakes of over exaggerating his points in his accusations. As a human if he is trying to find the wolves he wouldn't be over exaggerating points for his accusations, he would be making an honest case. I seen it as an attempt to swap peoples with false information. There was also a couple weird comments he had made which I had highlighted.

I don't find it surprising he gained votes at all I thought it felt good for a day 1. I am surprised that you're surprised though given you voted him and didn't say anything against anyone else lol. I also thought that both yourself and math voting for him was quite damning when 1) you both know him irl and 2) you both had private conversations with him.

My parting words:

Someone here and I have been in consistent contact with my findings in game. I won't disclose them until they wish to, but I decided to trust them early on and since then (to my sheepish mind) has not shown any wolfy tendencies.
They will likely come forth after my passing, but if they choose not to, in order to protect their identity, they dont have to. If I'm alive, well then howdy-doody this became easier lol.

First, both TWGs have contacted me over the past day cycle. Starting with Waluigi.

QuoteHey, I'm the Aloof Seer... WAH

I didn't realise you claimed to topic and was asking for claims. I've not been keeping up. It's [redacted name that will be revealed later] btw.

Basically, I claimed I had a blue result just to see if there was any reactions. Plus, I wasn't sure if it was even a good idea to reveal my real Seer result to the topic at that point.

N1 I got that math was green, but from my perspective, I thought revealing who I seered would help wolves narrow down who I could be. When I decided it probably wasn't best to name the person I seered, I thought "Why not just say I got a blue result and see who picks up on it?". I thought it was worth a try, and think it got some interesting reactions.
[...]

(a later quote from Waluigi after i misread and asked for clarification):

QuoteI put it in the topic at the start of the day just to spark conversation.

I think BDS' reaction was interesting and I would give him human read for it.

I've only told you that I seered math green.

Lol k. So the plot thickens.
Then, 6 hours later I get another PM:

Quotehello im the CO, i can prove it to you by posting 'luiiigiii' (with 3 i's each) on the luigi account later today

This is from [also redacted name].

Later, the post is made in topic here.

--

As I'm running out of time, I will impart you with this:

If cool stuff happens overnight: Then TWG Luigi is the Aloof Seer. Waluigi owner is suspect (could be wolf, or miller/human fodder; need to discuss.)
If cool stuff doesnt happen: TWG Luigi is a wolf and needs to be lynched D2.

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Role PM's

Spoiler

[close]

---

Night 2 is over. XiaoMigros was wolf'd. ThatHiddenCharacter was revived.

It's now day 2. Day 2 ends december 6th 10:00AM PST/11:00AM MST/12:00PM CST/1:00PM EST/6:00PM GMT/7:00PM CET

lol ok well this should be fun

I was the one in contact with N1P2 all this time, but I guess the measures we took to ensure the release of info aren't necessary now, for... some reason.

wolves wyd

What the hell are the wolves even doing at this point? I guess we should look for at least one wolf in the "expected" nightkills

Xiao?? N1P2 what the hell happened there? Does this qualify as "cool stuff happening overnight"?

Also welcome back THC

I don't see any reason why the confirmed human wouldn't have been wolfed?

Unless there was someone Xiao was sus of but I didn't see any of that? Or maybe wolves seered Xiao blue and took a shot hoping it would be the seer ? But the seer can still play via twg luigi so you don't really lose a player by doing that just a vote.

Quote from: Toby on December 04, 2023, 10:43:45 AMI don't see any reason why the confirmed human wouldn't have been wolfed?

Unless there was someone Xiao was sus of but I didn't see any of that? Or maybe wolves seered Xiao blue and took a shot hoping it would be the seer ? But the seer can still play via twg luigi so you don't really lose a player by doing that just a vote.

Given the context of the THC wolfing, I think the wolves may be going full "lol random" mode.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 10:52:47 AMGiven the context of the THC wolfing, I think the wolves may be going full "lol random" mode.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 11:37:40 AMAs a member of the wolf team in Nothing Special 2, I can say that BDS' wolfing N1 was selected by random.org

It definitely is a possible wolf strat

I'm interested to know what "cool stuff" means so we can determine which Luigi is a wolf now that there are claims to them

Preferably after seer results so it doesn't influence the wolf seer's "result," but if this cool stuff is evidence against the wolf seer, that person may go quiet

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 11:05:08 AMIt definitely is a possible wolf strat

::)

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 11:14:15 AMI'm interested to know what "cool stuff" means so we can determine which Luigi is a wolf now that there are claims to them

Preferably after seer results so it doesn't influence the wolf seer's "result," but if this cool stuff is evidence against the wolf seer, that person may go quiet

I don't want to steal N1P2's thunder here but I think that the night's events mean TWG Luigi is probably guaranteed to be the seer on the level now

I will disclose more when seer results are given.

I also am back at work so may have long periods of silence the rest of this irl day. Sorry!

I suppose we can wait for seer results

Hoping to see more from Oricorio, math guy and TZP this phase

Oricorio did great with gathering reads in his first game here and I've missed seeing that this game. I'm not sure if he's just taken the green seer result and decided to play quiet ?

Quote from: Toby on December 04, 2023, 01:35:02 PMI suppose we can wait for seer results

Hoping to see more from Oricorio, math guy and TZP this phase

Oricorio did great with gathering reads in his first game here and I've missed seeing that this game. I'm not sure if he's just taken the green seer result and decided to play quiet ?

Quiet may be the wrong word for Oricorio this game, more play it safe and as I've not seen any aggressiveness this game at all from him

Looking at possible pairings for Specs and Oricorio actually fits nicely. Neither have really even looked at eachother the entire game apart from having one conversation about game mechanics

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 11:17:21 AMI don't want to steal N1P2's thunder here but I think that the night's events mean TWG Luigi is probably guaranteed to be the seer on the level now

Every time I start thinking you're human, you say something like this that really gives ??? vibes

Not only does it feel like you know something you probably (as a human) shouldn't know regarding the seers, but it's also the kind of thing that definitely doesn't need to be said when N1P2 already has things under control and has a plan to reveal the true human seer's identity (the same also goes for Toby pushing for info release about which seer is the real seer N2).

How is asking if N1p2 knows which TWG seer is the real seer odd vibes? It was part of the process of the plan I suggested which would ensure that once both seers claim we would know which is the real one unless there was a chosen one counterclaim.

I don't see how revealing which twg account is anything but a benefit to humans, so rather than n1p2 keep all the information between them and the Chosen One I'd like the humans to be able to know so I can then see what interactions around which twg account I can look into

Based on N1P2s recent posts though it sounds like there was a counter claim so im hoping we should know who to lynch today if we've also confirmed which twg account is the wolf

Quote from: Toby on December 04, 2023, 03:13:58 PMHow is asking if N1p2 knows which TWG seer is the real seer odd vibes? It was part of the process of the plan I suggested which would ensure that once both seers claim we would know which is the real one unless there was a chosen one counterclaim.

Because it gives vibes of "wolf trying to figure out whether their ruse was believed."

QuoteI don't see how revealing which twg account is anything but a benefit to humans, so rather than n1p2 keep all the information between them and the Chosen One I'd like the humans to be able to know so I can then see what interactions around which twg account I can look into

Without revealing too much (out of an abundance of caution), there was a chance the wolves could have unintentionally given us information if they thought that we believed their claim over the real human seer's. Regardless, there was very little reason to try and publicly pressure N1P2 to release it rather than assuming N1P2 simply would—and if was that much of a legitimate concern, asking via PM would've made more sense.

I mean there was little to no info given so I didn't know there was a counterclaim or any ruses to be had

And I don't think revealing there is a counterclaim or any claim is much to ask given that if a wolf claims they know there is a counterclaim as they are the one countering lol. In fact not revealing it is letting the wolf team be aware there is a counter and the human team are in the dark lol

But N1P2 has just been quiet generally so I think asking for updates is fair and I was especially curious as it was me who suggested it and wanted to make sure N1P2 was going through with it as I had imagined lol

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 03:25:54 PMBecause it gives vibes of "wolf trying to figure out whether their ruse was believed."
Without revealing too much (out of an abundance of caution), there was a chance the wolves could have unintentionally given us information if they thought that we believed their claim over the real human seer's. Regardless, there was very little reason to try and publicly pressure N1P2 to release it rather than assuming N1P2 simply would—and if was that much of a legitimate concern, asking via PM would've made more sense.

In fact I have been PMing with N1P2, and have been far more discreet in the thread than I have been in discussion on the side. I was not at all pressuring N1P2 to yield up information, and will be happy to explain my train of thought in public once he has done so.

Luigi eagerly awaits the results!
Luigi also apologises for his previous, overreactive comment.

Sorry, i find it tedious to go back and quote other messages when i don't have a lot of time here at work, however i think it safe to clear this:

Yes, obviously i revived THC to see if they were the CO. I dont see any harm in revealing that he was counter-claimed to by (obvious to me now) the real CO. I wont disclose their name out of their protection.

For now, until further discussion takes place, i wont reveal which TWG account is the real slim shady or not. I would find it interesting if they posted their thoughts or results in here or with me privately. They obviously know the jig is up on their end, but somehow i have been granted an additional day of life.

The results of the seering though...
The real OS claimed Toby was green.
The wolf account claimed Toby was red.

For now, this may not be a lot of help for the rest of the town, but for the ten minutes i have on break, this is what i can muster haha. I have a few more hours of work, but can check back in more so then!

THC, being the wild card that he is, is not necessarily out of the clear just yet. It would be nice to hear him speak on the happenings since N1!

As N1P2 said, the wolf account claimed to be THC. We know the wolf account is the fake account because THC was revived. Personally, I'm very interested to see what THC has to say about all this.

Yeah, I was busy today, had to go in for a job interview and also work on preparations for a game I've hosted on MU, but I'll see what I can do now. It seems that the wolf seer has been figured out, which is good.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 08:37:21 AMAlso N1P2 this is not relevant to the game but I remember really liking some of your arrangements when I joined the site in like 2013. You did the Mario ground theme from Brawl back in the day, right?

Also... ty xD
That was such a long time ago, i loved the work i put into that haha. And i also like the newer version too :) definitely beats my attempt

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 04:25:16 PMThe results of the seering though...
The real OS claimed Toby was green.
The wolf account claimed Toby was red.

Why is everyone so obsessed with me

That's quite the bipolar result

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 04:31:02 PMAs N1P2 said, the wolf account claimed to be THC. We know the wolf account is the fake account because THC was revived. Personally, I'm very interested to see what THC has to say about all this.

I'm still betting on Waluigi being the wolf, because this fuck-up seems in-character for them.

inb4 he says it's a "reaction test"

I'm not sure I follow the logic in determining which Luigi is the wolf but I guess we'll hear more that'll clear it up.

What I do know though is if N1P2 is confident in which seer is real, then Toby is likely human because the wolves wouldn't want to frame their master wolf

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 04:31:02 PMAs N1P2 said, the wolf account claimed to be THC. We know the wolf account is the fake account because THC was revived. Personally, I'm very interested to see what THC has to say about all this.

Wait, what? When did N1P2 say this?

Although why didn't wolves shoot N1P if they were at risk of being exposed by them? Trying to use THC as cover makes sense for why they would kill them first but it doesn't explain the XiaoMigros kill

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 04:25:16 PMYes, obviously i revived THC to see if they were the CO. I dont see any harm in revealing that he was counter-claimed to by (obvious to me now) the real CO.

Aka, the wolf twg claimed to be THC.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 06:04:03 PMAka, the wolf twg claimed to be THC.

Oh what. That's not what I thought that meant at all. Why would an alt falseclaim a player that had a high likelihood of being revived??

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 06:09:26 PMOh what. That's not what I thought that meant at all. Why would an alt falseclaim a player that had a high likelihood of being revived??

The real CO proved to me they were the real one with the "luiiigiii" post a while back

Oh, well i guess that solves that lol

Spoiler alert. I guess that clears up who is who

Now FIGHT

So Waluigi fucked up not once but twice lol. Will they even dare to show their face again?

Ahh so the real THC didn't claim anything, that makes more sense.

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

Not confirmed for all obviously

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 07:25:06 PMAhh so the real THC didn't claim anything, that makes more sense.

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

Not confirmed for all obviously

Based on the easiest possible facts, yes.

Unless there is some real deep stuff happening, i believe Toby to be more human than THC. There is still a solid chance THC is wolf or even miller (less likely). Just want to hear him share his thoughts more.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 07:42:25 PMBased on the easiest possible facts, yes.

Unless there is some real deep stuff happening, i believe Toby to be more human than THC. There is still a solid chance THC is wolf or even miller (less likely). Just want to hear him share his thoughts more.

Why would wolves kill one of their own then claim ownership of the seer account under the dead wolf, knowing full well that it's an easy lie to expose? That seems convoluted even for WIFOM

Quote from: Oricorio on December 04, 2023, 07:49:58 PMWhy would wolves kill one of their own then claim ownership of the seer account under the dead wolf, knowing full well that it's an easy lie to expose? That seems convoluted even for WIFOM

WIFOM?

Because it 1) can waste my revive and 2) can be just convoluted enough to work. Wolfs themself, claims CO to me knowing at some point real CO would claim, forces revive to prove which is real, but gains town's favor due to likelihood.

Lol. Let's say its not the most convoluted over thinking ive been doing this game so far 😅

Or, and less likely due to other knowledge, they saw red from being the miller, and then fale claimed to bring them back and cause further confusion.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 08:08:01 PMWIFOM?

Because it 1) can waste my revive and 2) can be just convoluted enough to work. Wolfs themself, claims CO to me knowing at some point real CO would claim, forces revive to prove which is real, but gains town's favor due to likelihood.

Lol. Let's say its not the most convoluted over thinking ive been doing this game so far 😅

Wine In Front Of Me, the dilemma that arises when trying to determine whether a player has made the optimal but expected choice or the suboptimal but unexpected choice. The title is a reference to the famous scene from The Princess Bride. I keep forgetting that many of the mafia terms that I consider common knowledge aren't used here

Quote from: Oricorio on December 04, 2023, 07:49:58 PMWhy would wolves kill one of their own then claim ownership of the seer account under the dead wolf, knowing full well that it's an easy lie to expose? That seems convoluted even for WIFOM

To be fair, THC is exactly the type of player who would make that play. He is well and truly a wildcard :P

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 07:25:06 PMAhh so the real THC didn't claim anything, that makes more sense.

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

Not confirmed for all obviously

Of note, the Redirection Wolf can keep spamming their power as much as they like until it's successful once. It's entirely possible the wolves took a shot in the dark and redirected the human seer which would've seered Toby green. As soon as they saw THC being revived they knew their ruse was busted and gave a Toby red seering (which is possibly true) for the mindgames factor (possibly not knowing they had successfully redirected the seering—getting two red results on Toby would've been an interesting outcome). N1P2 deliberately asked both seers to seer the same target so it's not like they picked their own targets necessarily.

Ugh. Not having cardflips on really plays up the mindgames factors in this sorta game, especially cause most everyone (not you N1P2 you cool) is acting varying degrees of sussy.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 10:17:13 PMTo be fair, THC is exactly the type of player who would make that play. He is well and truly a wildcard :P

I will say, if THC is a wolf that is a damn good play and one that few would actually dare to go through with (for good reason—it's basically the ultimate high risk high reward), but if THC's a human the fact that he's exactly the type of player who would do that as a wolf doesn't exactly bode well for us.

Of note, if THC's a wolf, Xiao was probably wolfed as another random pick so that N1P2 could be wolfed N3 (thus avoiding the question of "wait why wasn't THC wolfed N3?" if N1P2 had been wolfed last night).

Just checking in to say I'm aware I've been revived and will give more insight once I'm home from work.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 10:30:50 PMI will say, if THC is a wolf that is a damn good play and one that few would actually dare to go through with

That is absolutely something I would do. And have done in a previous game, sort of. Just without the revive part. Also, I can confirm that I never claimed to be either TWG account to N1P2. I haven't even DMed anyone this game, yet.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 08:08:01 PMWIFOM?

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 02:49:45 AM

Aw this one cut off the ending

This is longer version

This games a mess

So Waluigi was claiming to be THC banking on him not being revived so the claim could hold true ? Or Waluigi claimed to be THC so wolf THC didn't look like a wolf and could be revived ?

With THC being alive and n1p2 not being dead, I guess that means both won't be wolfed by the time lynch or lose comes around on day 3? So by wolfing Xiao last night, THC has reason to survive longer.

Or is this all just a big distraction ?

Me being seered both red and green is interesting. I'm not sure if that means I'm a miller and the wolf was redirected or I'm just a green human and the wolves are trying to pin me up

I'm not sure how I feel about math guy repetitively calling me a human today since a green seering from the human seer could still mean master wolf. But then I also don't know what game the wolves could be playing by calling their master wolf red

Quote from: Oricorio on December 04, 2023, 06:40:56 PMSo Waluigi fucked up not once but twice lol. Will they even dare to show their face again?

Do you just mean Waluigi specifically fucked up or also the both wolves behind him in general ?

It seems we are no further forward to solving this game apart from still having the specials in alliance so at least we have some confirmed humans there. I can't tell if the wolves are ducking up or stirring shit on purpose

We've only had green seer results from Luigi so far and the apparent chosen one counter claim was THC who was dead lol. So im guessing we have no direction yet on a lynch today from our alliance ?

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 07:25:06 PMWell then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

I wouldn't put myself or Toby in that list. As previously stated, if anyone would wolf themselves, it would be me. And Toby could just as easily be Master Wolf as any other green role.

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 03:23:12 AMthe apparent chosen one counter claim was THC who was dead lol.

Based on the way N1P2 said it, it sounds more like TWG Waluigi claimed to be me. Which isn't true, so I feel it's pretty safe to assume TWG Luigi is the actual Aloof Seer, though I believe that's already been stated.

The issue I'm currently having is that TWG Waluigi's behavior seems to be in line with someone newer to TWG. However, as far as I can tell, only one newer player is still alive. The only way I could see TWG Waluigi continuing to make mistakes like this, since all the veterans have been active since the initial slip-up, would be for both wolves to be newer. I feel it's safe to assume Xiao wasn't a wolf, so the only pairing I could think of as being very viable is Specs/math. However, a veteran definitely could be playing this way to try and confuse us as well. I also wonder, since lots of people were saying to wait and see the N2 kill before reviving anyone, if Xiao was a wolf and the wolves thought they could get Xiao revived instead of me on N3? But that feels like a stretch. Either way, math is definitely at the top of my list right now. I'ma go reread some stuff and then post an actual suspicion list.

Suspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

I don't know if Oricorio playing more considerate  for NSM TWG is accurate. If he is playing to be more considerate for NSM and thus playing more reserved, I would expect him to also be considerate on his mafia foreign word choice as he was also called out on that in previous games. But he's still using foreign mafia terms like Scum, Bastard, WIFOM.

It might be true he's trying to play less aggressive due to the reaction last game but I'm not sure if I could say he's actively trying to be considerate fo NSM TWG

I could only see math guy being a wolf if Specs wasn't a wolf

Math guy and Oricorio could be a pairing just as I think Specs/Oricorio could be a pairing as they've not really looked at eachother this game. Oricorio did safety on math so there's just enough of a 'separation' there that could look like they tried to distance themselves. Math and TZP could be a pairing too but I think this one could be less likely as they both voted Specs together for the same reasoning and I think that's a little too obvious of a teaming for wolf partners

I was hoping math would have got seered last night to get a bit more info on him

So if the Seer results are to be believed, Toby and I aren't w/w. Of course, I knew that already, but now you have no excuse to not know that

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 07:24:53 AMI don't know if Oricorio playing more considerate  for NSM TWG is accurate. If he is playing to be more considerate for NSM and thus playing more reserved, I would expect him to also be considerate on his mafia foreign word choice as he was also called out on that in previous games. But he's still using foreign mafia terms like Scum, Bastard, WIFOM.

It might be true he's trying to play less aggressive due to the reaction last game but I'm not sure if I could say he's actively trying to be considerate fo NSM TWG

I've explained why I'm a little less active: combination of me wanting to take it a little easy after 1k posting in my last game and me also hosting a game on MU right now

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 05, 2023, 06:04:08 AMSuspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

What are your thoughts on Specs, since you weren't around for their lynching? (And Xiao I guess, but the chances of them being a wolf now are miniscule)

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 03:15:38 AMI'm not sure how I feel about math guy repetitively calling me a human today since a green seering from the human seer could still mean master wolf. But then I also don't know what game the wolves could be playing by calling their master wolf red

Yeah, nothing is confirmed. But I believe the green and red seer results are a frame attempt by the wolves. It is possible that Waluigi realized the jig was up and decided to give a deliberately suspicious result that no one would believe in order to "clear" you.

That being said, I'm not sure why you're not sure about getting a human read. Unless we are wolf partners, which you know is not true, I wouldn't be trying to clear you unless I thought we were both humans (and if you're a wolf idk why you're calling this out)

THC, reading over Waluigi's PM that N1P2 posted (on mobile so linking is difficult), who do you think might have written it based on the posting style?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 11:21:44 AMTHC, reading over Waluigi's PM that N1P2 posted (on mobile so linking is difficult), who do you think might have written it based on the posting style?

I thought we weren't allowed to meta-game like that. But you're TWC, so it must be fine. Rereading posts from everyone, the only person other than me who never misses punctuation in this game is Specs. Specifically putting periods at the ends of sentences. A few people here do it fairly consistently, but not 100% of the time. However, Specs does, as does Waluigi it would seem.

Hm, now that you point it out, that does make sense. And who do you think might be Specs' most likely partner?

Also, for all we know Waluigi could have made a careful effort to replicate your own posting style (or at least what they thought your posting style was), but I like the observation nonetheless.

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 03:08:22 AMThis games a mess

So Waluigi was claiming to be THC banking on him not being revived so the claim could hold true ? Or Waluigi claimed to be THC so wolf THC didn't look like a wolf and could be revived ?

With THC being alive and n1p2 not being dead, I guess that means both won't be wolfed by the time lynch or lose comes around on day 3? So by wolfing Xiao last night, THC has reason to survive longer.

Or is this all just a big distraction ?

Me being seered both red and green is interesting. I'm not sure if that means I'm a miller and the wolf was redirected or I'm just a green human and the wolves are trying to pin me up

I like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439361#msg439361) (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 12:46:23 PMI like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439361#msg439361) (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

Judging by my hosting experience, wolves here seem to not be that active. Might have been the players that randed wolf, but eh. But the bigger tell is that they don't seem to have noticed the obvious flaw in their plan that would have been caught with a decent amount of discussion. Also, Waluigi posted only a few minutes after phase change, so they could not have had the result for long. Perhaps they discussed on how they were willing to out their result, but didn't discuss the result being blue. In any case, I think assuming both wolves were too ignorant to realize the flaws despite discussing it would lead us down the wrong path, as I believe that narrows the PoE too much to be realistic. It's likely that one partner screwed up and the other is trying to take advantage of the screwup in order to gain towncred.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 05, 2023, 11:40:13 AMI thought we weren't allowed to meta-game like that. But you're TWC, so it must be fine. Rereading posts from everyone, the only person other than me who never misses punctuation in this game is Specs. Specifically putting periods at the ends of sentences. A few people here do it fairly consistently, but not 100% of the time. However, Specs does, as does Waluigi it would seem.

Do we really have enough of a sample size of Waluigi's posts to make that conclusion? The dead player being Waluigi seems too easy

I guess we can infer that Waluigi's THC claim was motivated by not wanting to out the real account and thus claimed to be the one player who couldn't defend themselves at that time. There was a high risk of being outed, but there really was no other choice. The question here is whether their original kill on THC was motivated by preparing for such a scenario and what that means for the Xiao kill.

I still lack any real reason to townread threalmathguy.

So, there's a question of why Waluigi would lie about Toby's seer result when they know they'd be exposed? Though I'm not sure if BDS or N1P specified whether the seers were told that they were seering the same target

Also I think threalmathguy was allegedly seered green by Waluigi? That could be a lie, threalmathguy could be the master wolf, or this whole thing could be a smokescreen. It's probably not worth reading into

Because we like analyzing the way people type, here are the only other two replies i have from Waluigi:

In response to the seer choice

QuoteCool. Will post result tomorrow.

In response to the seer result

QuoteLooks like you lived ?

Toby is red.

WAHHHHH

Apologies for not the most active commenter, but my thoughts have been an ever increasing town read on Toby and a slower increased wolf-read on Ori.
Most of my sus happens on intuition and consistency rather than "he said/she said" or looking deep into previous posts, however...

Readings all of a sudden are shifting towards a wolf-lean Toby because of the typing tendencies that have been mentioned here prior.

I'm looking at the spaces before question marks and I don't see anyone else here doing them except for Toby. That's not entirely a... natural tendency imo.
Queue the reference material:

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 03:08:22 AMThis games a mess

So Waluigi was claiming to be THC banking on him not being revived so the claim could hold true ? Or Waluigi claimed to be THC so wolf THC didn't look like a wolf and could be revived ?

With THC being alive and n1p2 not being dead, I guess that means both won't be wolfed by the time lynch or lose comes around on day 3? So by wolfing Xiao last night, THC has reason to survive longer.

Or is this all just a big distraction ?

Me being seered both red and green is interesting. I'm not sure if that means I'm a miller and the wolf was redirected or I'm just a green human and the wolves are trying to pin me up

Earlier, the first PM from Waluigi, I believe could have also been Specs due to the nature of such proper grammar and punctuation... perhaps the account is traded off to mix it up.

I would like to hear further speculation on the matter.
But i'll submit my gut lynch vote for Oricorio, for now. Highly subject to change.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 05, 2023, 03:42:57 PMBecause we like analyzing the way people type, here are the only other two replies i have from Waluigi:

In response to the seer choice
In response to the seer result
Apologies for not the most active commenter, but my thoughts have been an ever increasing town read on Toby and a slower increased wolf-read on Ori.
Most of my sus happens on intuition and consistency rather than "he said/she said" or looking deep into previous posts, however...

Readings all of a sudden are shifting towards a wolf-lean Toby because of the typing tendencies that have been mentioned here prior.

I'm looking at the spaces before question marks and I don't see anyone else here doing them except for Toby. That's not entirely a... natural tendency imo.
Queue the reference material:
Earlier, the first PM from Waluigi, I believe could have also been Specs due to the nature of such proper grammar and punctuation... perhaps the account is traded off to mix it up.

I would like to hear further speculation on the matter.
But i'll submit my gut lynch vote for Oricorio, for now. Highly subject to change.

Pourquoi moi?

As for the analysis, is "space+question mark" a well-known enough tic for Toby that it could be faked ?

(Faking it myself for demonstration)

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 03:47:27 PMAs for the analysis, is "space+question mark" a well-known enough tic for Toby that it could be faked ?

(Faking it myself for demonstration)

It's very possible that someone else could have noticed it and deliberately added it in to try and frame Toby. Toby himself does it inconsistently from what I can see, though, so I'm not sure if anyone else would've picked up on it being a Toby thing specifically.

I also think it's likely that both wolves have used the account and posted/PM'd from it at different points. Possible that the second wolf took over after the Waluigi slip.

Well apparently I've done that quite a lot recently

It looks like whoever is speaking from the Waluigi is intending to mimick other posting styles

If they hadn't called me red it would have been less obvious they tried to mimick me. Or were they trying to mimick me the whole time ? The other PMs sounded quite abrasive and grammatical so I don't think so. Unless it's 2 people sending the PMs trying to mimick other people each time?

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 04:05:11 PMWell apparently I've done that quite a lot recently

It looks like whoever is speaking from the Waluigi is intending to mimick other posting styles

If they hadn't called me red it would have been less obvious they tried to mimick me. Or were they trying to mimick me the whole time ? The other PMs sounded quite abrasive and grammatical so I don't think so. Unless it's 2 people sending the PMs trying to mimick other people each time?

If that's true, are there any hints of who they're mimicking besides you? I don't believe they're mimicking me, otherwise you'd see more mafia terms used or something like that

Well the use of proper grammar and periods at the end of sentences could be THC, Specs, BDS

Quote from: Toby on December 05, 2023, 04:21:08 PMWell the use of proper grammar and periods at the end of sentences could be THC, Specs, BDS

That sounds too generic to be specific to anyone

I find myself profoundly offended that I am not included in the pool of perfect grammar users!

In all seriousness, I'm also leaning toward an Oricorio vote right now and away from the Toby/Math pairing that I was considering during N2. My thinking on Oricorio is that he has been the one to point out and condemn the TWG Waluigi slip most strongly. After it happened, I've been looking closely for people to act embarrassed by or dismissive toward it, and Oricorio is the player who's done this far and away the most.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 01, 2023, 01:53:34 PMThe idea that two wolves would have discussed outing a blue result for hours and not realize the obvious problems is simply absurd to me. I'd like to think that we're all smarter than that.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 02, 2023, 08:09:02 PMA reaction test is faking a red seer result on someone, not whatever the hell this shit is.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 04, 2023, 10:16:16 AMWhat the hell are the wolves even doing at this point?

Quote from: Oricorio on December 04, 2023, 06:40:56 PMSo Waluigi fucked up not once but twice lol. Will they even dare to show their face again?

To me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 03:47:27 PMAs for the analysis, is "space+question mark" a well-known enough tic for Toby that it could be faked ?

(Faking it myself for demonstration)

I dont see it being something faked just to be caught.. its soooo niche. Like instinctive almost

Also, TZP, my thoughts exactly^

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 05, 2023, 05:12:13 PMI find myself profoundly offended that I am not included in the pool of perfect grammar users!

In all seriousness, I'm also leaning toward an Oricorio vote right now and away from the Toby/Math pairing that I was considering during N2. My thinking on Oricorio is that he has been the one to point out and condemn the TWG Waluigi slip most strongly. After it happened, I've been looking closely for people to act embarrassed by or dismissive toward it, and Oricorio is the player who's done this far and away the most.

To me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

Believe me, if that were the plan I wouldn't have waited for someone else to jump on it first. I also don't think that immediately discrediting the wolf seer is a good wolf strategy, but whatever.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 05, 2023, 05:12:13 PMTo me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

That's a good point too. It's entirely possible the wolves knew they weren't likely to convince the SL that their seer was the real one (and absolutely didn't want their identity tied to it) so they leaned full well into using Waluigi as a device to frame people by ruining its credibility from the start.

ninja'd

So, the current state of play:

1. BlackDragonSlayer: Most widely townread
2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: Killed N1, revived N2
4. Toby: Green checked by human seer
5. Oricorio: Green checked by human seer
6. SpecsFlyer17: Lynched D1
7. XiaoMigros: Killed N2
8. threalmathguy: Allegedly green checked by wolf seer
9. Nana1Popo2: Un-cc'd SL

Looking at this, TZP and math have the least reason to be townread, and thus I feel TZP/math/Toby is a good PoE. Of course, if one of them turns out to be the human seer they can be removed from the PoE.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 05:40:44 PMThat's a good point too. It's entirely possible the wolves knew they weren't likely to convince the SL that their seer was the real one (and absolutely didn't want their identity tied to it) so they leaned full well into using Waluigi as a device to frame people by ruining its credibility from the start.

ninja'd

Although who exactly would Waluigi be framing, besides Toby I guess? But then the wolf would have presented a red check on Toby when they know it won't be seen as credible?

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 05:42:09 PMSo, the current state of play:

1. BlackDragonSlayer: Most widely townread
2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: Killed N1, revived N2
4. Toby: Green checked by human seer
5. Oricorio: Green checked by human seer
6. SpecsFlyer17: Lynched D1
7. XiaoMigros: Killed N2
8. threalmathguy: Allegedly green checked by wolf seer
9. Nana1Popo2: Un-cc'd SL

Looking at this, TZP and math have the least reason to be townread, and thus I feel TZP/math/Toby is a good PoE. Of course, if one of them turns out to be the human seer they can be removed from the PoE.

You need to clarify that Ori was green checked N1 and Toby green checked N2

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 05, 2023, 05:46:41 PMYou need to clarify that Ori was green checked N1 and Toby green checked N2

Does the exact time matter? Or do you have a lead on the Redirection Wolf we don't know about?

With 7 alive, 5-2 worst case scenario, a PoE of three wins the game. Just hope we're not misclearing BDS. Also the reason why I don't want to be lynched, unless you have really good reason to believe one of Toby/math/TZP is town it will lead to there being too big of a PoE

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 05:43:41 PMAlthough who exactly would Waluigi be framing, besides Toby I guess? But then the wolf would have presented a red check on Toby when they know it won't be seen as credible?

Toby, THC, possibly Specs. The idea would be to sow doubt to make us uncertain.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 05:48:16 PMDoes the exact time matter? Or do you have a lead on the Redirection Wolf we don't know about?

That's the thing too is we don't know. If they were taking a random shot in the dark it wouldn't matter whether it was redirected N1 or N2, but if they got a blue seering from their N1 result and then redirected that person N2 there's a good chance they could've successfully redirected the seer N2.

To those who believe in Specs/me as a pairing, keep in mind that lynching me would disprove that pairing immediately. Got any backup options?

Since the last day cycle, my top two sus suspects have gone down. I believe Xiao is the more likely human of Xiao and Specs given the nature of their deaths (wolf vs lynch). I think Specs is a likely Waluigi, as well as Oricorio due to reaction of the first seering and the reasons TZP mentioned, and I still think it is possible they are wolves together. It's also probably easier to bash Waluigi for messing up if it's yourself.

I still want to believe in Toby and THC, but their reactions to my human reads were strange, THC more so than Toby. I read it more as a "think this through more" than anything too wolfy, but THC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

I'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout. I think BDS and Toby/TZP probably go opposite ways and right now I'm leaning town on Toby/TZP. This isn't as strong of a theory in my mind though.

So for votes I'm between Oricorio, BDS and THC

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 05, 2023, 07:20:29 PMTHC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

To be fair, this is the same THC who (as a human) stated that he was fully willing to help a wolf (me) win in the assassin game :P

QuoteI'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout.

I don't think I would've done either of those things as a wolf. Too risky with not enough of a guarantee of benefit for my tastes.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 06:27:43 PMTo those who believe in Specs/me as a pairing, keep in mind that lynching me would disprove that pairing immediately. Got any backup options?

Yes! Oricorio.

(seriously though I do have a few backup options in mind, some of which should hopefully be cleared up by the next seering)

I will try to be awake before the end of the phase in case I need to change my vote, but again, I cannot 100% guarantee it. Gonna still be around for a few more hours too.

Voting someone who is seered green is... a choice. Still think threalmathguy is a good option, and if not him then TZP. Lynching me would ruin my perfectly good PoE

I guess I'm stuck in this "damned if I do, damned if I don't" position in this community. Nowhere else am I an easy mislynch

If math is a wolf, leaving a slanking wolf alive late in the game is disastrous if the last couple of games are an indication

Wish this place had ISOs, it'd make it easier to look at math and TZP

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 09:07:43 AMPhase ends are right in the middle of my work day this game lol. I don't have time to weigh in on much but I'll weigh in briefly on Toby's plan. The one hang up I see is that, while the plan loses value after N1, if the Sacrificial Lamb claims in the next sixty mins, won't the wolves just switch their target to the Lamb? There might not be enough time left for the actual Chosen One to see and claim, in which case we lose the lamb without the lamb being any wiser about who to revive down the road.

To Ice Climbers' point, the lamb dying in this way would confirm their role, but it's unlikely that the lamb would have been counterclaimed anyway, so that's a limited upside.

This is like TZP's only post for a significant portion if the game? It's meh

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 01, 2023, 03:53:45 PMAll right, I should be able to discuss things more substantively going forward.

I disagree with Oricorio that Waluigi is unlikely to post again. I think the wolves will probably try to keep every tool in their disposal alive for as long as possible even if most people aren't believing them. I'd expect there to be a pitch of that false seering as a reaction test, or even as an honest error.

Want to hear more from Math, Xiao, and N1P2 (I don't think calling you "Ice Climbers" will stick haha) on the events of the day so far. As the players who have been the quietest, they are the ones who are most likely to be indicted by a "wolf reading sloppily" explanation* of an impossible seering—and I do not want to get shivved by not paying attention to quiet players for two games in a row.

(*if that is indeed the explanation we're opting for. Oricorio seems to think it's plausible that it's a wolf being conservative and a wolf being impulsive, which is definitely reasonable, but I think it's less likely than the whole team just not carefully reading)

Also, not Sacrificial Lamb.

