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TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 07, 2023, 01:03:42 AMx1 Red Assassin
x1 Blue Assassin
x1 Red Assassin Ward – known to Red Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Blue Assassin Ward – known to Blue Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Red Assassin Cold Target – known to Red Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Cold Target – known to Blue Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Red Assassin Hot Target – not known to Red Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Hot Target – not known to Blue Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x2 Normal Townies

Day Start.
There will be cardflipping.Both Assassins kill every Night.
All Townies except Hot Targets receive an identical "Town" PM.

An Assassin wins when both their Targets and the other Assassin are dead.

The Town wins when both Assassins are dead.

Note that "leaving the game" is equivalent to death.

Living Players

1. A# Minor
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. XiaoMigros
5. TheZeldaPianist275
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. The Musical Poet
8. therealmathguy
9. davy
10. Toby
---
S1.
S2.

GAME WILL START SHORTLY
**DO NOT POST**

All Role PMs are out!
**YOU MAY NOW POST**

Day 0 will end at 12AM (Midnight) US Central on September 24 if there is an absolute majority vote, September 25 otherwise. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/fall?iso=20230925T00&p0=64&msg=Day+0+Latest&font=cursive)

noice!


also, inb4 poet gets here

lol I'm late.

but the game just started like 10 minutes ago


anyways, are you a wolf

*assassin


XD

Doesn't that question slightly leak information about who you are? Also, I will not be answering that question.

lol

if I was the wolf (idc at this point), I wouldn't be asking that XD

How would I know? Also, if that was the case, then you would be a potential target.

Yup. Welp, we'll see if I'm a cold target or not during the night phase  :-\

Info noted.

bruh

I could be a ward though :D

Possibly, that would be quite nice if that was the case.

Phew, glad to see I'm not an assassin. Would really suck to die because ones corresponding ward gets randomly lynched or assassinated or if one assassin gets assassinated by the other one.

Not much else to say at the moment as work is going to start soon, but I'll check in again during my lunch break.

I had looked through the guide and I haven't found the answer. What is a ward exactly?

If the ward dies, the assassin with the same color will die. So blue ward kills the blue assassin, and the red ward kills the red assassin. Am I the only one who thinks of this as a brutal human?

jeez, my grammar is awful

ooh. So if you were to commit seppuku or something, you would technically be a suicide murder, or just get a double kill.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 AMooh. So if you were to get yourself lynched or something, you would technically be a suicide murder, or just get a double kill.

Yup, exactly. Should we encourage people to kill themselves to see if they're the ward?

Ah yes, great idea. We definitely won't get in trouble telling people to kys.

Definitely not. But the wolves assassins would be really upset if we did that.

well who cares what they think.

actually I was being sarcastic. They would love if we just started killing random humans for them

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 22, 2023, 12:21:02 AMwell who cares what they think.

we do

Well, I don't >:>

oof


my post may have been read wrong but I don't feel like explaining right now


also we're on a second page in just over an hour? noice

lol

Hopefully the assassins kill each other and we win

Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 02:45:03 AMHopefully the assassins kill each other and we win

As I said in player sign-ups, the most hilarious ending with be the game ending with three human deaths (human lynch this phase and both wards killed during the night :P).

Lively game so far!!

For those of you who haven't played a day start game, they're a completely different beast than night start games. Votes are inevitably thrown out with a lot more flimsy reasoning than they'd usually be—because obviously there's not a ton of reasoning to go on other than feelings. I'm gonna wait until some more people post, but I anticipate that once that happens I'll be making my vote right away.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 07, 2023, 01:03:42 AMAssassin's Gambit (10p)
x1 Red Assassin
x1 Blue Assassin
x1 Red Assassin Ward – known to Red Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Blue Assassin Ward – known to Blue Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Red Assassin Cold Target – known to Red Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Cold Target – known to Blue Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Red Assassin Hot Target – not known to Red Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Hot Target – not known to Blue Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x2 Normal Townies

So let's see.

There are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

Therefore, I suggest that all players that were told they were normal humans do not focus on defending themselves, and to go down without kicking and screaming if the lynch is turning towards them. The Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

Thoughts?

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 03:34:26 AMThere are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

This is certainly a very interesting game. In some ways it feels a bit town-sided (then again, like last game, that may be deceptively so), but at the same time, an assassin can win by only having three people dead if they get incredibly lucky (and if they get super duper lucky they also have the possibility of winning by the end of N1!!!).

QuoteTherefore, I suggest that all players that were told they were normal humans do not focus on defending themselves, and to go down without kicking and screaming if the lynch is turning towards them. The Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

I get where you're coming from, but I'm not sure that's the optimal strategy. The assassins want us to lynch the hot/cold targets so they don't have to try and night kill them. Ideally, our lynches would try to hit either the assassins or the wards as that's the fastest way to guarantee a win. Plus, if only certain players are "told" to defend themselves, that just benefits the assassins more than it benefits town, both with giving the assassins more information (if someone defends themselves, then it means they're probably a hot target or another assassin), and making it easier for them to push lynches the way they want to.

In other words, the only truly beneficial human deaths for town are the ward deaths. A normal townie death is mostly neutral (though still kinda disadvantageous because it narrows down the kill selection for the assassins and gives us less votes to work with).

Now that I think about it a little more, a possible alternative to your strategy would be that the hot targets claim (not which hot target they are, just that they are a hot target) if, and only if, they're becoming the majority lynch target. It gives the assassins a guaranteed kill toward their victory condition, yeah, but it means we don't waste a lynch on them and have the opportunity to lynch a better option. Still kinda risky and not ideal, but better than handing the assassins their victory condition on a silver platter (they gotta work for it, dammit!!! :P).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 03:46:25 AMIdeally, our lynches would try to hit either the assassins or the wards as that's the fastest way to guarantee a win.

Wards do not know who they are, so the only way town can attempt to lynch them is if the assassins slips up, in which case we should lynch the assassin anyway.

Also, I'm pretty sure that "just lynch the wolves" is the ideal strategy in any TWG.

QuotePlus, if only certain players are "told" to defend themselves, that just benefits the assassins more than it benefits town, both with giving the assassins more information (if someone defends themselves, then it means they're probably a hot target or another assassin), and making it easier for them to push lynches the way they want to.

What you say is correct, but is not what I was suggesting. There is a difference between certain players being told to defend themselves (your words), and all other players being told not to defend themselves (my words). The way I said it, a Hot Target may still opt to not defend him/herself or opt to defend him or herself anyway. And I just realised I should probably stop talking about any benifit or detriment of doing one or the other at least in topic to give the assassins as little information about what the Hot Targets may or may not do. Regardless my point that the 'normal townies' shouldn't defend themselves still stands.

Ninja'd

I'll get to your last post next, BDS, but first:

In an ideal scenario we would find a player that we all agree on is most likely human and have the hot targets claim to them. Then that player could chose the lynch targets to make sure we never hit the hot targets as long as that player is still alive.

If the player we chose is an assassin, this blows up in our face and we will lose the game, but it is something we've pulled of before on NSM (can't quite find the game again, but maybe someone else can), so it is not completely impossible.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 03:57:12 AMIn other words, the only truly beneficial human deaths for town are the ward deaths. A normal townie death is mostly neutral (though still kinda disadvantageous because it narrows down the kill selection for the assassins and gives us less votes to work with).

It also narrows down the number of players that could possibly be assassin or ward. And while the game is ongoing, each assassin will never be able to outvote their ward and their remaining target, so having less votes should never become an issue.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 03:57:12 AMNow that I think about it a little more, a possible alternative to your strategy would be that the hot targets claim (not which hot target they are, just that they are a hot target) if, and only if, they're becoming the majority lynch target. It gives the assassins a guaranteed kill toward their victory condition, yeah, but it means we don't waste a lynch on them and have the opportunity to lynch a better option. Still kinda risky and not ideal, but better than handing the assassins their victory condition on a silver platter (they gotta work for it, dammit!!! :P).

Don't feel like discussing this any further where both assassins can see this, so I'll continue in PMs

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 03:59:49 AMWards do not know who they are, so the only way town can attempt to lynch them is if the assassins slips up, in which case we should lynch the assassin anyway.

The only way town can lynch them deliberately.

QuoteAlso, I'm pretty sure that "just lynch the wolves" is the ideal strategy in any TWG.

You're suggesting that players on the lynch docket shouldn't try to defend themselves. I'm saying that makes it more likely for us to not lynch the assassins. Using your strategy we're much more likely to hit a non-assassin, non-ward—people being able to defend themselves as normal would go a long way toward potentially directing lynches toward better targets.

QuoteWhat you say is correct, but is not what I was suggesting. There is a difference between certain players being told to defend themselves (your words), and all other players being told not to defend themselves (my words). The way I said it, a Hot Target may still opt to not defend him/herself or opt to defend him or herself anyway. And I just realised I should probably stop talking about any benifit or detriment of doing one or the other at least in topic to give the assassins as little information about what the Hot Targets may or may not do. Regardless my point that the 'normal townies' shouldn't defend themselves still stands.

I put "told" in quotes for a reason. You explicitly said this in your post (emphasis mine):

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 03:34:26 AMThe Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

There's very little reason the hot targets wouldn't defend themselves.

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 04:03:10 AMIn an ideal scenario we would find a player that we all agree on is most likely human and have the hot targets claim to them. Then that player could chose the lynch targets to make sure we never hit the hot targets as long as that player is still alive.

If the player we chose is an assassin, this blows up in our face and we will lose the game, but it is something we've pulled of before on NSM (can't quite find the game again, but maybe someone else can), so it is not completely impossible.

I feel like this post is a bit of a red herring. There aren't any obvious roles to claim to in the first place—that's really the only way claiming strategies are viable.

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 04:06:39 AMIt also narrows down the number of players that could possibly be assassin or ward. And while the game is ongoing, each assassin will never be able to outvote their ward and their remaining target, so having less votes should never become an issue.

I think you're forgetting something: the assassins have their own nightkill guaranteed to them, and also have the possibility of getting control of the lynch if they're sufficiently persuasive enough. Town only has the possibility of control over the lynch. It's not about the assassin begin able to strictly outvote remaining players, it's that the assassin has less people they need to convince to sway the lynch the way they want to. Narrowing down the number of players remaining works more in the assassins' favor than it does town's.

Big post incomming, but before that I'd like to say that I've really been enjoying the discussion so far.

The only role to claim is Hot Target. Cold Targets and Wards don't know who they are.

I'm trying to think of the pro/cons for claiming Hot Target, but without the color assignment. Unless a Cold Target is lynched on Day 1, the Assassins will likely kill their respective Cold Targets on Night 1. That leaves us Day 1 and Day 2 to try and figure things out before the Hots are potentially targeted on Night 2. Even still, it's not a guarantee that the Assassins will even target the Hots if they aren't sure which color they are.

That all being said, the point of the Hot Target is to be unknown to the Assassins. Why blow that advantage? The only missing information for the Assassins' win condition would be the other Assassin's identity.

I don't think its worth it to claim Hot Target.

Hot targets shouldn't claim unless they're about to be lynched.

Also, to pre-empt Davy's big post, right now I kinda feel 50/50 about Davy. His initial suggestion was fairly normal and not out of the ordinary (see: Toby's strategy post from last game for similar behavior from a human) but I don't really like how he seemingly doubled down on it and adopted more of an accusatory tone (and switching over to PM was pretty weird and not entirely necessary, imo). I'll wait to see the contents of the big post before making more of a judgment—and I hope to see more people posting before that time too.

Showing every part of the post even if I have nothing to say about it to make clear that I'm not skipping anything (in case you are wondering).

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 04:21:06 AMThe only way town can lynch them deliberately.

Doesn't seem like a productive point to discuss about, so I won't make further comments on it.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 04:21:06 AMYou're suggesting that players on the lynch docket shouldn't try to defend themselves. I'm saying that makes it more likely for us to not lynch the assassins. Using your strategy we're much more likely to hit a non-assassin, non-ward—people being able to defend themselves as normal would go a long way toward potentially directing lynches toward better targets.

Care to elaborate? Do you think non-assassin players would be better at directing the lynch to an assassin by defending themselves than an assassin redirecting the lynch to a non-assassin by defending themselves? Right now I do not see how.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 04:21:06 AMI put "told" in quotes for a reason. You explicitly said this in your post (emphasis mine):
There's very little reason the hot targets wouldn't defend themselves.

Response in PM.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 04:21:06 AMI feel like this post is a bit of a red herring. There aren't any obvious roles to claim to in the first place—that's really the only way claiming strategies are viable.

Emphasis on "ideal scenario" and "not completely impossible".

---

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 04:21:06 AMI think you're forgetting something: the assassins have their own nightkill guaranteed to them, and also have the possibility of getting control of the lynch if they're sufficiently persuasive enough. Town only has the possibility of control over the lynch. It's not about the assassin begin able to strictly outvote remaining players, it's that the assassin has less people they need to convince to sway the lynch the way they want to. Narrowing down the number of players remaining works more in the assassins' favor than it does town's.

Going back and forth about how to respond to this as it risks suggesting assassin strategy, which I want to avoid, so I'll keep it at this:

Firstly, one of the assassins will die, since there is no victory condition with both assassins alive.

Say we get a day phase end state of:

Assassin
Ward
Target

The assassin can only win by convincing the Ward to vote for the target. The ward, knowing he is town but not knowing the roles of the other two, should push for a lynch of either of the other two and so should the target. If the assassin is only trying to convince the Ward to vote for the target, he exposes himself and will get lynched. If the assassin also tries to convince the target to vote for the ward, he risks succeeding and losing anyway.

So, having only three players remaining is to the detriment of the assassin. With more players it becomes easier for the assassin to guard his Ward without arousing suspicion.

I did some calculating what outcome was most likely if we get to a day phase end state where the only target left is the hot target and it cannot be found by the assassin by POE, but concluded that the calculations were going to be too hard for me to figure it out, so I admit I'm unsure if in that case it is better to have many town or few town.

---

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 22, 2023, 06:28:02 AMThat all being said, the point of the Hot Target is to be unknown to the Assassins. Why blow that advantage? The only missing information for the Assassins' win condition would be the other Assassin's identity.

I don't think its worth it to claim Hot Target.

Agreed that the Hot Targets shouldn't publicly claim.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 22, 2023, 06:28:02 AMUnless a Cold Target is lynched on Day 1, the Assassins will likely kill their respective Cold Targets on Night 1. That leaves us Day 1 and Day 2 to try and figure things out before the Hots are potentially targeted on Night 2. Even still, it's not a guarantee that the Assassins will even target the Hots if they aren't sure which color they are.

I suggest that there should not be discussion about Assassin strategy in the topic, as it can help them form their plans.

posting to say I'm awake and will catch up with all these posts soon

Checking in on my lunch break. Swear I'm not a wolf this time. Kai, are cardflips just the color of the person killed, or do they say the explicit role of the deceased?

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 03:34:26 AMThere are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

Want to reply to this part of Davy's opening arguments. It is true that only 1 in 3 "normal" human deaths progresses the game toward a wolf victory, but to better evaluate the risk profile of lynches, we should be weighting the different outcomes, not just relying on probability of a certain outcome.

A ward is lynched: Humans are greatly benefitted, one wolf team is greatly harmed, one wolf team is slightly helped
A regular townie is lynched: Humans are slightly harmed, both wolf teams are slightly helped
A cold target is lynched: Humans are moderately harmed, one wolf team is moderately harmed, one wolf team is greatly benefitted

So I think that it's probably true that lynching a ward is more helpful to the humans than lynching a cold target is helpful to the wolves, despite the fact that they have an equal chance of happening. For the finance bros in the crowd, it's the difference between returns and risk-adjusted returns.

Of course, the profile of the game changes significantly after this, because one assassin team being down strengthens the other one comparatively. So lynching a ward changes the calculation. I think Davy's point holds water though.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 21, 2023, 11:29:58 PMDoesn't that question slightly leak information about who you are? Also, I will not be answering that question.

Also, wanted to comment on this. Poet, the premise of TWG involves lying to each other, so no, A# wasn't giving anything away with that question. Because it's in everyone's best interest to pretend to be a human, you expect someone to claim to be a human either explicitly or implicitly, regardless of whether they actually are.

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 08:13:02 AMCare to elaborate? Do you think non-assassin players would be better at directing the lynch to an assassin by defending themselves than an assassin redirecting the lynch to a non-assassin by defending themselves? Right now I do not see how.

Given my extensive experience in TWG, I'm inclined to say it's more reliable than the alternative you're suggesting. Even if the mechanics of this game are different from a normal game, the lynching process still works fundamentally the same. As I said before, I can understand where your initial thought process originated from, but at the end of the day I feel that if you wouldn't suggest this tactic in a regular TWG, it also wouldn't apply in this game.

QuoteEmphasis on "ideal scenario" and "not completely impossible".

Sure, but I don't think it would ever become a possibility in this game.

QuoteFirstly, one of the assassins will die, since there is no victory condition with both assassins alive.

Say we get a day phase end state of:

Spoilered to reduce wallpost size

Assassin
Ward
Target

The assassin can only win by convincing the Ward to vote for the target. The ward, knowing he is town but not knowing the roles of the other two, should push for a lynch of either of the other two and so should the target. If the assassin is only trying to convince the Ward to vote for the target, he exposes himself and will get lynched. If the assassin also tries to convince the target to vote for the ward, he risks succeeding and losing anyway.

So, having only three players remaining is to the detriment of the assassin. With more players it becomes easier for the assassin to guard his Ward without arousing suspicion.

I did some calculating what outcome was most likely if we get to a day phase end state where the only target left is the hot target and it cannot be found by the assassin by POE, but concluded that the calculations were going to be too hard for me to figure it out, so I admit I'm unsure if in that case it is better to have many town or few town.

[close]

If the end state is three players. With 10 players and 3 kills per day/night cycle, it's entirely possible the day phase end state could be, for example, two assassins and two wards left, in which case it's a guaranteed human loss no matter who's lynched. It's also possible for there to be a 5+ player MYLO with one assassin and one of their targets left.

Realistically, the faster the game is over, the better chances we have. The longer the game goes on, the more chances one of the assassins has to win. At least, that's how I see things playing out.

Sorta feels like you're either tunnel visioning here, or deliberately throwing out another red herring (either as a distraction or, more favorably, a deliberate test).

QuoteI suggest that there should not be discussion about Assassin strategy in the topic, as it can help them form their plans.

As with before, I understand where you're coming from, and I've generally tried to avoid being explicit about the topic thus far as a precaution, at least until we've all come to a consensus about whether it's something worth discussing. At the same time, I feel like it also helps if town as a whole can potentially anticipate assassin strategies—if every possibility is on the table for all parties to see, then it'll likely be easier to suss out the assassin if they follow one of those strategies. If one or both assassins are experienced players (which I think would include you, me, THC, TZP, and Toby), I feel like not talking about it publicly would be wholly disadvantageous to town, since an experienced player would likely be able to devise such strategies on their own regardless.

Good to have a third pair of eyes go over my idea. I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks of it as well.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 11:45:58 AMA regular townie is lynched: Humans are slightly harmed, both wolf teams are slightly helped

I'd like to hear your reasoning for this. As I see it, regular townie does not count towards the wolf victory condition and both the pool of potential wolves/wards and target shrinks. Fewer votes will be cast by townies, but I think this matters little since townies can't really coordinate votes anyways (because they don't know which other players are townies and which aren't).

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 11:45:58 AMOf course, the profile of the game changes significantly after this, because one assassin team being down strengthens the other one comparatively. So lynching a ward changes the calculation. I think Davy's point holds water though.

Yeah, that's a really cool thing about this game: every death changes the make-up of the remaining player base by a signifigant enough amount that it will require a slight strategy shift from all teams.

a lot of talk

i dont see any benefit to anyone claiming. Only a human hot target knows their role so I guess they can claim their human role if they are pressured too much for a lynch, would at least buy them a phase but I don't see point in claiming for any other reason.

So much speculation happening and I don't see how Davy can try co-ordinate how late game might look given how unpredictable this game looks like it could be for 2 night kills and brutal humans

I'll toss my light vote on TZP as a placeholder hunch

Working on a reply to BDS, but seeing how I just got ninja'd, I'll quickly reply to Toby:

Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 12:09:52 PMSo much speculation happening and I don't see how Davy can try co-ordinate how late game might look given how unpredictable this game looks like it could be for 2 night kills and brutal humans

That was an example, not a prediction or something I was trying to co-ordinate. The question under discussion was whether normal towny deaths were more benificial for the assassins or for town, and the example was showing that a situation with few players is detrimental to the assassins

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 11:45:58 AMSwear I'm not a wolf this time.

sus

QuoteKai, are cardflips just the color of the person killed, or do they say the explicit role of the deceased?

Good idea of thinking for this question.

QuoteWant to reply to this part of Davy's opening arguments. It is true that only 1 in 3 "normal" human deaths progresses the game toward a wolf victory, but to better evaluate the risk profile of lynches, we should be weighting the different outcomes, not just relying on probability of a certain outcome.

A ward is lynched: Humans are greatly benefitted, one wolf team is greatly harmed, one wolf team is slightly helped
A regular townie is lynched: Humans are slightly harmed, both wolf teams are slightly helped
A cold target is lynched: Humans are moderately harmed, one wolf team is moderately harmed, one wolf team is greatly benefitted

So I think that it's probably true that lynching a ward is more helpful to the humans than lynching a cold target is helpful to the wolves, despite the fact that they have an equal chance of happening. For the finance bros in the crowd, it's the difference between returns and risk-adjusted returns.

Of course, the profile of the game changes significantly after this, because one assassin team being down strengthens the other one comparatively. So lynching a ward changes the calculation. I think Davy's point holds water though.

TZP coming in strong with this analysis. I like it. I disagree with the ward lynching evaluation though; I'd say one wolf team is greatly helped, since the wolf needs to kill the opposing assassin anyway—a human and an assassin being killed gives them one more check off their win condition and two less potential picks for their hot target.

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 12:16:11 PMThat was an example, not a prediction or something I was trying to co-ordinate. The question under discussion was whether normal towny deaths were more benificial for the assassins or for town, and the example was showing that a situation with few players is detrimental to the assassins

I dont see how it really matters to humans considering all the humans apart from the hot targets just think their normal human anyway. And we don't want the hot targets to die.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 PMGiven my extensive experience in TWG, I'm inclined to say it's more reliable than the alternative you're suggesting. Even if the mechanics of this game are different from a normal game, the lynching process still works fundamentally the same. As I said before, I can understand where your initial thought process originated from, but at the end of the day I feel that if you wouldn't suggest this tactic in a regular TWG, it also wouldn't apply in this game.

Agree to disagree

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 PMSure, but I don't think it would ever become a possibility in this game.

Makes sense, I'm not having any high hopes of it happening either.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 PMIf the end state is three players. With 10 players and 3 kills per day/night cycle, it's entirely possible the day phase end state could be, for example, two assassins and two wards left, in which case it's a guaranteed human loss no matter who's lynched. It's also possible for there to be a 5+ player MYLO with one assassin and one of their targets left.

I mean, I was considering working out different end states, but scrapped that due to me diving into assassin strategy. But to dive into your examples:

• Two assassins two wards end state is possible, but - as every phase cycle there are two kills (a lynch and an opposite assassination) that have four targets that result in an assassin death - I find that quite the unlikely outcome.
• 5 player LYLO is quite a lot more likely with normal townies alive then without, so al the more reason not to worry about lynching them

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 PMRealistically, the faster the game is over, the better chances we have. The longer the game goes on, the more chances one of the assassins has to win. At least, that's how I see things playing out.

Maybe I'm taking your first sentence too literal now, but when the game is over (wether fast or slowly) our chances of winning ar 100% or 0%.
The chances of any team winning this game is very dependant on the make-up of the remaining players. The way I see it having a townie be lynched increases the chance of a favorable end game state for town. I'd like to hear everyone else's opinion about that, though.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:06:28 PMAs with before, I understand where you're coming from, and I've generally tried to avoid being explicit about the topic thus far as a precaution, at least until we've all come to a consensus about whether it's something worth discussing. At the same time, I feel like it also helps if town as a whole can potentially anticipate assassin strategies—if every possibility is on the table for all parties to see, then it'll likely be easier to suss out the assassin if they follow one of those strategies. If one or both assassins are experienced players (which I think would include you, me, THC, TZP, and Toby), I feel like not talking about it publicly would be wholly disadvantageous to town, since an experienced player would likely be able to devise such strategies on their own regardless.

I don't really see what benifit town has from anticipating wolfings, there are no town actions at night that could be used for that benifit. On the other hand, I think it is very important to discuss assassin strategies after they have played out as the assassin can't change their action anymore and town can learn a lot from what the assassins chose to do.

Optimal assassin play is quite complicated this game I feel like. If I were an assassin I would very much welcome any information that town has already thought out for me so I won't have to figure that out myself.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 12:17:29 PMTZP coming in strong with this analysis. I like it. I disagree with the ward lynching evaluation though; I'd say one wolf team is greatly helped, since the wolf needs to kill the opposing assassin anyway—a human and an assassin being killed gives them one more check off their win condition and two less potential picks for their hot target.

I think the benifit for humans is still greater than for the other assassin, though. Humans get the first their two win cons, with the other one still having two targets to go down, whereas the other assassin potentially (or certainly if it happens day 0) has his cold target still remaining alongside the hot target, the latter of which only having themself as a target to go down, but with both a lynch and an assassin to get rid of it.
Typing it out like this, it does seem closer than I initially gave credit for.

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 12:40:00 PMAgree to disagree

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

QuoteI mean, I was considering working out different end states, but scrapped that due to me diving into assassin strategy. But to dive into your examples:

• Two assassins two wards end state is possible, but - as every phase cycle there are two kills (a lynch and an opposite assassination) that have four targets that result in an assassin death - I find that quite the unlikely outcome.
• 5 player LYLO is quite a lot more likely with normal townies alive then without, so al the more reason not to worry about lynching them

Saying "eh, it's unlikely" doesn't exactly give me confidence in your plan. Or you.

davy

I'm the type of player to try and take all possibilities into account (or, I should say, give all foreseeable possibilities a fair evaluation before discarding them), no matter how unlikely—because if you simply disregard a possibility as "unlikely," it will completely blindside you if it comes to pass. The fact that you seem to be doing exactly the opposite doesn't sit well with me.

QuoteMaybe I'm taking your first sentence too literal now, but when the game is over (wether fast or slowly) our chances of winning ar 100% or 0%.
The chances of any team winning this game is very dependant on the make-up of the remaining players. The way I see it having a townie be lynched increases the chance of a favorable end game state for town. I'd like to hear everyone else's opinion about that, though.

Bold statement is true, but an early win is much more likely to be town-favored than assassin-favored. Town only needs to have two people dead, whereas each assassin needs to have three people dead. The former is much more likely to happen earlier, while the latter gets more likely of being a realistic possibility the longer the game goes on.

QuoteI don't really see what benifit town has from anticipating wolfings

Not sure what you mean by this. I never said anything about anticipating wolfings specifically.

QuoteOn the other hand, I think it is very important to discuss assassin strategies after they have played out as the assassin can't change their action anymore and town can learn a lot from what the assassins chose to do.

I don't think we'll get much of a chance to discuss assassin strategies after they've played out, as if they've played out we likely wouldn't know about them in most circumstances (this could be dependent on the answer to TZP's question).

QuoteOptimal assassin play is quite complicated this game I feel like. If I were an assassin I would very much welcome any information that town has already thought out for me so I won't have to figure that out myself.

Subjective. At the end of the day it depends highly on who the assassins are. If all five of the players I mentioned are town, then I 100% agree with you. Given that we can't know that at this point of the game (:P) I'm inclined to agree with holding off on discussing assassin strategies unless most of us feel like it's worth doing.

QuoteI think the benifit for humans is still greater than for the other assassin, though. Humans get the first their two win cons, with the other one still having two targets to go down, whereas the other assassin potentially (or certainly if it happens day 0) has his cold target still remaining alongside the hot target, the latter of which only having themself as a target to go down, but with both a lynch and an assassin to get rid of it.
Typing it out like this, it does seem closer than I initially gave credit for.

That makes sense, but at the same time, one assassin being dead basically turns the game into a manhunt with slightly more favorable win conditions for the wolf than a usual manhunt. From the perspective of an experienced TWG player (I specifically recall my experience as third party in Maestro's Relax, I'm a Doctor game for an example of an assassin-esque role in action) I trust the remaining assassin with 2 kills left to win more than I trust humans with 1 kill left to win.

Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 12:23:54 PMI dont see how it really matters to humans considering all the humans apart from the hot targets just think their normal human anyway. And we don't want the hot targets to die.

Did you read the strategy I proposed? Feel like I'd just be repeating myself if I'd attempt to rebut this directly...

---

Also to clarify: not defending yourself does not mean you can't push for a different lynch in my book, so a player under fire can still try to get a different lynch going.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 01:03:52 PMBold statement is true, but an early win is much more likely to be town-favored than assassin-favored. Town only needs to have two people dead, whereas each assassin needs to have three people dead. The former is much more likely to happen earlier, while the latter gets more likely of being a realistic possibility the longer the game goes on.

Both town and assassin can win night one. Obviously not going to post the requirements for an assassin night 1 win, they can figure that out themselves.

Okay, we are comparing four things, so it's important to know what we are comparing against. Bold is what I think is favored.

Early town:early wolf
Early town:late wolf
Early town:late town
Late town:early wolf
Late town:late wolf
Early wolf:late wolf

Late wins are more likely than early wins, I feel that much should be obvious.
Early town only needs two correct kills whereas early wolf needs three. Favored for early town.
Late wolf needs to keep two players alive and kill one, but has two chances to kill that one. I feel like this is favored for late town, but it's closer than early v early.

So all in all I will cede that getting to the late game improves the assassins chances of winning by more than the increase from town. So humans are slightly hurt from losing a towny, but it only feels very slightly to me. Still think it's worth going for my strategy, but it does seem less worth it now.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 01:03:52 PMNot sure what you mean by this. I never said anything about anticipating wolfings specifically.

Ah, I jumped the gun there. In addition to wolfing strategies there are also lynching strategies. I think those could be fine to discuss during the day phase where they are happening, but I would still approach it with caution.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 01:03:52 PMI don't think we'll get much of a chance to discuss assassin strategies after they've played out, as if they've played out we likely wouldn't know about them in most circumstances (this could be dependent on the answer to TZP's question).

Right, this was assuming card flips show the entire card, not just the color.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 01:03:52 PMThat makes sense, but at the same time, one assassin being dead basically turns the game into a manhunt with slightly more favorable win conditions for the wolf than a usual manhunt. From the perspective of an experienced TWG player (I specifically recall my experience as third party in Maestro's Relax, I'm a Doctor game for an example of an assassin-esque role in action) I trust the remaining assassin with 2 kills left to win more than I trust humans with 1 kill left to win.

Not quite, the town win con is considerably more favorable than in a normal man hunt as the one kill needed to be made can be made on two players. This changes the math by a significant enough amount that I trust the humans more than the assassin in that scenario.

And with that, I'm going to sleep. See you tomorrow everyone!

checking in damn a lot happened, hold on

 :o

this convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw

leaning BDS tho

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 01:30:51 PMBoth town and assassin can win night one. Obviously not going to post the requirements for an assassin night 1 win, they can figure that out themselves.

Okay, we are comparing four things, so it's important to know what we are comparing against. Bold is what I think is favored.

Spoilered to mitigate wallpost

Early town:early wolf
Early town:late wolf
Early town:late town
Late town:early wolf
Late town:late wolf
Early wolf:late wolf

Late wins are more likely than early wins, I feel that much should be obvious.
Early town only needs two correct kills whereas early wolf needs three. Favored for early town.
Late wolf needs to keep two players alive and kill one, but has two chances to kill that one. I feel like this is favored for late town, but it's closer than early v early.

So all in all I will cede that getting to the late game improves the assassins chances of winning by more than the increase from town. So humans are slightly hurt from losing a towny, but it only feels very slightly to me. Still think it's worth going for my strategy, but it does seem less worth it now.

[close]

Overall if we get full role cardflips, I think that eliminates any potential advantage your plan could potentially have (I still think it's much more risky and much less beneficial regardless). As I mentioned to you in PM, you still have to factor in the assassins' ability to use their deduction skills to specifically target players they think are more likely to be their wincon targets.

QuoteNot quite, the town win con is considerably more favorable than in a normal man hunt as the one kill needed to be made can be made on two players. This changes the math by a significant enough amount that I trust the humans more than the assassin in that scenario.

Good point (I derped and forgot about the ward for a moment), but the wolf's chances are also higher than a usual manhunt since they don't need parity.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 02:07:31 PMthis convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw

??? ??? ??? ??? ???

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 02:13:56 PMleaning BDS tho

Mind sharing your reasoning with everyone else?

I especially want to hear from you (last game you established a reputation as a wildcard player so I absolutely wanna try to get a grip on you earlier rather than later), A#, and THC . If you don't have time to reply with more substantial thoughts until tomorrow, I get that, but I know A# is around.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 08:21:56 AMposting to say I'm awake and will catch up with all these posts soon

Any progress?

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 01:58:42 PM:o

this is not a satisfactory response

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:53:01 PMthis is not a satisfactory response

From now on this play shall be known as "breakfast analysis". I have spoken.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 02:07:31 PMthis convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw

thats my thoughts too

Quote from: davy on September 21, 2023, 11:56:00 PMPhew, glad to see I'm not an assassin. Would really suck to die because ones corresponding ward gets randomly lynched or assassinated or if one assassin gets assassinated by the other one.

Not much else to say at the moment as work is going to start soon, but I'll check in again during my lunch break.

Also, I'd like to draw attention to the bolded part of davy's first post. Emphasizing "hey, I'm not a wolf!" is a strategy commonly employed by wolves (or humans who don't realize how wolfy it makes them look to anyone who sees through it), especially when they perceive enough remaining players as being susceptible enough to believe it. Given how many new or new-ish players are part of this game, I wouldn't entirely put it past davy to try something like that.

Granted, it is a first post, and we may have to take those with a little bit more of a grain of salt than posts later in the game.

Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 03:07:13 PMthats my thoughts too

y'all better start digesting

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:48:51 PM??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Mind sharing your reasoning with everyone else?

- Immediately attacking the strategy of not defending oneself when accused
- being aggressive (so you can use this play style to your defense later), seems too out of the playbook

To sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

also toby your pfp looks lkke a tooth

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 03:11:43 PM- Immediately attacking the strategy of not defending oneself when accused

Yes, because I don't believe it's an optimal strat. Why would I not call out a strat I don't believe is beneficial?

Quote- being aggressive (so you can use this play style to your defense later), seems too out of the playbook

Read my first two posts that were part of the me/davy discussion, #33 and #34. Compare that to my next post, #38. My initial reaction to davy's suggestion was much more tame. I only started getting more aggressive once I felt davy was doubling down on it in an accusatory manner (which I pointed out in post #41) rather than expressing a genuine interest in discussing the potential viability of the strategy he suggested.

I feel like davy has only started to fold after my aggressive response, so I fully stand by that.

ok I vote davy

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 03:22:02 PMok I vote davy

I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on the discussion itself irrespective of davy and me (though, as I said before, it can wait until tomorrow if you're too tired to think properly :P).

Or, any quick/brief thoughts about things other than the discussion?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:53:01 PMAny progress?

yeah, I just don't have anything much to say about it because I don't understand where you're getting these ideas from

Quotethis is not a satisfactory response

:(

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 02:57:50 PMFrom now on this play shall be known as "breakfast analysis". I have spoken.

nice

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 03:13:57 PMTo sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1) I don't see why. I get it will have the wolves focused on specific targets to wolf, and there's a chance they could both target the same person and waste a kill, but it also removes the chance that they try kill themselves or even kill the opposing ward

2)I don't think you're able to reliable enforce this because there will be reverse psychology from the assasins but also its natural instinct for a human to defend themselves because they'll have their own opinion on who is a better lynch. There's not really anyway to enforce this because people are going to push their own suspicions regardless and re directing is a form of defense. you cant just expect people to be silent and give up once they get voted just because theyre town

1. A# Minor: posted
2. BlackDragonSlayer: posted (substantial)
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: not posted
4. XiaoMigros: posted (semi-substantial)
5. TheZeldaPianist275: posted (substantial)
6. SpecsFlyer17: posted (semi-substantial)
7. The Musical Poet: posted
8. therealmathguy: not posted
9. davy: posted (substantial)
10. Toby: posted (semi-substantial)

Quick rundown of how I would judge player activity up until this point (comparatively speaking). I think THC is usually more active overnight (IIRC, he's North America-based but works the night shift), but I could give him a heads-up on Discord if Kai wants me to. If TZP or Specs could make sure Mr. Math knows the game has begun, that would be much appreciated. :P

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 03:28:43 PMyeah, I just don't have anything much to say about it because I don't understand where you're getting these ideas from

I get that; both davy and I have a lot of TWG history to draw upon to form our thoughts. Anything specific I can potentially clarify for you?

I will be catching up on this after I finish my work. And hopefully I will be able to respond in time.

Alright, catching up on today's posts. I'm on a work trip in Pacific time zone (USA) so the people east of hear will likely see this tomorrow.

My thoughts on everything:  :o

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 03:13:57 PMTo sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1. Kinda restating my earlier post, but I agree that Hot Targets should NOT claim now, but I do think it is in the town's best interest to for Hot Targets to claim if they start collecting the majority of lynch votes. It's a bad situation for the town, but the way I see it, it saves a phase. If the Hot Target doesn't speak up, they get lynched and it brings their respective Assassin much closer to victory AND allows said Assassin to focus their kill that night elsewhere. If the Hot Target claims and avoids a lynch, their respective Assassin will likely just kill them that night. Saves a phase.

2. It's important to remember that someone who thinks they're a normal human could also be Cold Target or a Ward. 6 people here think they are a "normal human"; 2 wards, 2 Cold Targets, and 2 actual Normal Humans.

Lynching a Ward is good; it removes an Assassin.
Lynching a Cold Target is bad; this advances the respective Assassin and allows them to direct their kill elsewhere.
Lynching a Normal Human has a marginal negative effect; we miss an Assassin but it doesn't help the Assassins advance their win conditions. Although, it narrows the voting pool for lynching AND gives the Assassins information for their next kill.

So 4/6 possibilities are at least somewhat bad, so my initial thoughts are it is good to defend yourself if you think you're a normal human.

However....

What if an Assassin starts collecting lynch votes! They're likely going to just claim Normal Human to avoid losing on the spot. If we establish a Normal Human does NOT defend themselves, wouldn't that pin the Assassin? Basically, if someone starts collecting lynch votes and defends themselves, it means they're an Assassin.

That be a good strategy in a different TWG since a townie being lynched directly helps the wolf. But here, it doesn't directly affect the Assassin- the Ward could end up dying too.

So, I think I'm leaning towards "Normal Humans" NOT defend themselves in an effort to pin an Assassin, at least in the early game.

Honestly though, I'm open to other people's thoughts because its still confusing to me a bit.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 22, 2023, 09:12:46 PMThat be a good strategy in a different TWG since a townie being lynched directly helps the wolf. But here, it doesn't directly affect the Assassin- the Ward could end up dying too.

Typo on this. Should read "That would NOT be a good strategy..."

so if people want to lynch me, I just sit back and be like "noice, bye bye guys"

cool


also I'm grasping the concept a bit better but will probably have a million questions in like an hour or so

WHY DIDN'T IT TELL ME THAT I WAS NINJA'D.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 09:15:46 PMso if people want to lynch me, I just sit back and be like "noice, bye bye guys"

cool


also I'm grasping the concept a bit better but will probably have a million questions in like an hour or so

That's part of the reason why I'm still not entirely sure tbh. Maybe it's optimal play, but it just feels wrong to not defend yourself if you're a human haha. The design of the game does play a major factor however, as I discussed above.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 22, 2023, 09:12:46 PMThey're likely going to just claim Normal Human to avoid losing on the spot. If we establish a Normal Human does NOT defend themselves, wouldn't that pin the Assassin?

This would not happen--the assassin in the case would claim hot target, which is the human-aligned role we have established *does* resist being lynched, since it's the human role which the assassins don't know, but which still leads them closer to their win condition. I've been thinking about this since BDS/Davy/Specs were arguing about it earlier today and I honestly don't think I agree with the rationale. If assassins are getting close to being lynched, they'll just claim hot target because that's what you do when your back is against the wall. No clear way to sort out whether that person is lying.

So since there's not a concerted push to lynch me right now I feel comfortable claiming: I am a hot target. Obv not saying which color. Come get me assassins.

I mean, that's a pretty good strategy... if we knew who was a normal townie, or even if there was a way of figuring that out. As you said earlier, we could lynch a cold target. The only thing I could come up with right now is that we'll have to watch people's votes super closely. If someone votes without a reason or is trying to persuade others to vote for them, that may just be a cold target. I'm trying, OK?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 03:39:07 PM2. BlackDragonSlayer: posted (substantial)

also I love this

what the heck is happening to NSM right now

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 09:34:58 PMIf someone votes without a reason or is trying to persuade others to vote for them, the person they're voting for may just be a cold target, and they might be an assassin. I'm trying, OK?

fixed

Hello everyone, just caught up. :o Still digesting strategy talk but I'll cast my vote to

SpecsFlyer17

just to avoid overwhelming majority

forgive me for being dumb


but "midnight" always confuses me


the phase ends 24 hours from now, right?

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 10:04:23 PMforgive me for being dumb


but "midnight" always confuses me


the phase ends 24 hours from now, right?

A bit less than 24 hours if there's a majority, with another 24h extension if not.
Early Countdown (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/fall?iso=20230924T00&p0=64&msg=Day+0+Majority&font=cursive)
Late Countdown (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/fall?iso=20230925T00&p0=64&msg=Day+0+Latest&font=cursive)

VOTECOUNT 0.1

BlackDragonSlayer – (0/6) – XiaoMigros
davy – (1/6) – XiaoMigros
SpecsFlyer17 – (1/6) – threalmathguy

I may have accidentally PM'd this votecount to someone – apologies if so!

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 09:30:49 PMSo since there's not a concerted push to lynch me right now I feel comfortable claiming: I am a hot target. Obv not saying which color. Come get me assassins.

Hot targets: do not claim to TZP

Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 03:31:03 PM2)I don't think you're able to reliable enforce this because there will be reverse psychology from the assasins but also its natural instinct for a human to defend themselves because they'll have their own opinion on who is a better lynch. There's not really anyway to enforce this because people are going to push their own suspicions regardless and re directing is a form of defense. you cant just expect people to be silent and give up once they get voted just because theyre town

As I said before, but bears repeating:

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 01:06:44 PMAlso to clarify: not defending yourself does not mean you can't push for a different lynch in my book, so a player under fire can still try to get a different lynch going.

---

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 22, 2023, 09:12:46 PMHowever....

What if an Assassin starts collecting lynch votes! They're likely going to just claim Normal Human to avoid losing on the spot. If we establish a Normal Human does NOT defend themselves, wouldn't that pin the Assassin? Basically, if someone starts collecting lynch votes and defends themselves, it means they're an Assassin.

That be a good strategy in a different TWG since a townie being lynched directly helps the wolf. But here, it doesn't directly affect the Assassin- the Ward could end up dying too.

So, I think I'm leaning towards "Normal Humans" NOT defend themselves in an effort to pin an Assassin, at least in the early game.

This guy gets it.

---

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 09:15:46 PMso if people want to lynch me, I just sit back and be like "noice, bye bye guys"

cool

You can still push for an alternative lynch in this case.

---

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 11:45:58 AMKai, are cardflips just the color of the person killed, or do they say the explicit role of the deceased?

Kai, could you clarify this?

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 22, 2023, 11:39:15 PMBlackDragonSlayer – (0/6) – XiaoMigros
davy – (1/6) – XiaoMigros
SpecsFlyer17 – (1/6) – threalmathguy

You missed BDS's vote for me.

Okay, with the first 24 hours of Day 0 over, let's move on to a suspicion list (with help from BDS's activity list).

Assassin lean

1. XiaoMigros. They are playing very differntly from last game, with very little involvement with the thread. Could be an assassin trying to figure out their own strategy which limits them from joining in formulating a town strategy. Also, when BDS persuaded him not to vote him, he immediately changed his vote to the player BDS was also voting for, which is something I wouldn't really see town!Xiao do.

2. Toby. Toby seems a bit too absent from this game, missing several key points in the discussion between BDS and me. Like with Xiao, I think this points to him being an assassin trying to figure out their own strategy which limits them from joining in formulating a town strategy. Now there was a lot to digest with the convo between me and BDS, but I know Toby as a player capable of digesting a lot of info. While I'm more suspicious of Xiao, I'm placing my vote on Toby mostly to motivate him to get more involved in the game, because an involved town!Toby is very helpful to town.

Neutral lean

3. The Musical Poet. Comes across as a new player enthousiastic about playing the game. I have no clue how she normally plays town or assassin, so have no conclusions to draw from her posts so far.

4. A# Minor. Playing the same as previous games. Either town!A# being town!A# or wolf!A# immitating town!A#. As with The Musical Poet, I have no clue what her wolf game would look like.

Slight Town Lean

5. SpecsFlyer17. Gets town points for actively joining the town strategy discussion as a newer player, which changes them from a neutral to a slight Town Lean.

Town Lean

6. BlackDragonSlayer. Being quite aggressive? Check. Being a bit too sure of himself? Check. Feels like normal town!BDS to me so far.

Strong Town Lean

7. TheZeldaPianist. I doubt assassin!TZP would fake claim hot target.

(Mostly) Inactive

• therealmathguy
• ThatHiddenCharacter

I forgot if I've already mentioned this, but worth noting is that if a ward is up for lynch it's entirely possible for an assassin to subtly defend them/push for an alternative lynch (especially early on before the lynch gains too much traction), which would also invalidate further benefit from davy's plan.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 04:16:59 AMI forgot if I've already mentioned this, but worth noting is that if a ward is up for lynch it's entirely possible for an assassin to subtly defend them/push for an alternative lynch (especially early on before the lynch gains too much traction), which would also invalidate further benefit from davy's plan.

There are certain things best left unsaid and this is definitely one

There's no reason this needed to be revealed unless you were using it against someone, which you're not

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 22, 2023, 11:39:15 PMVOTECOUNT 0.1

BlackDragonSlayer – (0/6) – XiaoMigros
davy – (1/6) – XiaoMigros
SpecsFlyer17 – (1/6) – threalmathguy

I may have accidentally PM'd this votecount to someone – apologies if so!

I voted TZP

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 22, 2023, 04:40:12 PMI will be catching up on this after I finish my work. And hopefully I will be able to respond in time.

Since TZP is hot target im going to vote musical poet for not responding yet

Quote from: davy on September 23, 2023, 12:33:28 AMOkay, with the first 24 hours of Day 0 over, let's move on to a suspicion list (with help from BDS's activity list).

Assassin lean

1. XiaoMigros. They are playing very differntly from last game, with very little involvement with the thread. Could be an assassin trying to figure out their own strategy which limits them from joining in formulating a town strategy. Also, when BDS persuaded him not to vote him, he immediately changed his vote to the player BDS was also voting for, which is something I wouldn't really see town!Xiao do.

2. Toby. Toby seems a bit too absent from this game, missing several key points in the discussion between BDS and me. Like with Xiao, I think this points to him being an assassin trying to figure out their own strategy which limits them from joining in formulating a town strategy. Now there was a lot to digest with the convo between me and BDS, but I know Toby as a player capable of digesting a lot of info. While I'm more suspicious of Xiao, I'm placing my vote on Toby mostly to motivate him to get more involved in the game, because an involved town!Toby is very helpful to town.

Neutral lean

3. The Musical Poet. Comes across as a new player enthousiastic about playing the game. I have no clue how she normally plays town or assassin, so have no conclusions to draw from her posts so far.

4. A# Minor. Playing the same as previous games. Either town!A# being town!A# or wolf!A# immitating town!A#. As with The Musical Poet, I have no clue what her wolf game would look like.

Slight Town Lean

5. SpecsFlyer17. Gets town points for actively joining the town strategy discussion as a newer player, which changes them from a neutral to a slight Town Lean.

Town Lean

6. BlackDragonSlayer. Being quite aggressive? Check. Being a bit too sure of himself? Check. Feels like normal town!BDS to me so far.

Strong Town Lean

7. TheZeldaPianist. I doubt assassin!TZP would fake claim hot target.

(Mostly) Inactive

• therealmathguy
• ThatHiddenCharacter

I fully agree I have been absent, my heads been elsewhere which is why I was reluctant to join another game to begin with, and there was a lot of discussion from Davy and BDS that I had to just skim through because I couldn't focus on it

I also didn't follow the logic of a lot of it as any plan we announce an assassin can copy - such as telling humans to not defend themselves. I also feel what we call defending ourselves is very subjective and pushing for another lynch is a given anyway. So I don't really get the logic of the plan at all given everyone is gonna try redirect a lynch anyway, and if you want humans to just play quiet then the assassin will just do that too.

Having hot targets claim I did think about a bit but if the hot targets claim that gives the assasins exactly what they want for their night kill ? And there is no benefit to humans ? If assasins don't know the hot targets, the benefit to humans is they might kill a ward, or the other assassin which is what we want

So TZP claimed hot target, which I think might be okay as a solo claim, but I don't think the other hot target should claim because then at least the assasins might both end up trying to kill TZP and waste a kill. I'm not sure how I judge if 1 hot target claiming is better than 0 but we have the 1 claim now so we can't reverse it lol

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 04:32:01 AMThere are certain things best left unsaid and this is definitely one

There's no reason this needed to be revealed unless you were using it against someone, which you're not

Why? It's fairly obvious reasoning that follows going through with davy's plan, and any town that ignores it is just leaving themselves vulnerable to being taken advantage of.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 04:46:17 AMWhy? It's fairly obvious reasoning that follows going through with davy's plan, and any town that ignores it is just leaving themselves vulnerable to being taken advantage of.

Maybe it's because my mindset is we won't be following Davy plan anyway, but the more we tell the assassins what we are looking for the less reliable it can be

Unless you want to suggest a plan where no one defends anyone this game too lol, I would preferred that reasoning only be brought up to be used to vote against someone rather than just blurted out

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 04:55:06 AMMaybe it's because my mindset is we won't be following Davy plan anyway, but the more we tell the assassins what we are looking for the less reliable it can be

As far as I can tell, it's still a matter of for debate, and I'm adding evidence that could potentially sway people's opinions.

QuoteUnless you want to suggest a plan where no one defends anyone this game too lol, I would preferred that reasoning only be brought up to be used to vote against someone rather than just blurted out

That's fair, but as I said I think it's mostly obvious information to the point where the only people who wouldn't figure it out would be people who might not have been paying close attention to the game so far.

On that note, I do stand by my vote for davy at the moment. I can't help but shake the feeling he's an assassin who made the assumption that he probably only needed to convince one or two people to go along with his plan to get enough traction to get everyone else to follow along. If davy is one of the assassins, he certainly already realized what I mentioned, and knowing this, would have great incentive to continue to try and convince people to follow through with his plan as a method of gaining better control over the lynch (i.e. davy is playing the game to be assassin vs. assassin rather than town vs. assassin). Backing down entirely, however, would look weird for him at this point (and likely would've had to happen much earlier in our discussion), which is why he's only walked back on the idea in steps until the point when enough people have spoken out against it.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 05:07:07 AMI can't help but shake the feeling he's an assassin who made the assumption that he probably only needed to convince one or two people to go along with his plan to get enough traction to get everyone else to follow along.

To elaborate on this, if I had agreed with davy or even not stepped in to the degree that I did, it wouldn't surprise me if the general opinion would likely be much more favored toward going through with the plan.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 04:16:59 AMI forgot if I've already mentioned this, but worth noting is that if a ward is up for lynch it's entirely possible for an assassin to subtly defend them/push for an alternative lynch (especially early on before the lynch gains too much traction), which would also invalidate further benefit from davy's plan.

I think I get what you mean, that if wards are subtly protected by their assassin the lynch is more likely to fall on a non-ward and with cold targets and normal townies not defending themselves the lynch is more likely to fall on them. Agree that it diminishes the benifit of my plan, disagree about the degree it diminishes it.

---

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 04:45:23 AMI also didn't follow the logic of a lot of it as any plan we announce an assassin can copy - such as telling humans to not defend themselves. I also feel what we call defending ourselves is very subjective and pushing for another lynch is a given anyway. So I don't really get the logic of the plan at all given everyone is gonna try redirect a lynch anyway, and if you want humans to just play quiet then the assassin will just do that too.

An assassin that is on the chopping block will have to defend themselves or they are going to lose the game. I am fine with an assassin copying town playstyle if it makes us win the game.

---

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 04:32:01 AMThere are certain things best left unsaid and this is definitely one

There's no reason this needed to be revealed unless you were using it against someone, which you're not

Kinda agree with Toby that discussing assassin strategy in the thread is probably not a good idea, and that this is something that would have been better to reveal if you actually think you're seeing it happening.

Also, completely unrelated but still worth mentioning, I'm based in US Pacific Time, but my schedule is kinda weird at the moment. Last night I went to bed around 8pm and woke up today about 4am (yes, I woke up and immediately started TWG'ing 8)). I'm gradually trying to correct it to a more "normal" schedule.

Quote from: davy on September 23, 2023, 05:15:28 AMI think I get what you mean, that if wards are subtly protected by their assassin the lynch is more likely to fall on a non-ward and with cold targets and normal townies not defending themselves the lynch is more likely to fall on them. Agree that it diminishes the benifit of my plan, disagree about the degree it diminishes it.

Sure, but at this point it's all the little detracting points adding up, no?

QuoteAn assassin that is on the chopping block will have to defend themselves or they are going to lose the game. I am fine with an assassin copying town playstyle if it makes us win the game.

That's not different than any manhunt game though, and there's a good reason we don't use similar approaches to manhunt games. Personally, I don't feel as if the involvement of the wards makes that significantly different enough to change that.