"Want to hear more from x" is not a read. Otherwise, lukewarm comments on some of my stances.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 02, 2023, 12:02:56 PMVoting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

Suddenly goes all in on a case on Specs, this seemingly came from nowhere. It feels kind of lukewarm in hindsight

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 03, 2023, 08:44:22 AM^^ I feel like I should say something about this. For the last couple of games people have been talking about me like my tone has changed significantly, like I don't talk much now and when I do I'm just all business. I really don't feel like my tone has changed all that much from the way I normally play, but if it has and I'm not aware of it, it's probably because of a new job I've started. When the game revival started earlier this summer I had quite a bit of free time in front of a computer that I just don't have the luxury of now. Still really enjoy playing with you all, it's more just that my bandwidth is fuller than it was, and I'm not able to be mulling things over as actively as I was a couple of months ago.

Anyway, I am rolling up to church now and almost certainly won't be able to tag in before phase end. My leans right now are wolf on Specs, human on BDS, neutral on Oricorio and Toby, completely unsure on Math and Xiao, and I'll be happy to give my reasons for those later on. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Specs for reasons stated earlier, but I also wouldn't be unhappy to see Math/Xiao lynched, as I feel like most people don't have much of a read on them yet, and Specs talks enough that I could feel more conclusively about him one way or another based on further developments.

TZP out

First paragraph is fluff, second hedges on everyone except BDS and Specs

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 08:17:54 AMRereading the end of D1 I'm honestly surprised and a little concerned at how much momentum that Specs lynch picked up toward the end. When Specs changed his vote to Math, that made it 3 on Math to 2 on him (and 1 on Xiao from N1P2). N1P2 then flipped to Specs to tie it up 3-3, and then Toby pushed the lynch onto Specs in the last half hour of the phase. As a human, I was already somewhat ambivalent about whether I wanted to lynch Specs or a less active player, and I think that most human players would feel the same, so I could interpret Toby's last-minute vote switch as a no-other-choice protection move for Math as a wolf partner. If Specs wasn't a wolf, I'd say this suggests itself to me as the most likely possibility.

N1P2, it's very likely that you're going to die tonight--please don't go gently! If you have info on the side from the alts or especially the Chosen One, please share it before you die so that that player doesn't have to expose himself.

Was the main pusher of Specs, but now that Specs has died seems to have buyer's remorse and is suspecting people on the Specs wagon.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 07:52:58 PMVoting someone who is seered green is... a choice. Still think threalmathguy is a good option, and if not him then TZP. Lynching me would ruin my perfectly good PoE

In a game with a master wolf and redirection (that we have no way of knowing triggered) there's only so much we can trust seerings even when we do know the true human seer.

As someone who voted Math yesterday I fully understand the reasons why he would make a good lynch, but that again plays into the wolves' mindgames—did they release results of a Math seering (even after their slip-up) to try and direct us toward him, or away from him? As of right now I'm personally inclined to believe they deliberately tried to paint a target on him or just picked another random name to throw out.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 05, 2023, 05:12:13 PMI find myself profoundly offended that I am not included in the pool of perfect grammar users!

In all seriousness, I'm also leaning toward an Oricorio vote right now and away from the Toby/Math pairing that I was considering during N2. My thinking on Oricorio is that he has been the one to point out and condemn the TWG Waluigi slip most strongly. After it happened, I've been looking closely for people to act embarrassed by or dismissive toward it, and Oricorio is the player who's done this far and away the most.

To me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

And for the second phase in a row, they spend their big effort post in an attempt to get a person lynched. This whole cycle of "slank then case then buyer's remorse" seems very opportunistic and preplanned. I'll have to look at the last game to see if it diverges with their past town behavior

TZP looked a bit more open and more willing to consider setup/alternate options? Here it looks like they're going through the motions. Time to look at math

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 08:06:23 PMAnd for the second phase in a row, they spend their big effort post in an attempt to get a person lynched. This whole cycle of "slank then case then buyer's remorse" seems very opportunistic and preplanned. I'll have to look at the last game to see if it diverges with their past town behavior

TZP was a wolf in both TWG CXIV (Nothing Special) and TWG CXV (Just a Numbers' Game). In those games (especially the one I hosted) he seemed to be a lot more scheming behind the scenes, knowing when to fall back and let things ride, and press forward and take charge.

He mentioned having some PMs with N1P2, and I'm curious to see those, as I haven't seen them at all. If N1P2 would release them (as long as they don't contain sensitive info), I think that would be helpful.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 08:09:50 PMTWG CXV (Just a Numbers' Game)

look at me misremembering the name of my own game

that apostrophe should not be there :P

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 12:58:21 AMHad a lot to catch up on. My thoughts:

I do believe Waluigi wolf slipped. I'm not reading too hard into BDS's call out following.

I like Toby's plan of chosen one claiming to lamb, if no one counterclaims then I believe N1P2's claim will be fairly credible (I am not lamb)

I agree with reviving THC, it'll help to have a confirmed human for voting as early as possible

Their first real post and it's three of the most lukewarm takes imaginable.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 10:02:43 PMSuspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Suspicion on Specs and Xiao, the latter of which is almost certainly town, though again these are lukewarm takes. Town leans besides Toby are hedgy.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 08:14:26 PMSuspicion on Specs and Xiao, the latter of which is almost certainly town, though again these are lukewarm takes. Town leans besides Toby are hedgy.

Also seems to largely be sheeping Toby in terms of reads.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 07:25:06 PMAhh so the real THC didn't claim anything, that makes more sense.

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

Not confirmed for all obviously

Human core hasn't really changed from last readslist.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 05, 2023, 07:20:29 PMSince the last day cycle, my top two sus suspects have gone down. I believe Xiao is the more likely human of Xiao and Specs given the nature of their deaths (wolf vs lynch). I think Specs is a likely Waluigi, as well as Oricorio due to reaction of the first seering and the reasons TZP mentioned, and I still think it is possible they are wolves together. It's also probably easier to bash Waluigi for messing up if it's yourself.

I still want to believe in Toby and THC, but their reactions to my human reads were strange, THC more so than Toby. I read it more as a "think this through more" than anything too wolfy, but THC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

I'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout. I think BDS and Toby/TZP probably go opposite ways and right now I'm leaning town on Toby/TZP. This isn't as strong of a theory in my mind though.

So for votes I'm between Oricorio, BDS and THC

Does change the perspective on THC, this and the BDS suspicion are probably the first contentious takes he's posted all game. Interesting that he chooses to keep the PoE open for now rather than immediately going for the easy mislynch here.

Anyway, most of math's posts are lukewarm enough that I can see them coming from either a lazy townie or a wolf that wants to blend in. Their last post diverges from that, though, so I'm interested in seeing where that leads. For now, I guess I'd be more comfortable voting TheZeldaPianist275

The main reason why I don't believe Specs is a wolf is because they don't fit comfortably with any of my PoE of math/TZP/Toby. If we're dealing with a deepwolf like BDS, though, they may be worth considering.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 08:23:22 PMThe main reason why I don't believe Specs is a wolf is because they don't fit comfortably with any of my PoE of math/TZP/Toby. If we're dealing with a deepwolf like BDS, though, they may be worth considering.

I just hope one of those three is the seer to make this easier on us

I should probably go over Toby at some point. For now, I'll start with THC since they have considerably less posts. Also, a multiquote feature would be nice (copypasting everything is too annoying on mobile to be worth the effort).

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 05, 2023, 12:54:35 AMJust checking in to say I'm aware I've been revived and will give more insight once I'm home from work.
That is absolutely something I would do. And have done in a previous game, sort of. Just without the revive part. Also, I can confirm that I never claimed to be either TWG account to N1P2. I haven't even DMed anyone this game, yet.

Questioning another player's reason for townreading you is often considered towny behavior, and this tell has been reliable for me in the past.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 05, 2023, 06:04:08 AMSuspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

Has quite a wide PoE (granted, it aligns with mine aside from myself obviously). Most of the reads are hedgy, though seems to mindmeld with my thoughts on math (although that was before math made his more bold post).

Yeah, reading over THC's posts they have the most naturally towny posts of anyone here. I think we can disregard any convoluted scenarios of wolves shooting themselves for now.

Since Toby has way more posts than math, TZP, or THC I'll probably only go over the highlights.

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 04:36:58 AMSomething we could consider is the sacrificial lamb claiming and then asking the chosen one to claim to them. The sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Because the sacraficial lamb can still use their power even when dead Im not seeing much of a down side to this. It just means they're guaranteed to be wolfed next but someone has to be wolfed, and in exchange we have an untouchable human seer for the rest of the game.

His plan for D1. The problem with outing the SL that early is that they essentially are removed from the PoE, so it's very helpful to have them around later in the game. Still, given the wolves didn't kill N1P I'm not sure what they're doing anymore.

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 08:13:46 AMAnd lynching neither the chosen one or the sacraficial lamb is harmful as both their powers can be used while dead

??? What does this even mean?

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 09:53:06 AMWhat do you mean? It only asks the sacraficial lamb to claim which would lead to us finding the chosen one. If there is a chosen one counter claim then we find a wolf in exchange for our seer.

If the sacraficial lamb is counter claimed we lose a confirmed human in exchange for a wolf

If both are counter claimed we literally win the game because we are able to lynch 2 wolves in 4 lynches

It seems this is dependent on CCs from the wolves in order to be fruitful, something that clearly did not happen in the case of the SL and wolves seemed to chicken out in terms of CCing the seer

Quote from: Toby on December 01, 2023, 10:38:46 AMEither waluigi is meme ing or that's THC's Death post waaa lol

Seems to push the idea that THC is Waluigi pretty early on. If the wolves killed THC so they could pretend Waluigi was THC, then this could be evidence of collusion (and them trying to frame THC), but it could easily be a coincidence

Quote from: Toby on December 02, 2023, 04:23:09 AMI think everyone has posted since n1p2 claimed sacrificial lamb so unless THC was the lamb which I doubt then we have our lamb.

I suggest everyone pm n1p2 if their role just to help them find the Chosen One and they can see if anyone is going to counter claim

Has been proactive on this end, even if it was pretty likely that someone would come up with this idea eventually

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 05:16:05 AMThinking along the lines of players who have been quiet, TZP also hasn't posted much this game. Xiao actually has more posts. But doing a comparison TZP's posts are more content filled. TZP's tone this game also seems similar to his previous game where he was human, but still a change in tone from his games before that which is probably just non alignment indicative.

I'll be interested to see what Xiaos suspicion list looks like and if we would be likely to get more content from him in the game

Interestingly calls out TZP as also being quiet, something I noticed when I went through their ISO. Seems to prefer to flip Xiao though

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 07:51:17 AMCouple hours left in phase

I'm leaning Xiao for lack of activity, and he said he'd provide a suspicion list but hasn't - although poet did this last game and was human so it might actually be a human tell rather than wolf

Or honestly maybe Specs as I've found just some of his posts to be slightly off, and he's been caught out on 2 mistakes against TZP and Math - has he been trying to grasp at straws to get ammunition against his irl friends who can read him well? I would like to hear more from TZP and math against Specs as they know him best but I think it's especially interesting they both chose to vote their irl friend day 1 and I don't think you'd do that unless you really thought they were a wolf. I don't see a wolf leading a lynch against their irl friend day 1 - seems nasty lol !

I did think I would have ended this phase voting math purely based on activity, but although he hasn't posted a lot it's not been as low as activity as previous games. I'm feeling the activity this game is actually okay, with Xiao maybe being the only exception due to his posts not having much content to them as of now.

TZP has also had low activity but his posts have been content heavy which does give us something to read. And I think it's very brave to start the first accusation of the game going against your irl friend, which is majorly risky that I don't think I see a wolf doing

Still leaning Xiao. Specs suspicion has been building, but it seems to be based more on the reads of Specs's "IRL friends". Not sure why he's giving math a pass here, his ISO was borderline empty at that point

Quote from: Toby on December 03, 2023, 09:34:59 AMMy gut is leaning town on math and I was leaning between specs and Xiao and given the vote count I'll put it on Specs

I think his 2 mistakes was a slip where he was trying to get further ammunition to make cases against math and TZP and was hoping to not be called out on it. I think his interaction with Waluigi was a bit odd and he had resistance to my plan which was going to help us confirm the human seer.

Also according to TZP he was showing a different tone to my plan in the topic compared to PM's which I find strange. As if he was afraid to show his true opinion in topic or trying to sway people behind the scenes.

Finally votes Specs. I mean, I guess it would be weird for a wolf to vote there when there were already (if my count is correct) three votes on that wagon, and it's not like bussing cred could be a thing with no flips.

I think I've gone in deep enough with Toby. I think he's most likely town, even if there are a few avenues of tinfoil I could pursue, and thus the least suspicious of my PoE. Last will be going through BDS (I don't need to go through N1P, being the un-CC'd SL is good enough for me)

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 11:57:10 AMhey wait a minute the aloof seer seers blue players as green

I was also going to look through only the "highlights" as with Toby, but surprisingly none of BDS's posts stood out to me 'til this obvious one. I mean, he disagreed with Toby's plan, which I guess is something. Nevertheless, this post has already been discussed to death.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:26:08 PMninja'd

I tend to agree. Maaaaaybe also TZP, but I feel like TZP is more likely to have picked up on the fact that the human seer seers blue targets as green.

Now that N1P is obvious town, has BDS pursued the TZP suspicion?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 02:23:55 PMThere's a chance Waluigi was just doing a reaction test to see who picked up on the fact that a blue seering is impossible, but I highly doubt that.

Interested to see what TWG Luigi has to say. They... certainly have a lot more credibility at this point :P

Interestingly, this was the excuse that Waluigi later went with.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 09:24:57 PMInterestingly, this was the excuse that Waluigi later went with.

I'm pretty sure I also mentioned the possibility that THC could be Waluigi so, uh... looks like the wolves really ran with my ideas.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 09:57:11 AMIf I'm not the miller, it's incredibly likely that I was seered.
I feel conflicted. Personally, I'd say just wait for N1P2 to be wolfed which would clear up the whole thing (if N1P2 is the Sacrificial Lamb then he can't be revived of course). But then it brings up the question of who, if anyone, we should revive. If THC is the Sacrificial Lamb then he should revive whoever is wolfed N2 (if it's not N1P2), or N3 if N1P2 is wolfed. If N1P2 is indeed the Sacrificial Lamb then he should probably revive whoever is wolfed N3 (if anyone sees any potential problem with that, it'd be great to know ahead of time).

Phase ends in approximately 24 hours?

Insistence that he would be seered, another thing that has been discussed to death. While some would call this "LAMIST", I'm not exactly a big fan of that "tell"

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 12:59:20 PMSuspicion List Mk. 1

S U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- XiaoMigros: Hasn't been posting much at all, even for Xiao standards. Paranoid speculation time: Xiao saw my comment last game about me developing a "Human Xiao Radar" and has been avoiding posting on the off-chance the opposite is also true. A player I could conceivably see being on a wolf team that made the Waluigi slip.
- TheZeldaPianist275: I think TZP is also in the zone of players who, if on the wolf team, could have conceivably led to the Waluigi slip—if not TZP himself, it's possible that TZP didn't pick on the fact that the human seer seers blue players as green and subsequently failed to inform his partner of this fact as well.
- threalmathguy: Hasn't posted enough to get a good lean on yet (but solely based on the content of those posts it's still fairly neutral). Based on the timing of his posts (one post early in the game, then no more until fairly recently) it's possible that either he made the Waluigi slip (made posts as Waluigi then deliberately dipped out to avoid suspicion), or wasn't around to prevent his partner from making the Waluigi slip.
- SpecsFlyer17: I originally had Specs in the category below (imo, his posts have been fairly consistent with his recent human behavior, especially last game), but given the recent posts by TZP and N1P2 I feel like he should be under more scrutiny. In his defense, the issues those two brought up could be mostly down to awkward wording, which feels like something Specs has caught suspicion for in past games as well. Also in his defense, Specs pointed out very early that he thought it was possible TWG Waluigi was the wolf due to proximity of Waluigi's first post to the wolfing, which I really don't feel would be something that would be in wolf Specs' interest to say out loud.

E V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

D E A D Z O N E —
- ThatHiddenCharacter: He is, indeed, dead.

Cool Kids Club —
- Nana1Popo2: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.
- BlackDragonSlayer: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.

Readslist. I find it interesting that some players *cough*math*cough* were supposedly suspicious of Specs for disagreeing with Toby's plan but had nary a word to say about BDS doing the same thing. Has me as the highest read aside from the un-CC'd SL, and I'm not sure I exactly like it because I don't know what playing differently than I did as an ITP says about my alignment. There's surprisingly little hedging in the "LESSSUSZONE" section, it feels like he is more considering who could've made the slip rather than who independently looks towny/wolfy. Surprisingly there's more hedging on the Toby read, which seems to counter his reason for reading the others. Overall, very weird post for a reads list.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 09:19:50 PMChanging my vote to Xiao for now just in case I'm not online later.

Votes Xiao. Though that would make the Xiao kill weird if BDS was a wolf, as I don't think wolf!BDS would kill someone that they thought was an easy mislynch

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 03, 2023, 07:11:48 AMI'm gonna be headed out (unlikely to return before phase end) so I'm changing my vote to threalmathguy (unfortunately the vote is still tied after my vote change). Xiao has posted a bit more since I made my vote and honestly I wanna hear more before I'm fully convinced to lynch Xiao. My main reason to want to lynch Xiao is I thought Xiao was deliberately being quiet, but if continues to change I might get less suspicious of Xiao.
you ok there bub

Votes math, followed by SpecsFlyer shortly afterwards — if there was a wolf rush, this is it. Wasn't enough to save Specs though

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 04, 2023, 10:08:28 AMI was the one in contact with N1P2 all this time, but I guess the measures we took to ensure the release of info aren't necessary now, for... some reason.

wolves wyd

This is the part that makes w!BDS worlds interesting, to say the least. Although if the wolves knew everything, that would explain the Xiao kill as a wrench in the plan, and why N1P was left alive... but you'd think Waluigi would've come up with something better if the wolves had all this information. I guess it's a world worth considering but it doesn't seem particularly likely.