QuoteKinda agree with Toby that discussing assassin strategy in the thread is probably not a good idea, and that this is something that would have been better to reveal if you actually think you're seeing it happening.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 05:07:07 AMOn that note, I do stand by my vote for davy at the moment. I can't help but shake the feeling he's an assassin who made the assumption that he probably only needed to convince one or two people to go along with his plan to get enough traction to get everyone else to follow along. If davy is one of the assassins, he certainly already realized what I mentioned, and knowing this, would have great incentive to continue to try and convince people to follow through with his plan as a method of gaining better control over the lynch (i.e. davy is playing the game to be assassin vs. assassin rather than town vs. assassin). Backing down entirely, however, would look weird for him at this point (and likely would've had to happen much earlier in our discussion), which is why he's only walked back on the idea in steps until the point when enough people have spoken out against it.

It's not entirely unrelated.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 05:26:35 AMThat's not different than any manhunt game though, and there's a good reason we don't use similar approaches to manhunt games. Personally, I don't feel as if the involvement of the wards makes that significantly different enough to change that.

Wards and townies that don't count towards the assassin's win con. Disagreed on the second sentence as that is the crux of our dissagreement.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 05:26:35 AMSure, but at this point it's all the little detracting points adding up, no?

I don't feel so, but I also feel like we've been arguing this enough, and should let the rest of the players voice their thoughts.

Toby, TZP and Specs already did. Toby is against, TZP was initially in favor but has turned against it in his claiming post. Specs is in favor. I'd like to hear what the rest thinks.

Nah, I was just against people telling the hot targets not to claim. I'm okay with your suggestion to have "normal" humans taking one for the team and allowing themselves to be lynched, particularly on D0. Suspicion list to come later today.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 23, 2023, 05:44:28 AMNah, I was just against people telling the hot targets not to claim. I'm okay with your suggestion to have "normal" humans taking one for the team and allowing themselves to be lynched, particularly on D0. Suspicion list to come later today.

Ah, sorry for the misunderstanding. In that case it's:

In favor: davy, TZP, specs
Against: BDS, Toby

Yet to express their opinion: Xiao, Poet, A#, mathguy, THC

Quote from: davy on September 23, 2023, 12:33:28 AM1. XiaoMigros. They are playing very differntly from last game, with very little involvement with the thread.

This is said about me every game :D

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 03:27:16 PMI'm also interested to hear your thoughts on the discussion itself irrespective of davy and me (though, as I said before, it can wait until tomorrow if you're too tired to think properly :P).

tbh I don't entirely agree with either of yalls logic, but I still think regular townies not defending themselves is the optimal strategy.
Regular townies don't know if they are a ward, their death has a significant chance of being helpful

Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 01:06:44 PMAlso to clarify: not defending yourself does not mean you can't push for a different lynch in my book, so a player under fire can still try to get a different lynch going.

This just seems like backpedalling on your own idea to get out of a situation if needed, sus

hmm, actually, the benefit of hitting a ward gets cancelled out by the un-benefit of hitting a hot target, so I'm not sure it matters what we do here either way so long as we are strategic about it

also what does cardflipping mean?

it's when someone's color and/or role gets revealed


cardflips were on in that nothing special game, if that helps


also I knew I should've stayed up last night :')

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 23, 2023, 07:38:42 AMtbh I don't entirely agree with either of yalls logic, but I still think regular townies not defending themselves is the optimal strategy.
Regular townies don't know if they are a ward, their death has a significant chance of being helpful

This is why I brought up the possibility of the ward being soft-defended by their assassin. If the assassin didn't know the ward identity, then I could see it being more optimal to risk it.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 23, 2023, 08:18:31 AMalso what does cardflipping mean?

TZP asked the same question whether it's just color or full role. Hasn't been answered yet.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 23, 2023, 07:38:42 AMtbh I don't entirely agree with either of yalls logic, but I still think regular townies not defending themselves is the optimal strategy.
Regular townies don't know if they are a ward, their death has a significant chance of being helpful

(this is just a random quote for a point of reference lol)


but then there are the cold targets, who also don't know their exact role. we could try to lynch them, and with this strategy, they'll be unable to defend themselves. the wolf assassin would be real happy about that... :P

safety on specs in case I don't get back to this

messed up there


safety on therealmathguy

so a regular townie letting themselves die has a 2/6 (1/3) chance of taking a wolf down with them.

Alternatively there's a 4/10 (2/5, 1/2.5) chance of a wolf being lynched if we just play normally. If we try lynch someone and they claim hot target there's a 2/4 (1/2) chance they could be a wolf false claiming.

if my odds are right then putting a focus on normal townies isn't optimal at this stage in the game

I don't follow the 2/4 part

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 23, 2023, 11:23:18 AMI don't follow the 2/4 part

why not? it makes sense to me

Hard to throw around legitimate suspicion this early in the game. Here's what I think before I reread everything again in detail and vote tonight:

THC, mathguy: would definitely like to hear more from you two. Right now, nothing contributed to the town strategy.

Poet, A#: Some good conversation about the game, but not a ton of town strategy discussed. Not necessarily Assassin lean, but definitely not town lean.

davy, BDS: I honestly read your earlier massive conversation in good faith- I know there were some disagreements but it seemed like legitimate strategy discussions and nothing really screamed sus to me. Definitely points for discussing town strategy. Town lean.

TZP: Claiming Hot Target seemed like a self-preservation move to me. We more or less agreed to not lynch the Hot Target, and not claiming color puts the Assassins with a gamble. This feels like a slight town-lean play, and combined with good strategy discussion makes me lean town for him.

Xiao: The swap from BDS to davy immediately after BDS defended himself looked sus, but it is circumstantial evidence, especially this early in the game. Nothing really leans either way for me other than that.

Toby: Came to defense pretty quickly after getting a vote, which is understandable. Good discussion on the probability strategy earlier today.

Generic, right? Yeah, hard to say a lot on Day 1 with a day phase starting game. idk.

I'll reread everything this afternoon and vote again tonight. I'll probably post some updated suspicions as well.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 23, 2023, 11:23:18 AMI don't follow the 2/4 part

The only people who would claim hot target would be either the 2 hot targets or the 2 assassins as an attempt to not be lynched

My top two suspicions are still Toby and Xiao, so I feel comfortable leaving my vote where it is for now.

I'd like to see everyone vote (or state their intend to vote if insta's are getting close) someone today so that we'll have another day to hopefully come to a consensus.

Because what I'd really like to avoid is a last minute mass vote change to kill someone. That is already bad in a normal TWG, but especially bad now because an assassin could use such a thing to change a lynch away from a ward.

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 10:50:10 AMso a regular townie letting themselves die has a 2/6 (1/3) chance of taking a wolf down with them.

Alternatively there's a 4/10 (2/5, 1/2.5) chance of a wolf being lynched if we just play normally. If we try lynch someone and they claim hot target there's a 2/4 (1/2) chance they could be a wolf false claiming.

if my odds are right then putting a focus on normal townies isn't optimal at this stage in the game

To explain things out clearly for people who might be confused where Toby is getting these numbers from:
- 2/6 because 10 (players) - 2 (assassins) - 2 (hot targets) = 6 (people who think they're normal townies), 2 wards, so 2/6 chance
- 4/10 chance of a wolf being lynched normally because there are 10 players and there are 4 potential targets that would result in a wolf dying (2 wards, 2 assassins themselves)

Thank you for spelling these probabilities out. I feel it's helpful to have.

Quote from: davy on September 23, 2023, 12:26:18 PMI'd like to see everyone vote (or state their intend to vote if insta's are getting close) someone today so that we'll have another day to hopefully come to a consensus.

Because what I'd really like to avoid is a last minute mass vote change to kill someone. That is already bad in a normal TWG, but especially bad now because an assassin could use such a thing to change a lynch away from a ward.

I agree with this. Last-minute mass vote changes rarely work out and should be avoided if at all possible.

Gonna cast my stone for Threalmathguy for now, who is one of the most intelligent people I know and who hasn't contributed to the game beyond a cursory :o. There's no question that the assassins have to play much more cautiously than the human team, and I don't know that he would be holding back as much if he were a human. Open to being persuaded though

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 23, 2023, 01:29:24 PMGonna cast my stone for Threalmathguy for now, who is one of the most intelligent people I know and who hasn't contributed to the game beyond a cursory :o. There's no question that the assassins have to play much more cautiously than the human team, and I don't know that he would be holding back as much if he were a human. Open to being persuaded though

Has he played TWG before (or any variations thereof)? I feel like it could be a bit of an adjustment for a lot of people at first, regardless of intelligence.

Sorry, I haven't responded much. As this is my first play, I am being very cautious to avoid leaking information and to not make any mistakes. Also, my workload and sleep schedule directly affect my presence here. I will try my best to be active.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 23, 2023, 01:50:01 PMAs this is my first play, I am being very cautious to avoid leaking information and to not make any mistakes.

sus

Yeah, that wording does feel rather... odd.

I tend to sometimes blow out and say more than what was necessary. That is why it seems strange. apologies lol

if you're a human then you generally dont need to worry about avoiding leaking information

Yeah, what Toby said. Overall, I understand that feeling as a newcomer to TWG, but at the same time going too silent mostly just ends up making things more difficult to figure out.

is it just me that feels like there's been such a strong attempt to try co ordinate a plan in a twg that really feels like it doesnt need one? I don't want to be negative but honestly that's how I've felt hearing the plans and why I haven't been as engaged

the letting yourself die as a normal human if you're voted plan just seems very redundant because the chance of a normal human dying being a good thing has as much chance (or less) as focusing on lynching assassins working out

and a plan for the hot targets to claim and give the assassins what they need to win doesn't sound beneficial at all either.

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:47:16 PMis it just me that feels like there's been such a strong attempt to try co ordinate a plan in a twg that really feels like it doesnt need one? I don't want to be negative but honestly that's how I've felt hearing the plans and why I haven't been as engaged

I feel like a huge hypocrite considering the low impact number plans I suggested last game but I feel like although the game was simple my plan at least had a clear  benefit with low effort

Also I'm going to vote someone that's inactive this game for day 1, because I don't want to deal with less active people later in the game and I can at least guarantee a benefit to their lynch in that sense if they aren't assassin/ward

So rn I'll either vote THC, math guy or poet

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:47:16 PMis it just me that feels like there's been such a strong attempt to try co ordinate a plan in a twg that really feels like it doesnt need one? I don't want to be negative but honestly that's how I've felt hearing the plans and why I haven't been as engaged

I'm inclined to agree, and I am somewhat concerned how it's mostly monopolized the discussion up until now. At the same time, I feel it's been fairly revealing of some of the more active players based on their responses to the discussion, so it hasn't been entirely fruitless.

On one hand, I get the temptation to try and plan rather than just going with the flow, especially with the less familiar nature of this game compared to a standard run-of-the-mill game, but on the other hand, like you said, when planning, the first thing to address is whether the planning is actually necessary to begin with.

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:49:24 PMI feel like a huge hypocrite considering the low impact number plans I suggested last game but I feel like although the game was simple my plan at least had a clear  benefit with low effort

And a few people even failed to follow the plan last game :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 02:55:21 PMAnd a few people even failed to follow the plan last game :P

Exactly!

Also, in regards to humans just rolling over and dying if voted- if people have genuine defences for things they're being accused of they should be allowed to say. We'll end up just voting off normal humans all day if no one is defending themselves, and we want to at least keep the focus on finding assassins. I get that normal humans dying actually have a chance of being beneficial, and hey maybe later in the game the probabilities will change and we can consider it more later, but at this stage in the game, it doesn't weigh in our favour

At this stage in the game I just want a quiet person to be lynched because the wolf sure as hell won't kill them unless they are a target

so i made a vote count thing. i hope i didn't miss anything


A#: Specs math
BDS: N/A
THC: N/A
Xiao: BDS davy
TZP: math
Specs: N/A
Poet: N/A
math: Specs
davy: Toby
Toby: TZP Poet


so far, math has the most votes  :o

Quote from: A# Minor on September 23, 2023, 03:06:32 PMso i made a vote count thing. i hope i didn't miss anything


A#: Specs math
BDS: N/A
THC: N/A
Xiao: BDS davy
TZP: math
Specs: N/A
Poet: N/A
math: Specs
davy: Toby
Toby: TZP Poet


so far, math has the most votes  :o

BDS voted Davy too im sure so both Math and Davy are tied with 2 votes

what does the phase ending with absolute majority mean? Does that mean it will end tonight only there's an insta?

oh yeah, he did


ninja'd

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 03:10:57 PMwhat does the phase ending with absolute majority mean? Does that mean it will end tonight only there's an insta?

umm... maybe if everyone wants to extend the phase, it'll be extended? would be kinda nice to see if THC and math would show up tbh

Quote from: A# Minor on September 23, 2023, 03:12:36 PMninja'd
umm... maybe if everyone wants to extend the phase, it'll be extended, but it'll end tonight by default? would be kinda nice to see if THC and math would show up tbh

fixed

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 03:10:57 PMwhat does the phase ending with absolute majority mean? Does that mean it will end tonight only there's an insta?

I've never seen such a system before, but I think it means that if more than 50% players are voting for the same person it will end at the Early Countdown, and if not it'll end at the Late Countdown. A bit confusing. I feel like standardized phase ends would be better with normal insta mechanics.

come on guys, let's insta N/A

This sucks. I will be gone for 5 hours. :> Sorry for the inconvenience.

Jesus christ, I missed a ton. I didn't go on NSM yesterday, and I've slept all day today after work. I have a few things I want to respond to, but I'm on mobile, so I'll be doing it in separate posts.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 22, 2023, 11:39:15 PMVOTECOUNT 0.1

BlackDragonSlayer – (0/6) – XiaoMigros
davy – (1/6) – XiaoMigros
SpecsFlyer17 – (1/6) – threalmathguy

I may have accidentally PM'd this votecount to someone – apologies if so!

Firstly, can we please not do the rainbow? I can't really read the text.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 03:13:57 PMTo sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1. I honestly think claiming hot target isn't a good idea. Cause regardless of if someone is in the corner or not, a wolf would (at this point now that it's out there) fully be able to claim it at any point. That's why I don't think TZP is fully clear like (I think it was) Davy said. I could absolutely see assassin!TZP claiming hot target now to seem less suspicious.

2. I don't even understand why this is an argument. I am 100% with BDS on this one. The "benefits" of no defending do not outway the negatives. Both a regular town kill and a cold target kill would negatively impact town, even if not as badly as a hot target kill. Both decrease the pool for either one or both assassins, so they have an easier time finding their other targets.

That being said, I want to avoid lending to an insta or a kitb this early on, so I will not yet be voting. I don't feel that strongly about anyone without any votes on them currently, and anyone else would either widen the current kitb or make it easier for someone to cause an insta. I am suspicious of Xiao right now for voting so quickly and then quickly changing their vote without much persuasion. I won't speak to the general lack of explanation since that seems to be normal for them.

Also, now that I know the game has started, I should be more active. Sorry for being absent.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 23, 2023, 04:06:22 PMSorry for being absent.

i hope you enjoyed your breakfast

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 23, 2023, 04:00:40 PMI could absolutely see assassin!TZP claiming hot target now to seem less suspicious.

...I could potentially see wolf TZP deliberately making a completely 360 move from his usual wolf tactics as a deliberate attempt to throw people off his scent, but IMO, with a second assassin running around I'm not sure he would want to needlessly risk attracting their attention.

With two Assassins in play, I see TZPs claim being more of a human taking one for the team. If the Assassin bites off, no harm done, as killing a regular human isn't super advantageous. If the Assassins don't take the bait, there's not really any changes to the game overall. We'll see how that claim works in the mid/endgame, but I think it was a good earlygame town decision.

Wait so just so I'm on the same page....

If someone gets more than 50% of the votes in the next 5 hours, the phase ends in 5 hours.
If someone doesn't get those votes, the phase ends in 29 hours?

Would this be a 72hr phase then?

I... guess so??

 :-[

I'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 23, 2023, 08:59:15 PMI'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

Right now my stance on TZP is "wait and see."

I do generally see him as more human than not, though. With him being wolf for the past two games, I don't think he would do something like that as a wolf this game. Feels needlessly risky.

We get a lot of information after a phase in this game. After night 1, we'll have a decent idea of the situation because of the card flips. Still waiting to hear back if the card flips include color or not btw. For now, I think TZPs play leans town with two Assassins still on the loose.

there's a 75% chance that I'm missing something, but I don't see any reason for TZP to claim hot target right now


also I kinda hope the phase ends in half an hour

It will end tomorrow night if Im reading the rules correctly. Unless someone gets an insane number of votes in the next 30 min

oh alright


72 hour phases go brrr

Epic! I should be able to say at least one thing per phase.


I will not be voting for now. There isn't enough information for me to go by, but I do not trust TZP's claim.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 23, 2023, 09:51:15 PMEpic! I should be able to say at least one thing per phase.


I will not be voting for now. There isn't enough information for me to go by, but I do not trust TZP's claim.

Lets get a rules check on this from the more experienced players- Isn't not voting typically a penalty? I forget how that works.

Poet, you may want to submit a vote for somebody (could even make it yourself if you don't have any votes) as a safety vote. Thats why you see people calling votes "safeties"

Poet, you're gonna want to vote for somebody, because if you don't, you'll get a phantom vote thingy, and three phantoms gets you out of the game. if you don't know who to vote, you could just pick somebody with no votes (even yourself :P)


Ninja'd

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 23, 2023, 10:10:15 PMLets get a rules check on this from the more experienced players- Isn't not voting typically a penalty? I forget how that works.

Poet, you may want to submit a vote for somebody (could even make it yourself if you don't have any votes) as a safety vote. Thats why you see people calling votes "safeties"

From a TWC perspective, the stance I've been taking since the NSMTWG revivial has been "it's up to the host if they wanna use phantoms," and so far, neither games have. As a host, personally, I feel like since there are a lot of new players it's better to relax the rule just a bit.

Since I am new, I may read the previous games to get a feel for everybody's play styles and to see how the game works from a different angle.

Not much to say about the "leaking info" comment. Could be an assassin slip up, could be a towny not being careful enough with their wording.

However:

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:37:30 PMif you're a human then you generally dont need to worry about avoiding leaking information

This is hypocritical considering this earlier post by you:

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 04:32:01 AMThere are certain things best left unsaid and this is definitely one

There's no reason this needed to be revealed unless you were using it against someone, which you're not

---

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:47:16 PMis it just me that feels like there's been such a strong attempt to try co ordinate a plan in a twg that really feels like it doesnt need one?

Yeah, BDS and I probably spend longer going back and forth than strictly necessairy as we both have a tendency of not letting things lie down. But on the plus side it did give something to talk about which is important because town needs all the activity it can get.

Basically, what BDS said:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 02:55:21 PMI feel it's been fairly revealing of some of the more active players based on their responses to the discussion, so it hasn't been entirely fruitless.

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 02:47:16 PMI don't want to be negative but honestly that's how I've felt hearing the plans and why I haven't been as engaged

So I'm not quite fond of this sentence. It's fine if you don't want to engage with what you see as unnecessairy strategizing, but then at least engage with something else happening in the thread or start something yourself that players can engage with.

---

Quote from: Toby on September 23, 2023, 03:02:33 PMwe want to at least keep the focus on finding assassins.

(...)

At this stage in the game I just want a quiet person to be lynched because the wolf sure as hell won't kill them unless they are a target

Lynching quiet people isn't focussing on finding assassins. Getting an assassin lean from this post.

---

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 23, 2023, 04:06:22 PMThat being said, I want to avoid lending to an insta or a kitb this early on, so I will not yet be voting. I don't feel that strongly about anyone without any votes on them currently, and anyone else would either widen the current kitb or make it easier for someone to cause an insta. I am suspicious of Xiao right now for voting so quickly and then quickly changing their vote without much persuasion. I won't speak to the general lack of explanation since that seems to be normal for them.

Can I gather from that that you intend to vote Xiao as things stand? It's important to know players' intend to vote early so that we can come to a consensus early.

---

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 23, 2023, 09:51:15 PMI will not be voting for now. There isn't enough information for me to go by, but I do not trust TZP's claim.

Town only has their lynch vote as a means to kill the assassin, so I urge you to use it. The fewer human players vote, the easier it becomes for either assassin to swing the lynch in their favor.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 23, 2023, 10:53:41 PMSince I am new, I may read the previous games to get a feel for everybody's play styles and to see how the game works from a different angle.

This is a good idea.

Also, with more players having expressed their opnion, it's now

In favor: davy, TZP, specs, mathguy
Against: BDS, Toby, THC

Yet to express their opinion: Xiao, Poet, A#

Looks like we have about a 50/50 split...

Unvote for now. I'm at the point where I'm more suspicious of Xiao for his contributions to the game so far, and Poet for not wanting to vote than that I am of Toby, but since they are about equally high on my list I prefer not voting for either right now.

So, let's have a look at everyone's votes:

A#: math - Safety

BDS: davy - suspicious of the way I went into proposing my plan

THC: N/A - but is suspicious of Xiao for voting quickly and then changing vote immediately

Xiao: davy - following BDS as far as I can tell

TZP: math - for not contributing to the strategy talk against TZP's expectations

Specs: N/A - had a "not town lean" on A#, Poet and Xiao

Poet: N/A - intends not to vote as of now

math: Specs - to avoid voting someone that already has votes (basically a safety)

davy: N/A - suspicious of Xiao and Poet, see explanation above

Toby: Poet - wants to get rid of inactives and has stated he'll vote one out of Poet, MathGuy and THC

Please correct me if I missed or misrepresented anything

To get a bit of a cleaner look, let's filter out the safeties and the intention not to vote:

Spoiler

BDS: vote: davy

THC: sus: Xiao

Xiao: vote: davy

TZP: vote: math

Specs: "not town lean": A#, Poet and Xiao

davy: sus: Xiao and Poet

Toby: intended vote: Poet, MathGuy or THC

[close]

If we next remove A# and THC from that list because only one person intends to lynch each of them, the most likely lynch candidates for this lynch are:

Xiao
Poet
davy
math

I'd like to hear from everyone what they think of these four lynch candidates. And to give the right example:

I prefer Xiao or Poet for this phases' lynch, which should come to no one's surprise as they are my top two suspicions.
Not convinced about the arguments against math, but I also don't have enough of a town lean on him to oppose his lynching.
I would be fine with getting lynched myself this phase (I'm practising what I preach, of course).

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 12:29:52 AMCan I gather from that that you intend to vote Xiao as things stand?

That is correct. I do plan on voting before phase change, I would just prefer to wait for more to happen before I make a decision.

Wait, damn it. I missed this. So glad it was at the top of the page cause it now has my attention:

Quote from: A# Minor on September 23, 2023, 09:27:21 PMalso I kinda hope the phase ends in half an hour

The phase ending with a KitB with only two votes per player is really bad for town and extremely easy for the assassin to take advantage of. What's worse is that this KitB is caused by A# having a safety on someone that also has another vote. This post is either a big assassin slip up or a truely bad human post. As A# is a newer player, I could see both of those possibilities, but safe to say she moved into my top three suspicions alongside Xiao and Poet.

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 12:29:52 AMNot much to say about the "leaking info" comment. Could be an assassin slip up, could be a towny not being careful enough with their wording.

However:This is hypocritical considering this earlier post by you:

---

That's why I explicitly said 'generally' as to not be hypocritical

I want to see more from Xiao

Ahh, sorry y'all. Tough final stretch at work followed by a big dinner left me PTFO for the last few hours.

Obviously, the Later Deadline is now in effect. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/fall?iso=20230925T00&p0=64&msg=Day+0+Latest&font=cursive)

I will count votes now, and try to maintain regular and accurate votecounts into the future, but I humbly request that y'all put votes on a separate line within your posts. Otherwise I might not see them.

Oh and yes, the whole issue of OUTSIDE COMMUNICATION that I didn't address!

As I try to be flexible, I will allow any OC medium that y'all are comfortable with (which appears largely to be forum PMs). While not to my personal tastes, these are perfectly fine and dandy as long as you include me in all conversations (which has been happening!)

Other venues are also acceptable, but there are some GROUND RULES you are expected to follow on them:
– You must have a clear signal that distinguishes in-game information from out-of-game information. On platforms which have a continuous "online status", this signal must consist of turning this OFF (c.k.a going Invisible).
– No messages from anyone that were sent while having a visible online status, or tagged with any other "out-of-game" (OOG) signal, are admissible in this court of MafiaWolf under any circumstances.
– The host (me) must be included in any group chats players create. (If you haven't been as good about this as for PMs, that's fine, but now's the time to start.)

Any violations of these rules will be treated with equal severity as breaking the already established rules of this forum.

(This is a standard I aim to maintain in all games going forward, FYI, and I think it's a good idea in general for our neck of the woods.)

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 23, 2023, 08:26:20 AMTZP asked the same question whether it's just color or full role. Hasn't been answered yet.

It is indeed full role.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 03:05:06 AM– You must have a clear signal that distinguishes in-game information from out-of-game information. On platforms which have a continuous "online status", this signal must consist of turning this OFF (c.k.a going Invisible).

I don't quite get this. Could you elaborate or give an example?

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 23, 2023, 03:52:00 PMFirstly, can we please not do the rainbow? I can't really read the text.

Sorry about that – I usually employ that as a signal so players can easily pick out host communication on normal forums, but I concur that the legibility on the default theme...isn't great. Hopefully this one fares better.

VOTECOUNT 0.2

davy – (2) – XiaoMigros, BlackDragonSlayer
threalmathguy – (2) – A# Minor, TheZeldaPianist275
SpecsFlyer17 – (1) – threalmathguy, A# Minor
BlackDragonSlayer – (0) – XiaoMigros
Toby – (0) – davy
TheZeldaPianist275 – (0) – Toby

I am not very sharp this morning I see...

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 12:33:10 AMAlso, with more players having expressed their opnion, it's now

In favor: davy, TZP, specs, mathguy
Against: BDS, Toby, THC
On the fence: Xiao

Yet to express their opinion: Xiao, Poet, A#

Looks like we have about a 50/50 split...

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 03:16:32 AMI don't quite get this. Could you elaborate or give an example?

Well, say something's going on outside the game that might account for a recent lack of responses. You could explicitly indicate something was OOG info, like so:

QuoteOOG :: my dog died and I am very sad

That basically means, "hey, this isn't something I'm saying as part of the game, playing my role within it to parlay advantages. This the actual me talking to you personally about stuff."

In an OC tradition, I think that's a very important distinction to make, because when some players are talking to each other both as playing the game and as a normal matter of course, it can be difficult to sort what is what, and historically there have been some severe interpersonal issues in TWG because of that.

So the "OOG tagging" heads that off by making that divide clear for whoever you're talking to.

And I want that OOG tag to be an "Invisible" mode on Discord (or any place where there are similar online statuses) because I don't want online stalking to creep back into the game either.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 03:51:12 AMWell, say something's going on outside the game that might account for a recent lack of responses. You could explicitly indicate something was OOG info, like so:

That basically means, "hey, this isn't something I'm saying as part of the game, playing my role within it to parlay advantages. This the actual me talking to you personally about stuff."

In an OC tradition, I think that's a very important distinction to make, because when some players are talking to each other both as playing the game and as a normal matter of course, it can be difficult to sort what is what, and historically there have been some severe interpersonal issues in TWG because of that.

So the "OOG tagging" heads that off by making that divide clear for whoever you're talking to.

And I want that OOG tag to be an "Invisible" mode on Discord (or any place where there are similar online statuses) because I don't want online stalking to creep back into the game either.

I see. I think it is a good idea to have some means of preventing these kind of issues. The only problem I see is that a player could knowingly or unknowingly take advantage of this system by forgetting to turn their discord mode to visible, so I'd rather say we ban online stalking than to put the responsibility of there being no online stalking on the person that is stalked.

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 03:59:58 AMI see. I think it is a good idea to have some means of preventing these kind of issues. The only problem I see is that a player could knowingly or unknowingly take advantage of this system by forgetting to turn their discord mode to visible, so I'd rather say we ban online stalking than to put the responsibility of there being no online stalking on the person that is stalked.

ahh yeah that's probably best. OOG Tags probably sufficient for the purpose then. sorry i'm pretty zonked

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 03:22:26 AMSorry about that – I usually employ that as a signal so players can easily pick out host communication on normal forums, but I concur that the legibility on the default theme...isn't great. Hopefully this one fares better.

Yes, that is much better. Thank you!

As for the game, I just got off work. I will make a full suspicions post once I get home.

Alrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

Xiao: Right now you're at the top of my suspicion list. The only issue with that is the reasoning behind it is also just the way you play every game. But since I don't feel that strongly about anyone else in particular, you are still my current top pick.

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.

Toby: The fact I can't remember anything about your posts says a lot. I can remember the gists of pretty much everyone else's posts, but not a single thing about any of yours. That tells me that they probably weren't adding a whole lot to the discussion because they likely would have stood out more to me if they did. That being said, I don't find that to be enough to fully suspect you because if I did, then like half the players would also be suspect as assassins.

A#: I'd like to say I could tell you're trying really hard to give input, buuuuut you were really awesome at giving input in the last two games and deducting things. The lack of either of those thus far is a bit of a red flag to me. You may still be new, but you showed some great talent in the last two games. It's still early, though, so I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt for nowI.

Poet: I honestly can't really read you. You're not only new to TWG, but also new to the forum. As of right now, I have no basis for either your personality or playstyle. I would like to hear some more input from you.

math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

BDS: I'm fairly confident you're town. All the things you've said thus far scream town!BDS to me, plus your response to my DMs just cemented it even more.

TZP: I'm 99% sure you're town. I won't disclose why publicly yet, but I feel it's safe to put you in my town drawer to gather dust.

Specs: ...I forgot about you. On the bright side, going back through your posts, I'm getting a slight town read from you. You seem to actively be trying to not only figure out the best plan for town and actively discuss about other proposed plans, but also get other players to be more active and get their thoughts on the discussion.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 23, 2023, 09:27:21 PMalso I kinda hope the phase ends in half an hour

Wait, explain this. The most votes anyone had was 2, a ton of safeties were out, and a ton of people hadn't even voted. When you said this, davy had the most votes with 2.

Why would you hope the phase ended with such an effortless voting lineup?

A# for now, will reevaluate at lunch and after work.

Also Kai, could you let us know if card flips include color assignments?

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 06:39:06 AMAlso Kai, could you let us know if card flips include color assignments?

The name of each role includes its color so I'd assume card flips flipping for full roll would include color

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 03:27:48 AMVOTECOUNT 0.2

davy – (2) – XiaoMigros, BlackDragonSlayer
threalmathguy – (2) – A# Minor, TheZeldaPianist275
SpecsFlyer17 – (1) – threalmathguy, A# Minor
BlackDragonSlayer – (0) – XiaoMigros
Toby – (0) – davy
TheZeldaPianist275 – (0) – Toby

I thought poet might have had at least 2 votes

I voted Musical poet at least

Musical Poet

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMAlrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

Toby: The fact I can't remember anything about your posts says a lot. I can remember the gists of pretty much everyone else's posts, but not a single thing about any of yours. That tells me that they probably weren't adding a whole lot to the discussion because they likely would have stood out more to me if they did. That being said, I don't find that to be enough to fully suspect you because if I did, then like half the players would also be suspect as assassins.


Specs: ...I forgot about you. On the bright side, going back through your posts, I'm getting a slight town read from you. You seem to actively be trying to not only figure out the best plan for town and actively discuss about other proposed plans, but also get other players to be more active and get their thoughts on the discussion.

I was going to allow your deduction on me because I could agree I've not done anything particularly eventful this game compared to the likes of BDS or Davy, however I find it odd that in contrast you looked back at Specs posts but clearly didn't look back at mine. I've at least notably said I was a bit disinterested going for either of the plans that were discussed heavily by Davy and BDS earlier, and I've also explicitly said I was probably going to vote one of the inactive only today, either yourself, math or poet. So there is some content there that I would call something

From that I think it's obvious you didn't look back at my posts specifically, but you did look back at Specs, is that right?

I'm wondering what to make of that and if I should make anything of it but I'll let you answer first I guess

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 07:22:06 AMFrom that I think it's obvious you didn't look back at my posts specifically, but you did look back at Specs, is that right?

I'm wondering what to make of that and if I should make anything of it but I'll let you answer first I guess

That is correct. The reason I looked back at Specs' posts and not yours is because I had forgotten Specs was a player in the game, as I said in my thoughts post. I fully remembered you were in the game and already had planned on you being one of the first people I talked about in my list.

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 07:22:06 AMI've at least notably said I was a bit disinterested going for either of the plans that were discussed heavily by Davy and BDS earlier, and I've also explicitly said I was probably going to vote one of the inactive only today, either yourself, math or poet. So there is some content there that I would call something

I disagree about either of those being notable content. Being against proposed plans without actually proposing another option is only marginally better than not saying anything about said plans and voting inactives is such a default that it really has no bearing on much of anything. Plus, I feel that voting inactives on the first phase is a bad move. If they continue to be inactive after a second phase, then yes voting them would be ok (under the assumption no better candidates are found), but when phase one hasn't even passed yet, that's too early to assume they'll stay inactive. Just look at me, I was inactive for nearly 48 hours, but only because of work/sleep and just not having been on the forum until BDS told me the game started.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 06:15:13 AMWait, explain this. <snip to avoid huge post>

Why would you hope the phase ended with such an effortless voting lineup?

A# for now, will reevaluate at lunch and after work.

(davy said something about it too, but I don't feel like grabbing the quote)


I actually didn't think about that at all, I just wanted the phase to end so the game could get going. I have absolutely nothing to say about anybody because nothing is happening :P this day start is seriously tripping me up

14 pages of posts

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 08:25:18 AMnothing is happening

And like, I get what you mean, but analyzing people's posts is a major part of TWG, so I would suggest you join in on the fun rather than waiting for a kill.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 08:08:44 AMThat is correct. The reason I looked back at Specs' posts and not yours is because I had forgotten Specs was a player in the game, as I said in my thoughts post. I fully remembered you were in the game and already had planned on you being one of the first people I talked about in my list.

did you look back on anyone else's posts?

Changing vote to davy

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 09:05:08 AMdid you look back on anyone else's posts?

No. Like I said, I remembered the gists of everyone else's posts.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 03:15:14 AMIt is indeed full role.

SO...

On one hand, it's good for us to know this, but on the other hand, this definitely makes it easier for the assassins to make their deductions.

Catching up with posts I've missed. I have another event going on from noon (so roughly 15 minutes from now) to roughly 2pm, so I'll be a bit pre-occupied, but I will post a formal suspicion list before the end of the phase. I feel there's more than enough information on everyone to make good D0 reads.

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 01:13:46 AMIf we next remove A# and THC from that list because only one person intends to lynch each of them, the most likely lynch candidates for this lynch are:

Xiao
Poet
davy
math

I'd like to hear from everyone what they think of these four lynch candidates.

I'm ok with Xiao being lynched, but I would much prefer a davy lynch—not only because of reasons I've already gone over before, but regarding Xiao (aside from other suspicious-ness others have already brought up), I think a MYLO/LYLO situation with Xiao in it has the potential to be very dangerous. Xiao's playstyle is naturally hard to read, as it tends to consist of shorter posts in general rather than rambling as... some of us are prone to.

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 01:19:20 AMThe phase ending with a KitB with only two votes per player is really bad for town and extremely easy for the assassin to take advantage of. What's worse is that this KitB is caused by A# having a safety on someone that also has another vote. This post is either a big assassin slip up or a truely bad human post. As A# is a newer player, I could see both of those possibilities, but safe to say she moved into my top three suspicions alongside Xiao and Poet.

You're correct in your assessment, and I agree it definitely comes off the wrong but, but I absolutely read that post as more out of general impatience than actively advocating for an unfavorable situation.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 11:49:07 AMYou're correct in your assessment, and I agree it definitely comes off the wrong way, but I absolutely read that post as more out of general impatience than actively advocating for an unfavorable situation.

fixed

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 11:49:07 AMI'm ok with Xiao being lynched, but I would much prefer a davy lynch—not only because of reasons I've already gone over before, but regarding Xiao (aside from other suspicious-ness others have already brought up), I think a MYLO/LYLO situation with Xiao in it has the potential to be very dangerous. Xiao's playstyle is naturally hard to read, as it tends to consist of shorter posts in general rather than rambling as... some of us are prone to.

Also, since I completely forgot, I don't want Poet to be lynched at the moment. If you want, I can potentially discuss this over PMs, but I feel it's better to not share my full reasoning with the thread (yet, at least) to potentially avoid giving away too much.

Mathguy, I'm ambivalent toward at the moment. So in order of lynch preference, I'd say Davy > Xiao > Mathguy > Poet

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 08:08:44 AMThat is correct. The reason I looked back at Specs' posts and not yours is because I had forgotten Specs was a player in the game, as I said in my thoughts post. I fully remembered you were in the game and already had planned on you being one of the first people I talked about in my list.

That does feel a bit unfair toward Toby. I agree with him there.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 08:25:18 AMI actually didn't think about that at all, I just wanted the phase to end so the game could get going. I have absolutely nothing to say about anybody because nothing is happening :P this day start is seriously tripping me up

This is a very active game so far. Stuff is happening, even if it's not the stuff you feel you can bounce off of. And I know it's a bit intimidating, but feel free to kick off some discussion topics!!! Like, is there a player you get bad vibes from who you haven't really felt has been getting enough attention?

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 08:08:44 AMI had forgotten Specs was a player in the game

Dang, that hurts  ;D

Going to sleep soon, and I'll wake up not long before the phase change.

The closest lynch candidates for the thread seem to be Xiao and I. Since Xiao is also among my top lynch candidates:

Xiao

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 12:07:36 PMDang, that hurts  ;D

Ah, I didn't mean it that way. I was writing my post and knew I was forgetting someone, so I had to look back to see who. If it makes you feel any better, I was expecting to not remember who half the players were. I constantly have to double-check things.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 11:57:50 AMThat does feel a bit unfair toward Toby. I agree with him there.

I disagree. If I had reread everyone's posts except for Toby, then that would be very unfair to him. But that wasn't the case, I only reread Specs' posts. If anything, that's unfair to everyone except Specs. Besides, he brought up stuff he had said before in order to refute my point, to which I immediately refuted back since I personally don't believe it actually went against my point.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 12:48:37 PMI disagree. If I had reread everyone's posts except for Toby, then that would be very unfair to him. But that wasn't the case, I only reread Specs' posts. If anything, that's unfair to everyone except Specs. Besides, he brought up stuff he had said before in order to refute my point, to which I immediately refuted back since I personally don't believe it actually went against my point.

True, but at the same time saying you didn't remember Toby's contributions and then not re-reading his posts feels a bit odd. Doesn't seem like a good idea to hold that against Toby, especially when other players could easily argue the opposite about Toby's posts.

I might be missing something, but why exactly are we wanting to lynch poet again?


also I would be voting xiao now, but to me it seems like they're just being xiao. they listened to kai and helped to insta me in cxiv so I'm not surprised by that

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 01:01:41 PMalso I would be voting xiao now, but to me it seems like they're just being xiao. they listened to kai and helped to insta me in cxiv so I'm not surprised by them changing their vote

fixed

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 12:55:59 PMTrue, but at the same time saying you didn't remember Toby's contributions and then not re-reading his posts feels a bit odd. Doesn't seem like a good idea to hold that against Toby, especially when other players could easily argue the opposite about Toby's posts.

That was my feeling too, and because I was just called neutral and Specs was called townie. I wonder if Specs could be THC's ward and he's paid extra attention to trying to make him look positive to the topic.

Alternatively maybe I'm his ward and he's just wanted me to appear vague as to not be a wolfing target. It could also just be genuine and maybe I'm being held to a higher standard as I was more active last game lol

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 01:01:41 PMI might be missing something, but why exactly are we wanting to lynch poet again?


also I would be voting xiao now, but to me it seems like they're just being xiao. they listened to kai and helped to insta me in cxiv so I'm not surprised by that

Poet made some weird comments which I wouldn't put them down for entirely. But honestly I want to lynch someone who is likely to not to post much and be hard to read later. I've seen staying quiet as a wolf as an annoying strategy often, but also if they're a normal human we could hit a ward that way. I'm happy to vote either poet or math based on that today

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 01:24:25 PMThat was my feeling too, and because I was just called neutral and Specs was called townie. I wonder if Specs could be THC's ward and he's paid extra attention to trying to make him look positive to the topic.

Alternatively maybe I'm his ward and he's just wanted me to appear vague as to not be a wolfing target. It could also just be genuine and maybe I'm being held to a higher standard as I was more active last game lol

None of the above. I truly believe Specs has provided a good amount of valuable activity this game and I believe you haven't. Even upon rereading your posts, my stance on that has remained the same.

However, since I am now going to bed, I'm going to cast my vote since I likely won't be able to before phase change.

As much as I really don't trust Xiao, I'm too worried about mislynching them for playing the same way they always do (for now, at least), so I'm going to cast my vote on my second highest suspicion.

I vote for math.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 01:54:57 PMNone of the above. I truly believe Specs has provided a good amount of valuable activity this game and I believe you haven't. Even upon rereading your posts, my stance on that has remained the same.

Now I feel like you're being borderline offensive considering I have made 26 posts to Specs 16 lol

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMXiao: Right now you're at the top of my suspicion list. The only issue with that is the reasoning behind it is also just the way you play every game. But since I don't feel that strongly about anyone else in particular, you are still my current top pick.

Seeing as I lose every game maybe this is just wishful thinking lol

Toby, anything specific you wanna hear from me?

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 01:54:57 PMAs much as I really don't trust Xiao, I'm too worried about mislynching them for playing the same way they always do (for now, at least), so I'm going to cast my vote on my second highest suspicion.

I have to disagree that Xiao is playing the same as previous games. He's far less active this game so far than he was last game day 1.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 24, 2023, 02:24:26 PMToby, anything specific you wanna hear from me?

I believe your vote is on Davy right now? Do you have anything further to say on that vote as I think it was a light suspicion when you first made it a day (or 2?) ago

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 02:25:25 PMI have to disagree that Xiao is playing the same as previous games. He's far less active this game so far than he was last game day 1.

I was gone today and also I'm no longer on break so

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 02:27:23 PMI believe your vote is on Davy right now? Do you have anything further to say on that vote as I think it was a light suspicion when you first made it a day (or 2?) ago

Mainly the backpedalling on his original plan out of the blue tbh, I think that's reason enough to not change my vote

I don't find back-pedalling on plans inherently suspicious, and given the amount Davy was posting I would figure he was just eager to have discussions. There were also people both for and against his plans which is evident that the plans were clearly debatable with both positives and negatives.

Just because he's actually taken on board what people have said and reconsidered his original thoughts I don't find suspicious at all. I may need to look at it again more closely but I don't think Davy was trying to force any plan on us, he was just suggesting it

That's true, I just find that #54 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436856#msg436856) is phrased rather weirdly

Guess what time is it? SUSPICION LIST TIME!!! :o

WOLF LEAN:
davy: I've already talked about this to death, but to add to everything I've said, overall, I would just feel better if davy were out of the way today (among other things, as mentioned below, I feel like davy's cardflip would be helpful to get a solid read on Toby). For better or worse, I tend to doggedly pursue my suspicions unless something major comes up to change my mind, and at this point, nothing has come up yet to really shake my initial feelings about davy.

Slight Wolf Lean:
XiaoMigros: Last game cemented Xiao's reputation as a wildcard player, and I feel like a MYLO/LYLO situation with Xiao is inherently dangerous, as it's difficult to get a grip on Xiao either way. Even if the circumstances of Xiao's switch to a davy vote earlier are a bit fishy, I'm still supportive of a davy lynch, so I can't inherently hold that against Xiao. I'm not averse to lynching Xiao, but at the same time, I kinda feel like hoping Xiao is a potential target and one of the assassins will take them out for us.

Toby: I'll start by saying, I don't think davy and Toby are assassins together, and I get the impression that if davy is an assassin, Toby could potentially be his cold target based on what could be seen as davy's earlier subtle push toward Toby. In my DM to Specs I said that I felt like a lot of Toby's earlier posts were too much in agreement with davy (and at the time I felt like assassin Toby wouldn't want to potentially be seen as buddying up with someone who has such a potential assassin spotlight on them), but looking back on Toby's earlier posts I'm not really sure why I thought that (I think it was because this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436905#msg436905) that I felt was favoring an ignorant town, and davy backing Toby up; idk?); I don't think Toby agreed with davy nearly as much as I assumed he did. That being said, if davy isn't an assassin, I feel like Toby is more likely to be an assassin. It might just be burnout from last game + burnout from this game from seeing davy and I go back and forth without a lot of room to pop into the discussion, but I agree that Toby's early contributions to the game felt a bit like they were coasting. His initial push toward inactive players could go 50/50; on one hand, he is right that it's good to get inactive players out of the way quickly, but at the same time, given that this is a day start game and not a night start (and two potential night kills running around) it might be worth to sit on inactives for just a little bit longer for a few reasons.

Neutral:
ThatHiddenCharacter: I got a good vibe from his initials posts, and I told him as much via PM (he reached out to me first). I liked how he seemed a bit more contrarian than some of the other players, in a genuine and not forced way. However, his PMs to me have been a bit strange and have definitely counteracted my initial feeling toward him. THC has described himself as an "an agent of chaos" so I don't know what to think about that. In addition, his recent take on Toby feels a bit forced or unnecessarily sloppy.

A# Minor: Earlier, I would've had a more favorable view of A#, but recent posts have left me feeling a bit ??? As A# is still a newer TWG player I've tried to adopt a more lenient stance rather than judging her I would I player I know has more experience under their belt. Overall, with davy and I sparring back and forth for much of the early game, I can get why she's felt intimidated to try and jump in, but overall I would strongly encourage her to try and overcome this and really dive into the game. Could lean higher depending on future actions.

therealmathguy: TZP (who knows him IRL) felt as if his relatively inactivity was suspicious for him, but at the same time he's still a new TWG player as far as I can tell. Overall, having made only two posts, I feel like he's the only player who doesn't have a solid D0 lean.

Slight Town Lean:
The Musical Poet: This has the potential to change later. Some of the things Poet said make me hesitant to to put her in the crosshairs just yet. Overall, I want to see more from her as she is able.

Town Lean:
TheZeldaPianist275: I think him claiming hot target as a wolf is the least likely possibility as it basically needlessly paints a target on his back from both sides (the other assassin if he himself is one, and extra scrutiny from town). I don't think he's 100% clear, but for the time being I suggest not lynching him this phase. A "wait and see" player, but likely to remain lower unless something drastic changes.

SpecsFlyer17: Specs is one of the players I've spoken with via PM (and the first I reached out to myself, as I got good vibes from his initial posts in the thread), and I get a good human vibe from his response. At the very least, he's maintaining a fair bit of scrutiny toward TZP (maybe just because he got burned by him last game :P).

Me Tier:
BlackDragonSlayer: very sus

I'm a bit tired, as I didn't really sleep well last night, but I plan to be around for phase end.

Reading these comments is making my head spin. I'm going to attempt to record all the info so I can slightly understand it better ;p;

math

Voting math for literally only posting twice this game and the only real take they gave was on TZP their irl friend which feels forced.

This is a day phase start, yes,  which means there's less to go off of than night start games. That's not to say nothing has happened so far but unless inactives  are cold targets, they aren't going to be the subject of a night kill and I'd rather give people who I can expect to post more, a better opportunity than someone who's barely going to post and we will never get a read off of.

Last game magnet almost made it to the final day phase but thankfully the random.org wolfing killed him so we were saved being in the awkward situation of taking a random leap and voting the player we'd had barely any evidence against in a LYLO.

I just think it's so easy during early day phases to vote someone for being a bit extra or a bit excited, or making an honest mistake and inactives just fly under the radar.

If we avoid lynching an active player today it also means we have more content to base our suspicions on by next day phase, whereas math guy seems like he'll make maybe 2 more posts by day 2 lol

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 04:01:19 PMunless inactives  are cold targets, they aren't going to be the subject of a night kill

I disagree with that, given the possibility than inactive can still be hot targets or any other target an assassin might have an interest in killing.

QuoteI just think it's so easy during early day phases to vote someone for being a bit extra or a bit excited, or making an honest mistake and inactives just fly under the radar.

Fair point. I don't think an inactive lynch is inherently bad, just imo we have better targets already, and there's no reason to needlessly stall the game. If there weren't any good targets I'd be inclined to fully agree with you.

QuoteIf we avoid lynching an active player today it also means we have more content to base our suspicions on by next day phase, whereas math guy seems like he'll make maybe 2 more posts by day 2 lol

Also fair, but an alternative is that everybody makes an effort to be more active rather than than a few players being "the active player." Generally throughout the course of a game, I'd say it's a good idea if activity is roughly equivalently distributed rather than one or two players completely monopolizing the discussion.

@BDS just to note : I don't think I've agreed with Davy on anything if I'm to be honest

I didn't agree with his plans
And I made a comment that certain things shouldn't be revealed to topic which Davy followed up and agreed with me on

But saying that I'm not sure if you've also realised that since your suspicion paragraph on me seems to go round in a circle where you realise I haven't actually agreed with Davy as you apparently though so lol

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 04:14:28 PM@BDS just to note : I don't think I've agreed with Davy on anything if I'm to be honest

I didn't agree with his plans
And I made a comment that certain things shouldn't be revealed to topic which Davy followed up and agreed with me on

I pointed that out. I think at the time I saw davy's agreement with you and mixed that up as you agreeing with davy. Also, I'll have to go back and check, but I think there was another post davy made that made it seems like you were agreeing with him, but that's also up in the air.

QuoteBut saying that I'm not sure if you've also realised that since your suspicion paragraph on me seems to go round in a circle where you realise I haven't actually agreed with Davy as you apparently though so lol

Everything I said is still true (I don't think you and davy are assassins together, and if davy is an assassin, you're probably his cold target), just for slightly different reasoning than it was at the time I initially came up with the idea.

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 01:24:25 PMThat was my feeling too, and because I was just called neutral and Specs was called townie. I wonder if Specs could be THC's ward and he's paid extra attention to trying to make him look positive to the topic.

Alternatively maybe I'm his ward and he's just wanted me to appear vague as to not be a wolfing target. It could also just be genuine and maybe I'm being held to a higher standard as I was more active last game lol

Shoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 04:24:10 PMShoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

Mind giving a quick rundown on your game thoughts so far?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 04:11:00 PM1. I disagree with that, given the possibility than inactive can still be hot targets or any other target an assassin might have an interest in killing.

2. Fair point. I don't think an inactive lynch is inherently bad, just imo we have better targets already, and there's no reason to needlessly stall the game. If there weren't any good targets I'd be inclined to fully agree with you.

3. Also fair, but an alternative is that everybody makes an effort to be more active rather than than a few players being "the active player." Generally throughout the course of a game, I'd say it's a good idea if activity is roughly equivalently distributed rather than one or two players completely monopolizing the discussion.

I split what you said into numbers so I can reply better on my phone

1. I mean sure they could be hot targets, but with math for example, he's posting so little it would be difficult for the assassin's to read him as a hot target. I'm not sure what strategy an assassin might have in trying to find their hot targets, but I'd probably just target players as normal and hope towards end of game the hot targets die by default

2. I mean that's your opinion. I just think often day 1 it's the more enthusiastic players that make a slip up and get read wrong and being enthusiastic doesn't inherently make you either wolfy or human. This would match Davys case where he's being read for swaying his opinion and trying to come up with strategies when that could all just be genuine day 1 enthusiasm. Xiao is another suspicion I guess which I could consider because he actually has been quieter than last game, where he threw out a lot more jokes and filler posts during day 1 compared to this game. Xiao also was incredibly hard to read in the end game LYLO. But I still honestly detest letting someone who has posted twice stay over others lol

3. I mean sure but will math guy for example be more active ? Magnet promised to be more active last game many times and didn't

We also don't really know how many mislynches we have this game and as the game goes on we will naturally have more content and 'evidence' against players who are more active which will make us less inclined to lynch an inactive posting twice a phase lol. I'll at least feel better going into day 2  knowing math guy isn't there and don't need to consider him lol, whereas if we lynched an active player and they're a normal human I'll have regrets we don't have their opinions around going into day 2 and we didn't give them a chance

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 04:28:55 PM1. I mean sure they could be hot targets, but with math for example, he's posting so little it would be difficult for the assassin's to read him as a hot target. I'm not sure what strategy an assassin might have in trying to find their hot targets, but I'd probably just target players as normal and hope towards end of game the hot targets die by default

Sure, but I'd like to hope that the hot targets are more careful than to obviously reveal themselves like that. :P In a situation where inactive players aren't lynched, the assassin(s) might be forced to go after them (of course, that highly depends on cardflips), which would probably be the most ideal for town.

Quote2. I mean that's your opinion. I just think often day 1 it's the more enthusiastic players that make a slip up and get read wrong and being enthusiastic doesn't inherently make you either wolfy or human. This would match Davys case where he's being read for swaying his opinion and trying to come up with strategies when that could all just be genuine day 1 enthusiasm. Xiao is another suspicion I guess which I could consider because he actually has been quieter than last game, where he threw out a lot more jokes and filler posts during day 1 compared to this game. Xiao also was incredibly hard to read in the end game LYLO. But I still honestly detest letting someone who has posted twice stay over others lol

If you feel that way, then personally I feel like Xiao would be better as a D0 lynch than an inactive, since both Xiao and an inactive player are essentially wildcards, but Xiao has more potential to be dangerous as an assassin (if someone is truly an inactive assassin, they'd probably forgot to submit their kill).

Quote3. I mean sure but will math guy for example be more active ? Magnet promised to be more active last game many times and didn't

True. Depending on the results of today's cardflip of whoever gets lynched I'm not averse to reconsidering this D1. By that point we can at least say that they will continue to be inactive.

QuoteWe also don't really know how many mislynches we have this game and as the game goes on we will naturally have more content and 'evidence' against players who are more active which will make us less inclined to lynch an inactive posting twice a phase lol. I'll at least feel better going into day 2  knowing math guy isn't there and don't need to consider him lol, whereas if we lynched an active player and they're a normal human I'll have regrets we don't have their opinions around going into day 2 and we didn't give them a chance

True, we don't know how many mislynches we have, which is part of the reason why we should start targeting suspicious players early. I don't think it would be good to end up in a lategame situation where all the suspicious players are left alive (granted, a lategame situation where all the suspicious players are gone and it's only inactive lefts isn't much better).