Eh. BDS's ISO does not look as impressive as I expected and if anything Toby might actually look better. Still, if wolves are really directing town's PRs, that seems like a situation that's self-resolving,but then again leaving the wolves in that position is also really dangerous.

Anyway, the players from least to most suspicious in my estimation:

Oricorio
N1P
THC
Toby
BDS
math
TZP

I still think a PoE of Toby/math/TZP, with pertinence given to the latter two, is mostly good but I'm not willing to 100% discount the possibility of BDS being a wolf. The Waluigi callout looks good, but it's not clearing by any means.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 12:46:23 PMI like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439361#msg439361) (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

At work, so only enough time to respond to this. I would make sure I knew how the seer role works before making any posts like that. I may be a wildcard, but I also always triple-check things before I do anything. Both in-game and irl.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 05, 2023, 10:33:31 PMAt work, so only enough time to respond to this. I would make sure I knew how the seer role works before making any posts like that. I may be a wildcard, but I also always triple-check things before I do anything. Both in-game and irl.

Triple checking before you do anything?
That didn't seem like the thought process of someone who, in a previous game, as a human false counter claimed the Seer role with a red seering on another human player! Lol

 This is a quick heads up that we'll be doing some maintenance soon. If anyone is in the middle of typing something, make sure you've got a copy (or finish up) so you don't lose your WIP.

Upgrades finished, post away.

So I'm trying to look within Oricorio/TZP/Math today as I want to trust at least today that N1P2 hasn't let BDS pull the wool over their eyes this whole time. And if there was any doubts on BDS then N1P2 would have spotted it

I'm also doing this on my phone as I'm away from home at moment so it's not the best formatted and putting in quotes is awkward so I've just spoke generally based on re reading

Oricorio

Oricorio you're putting a lot of emphasis on the POE being me/math/TZP - but that's your POE. And you would be included in mine as would you be in everyone else's.

What does stick out to me is how hard you were calling everything Waluigi was doing mistakes when I'm starting to question whether anything they did was a mistake at this point, it seems too obvious to claim they had a blue result when 1) human seer can't see blue and 2) BDS had also highlighted it.

I think if the blue steering was a blunder then likely one of the wolves must have been chaotic enough to run away with their own plan without discussing it with the other. I could see Oricorio being bitter and maybe trying to distance himself from Waluigi after making an obvious mistake.

The Waluigi claiming that they were THC - was this a mistake ? Or a temporary ruse/distraction? It was likely THC would be revived so their claim would be called bluff eventually - but who else would they counterclaim as? We largely all immediately saw Waluigi as suspicious so if they claimed to be a living player that could be a death sentence. And the counter claim could temporarily hold off the alliance. Although it was inevitable that THC would be revived and the alliance would form anyway. Oricorio critiquing this move could be a way of trying to discredit what the alliance wolves are doing and separate himself from that. Especially since I'm not seeing the Waluigi claiming to be THC as big of a mistake as has been said.

I also think Oricorio has intentionally tried to play more reserved this game to try slip by. There was a comment before that he's maybe playing more considerate for NSM TWG by being less aggressive but I don't see that at all. If it was a quieter play style because of consideration I'd expect him to also be considerate in his word choice and avoid mafia specific terms.

I also think the Waluigi messages have been trying to mimic other posting styles but I don't see a trace of Oricorio there. I think if someone was trying to mimic Oricorio they would try stick in a mafia term like 'scum' but there isn't. I think this is another way Waluigi and Oricorio are trying to distance from eachother.

Human points for Oricorio would be how deep he's dived in lately to everyone's posts, but I can't help to feel he's only doing it since he's now being looked at. He also seems to be leaning strong town on me which I think is interesting given I'm in the pool of consideration for today - I would think he would have liked to keep everyone as an option since he's also within pool of consideration

TZP

TZP has been largely quiet this game which is a little alarming. However I want to believe this isn't a play style choice as from the start of this game we have been looking closely at quieter players so to play quiet on purpose would be putting a target on his back.

Notable from TZP is going head on to lynch Specs, in which math guy followed suits. The obvious teaming against Specs there would separate them as a wolf pairing for me as it would be too obvious. I also think going guns ho early doors is a big risk for a wolf, and math guy backing him up on it leads me to believe it was a legitimate push.

TZP then thought it was odd how much traction the Specs lynch gained having being the one who started it. I do find this odd but I'm also not sure why he would question his own lynch push as a wolf. If he'd just falsely accused his irl friend and successfully lynched him I'm not sure if he'd want to draw further attention to it, or to the fact he wasn't all that confident in it.

TZP has also been PMing N1P2 on the side and been open about it. I'm not sure if this could be a way of trying to infiltrate the alliance and get information out ? If it was I'm not sure if he'd be so open about it in topic

N1P2 also hasn't seemed to wolf read TZP yet so I'm going to hold off on going in that direction

math guy

Math guy as well has been very quiet which has been disappointing given I swayed Specs over him, thinking his activity may pick up and we'd have more to read.

I'm looking back at Lantern Holders and comparing his game here to that. Notably in Lantern Holders he started the game offering good insights and then activity dwindled as the game went on and he may start to be subjected. There's been a somewhat similar approach this game with him giving some observations, opinion on the plan I setup, offering a suspicion list day 1,  but there haven't been much posts since.

Notably today from him he's being reading me strongly human fast that I can't help but shake as being odd?? Wolves need to remember to have a balance of reading players both wolves and human as to not look sus for reading everyone as wolves, so I'm not sure if he's just grabbed at an opportunity to read me as human ?? I'm not sure it feels unnatural how strong he was so sudden.

I also think math guy is likely to have not noticed the human seers players blue just from being newish to TWG so maybe not picking up on all the details. TZP has also given him big credit on being smart so it's likely within his remit to forge some PMs.

I think for pairing mathguy/Specs doesn't make sense given math guys follow up vote to Specs. If I wanted to cut my losses on Specs being a wolf I would vote math. But because I think Spec's slips were wolf slips I'd like to remain confident that we should be looking for Spec' partner.

_______

For a suspicion list in order I'd go with

Wolf
Oricario
Math
TZP
BDS
THC
N1P2
Toby
Human

With swaying between math or Oricorio for the top spot

That's how I'm feeling at the moment not wanting to consider BDS or THC too hard at the moment

I'm going to place my vote on Oricorio for now but I couldn't be swayed either way

I just remembered Oricorio literally has a green steering !

I mean could still be master wolf or even redirection so it's possible that Oricorio isn't even green and or the seer got redirected to a green player

It's annoying there aren't any cardflips so we knew if Specs was red or green at least to try match up the pair

Hello Deku! Good to see you.

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 05:42:09 PM2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess

:C

Quote from: Oricorio on December 05, 2023, 07:58:22 PMThis is like TZP's only post for a significant portion if the game? It's meh

>:C

Oricorio, it's all good and fine to say that if you were intentionally trying to KO Waluigi's credibility you would have done it yourself, but that doesn't seem to me to be materially better (from wolf!Oricorio's perspective) than allowing another player to attract attention by noticing it and then melting into the crowdshaming, and it also totally could have been a simple mistake. I think that's more likely and is a potential explanation for your stridency in speaking out against it.

As far as who's on deck next if you are lynched, I'd say Toby, then Math. But I don't think you can get away with accusing me of having buyer's remorse against Specs. That is an extremely selective reading of my posts--I still think there's a good chance he's a wolf, your avoidance of him on D1 is one of the things that made me consider you as an option in the first place, and while I flirted with the idea of a Toby/Math pairing, the results of N2 make me think that's not a live possibility any more (though I think either one could possibly be a wolf). If I vote you now there's only one more to insta I believe, so I'll hold off, but I fail to see a better option right now.

Also Oricorio can you remind me what ISO and PoE and lamist refer to?

Also also damn. This forum layout is going to take a long time to get used to. I got the "new replies, review your post" notification but couldn't see the replies without opening a new tab.

Alright friends i have a minute to type here.

There are reasons i havent been sus on BDS; they have offered valuable insight. We have discussed and tbh if they are the wolf they deserve this one because im getting no readings off of it hahaha.
Aside from that, i did a huge deep dive and with the knowledge i have in pms and such, it would take just so much for them to be wolf. Imo at least, this is my first TWG in a year or so here in NSM Land.

Ori is still top sus, and the enormous amount of posting might be trying to all of a sudden cover tracks? Its a lot lol.

Toby is still close. But it seems most others are also getting sus vibes.

TZP is after; some days are heavy sus, others are heavy town vibes... lol. Of all games for town to have a lot of trust in me. Im doin ma best x)

Math is uhhhh here. Still quiet.

THC is back, busy still... and quiet.

I'll be around till the end of phase, though I don't have much more to say regarding my vote.

I won't insta Oricorio either, though I'd be ok with it.

I'll throw you a bone though

BDS

Probably a throwaway vote but I want to see what happens toward the end

Quote from: Toby on December 06, 2023, 07:52:18 AMI just remembered Oricorio literally has a green steering !

I mean could still be master wolf or even redirection so it's possible that Oricorio isn't even green and or the seer got redirected to a green player

It's annoying there aren't any cardflips so we knew if Specs was red or green at least to try match up the pair

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 06, 2023, 09:26:08 AMI'll be around till the end of phase, though I don't have much more to say regarding my vote.

I won't insta Oricorio either, though I'd be ok with it.

I'll throw you a bone though

BDS

Probably a throwaway vote but I want to see what happens toward the end

These are two bizarro posts back-to-back. Toby remembers that Oricorio has a green seering on him but intentionally interprets it in the least charitable way possible. Math drops in and votes for the player most trusted by the alliance leader despite not clearly preferring him over THC and Oricorio, the other players he's claimed to suspect. That feels like an artificial push toward Oricorio, and an artificial push away from Oricorio. Why? 15 mins left in phase, if you guys are here I'd like to hear something about this.

Safety on THC

Well, I'm screwed. It seems everyone has confbiased me as scum, which means there's little I could do anyway. It doesn't seem like town has a clear plan after my death, which isn't good. Also not happy about being a standard earlygame mislynch here, it seems like people need to be more charitable to my playstyle. Tried to put in the effort I should have been putting in all game, didn't work. Now I just woke up and there's little I can do

Also I prefer the old layout

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 06, 2023, 08:27:05 AMHello Deku! Good to see you.
:C>:C

Oricorio, it's all good and fine to say that if you were intentionally trying to KO Waluigi's credibility you would have done it yourself, but that doesn't seem to me to be materially better (from wolf!Oricorio's perspective) than allowing another player to attract attention by noticing it and then melting into the crowdshaming, and it also totally could have been a simple mistake. I think that's more likely and is a potential explanation for your stridency in speaking out against it.

As far as who's on deck next if you are lynched, I'd say Toby, then Math. But I don't think you can get away with accusing me of having buyer's remorse against Specs. That is an extremely selective reading of my posts--I still think there's a good chance he's a wolf, your avoidance of him on D1 is one of the things that made me consider you as an option in the first place, and while I flirted with the idea of a Toby/Math pairing, the results of N2 make me think that's not a live possibility any more (though I think either one could possibly be a wolf). If I vote you now there's only one more to insta I believe, so I'll hold off, but I fail to see a better option right now.

Also Oricorio can you remind me what ISO and PoE and lamist refer to?

Also also damn. This forum layout is going to take a long time to get used to. I got the "new replies, review your post" notification but couldn't see the replies without opening a new tab.

ISO: A list of all a player's posts in isloation
PoE: Process of elimination, preferably you want this down to "number of wolves + number of available mislynches" (3 in this game, but will become 2 after my death)
LAMIST: "Look At Me I'm So Town"

Well, at least the idea of Specs/me being a wolfteam is about to be debunked.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 06, 2023, 09:47:01 AMThese are two bizarro posts back-to-back. Toby remembers that Oricorio has a green seering on him but intentionally interprets it in the least charitable way possible. Math drops in and votes for the player most trusted by the alliance leader despite not clearly preferring him over THC and Oricorio, the other players he's claimed to suspect. That feels like an artificial push toward Oricorio, and an artificial push away from Oricorio. Why? 15 mins left in phase, if you guys are here I'd like to hear something about this.

Of the three I named, THC is the least likely vote for me because my uncertainty there lies in wilder theories like self wolf. So it's between Oricorio and BDS. Oricorio at least has a green seering. Of course, we can't keep ignoring green readings but it's at least some info to go off of

Would be better to lynch someone who wasn't seered, that way we would have a larger percentage of living players seered which is helpful for considering what pairings are possible, but what do I know

There is likely at least one wolf on my wagon, but that should go without saying

And I'm dead. Sorry town for not being able to pull through

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Day 2 is over. Oricorio was lynched.

It's now night 3. Night 3 ends december 7th 10:00AM PST/11:00AM MST/12:00PM CST/1:00PM EST/6:00PM GMT/7:00PM CET. Update will be a couple hours late, as I will be at an event at that time.

Well, now we have to figure out if one of Oricorio/Specs were a wolf, or neither of them were.

I hope tonight's seering will be... informative. Just gotta avoid the redirection for one more night (if it hasn't happened already).

Judging from Oricorio's last posts I'm wondering if he was human after all, it seemed very genuine

Quote from: Oricorio on December 06, 2023, 10:00:13 AMAnd I'm dead. Sorry town for not being able to pull through

This doesn't sound genuine to me, Luigi.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 06, 2023, 08:28:22 AMTHC is back, busy still... and quiet.

I won't deny that, but you have to admit I've been more active than the past two games. Plus, I'm on vacation now, so plenty more time for this stuff.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:19:38 AMWell, now we have to figure out if one of Oricorio/Specs were a wolf, or neither of them were.

I feel that Specs was likely a wolf. As much as I understand the argument that the wolves could be using how the messages are typed to try and frame people, I just find it very unlikely. The only person I could see doing that is you, and only because you're the one who brought attention to it by asking me who I thought it was based off of text. Also, I can't speak for anyone else, but I couldn't consciously put a space before a question mark. It would drive me to insanity.

Who do you think Specs' most likely partner would be? Not sure if you answered that last time I asked.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 02:28:40 PMWho do you think Specs' most likely partner would be? Not sure if you answered that last time I asked.

I previously said math, but:

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 06, 2023, 01:51:42 PMAlso, I can't speak for anyone else, but I couldn't consciously put a space before a question mark. It would drive me to insanity.

I really don't see anyone doing this intentionally to frame Toby. Like, not only is it not consistent enough to be a thing to copy, but I honestly didn't even notice he does it until it was pointed out. I just have a hard time believing the wolves would have done it on purpose to frame Toby. And since Toby's the only one who does that naturally in this game, that's looking like a very viable option to me. It's a shame because I actually wasn't super suspicious of Toby before that point, which I usually am.

Why is this conversation feeling orchestrated

Quote from: Toby on December 06, 2023, 03:50:11 PMWhy is this conversation feeling orchestrated

Because this is a musical comedy community

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 06, 2023, 04:55:03 PMBecause this is a musical comedy community

wrap it up everybody quote of the game right here :D

Yes, seering Math tonight as he's the player I'm most hesitant about. Pretty sure they've either used their redirection already or haven't caught on yet so we'll see if their green "seering" was authentic or just a cover. I feel we've done a pretty good job at throwing them off the scent, if they haven't already seered me (which, again, feel like they definitely would have by now). Be back in the morning, likely after phase end.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:57:00 PMYes, seering Math tonight as he's the player I'm most hesitant about. Pretty sure they've either used their redirection already or haven't caught on yet so we'll see if their green "seering" was authentic or just a cover. I feel we've done a pretty good job at throwing them off the scent, if they haven't already seered me (which, again, feel like they definitely would have by now). Be back in the morning, likely after phase end.

New forum layout be hitting

Anyway, I'm inclined to agree with everyone except Luigi, that if we've hit a wolf already, it's more likely to be Specs than Oricorio. I am still not sure what to make of the Math and Toby posts I called out right before day's end—Math's explanation doesn't make a ton of sense to me (there is a Master Wolf!) and Toby didn't respond at all. N1P2, same story as last night—you're probably going to be hit, so please leave us with something to go off of.

I wont be back until hopefully right before phase change, but i cant get a read on math.
At least compared to the ever back-and-forth readings of Toby and TZP.
I agree with Specs being a likely candidate for wolf... BDS is low on the list, and with all respect to THC's schedule, they are in the back seat here (interesting?). At least theyve been able to reflect on the actions and likelihoods of the returning TWG members here.

Anyway, good luck, if im gone! If not, i'll do my best to push harder for info.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 07:19:16 AMAnyway, I'm inclined to agree with everyone except Luigi, that if we've hit a wolf already, it's more likely to be Specs than Oricorio.

Wdym you agree with everyone except Luigi? The confirmed CO?..

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:57:00 PMYes, seering Math tonight as he's the player I'm most hesitant about. Pretty sure they've either used their redirection already or haven't caught on yet so we'll see if their green "seering" was authentic or just a cover. I feel we've done a pretty good job at throwing them off the scent, if they haven't already seered me (which, again, feel like they definitely would have by now). Be back in the morning, likely after phase end.

I'm inclined to believe this is a genuine accident and not a roundabout way of fake claiming. That being said, we have to be aware that any seering will be unreliable now

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 07:19:16 AMI am still not sure what to make of the Math and Toby posts I called out right before day's end—Math's explanation doesn't make a ton of sense to me (there is a Master Wolf!) and Toby didn't respond at all.

I guess what you're stuck on is thinking I cleared Oricorio for being green. What I tried to explain and maybe didn't do very well is that we shouldn't clear people for being green, but I wanted the info on alive players. Given we didn't know about the CO slip, it would've made our endgame easier.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 07, 2023, 07:27:32 AMWdym you agree with everyone except Luigi? The confirmed CO?..

Even though he's confirmed human, it doesn't make him more correct when dealing with matters of opinion, which TZP was referring to here

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 07, 2023, 07:27:32 AMWdym you agree with everyone except Luigi? The confirmed CO?..

Quote from: TWG Luigi on December 06, 2023, 11:23:14 AMThis doesn't sound genuine to me, Luigi.

This is the post to which I was referring. It sounds like Luigi thinks that Oricorio's lynch tantrum wasn't entirely genuine, and I disagree with this--I think Specs' posts on the way out the door are easier to fake than Oricorio's were. He just sounds genuinely pissed.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 07, 2023, 08:01:30 AMI guess what you're stuck on is thinking I cleared Oricorio for being green. What I tried to explain and maybe didn't do very well is that we shouldn't clear people for being green, but I wanted the info on alive players. Given we didn't know about the CO slip, it would've made our endgame easier.