And given how sporadically mathguy has posted, if he's a hot target, do you think he would be around close enough for him to claim as a hot target (and for us to wait long enough to see if anyone counterclaims) AND for us to not scramble for a backup lynch?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 04:44:53 PMAnd given how sporadically mathguy has posted, if he's a hot target, do you think he would be around close enough to the end of the phase for him to claim as a hot target (and for us to wait long enough to see if anyone counterclaims) AND for us to not scramble for a backup lynch?

fixed

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 04:01:19 PMVoting math for literally only posting twice this game and the only real take they gave was on TZP their irl friend which feels forced.

I can explain my reasoning further if it would help it seem less forced.
I see it like this: claiming hot target has 3 cases.

Claim HT, actually is HT: Town may choose to believe and not lynch, assassins have to mindgame but now they are alerted to it and don't have to guess as much

Claim HT, actually "regular townie": goal here is to raise suspicions to alleviate pressure from an actual HT, but there's a chance an assassin already knows who he is. Seems like the riskiest play of the three.

Claim HT, actually assassin: alleviate pressure from self to avoid lynch, pretty self-explanatory

I know we're mindgaming so there's gonna be some wrenches thrown but this stood out to me. I'll stick with my safety pick until I see more

First and foremost sorry this is your first game math and I'm wanting you lynched day 1 but a games a game lol

But I want to actually draw everyone's attention to 2/3 of maths posts:

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 23, 2023, 08:59:15 PMI'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

Math takes particular notice to TZPs hot target claim and tries to open further discussion to see what other people think of the claim. Interesting considering assassins are keen to kill their hot targets.

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 04:24:10 PMShoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

And then wanted to make a claim he doesn't realise assassins know the wards. Making such a claim is supposed to read as 'oh well if he doesn't know that, then he's probably not the assassin' but this is twg and people lie and deceive

Now if math guy was active and said many things these wouldn't stick out to me as much, but considering there's 16 pages in this topic and above is nearly all the posts he's made this game and he's paid specific attention to responding to these 2 areas. I find sus that these are the only points he wanted to raise

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 04:26:35 PMMind giving a quick rundown on your game thoughts so far?

Other than what I just described, there has been some strange early finger pointing like Xiao to BDS, but I don't think it's enough for me to go off of. I don't think assassins are necessarily incentivized to push for a cold target day 0 unless to just alleviate pressure from their respective wards because I'm assuming they'll both go after their cold targets overnight.

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 04:52:08 PMFirst and foremost sorry this is your first game math and I'm wanting you lynched day 1 but a games a game lol

Hahaha I understand, we're all after that victory

I'll be back soon to say some more stuff, hopefully but for now, I actually feel comfortable keeping my vote on math

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 04:56:59 PMOther than what I just described, there has been some strange early finger pointing like Xiao to BDS, but I don't think it's enough for me to go off of. I don't think assassins are necessarily incentivized to push for a cold target day 0 unless to just alleviate pressure from their respective wards because I'm assuming they'll both go after their cold targets overnight

I'm on the road this weekend, sorry to have been a bit MIA. Will hopefully post more substantively but I want to say that I disagree strongly with this—if an assassin gets a cold target killed D0, that gives them much more latitude to start taking potshots at their hot target/other assassin/other assassin's ward N1.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 24, 2023, 05:31:00 PMI'm on the road this weekend, sorry to have been a bit MIA. Will hopefully post more substantively but I want to say that I disagree strongly with this—if an assassin gets a cold target killed D0, that gives them much more latitude to start taking potshots at their hot target/other assassin/other assassin's ward N1.

True, but what I mean is they wouldn't be incentivized to gun for someone off of little info when it'll become immediately suspicious.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 05:19:54 PMI'll be back soon to say some more stuff, hopefully but for now, I actually feel comfortable keeping my vote on math

:o I don't think that would be A# choice

so far, the only people that I've found suspicious are THC and math. for THC, I don't see the point of only rereading one person's posts — why only them? I know this has been said already, but no matter how I think of it, it doesn't make sense. also I found something else but I'm gonna have to go back and look for that



For math:

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 04:24:10 PMShoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

I've read some of those previous TWGs, and I've noticed that 75% of the time that someone says stuff like this, they're a wolf. feel free to correct me, but I find this incredibly strange. they could've forgotten, but I don't think you need to actually post that if that was the case ... ?


I was thinking of voting for xiao, but I don't think they're a threat to us right now :P

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 06:20:00 PM:o I don't think that would be A# choice

everyone change your vote to math specifically to punish him for this pun

Moving my vote from Davy to Poet mostly on the merits of the caginess about not wanting to leak info at the start of the game. Right now I believe Math is on the chopping block right now with 3 votes. With only an hour and a half or so left in the phase, I think that at the very least, it's probably safe to say that Math isn't a ward—I think someone would have been putting up more of a fight by now if he were. My gut is more on Poet right now, mostly because I believe Math's claim that he didn't know assassins knew their wards to be genuine.

Also, for the record I don't find the arguments against Davy "changing his plan" to be persuasive—reread what he said, he was clarifying a point, not backpedaling.

Not gonna be able to stay up for the phase rollover, so I'll check in tomorrow for the postmortem. Night all.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 24, 2023, 08:07:59 PM

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 06:20:00 PM:o I don't think that would be A# choice

everyone change your vote to math specifically to punish him for this pun

I actually didn't see that XD

What's the current votecount?

Quote from: Toby on September 24, 2023, 02:23:34 PMNow I feel like you're being borderline offensive considering I have made 26 posts to Specs 16 lol

Quantity does not equal quality. You only started providing actual notable discussion after my post. I really don't understand why this only makes sense to me. If we both survive the night, I'm starting to see you as my lynch candidate for tomorrow. I wasn't even really sus on you before, you've just been digging yourself into a hole, now I am sus of you.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 03:25:02 PMTHC has described himself as an "an agent of chaos" so I don't know what to think about that.

You say that like it hasn't been how I play TWG since I started. Remember TWG C? Ah, memories. Everyone thinks Xiao's a wild card, but I'm the real wild card.

And while BDS chose to not go until detail about the exchange, I have no issue providing context since I have nothing to hide. I told him that if he was an assassin and I was his ward, I would try and help him win. If we're being honest, there's nothing I really could have done to actually help him win and he didn't take the bait. I have no regrets.

Hot off the press, I have a crackpot theory that davy's a ward and Toby is the corresponding assassin (which also fits in with my earlier "either davy or Toby is an assassin, but not both" theory). I think could be part of the reason why Toby is trying to put some push behind such a hard-to-disagree-with lynch like mathguy.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 09:16:44 PMAnd while BDS chose to not go until detail about the exchange, I have no issue providing context since I have nothing to hide. I told him that if he was an assassin and I was his ward, I would try and help him win. If we're being honest, there's nothing I really could have done to actually help him win and he didn't take the bait. I have no regrets.

I had half a mind to try going along with it and seeing where it went, but I figured that if you were human it had more of a chance of causing an unnecessary amount of chaos with no real reward.

Here's what I have for the vote count:

1. A# Minor - Math
2. BlackDragonSlayer - davy
3. ThatHiddenCharacter - Math
4. XiaoMigros - davy
5. TheZeldaPianist275 - Poet
6. SpecsFlyer17 - A#
7. The Musical Poet - NO VOTE
8. Therealmathguy - Specs
9. Davy - Xiao
10. Toby - Math

That gives Math (3), davy (2), Poet (1), Specs (1), and A# (1). No vote from Poet atm

Thats not an official count, so if someone could check my work, that'd be great.

It seems about right on first glance?

I doubt that A# or Toby are going to be changing their votes. This'll be an interesting cardflip regardless.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:19:24 PMHot off the press, I have a crackpot theory that davy's a ward and Toby is the corresponding assassin (which also fits in with my earlier "either davy or Toby is an assassin, but not both" theory). I think could be part of the reason why Toby is trying to put some push behind such a hard-to-disagree-with lynch like mathguy.

From my position on the chopping block, it doesn't sound so crazy. I need to change my vote or I'm dead anyway so here goes:

Toby

honestly, I'd prefer to vote xiao or THC, but besides the fact that that wouldn't get us anywhere, I'd rather not cause a KitB...


although I feel bad for math...

What is a KitB?

"knife in the box". it's when two people have the same amount of votes, and one player will randomly be chosen to die. would rather not have that happen

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 09:30:37 PMHere's what I have for the vote count:

1. A# Minor - Math
2. BlackDragonSlayer - davy
3. ThatHiddenCharacter - Math
4. XiaoMigros - davy
5. TheZeldaPianist275 - Poet
6. SpecsFlyer17 - A#
7. The Musical Poet - NO VOTE
8. Therealmathguy - Specs
9. Davy - Xiao
10. Toby - Math

That gives Math (3), davy (2), Poet (1), Specs (1), and A# (1). No vote from Poet atm

Should also have Xiao (1) as well. My b

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:40:45 PM... when two or more people have...

fixed :P

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 09:10:27 PMQuantity does not equal quality. You only started providing actual notable discussion after my post. I really don't understand why this only makes sense to me. If we both survive the night, I'm starting to see you as my lynch candidate for tomorrow. I wasn't even really sus on you before, you've just been digging yourself into a hole, now I am sus of you.

what??? Toby seems to have been just as engaged as any other player (and actually reads old posts)

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 24, 2023, 09:35:20 PMFrom my position on the chopping block, it doesn't sound so crazy. I need to change my vote or I'm dead anyway so here goes:

Toby

I'm not planning to change my vote to Toby. I would prefer davy lynched in the off chance he's an assassin. If davy is an assassin, Toby would probably be his cold target.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:37:55 PMhonestly, I'd prefer to vote xiao or THC, but besides the fact that that wouldn't get us anywhere, I'd rather not cause a KitB...


although I feel bad for math...

I'm curious as to why you are suspicious enough of me to want to vote me.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 24, 2023, 09:41:46 PMwhat??? Toby seems to have been just as engaged as any other player (and actually reads old posts)

not that i am averse to lynching him if it comes down to that but

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 09:41:03 PMShould also have Xiao (1) as well. My b

so if I vote xiao, that'll cause a 3 way kitb

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 09:42:46 PMI'm curious as to why you are suspicious enough of me to want to vote me.

same with me

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 09:42:46 PMI'm curious as to why you are suspicious enough of me to want to vote me.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 24, 2023, 09:43:36 PMsame with me

as I said earlier, you two are of the only people I am even slightly suspicious of. I don't really want either of you dead yet, I just didn't want to keep my lame safety

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:45:57 PMas I said earlier, you two are the only people I am even slightly suspicious of. I don't really want either of you dead yet, I just didn't want to keep my lame safety

last-second modifications don't always go well

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:45:57 PMas I said earlier, you two are of the only people I am even slightly suspicious of. I don't really want either of you dead yet, I just didn't want to keep my lame safety

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 05:19:54 PMI'll be back soon to say some more stuff, hopefully but for now, I actually feel comfortable keeping my vote on math

???

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:45:57 PMas I said earlier, you two are of the only people I am even slightly suspicious of. I don't really want either of you dead yet, I just didn't want to keep my lame safety

That feels contradictory.

Math currently has 3. No KitB unless davy picks up another

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:49:01 PM???

at that point, I didn't notice toby's (?) vote and thought he wasn't gonna die yet

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 09:50:55 PMMath currently has 3. No KitB unless davy picks up another

was gonna switch my vote to someone else. that would've caused it

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:52:55 PMwas gonna switch my vote to someone else. that would've caused it

Ah, I see

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 09:50:55 PMMath currently has 3. No KitB unless davy picks up another

If Math changed his vote to davy and someone else voted for davy... no KitB!!! :P

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:51:45 PMat that point, I didn't notice toby's (?) vote and thought he wasn't gonna die yet

...

That feels like a bit of a stretch to believe.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:49:55 PMThat feels contradictory.

I am sort of suspicious of them, but I'm not sure if it's actual suspicion or just me trying to come up with something better than a safety. so I don't really want them to die yet

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:54:57 PM...

That feels like a bit of a stretch to believe.

I came home from being out for like 4 hours and hadn't really read the thread yet

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:54:07 PMIf Math changed his vote to davy and someone else voted for davy... no KitB!!! :P

I think I have to now

Davy

welp.

Now Math and davy both have 3?

...yep :-X

I don't want a KitB.

Davy

...interesting.

um


davy ig

don't kill me for this

Also interesting. I agree, but interesting.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 09:59:47 PM...interesting.

Well, phase was ending in less than a minute as far as I know and a KitB wouldn't be helpful. Like I said, I wasn't against a davy lynch, so I'd rather change my vote to him than allow a KitB.

*waits anxiously for cardflip*

*picture of monekys*

where cardflip

The tension is palpable.

I wanna know if I was right!!!!! :P

Hello (hello, hello)
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?

Actually post the cardflip if you can hear me

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 31, 2023, 07:21:33 PMthe suspense is killing me  :o

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 10:12:42 PMHello (hello, hello)
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?

Actually post the cardflip if you can hear me

I can hear you!


um... davy was an assassin! XD this is just a joke

I'm here earlier, though again, not exactly on time.

Just let me verify real quick...

Let's make use of these last 13 minutes I still have.

Very suspicious of mathguy now. He was okay with my plan of town not defending themselves, yet went after me to safe himself from getting lynched.

VOTECOUNT 0.2

(no longer tracking vote history b/c its confusing when you have to use the bbcode editor like I do)

davy – (6) – XiaoMigros, BlackDragonSlayer, TheZeldaPianist275, threalmathguy, ThatHiddenCharacter, A# Minor
threalmathguy – (1) – Toby
XiaoMigros – (1) – davy

davy was axed Day 0. He was the Blue Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

Night 1 is now active and will conclude Monday, 25 September 2023, 11:59PM US Central.

... didn't the phase end 50 minutes ago?

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 10:50:06 PM... didn't the phase end 50 minutes ago?

nvm, got ninja'd

---

well, that's nice.

Deathpost:

TZP removed his vote for me. I should not have been insta'd yet.

That being said: screw all y'all for insta'ing me in my sleep again when we had a 72 hour day

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 24, 2023, 10:49:42 PMdavy was axed Day 0. He was the Blue Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

...welp.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 10:50:06 PM... didn't the phase end 50 minutes ago?

I think there was some DST confusion involved, maybe? I don't think it's a big problem anyhow.

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 10:53:14 PMDeathpost:

TZP removed his vote for me. I should not have been insta'd yet.

That being said: screw all y'all for insta'ing me in my sleep again when we had a 72 hour day

For the record, there was no insta active, just a Day 0 extension condition. And even if TZP's vote wasn't there, you still would've died because that was, in fact, the full 72hr deadline.

Speaking of deadlines...here's a countdown. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/fight?iso=20230925T235959&p0=64&msg=Buttbuttin%27s+Creed+Night+1&font=cursive)

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 10:50:06 PM... didn't the phase end 50 minutes ago?

Yeah, the phases end at 10pm Pacific time, so it technically ended roughly an hour ago.

I think this cardflip is the worst outcome. Not only does it play right into the blue assassin's hand, but with 6 (5?) people voting for davy that really doesn't narrow things down.

welp, that absolutely sucks. it's not like we could go back and scan people's votes... :P


ninja'd: yeah, BDS put it a lot better than I did

wow.

I'll save most of my thoughts for Day 1 when they're more relevant, but the influx of davy voters at the end isn't a good look.

Personally, I think THC and A# (A# specifically in combination with... other behaviors close to phase end) both look worse from this, though:

Quote from: davy on September 24, 2023, 10:48:28 PMVery suspicious of mathguy now. He was okay with my plan of town not defending themselves, yet went after me to safe himself from getting lynched.

this is also a valid point, and I think combining both this and the fact that he was on the cold target lynch also makes him look worse as well (plus, I don't think he was a hot target). Thanks for leaving us with this o7

Oddly enough, even though Xiao was also on the lynch too, I think it's a null for Xiao since on account of on the davy train early when the lynch was far from certain.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 11:05:19 PMwow.

I'll save most of my thoughts for Day 1 when they're more relevant, but the influx of davy voters at the end isn't a good look.

I don't think it's a good idea to save thoughts unless you also share them via PM with someone you trust.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 24, 2023, 11:07:48 PMI don't think it's a good idea to save thoughts unless you also share them via PM with someone you trust.

Fair, I suppose keeping thoughts doesn't really help anyone.

Basically, the influx of last minute davy voters is a bad look. You mentioned this earlier, but the Blue Assassin probably saw the opportunity to get his Cold Target lynched once davy votes started gaining traction.

BDS and Xiao had their votes in pretty early, but THC's, A#'s, and Math's all came late.
Math's was first, which seemed to be in response to BDS's last minute plea, although that plea seemed to be more of a post directed at avoiding a potential KitB (that A# was talking about), not necessarily lynching davy.
THC and A# followed suit almost immediately, both seeming to act to avoid a KitB when davy matched Math's votes.

God dammit, davy is dead and I didn't get to see it. ;p;

Jokes aside, I seriously need to be more active, otherwise I won't be able to do anything, especially since I don't know how to work with the information I have been given.

I know this sounds odd, but I actually agree with specs and BDS... I was being a bit impulsive there. :P


TZP, I am trying my best to not go straight to pointing my fingers at you right now...

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 24, 2023, 11:21:20 PM... both seeming to act to avoid a KitB when davy matched Math's votes.

would you mind explaining this? that wording is confusing me

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 11:28:38 PMwould you mind explaining this? that wording is confusing me

Yeah, when Math voted for davy, davy had 3 votes. Math also had 3 votes, creating a KitB situation. That's what I meant by matched. A tie vote.

Wow I did not see a Davy vote actually happening lol, that's so sad considering he wanted everyone to have their suspicions together, outlined a day in advance and before his sleep to avoid getting lynched off in his dreams

Why do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)

I find lynching Davy day 0 in this way quite offensive given how useful he could have been later in the game.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)

fr

also a#'s behavior has seemed pretty sus

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)

You and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 02:42:36 AMalso a#'s behavior has seemed pretty sus

What about her behavior is sus? I actually feel better about her now than I did before. She's started more actively participating and providing input. If it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you. More often than not, that's a very wolfy thing to do, unless you had already been showing suspicion towards the person beforehand. If that's not the case, then I would like to hear the actual reasoning.

Davy?? Seriously? Off of a vote rush in the last *3 minutes* of the phase??

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMI find lynching Davy day 0 in this way quite offensive given how useful he could have been later in the game.

100% agree, that's a slap in the face. Also, the game would have been a lot more fun with Davy around for later phases.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:05:40 AMIf it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you.

Thanks for clarifying, but yeah obviously it is

idk I don't quite understand why they would change their vote to davy and the way they did it also felt a little off, not daring to make the first move like TZP did

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:02:44 AMYou and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.

I mean sure and that's my struggle

But also rounding up votes and suggesting everyone vote for Davy 6 minutes before phase end when we've had 72 hours to make up our decision isn't optimal human play lol. He succeeded in getting an additional 3 votes lol.

I mean I don't see any assassin being so blatantly obvious about going after their target and it is BDS after all who is hard to read for being weird. Back when I played more if I recall right BDS was a typical early lynch for weird behaviour but now apparently he's a typical night 1 kill so stuff has maybe changed lol.

I'm also allowed to say things as they happen and if someone does someone suspicious im going to say it lol. Am I supposed to sit on the fact that what BDS did was strange ?

I think we should definitely analyse the last 3 votes that were placed, that being:
Math, then THC, then A#

Math voted to save himself which is fair, but as Davy mentioned he agreed with humans letting themselves die which contradicts. Before I start to reason his action id like math guy to give reason to that himself ?

THC voted to avoid the KitB, meaning he made the most import decider vote. I find this one most interesting as well considering he had Davy as neutral and math as his number 2 on his suspicion list:
 

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMAlrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.



math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

I also feel like in general, if you're going to vote between the veteran who's posted what 30 times this game or the newbie who's been inactive and posted like 4 times, it would also make sense to lynch the one that's least useful to town. But added to the fact he literally did say math guy was his number 2 suspicion but voted Davy, which saves math, I find that odd. He also seems to want to give BDS more respect for being a veteran but wanted to lynch another veteran over his number 2 suspicion so that's weird.

The benefit of assassin!THC doing this could be: math is his ward, davy was his cold target, or maybe just took the chance of lynching a veteran while the decision felt like it could be his to make ?


A# placed the final vote and by this time davy already had most votes. So assassin!A# didn't need to place a vote on davy to save any ward!math or secure target!davy being killed. It wasn't needed so she's probably a human just being a bit chaotic/impulsive and I think her vote on math was a safety anyway

I actually just looked back and I see now that THC swapped his vote from math onto Davy which turned the 3-3 vote into a 2-4. I didn't realise that THC already had a vote on math

So the idea that math could have been THC's ward is out the window

But I still don't see why you'd prefer to lynch someone else over letting your number 2 suspicion be in a KITb, I literally don't see the benefit to that.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)

I get where you're coming from, with the mindgames approach of "BDS obviously wouldn't make such a stupid play as an assassin, so he's not the assassin," but I applied similar logic to davy ("an experienced player like davy wouldn't be suggesting such an glaringly obviously terrible plan unless he had something to gain from it") and we saw how that worked out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

QuoteI find lynching Davy day 0 in this way quite offensive given how useful he could have been later in the game.

Davy being the cold target sucks, but I think given the whole fiasco early in the game, I feel like davy would've just a tripping point later in the game regardless (and I know you probably wouldn't agree given that I don't think you were especially suspicious of his behavior).

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:05:40 AMWhat about her behavior is sus? I actually feel better about her now than I did before. She's started more actively participating and providing input. If it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you. More often than not, that's a very wolfy thing to do, unless you had already been showing suspicion towards the person beforehand. If that's not the case, then I would like to hear the actual reasoning.

imo, she's giving off huge "first-time wolf syndrome" vibes, where she's unintentionally cracking under the pressure of being a wolf as a newer player—especially so with how much potentially rests on each assassin's shoulders.

Though I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd. Perhaps Xiao is the red assassin (perhaps believing, like I did, that davy was much more likely to be an assassin) and A# is the red cold target, and Xiao is hoping to play catch-up with the blue assassin by once again getting on a promising lynch early.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 07:27:27 AMBut also rounding up votes and suggesting everyone vote for Davy 6 minutes before phase end when we've had 72 hours to make up our decision isn't optimal human play lol. He succeeded in getting an additional 3 votes lol.

I tried getting people to vote for davy earlier in the phase so we could avoid the exact situation that happened. Several hours before the end of the phase I tried to get people to change their votes to davy by pushing against the mathguy lynch. I returned to the thread roughly an hour before phase end and tried to get people to change their votes to davy to avoid a KitB or last-minute vote change. People did not change their votes until right before the end of the phase, and TWGers are infamous for doing.

I went after someone whose behavior I thought indicated an assassin who made a bold gambit early (not expecting nearly as much pushback as he ended up getting), and when put up against I lynch I thought was objectively worse, I continued to advocate for my suspicions.

Say what you will, but I'm consistent. :P

QuoteI mean I don't see any assassin being so blatantly obvious about going after their target and it is BDS after all who is hard to read for being weird. Back when I played more if I recall right BDS was a typical early lynch for weird behaviour but now apparently he's a typical night 1 kill so stuff has maybe changed lol.

I don't have a numerical breakdown, but IIRC most of the times I was lynched early, I was human. But by virtue of gradually becoming the most veteran player around, me being killed N1 became even more likely of a probability.

QuoteI'm also allowed to say things as they happen and if someone does someone suspicious im going to say it lol. Am I supposed to sit on the fact that what BDS did was strange ?

Your initial reaction is fair, and I don't hold it against you.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:50:39 AMimo, she's giving off huge "first-time wolf syndrome" vibes, where she's unintentionally cracking under the pressure of being a wolf as a newer player—especially so with how much potentially rests on each assassin's shoulders.

I have to admit that you're not wrong, I've reread some of my posts and they can come across that way (and I'm actually not too sure why) :P

QuoteThough I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd. Perhaps Xiao is the red assassin (perhaps believing, like I did, that davy was much more likely to be an assassin) and A# is the red cold target, and Xiao is hoping to play catch-up with the blue assassin by once again getting on a promising lynch early.

... well, that's isn't impossible, I did find that strange as well. but then again, there's always the possibility of "xiao just being xiao" ...


I'd also like to mention that I was ninja'd while trying to change my vote. if I had seen THC's post, I wouldn't have voted davy as well :P

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 07:43:21 AMI also feel like in general, if you're going to vote between the veteran who's posted what 30 times this game or the newbie who's been inactive and posted like 4 times, it would also make sense to lynch the one that's least useful to town. But added to the fact he literally did say math guy was his number 2 suspicion but voted Davy, which saves math, I find that odd. He also seems to want to give BDS more respect for being a veteran but wanted to lynch another veteran over his number 2 suspicion so that's weird.

The benefit of assassin!THC doing this could be: math is his ward, davy was his cold target, or maybe just took the chance of lynching a veteran while the decision felt like it could be his to make ?

THC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

Regardless, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:06:59 AMI'd also like to mention that I was ninja'd while trying to change my vote. if I had seen THC's post, I wouldn't have voted davy as well :P

Considering that the forum alerts you when someone else has made a post in the same thread, I have my doubts. This is the second time you've used the "I didn't see someone's vote" excuse. The first time was somewhat believable, but this time, not so much.

There's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:11:03 AMThere's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.

Even if you genuinely didn't see THC's post, I feel there was a good reason you waited until the literal last minute (nay, last seconds!!!) to vote—perhaps looking to use the excuse of how you were under sudden pressure and just spontaneously changed your vote to try and avoid a KitB.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:50:39 AMThough I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd.

???

I like to come to my own conclusions and not mindlessly tag on to the group

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:11:03 AMConsidering that the forum alerts you when someone else has made a post in the same thread, I have my doubts. This is the second time you've used the "I didn't see someone's vote" excuse. The first time was somewhat believable, but this time, not so much.

I know. I was in a hurry and... I basically ignored the notification

QuoteThere's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.

actually, math voted at 11:57, and I was only gonna change my vote because of that, so I took a minute or two to decide what to do. when was that opportunity that you're talking about?


ninja'd

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:14:01 AMEven if you genuinely didn't see THC's post, I feel there was a good reason you waited until the literal last minute (nay, last seconds!!!) to vote—perhaps looking to use the excuse of how you were under sudden pressure and just spontaneously changed your vote to try and avoid a KitB.

I can't think of stuff like that at midnight :P

it did an emoji i wanted to do ???

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:07:29 AMTHC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

So why are you calling this out then? How is that in the towns interest

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 07:43:21 AMMath voted to save himself which is fair, but as Davy mentioned he agreed with humans letting themselves die which contradicts. Before I start to reason his action id like math guy to give reason to that himself ?

I'm trying to sniff out the wards. Like I said, my mindset has changed in how I view ward play now. You can choose to believe that or not but considering I didn't get much support until the very end of the phase, I figured I might not be a ward. So therefore I don't want a guaranteed townie going down.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 10:16:23 AM???

I like to come to my own conclusions and not mindlessly tag on to the group

And yet that's exactly what you did; the only difference is that you didn't openly call attention to it.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:16:32 AMI know. I was in a hurry and... I basically ignored the notification

...