I'm still not following Math. What info on alive players were you looking to gain by voting BDS?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 08:15:44 AMI'm still not following Math. What info on alive players were you looking to gain by voting BDS?

I'm saying if we'd kept Oricorio in we'd have another green reading on an alive player. No additional info was being gained, but having tangible info on a player who's alive helps in the voting process

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 06, 2023, 09:47:01 AMThese are two bizarro posts back-to-back. Toby remembers that Oricorio has a green seering on him but intentionally interprets it in the least charitable way possible. Math drops in and votes for the player most trusted by the alliance leader despite not clearly preferring him over THC and Oricorio, the other players he's claimed to suspect. That feels like an artificial push toward Oricorio, and an artificial push away from Oricorio. Why? 15 mins left in phase, if you guys are here I'd like to hear something about this.

Safety on THC

I didn't think I needed to respond to this but since you raised it I will

I also didn't want to respond to it until day as I didn't want to reveal anything to the wolves

but for me it felt between Oricorio or math guy out of Oricorio/Math/TZP. And with the alliance voting Oricorio and basically not even looking at math guy day 2, I felt they must know something I don't in regards to why Oricorio over math - despite Oricorio even having a green seering. Because of the wolves having a seer, and a redirection to help them figure out the Chosen One, as well as having a redirection and master wolf to appear green, it was still likely Oricorio could be a wolf, be that master wolf or red wolf.

TZP had been obvious about PMing N1P2 and so has BDS which I think if they were the CO they wouldn't be vocal about it. Math on the other hand has stayed quiet so I figured it's a likely possibility math is the CO and didn't want to vote that way when N1P2 went Oricorio.

I'm thinking that since we are on day 3 and it could be lynch or lose is it worth revealing the Chosen One to narrow down our process of elimination? By this point wolves have had 3 seers and 3 redirects to figure out who the Chosen one is so it's likely they have it figured out by now. I feel like to not reveal who the Chosen One is would only keep the other humans in the dark?

me popping into the thread like

Quote from: Toby on December 07, 2023, 10:10:24 AMTZP had been obvious about PMing N1P2 and so has BDS which I think if they were the CO they wouldn't be vocal about it. Math on the other hand has stayed quiet so I figured it's a likely possibility math is the CO and didn't want to vote that way when N1P2 went Oricorio.

I'm thinking that since we are on day 3 and it could be lynch or lose is it worth revealing the Chosen One to narrow down our process of elimination? By this point wolves have had 3 seers and 3 redirects to figure out who the Chosen one is so it's likely they have it figured out by now. I feel like to not reveal who the Chosen One is would only keep the other humans in the dark?

idk, something about this whole section rubs me the wrong way

Not sure if I really like the CO speculation.

what don't you like about it

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 11:08:34 AMme popping into the thread like

why would you die over the confirmed human

Quote from: Toby on December 07, 2023, 11:19:34 AMwhat don't you like about it

there is ZERO reason to be speculating about the CO's identity

ok next time I'll just vote who I think is most sus despite natural instinct telling me that person is most likely to be a confirmed human

it also could be lynch of lose now with the wolves having used 6 abilities to help them find the CO in a 7 human game. I wolves likely know who the CO is after tonight

Quote from: Toby on December 07, 2023, 11:33:58 AMok next time I'll just vote who I think is most sus despite natural instinct telling me that person is most likely to be a confirmed human

If the CO was ever in any actual danger of being lynched their identity would 100% be revealed. Strange you don't think otherwise.

haven't you placed your vote and went to sleep like 6 hours before every day phase. and I have no idea when N1P2 pops in and out but it hasn't been frequent lol

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:57:00 PMYes, seering Math tonight as he's the player I'm most hesitant about. Pretty sure they've either used their redirection already or haven't caught on yet so we'll see if their green "seering" was authentic or just a cover. I feel we've done a pretty good job at throwing them off the scent, if they haven't already seered me (which, again, feel like they definitely would have by now). Be back in the morning, likely after phase end.

Also @Toby the fact the you seem to have missed/deliberately ignored this post (even after both Math and TZP called attention to it) and then proceeded to speculate about the CO's identity strikes me as even more strange, like deliberate avoidance.

The wolfkill is locked in (or at least, it should be unless host stated an actual extension of the phase—Davy merely said the update itself would be late rather than the phase end) but for now that's all I'm gonna say.

why would should I call attention to your obvious reaction test/ploy to sway the wolves from realising math as the CO

I mean thats my opinion on it you don't have to respond to that

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 11:22:47 AMthere is ZERO reason to be speculating about the CO's identity

??? Everyone should at least privately be trying to solve the game, BDS, that's not wolfy at all. Given that he waited until the phase had rolled over, I don't find Toby suspicious for this one. I actually think I agree that the Chosen One should claim; if we are in LyLo we need that confirmed slot to frame discussion around lynch, and not just as an "oh I guess this is off-limits" once it looks like he is going to be lynched.

That said, I'm still leaning toward a Toby lynch today. Unless I have REALLY missed something, there's one wolf between Toby and Math, and I think it's more likely to be Toby than Math at this point, given his compatibility with Specs. Also I understand Math's rationale for wanting to keep a seered player alive now, and it makes more sense to me than Toby's rationale for the post of his that I called into question. "I trusted the alliance" only gets you so far here—N1P2 might well have had a good reason for starting an Oricorio lynch, but Toby is an insightful enough player that relying on that rather than calling your own confirmation bias into question once you remembered the green seering seems less than genuine to me.

N1P2 placed the first vote but I had been calling out Oricorio for the majority of day 2. Oricorio was also my number 1 only solidified by the fact that the alliance also went after him.

I didn't just vote because the alliance went there I think you're forgetting I was looking at him before anyone else was

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 11:45:12 AM??? Everyone should at least privately be trying to solve the game, BDS, that's not wolfy at all. Given that he waited until the phase had rolled over, I don't find Toby suspicious for this one. I actually think I agree that the Chosen One should claim; if we are in LyLo we need that confirmed slot to frame discussion around lynch, and not just as an "oh I guess this is off-limits" once it looks like he is going to be lynched.

I kinda agree with BDS on this here. Asking CO to claim is not suspicious now as it may be necessary, but continued SPECULATION over the CO is weird because nobody needs to figure it out (except wolves); it'll be revealed when it needs to be

I haven't been speculating the entire game to try find the CO. And I've not been digging for information to find the CO.

I merely figured the CO was more likely to be you over Oricorio since the alliance was voting Oricorio

Is we getting a phase update

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Night 3 is over. Nana1Popo2 was wolfed.

It's now day 3. Day 3 ends december 9th 1:45PM PST/2:45PM MST/3:45PM CST/4:45PM EST/9:45PM GMT/10:45PM CET.

TWC Post

I'm giving Toby and TZP a warning for attempted death posting.

No warning for BDS and math yet, but both of you are on thin ice with your posts.

I know I'm mainly to blame for being unable to give the phase update when the phase ends, but most of you should be experienced enough to know not to share game-relevant information when you cannot be sure if you are still alive at that point in the game.

Quote from: davy on December 07, 2023, 01:57:59 PMTWC Post

I'm giving Toby and TZP a warning for attempted death posting.

No warning for BDS and math yet, but both of you are on thin ice with your posts.

I know I'm mainly to blame for being unable to give the phase update when the phase ends, but most of you should be experienced enough to know not to share game-relevant information when you cannot be sure if you are still alive at that point in the game.

As my memory serves, the default expectation for situations like this is that the cutoff for votes/night actions remains the same but players are still allowed to converse (unless you are the target of an insta/unambiguous lynch), as being expected to not post for an indeterminate amount of time without a phase extension can also impact the game, especially when timezones mean that such a stipulation would prevent certain players from posting for a significant amount of time when they would normally be able to post.

In a case like this where a phase extension was provided, it would be a reasonable expectation (i.e. saying something like "cutoff for night actions remains the same but there will be a phase extension going forward; please do not post in the thread between cutoff and proper update"), but it was not conveyed ahead of time that there would even be such a phase extension.

That being said, something to keep in mind for future hosts is that it's a good idea to make such expectations unambiguous if such a situation arises.

Anyway, back to the game

Quote from: Toby on December 07, 2023, 11:40:54 AMwhy would should I call attention to your obvious reaction test/ploy to sway the wolves from realising math as the CO

I'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this. The whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

For full disclosure, my post was an attempt to try and see if we could bait the nightkill away from N1P2 (considering Xiao was wolfed N2 it seemed like a possibility that the wolves could be swayed from wolfing N1P2 again). The fact that you saw it as a distraction from Math is... certainly interesting.

Luigi should post the seer results publicly, and if they feel ok to disclose their identity then they can do that as well. Personally, knowing that there's a chance we have a shot at one more seering (if we lynch a wolf today or have already lynched a wolf) I'd feel better if they didn't unless absolutely necessary; but the choice is up to them.

So, I'm having a little trouble right now. Cause everyone seems suspicious. BDS still seems most Town to me, but everyone else's antics are just confusing me so bad. I was avoiding saying this, and I still won't give any details, but I thought it was rather obvious who TWG Luigi was for quite some time. I agree with BDS that knowing who it is won't help.

Sorry everyone, I'm on a road trip now and will have more thoughts to share tomorrow. Davy, if that actually is a precedent I'm very sorry! I did not recall that was a rule. I also do not see it in the rules, and it's something you yourself have done recently in the Assassin's Game, so I don't think it's an unreasonable mistake to make.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 05:28:33 PMFor full disclosure, my post was an attempt to try and see if we could bait the nightkill away from N1P2 (considering Xiao was wolfed N2 it seemed like a possibility that the wolves could be swayed from wolfing N1P2 again).

Luigi should post the seer results publicly, and if they feel ok to disclose their identity then they can do that as well. Personally, knowing that there's a chance we have a shot at one more seering (if we lynch a wolf today or have already lynched a wolf) I'd feel better if they didn't unless absolutely necessary; but the choice is up to them.

So you're not claiming to be CO then? I assume you shared this plan with N1P2 first? Since N1P2 didn't jump at it, I thought it was a legit accident

If you're not Luigi then you and Luigi should give your accounts on this plan of yours, since Luigi should be in on it.

Quote from: Toby on December 07, 2023, 11:40:54 AMwhy would should I call attention to your obvious reaction test/ploy to sway the wolves from realising math as the CO

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 05:28:33 PMThe fact that you saw it as a distraction from Math is... certainly interesting.

And no, I'm not CO nor did I ever feel like I was made to be the obvious candidate

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 05:21:04 PMAs my memory serves, the default expectation for situations like this is that the cutoff for votes/night actions remains the same but players are still allowed to converse (unless you are the target of an insta/unambiguous lynch), as being expected to not post for an indeterminate amount of time without a phase extension can also impact the game, especially when timezones mean that such a stipulation would prevent certain players from posting for a significant amount of time when they would normally be able to post.

In a case like this where a phase extension was provided, it would be a reasonable expectation (i.e. saying something like "cutoff for night actions remains the same but there will be a phase extension going forward; please do not post in the thread between cutoff and proper update"), but it was not conveyed ahead of time that there would even be such a phase extension.

That being said, something to keep in mind for future hosts is that it's a good idea to make such expectations unambiguous if such a situation arises.

I agree that I should have communicated this more clearly. Consider that lesson learned.

I do disagree with you on the timezone. Any amount of time the players have lost they will regain because the next phase update is pushed back the same amount.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 05:31:59 PMSorry everyone, I'm on a road trip now and will have more thoughts to share tomorrow. Davy, if that actually is a precedent I'm very sorry! I did not recall that was a rule. I also do not see it in the rules, and it's something you yourself have done recently in the Assassin's Game, so I don't think it's an unreasonable mistake to make.

I did indeed post in the Assassin's Gambit after the phase update, because I thought the phase ended an hour later than it actually did. While it was an honest mistake, it was against the rules for me to do so, and it would not have been remiss for Kai or the TWC to give me a warning for that.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 07, 2023, 10:44:17 PMSo you're not claiming to be CO then? I assume you shared this plan with N1P2 first? Since N1P2 didn't jump at it, I thought it was a legit accident

If you're not Luigi then you and Luigi should give your accounts on this plan of yours, since Luigi should be in on it.

N1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 05:28:33 PMAnyway, back to the game
I'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this. The whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

Can you give further examples of me seeming like I know things I shouldn't since it's apparently been the whole thread? No idea what you mean prior to today so wonder if that's just an exaggerated accusation

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 05:49:28 AMN1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

Do you know who Luigi is ?

Quote from: Toby on December 08, 2023, 06:19:51 AMCan you give further examples of me seeming like I know things I shouldn't since it's apparently been the whole thread? No idea what you mean prior to today so wonder if that's just an exaggerated accusation

When I said that, I meant "the common thread I've felt with your posts is." And another example I can think of off the top of my head is one I brought up earlier in the game with you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

In this case, you seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point (possibly both).

Quote from: Toby on December 08, 2023, 06:20:15 AMDo you know who Luigi is ?

Yes.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 07:18:07 AMWhen I said that, I meant "the common thread I've felt with your posts is." And another example I can think of off the top of my head is one I brought up earlier in the game with you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

In this case, you seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point (possibly both).

That's not true. I never asked N1P2 to release the identity of the real seer.

I asked him if he was able to tell us yet which TWG account was the human seer so we knew which one to trust

Which was part of the plan I suggested night 1 which people agreed with

Regardless, how is that me knowing information I'm not supposed to ? - it's literally quite the opposite. I was in the unknown and was looking for an update on if the plan that I proposed was working.

Also so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense? And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case? Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Are you just throwing shit at me so see what sticks? You've just said a few things that either aren't true, don't make sense, or have been exaggerated. I don't get what's going on here and this entire game a lot of what you've said feels orchestrated or a performance

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 05:49:28 AMN1P2 was aware of the plan and agreed that it was worth a shot, if only for the chance at blocking the redirection (assuming it hasn't been used yet) for another night. It basically boiled down to "pretend to make a slip by posting something that makes it seem like you're the CO." If N1P2 died I agreed to divulge the whole thing straight away, but if N1P2 survived there's a chance we could've kept the ruse going for as long as is necessary.

I did not speak with Luigi directly (no particular reason; I just thought it was funny that I had like three straight pages of PMs with N1P2), but I asked N1P2 to make sure Luigi was on board with the plan.

I get town vibes from the plan, but I want to ask: why did N1P2 trust you so much? Would you be willing to share some of the content of your PMs? I say this because it's reminiscent of the plan a couple games ago when Specs fake claimed seer in a similar way and he was a wolf. The reason for doing it now is different but the way you can gain trust from doing so is the same

Quote from: Toby on December 08, 2023, 07:37:08 AMAlso so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense? And why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case? Math is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Since Waluigi apparently seered me night 1, it's possible I was the actual target and received the infamous blue reading truthfully, which would make me the herring. What that wouldn't explain is why I (or N1P2) didn't die the next night. So it's unlikely, but a possibility nonetheless

Quote from: Toby on December 08, 2023, 07:37:08 AMThat's not true. I never asked N1P2 to release the identity of the real seer.

I didn't say that in the post you quoted.

QuoteI asked him if he was able to tell us yet which TWG account was the human seer so we knew which one to trust

Yes, which is what I said in the post you quoted.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 07:18:07 AMyou pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

My wording may have been a bit awkward on that. I understand any confusion.

QuoteRegardless, how is that me knowing information I'm not supposed to ? - it's literally quite the opposite. I was in the unknown and was looking for an update on if the plan that I proposed was working.

As I said back when it initially happened, it feels like fishing for information over whether N1P2 bought your claim. As a wolf you would've known that Waluigi claimed to be THC, and getting an early answer on whether your claim was trusted would've told you whether or not THC was likely to be revived as a way of disproving your claim, which would likely inform your strategy going forward—if N1P2 had up and said he believed Luigi it wouldn't have been necessary to revive THC in the first place.

I'm not sure why you would've thought N1P2 would've already been able to verify which seer was the real one, and again, why you would have just assumed N1P2 wouldn't have released it without you pressing for it.

QuoteAlso so because I thought math was the CO that means I must have seered yourself or math? How does that make sense?

Hypothetically speaking, if you wolf seered me green (or if I were the Miller, which you'd know ahead of time) you'd know I wasn't the CO. If you wolf seered Math blue then your initial instinct upon seeing my post would be to assume Math was the CO and I was trying to cover for him. Doubly so if you seered both of us.

Again, the fact that you need me to spell that out for you explicitly (when I know you're more than capable of reasoning it out for yourself) really feels like you're fishing for information on the CO's real identity.

Hypothetically if you were a wolf and had gotten two blue seerings, you'd definitely already know the CO's identity after this point.

QuoteAnd why would I be so blunt about it if that was the case?

As I recall your playstyle tends to be pretty blunt regardless of role.

QuoteMath is saying he's not the CO now so if that is true, then how would me seering math as a wolf lead to me knowing math is the CO if he apparently now isn't? Wolves receive a blue result for their seers

Yes, wolves receive blue seerings for their results. So if you seered Math blue and saw my faked slip it might lead you to think Math was the CO and I was covering for him.

QuoteYou've just said a few things that either aren't true, don't make sense, or have been exaggerated.

I'd like you to cite some examples since you haven't done so yet.

QuoteI don't get what's going on here and this entire game a lot of what you've said feels orchestrated or a performance

Yes, N1P2 and I did a lot of orchestrating behind the scenes, and part of that included putting on a performance to either avoid giving out information, or pretending we're giving out more information than we actually were.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 08, 2023, 12:27:35 PMI get town vibes from the plan, but I want to ask: why did N1P2 trust you so much? Would you be willing to share some of the content of your PMs? I say this because it's reminiscent of the plan a couple games ago when Specs fake claimed seer in a similar way and he was a wolf. The reason for doing it now is different but the way you can gain trust from doing so is the same

Game state doesn't make sense with me as a wolf:
1. If I were a wolf Waluigi wouldn't have made the blue slip.
2. If I were a wolf and Waluigi unintentionally made the blue slip, it's unlikely I would have called it out.
3. If I were a wolf and Waluigi intentionally made the blue slip, it's likely I would've done so sooner so as to not give others a chance to do so.
4. I knew the identity of the CO as soon as they claimed to N1P2, as well as helped N1P2 carry out the plan to verify which seer was the legit one. If I had wolfed N1P2 N2, then that would've put me in a unique position of trust and forced the humans to be more reliant on me. There was no reason for me not to wolf N1P2 N2.
5. N1P2 actually suggested lynching the Luigi claimant, which I talked him out of for obvious reasons.
6. I offered suggestions for both the N2 and N3 seerings (I won't reveal who I suggested for N3 yet, but I suggested Toby for N2 since Specs was dead and he was the person I initially wanted to be seered). Since I knew the CO's identity it would been ridiculously easy for me to change the Toby seering to a red one, or, better yet, suggested my wolf partner to be seered.
7. At various points of the game I have either been openly suspicious of, seriously cast doubt upon, or directly tried to lynch every player currently alive aside from myself. The only player likely to be my partner would be Specs—but again, given my close contact with N1P2 it's very likely I could have steered him away from joining the Specs lynch if I were so inclined.

Gimme a moment to sort through my PMs and pick a few out which don't reveal any info that hasn't already been revealed. As I said, I have like 3 pages of them from N1P2 :P

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 08, 2023, 12:39:59 PMSince Waluigi apparently seered me night 1, it's possible I was the actual target and received the infamous blue reading truthfully, which would make me the herring. What that wouldn't explain is why I (or N1P2) didn't die the next night. So it's unlikely, but a possibility nonetheless

It's possible you were seered N2.

BDS, as far as your performance goes, I liked your "oops that was meant to be a PM post", and I even tried to casually lend plausibility to it by insinuating that it could have been a result of the forum update. But now we are in a position where you are accusing other players of knowing things they shouldn't,  despite the fact we don't have any concrete reason for why you should have access to that info. Seriously, to Math's point—what is it that N1P2 trusted you for?

As far as general strategy goes, I've thought about it more and I think that the Chosen One should claim this phase. That's info that could easily make the difference between a lynch and a mislynch, and there is no power that the Chosen One can perform alive that he couldn't perform dead. The worst-case scenario is that we have a confirmed human to provide a frame for the lynch this phase, that player gets wolfed tonight, and then that player still has a seering result for us in LyLo D4. What's the downside, given that we could be in LyLo now?

Also, can we get a Luigi seering?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 08, 2023, 01:56:22 PMBut now we are in a position where you are accusing other players of knowing things they shouldn't,  despite the fact we don't have any concrete reason for why you should have access to that info.

This doesn't make sense. I'm accusing Toby of having information he'd only have access to if he were a wolf. The info I have access to me was directly told to me by N1P2. They're two completely different things.

QuoteSeriously, to Math's point—what is it that N1P2 trusted you for?

PMs forthcoming for more information, but initially, me calling out Waluigi's slip (I don't think that alone was worth 100% trusting me for, but N1P2 reached out to me first), and based on what N1P2 himself said it seems like N1P2's trust built up from there based on our exchanges.

QuoteAs far as general strategy goes, I've thought about it more and I think that the Chosen One should claim this phase. That's info that could easily make the difference between a lynch and a mislynch, and there is no power that the Chosen One can perform alive that he couldn't perform dead. The worst-case scenario is that we have a confirmed human to provide a frame for the lynch this phase, that player gets wolfed tonight, and then that player still has a seering result for us in LyLo D4. What's the downside, given that we could be in LyLo now?

If the redirection hasn't been used yet, then the CO claiming would make their final seering useless if we lynch a wolf today (or have already lynched a wolf). As I said though, it's up to them whether they want to take that risk.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 08, 2023, 02:10:37 PMAlso, can we get a Luigi seering?

@TWG Luigi

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 02:23:06 PMThis doesn't make sense. I'm accusing Toby of having information he'd only have access to if he were a wolf. The info I have access to me was directly told to me by N1P2. They're two completely different things.

Oh I misunderstood--I thought you meant that Toby had somehow found something out that was between you and N1P2. My b

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 02:23:06 PMIf the redirection hasn't been used yet, then the CO claiming would make their final seering useless if we lynch a wolf today (or have already lynched a wolf). As I said though, it's up to them whether they want to take that risk.

This is reasonable, but the more time goes on, the more likely the wolves are to home in on the identity of the CO via their seerings, which are more accurate than the human seer's. Given that the wolves have had three seerings and six phases' worth of social deductions to try to figure it out, my personal opinion is that a claim is far more likely to be helpful to the humans at this stage in the game.

I suppose I'll wait for these PMs before I say much more

(REDACTED) is the CO's real identity, redacted for... well, guess. :P Some PMs are redacted even further to avoid accidentally giving out unrevealed info.

Early PMs

The first PM I got from N1P2, before he even claimed:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 01, 2023, 01:26:05 PMI dont PM often, but interesting catch on the blue vs green note.
Do you think getting "assumed town" is going to help you or paint a target on your back?

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:28:21 PMDepends. Like I said in the thread, there's a chance I'm either the miller or was the wolves real N1 seering pick. If that's not true, then it'll likely paint a target on my back—even moreso than is inherently so for a veteran player.

N1P2's followup:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 01, 2023, 01:43:13 PMHmm ok, fair. I trust you enough in this situation to help steer us in the right direction.
Because of the potential "slip" then, should i claim the blue town role that i have? I have a tendency to wait too long and didnt think that we cared enough for N1 claims haha

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 01, 2023, 01:47:31 PMI'll leave it up to you, but personally I'd at least wait until:
1. We hear davy's response on whether or not the Redirection Wolf can cause the human seer to seer a blue player blue (which is otherwise impossible).
2. TWG Luigi shows up in the thread.

If you're a special and suspicion on you is picking up, then definitely claim.

[close]

A Tale of Two COs

Part of a conversation about Waluigi's THC claim:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 02, 2023, 06:55:28 PMSince your revive isn't wasted if used on the Chosen One (who can't be revived), if you use your revive on THC N2 (let me know if you do) and it doesn't work, that confirms Waluigi is THC and is the human seer. If not, then, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It definitively confirms Waluigi is the wolf seer I guess?

N1P2's response:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 02, 2023, 07:43:27 PMYknow, that might be a good point. Perhaps i will use it on him tonight. If by the next day you see THC isnt revived, then he is the CO and you should tell others (assuming im dead). If he is revived, then you need to tell others its a wolf...
That might be a good plan...?

At this point, the real CO hadn't claimed yet.

Later:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 06:34:21 AMHi, im here super quick so you can formulate thoughts. Ill respond more when i take my lunch break.

(REDACTED) messaged me saying they were CO.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 06:35:31 AMEither way, need to help me dig. I think (REDACTED) should lynched because then i can prove either thc or (REDACTED)'s word. (Again hoping thc isnt miller)

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 03, 2023, 06:54:03 AMIf (REDACTED) is CO I definitely don't think we should lynch (REDACTED) today.

Also, I'm sort of trying to pretend in public that we're not in contact, at least for the time being. The less the wolves know the better.

N1P2's response:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 06:58:38 AMThis is good. Along the lines of what i was thinking. I have one other contingency in place, but who do you think is a good town trust?

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 03, 2023, 07:13:52 AMThat is... hard to say. Normally I'd say Oricorio, but if (REDACTED) is a wolf that could call that into doubt. Overall though, Oricorio is still probably the most trustworthy of all the other players, from my perspective.

I don't think N1P2 ever mentioned what the other contingency was.

[close]

More Recent PMs

Part of a larger convo:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 05, 2023, 02:26:32 PMhonestly i have half a mind to publicly fakeclaim co anyway just in case the wolves haven't used their redirection

it's bad bait (especially if I'm the miller) but bait nonetheless and if the wolves genuinely made the waluigi slip they just might fall for that too

N1P2's response:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 05, 2023, 02:34:08 PMA fake claim isn't half bad, but perhaps the reveal of something like that can come from me? I'm more believable with the town at the moment, and although you offer creds as of late, we need a way for them to buy it.
I'm down, even as a way to redirect attention, but it should be either carefully slid into a post or "accidentally" slipped...

Later:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:28:28 AMIf you want (again, with (REDACTED)/Luigi's approval) we can definitely try to double down on "BDS is the CO wink wink." With the new layout as an excuse, maybe I can respond to you in the topic pretending I accidentally posted something instead of PM'ing it to you, maybe something like "I definitely feel better seering Math tonight. I don't think the wolves will redirect me because we've done a lot to throw them off the scent already."

N1P2's response:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 06, 2023, 02:45:25 PMHaha i like the attempt, and the switchover to the new layout could be a hilarious excuse... but would it be something BDS does? Would it be something you would let slip?

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 03:09:38 PMAll we have to do is muddy the water for the wolves and get them to question :P

N1P2's response:

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 06, 2023, 03:40:16 PMokay, then i will let you handle the slip however you seem fit, if you find a time that makes most sense, if you decide to at all.

My response:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 10:57:21 PMThe bait has been set. We do a little trolling of our own and see how the wolves like it :P

I will (actually) be back in the morning. Hopefully me completely dipping out for the night makes it look even more authentic. It would be good if you also refrained from commenting about it unless you have anything important you need to add in the thread before your likely demise o7

[close]

As a note these are definitely not ALL the PMs exchanged between me and N1P2, only the most important ones (IMO).

The PMs check out, that's good info.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 08, 2023, 02:38:11 PMThis is reasonable, but the more time goes on, the more likely the wolves are to home in on the identity of the CO via their seerings, which are more accurate than the human seer's. Given that the wolves have had three seerings and six phases' worth of social deductions to try to figure it out, my personal opinion is that a claim is far more likely to be helpful to the humans at this stage in the game.

I agree with TZP. As a human sitting in the dark, I don't know my direction for voting tomorrow, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable by the notion that we should prioritize a phase that may not even happen.

BDS and/or THC, could you expand on the mindset that it isn't important for humans to know the CO?

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 08, 2023, 05:51:51 PMThe PMs check out, that's good info.

I agree with TZP. As a human sitting in the dark, I don't know my direction for voting tomorrow, and I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable by the notion that we should prioritize a phase that may not even happen.

BDS and/or THC, could you expand on the mindset that it isn't important for humans to know the CO?

As I said, if we lynch a wolf this phase (or have already lynched a wolf) we get one more seering. If the CO reveals their identity and the wolves haven't used their redirection yet (and assuming we lynch the master wolf and not the redirection wolf), then that seering is basically useless to us. However, if the CO stays anonymous there's still a chance the wolves could whiff their redirection if they haven't used it yet.

The CO is never in danger of being lynched anyway because they can just step in as Luigi if it comes down to that. Takes 3 votes to insta, and if both wolves are alive then it only takes 1 wrong human vote for them to wolf rush—nobody should be placing a vote until we've all stated our voting intentions and agreed on someone to vote.

That being said at the end of the day it's the CO's choice.

I hope to see seer results by the morning. If not, well, then... I'll definitely be around well before phase end to give my thoughts.

Just noticed phase ends today but at least it's been extended a few more hours

I was out last night but trying to read through bits despite the hangover

THC has been largely absent this phase which isn't great given the unknown about him still

Reading through BDS' points I do mostly agree that a some of his play would have been different if we was a wolf - notably that given he knew the Chosen One and knew I was being seered, he easily could have redirected that result to red but I showed green. I mean it's possible the redirection was used night 1, or BDS wanted to keep the redirection to protect him/his partner rather than use it offensively.

One point I don't get is how in PMs he was reading Oricorio as human but then in topic they voted Oricorio? I'm not sure how that came about. Especially given the green seeding on him, I expected there to be something more that less N1P2/BDS to lead a lynch against Oricorio - I did also vote Oricorio but I wasn't town reading him in private at the same time

Also where is Luigi with the seer results there's only about 6 hours left in phase

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 07:23:30 AMTHC has been largely absent this phase which isn't great given the unknown about him still

I've been here reading everything. I just don't really have anything to say right now. I know I was asked to explain why I think revealing CO wouldn't be helpful, but I can't explain without giving away too much information.

You don't have anything to say in what could be mislynch or lose?

I'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 07:23:30 AMReading through BDS' points I do mostly agree that a some of his play would have been different if we was a wolf - notably that given he knew the Chosen One and knew I was being seered, he easily could have redirected that result to red but I showed green. I mean it's possible the redirection was used night 1, or BDS wanted to keep the redirection to protect him/his partner rather than use it offensively.

You know I run a tight ship as a wolf. There's no way the Waluigi slip would have happened with me on the wolf team. Unless my partner was completely inactive and just Leeroy Jenkins'd it up in the thread, we 100% would've discussed it well ahead of time.

That's similarly the reason I have hesitation of suspecting you as a wolf, though given that you came up with a plan to try and figure out which seer was the real seer, I could potentially see you agreeing to a plan to intentionally tank Waluigi's reputation, especially if THC was your wolf partner.

QuoteOne point I don't get is how in PMs he was reading Oricorio as human but then in topic they voted Oricorio? I'm not sure how that came about. Especially given the green seeding on him, I expected there to be something more that less N1P2/BDS to lead a lynch against Oricorio - I did also vote Oricorio but I wasn't town reading him in private at the same time

My opinions changed with new information and new discussion in the thread. The logic (which I believe I stated in the topic) was that if Specs was a wolf, Oricorio was his most likely partner, given that Oricorio and I were the only living players who hadn't voted for Specs.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 01:25:07 PMAs I said back when it initially happened, it feels like fishing for information over whether N1P2 bought your claim. As a wolf you would've known that Waluigi claimed to be THC, and getting an early answer on whether your claim was trusted would've told you whether or not THC was likely to be revived as a way of disproving your claim, which would likely inform your strategy going forward—if N1P2 had up and said he believed Luigi it wouldn't have been necessary to revive THC in the first place.

I literally said in topic we should be reviving THC multiple times. So logically your theory of me hoping THC wouldn't be revived doesn't make sense. If we didn't revive THC then it felt like the next chance we would have got to revive a different night kill, would have been night 4. (because we expected N1P2 to die night2, and would have to wait for a different kill night 3). I don't think there was any feeling that THC wasn't going to be revived?

QuoteI'm not sure why you would've thought N1P2 would've already been able to verify which seer was the real one, and again, why you would have just assumed N1P2 wouldn't have released it without you pressing for it.
Hypothetically speaking, if you wolf seered me green (or if I were the Miller, which you'd know ahead of time) you'd know I wasn't the CO. If you wolf seered Math blue then your initial instinct upon seeing my post would be to assume Math was the CO and I was trying to cover for him. Doubly so if you seered both of us.

N1P2 didn't post much this game, and I've never played with them before - and they gave the impression they were rusty and unsure what to do a lot of the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for updates. And it was my plan that I suggested so I wanted to make sure it was following through. I couldn't know there was a counterclaim, and as I had laid out when I initially suggested the plan, that if there was a counterclaim then it would have scored us a 50% chance of catching a wolf. I suggested the plan night 1, I didn't predict that the plan wouldn't move forward until day 1, or that the wolves were able to fake claim as a dead player.

QuoteAgain, the fact that you need me to spell that out for you explicitly (when I know you're more than capable of reasoning it out for yourself) really feels like you're fishing for information on the CO's real identity.

I'm just not following why you think that I would publicly assume math is the Chosen One just because I possibly seered you and thought you weren't? I assumed your post was a ploy as you posted it with a clear mistake and didn't follow up. Interesting from the PM's between you and N1P2 - I don't understand why you told the alliance leader with the most secret knowledge in the game, to stay quiet and not post anything on their likely last living phase? They could have given us a legacy post or something

QuoteHypothetically if you were a wolf and had gotten two blue seerings, you'd definitely already know the CO's identity after this point.

Is this human points towards me then since clearly I've not blue seered anyone, and I couldn't have assumed math was the CO based on seer results. I literally just saw your post and had a quick thought. TZP very much likely could be the CO, as could you - but I figured because you were public about PMing N1P2 it's unlikely

QuoteAs I recall your playstyle tends to be pretty blunt regardless of role.

This just seems like a made up comment since you haven't seen me play anything but human in at least 5 years and I've definitely changed lol

QuoteYes, wolves receive blue seerings for their results. So if you seered Math blue and saw my faked slip it might lead you to think Math was the CO and I was covering for him.

Or I just saw your fake slip and made a different assumption based on your fake slip

QuoteI'd like you to cite some examples since you haven't done so yet.

Not true:

Quoteyou pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer.

Don't make sense:

Quoteyou seeing my post and jumping directly to "hm, Math must be the CO" makes me think you may be a wolf who seered either me or Math at some point

(because if I'm a wolf I'm going to call out loud and clear who I think is the CO based on using my wolf seering to find out- right?)

Exaggerated:

QuoteThe whole thread I've felt with your posts through the game is that it feels like you know things you shouldn't and haven't been fully concealing it.

I've only been wondering who the CO is this phase, not the entire game - based on the fact we don't know if we will get to another phase - also with 3 wolf seers and 3 redirections, it's likely the wolves found the seer already/used their redirection. If you can't see that it inclines me to believe that you know the wolves haven't use the redirection yet for some reason

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 07, 2023, 05:28:33 PMI'm not sure how you can say something like this an not realize how obvious suspicious it is to say something like this.

To be honest, I've not really been conscious about if my honest opinion is going to come across as suspicious

Re: Math, just gonna say these two things right out of the gate:
1. Again, for reasons I mentioned in my prior post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439887#msg439887), gamestate doesn't make sense if I were a wolf, and to think I'm a wolf would have to be ignoring all of these to various degrees. If I were a wolf, this would be an incredibly sloppy game for me, to say the least, with me intentionally dancing around wolves' win condition and deliberately sabotaging myself instead of making optimal, obvious plays.
2. Your logic is, quite frankly, assuming I'm a complete doofus :P I knew the CO's identity after they claimed. It would be incredibly stupid for me to wolf them immediately, rather than just wolf N1P2 (which would, again, put me into a better position of trust than what actually happened) and then wolf the CO which would give me significantly more plausible deniability.
3. At literally any point in the game Luigi could've revealed their identity with no input from me, which would throw a wrench into your proposal for my "master plan."
4. Again, N1P2 literally suggested lynching the CO. Both he and I had votes on Xiao before Xiao claimed (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439578#msg439578), so it would've been incredibly easy for me to simply agree with him and keep pushing that lynch. Lynching the CO at the SL's suggestion then wolfing the SL would've been an absolute slam dunk if I were a wolf.