Quoteactually, math voted at 11:57, and I was only gonna change my vote because of that, so I took a minute or two to decide what to do. when was that opportunity that you're talking about?

You were present in the thread well beforehand, during the 5+ minute timeframe I mentioned.

You using Math changing his vote as a reason to change your own vote rubs me the wrong way. Were you actually hoping to lynch someone you thought was suspicious, or just going with the flow and hoping you blended in and looked helpful/human?

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 10:16:52 AMit did an emoji i wanted to do ???

forums

really disappointing when you wanna put like 8 questions marks at the end of a sentence and it goes like ????????

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 10:17:33 AMSo why are you calling this out then? How is that in the towns interest

What do you mean? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. What isn't in the town's interest?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:50:39 AMbut I applied similar logic to davy ("an experienced player like davy wouldn't be suggesting such an glaringly obviously terrible plan unless he had something to gain from it") and we saw how that worked out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Davy's plan was not glaringly, obviously terrible. It wasn't even a little terrible. I am baffled by why anyone found him suspicious because of it. Five of you voted for him and not all five of you are assassins. That was an awful lynch.

Ninja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:59:30 AMI tried getting people to vote for davy earlier in the phase so we could avoid the exact situation that happened. Several hours before the end of the phase I tried to get people to change their votes to davy by pushing against the mathguy lynch. I returned to the thread roughly an hour before phase end and tried to get people to change their votes to davy to avoid a KitB or last-minute vote change. People did not change their votes until right before the end of the phase, and TWGers are infamous for doing.

I went after someone whose behavior I thought indicated an assassin who made a bold gambit early (not expecting nearly as much pushback as he ended up getting), and when put up against I lynch I thought was objectively worse, I continued to advocate for my suspicions.

Say what you will, but I'm consistent. :P
I don't have a numerical breakdown, but IIRC most of the times I was lynched early, I was human. But by virtue of gradually becoming the most veteran player around, me being killed N1 became even more likely of a probability.
Your initial reaction is fair, and I don't hold it against you.

Yeah I fully agree you often got lynched early as a human, in fact if I remember right as a wolf you survived a lot better lol. But I do remember feeling like I just had to refuse to find you suspicious by default because you're personality of over explaining and saying sometimes the obvious came across sus to me but it was just you lol

One question tho, you said you thought voting math guy was objectively worse, can you expand on that? Why ?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 10:24:38 AMNinja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

@BDS to be clear

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 25, 2023, 10:24:00 AMI'm trying to sniff out the wards. Like I said, my mindset has changed in how I view ward play now. You can choose to believe that or not but considering I didn't get much support until the very end of the phase, I figured I might not be a ward. So therefore I don't want a guaranteed townie going down.

Considering there were two votes on davy for most of the phase, you did have some degree of support in an opposition lynch. You changed your vote to Toby for some reason immediately after I suggested a (openly crazy) theory about Toby being an assassin with davy as his ward and only change it significantly later. The whole vote rush at the end could've potentially been avoided had you voted for davy initially instead of Toby.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:07:29 AMTHC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

Regardless, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

I have to say I don't agree with this take at all. And again I feel like you've suggested things humans could be doing to throw the assassin off. And the announcement of that only benefits assassins and hurts humans, especially during night phase

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:24:22 AMYou were present in the thread well beforehand, during the 5+ minute timeframe I mentioned.

You using Math changing his vote as a reason to change your own vote rubs me the wrong way. Were you actually hoping to lynch someone you thought was suspicious, or just going with the flow and hoping you blended in and looked helpful/human?

:o


as I said earlier, I wasn't really suspicious of anybody (or not suspicious enough to vote them), so I was just trying to stop a kitb from happening. so kinda going with the flow, but not necessarily trying to blend in


also, if I changed my vote to anyone else, davy would've been lynched anyway

Why two multiple people now said they changed their vote from math to vote for Davy to avoid a kitB

If your main suspicion is math and thats your vote and it could be a kitB between math and Davy, why would you change your vote to Davy when the KitB could land on math dying ?? A kitB isn't a bad thing if it's the only chance you have of your vote being lynched ??

A# are you just copying THCs logic for his vote switch

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 10:24:38 AMDavy's plan was not glaringly, obviously terrible. It wasn't even a little terrible. I am baffled by why anyone found him suspicious because of it. Five of you voted for him and not all five of you are assassins. That was an awful lynch.

I firmly maintain that it was, for the plethora of reasons I brought forth throughout the phase. And the fact that davy went so strongly to support it (needlessly so!!!) made it feel like he was either trying to double down on winning people over because backing down would look suspicious, or intentionally trying to distract from other discussion.

QuoteNinja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

Why would I not? It's information we need to consider.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 10:24:54 AMOne question tho, you said you thought voting math guy was objectively worse, can you expand on that? Why ?

I already answered that when responding to your initial mathguy vote, for example (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437040#msg437040).

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 10:28:37 AMI have to say I don't agree with this take at all. And again I feel like you've suggested things humans could be doing to throw the assassin off. And the announcement of that only benefits assassins and hurts humans, especially during night phase

I disagree. I think not saying it hurts town and favors the assassins. Saying it allows town better analysis for lynch target but doesn't provide assassins with better analysis for nightkill target.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:39:33 AMI disagree. I think not saying it hurts town and favors the assassins. Saying it allows town better analysis for lynch target but doesn't provide assassins with better analysis for nightkill target.

To fully clarify, THC's behavior is very unlikely to make him a nightkill target, even if he is intentionally trying to make himself a target. Saying what I said doesn't change anything about that.

Meanwhile, if THC is a yolo townie trying to get himself lynched on the off-chance he's a ward (which his prior behavior indicates is a real possibility), saying that gives potential pause to town for going after THC instead of a better lynch target.

As I said, if THC is town, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 10:38:18 AMWhy two multiple people now said they changed their vote from math to vote for Davy to avoid a kitB

If your main suspicion is math and thats your vote and it could be a kitB between math and Davy, why would you change your vote to Davy when the KitB could land on math dying ?? A kitB isn't a bad thing if it's the only chance you have of your vote being lynched ??

A# are you just copying THCs logic for his vote switch

actually, no, I said this (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437069#msg437069) before he even arrived


also don't forget that my vote for math was a safety (I was OK with it before I noticed someone else voted for him) :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:39:33 AM.
I disagree. I think not saying it hurts town and favors the assassins. Saying it allows town better analysis for lynch target but doesn't provide assassins with better analysis for nightkill target.

I think it does provide assassins with better analysis for a night kill, and to help with that during a night phase isn't good for town

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:45:12 AMactually, no, I said this (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437069#msg437069) before he even arrived


also don't forget that my vote for math was a safety (I was OK with it before I noticed someone else voted for him) :P

Fair enough you said it before

But also you did say you were comfortable with your vote on math at one point I'm sure

But at least you did suggest wanting to vote either Xiao or Davy earlier so I'll give you that

QUESTION FOR THE HOST

Kai, if one assassin goes down tonight either because of a direct hit or because of a ward, does that assassin's kill still go through?

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 10:59:46 AMI think it does provide assassins with better analysis for a night kill, and to help with that during a night phase isn't good for town

I disagree, for the exact reasons I said. If I thought it did, I wouldn't have said it, and I maintain that about everything I've said.

You're forgetting the fact that, with two night kills running around, there's still a very good chance I could be targeted—I'd say the only reason I wouldn't be targeted is if I was a ward, but that would only protect me from one assassin. I already shared the original inkling of my thoughts on THC (post-vote) with Specs via PM. On the off-chance that Specs is an assassin, my only other options to ensure the info gets out in the event of death is to either PM another player or post my thoughts publicly. I saw no reason not to post my thoughts on the matter publicly.

On this flipside, this is the second time I feel you've been advocating for ignorant town (i.e. withholding information town that's beneficial for town to consider). I think it's very possible you, as an assassin, were ok with either davy or mathguy being lynched.

I don't like the fact that you've been looking at information that's helpful for town to have and saying that it's information that's bad to share.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:28:12 AMConsidering there were two votes on davy for most of the phase, you did have some degree of support in an opposition lynch. You changed your vote to Toby for some reason immediately after I suggested a (openly crazy) theory about Toby being an assassin with davy as his ward and only change it significantly later. The whole vote rush at the end could've potentially been avoided had you voted for davy initially instead of Toby.

I trusted Davy more than Toby (sorry Toby) since there could be merit that Toby's lynch push for me due to inactivity could be an easy cover for me being his CT, so I was hoping some people like you and THC, who had openly expressed suspicions of Toby, would switch your votes.

Math, mi amor, I feel like my first instinct on you was right after all. Riddle me this.

You claim that initially, you didn't realize the assassins knew the wards, and that made you okay with going along with Davy's plan of going gently if you're a regular human. However, you also claim that once you realized that wards were known to assassins, that soured the deal and it made you want to argue since you were on the chopping block.

What confuses me is this: given that the assassins know the wards, doesn't that make it *better* for you to allow yourself to be lynched as a regular human? A significant part of human strategy here is to put wards on the chopping block and watch who gets uncomfortable with that to try to scope out the assassins. That's a huge part of why Davy's plan could have worked (and could still work). So you say you changed your mind on the plan because you misunderstood the rules, but once you understood those rules, I think that should have made you MORE down with the plan. What gives?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 11:17:40 AMI don't like the fact that you've been looking at information that's helpful for town to have and saying that it's information that's bad to share.

You literally PMd me helpful information you didn't want to share with the topic what are you talking about

Not all info needs to be said unless it's relevant, and especially if keeping unknown strategies or optimal play hidden is a benefit to town

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:45:12 AMactually, no, I said this (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437069#msg437069) before he even arrived


also don't forget that my vote for math was a safety (I was OK with it before I noticed someone else voted for him) :P

That goes back to my original issue of you not seeing Toby's mathguy vote in the first place, which is something that we can't really prove or disprove either way.

And I feel like, if it were truly just a safety vote, you would've been ok with changing it earlier—but that's just how I generally view safety votes being used.

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 25, 2023, 11:18:21 AMI trusted Davy more than Toby (sorry Toby) since there could be merit that Toby's lynch push for me due to inactivity could be an easy cover for me being his CT, so I was hoping some people like you and THC, who had openly expressed suspicions of Toby, would switch your votes.

All right, that... sort of makes sense. I still feel like the original Toby vote was too... opportune, though.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 11:22:49 AMYou literally PMd me helpful information you didn't want to share with the topic what are you talking about

Yes, because (as obvious as it is to say this) that was a different situation. Saying it publicly would have made a difference in that case.

QuoteNot all info needs to be said unless it's relevant, and especially if keeping unknown strategies or optimal play hidden is a benefit to town

And that does not apply in this case.

this game is a bloodbath

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 11:20:10 AMA significant part of human strategy here is to put wards on the chopping block and watch who gets uncomfortable with that to try to scope out the assassins.

Key sentence here. I was on the chopping block for hours but the scramble didn't happen until I changed my vote in the closing minutes. Therefore making me think I am not a ward

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 24, 2023, 08:38:04 PMWith only an hour and a half or so left in the phase, I think that at the very least, it's probably safe to say that Math isn't a ward—I think someone would have been putting up more of a fight by now if he were.

...a sentiment you seemed to share as well

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:24:22 AMAnd yet that's exactly what you did; the only difference is that you didn't openly call attention to it.

Your point being? I don't see how thats relevant

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:28:12 AMConsidering there were two votes on davy for most of the phase, you did have some degree of support in an opposition lynch. You changed your vote to Toby for some reason immediately after I suggested a (openly crazy) theory about Toby being an assassin with davy as his ward and only change it significantly later. The whole vote rush at the end could've potentially been avoided had you voted for davy initially instead of Toby.

BDS maybe I'm reading this completely wrong but it just sounds like a generic rookie move that could have done with some further thought behind it

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 11:24:52 AMAnd that does not apply in this case.

idk I feel like you of all people should know better? This is the type of analytical thought I've generally seen is kept to oneself, for good reason

youre not making much sense at all rn...

Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 01:58:42 PM:o

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 11:26:20 AMthis game is a bloodbath

and i thought the last one was bad lol

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 12:24:27 PMand i thought the last one was bad lol

SAME XD

bruh

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 12:15:04 PMYour point being? I don't see how thats relevant

You know you're pretty high up on most people's suspicion lists, and given the opportunity of a potential emerging A# suspicion, it's not surprising you'd jump on it—but instead of pointing out "hey, these other people brought up her suspicious behavior and I agree with you," you attempted to make it seem like an original thought so you wouldn't be called out for it.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 12:17:35 PMBDS maybe I'm reading this completely wrong but it just sounds like a generic rookie move that could have done with some further thought behind it

That's fair, I suppose.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 12:22:20 PMidk I feel like you of all people should know better? This is the type of analytical thought I've generally seen is kept to oneself, for good reason

youre not making much sense at all rn...

Yes, which is why I felt fine sharing it with the thread. If I thought it was in any way disadvantageous to share publicly, I would not have done so. As with Toby, you trying to suggest otherwise feels like a ploy to keep town ignorant by suggesting that beneficial information should not be shared.

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 25, 2023, 12:27:04 PMbruh

ur so funny lol

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 12:28:19 PMYou know you're pretty high up on most people's suspicion lists, and given the opportunity of a potential emerging A# suspicion, it's not surprising you'd jump on it

Well in case it wasn't clear I don't really mind being lynched- people don't tend to listen to me in endgame anyways because I can't write essays and being lynched at this point isn't even necessarily bad for town since idk what i am

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 12:28:19 PMAs with Toby, you trying to suggest otherwise feels like a ploy to keep town ignorant by suggesting that beneficial information should not be shared.

but this would have been best kept out of public eye, especially if one of the assassins isnt a vet

Quote from: threalmathguy on September 25, 2023, 12:05:30 PM...a sentiment you seemed to share as well

Correct. I don't think you're a ward at all, I think you're an assassin

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:07:29 AMTHC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

Regardless, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

I really don't understand why you think I'm intentionally trying to be suspicious. I legit am making plays I think are the best courses of action.

I want to responds to another post, but it's too far back for me to be able to quote it in this post, so I'll do it in a separate one.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 08:05:22 AMBut I still don't see why you'd prefer to lynch someone else over letting your number 2 suspicion be in a KITb, I literally don't see the benefit to that.

The assassins objectively have a lot more info than town does right now. We need to have as much control over the situation as we can. A KitB is randomly chosen, ergo no control over the outcome. I'd rather lynch someone I'm neutral on than let us lose control over the lynch. Keeping the KitB would've still had a 50% chance of killing davy anyway. I'm still concerned about you, Toby, but I still think math should be lynched this coming day phase.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 12:28:42 PMur so funny lol

I had to go off for an hour and I see 3 bloody pages with people manipulating each other and analyzing each other's messages. And I'm just here just staring at all this nonsense and wondering how the hell did this even happen. -v-

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 01:52:24 PMThe assassins objectively have a lot more info than town does right now. We need to have as much control over the situation as we can. A KitB is randomly chosen, ergo no control over the outcome. I'd rather lynch someone I'm neutral on than let us lose control over the lynch. Keeping the KitB would've still had a 50% chance of killing davy anyway.

I don't really follow this reasoning still or know what 'assassins objectively have a lot more info' has to do with it

All a KitB does is randomly choose between 2 people. It doesn't make us completely have no control over the lynch, it literally just randomly picks the 2 most favoured people. And objectively town had a lot more to lose with Davy being mislynched than math guy, so especially with math guy being your main suspicion I still don't see the benefit in the swap

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 12:47:41 PMbut this would have been best kept out of public eye, especially if one of the assassins isnt a vet

I don't think this would be a newbie vs. veteran issue, but rather a "people paying attention to the basic facts of the game" vs. "people not paying attention to the basic facts of the game" issue. Town can be the latter and it is much riskier for a large number of town to be among the latter.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 01:48:37 PMI really don't understand why you think I'm intentionally trying to be suspicious. I legit am making plays I think are the best courses of action.

i honestly don't know what to think of you at this point

My prior thoughts are my best attempt.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 02:19:07 PMno control over the lynch

This is not what I said. I said no control over the outcome. As in the outcome of the random selection between the two. Even if it's more control than random selection of all players, it's still less control than we should have in this.

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 02:19:07 PMI don't really follow this reasoning still or know what 'assassins objectively have a lot more info' has to do with it

It has everything to do with it. The only town players with any info are the hot targets. Everyone else has nothing they know to be 100% true. Yet each assassin knows three people's roles: their ward, their cold target, and themselves. That makes it almost a 50% chance they will kill one of the roles they want dead and don't know which player they are. We are in a very tight spot in town and letting random chance dictate any aspect of the game, even if small, is a bad idea. We need as much control of the situation as we can get.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 02:40:20 PMWe need as much control of the situation as we can get.

So in your mind, choosing to lynch someone you think is human is preferable to having a KitB between someone you think is a human and someone you think is an assassin?

That doesn't make any sense! The thing that wins the game isn't controlling lynches, it's lynching assassins. Town should care about controlling the lynch BECAUSE it lets you lynch an assassin, not as an end in itself.

Dang, a lot of activity today.

Math's behavior at the end of D0 is a bit concerning to me. While he didn't seem to put much of a fight during most of the day having a lead, he still had control of the situation going into the final minutes. He was able to switch his vote to davy at the last minute to force a KitB at the very least.

I get self-preservation interests (it's no fun getting lynched), but that seemed a little too opportunistic given the situation. BDS unintentionally threw you a life-line with the "change a vote to davy and avoid the KitB" and he jumped on it immediately.

For someone who claimed to support davy's "humans shouldn't defend themselves, in order to draw out the Assassin", this whole situation feels oddly contradictory.

And for the record, there wasn't a KitB situation until Math changed his vote.

As far as this N1 phase, as unfortunate as it is to have two Assassins out there, there are some bright spots.

The Blue Assassin will likely be taking a shot in the dark, as their Cold Target is gone. This means they may hit the Red Ward or Red Assassin, which I think is simultaneously good for both the town and Blue Assassin. Yes, it advances their win condition, but they'll still have to uncover their Hot Target. It will then be a race between the town lynching the Blue Assassin or the Blue Ward, and the Blue Assassin killing/lynching the Blue Hot Target. I don't think that is a terrible place to be in, as each night will only have 1 killing, opposed to 2.

Regardless of what happens, I think getting the night killings down to 1 is key. That can come in the form of a correct D1 lynch, or a N1 Assassin killing their counterpart (directly or via the Ward).

We'll also get a lot of information tonight with a double card flip, which may render some of today's finger-pointing moot.

Regarding A#, I'm suspicious.

We've already talked about her last minute davy vote. Part of me feels like "Avoid the KitB!!!" was a cover for jumping on the davy train, e.i. killing a Cold Target.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 24, 2023, 09:59:56 PMum


davy ig

don't kill me for this

"don't kill me for this" feels like a poor thing to say, masking more malicious intentions.

Also, I don't have any direct quotes for this, but I feel like her gameplay thus far has been a lot of reacting to neutral things, rather than actually discussing pro-town strategies. Sorta like a need to contribute enough to not look sus; but also afraid to accidently spill something, resulting in few posts with town-heavy substance. It's just a vibe I have, so I don't want to sound too accusatory with that, however.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMdavy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.

math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

Now for THC. His vote was the one that changed a davy/Math KitB to a davy-only lynch.
Why did he do that?
He was more suspicious of Math (suspicious) than davy (neutral). Why change it from a 50% chance of lynching his suspicious candidate to a 0%, especially if he was neutral on davy. Seems like an odd move when he didn't appear to really have skin in that game.

I RETURN, minus one toe nail.

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 25, 2023, 03:26:17 PMBDS unintentionally threw you a life-line with the "change a vote to davy and avoid the KitB" and he jumped on it immediately.

...unintentionally? :P


I'm working on a revised suspicion list. Probably gonna keep it brief and mostly talk about changes since last time.

nice

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 25, 2023, 03:54:07 PMRegarding A#, I'm suspicious.

...

"don't kill me for this" feels like a poor thing to say, masking more malicious intentions.

that was a questionable thought that I decided to write down for some reason

QuoteAlso, I don't have any direct quotes for this, but I feel like her gameplay thus far has been a lot of reacting to neutral things, rather than actually discussing pro-town strategies. Sorta like a need to contribute enough to not look sus; but also afraid to accidently spill something, resulting in few posts with town-heavy substance. It's just a vibe I have, so I don't want to sound too accusatory with that, however.

I kinda feel the same way about myself  :-[  I'm trying to grasp what you guys are saying, but I'm too confused for strategies...


welp, time to go back and reread the last two pages that I missed

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 05:18:07 PMI RETURN, minus one toe nail.
...unintentionally? :P


I'm working on a revised suspicion list. Probably gonna keep it brief and mostly talk about changes since last time.

Ouch, sorry about that!

Well maybe not unintentionally, since you did want davy lynched. Regardless, Math saw the opportunity and took it.

A quick rundown on adjustments to my D0 suspicion list (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437036#msg437036):

WOLF LEAN:
- Toby: Perhaps to my own detriment, I still can't shake the "one of Toby or davy is an assassin" idea I had prior (and we know how davy flipped). I was originally going to put Toby in the "slight wolf lean" category despite this (from the cardflip and his involvement, or lack thereof, in the davy lynch, it seems likely he isn't the blue assassin, at least), until today's incident regarding my opinions on THC. I've had PM correspondence with Toby and another player (they can reveal who they are, if they so choose) about why Toby was irked by this and it just makes me feel much worse about Toby, especially with how he went about responding to the situation.
- Xiao: Aside from the possibility of being the blue assassin who hopped on the davy lynch early as a longshot play, additions have been the way Xiao jumped on the A# suspicion, and the way Xiao reacted to my take about THC.
- A# Minor: Weird behavior toward end of last phase + this phase, sudden jump on davy vote, still feel like first-time-wolf syndrome kicking in to full effect.

Slight Wolf Lean:
- ThatHiddenCharacter: Been acting weird for most of the game, and when I brought up that I didn't feel he was making optimal town plays, he doubled down on it (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437185#msg437185).
- therealmathguy: Was a potential lynch for last phase, acted in self-preservation in a weird way. Possible newbie mistake, but I don't get good vibes.

Neutral:
- The Musical Poet: Thoughts haven't changed much. Has mostly been inactive since the end of last phase.

Town Lean:
- TheZeldaPianist275: Thoughts haven't changed much.
- SpecsFlyer17: Thoughts haven't changed much. Recent contributions seem good.

Me Tier:
- BlackDragonSlayer: it's still me, if that changes i'll be s h o c k e d


I could see Toby red assassin / Xiao or A# blue assassin at this point.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 02:48:10 PMSo in your mind, choosing to lynch someone you think is human is preferable to having a KitB between someone you think is a human and someone you think is an assassin?

I never claimed to think davy was a human. I said I could him going either way.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 05:41:43 PM- ThatHiddenCharacter: Been acting weird for most of the game, and when I brought up that I didn't feel he was making optimal town plays, he doubled down on it (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437185#msg437185).

This is literally how I've always played, regardless of my role. Maybe my rationale doesn't make much sense to everyone else, but it makes sense to me.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 05:48:20 PMThis is literally how I've always played, regardless of my role. Maybe my rationale doesn't make much sense to everyone else, but it makes sense to me.

...hm. Well, to be fair, you hosted the first revival game and died N1 in my game, so I can't say I've seen examples of your recent play. I can only speak to how I'd react to your play from any generic player.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 05:51:27 PM...hm. Well, to be fair, you hosted the first revival game and died N1 in my game, so I can't say I've seen examples of your recent play. I can only speak to how I'd react to your play from any generic player.

I suppose it has been awhile since we've played together.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 05:41:43 PMNeutral:
- The Musical Poet: Thoughts haven't changed much. Has mostly been inactive since the end of last phase.

Sorry about this, it was a mistake to join the TWG. I have little time on my hands, as well as my extreme ignorance of how TWG works. I will however try my best to be active.

Was hoping to stay awake for phase update but I'm already too tired to keep going :-X Here's hoping things turn out well!!

Night 1 has concluded.

XiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

threalmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

Living Players:

A# Minor
BlackDragonSlayer
ThatHiddenCharacter
TheZeldaPianist275
SpecsFlyer17
The Musical Poet
Toby

It is now Day 1. Day 1 will conclude at
11:59PM US Central, Wednesday, 27 September 2023. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/weekend?iso=20230927T235959&p0=64&msg=Fck&font=cursive)

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 25, 2023, 10:30:28 PM
XiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 11, 2023, 09:58:58 PMcold target die fist night time

welp, they were right

hmm... so if mathguy was just a normal human, the only other person I could find somewhat suspicious right now is THC...


I'm going to sleep now and I'll reread most of the thread tomorrow to see if I can pick up anything else. bye

Red Assassin likely went after his own Cold Target, as expected, and got Xiao.

Blue Assassin likely whiffed and got a Human, Math.

2 Assassins, 2 Wards, 2 Hot Targets, and 1 Human remain!

So, statistically speaking, anyone still alive who was told they're a normal townie has a 2/3 chance of being a ward. That being said, if push comes to shove and more people think I should be lynched than Toby, then I will go down willingly on the odds I'm a ward and can take an assassin with me. However, I still think Toby should be under serious suspicion today.

THC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 25, 2023, 10:30:28 PMthrealmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

:o

Death post:
Now that I'm dead I can reveal that my comment about forgetting the ward rules was an honest rookie slip-up and not meant to metagame. I'm not sure if that's frowned upon or treated as part of the game, but sorry about that.

Good luck to humans!

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 10:47:15 PMSo, statistically speaking, anyone still alive who was told they're a normal townie has a 2/3 chance of being a ward. That being said, if push comes to shove and more people think I should be lynched than Toby, then I will go down willingly on the odds I'm a ward and can take an assassin with me. However, I still think Toby should be under serious suspicion today.

In fact, I doubt I will change my mind about Toblerone being the best lynch candidate, so I'm going to vote for him now just to get it out of the way.

Toby

THC you started neutral on me and then me literally responding to you got you more and more suspicious lol. Do you want to give any content as to why you're suspicious?

Same to you A#?

As specs said Xiao was probably killed by red assassin, and math guy killed by blue assassin

Blue assassin likely tried to kill the other assassin by going for math guy. Which somewhat makes me think the blue assassin probably isn't someone who had already said they would push for a math guy lynch, because if it was they'd probably feel comfortable trying to get that lynch rather than using a kill.

Red assassin obviously just went for Xiao because they're the cold target. Interesting how Xiao and Davy were both top lynch candidates yesterday and both were cold targets ...

I'm going to have to look back and see who was saying what about Xiao. Xiao was admit-ably less involved this game compared to his precious two, however not everyone might know that, and I didn't want to focus on that too much considering I felt a bit uninvolved the first irl day at least and the Davy/bds plan paragraphs, over explanations and finger pointing was a bit off putting to see on day 0 lol

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 05:41:43 PMA quick rundown on adjustments to my D0 suspicion list (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg437036#msg437036):

WOLF LEAN:
- Toby: Perhaps to my own detriment, I still can't shake the "one of Toby or davy is an assassin" idea I had prior (and we know how davy flipped). I was originally going to put Toby in the "slight wolf lean" category despite this (from the cardflip and his involvement, or lack thereof, in the davy lynch, it seems likely he isn't the blue assassin, at least), until today's incident regarding my opinions on THC. I've had PM correspondence with Toby and another player (they can reveal who they are, if they so choose) about why Toby was irked by this and it just makes me feel much worse about Toby, especially with how he went about responding to the situation.
- Xiao: Aside from the possibility of being the blue assassin who hopped on the davy lynch early as a longshot play, additions have been the way Xiao jumped on the A# suspicion, and the way Xiao reacted to my take about THC.
- A# Minor: Weird behavior toward end of last phase + this phase, sudden jump on davy vote, still feel like first-time-wolf syndrome kicking in to full effect.