And, yes, Xiao is the CO. No reason to hide it now, given that everyone else has posted several times and seer results still haven't come out. I've had no direct contact with Xiao the whole game except sending Luigi a single PM this phase.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 08:56:52 AMLike I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

Knowing that Xiao is the CO, you now know why revealing that information has no bearings on the lynch results. Even if the CO was still alive, it still wouldn't for reasons I mentioned earlier.

QuoteBut to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Both N1P2 and I voted for Xiao before Xiao claimed CO. Plus, Xiao only changed votes:
1. After I shot down the idea of lynching Xiao.
2. After Specs changed his vote to Math.

QuoteWhy it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

As said above, this makes little sense to do if I were a wolf when wolfing N1P2 then Xiao would make more sense.

Quote"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

My speculation is that the wolves seered Xiao blue N1 and then seered Math blue N2, which would make sense especially if Toby was on the wolf team (given his reaction to my "slip"). If I were the miller that would also make sense why I wasn't seered or wolfed.

That being said, it's also perfectly possible that Xiao was a random wolfing. Wolves as Waluigi claimed to be THC and probably had some idea that might lead to THC being revived to disprove their claim. Wolfing N1P2 N2 would've meant that THC would've been the most logical wolfing candidate N3. Wolfing a random N2 would've kept THC alive (so either he's a wolf or you make people think he could still be a wolf).

And before you try and hit me with the "yes, that was your logic for not wolfing N1P2," again keep in mind that I knew the CO's identity and could have easily framed Toby as being red. I knew who would be seered as I made suggestions as to who should be seered (and if Luigi took my suggestion, TZP should've been seered).

Quote"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

I don't think the wolves are framing me at all; I think the wolves were working with the information they had.

Worth noting is that I don't think TZP has released any of his PMs with N1P2 (correct me if I'm wrong). I don't imagine N1P2 told TZP that Xiao was the CO, but it seems like this is a thread that's been oddly ignored.

Quote"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

Again, this supposed plan would be completely dashed by, y'know, Luigi popping in at any time and revealing their identity. I'm not why you'd think that I'd base a plan on such a flimsy, unreliable route instead of going for the optimal plays that I had laid out right in front of me.

QuoteNow this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

THC picked up on the CO's identity after N1P2 posted PMs from Waluigi/Luigi, and even DM'd N1P2 saying "I know that the CO is Xiao lol"

Given how last-minute those PMs were posted (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439645#msg439645), and that THC was dead at the time, I don't think that provides any wolf points against him.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 08:56:52 AMXiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

I knew because of the message N1P2 showed in the thread. Xiao's the only one in the game that doesn't capitalize the beginning of their sentences. I figured we wouldn't want the wolves to know that the CO was already dead, though I've had suspicions that they already knew, which is why Xiao was wolfed N2. In fact, the fact you knew it was Xiao makes me wonder if perhaps you took up that opportunity. I feel that BDS would still have wolfed N1P2 N2, since they could have used that opportunity to redirect the CO's seering. Since the Luigi account stays active even after the CO's death, there's no point in wolfing the CO. It feels like a move a newer player would make. I'll be honest, I was planning on voting Toby this phase, but with your post, I feel a lot more comfortable going back with my original gut instinct and voting you, math.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 08:56:52 AMI'm sorry to those who have been withholding info, but I'm about to reveal it anyway:

Xiao is the CO and I think BDS has been hiding it for a different reason.

Why I'm revealing this:
If I figured it out, then so can the wolves
Like I said, I'd rather not lose the game before even getting to the next seer and this may be the evidence we need against a wolf

How I figured it out:
First, process of elimination: of the alive players, three are asking for a CO claim and of the two who aren't, it can't be THC and BDS has claimed against it. Luigi also hasn't shown up despite all of the alive players being active in the last day. Of the dead players, Specs and Oricorio didn't claim despite being lynched, N1P2 is the lamb and that leaves Xiao. But to support this further, BDS said that N1P2 wanted the CO candidate lynched so I went back to see why that would be and sure enough, N1P2 voted for Xiao for inactivity, only to change vote after seeing the "luiiigiii" confirmation.

Why it matters:
BDS knew the CO's identity since that point in day 1 by his own admission. Mysteriously, Xiao then got wolfed. Many of us weren't sure why that would be when the SL had claimed with no counter. Now it makes more sense.

"What if the wolves seered Xiao blue N1?"
It's a definite possibility, but it's 1/6 that they seered Xiao and even when they hypothetically got a blue reading, it's a 50/50 gamble (excluding SL as it had been claimed by the next wolfing) as opposed to wolfing the confirmed human (SL). Since Xiao was a top lynch candidate as well, wolves had to be confident they had their target. And I'd be willing they found that confidence by being directly handed the CO's identity over the 1/12 chance that they maybe got it.

"What if the wolves are framing BDS?"
We didn't know most of this info until yesterday real time. BDS admitted most of it himself.

"Why didn't N1P2 call BDS out?"
Probably a combination of trust from earlier in the game and not wanting to reveal the CO by calling it out.

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

I was wondering if it was Xiao and especially with BDS revealing N1P2 wanted to lynch the CO, voted Xiao, and then changed their mind after the Luigi post - that adds up. Also given that we've all been active and denied being CO, and Luigi hasn't even given us a seer result yet - I think it probably confirms it as Xiao.

And feeding into the BDS is wolf theory, it does make sense why he would be resistant about revealing the chosen one if he wolfed them once he found out. N1P2 being alive was keeping all suspicion off BDS as he was trusted - but when it comes down to it BDS was only trusted based on an initial hunch on a day 1 post. Keeping N1P2 alive longer also gave BDS more content for 'well if I was a wolf then I could have done xyz...'.

and given THC's recent unwillingness to find the wolves this phase, a partnership there could make sense? And if there are 2 wolves left alive then today really is mislynch or lose.

It would also explain why this conversation between them felt awkwardly pre planned

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 06, 2023, 02:28:40 PMWho do you think Specs' most likely partner would be? Not sure if you answered that last time I asked.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 06, 2023, 03:45:03 PMI previously said math, but:I really don't see anyone doing this intentionally to frame Toby. Like, not only is it not consistent enough to be a thing to copy, but I honestly didn't even notice he does it until it was pointed out. I just have a hard time believing the wolves would have done it on purpose to frame Toby. And since Toby's the only one who does that naturally in this game, that's looking like a very viable option to me. It's a shame because I actually wasn't super suspicious of Toby before that point, which I usually am.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 09:53:48 AMRe: Math, just gonna say these two things right out of the gate:

ok definitely more than two things but you get my point :P

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 06, 2023, 09:26:08 AMI'll be around till the end of phase, though I don't have much more to say regarding my vote.

I won't insta Oricorio either, though I'd be ok with it.

I'll throw you a bone though

BDS

Probably a throwaway vote but I want to see what happens toward the end

^ posted the wrong post without my comment

But taking a look back at math's posts and this one sticks out to me as odd. Like what does he mean by throwing a bone? To who? It felt like trying to give Oricorio a chance at survival by voting someone else and seeing if anyone else moved that way. Trying to give Oricorio (who he claimed to be suspicious of) an out?

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 09:40:31 AMI literally said in topic we should be reviving THC multiple times. So logically your theory of me hoping THC wouldn't be revived doesn't make sense. If we didn't revive THC then it felt like the next chance we would have got to revive a different night kill, would have been night 4. (because we expected N1P2 to die night2, and would have to wait for a different kill night 3). I don't think there was any feeling that THC wasn't going to be revived?

That's... not what I said.

QuoteN1P2 didn't post much this game, and I've never played with them before - and they gave the impression they were rusty and unsure what to do a lot of the time. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for updates. And it was my plan that I suggested so I wanted to make sure it was following through. I couldn't know there was a counterclaim, and as I had laid out when I initially suggested the plan, that if there was a counterclaim then it would have scored us a 50% chance of catching a wolf. I suggested the plan night 1, I didn't predict that the plan wouldn't move forward until day 1, or that the wolves were able to fake claim as a dead player.

Again, your objections could've been handled via PM.

QuoteI'm just not following why you think that I would publicly assume math is the Chosen One just because I possibly seered you and thought you weren't? I assumed your post was a ploy as you posted it with a clear mistake and didn't follow up. Interesting from the PM's between you and N1P2 - I don't understand why you told the alliance leader with the most secret knowledge in the game, to stay quiet and not post anything on their likely last living phase? They could have given us a legacy post or something

QuoteIs this human points towards me then since clearly I've not blue seered anyone, and I couldn't have assumed math was the CO based on seer results. I literally just saw your post and had a quick thought. TZP very much likely could be the CO, as could you - but I figured because you were public about PMing N1P2 it's unlikely

ok now you're just intentionally playing dumb

QuoteThis just seems like a made up comment since you haven't seen me play anything but human in at least 5 years and I've definitely changed lol

???

That doesn't mean it's made up at all??

QuoteOr I just saw your fake slip and made a different assumption based on your fake slip

An assumption which is completely out of left field and doesn't make any sense at all?

QuoteNot true:

You openly misrepresented what I was saying there. You did ask N1P2 to confirm which TWG account was the legit seer.

QuoteDon't make sense: (because if I'm a wolf I'm going to call out loud and clear who I think is the CO based on using my wolf seering to find out- right?)

Because you had no way of knowing it isn't "obvious" to everyone else.

QuoteExaggerated: I've only been wondering who the CO is this phase, not the entire game - based on the fact we don't know if we will get to another phase - also with 3 wolf seers and 3 redirections, it's likely the wolves found the seer already/used their redirection. If you can't see that it inclines me to believe that you know the wolves haven't use the redirection yet for some reason

Re: underlined; I never said you were wondering who the CO was the entire game. You're the one exaggerating here.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 09, 2023, 09:53:59 AMI knew because of the message N1P2 showed in the thread. Xiao's the only one in the game that doesn't capitalize the beginning of their sentences. I figured we wouldn't want the wolves to know that the CO was already dead, though I've had suspicions that they already knew, which is why Xiao was wolfed N2. In fact, the fact you knew it was Xiao makes me wonder if perhaps you took up that opportunity. I feel that BDS would still have wolfed N1P2 N2, since they could have used that opportunity to redirect the CO's seering. Since the Luigi account stays active even after the CO's death, there's no point in wolfing the CO. It feels like a move a newer player would make. I'll be honest, I was planning on voting Toby this phase, but with your post, I feel a lot more comfortable going back with my original gut instinct and voting you, math.

bruh what

UNVOTE ASAP

No reason to just place a vote without stating your intentions ahead of time when a wolf rush is a real possibility.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 10:06:16 AMbruh what

UNVOTE ASAP

No reason to just place a vote without stating your intentions ahead of time when a wolf rush is a real possibility.

I wouldn't, if it weren't for the fact that Toby seemed to have jumped on the math train right after that. Unvote.

At this point, I'm fully confident that at least one of Toby and math is a wolf. The problem is, I'm having trouble telling which one.

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 09:54:10 AMI was wondering if it was Xiao and especially with BDS revealing N1P2 wanted to lynch the CO, voted Xiao, and then changed their mind after the Luigi post - that adds up. Also given that we've all been active and denied being CO, and Luigi hasn't even given us a seer result yet - I think it probably confirms it as Xiao.

Again, placing votes on Xiao came before Xiao claimed. After Xiao claimed, N1P2 proposed lynching Xiao anyway.

QuoteAnd feeding into the BDS is wolf theory, it does make sense why he would be resistant about revealing the chosen one if he wolfed them once he found out. N1P2 being alive was keeping all suspicion off BDS as he was trusted - but when it comes down to it BDS was only trusted based on an initial hunch on a day 1 post.

Wolfing N1P2 would've put me in a bigger position of trust since I would've been the one to "confirm" the real seer. If I had wolfed N1P2, this situation wouldn't even be happening right now.

And again, you're ignoring all the other stuff that doesn't make sense with me as a wolf.

QuoteKeeping N1P2 alive longer also gave BDS more content for 'well if I was a wolf then I could have done xyz...'.

And, again, your idea of me being a wolf relies on me making wildly sub-optimal plays.

Quoteand given THC's recent unwillingness to find the wolves this phase, a partnership there could make sense? And if there are 2 wolves left alive then today really is mislynch or lose.

I actively proposed the idea that THC could've been a wolf who wolfed himself to deliberately be revived. There's no reason for me to do that as a wolf if THC was my partner. Again, me being a wolf wholly depends on you believing I'd actively shoot myself in the foot repeatedly when better options are right in front of me.

QuoteIt would also explain why this conversation between them felt awkwardly pre planned

literally nothing about that conversation feels pre-planned

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 09, 2023, 10:08:42 AMAt this point, I'm fully confident that at least one of Toby and math is a wolf. The problem is, I'm having trouble telling which one.

Still hoping we get seer results. I'll be back, hopefully before noon.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 02, 2023, 10:02:43 PMSuspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Math's early suspicion list was good
I like the amount of human leans which shows he's not just trying to throw people under the bus but also trying to find the humans

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 03, 2023, 05:32:34 AMYou're right, I'm going off the assumption that wolves didn't wolf themselves night 1. Maybe I shouldn't use the word "confirmed" but I think it's one of the strongest indications of being human we have in the game so far

This post was when he called out THC as confirmed human. Given now he seems to be pointing shade at a THC/BDS pairing - I'm thinking his reaction was genuine to calling THC confirmed human - and not him trying to false confirm his wolf buddy so they could get revived.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 04, 2023, 05:47:07 PMI'm not sure I follow the logic in determining which Luigi is the wolf but I guess we'll hear more that'll clear it up.

What I do know though is if N1P2 is confident in which seer is real, then Toby is likely human because the wolves wouldn't want to frame their master wolf

Another example of clearing a human. But this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 07, 2023, 07:50:14 AMI'm inclined to believe this is a genuine accident and not a roundabout way of fake claiming. That being said, we have to be aware that any seering will be unreliable now

His response to BDS's 'slip' I'm not sure if it was genuine or if he was trying to play along with the slip to try give it more credit. I think the fact he called attention to it is worth noting though, and recognising it was a slip he wasn't afraid to interact with it

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 08:56:52 AMTLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on December 09, 2023, 10:08:02 AMI wouldn't, if it weren't for the fact that Toby seemed to have jumped on the math train right after that. Unvote.

I mean you placed a vote and this could be the last phase. I'm going to look into the person you vote for to see if I agree.

Also if it helps I figure I'll share a PM I had with N1P2 regarding Waluigi
Me:

QuoteHey, I was going to ask in topic but I didn't want the wolves to consider it if they haven't already - but I'm wondering if you'd be able to read into the times that TWG Waluigi PM'd you?

N1P2:

QuoteNot sure if it could tell anything but but some users are in completely different time zones to others on the forum so it's worth a try

All i know is they messaged me at 5am my time (im in arizona / mst)
I think they are either a very early riser or an east coaster or more (ori and thc are sus of this respectively)

if we can use the PM time that Waluigi was sending PM's then Oricorio, THC, and myself actually fit into being awake 5am PST time. Waluigi could have just like set an alarm during the night to throw N1P2 off, or 1/2 of the wolves are likely to be Oricorio or THC (or myself I guess). I'm not sure if it applies to anyone else not mentioned

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 09:53:48 AM1. Again, for reasons I mentioned in my prior post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439887#msg439887), gamestate doesn't make sense if I were a wolf, and to think I'm a wolf would have to be ignoring all of these to various degrees. If I were a wolf, this would be an incredibly sloppy game for me, to say the least, with me intentionally dancing around wolves' win condition and deliberately sabotaging myself instead of making optimal, obvious plays.

But obvious is not always optimal. As someone who keeps bringing up veteran player status, you could be trying to dismiss yourself from the conversation when a wolf makes an unexpected play. That's how I see it

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 10:19:39 AMBut this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

I gave your green reading more weight because it came with a wolf's red reading. It looked like you were being framed.

And yes, my recent accusation is bold. I'm aware I've drawn lots of suspicion toward myself and that if I'm wrong we could lose the game. I took a gamble by posting that but I believe it.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 10:34:02 AMBut obvious is not always optimal. As someone who keeps bringing up veteran player status, you could be trying to dismiss yourself from the conversation when a wolf makes an unexpected play. That's how I see it

Let me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

Quick thoughts:

Bar seering results, here are who I think the most likely wolf pairs are:
- Toby/TZP (they've been on the same page basically this whole phase and have been directing most of their efforts at bashing my credibility)
- Toby/THC (would explain gamestate well and why certain things happened the way they did—Xiao seering N1 and Math seering N2 means Xiao would've been wolfed without being redirected if THC was the dead redirection wolf; I'm just not sure if Toby'd go through with such a crazy plan as wolfing THC)
- Math/TZP (would explain Specs' lynch over someone like Math and Waluigi slip was likely genuine in this case)
- Math/THC (I feel like THC would absolutely be able to pull off wolfing himself in this pairing; both have been laying pretty low except for Math doing a 360 and joining Toby/TZP's accusations against me. THC voting Math as a subversion while knowing he's not in danger of actually getting lynched)

Most likely individual wolves:
- Toby
- TZP
- Math
- THC

Unless we get seer results I will likely vote for Toby. He's been accusing me of exaggerating or straight-up lying while he's been actively misrepresenting what I've been saying and arguing against that instead of what I actually said.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 11:36:34 AMMost likely individual wolves:
- Toby
- TZP
- Math
- THC

To clarify, what I mean by this is "who is most likely to be a wolf regardless of pairings," not "who is most likely to be a lone wolf with their partner dead."

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 11:28:36 AMLet me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

You say that but the game is still going and we don't have many credible leads. The wolves have done a good job of confusing us

"For the sake of subverting expectations." It's a role deception game, so yes

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 11:28:36 AMLet me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

Alternatively, what you could be saying is that I'm the type of player to deliberately handicap my chances of winning so I can say that I won despite poor odds.

Quote from: threalmathguy on December 09, 2023, 12:00:19 PMYou say that but the game is still going and we don't have many credible leads. The wolves have done a good job of confusing us

We have plenty of credible leads. Basically everyone is acting incredibly sketch right now. Sort through their behavior and try to make sense of things.