I don't understand the either me or Davy is assassin logic. Assassins obviously don't know eachother so there isn't partnership there. The only way they could be related is through protecting/gunning for ward/cold target. Given Davy now flipped cold target and I didn't gun him I feel like your logic is flawed but you refuse to see that ?

And you've had PM conversations regarding my thoughts on your opinions of THC ? Why?
I literally PM'd you to say I explicitly wasn't talking about your opinions on THC so why are you even having that irrelevant conversation ?

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 11:31:37 AMIll PM you privately because I don't want it discussed more in topic and I don't want the assassins to consider it

But I wasn't talking about what you said about THC should have stayed unknown

It's like you're trying to stir shit when I literally told you, my point wasn't referring to your THC thoughts at all. You talked about multiple things in your post with THC and I said I disagreed with you revealing that information. And yet you've not only doubled down in the topic only your THC opinion, but you've done it through PM when I literally wasn't referring to your THC opinion at all.

Furthermore, Xiao, now confirmed human, agreed with what I said and said the exact same thing in the topic. So I'm not the only player to have the human mindset to think the stuff you was saying was detrimental to town

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 12:43:57 AMTHC you started neutral on me and then me literally responding to you got you more and more suspicious lol. Do you want to give any content as to why you're suspicious?

I mean, I've already explained multiple times why I got even more suspicious of you, but with this new phase and your new posts, I can add something else. As I said before, it is now a 2/3 chance anyone who doesn't know their role is a ward and therefore should be ok with being lynched. Couple that with the fact I'm fairly confident you're not a hot target, it's very suspicious that you're still so adamantly defending yourself.

Hahaha just because we are at a point where allowing ourselves as normal humans to die is a benefit, doesn't mean I can't ask you to give reasons for your vote to avoid you just saying your suspicious because of vibes / or for literally responding to you lol

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMAlrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

Xiao: Right now you're at the top of my suspicion list. The only issue with that is the reasoning behind it is also just the way you play every game. But since I don't feel that strongly about anyone else in particular, you are still my current top pick.

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.

Toby: The fact I can't remember anything about your posts says a lot. I can remember the gists of pretty much everyone else's posts, but not a single thing about any of yours. That tells me that they probably weren't adding a whole lot to the discussion because they likely would have stood out more to me if they did. That being said, I don't find that to be enough to fully suspect you because if I did, then like half the players would also be suspect as assassins.

A#: I'd like to say I could tell you're trying really hard to give input, buuuuut you were really awesome at giving input in the last two games and deducting things. The lack of either of those thus far is a bit of a red flag to me. You may still be new, but you showed some great talent in the last two games. It's still early, though, so I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt for nowI.

Poet: I honestly can't really read you. You're not only new to TWG, but also new to the forum. As of right now, I have no basis for either your personality or playstyle. I would like to hear some more input from you.

math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

BDS: I'm fairly confident you're town. All the things you've said thus far scream town!BDS to me, plus your response to my DMs just cemented it even more.

TZP: I'm 99% sure you're town. I won't disclose why publicly yet, but I feel it's safe to put you in my town drawer to gather dust.

Specs: ...I forgot about you. On the bright side, going back through your posts, I'm getting a slight town read from you. You seem to actively be trying to not only figure out the best plan for town and actively discuss about other proposed plans, but also get other players to be more active and get their thoughts on the discussion.

THC I'm curious as to why given your reasoning on math, why math was red number 2 but poet was only neutral in your suspicion list when they had contributed much the same?

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 02:23:49 AMHahaha just because we are at a point where allowing ourselves as normal humans to die is a benefit, doesn't mean I can't ask you to give reasons for your vote to avoid you just saying your suspicious because of vibes / or for literally responding to you lol

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:02:44 AMYou and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.

I have literally given more examples and thoughts than just "bad vibes" for why I'm suspicious of you, one such example quoted above. I'm not going to repeat all those same things while at work because mobile sucks for making tons of quotes and I'm not even supposed to be on my phone while there in the first place, but if you actually read my posts you'd realize I gave plenty of valid reasons to be suspicious of you.

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 02:35:56 AMTHC I'm curious as to why given your reasoning on math, why math was red number 2 but poet was only neutral in your suspicion list when they had contributed much the same?

Easy. Poet is brand new to the game, plus her status as new to the forum also gave me little to go off of. However, math was introduced to us by TZP as a smart person (with experience in the game as well?). TZP even called them out on their suspicious behavior earlier in the game. I felt it made sense with all that info to hold them to a higher standard than someone who's brand new.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 25, 2023, 10:30:28 PMXiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

threalmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

As others have already said, the simplest explanation is that the red assassin got desperate, tried to play catch-up, and went after Xiao immediately, while the blue assassin just made a shot in the dark; but what doesn't settle me about that explanation is why the red assassin went after Xiao when they probably knew fully that Xiao was a likely lynch possibility today? It's possible that blue assassin went after Xiao, thinking they were the red assassin who tried to jump on an "easy" lynch early (not knowing davy was the blue cold target), while the red assassin went after mathguy for similar reasons, thinking he was the blue assassin hopping on the davy lynch for self-preservation and trying to lynch his cold target (maybe red assassin thought that mathguy was so reluctant to hop on the davy lynch specifically because he knew davy was his cold target and it'd look bad for him?).

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:48:16 PMTHC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Ma'am, I literally posted a suspicion list yesterday with Toby at the top spot

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 12:54:27 AMInteresting how Xiao and Davy were both top lynch candidates yesterday and both were cold targets ...

Both people who were nightkilled were part of davy's lynch, and I don't think that's a coincidence. It makes me think that both assassins were hoping the other assassin was among davy's votes and both whiffed.

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 01:26:31 AMI don't understand the either me or Davy is assassin logic. Assassins obviously don't know eachother so there isn't partnership there. The only way they could be related is through protecting/gunning for ward/cold target. Given Davy now flipped cold target and I didn't gun him I feel like your logic is flawed but you refuse to see that ?

I was certain that davy was an assassin D0, and at the time I assumed that the other assassin would probably think similarly. Following, I was under the assumption (at the time, emphasis on at the time, based on your interactions with davy or what I thought were your interactions) that the other assassin wouldn't want to buddy up with someone they thought was likely to be the other assassin.

I still believe one of you or davy is an assassin, especially because of my thoughts on you independent of davy. Davy wasn't an assassin.

QuoteAnd you've had PM conversations regarding my thoughts on your opinions of THC ? Why?

The first was TZP, who PM'd me before you PM'd me. The second was you, who PM'd me.

QuoteI literally PM'd you to say I explicitly wasn't talking about your opinions on THC so why are you even having that irrelevant conversation ?

Exactly because it's not about THC. You took issue with the fact that I mentioned TZP's hot target claim. Except that had already been mentioned before (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436964#msg436964) (and probably more times than that, but that's the first one that stood out to me on a re-read), and as I recall, you didn't take issue with it then—except you suddenly took issue when I said it. You claimed to be trying to avoid drawing attention to it, and yet what you did was essentially draw more attention to it than it would have had you just not said anything! You claimed the information was beneficial to assassins, and yet you drew attention to it by making such a big stir about what I said.

QuoteIt's like you're trying to stir shit when I literally told you, my point wasn't referring to your THC thoughts at all. You talked about multiple things in your post with THC and I said I disagreed with you revealing that information. And yet you've not only doubled down in the topic only your THC opinion, but you've done it through PM when I literally wasn't referring to your THC opinion at all.

You approached me through PM. You're the only one here trying to stir shit, and that's all you ever were by calling me out on that in the first place. You weren't trying to protect information, you were trying to make me look bad by calling me out on something you could pass off as information that needed to be protected.

QuoteFurthermore, Xiao, now confirmed human, agreed with what I said and said the exact same thing in the topic. So I'm not the only player to have the human mindset to think the stuff you was saying was detrimental to town

That reasoning reeks of someone who targeted Xiao for that exact reason (and you're definitely reaching with that reasoning), which makes me extra glad I decided to publish my suspicion list when I did. Given that suspicions on you were already ramping up last phase, it's entirely possible you knew you were cornered and went for the desperation play.

I'm ambivalent on Toby's loyalties right now, but I want to say that I completely disagree with that read, BDS

Also, rest in RIP, Math. Thanks for playing! We shall carry on your good work. Sorry I was wrong about you.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 04:56:18 AMI'm ambivalent on Toby's loyalties right now, but I want to say that I completely disagree with that read, BDS

and i disagree with your disagreement of that read

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 04:09:41 AMMa'am, I literally posted a suspicion list yesterday with Toby at the top spot

I was thinking about that. Plus the fact she said it like my suspicion on him was a new development and not something that had been developing more and more for over a phase.

How is red assassin killing his hot target a desperation play?

It's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 05:38:47 AMHow is red assassin killing their cold target a desperation play?

It's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

Typo fixed

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 05:38:47 AMHow is red assassin killing their cold target a desperation play?

Blue cold target getting lynched D0 means red assassin is lagging behind. They likely wouldn't kill Xiao when they knew Xiao was a likely lynch, unless they had good reason to.

QuoteIt's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

Was he?? ?? ?? That's not the vibe I got at all. If anything, between THC, A#, and Mathguy, he got the least amount of attention of the three; meanwhile, regardless of votes, Xiao was still pretty high up on most people's suspicions.

Unfortunately I'll be a little absent these next few days due to work, but I'll reply when I can.

BDS, I actually disagree that the Red Assassin wouldn't go after their Cold Target. Given that Xiao wasn't a for sure lynch, I think it makes the most sense for to just take the sure bet kill of the Cold Target during the night.

Regardless of who killed Math and Xiao, this was a mildly favorable night phase imo; We expected the Cold Targets to be gone anyway, and we lost a human (which as discussed, isn't the worst outcome). Both full Hot Target identities are still hidden.

That all being said, I'm going to put my vote on A# right now for reasons previously stated. Mainly being the weird behavior at the end of D0 (jumping on the davy train), and tellingly over-cautious, neutral play.

I'll be back periodically, but my thoughts will have to come in waves at once, rather than active dialogues.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 04:30:48 AMI was certain that davy was an assassin D0, and at the time I assumed that the other assassin would probably think similarly. Following, I was under the assumption (at the time, emphasis on at the time, based on your interactions with davy or what I thought were your interactions) that the other assassin wouldn't want to buddy up with someone they thought was likely to be the other assassin.

I still believe one of you or davy is an assassin, especially because of my thoughts on you independent of davy. Davy wasn't an assassin.
The first was TZP, who PM'd me before you PM'd me. The second was you, who PM'd me.
Exactly because it's not about THC. You took issue with the fact that I mentioned TZP's hot target claim. Except that had already been mentioned before (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436964#msg436964) (and probably more times than that, but that's the first one that stood out to me on a re-read), and as I recall, you didn't take issue with it then—except you suddenly took issue when I said it. You claimed to be trying to avoid drawing attention to it, and yet what you did was essentially draw more attention to it than it would have had you just not said anything! You claimed the information was beneficial to assassins, and yet you drew attention to it by making such a big stir about what I said.
You approached me through PM. You're the only one here trying to stir shit, and that's all you ever were by calling me out on that in the first place. You weren't trying to protect information, you were trying to make me look bad by calling me out on something you could pass off as information that needed to be protected.
That reasoning reeks of someone who targeted Xiao for that exact reason (and you're definitely reaching with that reasoning), which makes me extra glad I decided to publish my suspicion list when I did. Given that suspicions on you were already ramping up last phase, it's entirely possible you knew you were cornered and went for the desperation play.

I mean thanks for raising that's Specs did it as well. I probs didn't reply to it because it was posted 30 mins after my bed time and I was trying to catch up on everything else instead, and the claim was fresh then so I think I purposefully wanted to avoid quoting it and drawing more attention to it

But I'm sus of that too, and Specs actually PM'd me specifically just to get my thoughts on TZPs hot target claim so for some reason he seems to be really trying to figure out if TZP is not target or not and see what everyone else thinks

Just because 1 person raises it though doesn't mean saying it again won't draw any extra attention to it. I had already called you out before on saying stuff that's probs best not to draw attention to, so that's why I said it again. Also, you said multiple things in your post and I was purposefully vague on what I was referring to hoping you'd get it, and I also PM'd you in private to avoid it continuing in topic, so I really disagree that I was drawing further attention to it given that I let the topic believe it was your opinion on THC I was referring to rather than your opinion on TZP because I didn't correct you in topic, only in private

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 26, 2023, 06:01:32 AMBDS, I actually disagree that the Red Assassin wouldn't go after their Cold Target. Given that Xiao wasn't a for sure lynch, I think it makes the most sense for to just take the sure bet kill of the Cold Target during the night.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be true ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Never hurts to consider alternatives though.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 25, 2023, 11:11:45 AMQUESTION FOR THE HOST

Kai, if one assassin goes down tonight either because of a direct hit or because of a ward, does that assassin's kill still go through?

Kai, in case you didn't see this ^^^

Also BDS what happened to your toenail

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 06:03:01 AMI mean thanks for raising that's Specs did it as well. I probs didn't reply to it because it was posted 30 mins after my bed time and I was trying to catch up on everything else instead, and the claim was fresh then so I think I purposefully wanted to avoid quoting it and drawing more attention to it

Much like A# missing your mathguy vote, you missing it is something we can't really prove one way or the other. But given that, as you said later in this post, you already called me out for something earlier, I'm certain you would have called Specs out for it earlier if you were actually suspicious of him for it.

QuoteBut I'm sus of that too, and Specs actually PM'd me specifically just to get my thoughts on TZPs hot target claim so for some reason he seems to be really trying to figure out if TZP is not target or not and see what everyone else thinks

Given how thoroughly duped Specs was by TZP last game, I incline more toward Specs not wanting to let assassin TZP slip by with such a bold (dare I say, ridiculous) gambit.

QuoteJust because 1 person raises it though doesn't mean saying it again won't draw any extra attention to it. I had already called you out before on saying stuff that's probs best not to draw attention to, so that's why I said it again. Also, you said multiple things in your post and I was purposefully vague on what I was referring to hoping you'd get it, and I also PM'd you in private to avoid it continuing in topic, so I really disagree that I was drawing further attention to it given that I let the topic believe it was your opinion on THC I was referring to rather than your opinion on TZP because I didn't correct you in topic, only in private

The thing is, if you hadn't drawn any attention to my post, I don't think anyone would've payed the TZP aside any mind. And yes, you had already called me out before, but that information was also information that was not harmful to have in public (again, feels like you're advocating for withholding helpful/necessary information). I never would have gotten the idea that you were referring to my TZP comment until you/TZP explicitly spelled it out for me, because not only had it already been said before, it was not harmful information to have public regardless (though I did avoid bringing it up publicly until today on the off-chance it was).

Did Xiao also have an issue with my TZP comment? Unless Xiao said otherwise, there's no reason to believe that Xiao wasn't taking issue with my THC comments rather than my TZP comment.

I think you're looking for plausible deniability and trying to shift suspicion away from yourself.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 06:05:45 AMAlso BDS what happened to your toenail

Ingrown toenail (second time for the same toe). The podiatrist believe it was damaged and the nail would continue growing back thick (likely causing recurring ingrown nail) and thus suggested permanent nail bed removal.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 06:14:24 AMDid Xiao also have an issue with my TZP comment? Unless Xiao said otherwise, there's no reason to believe that Xiao wasn't taking issue with my THC comments rather than my TZP comment.

To clarify this, TZP noticed because the comment because it was about him. Toby noticed it because he was looking for something to call me out on. I'm doubtful anyone else, including Xiao, would've noticed the TZP comment otherwise.

Actually on second thoughts I think optimal assassin play is probably to try secure your cold target to die through a lynch, and use night kills only to focus on getting the other assassin or hot target.

There's still like 2(?) more lynches at least for the cold targets to die so best play would have been to hang on a bit longer

That being said just because it's probably the better play doesn't mean that it's the play that was made

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 06:16:23 AMIngrown toenail (second time for the same toe). The podiatrist believe it was damaged and the nail would continue growing back thick (likely causing recurring ingrown nail) and thus suggested permanent nail bed removal.

I got this done xx

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 06:17:45 AMTo clarify this, TZP noticed because the comment because it was about him. Toby noticed it because he was looking for something to call me out on. I'm doubtful anyone else, including Xiao, would've noticed the TZP comment otherwise.

I mean I don't think anything was wrong with your THC comments so it's more likely Xiao was also referring to your tzp comment

The TZP claim was the first bombshell of information we had, I was just asking around to get peoples' takes on it.

Maybe that was partly because of how last game went haha, but also just to get multiple opinions.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 06:05:45 AMKai, in case you didn't see this ^^^

Yes, an Assassin who is killed during the night still has their own kill go though.

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:48:16 PMTHC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Hopefully you'll see this whenever you pop in the thread next, but do you mind elaborating on this?

And furthermore, who are you suspicious of aside from Toby?

I mean A# has said they are suspicious of 6/9 of the other players this game.

She said numerous times she was suspicious of THC but is now in agreement with THC for calling me out. A# you're a bit all over the place this game lol

The only person she's not said she's suspicious of is TZP, Specs, and BDS. I can see why for the former 2 and no one else has really pointed much suspicion towards TZP or Specs. But i think BDS has been questioned a bit so that stands out a little

Im conflicted a little because I want to say A# is being a bit too here and there to be a wolf but she i feel she's very different to her previous 2 games. She also admitted that when she voted Davy she didn't see THC's vote, which means she thought she was breaking the kitB herself by choosing Davy over math guy, and she showed no inclination to vote Davy the entire phase.

For this lynch:

Normal Human x1 (1/7 chance): Mildly Unfavorable - I feel like at this point, we need to get rid of an Assassin. While lynching a human doesn't help any Assassin directly, it removes the pool of non-Assassins down from 5 to 4, with 2 kills still occurring on night 2.

Hot Target x2 (2/7 chance): Very Unfavorable - This is probably the worst thing that can happen. The same reasons for not lynching a Normal Human apply, with the added downside of one Assassin having no targets remaining besides the other Assassin.

Ward x2 (2/7 chance): Favorable - Double kills the Ward and corresponding Assassin. This is a good thing, although losing an extra town vote for day 2 would be the downside. Still, reducing the number of killings per night to 1 will make a big difference imo.

Assassin (2/7 chance): Very Favorable - Kills an Assassin while retaining an extra town vote. The remaining Assassin will have a chance at hitting the opposing Ward and Hot Target for subsequent nights, which are worthless for him/her. The Ward and Hot Target of the deceased Assassin are basically Normal Humans at that point.

Another thing to consider- As the pool of potential targets decreases, the chances of an Assassin hitting the other Assassin or Ward increases. So while a "mislynch" is still undesired, chaos may ensure on night 2 by Assassins inadvertently hitting each other.

We have a 4/7 chance of getting an Assassin this phase, either via Ward or direct.

well in that case i dont mind if you lynch me bc i know im not a hot target


heres to hoping im not just a normal townie

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 26, 2023, 04:57:36 PMWe have a 4/7 chance of getting an Assassin this phase, either via Ward or direct.

I like those odds

Poet, btw, don't feel bad about feeling in over your head. This is an unusually complex game, I don't envy you it being your first. Right now, just try to figure out who is who however you can and try to persuade people if you feel strongly.

Assassin Lean:

A#: Overly neutral posting, weird behavior on the davy train on D0, especially now that Math was cleared of any wrongdoing. See my previous post where I voted for her for more information. Gets points for recently being open to being lynched, although that could be reverse psychology to avoid getting more votes.

Slight Assassin Lean:

THC: Not a great look being the deciding vote that changed the davy/math KitB to a davy lynch, especially given that Math was a human and davy was the Cold Target.

Poet: Not exactly sure how I feel about this one to be honest. On one hand, I totally understand not having the time to participate. On the other hand, this feels wolfy. It would be convenient being the Assassin and hiding behind "being new" and "not having enough time to play". 

Slight Town Lean:

TZP: Thoughts haven't changed much, although I remain slightly intrigued by the Hot Target claim. I think it's a defensive town move, although the full effects of it remain to be seen. I'm willing to entertain the thought that it's Assassin play to avoid being lynched, although I don't really think that's the case.

BDS: Good vibes from discussions and PMs regarding town strategy, although the davy vote is a blemish on the resume. His vote came super early in D0, which relieves some suspicion, although it could've just been planted early to avoid last-minute finger-pointing.

Town Lean:

Toby: I honestly don't have anything substantial to hold over Toby's head. I think his discussions and criticisms have been pretty well thought out.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 07:21:05 PMtry to persuade people if you feel strongly.

Which I suppose is what I'll do right now. If we miss an assassin this day phase it's an almost guaranteed loss, so it's time for the full-court press.

I am about 90% sure that Specs is an assassin. His fairly unhelpful reactions (parroting other people's observations and not much more) recently have cemented the hunch. If I had to guess, I'd say that he's the blue assassin, given his voting record on D0, but I'm far from certain on that. He has also been trying to triangulate hot targets behind the scenes, apparently PMing everyone except me to try to figure out which hot target I am. On top of that, I feel like he's been deliberately avoiding talking to me, perhaps to avoid my read since I know him well.

Hm. This is a bit... sudden. I don't blame Specs for putting extra scrutiny toward your claim—and after all, haven't you been coasting off your claim since then? I can't help but feel as if you've been relying on your claim to avoid suspicion without actually backing it up with much action. Meanwhile, I feel like this entire time Specs has been trying to add helpful analysis.

so

uh... I did not mean to post that

so I just told myself last night that I'll stop eating breakfast try harder, and then my head decides to light itself on fire, because that's the best thing it could do for me right now. :D



anyways, I'm gonna use a suspicion list format because it's easier on my brain (it's not in any order though). don't forget that everyone is guilty until proven innocent

---

BDS: I just read a bunch of your posts and I don't see anything questionable, but since you're such a good wolf, I'm still very cautious :P
THC: honestly, you're even harder to read than Xiao, which is basically why I'm suspicious of you. ???
TZP: you better not be a wolf again... uh, anyway, most of your posts have been pretty neutral to me. I still don't see the point in claiming hot target though
Specs: you've been super active and have been discussing a lot of strategies, but... I'm still not sure about you. also wai u saiftee on me twais lol
Poet: I feel very odd calling you out for inactivity and incredibly neutral posts because I'm not really doing any better, but I can easily see you being a wolf who's playing like I a first timer would. I dread the day that I roll wolf...
Toby: uh, some pretty noice posts tbh. maybe I'll remember why I'm suspicious of you when I feel a bit better. also I never said I agreed with THC lol


hmm, I think I forgot to add somebody to this list... oh well :) time to go to bed

TZP

I just think TZPs hot target claim was likely false and I don't think I actually believe hed want to suicide as a normal human, even if he thought it was beneficial

I just think the hot target claim was an ultimate ruse to coast by and it's been working and he's avoided anyone looking at him or the night kill. And I don't think he's done a whole lot since

Plus given a consensus of people seem to think he's not the hot target now, that's a 4/5 chance of a wolf dying by voting him, is it fine to lynch a ward if an assassin dies too rather than just voting out the assassin first and foremost?

Quote from: A# Minor on September 26, 2023, 11:42:25 PMToby: uh, some pretty noice posts tbh. maybe I'll remember why I'm suspicious of you when I feel a bit better. also I never said I agreed with THC lol


hmm, I think I forgot to add somebody to this list... oh well :) time to go to bed

This is what I was referring to

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:48:16 PMTHC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Is that not agreeing you find me suspicious ? Idk

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 11:46:11 PMIs that not agreeing you find me suspicious ? Idk

no, that was just a general statement


also sorry BDS lol

Hope u get well soon btw


So wait you meant to say BDS instead of THC ?

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 11:53:12 PMHope u get well soon btw

So wait you meant to say BDS instead of THC ?

thanks :)


no, the quote didn't work, that was a reply to this:

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 04:09:41 AMMa'am, I literally posted a suspicion list yesterday with Toby at the top spot

so I meant to say THC for all the previous comments

Quote from: A# Minor on September 26, 2023, 11:57:26 PMthanks :)


no, the quote didn't work, that was a reply to this:so I meant to say THC for all the previous comments

You're confusing me lol

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 12:47:26 AMYou're confusing me lol

actually I'm confused too  :o


I'll try to explain better tomorow

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 11:53:12 PMSo wait you meant to say BDS instead of THC ?

She was apologizing to BDS for not seeing his suspicion of you, she just happened to say it in the same post as her explaining it was a general statement.

I'm not sure how I feel potentially being in agreement with Toby (to be clear, I still suspect him, but after tunneling davy last phase I think I have good reason to give myself pause), but I do feel like mostly everyone's been avoiding giving more scrutiny toward TZP, at our own detriment. Plus, with his post about Specs, it sorta feels like he's worried Specs (the player who I can say has given the most doubt toward TZP all game) might catch onto him at a critical moment and wants him out of the way sooner rather than later.

TZP

Let's see where this goes?

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 27, 2023, 01:07:55 AMShe was apologizing to BDS for not seeing his suspicion of you, she just happened to say it in the same post as her explaining it was a general statement.

Weird if true, and seems to be a... concerningly recurring trend for her this game.

Alright, so I'll actually be away from any electronic device for the bulk of today and tomorrow, so I'll miss the phase change (sorry). Work training.

Anyways, regarding TZPs comments, I disagree that my posts have been unhelpful, but that's up for the rest of the crew to decide. I've tried to be more cautious this game in regards to PMs after what happened last game lol. If TZP is a Hot Target, I still don't want to vote for him this phase, but we'll see what happens.

I'm going to maintain my position of A#. Previous suspicions still apply. On your recent suspicion list, two things stuck out to me. First, the "I dread the day I roll wolf" comment on Poet's list. Second, you said I safetied on you twice. Both of these feel wolfy, particularly the first. And my vote for you earlier this phase was not a safety by any means, it was a legitimate vote.  Its post #415. Feels like an attempt at a downplaying my vote.

a#

Stop voting for me. What did I say that was at all implausible?

Kai, are regular insta rules in effect now that it is no longer Day 0?

voting BDS as a safety for now

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 06:25:43 AMWeird if true, and seems to be a... concerningly recurring trend for her this game.

:(

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 27, 2023, 06:25:59 AMAnyways, regarding TZPs comments, I disagree that my posts have been unhelpful, but that's up for the rest of the crew to decide.

since I've basically been doing more reading than anything else, I think your posts have been helpful :P

QuoteI'm going to maintain my position of A#. Previous suspicions still apply. On your recent suspicion list, two things stuck out to me. First, the "I dread the day I roll wolf" comment on Poet's list.

nice

all I meant is that I can predict wolf A# playing even worse than I am now. I'm not trying to draw attention away from myself or anything, how is that suspicious

QuoteSecond, you said I safetied on you twice. Both of these feel wolfy, particularly the first. And my vote for you earlier this phase was not a safety by any means, it was a legitimate vote.  Its post #415. Feels like an attempt at a downplaying my vote.

jeez, I keep reading things wrong... disregard that comment then

---

if I have time, I'll try to revise my suspicion list a bit since I can think better during the day

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 27, 2023, 10:10:01 AMvoting BDS as a safety for now

b u t  w h y

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 27, 2023, 08:59:01 AMStop voting for me. What did I say that was at all implausible?

uhh I don't really think you said anything too strange (besides jumping on specs out of nowhere lol, and also the hot target claim)
also, now I see how you guys felt when I false claimed last game @.@

Vote count I think

TZP - 2 Toby /buds
A# - 2 Specs / A#
BDS - 1 Poet

Ok never mind, I'm going with my gut feeling I had eariler.

Voting TZP.

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 11:45:10 AMVote count I think

TZP - 2 Toby /buds
A# - 2 Specs / A#
BDS - 1 Poet

*BDS not buds lol

That's 3 for TZP

To avoid an insta I'll unvote but I'll likely change back later in the phase

unvote

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 27, 2023, 12:47:45 PMOk never mind, I'm going with my gut feeling I had eariler.

Voting TZP.

Are you able to expand on your gut feeling, just to get a better idea of what you think ?

Quote from: A# Minor on September 27, 2023, 08:48:23 AMa#

...interesting. Mind explaining yourself?


Also, ideally, it'd be great if anyone could make their final votes (or express their final vote intentions) no later than two hours before the end of the phase to avoid last time's scramble. As of right now it's less than 9 hours til the end of the phase as per the host's timer. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/weekend?iso=20230927T235959&p0=64&msg=Fck&font=cursive)

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 12:52:40 PMAre you able to expand on your gut feeling, just to get a better idea of what you think ?

I mostly focused on TZP's claim since that was the only information I was given.

There are three possibilities. He could be an assassin, townie, or a hot target.

 
Calling hot target as a townie is incredibly risky since it is a gamble to find an assassin. It may not even work.

If he were an assassin, they could gain information about the other assassin via lynches, and potentially get a hot target to confide in them. This is still extremely risky, but you get high rewards if it works.

 
If he really is a hot target, this would be the riskiest of all. He only gives the others information, and they must hope that the other hot target will try to confide in them. There is barely a chance for survival if you use this strategy. At least that is what I think.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 01:02:51 PM...interesting. Mind explaining yourself?

I want to see what people have to say about me voting myself

Kai said in PM there instas aren't on this game so

TZP

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 01:02:51 PM...interesting. Mind explaining yourself?


Also, ideally, it'd be great if anyone could make their final votes (or express their final vote intentions) no later than two hours before the end of the phase to avoid last time's scramble. As of right now it's less than 9 hours til the end of the phase as per the host's timer. (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/weekend?iso=20230927T235959&p0=64&msg=Fck&font=cursive)

I'll only be around for about 2 more hours then need to sleep

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 01:54:22 PMKai said in PM there instas aren't on this game

Confirming.

Specs, could you be convinced to vote TZP?

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 01:55:06 PMI'll only be around for about 2 more hours then need to sleep

Fair enough. But EVERYONE ELSE... :P

Quote from: A# Minor on September 27, 2023, 01:40:04 PMI want to see what people have to say about me voting myself

Sure.

A# Minor.

A# Minor – (3) – SpecsFlyer17, A# Minor, BlackDragonSlayer
TheZeldaPianist – (2) – Toby, The Musical Poet
Toby – (1) – ThatHiddenCharacter
SpecsFlyer17 – (1) – TheZeldaPianist

it's like kai was lying in wait :o

cool

I think A# is clearly trying to draw attention to herself which could either be a double bluff by an assassin or be a normal human. Lynching her could be a safer attempt at trying to take down an assassin either directly, or through a ward

It's a 4/5 chance anyway as I don't see her being hot target with this behaviour

I'm up way past my bed time but I gotta sleep

good night.

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 04:26:13 PMI think A# is clearly trying to draw attention to herself which could either be a double bluff by an assassin or be a normal human.

I wasn't necessarily trying to draw attention to myself, but I guess that's what I'm doing XD

QuoteLynching her could be a safer attempt at trying to take down an assassin either directly, or through a ward

that's why I want to be lynched. as I said, I know I'm not a hot target, and there's a 2/3 chance that I'm a ward, so I think it's worth a shot


come and get me >:)

Quote from: A# Minor on September 27, 2023, 04:38:24 PMthat's why I want to be lynched. as I said, I know I'm not a hot target, and there's a 2/3 chance that I'm a ward, so I think it's worth a shot

Well, you're not... wrong, per se, but lynching a ward isn't the optimal outcome (as Specs pointed out earlier, for example) because whichever assassin is left has one less person to pick between for trying to find their hot target. The ideal is just lynching the assassin directly, and if you are human, you should ideally be at least attempting to further that cause.

Fine—A#. I'll leave my vote there for now.

We're approaching 3 hours until the end of the phase.

Ok, I won't be around at phase change, and I've recently been thinking that TZP is an assassin and Toby might be his ward, so I'm going to change my vote. I won't be around to respond to any responses to this post.

TZP

Approaching the 2 hour phase deadline.

goodbye!

wait a sec, it's a kitb again O.o

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 27, 2023, 04:13:12 PMA# Minor – (4) – SpecsFlyer17, A# Minor, BlackDragonSlayer, TheZeldaPianist
TheZeldaPianist – (3) – Toby, The Musical Poet, ThatHiddenCharacter

...current votecount (updated from quoted post), unless I'm mistaken??

oh yeah, I miscounted

With a 4-3 vote (one of the 4 votes being A# voting for herself) and an hour left in the phase, I can already predict how this is going to go :morton2:

I was thinking of changing my vote to TZP (since my vote for myself was a reaction test to see if anyone would randomly defend me), but then someone PM'd me and suggested that I switch my vote. so I'm gonna continue causing my own death. see ya B)

Quote from: A# Minor on September 27, 2023, 09:38:10 PMI was thinking of changing my vote to TZP (since my vote for myself was a reaction test to see if anyone would randomly defend me), but then someone PM'd me and suggested that I switch my vote. so I'm gonna continue causing my own death. see ya B)

I have no idea why that's so small

Quote from: A# Minor on September 27, 2023, 09:38:10 PMI was thinking of changing my vote to TZP (since my vote for myself was a reaction test to see if anyone would randomly defend me), but then someone PM'd me and suggested that I switch my vote. so I'm gonna continue causing my own death. see ya B)

Interesting.

I always forget about the fonts. Wonder if we could potentially add more?

Do you mind sharing who suggested you change your vote?

why didn't I put his name there *facepalm*


it was THC

I'm wondering if I'm his ward because of that

Considering he is currently voting for TZP, I'm not surprised. Care to elaborate, THC, if you're still about? Last time around, that ploy didn't exactly work out very well (and I should know, cause I'm the one who did it).

Granted, I fully expect A# to do a last-minuet vote change regardless of anything THC said. Just curious why he said it, and why via PM (does it include reasoning he feels shouldn't yet be shared with the thread?).

Of course, there's also a possibility that A# is straight-up lying about THC sending her a PM, which might explain her initial hesitation to name the person who sent it.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 09:44:20 PMGranted, I fully expect A# to do a last-minuet vote change regardless of anything THC said.

XD

Quote(does it include reasoning he feels shouldn't yet be shared with the thread?).

All he said was that he didn't trust his hot target claim. it could honestly be genuine (maybe he just wants TZP dead and I'm the only one who's active right now to help with that?) but there's no way to be sure


... The Final Day — 10 minutes remain.


ninja'd: will get the quote in a minute

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 27, 2023, 09:18:39 PMIf you come online before phase change, I strongly urge you to change your vote to TZP. I don't believe his hot target claim.

here you go

I suppose, either way, it'll be another interesting cardflip (though it irks me that it once again comes down to such a silly situation). Let's just hope it's a favorable one this time.

I'm here for this. Yeet.

yeet

or something, i guess

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 09:55:33 PM(though it irks me that it once again comes down to such a silly situation).

for real lol
always a few minutes before

QuoteLet's just hope it's a favorable one this time.

fingers crossed

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 27, 2023, 09:56:15 PMI'm here for this. Yeet.

yeet


nice

1 minute remains.

"Uh... should I play the Song of Time, or..."

Well, color me surprised.

I just hope Kaiveran updates soon so I can sleep :P Can't sleep while there's such looming tension!

A# if you're actually a wolf you have the highest risk tolerance I've ever seen

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 10:00:50 PMWell, color me surprised.

I just hope Kaiveran updates soon so I can sleep :P Can't sleep while there's such looming tension!

yeah I gotta go back to bed, I will talk to you all about this and react to what happened in the morning. Night all, thank you for your service A#

A# Minor – (4) – SpecsFlyer17, A# Minor, BlackDragonSlayer, TheZeldaPianist
TheZeldaPianist – (3) – Toby, The Musical Poet,  ThatHiddenCharacter

–

A# Minor has died. They were a Normal Townie.

Living Players

BlackDragonSlayer
ThatHiddenCharacter
TheZeldaPianist275
SpecsFlyer17
The Musical Poet
Toby

It is now Night 2. Night 2 will end on Thursday, 28 September 2023, 11:59PM US Central.

(https://i.imgur.com/Xl1Kwyw.png)


DAMMIT

So, uh... yeah.

Two assassins, two wards, and two hot targets left. Two nightkills. This is going to be an interesting night.

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 27, 2023, 02:59:21 PMConfirming.

TWC Post

Kai, Insta's are assumed to be part of the game unless stated otherwise as they are part of the procedure section of the basic guide and official rules (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=956.msg14775#msg14775). As a host, you are allowed to change that for your game, but this should have been stated clearly during sign-ups. Now that it has been cleared up here it's fine, but please keep this in mind the next time you host a game.

Quote from: davy on September 27, 2023, 10:57:43 PMTWC Post

Kai, Insta's are assumed to be part of the game unless stated otherwise as they are part of the procedure section of the basic guide and official rules (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=956.msg14775#msg14775). As a host, you are allowed to change that for your game, but this should have been stated clearly during sign-ups. Now that it has been cleared up here it's fine, but please keep this in mind the next time you host a game.

Sorry, it's been a while. It won't happen again. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Uvp-rRw1vM)

Quote from: Kaiveran on September 27, 2023, 10:22:29 PMA# Minor has died. They were a Normal Townie.

(https://i.imgur.com/5NVZYHE.jpg)

Well, it would have been great to see an assassin go down, but I actually don't think this is *that* suboptimal an outcome. The game profile now is very clearly assassin v. assassin, not assassin v. town. I think we have a chance to sweep up the pieces after they take swings at each other tonight.

Yeah the assassins do not want to be killing town tonight or else they'll lose. They need to  hit the other assassin before they get hit

Interestingly it's very likely they could kill each other tonight. But if they try to go after their hot target it'll be a waste of a kill because hot targets can just get taken out when the game comes to a 1v1 assassin Vs hot target

Reason I'm fine saying any of the above is because optimal assassin play actually helps the town right now because we are only the 2nd biggest threat. The 1st being their other assassin. If only 2 townies die tonight we probs lose, but equally it leaves both assassins in super tight spots to win over the other

I have a PM chain to share. It's long. Sorry, but I think it's important.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 11:13:03 AMNow, to bury the hatchet with you two: I think there is a high probability im actually a ward, in part because it's strange to me that NO one has pushed for my lynch. I feel like the hot target claim worked a bit too well. Here is my proposal, and I am open to suggestions for how best to do it: I start acting batshit crazy in the thread, and you two lead a full-court press for my lynch. What say you both to that?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 11:19:42 AMWhat are your plans for acting "batshit crazy"? :P It has to look believable overall (especially because, as you said, nobody has been pushing for your lynch at all). I think there's potential merit to the idea of seeing who (if anyone) suddenly jumps to your defense if you start getting votes on you, but if it's too clear that it's a ploy I don't think it'll end up working out and would just end up being a needless distraction.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 11:29:36 AMThat's part of what I'm asking you guys. Any suggestions?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 11:33:33 AM...you could go unnecessarily hard after Specs? There's always the chance we could go for the ol' "TZP's been acting weird in PMs" response (but then again that would likely make sense to be me OR Toby, but not both of us), but in that case it's easier to call that bluff.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 11:37:25 AMI'll wait to hear from Toby but I think something like this isn't a bad idea. Thanks BDS. If we decide to do this, let's try to start in the next several hours so we have time to receive and gauge reactions.

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 02:25:59 PMHey sorry I'm out tonight but yeah I think everyone thinks you're human at moment so it would be interesting how people reacted if you were caught in a lie or slipped in a way that we had no choice but to vote you

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 03:08:14 PMSo, idea:
1. TZP goes after Specs (maybe even voting for Specs), finding it weird that Specs was trying to figure out his hot target claim.
2. I respond, saying that it's weird that TZP has been coasting all game off his claim, and I feel like he's been using it as an opportunity to avoid suspicion.
3a. I potentially PM someone else and tell them I'm gonna put a "pressure vote" on TZP and ask them to back me up (suggesting this because I feel like it wouldn't make sense for me and Toby to be in agreement publicly).
OR
3b. After I express my "suspicion" against TZP (potentially also placing a vote), he suddenly flips around and votes for me (this has to be at a time when all three of us are around at the same time). Toby comes in and votes for TZP as a response.
4. We see how other people respond with two votes on TZP.

? ? ? ? ?

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 04:35:39 PMIs that believable I dunno I expect more of a scandal may be required for it to look like TZP is under pressure

If he can get 3 votes though would probably work regardless of the reasoning

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 26, 2023, 04:44:37 PMTHC PM'd me a little while ago, and I get the feeling he might be interested in placing a vote on TZP. After he responds to me I might try and suggest he place a pressure vote on TZP with my backing.

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 04:56:36 PMOkay I'm going to sleep but I can place a vote early tomorrow if it sounds convincing enough and we can see what happens

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 26, 2023, 07:21:54 PMSounds good. Full steam ahead.

Quote from: Toby on September 26, 2023, 11:52:18 PMI've went for another angle so I could lock my vote in as I'll be busy with work for the next 9 hours

Since TZPs hot target claim seems to have been dissected and multiple people have now said it could be false in topic I've used that but I've at least ended it in a question so if someone was looking to defend you they have an angle to take

What's the chances both you two are assassins and this is a waste of time :^)

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 05:53:28 AMmexican standoff but one person only has finger guns

I'll try to justify my vote in the thread, sort of a "I'm not sure how I feel agreeing with Toby, but after tunneling davy D0 I feel TZP deserves closer analysis."

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 12:36:19 PMBds are u able to get anyone else to vote ? It doesn't really work unless TZP gets a majority and is in danger

At moment I think A# seems very unbothered

I think Specs is honestly a strong assassin candidate with you being his ward. That would explain why he was openly saying that he thinks you're human for your hot target claim and wasn't afraid that what he was saying could give up ur attempt to deceive the wolves

Also explain why he was interested in getting peoples feelings on your claim in PM maybe to try push that you were human

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 12:57:54 PMMaybe THC? It's hard to tell. His latest message to me made it seems like he might be genuinely interested in voting TZP, but it's hard to tell with him.

Personally, I think A#'s making a big bluff. I think she's aware how many people have given some indication of being likely to vote for her, and her attempt to get on board the Toby suspicion train already backfired on her—and I don't think she has enough fight in her to try and candidly suggest another target herself. After her self-vote, I kinda wanna try voting for her and seeing if she cracks (though we really do need to know what's going on with the insta mechanics before I try that stunt).

 I still think Specs is reeling from being so thoroughly manipulated by TZP last game, but assassin Specs is something I've been considering too. I don't think it's likely though; he did seem fairly unbothered (to borrow your terminology) at TZP casually just having two votes on him all of a sudden.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 27, 2023, 01:06:19 PMToby, Kai just messaged me and told me insta is off for this game. You can safely vote me without getting rushed. Can you please reapply your vote to make it more convincing?

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 01:31:53 PMKai can you confirm in topic if insta is off ?

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 03:21:33 PMThe only player I think to be defending TZP is Specs

I just checked the PM I got from him day 0 and I am thrown off a little bit because it seems like he thinks TZP could be assassin. But it could be his way of trying to distance himself, it's risky though

He's suggesting TZP could be assassin, but in topic he doesn't seem to shed any bad light on TZP

Quote from: Toby on September 27, 2023, 04:30:23 PMI'm going to set my alarm I think for an hour before phase end to change my vote

I think I might go for A#, unless something else happens

She's not been useful at all and very chaotic which I am inclined to read as human, but could be an angsty assassin. At least if she's a human could be a ward. Don't see her being a hot target at all.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 27, 2023, 04:37:35 PMI still feel "first time wolf in over her head." This latest move from her, IMO, feels like she's finally starting to catch on to how to play as a wolf but hasn't quite got the execution down yet. In other words, she sees other people trying similar gambits and is going for a gambit to try and prove "see, I'm ok with being lynched, so I'm totally not a wolf!"

Now, why bring this up? Well, first, to give people an opportunity to see how Toby and BDS talk about other variables in private. More than that, though, this should demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that I am a regular human, and with A#'s death, it's a guarantee that I'm actually a ward. I was 100% prepared to go down with the ship last night, and only didn't change my vote to myself on a whim because I enjoy surviving to play this game and I had no reason to believe I would have any more chance of being a ward than A# did. But all good things must come to an end!

To whichever assassin had my name in your role PM: great job, thanks for playing, you stayed under the radar, and you have nads of brass for not panicking when I had nearly half the lobby voting for me. But you lost. Other assassin, if you think you know who your opposing assassin is, by all means take a shot in the dark and let me keep playing, but if you send in my name to be killed tonight, it's a guarantee that you're hitting the other assassin.

Both assassins are in a defect-defect prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, which is to say that it is a strictly dominant strategy for each one to try to hit the other assassin. Feel free to take a shot at your hot target, but know that your opponent is probably taking a shot at you. Your best hope is to kill the other assassin and hope that he kills your hot target while trying to nail you. That's the only way for you to win.

Humans, if that doesn't happen, we either win tonight, or we have a manhunt with two potential options tomorrow. I like those odds.

I feel like we should all just claim

assassins need to kill eachother if they want to win. They just got to hope while they kill their opponent their opponent wiffs somehow

I'm the red hot target, so not a ward or an assassin so dont waste your kill on me lol.

I actually don't even know the point of hot targets really other than being a unique human name, because the assassin needs to be alive to win the game anyway and they can always kill their hot target in a final stand

Feel like everyone should claim at this point, if you're human makes sense one ward is already revealed which guarantees one assassin dead so other ward reveal yourself and give the other assassin a  fair shot of winning too

Honestly, I'm not even sure what to expect at this point. I don't think claiming is all that great an idea, but I'll bite anyway. I'm a ward.

ok well as it stands one assassin needs to kill TZP and the other killl THC

And I guess they just hope that the other assassin is poet or something and forgets to send in their action

alright since there isn't really a reason not to do so now


I'm just going to send the logs

me:

QuoteI am a hot target. If you really are a hot target, you should know how to respond to this.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 27, 2023, 11:23:00 AMYeah, I figured you were at this point. Out of curiosity, who else have you told this?

Anyway, there is an operation going on in the main thread. I am not actually a hot target, I got the normal human role--in fact, I think there is a very high chance that I am a ward. Right now, I have conspired with Toby and BDS to cast votes on me in the main thread to see who holds out on voting for me. If anyone seems uncomfortable about the fact that people want me dead, there's a high probability that player is my corresponding assassin. So if you want to contribute to this and make it even more convincing, you could change your vote to me in the main thread and say something like "actually now that I think about it TZP is really suspicious". I think that's the best chance we have at catching an assassin this day phase, because if I am actually a ward, someone is going to get very uncomfortable when he or she sees 3 votes on me.

Thoughts?

Hey y'all, Im back. Gonna catch up on the last two days

Apologize for my absence; I've been spending most of the day moving boxes from one storage unit to another. I've been keeping up with the thread in the meantime, but haven't had the opportunity to post until now.

I'm claiming normal human, which means one of either TZP or THC is lying.

Worth noting is that I picked up on the fact that Poet slipped hot target D0. I told davy about my hunch because he asked (I fully intended to push his lynch, which ended up happening, and figured it would give assassin davy pause on pushing a Poet lynch if he thought it would be risky for him; plus, if he was an assassin and survived the day, he couldn't kill Poet without me knowing for sure it was him responsible) and TZP after he voted for Poet (which also means that assassin TZP could also not risk killing Poet as it would likely point back to him). I told TZP that I had told davy, which was extra insurance in case davy was an assassin and survived the day. Poet claiming to THC and apparently also TZP confirms my early hunch.

TZP's recent shenanigans seem to point in favor of him being the one who's telling the truth, but on the other hand:

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 28, 2023, 11:41:19 AMnads of brass

TZP sort of unintentionally put himself in a situation he couldn't control because Toby was offline after he made his vote and couldn't change it. I think he was relying on THC not voting for him, as I had told THC/Toby (as seen in the PM thread TZP posted) that it was uncertain THC would actually vote for TZP. There was always the chance that A# could have suddenly swapped off herself and onto a TZP vote, but TZP couldn't control that—and panicking about it would definitely set off the alarms, so his only hope would be that A# actually followed through with her threat to lynch herself (which did end up happening)

I fully believe his intention was to not make the situation so risky for himself, but IRL schedules worked against him.

Points against THC, on the other hand: he's been riding the "I'm probably a ward" train since he first showed up in the game, originally with his PM to me straight-up asking me if I was an assassin and he was my ward. It feels really unlikely and suspicious that he'd actually end up being a ward, and the fact that he's been pushing it so much since then just makes it even weirder. Also acting generally weird and suspicious.

Also worth noting is I don't think Specs has been online since before the phase change, meaning that if he's an assassin, he probably hasn't submitted a kill yet. I think Specs is pretty much confirmed as an assassin at this point, unless Toby is also lying and banking on the fact that there's a good chance Specs could just not come online before the end of the phase. Regardless of what role Specs is, him coming to the thread and claiming is likely to clear thing up to... some degree.


ninja'd
Specs is here, but not gonna modify what I already wrote before posting for posterity's sake.

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 28, 2023, 06:07:59 PMas I had told TZP/Toby (as seen in the PM thread TZP posted) that it was uncertain THC would actually vote for TZP.

Fixed. The PM chain was with TZP/Toby (and I also had an independent one free of Toby just in case Toby was an assassin, and to convey info I had already told TZP but not Toby). THC was not involved in group PM. :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 28, 2023, 06:07:59 PMWorth noting is that I picked up on the fact that Poet slipped hot target D0. I told davy about my hunch because he asked (I fully intended to push his lynch, which ended up happening, and figured it would give assassin davy pause on pushing a Poet lynch if he thought it would be risky for him; plus, if he was an assassin and survived the day, he couldn't kill Poet without me knowing for sure it was him responsible) and TZP after he voted for Poet (which also means that assassin TZP could also not risk killing Poet as it would likely point back to him). I told TZP that I had told davy, which was extra insurance in case davy was an assassin and survived the day. Poet claiming to THC and apparently also TZP confirms my early hunch.

bruh I've been played better than a fiddle

Quote from: The Musical Poet on September 28, 2023, 07:01:50 PMbruh I've been played better than a fiddle

My logic was this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436939#msg436939) and the fact that the one human role that could potentially leak info would be a hot target—I had faith that if you were an assassin, you would be much more careful to not say that out loud :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 28, 2023, 07:06:21 PMMy logic was this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12789.msg436939#msg436939) and the fact that the one human role that could potentially leak info would be a hot target—I had faith that if you were an assassin, you would be much more careful to not say that out loud :P

my fault for being careless :>

It's been two hours since Specs showed up in the thread. Less than 2 hours until the end of the phase... will we hear from Specs before the end of the phase?? The world may never know.

You bet! I'm a human (Ward).

THC, BDS, TZP, and myself all with the Ward claim.

Tonight will reveal a lot.

Lovely. So we know our two assassins are among those four (don't say "among us," don't say "among us"... resist the urge...)

Seems to me as if every phase cardflip has revealed a lot, for better or for worse.

Night all. It has been an honor.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 28, 2023, 09:16:33 PMNight all. It has been an honor.

o7

Darn my silly messed-up sleep schedule. I'm already tired but I just have to push myself a little further so I can see the results. The tension is too heavy!!!!!

Being on a work trip to Washington state worked out well for this game. 10:00 pacific time isn't too bad!

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on September 28, 2023, 09:25:58 PMBeing on a work trip to Washington state worked out well for this game. 10:00 pacific time isn't too bad!

If I were on my "normal" sleep schedule it'd be great. Unfortunately insomnia and other health issues (most recently it's been acid reflux and abdominal gas/bloating brought on by accidentally ingesting too much high-fiber food) always have a way of disrupting my sleep schedule at the most inconvenient times.

kai u BETTER update right on the hour :P

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 28, 2023, 09:29:29 PMIf I were on my "normal" sleep schedule it'd be great. Unfortunately insomnia and other health issues (most recently it's been acid reflux and abdominal gas/bloating brought on by accidentally ingesting too much high-fiber food) always have a way of disrupting my sleep schedule at the most inconvenient times.

kai u BETTER update right on the hour :P

gotchu fam  8)

ayo

Toby has died. They were the Red Assassin's Hot Target, aligned with the Town.

ThatHiddenCharacter has died. They were the Red Assassin's Ward, aligned with the Town.

BlackDragonSlayer has failed his mission, and thus absconds with shame. He was the Red Assassin.

Living Players

TheZeldaPianist
SpecsFlyer17
The Musical Poet

It is now Day 2. Day 2 will end 11:59PM, 30 September 2023, US Central.

I TRUSTED YOU, BLUEY

give 'em hell, bluey

I was BDS' ward! Gahdammit!

GG all

TZP

Also Toby had fantastic reads this game

TZP


so long fools


Also, I knew my hunch was right. I was extremely suspicious of BDS, but I didn't have any info over him besides the fact that he just happened to not showcase any information about himself.

Make sure to not edit posts in game Poet—very much against the rules

ah sorry

Dishonorable Surrender

I'll lay down my rifle because this is a no win scenario. So maybe not dishonorable.

Hot target will vote for either the Assassin or Ward, and the Ward will just vote for whoever had the Hot Targets vote. The Ward's self-destruct win condition makes this a doomed cause for the Assassin.

If the Hot Target votes for the Assassin, the Ward will vote for the Assassin. If the Hot Target votes for the Ward, the Ward will vote for themself.

Good game yall!

Kai, can we end the phase early since nothing is going to happen and all remaining players are on the same page?

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 29, 2023, 11:56:35 AMKai, can we end the phase early since nothing is going to happen and all remaining players are on the same page?

Quite.

–

TheZeldaPianist275, the Blue Assassin's Ward, commits assisted Reichenbach Falls (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Final_Problem).

SpecsFlyer, the Blue Assassin, curses his fate as he falls to his family-friendly death.

TWG CXVI has ended in a Town victory!

BTS info to come.