Quote"For the sake of subverting expectations." It's a role deception game, so yes

Subverting expectations while actively handicapping my chances of winning. In other words, subverting expectations simply for the sake of subverting expectations, not providing any benefit.

And, again, like I've said before, to assume I'm a wolf would be to actively ignore all the things that don't make sense about the game if I were a wolf.

Here now. Hi everyone.

The Xiao bombshell is huge. I feel kind of foolish for this, but it didn't occur to me that the CO was likely dead until this phase. On the one hand I am very bothered by the fact that the wolves tracked down the CO N2, but that also makes me think that it wasn't BDS that made the kill-–it's not impossible, but that seems WAY on the nose for a wolf to be privately told the identity of a wolf and then to turn around and kill that person. But I also don't see how it could be a frame job, since I see an obvious way to have figured out that Xiao was the CO that early. I think a lucky seering N1 on the wolves' part probably makes the most sense.

PMs with N1P2. BDS, the contingency N1P2 mentioned was me.

Spoiler

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 03, 2023, 08:22:36 PMHey N1P2, I have an idea I want to pitch to you.
You didn't confirm this when I asked, but from what you said in the thread, it sounded like you've been talking to both alt accounts on the side. I have a suggestion to make: get the alts to both seer the same person tonight without making it obvious that you're doing so. The goal of this is less to get a trustworthy seering from Waluigi and more to see if there's anyone that the wolves might try to protect. If Luigi comes up with a different seering in the thread than Waluigi on the same player, then that's probably someone for us to go after during Day 2. If either alt (but especially Waluigi) asks who you asked the other alt to seer, make someone else up, go inactive, whatever–just don't let them know that they're seering the same person.
The redirection power could confuse this, but I think there's probably still enough players alive that the wolf team might not yet have figured out who the Chosen One is, so barring an educated guess from them, the redirection power probably won't land to confuse things, though that's not a guarantee by any means. By N3, there will be a lot fewer players and it will become much easier to solve the game.
I think for this plan to work, it would probably have to have another human aware of what happened, since you are probably going to die tonight. Me since I'm suggesting it, for one, and probably whoever's behind TWG Luigi.
I suppose one of the downsides to doing this is that you only get one seering result, and Waluigi might honestly just tell the truth about someone to try to buy back some favor with the human team, but I don't think that that's likely enough to be able to trust that seering.
Thoughts? Any obvious flaws that I'm missing? I don't see flaws as much as a very limited upside, it's not a silver bullet by any means, but I think it has greater than even odds of yielding some actionable intel.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 03, 2023, 08:58:27 PMYup, I have plans in place and although i originally wanted to tell someone else (actually was considering you) what the plan is, i backed out because perhaps just having the sources i have now will be good enough. Who knows, perhaps I'll go in last second before the phase changes and spill all my thoughts to validate what will come in D2.

But it can go either way and I am interested to see how things play out :)
Basically, we will find the CO and a wolf by the start of D2. Townsfolk will just have to believe.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 06:37:47 AMThis all sounds good, but saying "townsfolk will just have to believe" is not at all a guarantee if our only confirmed human is dead. I would strongly recommend leaving everyone with a strong sense of your suspicions and plans before you are wolfed. Basically don't die without making sure your plans will be put into action!

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 08:35:37 AMI have to be conscious of my plan incase anyone out there tries to pull an even faster one on me! But yes i will speak before phase end

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 02:29:00 PMThoughts on Toby or math? They have been targeted a lot this game

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 04, 2023, 03:37:44 PMTargeted a lot? I'm not sure what you're referring to here, honestly. Toby in particular I feel like has slid under the radar for most of the game thus far, and while Math has definitely received some attention, it's been mostly in the context of "lynch an inactive" during D1, and people were treating him as interchangeable with Xiao for that reason. I stand by what I said in the topic, that if Specs wasn't a wolf they're probably my next choice for a pairing.

Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on December 04, 2023, 03:47:40 PMTargeted being a loose term for the center of conversations. Toby is always posting and math barely is lol

[close]

@TWG Luigi a seering could make all the difference here! Please show up!

More to follow

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 12:01:40 PMAlternatively, what you could be saying is that I'm the type of player to deliberately handicap my chances of winning so I can say that I won despite poor odds.

Again, to rephrase it another way:
If I were a wolf and had just played things straight none of your arguments for why I'm suspicious would even be a thing (aside from "hm, well I just think he's too trustworthy"), and I would be in a much better position to launch suspicions against other players.

TheZeldaPianist275 was seered green :)

I feel confident now saying that Toby and TZP aren't wolves together, unless we genuinely believe that Toby's seering was redirected.

Now, to me, the question is who of Toby, THC, and Math are the wolves?

Arguments For/Against Toby being a wolf:
+ His behavior this phase has been especially weird with him strawmaning it up against me to the max. Aside from taking a second look at Math, he hasn't done much else to analyze other people this phase.
+ Possibly intentionally set up the Waluigi slip—he proposed a plan that he stated would have led to us finding out the real human seer, which means he could have intentionally tanked Waluigi's credibility. Makes sense if Toby/THC are the wolves.
+ If Toby/THC are wolves, that explains why Toby was so antsy to figure out which of the seers N1P2 trusted—if N1P2 had up and said he trusted Luigi more, that means THC was unlikely to have been revived.
- I still don't think Toby would let the Waluigi slip happen intentionally.
- I'm not sure if Toby would let THC wolf himself
- The possibility of Toby/Math feels like a weak connection to me.

Similar posts for other players coming soon.

Quote from: TWG Luigi on December 09, 2023, 12:16:27 PMTheZeldaPianist275 was seered green :)

Thanks Xiao!

General thoughts on each individual person:

Toby: I have been unsure and waffley about you the entire game, but I don't think I can afford to hedge that any longer: I think you're acting very wolfy. I disagree with BDS that Toby's misrepresenting BDS' accusations, or making things up out of whole cloth, but he hasn't been a wolf since the start of the revival and his play this game feels distinct from human!Toby. I will probably vote him today unless someone has a convincing explanation for what is going on with the Xiao wolfing/the CO's identity being hidden up until this exact point.
THC: I don't know lmao.
Math: I actually could see the Xiao thing being a potential Math wolf set up. If Math tried to seed doubt in the human alliance by wolfing Xiao off of a lucky seering, and N1P2 didn't take the bait, I think it makes a lot of sense for him to bring this to the table now that he has died to try to stick BDS with a bill.
BDS: Leaning strongly away from seriously considering him now, but I will say that I don't like how a significant amount of his defenses are self-metaing. "I run a tight ship" and all that. If you're aware of your own tendencies enough to point them out to other people, you're aware of them enough to leverage them into wolf play.

Arguments For/Against THC being a wolf:
+ THC is absolutely the type of player to have wolfed himself, not to mention absolutely could have made the Waluigi slip either intentionally or unintentionally.
+ THC could have picked up on Xiao being the CO solely on the fact that N1P2 and I both changed our votes away from Xiao. Remember the Assassin Game where THC was oddly insistent on himself being a ward (which, as it so happened, was actually true) based on very little information. It's not a stretch to think THC would make such an assumption about Xiao and run with it even before getting more concrete proof.
+ As Toby pointed out, hasn't seemed very interested in actually wolfhunting this phase.
+ Placed a vote on Math despite the fact that he should've known the risk of a wolf rush.
- It's hard to say who else would've been ok with THC wolfing himself, unless THC just completely jumped the gun against his partner's wishes.
- Has been defending me this phase despite it seeming to be a potentially popular lynch. Wolf THC would probably run with it or at least be a lot more ambivalent toward it.
- Placed a vote on Math despite the fact that he should've known the risk of a wolf rush (yes, this goes both ways).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 12:29:17 PM- I still don't think Toby would let the Waluigi slip happen intentionally.

Correction: I don't think the Waluigi slip was unintentional if Toby was a wolf. I don't think Toby would have let his partner make an unintentional mistake for similar reasons as myself.

Arguments For/Against Math being a wolf:
+ Originally seemed to be defending me, but suddenly did a 360 and started gaining suspicion on me after both Toby and TZP had expressed doubts about me. Plus, a lot of his current arguments against me feel rather flimsy.
+ If Math/THC is the pairing I think THC absolutely would've gotten away with wolfing himself, as THC would be the "senior" wolf in that pair.
+ TZP/Math as wolves would explain why they were both strongly pushing a Specs lynch (
- Would wolves have claimed they seered Math green when Waluigi's credibility was already shaky? Especially true if Math is the red wolf (I think TZP/Math would be green/red and Math/THC would be green/red as well; naming Math as the seering would be incredibly risky if THC was already dead in a Math/THC pair, and risky as TZP/Math if Math was actually the red wolf).

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 09, 2023, 12:31:50 PMI disagree with BDS that Toby's misrepresenting BDS' accusations, or making things up out of whole cloth

Toby has actively misrepresented this quote of mine twice despite me already explaining it after the first "misunderstanding":

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 07:18:07 AMwith you pushing for N1P2 to release the identity of which TWG account was the legit seer

Based on context clues (especially the word "which") I think it's fairly reasonable to understand that, despite the awkward wording, the meaning of this sentence is "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer."

Toby seems to have taken it to mean "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal the identity of TWG Luigi, the legit seer."

And he did it again despite me explaining it.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 08, 2023, 01:25:07 PMI didn't say that in the post you quoted.
Yes, which is what I said in the post you quoted.
My wording may have been a bit awkward on that. I understand any confusion.

Under the "not true" section here. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439904#msg439904) It is definitely true that Toby asked N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer.

Quote from: TWG Luigi on December 09, 2023, 12:16:27 PMTheZeldaPianist275 was seered green :)

There's less than an hour until the end of the phase; if you have anything you wanna say, it'd be good for us to hear it. Even if ya can't vote, you still should have a say in things.

I still want to vote Toby but at the same time I can't shake the idea of Math being a wolf.

TZP suddenly jumping on the "yes I'm probably gonna vote Toby" train is a bit weird, and especially with him having no thoughts on THC. I don't think a TZP vote is a good idea, especially not today, but TZP/Math could be a possibility based on this.

Phase ends in 45 minutes.

I don't think Toby/Math is a likely pair, especially because Toby's reaction to my "slip" was assuming Math was the CO. There's also the Waluigi PM with the spaced-out question mark (lol), though that's circumstantial evidence and could have easily been faked.

So most likely wolf pairs are:
- Toby/THC
- TZP/Math
- Math/THC

Feeling 70% Toby and 30% Math. Waluigi's Math "seering" just feels odd with either of these pairings (Math as red wolf with TZP/Math and Math as green wolf with dead THC in Math/THC). With ~30 minutes left in the phase I can likely say I'm going to be voting Toby.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on December 09, 2023, 12:51:03 PMToby has actively misrepresented this quote of mine twice despite me already explaining it after the first "misunderstanding":Based on context clues (especially the word "which") I think it's fairly reasonable to understand that, despite the awkward wording, the meaning of this sentence is "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer."

Toby seems to have taken it to mean "Toby pushed for N1P2 to reveal the identity of TWG Luigi, the legit seer."

And he did it again despite me explaining it.Under the "not true" section here. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12830.msg439904#msg439904) It is definitely true that Toby asked N1P2 to reveal which TWG account was the legit seer.

Yeah I did misunderstand what you meant by it due to the awkward wording. I thought you were saying I was pushing N1P2 to reveal the identity of the player behind Luigi

The second time I quoted it was in response to you asking me to quote what I was referencing as 'not true' I could have clarified that it was since cleared up.

I wouldn't say I was actively misrepresenting - I fair enough misunderstood your angle the first time, and the second time was in response to you wanting to know what I had labelled as not true.

-

Im leaning between BDS/math but going to take a look at TZPs posts again to see if anything sticks out to me. THC has been odd this phase and especially by having no fear with placing the first vote I wonder if that was an indication of alignment. THC also feels like a safe choice that if there are 2 wolves alive he could be paired with anyone.

Im slightly leaning BDS over math but will re read his posts and PMs with N1P2 again

It's not sudden BDS

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 07, 2023, 11:45:12 AMThat said, I'm still leaning toward a Toby lynch today. Unless I have REALLY missed something, there's one wolf between Toby and Math, and I think it's more likely to be Toby than Math at this point, given his compatibility with Specs.

As far as not having any thoughts on THC, to be more clear, I don't think anything that THC has done or said is anywhere as noteworthy or suspicious as other events right now, and is kind of unremarkable in that way. I'm open to considering him next day phase but I'm far more concerned with the Math/Toby options right now

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 09, 2023, 01:25:08 PMIt's not sudden BDS
As far as not having any thoughts on THC, to be more clear, I don't think anything that THC has done or said is anywhere as noteworthy or suspicious as other events right now, and is kind of unremarkable in that way. I'm open to considering him next day phase but I'm far more concerned with the Math/Toby options right now

THC literally said he had been reading but didn't have anything to say

And also had no fear about just randomly coming in and voting someone without expressing before hand they were going that way

Don't you think those events are remarkable?

It's almost like he knew there couldn't be a wolf rush or didn't fear it

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on December 09, 2023, 01:25:08 PMIt's not sudden BDS

Fair point regarding Toby.

Phase ends in roughly 15 minutes. I'm curious where everyone else (i.e. THC/Math) is in all this.

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 01:29:04 PMTHC literally said he had been reading but didn't have anything to say

And also had no fear about just randomly coming in and voting someone without expressing before hand they were going that way

Don't you think those events are remarkable?

It's almost like he knew there couldn't be a wolf rush or didn't fear it

That could go either way with THC. I could absolutely see human THC doing that to "prove" Math is a wolf. But at the same time I could see wolf THC doing that to "prove" that Math is a "wolf" (with possibly some degree of reverse-psychology involved if Math actually is a wolf).

THC is a wildcard after all

~10 minutes left in the phase and my wifi is doing is best to crap out at the worst times.

I will place my vote no less than 5 minutes before the end of the phase to ensure my wifi doesn't give me issues.

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 01:29:04 PMTHC literally said he had been reading but didn't have anything to say

And also had no fear about just randomly coming in and voting someone without expressing before hand they were going that way

Don't you think those events are remarkable?

It's almost like he knew there couldn't be a wolf rush or didn't fear it

Yeah that vote wasn't great lol, but that strikes me as far more likely to be a human mistake than a wolf one. If you're a wolf, you vote, and then immediately get pressured to redact it.....why? What's the upside to doing it and then complying? All it shows if you can prove that there wasn't a wolf rush (which is a big if) is that there's a wolf between Math/THC. That seems like a human thing to do--remember Xiao at the end of Just a Numbers' Game?

Why are u taking so long to vote me BDS if you already have ur mind made up

Are u waiting around to wolf rush anything else

Quote from: Toby on December 09, 2023, 01:35:45 PMWhy are u taking so long to vote me BDS if you already have ur mind made up

Are u waiting around to wolf rush anything else

THC and Math are nowhere to be seen. For all I know they could be waiting in the wings to wolf rush.

I'd really like to hear from THC and/or Math, but I don't think that's gonna happen unfortunately.

My vote preferences would go in this order, top to bottom

BDS: I think I've said enough lol
Toby: the Waluigi writing style thing could be a kick in the teeth if it was in front of us and we missed it, so that still bugs me. But I'm conflicted because the green/red reading gives human points from my interpretation, and lately Toby and I have been thinking the same on certain things.
TZP: I think we've been thinking similarly all game. Green seering helps. Hopefully not using that to buddy up and betray me but I think he's got a human mindset
THC: Anyone else and I may dismiss THC for being the N1 wolfing. But I can't. That being said though, I'm not voting THC because I group him similarly to BDS but I have less evidence against him

Well, there's Math.

Toby. Fuck it, we ball.

If the wolf pairings are TZP/Math or Math/THC then congrats I guess

If there's still 2 wolves u better be ready to unvote if a sus one comes in

BDS

Reading back his posts it's not sitting right with me. Even the initial call out of Waluigi could be pre meditated

And most of his defence has been well if I was a wolf I would have done this instead, which I'm not buying

the arguments for me being a wolf is "yes, let's ignore all this stuff that doesn't make sense, but i think bds is a wolf anyway and here's all this stuff that doesn't make sense to prove it"

BDS

I've given my explanation

BDS

nice wolf rush there

y'all could've at least rushed toby

at least toby makes sense as a wolf

its offensive you think I would slip up like that as a wolf

nothing in this game makes sense with me as a wolf

rip humans i guess

TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

Spoiler

Mortals

Wolves

1. Master Wolf
2. Redirection Wolf - During the night, can target a player, either living or dead, and another living player. If the first player is the Chosen One, the Aloof Seer will receive the color of the second player rather than the player targeted by the Aloof Seer. Loses this power once it has been used successfully.

Both wolves have access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role.

Humans

3. Chosen One - Has access to the annonymous TWG account that obtained the Aloof Seer role. Cannot be revived.
4. Sacrifical Lamb - Can revive a dead player other then themselves during the night phase. Single use. Can be used even if the Sacrifical Lamb is dead.
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Herring
9. Miller - Identity will be revealed privately to the wolves at the start of the game.

Divine Beings

1. Aloof Wolf Shaman
2. Aloof Seer - Seers blue players green.

- These two roles will be distributed randomly between the annonymous TWG accounts TWG Luigi and TWG Waluigi.
- Both wolves have access to the account that obtained the Aloof Wolf Shaman role, while the Chosen One as access to the account that obtained the Aloof Seer role.
- Dead players with access to an annonymous account can still partake in the game through the annonymous account that they have access to (they cannot partake with their own account anymore, though).
- Both Divine Beings cannot vote, cannot be lynched, cannot be wolf'd, cannot be targeted by any power, and do not count towards either team (Hence why they are called Aloof). They can use their seering power during the night, post in the topic and send or receive PMs.

Win Conditions

Wolves win at parity.
Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Other rules

N1 start.
No cardflips.
Instakills are enabled, phantoms are in play.
PMs are permitted.
Only living players can be seered.
If the Sacrifical Lamb targets the Chosen One, the power does not go through, but the single use will be retained for a later night phase.

[close]

---

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. Toby
5. Oricorio
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. threalmathguy
9. Nana1Popo2

Substitutes:
1. The Musical Poet

---

Day 3 is over. BDS was lynched.

Wolves win

Postgame up in a little.